Significant Trend Research Articles

Historical and future health burden attributable to PM2.5 exposure in China

PM2.5 is one of the major pollutants in China and poses threats to human health. To better estimate the health burden caused by long-term PM2.5 exposure, we use PM2.5 data from high-resolution TAP (Tracking Air Pollution in China) database and CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models to quantify premature mortalities attributed to PM2.5 pollution in China during the historical (2001–2019) and future (2030, 2045 and 2060) periods. Sensitivity experiments are also designed to explore the respective impacts of baseline mortality, population size, age structure, and PM2.5 concentration on health burden. Results show that population-weighted PM2.5 concentration in China over the last 19 years is 57.5 μg m−3, significantly higher than the unweighted value of 33.4 μg m−3. The national average premature mortalities attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5 during 2001–2019 are 2363 (95%CI: 1991–2712) thousand, with severe health damage over Central China (454 (95%CI: 384–519) thousand), North China Plain (442 (95%CI: 375–503) thousand), and Yangtze River Delta (406 (95%CI: 343–465) thousand). The significant increase in premature mortalities in China during 2001–2005 (+213 thousand yr−1) is attributed to the growth in population size and the exacerbation of PM2.5 pollution, while the decrease in premature mortalities during 2013–2019 (−59 thousand yr−1) is primarily owing to the improvement in PM2.5 air quality. Future improvements in medical care and decreases in PM2.5 concentrations will help to alleviate the health burden in China. However, compared to 2019, national premature mortalities are projected to increase, especially during 2030–2060 with significant trends of +116∼+181 thousand yr−1 under different scenarios. The severe aging population in the future is the primary factor contributing to the increased health risks. In conclusion, severe PM2.5 pollution in China during the last 19 years has resulted in a large number of premature deaths, which will be further aggravated by population aging in the future. Therefore, it is imperative to implement more stringent air quality control measures to mitigate future health hazards associated with PM2.5 pollution.

Variation of Satellite-Based Suspended Sediment Concentration in the Ganges–Brahmaputra Estuary from 1990 to 2020

The Ganges–Brahmaputra estuary, located in the northern Bay of Bengal, is situated within the largest delta in the world. This river basin features a complex river system, a dense population, and significant variation in watershed vegetation cover. Human activities have significantly impacted the concentration of total suspended matter (TSM) in the estuary and the ecological environment of the adjacent bay. In this study, we utilised the Landsat series of satellite remote sensing data from 1990 to 2020 for TSM retrieval. We applied an atmospheric correction algorithm based on the general purpose exact Rayleigh scattering look-up-table (LUT) and the shortwave-infrared (SWIR) bands extrapolation to Landsat L1 products to obtain high-precision remote sensing reflectance. In conjunction with the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, and discharge data, we analysed the variation and influencing mechanisms of TSM in the Ganges–Brahmaputra estuary and its surrounding areas. We revealed notable seasonal variation in TSM in the estuary, with higher concentrations during the wet season (May–October) compared to the dry season (the rest of the year). Over the period from 1990 to 2020, the NDVI in the watershed exhibited a significant upward trend. The outer estuarine regions of the Hooghly River and Meghna River displayed significant decreases in TSM, whereas the Baleswar River, which flows through mangrove areas, showed no significant trend in TSM. The declining trend in TSM was mainly attributed to land-use changes and anthropogenic activities, including the construction of embankments, dams, and mangrove conservation efforts, rather than to runoff and precipitation. Surface sediment concentration and chlorophyll in the northern Bay of Bengal exhibited slight increases, which means the limited influence of terrestrial inputs on long-term change in surface sediment concentration and chlorophyll in the northern Bay of Bengal. This study emphasises the impact of human activities on the river–estuary–coast continuum and sheds light on future sustainable management.

