Significant Weather Events Research Articles

Assessing Vulnerability and Prioritization of Cultural Assets for Climate Change Planning in Collier County, Southwest Florida

Cultural resources are often overlooked in climate change and resiliency planning, despite them being integral to community identity and the restoration of a sense of normalcy after significant weather events. This vulnerability assessment demonstrates how cultural resources can be included in planning efforts, and how they can be prioritized based on specific criteria. To complete this assessment, a working group with local land managers and cultural resource professionals was formed, and members employed a sophisticated Geo Tool, ACUNE (Adaptation of Coastal Urban and Natural Ecosystems) for climate adaptation, to predict how cultural resources throughout Collier County, Florida, would be impacted in two specific climate scenarios. The working group selected ten significant sites in the county and used ACUNE to prioritize action at these sites, using a matrix of hazard exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and the environmental, social, and economic consequences of the loss of these sites. Based on the results of our case study vulnerability assessment of cultural resources in Collier County, the next decade (2020 to 2030) has the potential to increase the number of sites at risk of storm flooding from 267 to 318, alerting managers that immediate action is needed for the sites of greatest value. The analysis of 10 case study sites is presented to demonstrate an approach for land managers and other cultural resource professionals to prioritize action at their own sites.

Attenuation of the unsteady loading on a high-rise building using top-surface open-loop control

With the severity and frequency of significant weather events increasing, methods for alleviating unsteady wind loading for high-rise buildings are gaining interest. This study numerically investigates the three-dimensional flow structures around a canonical high-rise building immersed in an atmospheric boundary layer at different oncoming wind angles, using wall-resolved large eddy simulations. A synthetic jet located on the top surface is used as open-loop active actuation with the aim of suppressing the building's side-force fluctuations when exposed to oncoming wind variations. Three different frequencies of jet forcing are considered, all half an order of magnitude larger than the vortex shedding frequency. The behaviour of the synthetic jet and its effect on the building's unsteady side force, time-averaged flow fields and unsteady flow structures are investigated numerically. The synthetic jet actuation is found to reduce the side-force fluctuation of the building, enhance the downwash flow and successfully attenuate the antisymmetric vortex shedding. This was achieved to different extents across the range of oncoming wind angles considered and may motivate future attempts to explore experimental active control strategies for attenuation of unsteady wind loading.

Energy and Climate Change Issues Around CSUDH

Climate change is posing significant challenges to California’s energy sector. Extreme weather events (heat and cold) may pressure existing infrastructure. Many studies have indicated that extreme climate events would impact the energy system by affecting peak electricity demand. However, very few studies have been conducted to understand how disadvantaged communities (DACs) will be impacted. Because of unequal access to energy infrastructure (electricity generation and battery storage), DACs are more vulnerable to power outages due to the rising number of significant weather events caused by climate change. To address the issue of how DACs are disproportionately affected by climate change-related energy issues, we used DACs, infrastructure, and climate data. We identified the most vulnerable communities associated with climate change-related energy issues in areas around California State University Dominguez Hills (CSUDH). This study’s findings will support building the resilience of energy infrastructure to climate change and minimize the energy burden on DACs.

Sub-Seasonal Prediction of Sea-Gale Processes in the Yangtze River Estuary of China

The sea-gale process (SGP) is a significant and disastrous weather event for the marine industry. However, the sub-seasonal predictability of SGP remains unclear. In this study, we investigate the influence of low-frequency oscillation on SGP in the Yangtze River estuary from November to April, and its implications for sub-seasonal prediction. We noted that SGPs have a close relationship with the 10~30 day low-frequency component of the 10-m wind speed in the Yangtze River estuary, and typically occur during the peak phase of the low-frequency oscillation. The 10~30 day low-frequency oscillation of 10-m wind was found to be linked to the eastward propagation of extratropical Rossby waves from the North Atlantic across Europe to East Asia. This Rossby wave leads to the low-frequency oscillation of the Siberian high pressure and Japan Sea low pressure, which is indicative of the 10~30 day low-frequency oscillations of the 10-m wind speed in the Yangtze River Estuary. A sea-gale process index (SGPI) was constructed based on the low-frequency oscillation of the Siberian high and the Japan Sea low in order to predict SGPs at the sub-seasonal time scale. Hindcast and real-time forecasts showed that 2/3 of SGPs can be predicted with a leading time of 10~30 days, and that good sub-seasonal predictions of SGPs are connected with strong low-frequency oscillations at the initial forecast time. Therefore, SGPI can be adopted for the sub-seasonal prediction of SGPs in the Yangtze River Estuary.

