In the design and development of rubber products, it is important to evaluate the contact load dependency of the friction coefficient. In particular, since the pressure distribution varies depending on the dimensions of sliding bodies and the pattern of the contact surface, a simplified and accurate evaluation method that can take these influences into account is desired. In this study, we proposed a prediction method for the adhesive friction between rubber specimens of arbitrary shapes with arbitrary roughness and a smooth hard surface, by combining the: (1) friction theory considering the influence of roughness; (2) basic friction test; and (3) finite element analysis. Further, we verified the effectiveness of the proposed method by comparing the predicted results with the measurement results of friction between a hemispherical PDMS specimen and a PMMA flat plate and between a PDMS block specimen with a grooved surface and a flat prism. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the contact load dependency of the friction coefficient is reasonably good.