Advances in Studies on Heavy Metals in Urban Soil: A Bibliometric Analysis

Recent advancements in urban economies and population growth have led to an escalation in urban soil heavy metal pollution, thereby posing significant threats to human life and health. This paper presents a comprehensive bibliometric analysis, detailing the developmental trajectory, research hotspots, and emerging trends in the field of urban soil heavy metal pollution research. Utilizing the CiteSpace and VOSviewer software tools, we conducted an analysis of 1247 articles sourced from the Web of Science Core Collection Database (WoSCC) spanning the period from 2000 to 2022. Our analysis revealed a significant upward trend in the number of publications during the period 2000–2022, a trend expected to persist. Ahmad Kafeel, Khan Zafar Iqbal, and Huang Biao emerged as the leading authors in this domain. The journal, Science of the Total Environment, held the most influence, while China led in the number of publications, with the Chinese Academy of Sciences as the foremost contributor. The research predominantly focused on source apportionment of urban soil heavy metal pollution, pollution risk assessment, and the application of environmental magnetism. Future research priorities include assessing the human health risks from diverse sources of heavy metal pollution, a key aspect of ensuring urban safety and soil health. Our findings delineate the evolutionary trajectory of urban soil heavy metal pollution research over the past two decades and underscore the viability of employing a dynamic bibliometric approach to investigate this research discipline.

Trends in Opioid Use during Hospitalization following Revision Total Hip Arthroplasty from 2016 to 2021

AbstractThough opioids can be very effective for postoperative pain management after revision total hip arthroplasty (rTHA), many physicians have made an effort to decrease usage of these medications by focusing on alternative pain management strategies to reduce opioid dependence and unwanted side effects. This study sought to investigate trends in opioid consumption during hospitalization following rTHA from 2016 to 2021. We retrospectively reviewed all patients who received rTHA from January 2016 to April 2021. Baseline demographic variables including age, gender, race, body mass index, and American Society of Anesthesiologists classification were recorded. Additional information including patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), postoperative outcomes, dosage, and type of opioid medication prescribed postoperatively were also collected. Opioid dosage and type were converted to milligram morphine equivalents (MMEs) per day of hospitalization and compared across the 6 years studied. Linear regression as well as t-tests were utilized to determine significant trends in MME consumption over time. In total, 1,096 patients met inclusion and exclusion criteria. The greatest daily average opioid consumption per patient was in 2017 (61.6 ± 155.4 MME per day) and the lowest was in 2021 (31.8 ± 105.8 MME per day). Linear regression analysis detected a downward trend of 4.97 MME per day each year, though these results were not statistically significant (R 2: 0.444, p = 0.089). t-Test analysis, however, did reveal a significant decrease in opioid consumption in the postprotocol cohort (38.41 ± 90.5 vs. 52.18 ± 120.2; p = 0.034). There was a significant increase in preoperative Hip Disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, Joint Replacement scores (p = 0.007) over time as well as a significant decrease in preoperative visual analog scale pain scores (p = 0.012). The results of this study show that opioid consumption in 2021 was lower than in 2016 and 2017. This result emphasizes the effectiveness of protocols limiting opioid usage during hospitalization following rTHA. Moreover, the relatively consistent patient-reported outcome scores over time demonstrate that this decrease in opioid consumption per year does not impact patient-reported outcomes and satisfaction.

Financial performance of Indonesia’s consumer goods companies before and during the Covid-19 Pandemic

This research was conducted due to the significant trend of declining and unstable performance of stock trading in the consumer goods sector during the Covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is to compare the effects of ROA, ROE, NPM, and DER on stock price before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The secondary data were used and collected through document study. Non-probability sampling was conducted using purposive sampling technique. This research employs a quantitative method and the data were analyzed by smartPLS 3.2.9 program. The results of the study show that ROA has a positive and significant influence on stock price both before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, ROE and NPM has positive and significant effects on stock price before the Covid-19 pandemic. However, ROE and NPM do not have significant effects on stock price during the Covid-19 pandemic. Similarly, DER does not show a significant effect on stock price both before and during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Analysis of temperature and precipitation series of Hirfanli Dam Basin by Mann Kendall, Spearman’s Rho and Innovative Trend Analysis