Modeling and Forecasting Ionospheric foF2 Variation in the Low Latitude Region during Low and High Solar Activity Years

Prediction of ionospheric parameters, such as ionospheric F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) at low latitude regions is of significant interest in understanding ionospheric variation effects on high-frequency communication and global navigation satellite system. Currently, deep learning algorithms have made a striking accomplishment in capturing ionospheric variability. In this paper, we use the state-of-the-art hybrid neural network combined with a quantile mechanism to predict foF2 parameter variations under low and high solar activity years (solar cycle-24) and space weather events. The hybrid neural network is composed of a convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM), in which CNN and BiLSTM networks extracted spatial and temporal features of ionospheric variation, respectively. The proposed method was trained and tested on 5 years (2009–2014) of ionospheric foF2 observation data from Advanced Digital Ionosonde located in Brisbane, Australia (27°53′S, 152°92′E). It is evident from the results that the proposed model performs better than International Reference Ionosphere 2016 (IRI-2016), long short-term memory (LSTM), and BiLSTM ionospheric prediction models. The proposed model extensively captured the variation in ionospheric foF2 feature, and better predicted it under two significant space weather events (29 September 2011 and 22 July 2012).

Frost Conditions Due to Climate Change in South-Eastern Europe via a High-Spatiotemporal-Resolution Dataset

Frost incidents comprise significant extreme weather events owing to climate change, possibly endangering the agricultural sector of the already impacted south-eastern European area. Thus, the comprehensive evaluation of the frost conditions under the climate regime for eleven countries was conducted by calculating relevant frost agroclimatic indicators under three time horizons (1985 to 2015, 2005 to 2035 and 2015 to 2045). The Frost Days (FD), Free of Frost Days (FFD), Last Spring Frost (LSF) and First Autumn Frost (FAF) were estimated daily over a grid of 25 × 25 km. We demonstrated that the FD will be reduced according to the balanced A1B emissions scenario over the entire examined area with the mountainous and continental regions being most affected. From 2005 to 2035, a higher LSF reduction is expected over Greece and Albania and the earlier FAF in high altitude areas. All examined regions are projected to face delayed FAF, from 2015 to 2045. In general, all countries will face an increase in the growing season duration owing to the increase of the FFD.

Development in a state of climate change: an Australian case study of government response

Purpose This research seeks to understand the potential impact to investors from government responses to climate change risk, as reflected in changes to planning processes made after significant weather events.Design/methodology/approach The research examines the land planning responses within a select local government authority (“LGA”) area following four significant weather events, in order to identify any changes made, and the impact on future development proposals. The LGA selected is the Central Coast Council, which is a coastal LGA in the Australian State of New South Wales. The research engaged with the publicly accessible records available on the Central Coast Council, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and other websites; and extant literature.Findings The research reveals that some adjustments were made by the Central Coast Council, and or the State government, to relevant laws, policies and processes following these events. These changes, however, tended to focus on imposing additional requirements on future development applications, rather than on requiring changes to current structures, or prohibiting further development works.Research limitations/implications The research has three limitations: (1) land law in Australia varies, as each State and Territory, and LGA, has specific laws, policies and processes; (2) as laws and policies are subject to change, it was necessary to select points in time at which to engage with those laws and processes; and (3) COVID-19's impact on domestic Australian travel [the authors could not travel interstate] meant only documents available on the Internet were considered, however, not all documents relating to development; or changes to laws and processes were easily accessible online. As the research focussed on one case study area, this may limit the applicability of the results to other areas. However, as extreme events are international, the related issues are a concern in all areas.Practical implications This research confirms the results of other extant research, which observed that some risks cannot be properly mitigated, such that any development in an at-risk area remains at risk. It also identifies that more current, accurate and publicly accessible data are required to enable investors to more easily and accurately identify all risks affecting a property.Originality/value The research provides a snapshot of one LGA's response to the physical risks arising from climate change events. As investors and other organisations integrate and build up their analysis of climate risks to their portfolios and organisations, governments become more aware of the long-term effects of climate change and consistently with extant research; this research indicates that a greater awareness is required of current risks and action to manage the short-term effects and cost challenges, in addition to the long-term adaptation requirements.