In this study long-term trend analysis of precipitation and temperature series are determined in the Hirfanli dam basin of Turkey. Data is obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service for the period of 1968 to 2017 for Gemerek, Kayseri, Kirsehir, Nevsehir, Sivas and Zara. Mann-Kendall, Spearman's Rho and Innovative Trend Analysis are used for trend analysis with 95% confidence levels. According to the results of the temperature series upward trend were determined. The results of all methods are similar but increasing significant trends were determined by Mann Kendall and Spearman's Rho except Zara. According to the precipitation series results, with decreasing trends in Gemerek, Kirsehir, Nevsehir and Zara, increasing trends were determined in Kayseri and Sivas. The results of Mann Kendall and Spearman's Rho methods show parallelism with each other. Contrary to other methods, Innovative Trend Analysis determined a decreasing trend in Kayseri. As a result of the analysis, the trends in the precipitation series are not significant at the 95% confidence level. In addition to statistical analyzes, evaluations were made in terms of integrated disaster management for drought disaster in the basin with arid climate characteristics.

Equilibrium points and their stability of COVID-19 in US

This study aims to develop an advanced mathematic model and investigate when and how will the COVID-19 in the US be evolved to endemic. We employed a nonlinear ordinary differential equations-based model to simulate COVID-19 transmission dynamics, factoring in vaccination efforts. Multi-stability analysis was performed on daily new infection data from January 12, 2021 to December 12, 2022 across 50 states in the US. Key indices such as eigenvalues and the basic reproduction number were utilized to evaluate stability and investigate how the pandemic COVD-19 will evolve to endemic in the US. The transmissional, recovery, vaccination rates, vaccination effectiveness, eigenvalues and reproduction numbers (R0\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${R}_{0}$$\\end{document} and R0end\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${R}_{0}^{end}$$\\end{document}) in the endemic equilibrium point were estimated. The stability attractor regions for these parameters were identified and ranked. Our multi-stability analysis revealed that while the endemic equilibrium points in the 50 states remain unstable, there is a significant trend towards stable endemicity in the US. The study's stability analysis, coupled with observed epidemiological waves in the US, suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic may not conclude with the virus's eradication. Nevertheless, the virus is gradually becoming endemic. Effectively strategizing vaccine distribution is pivotal for this transition.

Long-term trend of near-surface air temperature lapse rate over the Chinese mainland during 1961-2018

The near-surface air temperature lapse rate (SATLR) is a result of surface energy balance, and the long-term trend of SATLR is linked to elevation-dependent warming (EDW). The long-term trend of SATLR in China’s mainland was examined in the present study. It was found that the regional average values of annual, autumn, and winter SATLR anomalies in Tmean, Tmax, and Tmin decreased significantly during the period of 1961-2018. In terms of spatial distribution, most of the annual SATLR trends in Tmean across China’s mainland are negative. In spring, positive SATLR trends in Tmean are widespread in the northern mountainous areas of China, while in winter, strong negative trends are found in some areas of the central and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Most of the negative annual SATLR trends in Tmax occur in the central part of China, but in the southwestern part of China for Tmin. Widespread negative SATLR trends in Tmin are usually found in winter, especially in the Hengduan Mountains of Southwestern China and the eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau. The significant positive SATLR trends in Tmax are observed in spring, mostly distributed in northern mountainous areas. In the context of global and regional warming, the long-term trend of SATLR has the potential to detect differences in altitude responses to climate change on a small spatial scale, and to explore the local effect of EDW.

Research on the Coupling Co-ordination between Quality of County-Level New Urbanization and Ecosystem Service Value in Shaanxi Province

Rapid urbanization has significantly impacted the structure of ecosystem services, accelerating the pressure on natural resources and ecological space. The clarification of the interdependent relationship between new-type urbanization (NTU) and ecosystem services (ESs) has contributed to ecological conservation and high-quality co-ordinated development, in contrast to traditional urbanization. This study focuses on the counties in Shaanxi Province as the research subjects, develops a new urbanization evaluation model for county-level areas, and utilizes Section data at the county level in Shaanxi Province for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. (To analyze land cover change, we selected four data periods: 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, to capture significant spatial trends.) This study employed the comparative analysis method and the Coupled Co-ordination Model (CCDM) to assess the correlation between traditional urbanization and the value of ecosystem services, as well as between new urbanization and the value of ecosystem services. Additionally, the study utilizes the ArcGIS platform to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the two types of urbanization evolution and the spatiotemporal relationship between urbanization and ecosystem co-ordination. The study findings suggest the following: (1) a “low-level coordination” coupling relationship exists between traditional and new urbanization in county-level areas of Shaanxi Province and the value of ecosystem services. (2) The coupling co-ordination of traditional and new urbanization with the value of ecosystem services shows a spread of low-value areas in space, leading to a pattern of low disorder assimilation and significant spatial aggregation. (3) From 2000 to 2020, traditional and new urbanization in various counties of Shaanxi Province consistently exhibited a steady increase, with spatial patterns of “Guanzhong region > Northern Shaanxi region > Southern Shaanxi region”. Both types of urbanization have displayed a “low-level coupling” with ecosystem services. (4) During the same period, the new urbanization index in different counties of Shaanxi Province showed a steady increase, demonstrating an advantage of Guanzhong. Its impact on the ecosystem was significantly weaker than that of traditional urbanization. (5) The development of new urbanization can be more effectively co-ordinated with ecosystem services compared to traditional urbanization. However, currently, its co-ordination with the ecosystem service system is relatively poor. The study’s results suggest that enhancing new urbanization from multiple dimensions is beneficial for promoting the integrated coherence between urbanization development and ecosystem service systems.

Assessment of Climate Trend, Meteorological Drought and Farmers' Perception to Climate Change and Variability in Hadero Tunto District, Southern Ethiopia

Currently, climate change and variability are a hot issue, and more attention needs to be paid to their impact on Ethiopia. Farmers' perception plays a significant role in successfully implementing of adaptation strategies to reduce climate change impacts. The main objective of this study was to assess climate trends, meteorological drought and farmers' perception of climate change variability in Hadero Tunto district, Kembata Tembaro Zone, Southern Ethiopia. To determine historical climate trends, 30 years of rainfall and temperature data were obtained from the Hawassa branch of the Ethiopian National Meteorological Service, and trend analysis was performed. The multistage sampling technique was used to select 150 farm households to be surveyed. The modified Mann–Kendall and Sens' slope estimator trend tests were applied to detect the statistical significance of the trend as well as the magnitude in the time series data. The standardized precipitation index was computed for short and long-term scales to characterize the moisture content in the study area. Results of the standardized precipitation index revealed that the total number of drought events was higher in spring than summer. Still, the most extreme drought was recorded in summer. The years 1987 and 2015 experienced extreme drought in summer with indices values of -2.89 and -2.03, respectively, while, -2.27 was the spring season of 2003. In the long-term scale, -1.7 was recorded as the severe value. The historical average annual maximum and minimum temperatures both showed a significant upward trend. Historical annual rainfall shows a negligible downward trend from 1987 to 2016. This trend of rising temperatures and changing rainfall threatens smallholders´ agriculture, who are already limited by access to basic equipment and land use challenges. The descriptive result revealed that most people perceived long-term variability in the rainfall amount and distribution pattern and an increasing trend and variability of temperature. Based on these results, the study recommends that agricultural extension services be enhanced to sensitize the farmers about climate change, thus improving their perception. Further, studies at a larger scale to illustrate the associations between farmers' perceptions of climate change with meteorological data to figure out the risk of climate change are also critical

Temporal characteristics of extreme high temperatures in Wuhan since 1881

The construction and analysis of daily temperature data series in long enough a time period is important to understand decadal to multi-decadal variability and changing trends in extreme temperature events. This paper reports a new analysis of extreme temperature indices over the last 140 yr in Wuhan, China, with an emphasis on changes in extreme high temperature changes. The daily temperature data from 9 stations from 1881 to 1950 and 1 modern station from 1951 to 2020 were used for the analysis. Based on the data, and the commonly used extreme temperature indices, the variations and long-term trends of extreme high temperature events in Wuhan since 1881 were analyzed. The results show that there was no clear warming trend in maximum temperature, but a quite large inter-annual and inter-decadal fluctuation. In contrast, there was a very significant increase in minimum temperature, with a large upward trend overall. The extreme temperature indices exhibit a periodic variability, and frequent extreme heat events have been experienced over the last 140 yr in Wuhan. Most extreme temperature indices did not exhibit remarkable changes during the first half of the period analyzed. However, the majority of the extreme temperature indices showed significant upward trends over the latter half of the 140 yr period. The possible causes of the observed changes in the extreme high temperature events in the different time periods are also discussed.