Validation and Utility of Satellite Retrievals of Atmospheric Profiles in Detecting and Monitoring Significant Weather Events

Abstract Infrared and microwave sounder measurements from polar-orbiting satellites are used to retrieve profiles of temperature, water vapor, and trace gases utilizing a suite of algorithms called the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS). Meteorologists operationally use the retrievals similar to radiosonde measurements to assess atmospheric stability and aid them in issuing forecasts and severe weather warnings. Measurements of trace gases by NUCAPS enable detection, tracking, and monitoring of greenhouse gases and emissions from fires that impact air quality. During the polar winters, when ultraviolet measurements of ozone are not possible, absorption features in the infrared spectrum of the sounders enable the assessment of ozone concentration in the stratosphere. These retrievals are used as inputs to monitor the ozone hole over Antarctica. This article illustrates the utility of NUCAPS atmospheric profile retrievals in assessing meteorological events using several examples of severe thunderstorms, tropical cyclones, fires, and ozone maps.

Wildfires Down Under: Impacts and Mitigation Strategies for Australian Electricity Grids

Australia, &#x201C;The Land of Plenty,&#x201D; is known for its resources and particularly energy resources, with vast potential to power its energy system from sun and wind. Unfortunately, the &#x201C;plenty&#x201D; of Australia also includes significant extreme weather events. Among others, wildfires (known as <i>bushfires</i> in Australia) are an important hazard type that impacts the environment and human society, including engineering systems such as the power system.

A study of tropical cyclone impact on the power distribution grid in South Korea for estimating damage

Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (TC) are considered the most significant weather events causing severe damage to the power distribution grid. However, few or no studies have been performed at the perspectives of the power system although it is necessary, but a relevant study has recently received attention in South Korea. Accordingly, the motivation of this paper addresses the need to present a study of the impact of TCs, focusing on the analysis and the estimation of TC-induced damage. The study uses three sets of historical data: TC data, power distribution grid damage data, and local weather data from 2008 to 2018. Using these data, first, this paper provides an overview of the damage characteristics to understand power system damage. TC, local weather, and TC-induced damage data are analyzed to find their correlated characteristic. Then, TCs are classified by their track patterns associated with the damage characteristic. The importance of TC track is proved by the significance test and comparing the damages by TC tracks. Furthermore, the underlying key hazard variables (i.e., TC and local weather variables) associated with TC-induced damages are identified. Lastly, this paper proposes a multi-stage damage estimation methodology to evaluate the intensity of TC-induced damages using identified major TCs and local weather variables as well as TC tracking information. Therefore, this study will provide useful insights to assess TC-induced damages from the power system perspective in South Korea.

Multiscale Analysis of the 1 June 2011 Northeast U.S. Severe Weather Outbreak and Associated Springfield, Massachusetts Tornado

On 1 June 2011, the 12th killer tornado in New England since 1950 tracked 63 km (39 mi) from Westfield to Charlton, MA resulting in 3 fatalities, 200 injuries, and EF3 damage. At least fourteen supercells produced six confirmed tornadoes and six hail reports ≥7 cm (≥2.75 in) in diameter across eastern New York and New England. This paper takes a multiscale look at meteorological factors contributing to this event. The synoptic pattern evolution closely resembles the composite mean shown by Banacos and Ekster (2010) for significant severe weather events in the northeast United States associated with an elevated mixed layer (EML). The presence of an EML and rich boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints 20-22oC) supported surface-based CAPE &gt;4000 J kg-1 by early afternoon on 1 June. A strengthening prefrontal trough within the moist and unstable boundary layer, together with increasing low and deep-layer shear created an environment favorable for tornadic supercells. In particular, storms moved into an environment with increasing values of 0-1-km AGL bulk shear, increasing storm relative helicity, and lower lifted condensation level heights. Values of these parameters were largely consistent with significant-tornado occurrence in proximity studies. Tornadic signatures in WSR-88D and experimental CASA 3-cm dual-polarization radar data are described, in addition to a remarkable three-body scatter spike associated with lofted debris near peak apparent intensity of the EF3 tornado.

Meteorological conditions and thermal comfort during the athletic events of the olympic games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016.

This work is taken up to evaluate the relationship between the thermal comfort of spectators and athletes and the prevailing meteorological conditions during Rio 2016 Olympic Games. Empirical and physiological thermal comfort indices are calculated from data collected from an automatic weather station installed near the Olympic Stadium and interviews with the spectators. The study period was marked by a gradual rise in air temperature and by the occurrence of two significant weather events associated with wind gusts, which caused disturbances in some areas of the competitions. ET and NET were below the air temperature, indicating that both humidity and wind contributed to the reduction of the human-biometeorological indices. Majority of the interviewed persons reported comfortable sensation and weather conditions. These perceptions corroborate results of the thermal comfort indices calculated for these resting spectators. The comfort indices calculated for the athletes with high level of physical activity showed that PET estimated hotter thermal sensation those for the individuals at rest, indicating that the physical type of a person may strongly influence the thermal sensation and comfort during intense physical activity. Increasing trend observed in all the indices of human thermal comfort during the period of study shows consistency among them.

A Simulation Framework to Support the Design and Evaluation of Adaptive Scanning for Phased-Array Weather Radars

AbstractWe propose a simulation framework that can be used to design and evaluate the performance of adaptive scanning algorithms on different phased-array weather radar designs. The simulator is proposed as tool to 1) compare the performance of different adaptive scanning algorithms on the same weather event, 2) evaluate the performance of a given adaptive scanning algorithm on several weather events, and 3) evaluate the performance of a given adaptive scanning algorithm on a given weather event using different radar designs. We illustrate the capabilities of the proposed framework to design and evaluate the performance of adaptive algorithms aimed at reducing the update time using adaptive scanning. The example concept of operations is based on a fast low-fidelity surveillance scan and a high-fidelity adaptive scan. The flexibility of the proposed simulation framework is tested using two phased-array-radar designs and three complementary adaptive scanning algorithms: focused observations, beam clustering, and dwell tailoring. Based on a significant weather event observed by an operational NEXRAD radar, our experimental results consist of radar data that were simulated as if the same event had been observed by arbitrary combinations of radar systems and adaptive scanning configurations. Results show that simulated fields of radar data capture the main data-quality impacts from the use of adaptive scanning and can be used to obtain quantitative metrics and for qualitative comparison and evaluation by forecasters. That is, the proposed simulator could provide an effective interface with meteorologists and could support the development of concepts of operations that are based on adaptive scanning to meet the evolutionary observational needs of the U.S. National Weather Service.

Concept Drift Detection in Data Stream Clustering and its Application on Weather Data

This article presents a stream mining framework to cluster the data stream and monitor its evolution. Even though concept drift is expected to be present in data streams, explicit drift detection is rarely done in stream clustering algorithms. The proposed framework is capable of explicit concept drift detection and cluster evolution analysis. Concept drift is caused by the changes in data distribution over time. Relationship between concept drift and the occurrence of physical events has been studied by applying the framework on the weather data stream. Experiments led to the conclusion that the concept drift accompanied by a change in the number of clusters indicates a significant weather event. This kind of online monitoring and its results can be utilized in weather forecasting systems in various ways. Weather data streams produced by automatic weather stations (AWS) are used to conduct this study.

Mobile Infrastructure for Monitoring, Modeling, and Forecasting of Coastal Weather Events. Phase I: Building the Smart Drifter

Our goal is to address a critical need to improve monitoring and forecasting of storm-induced coastal flooding (i.e., storm surge). The fundamental element of our approach is a new class of smart drifter—low-cost, rapidly deployable sensors used to collect surge information in advance of, during, and following significant weather events. These devices, each a bit larger than a tennis ball, will be deployed in advance of oncoming storms. The devices will log surge information used for post processing. In this paper, we present the Phase I of the project: the design and development of the smart drifter.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Food System in Toronto

As part of its Climate Change and Health Strategy, in 2017, Toronto Public Health engaged stakeholders from across the food system to complete a high-level vulnerability assessment of the impact of climate change on the food system in Toronto. Using the Ontario Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Guidelines, the City of Toronto’s High-Level Risk Assessment Tool, and a strategic framework developed by the Initiative for a Competitive Inner City, Toronto Public Health identified the most significant extreme weather event risks to food processing, distribution and access in Toronto. Risks associated with three extreme weather events that are the most likely to occur in Toronto due to climate change were analyzed: significant rain and flooding, an extended heat wave, and a major winter ice storm. The analysis finds that while extreme weather events could potentially disrupt Toronto’s food supply, the current risk of an extended, widespread food supply disruption is relatively low. However, the findings highlight that a concerted effort across the food system, including electrical and fuel providers, is needed to address other key vulnerabilities that could impact food access, especially for vulnerable populations. Interruptions to electricity will have food access and food safety impacts, while interruptions to the transportation network and fuel will have food distribution and access impacts. Actions to mitigate these risks could include addressing food access vulnerabilities through ongoing city-wide strategies and integrating food access into the City’s emergency response planning. The next steps will include engaging with multiple partners across the city to understand and strengthen the “last mile” of food distribution and develop community food resilience action plans for vulnerable neighbourhoods.