Characteristics of flash droughts and their association with compound meteorological extremes in China: Observations and model simulations

Flash droughts have gained considerable public attention due to the imminent threats they pose to food security, ecological safety, and human health. Currently, there has been little research exploring the projected changes in flash droughts and their association with compound meteorological extremes (CMEs). In this study, we applied the pentad-mean water deficit index to investigate the characteristics of flash droughts and their association with CMEs based on observational data and downscaled model simulations. Our analysis reveals an increasing trend in flash drought frequency in China based on historical observations and model simulations. Specifically, the proportion of flash drought frequency with a one-pentad onset time showed a consistent upward trend, with the southern parts of China experiencing a high average proportion during the historical period. Furthermore, the onset dates of the first (last) flash droughts during year are projected to shift earlier (later) in a warmer world. Flash droughts become significantly more frequent in the future, with a growth rate approximately 1.3 times higher in the high emission scenario than in the medium emission scenario. The frequency of flash droughts with a one-pentad onset time also exhibits a significant upward trend, indicating that flash droughts will occur more rapidly in the future. CMEs in southern regions of China were found to be more likely to trigger flash droughts in the historical period. The probability of CMEs triggering flash droughts is expected to increase with the magnitude of warming, particularly in the far-future under the high emissions scenario.

Social Vulnerability Association with Thyroid Cancer Disparities in the United States.

Background: As thyroid cancer incidence rises, it is increasingly valuable to recognize disparities in treatment and diagnosis. Prior investigations into social determinants of health (SDoH) are limited to pediatric populations or studies looking at single factors such as race or environmental influences. Utilizing the CDC-social vulnerability index and SEER-patient database to assess the amalgamated, real-world influence of varied SDoH and their quantifiable impact on thyroid cancer disparities across the United States. Methods: In a retrospective cohort study, 199,340 adult thyroid cancer patients from 1975 to 2017 were assessed for significant regression trends in months of follow-up/surveillance, survival, late staging, and treatment receipt across thyroid cancer-subtypes with increasing overall social vulnerability, as well as in 15 SDoH variables regarding socioeconomic status, minority-language status, household composition, and housing-transportation across all the U.S. counties while accounting for sociodemographic regional differences. Results: With increasing overall social vulnerability, decreases in months of follow-up were observed with patients with papillary, follicular, medullary, oncocytic, and anaplastic thyroid cancer (p = 0.001). Comparing lowest with highest vulnerability cohorts, relative decreases in months of surveillance ranged from 55.6% (14.5-6.5 months) with anaplastic to 17% (108.6-90.2) with oncocytic. Socioeconomic status vulnerabilities, followed by vulnerabilities in household composition and housing-transportation type, contributed to these overall trends. Similar survival decreases occurred across all thyroid cancer patients, ranging from 55.9% (9.6-4.2) with anaplastic to 28.3% (97-69.5) with oncocytic. Minority-language status vulnerabilities and housing-transportation types largely contributed to these trends. Increasing overall vulnerability was associated with increased odds of advanced staging for papillary (odds ratio [OR] = 1.07 [confidence interval, CI 1.03-1.12]) and decreased odds of indicated treatment via surgery (lowest, medullary: 0.91 [CI 0.84-0.99]), radiation therapy (lowest, anaplastic: 0.88 [CI 0.82-0.93]), and chemotherapy (lowest, oncocytic: 0.81 [CI 0.67-0.98]) were observed. Vulnerabilities in minority-language status and housing-transportation, followed by socioeconomic status vulnerabilities, were differential contributors to these overall vulnerability trends. Conclusions: Our results show significant detriments in thyroid cancer care and prognosis in the United States with increasing overall social vulnerability while identifying which SDoH quantifiably contribute more to disparities in inter-relational, real-world-like contexts.