Finding the Positive in the Negative

ABSTRACTThe impact of natural disasters and climate change on archaeological resources has garnered much recent attention, with impacts of sea level rise and coastal flooding being the two most often cited issues. However, damage caused by flooding of interior areas and waterways has received less consideration. In this article, we present a case study of a collaborative emergency response to a significant weather event and the ensuing impacts on archaeological resources. Our project, located in Middle Tennessee, documented severe erosion and subsequent anthropogenic disturbances to ancient Native American sites following massive flooding of the Cumberland River in 2010. While striving to mitigate this damage via systematic collection of imperiled archaeological samples, we were also able to strengthen partnerships among professional archaeologists working in different arenas (academia, state and federal agencies) and the avocational archaeological community. As these types of weather-related events become more common, published case studies of response efforts will be crucial in archaeological site management, planning, and disaster response.

Investigating the foundations of spatial thinking in meteorology

ABSTRACTA survey with nine meteorological charts, maps, and images from a 2015 significant weather event was administered to meteorologists (N = 93) to identify which spatial thinking skills they report using with each chart, map, and image. Results reveal high reported use of mental animation (74.6%), disembedding (72.4%), and perspective taking (71.6%) with the meteorological charts, maps, and images. Lower rates accompany reported use of object location memory, visual penetrative ability, and mental rotation, contrasting with the prominence of these skills in geology. Analysis of response patterns reveals significant independence between student and professional groups. The majority (70.2%) of student meteorologists reported they do not use mental animation when working with a surface analysis chart; however, 67.9% of professional meteorologists reported that they do. This striking finding likely results from professionals’ extensive mental catalogs of weather scenarios that allow predicting future scenarios, which student meteorologists lack. Similarly, student meteorologists reported using disembedding with the surface analysis chart at much lower rates (56.8%) than professional meteorologists (82.1%), suggesting that students focus on interpreting the chart's superficial features and less on disembedding deeper patterns. These results provide intriguing contrasts to comparable investigations in geologic thinking, contribute to a growing understanding of the application of spatial skills in STEM, and will inform further investigation into spatial thinking in meteorology.

Variations in Some Climatological Characteristics at the Aerodromes of the Russian Federation in 2001–2015

The variations in several climatological characteristics are studied on the basis of hourly (half-hourly) meteorological terminal observations at 51 aerodromes of the Russian Federation in 2001–2015. For every aerodrome extreme temperature, wind speed and gusts, and QNH are analyzed for the above period. Using data for three consecutive 5-year periods, variations in the number of days with temperature above 30°C or below -30°C, with wind speed of ≥10 m/s and gusts of ≥15 m/s are considered. The occurrence frequency of significant weather events affecting the takeoff and landing (fog, blizzard, freezing precipitation, thunderstorm) is investigated. The results for aerodromes with positive or negative trends in the occurrence frequency of weather phenomena in 2001–2015 are presented.

In this issue of Weather

We begin our April issue with a paper describing the developments and effects of storm ‘Katie’, which brought significant effects to the United Kingdom on Easter Monday, 2015. In ‘Storm Katie – Rapid cyclogenesis and damaging winds of Easter Monday 2016’ on p. 103, Steven Ramsdale and Jason Kelly describe the meteorological developments that developed this low‐pressure system, the uncertainties associated with its development, the warnings issued and the damage caused, in part limited by its presence on a Bank Holiday.On p. 109, Colin Clark describes a flood 112 years ago in ‘The storm and flood of 13 May 1906 at Mells, Somerset, UK’ Dr Clark discusses the significance of the flood and its possible return period using synoptic charts of the time and descriptions published in local newspapers immediately following the event, emphasising our need to know more about floods in history.One of the least explored parts of the Middle East is the Empty Quarter. In the 1940s and 50s, the English explorer and writer Wilfred Thesiger crossed this area of extreme aridity. His discoveries and travels are described by Michael de Villiers in ‘Thesiger's weather in the Arabian Peninsula’ on p. 120.On p. 123, we present Iain Cameron and Adam Watson's annual review of the survival of snow on Scottish mountains. The overall warmth of last year is reflected in this year's title: ‘No Scottish snow patches survive until winter 2017/2018’.Weather and climate have a significant effect on human life and this journal often describes significant weather events, especially those that have affected Britain. But the local variability of weather may arguably present a more significant effect – not least, in the Developing World. Many factors affect school attendance, but weather and climate, including drought, rainstorms and dust pose important challenges, sometimes because of the secondary effects. Joseph Adejuwon discusses these effects in the Sahel zone in ‘Climate variability and the dichotomy in male–female school attendance: a case study of Zamfara State in semi‐arid Nigeria’ on p. 125.