Pyrogeography of the Western Great Plains: A 40-Year History of Fire in Semi-Arid Rangelands

This study describes spatial and temporal patterns in fire across the US Western Great Plains over the last 40 years. Although pyrogeographic studies have explored the nexus of fire patterns in relation to the bio-physical environment and socio-ecological trends, most of this research has focused on forested ecosystems and regions long known for conflict between wildfires and human development, especially at the wildland–urban interface. But evidence suggests large wildfire activity is increasing in the US Great Plains, and the Western Great Plains—a Land Resource Region comprised of four ecoregions, Northwestern Plains, High Plains, Nebraska Sandhills, and Southwestern Tablelands—not only contains some of the largest areas of rangeland in the US but also the highest concentration of public land in the Great Plains. As such, the Western Great Plains provides an opportunity to explore fire activity in primarily rural landscapes with a combination of public and private ownership, all dominated by rangeland vegetation. We combined several publicly-available datasets containing fire records between 1992 and 2020 to create two databases, one with georeferenced point data on 60,575 wildfire events in the region, and another with georeferenced perimeter data for 2665 fires. Ignition by humans was the dominant cause of fires. No ecoregion showed a statistically significant trend towards either increasing or decreasing the annual burned area. The Northwestern Plains had the most burned area and the greatest number of incidents—consistently around or above 1000 incidents per year since 1992—with the majority in July. The High Plains showed the greatest increase in annual fire incidence, never reaching more than 200–300 per year 1992–2009, and averaging above 1000 incidents per year since 2010. Few long-term trends in human population, weather, or fuel metrics appear strongly associated with fire patterns in any ecoregion, although the years 2006, 2012, and 2017 stood out for their levels of fire activity, and these years often frequently logged extreme values in wildland fuel metrics. These relationships merit much closer examination in the Western Great Plains, because like other rangeland-dominated landscapes, the fine fuels that comprise these wildland fuelbeds are much more responsive to fine-scale changes in moisture conditions. Rural Western Great Plains landscapes are a mosaic of public and private land ownership, and an increasing impact of wildfires on public grazing lands—which are often situated within other jurisdictions or ownership—will likely have an impact on rural livelihoods.

The dynamic mechanism of scientific and technological innovation in China’s marine biomedical industry

As one of the important forces promoting the development of the marine economy, the marine biomedical industry (MBI) shows typical knowledge and technology-intensive characteristics. It is of great significance to explore the industrial innovation dynamic mechanism for breaking through the bottleneck of innovative development as well as achieving high-quality development. This paper constructed a system dynamics model for scientific and technological innovation (STI) in the MBI and then explored the dynamic mechanism of STI in the industry through simulation. The study found that, in the innovation environment subsystem, the two factors of the intellectual property protection intensity and the government’s scientific research funding input had the most significant positive driving effects on STI of the MBI; the promotion of government education funding input showed a significant strengthening trend over time, while the marine environmental regulation intensity had comparatively little effect on the level of STI. In the subsystem of innovation input, both innovation funding input and innovation personnel input were the direct driving forces for the improvement of the STI level. And enterprises played a dominant role in STI because the STI level of the MBI was more sensitive to the changes in enterprise innovation input. Compared with the individual factor input, the synergistic promotion effect of multiple factors is more significant. In addition, it was found that there was a low conversion rate of scientific research achievements in China’s MBI by analyzing the influence of various factors changing on technological output and economic output. Based on the research results, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions in order to provide theoretical support and a practical basis for promoting the technological innovation level of China’s MBI as well as references for other countries.

Spatiotemporal drought characteristics during growing seasons of the winter wheat and summer maize in the North China Plain

The North China plain (NCP) is an important production base for winter wheat and summer maize in China. Severe droughts seriously restrict agricultural production in this region, threatening food security. Based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), this study explored the spatial and temporal drought characteristics during the winter wheat and summer maize growing seasons in the region. The study found that: 1) From 1980 to 2013, the drought trend of the winter wheat growing season in the NCP has intensified, with Huang-Huai Plain agricultural area (HH_P) showing the most significant drought trend. However, the summer maize growing season has become wetter, with the Shandong hilly agricultural and forestry area (SD_Q) showing the most significant wetting trend. 2) After the year 2003, the results from Mann-Kendall trend analysis revealed that the drought trend of HH_P during the winter wheat growing season became particularly pronounced, but the wetting trend of SD_Q and HH_P during the summer maize growing season became more evident. 3) The dominant spatial patterns observed in the NCP during the growing seasons of winter wheat and summer maize were marked by a consistent distribution of drought and wetness conditions. For winter wheat, the southern regions of the foothill plain area of Yanshan and Taihang Mountains (YT_P) and the low-lying plain area of Hebei, Shandong, and Henan (JLY_P) were more sensitive to the changes of drought and wet conditions. For summer maize, SD_Q was more sensitive to the changes of the drought and wet conditions. The results of this study could provide references for the formulation of drought relief strategies of winter wheat and summer maize in the NCP.

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Components of Winter Temperature Changes in Western Canada, 1950–2020

Abstract Most of the globe has experienced significant warming trends that have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, these rates of warming are also influenced by short-term climate fluctuations driven by atmospheric circulation dynamics, resulting in inconsistent trend magnitudes in both time and space. This research evaluated winter (December–February) temperature trends over 1950–2020 at 91 climate stations across British Columbia (BC), Alberta (AB), and Saskatchewan (SK), Canada, and determined the components attributed to thermodynamic and dynamic (atmospheric circulation) factors. A synoptic climatological approach was used to classify atmospheric circulation patterns in the midtroposphere, relate those patterns to surface temperature, and evaluate changes in frequency. Moderate to high temperature increases over 71 years were found for most of the region, averaging 3.1°C in southern SK to 4.1°C in central-northern AB, and a maximum of 5.8°C in northern BC. Low to moderate increases were found for southern BC, averaging 1.2°C. Changes in atmospheric circulation accounted for 29% and 31% of observed temperature changes in central-northern BC and AB, respectively. Dynamic factors were a moderate driver in southern AB (18%) and central-northern SK (13%), and low in southern SK (5%). Negative dynamic contributions in southern BC (−6%), suggest that atmospheric circulation changes counteracted thermodynamically driven temperature changes. Results were consistent with trend analyses, indicating this method is well suited for trend detection and identification of thermodynamic and dynamic drivers. Results of this research improve our understanding of the magnitude of winter temperature changes critical for informing adaptation and climate-related policy decisions. Significance Statement Winter temperatures are strongly influenced by atmospheric circulation patterns, which move warm or cold air masses over large distances. We wanted to understand how changes in atmospheric circulation affect observed changes in winter temperatures in three provinces in western Canada. This also helps us to understand how much temperature change is due to anthropogenic (e.g., caused by greenhouse gases and land cover changes) and naturally occurring changes to Earth’s energy balance. Our results highlight the importance of understanding variability when selecting a time series for trend analyses or climate baselines for modeling studies. This study also helps to inform climate-related policies, decision-making, and adaptation strategies.

Exploring the impact of climate change on long-term and short-term variability of rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, Central India

The present study assesses trends in rainfall in Madhya Pradesh, Central India, over the long (1871–2016) as well as short (1987–2016) temporal scales. The region is home to disadvantageous groups of the population including vulnerable tribals who depend on rainfall-based agriculture and forest products. Therefore, any disruption in rainfall trends due to climate change needs to be documented for better planning. This study focuses on two meteorological subdivisions, East and West Madhya Pradesh, which receive a major portion of rainfall through the Bay of Bengal branch and the Arabian Sea branch of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The study is based on the rainfall series provided by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India. This study used the Mann–Kendall test to detect a trend and Sen’s Slope to estimate the magnitude of change in rainfall. Statistically significant negative trends were detected in total annual (− 1.125 mm y − 1) and monsoon (− 1.242 mm y − 1) rainfall over long-term observation in East Madhya Pradesh only. However, during the last 30 years, no trends have been recorded in East Madhya Pradesh. In West Madhya Pradesh, rainfall has not recorded any trend for long- as well as short-term observation periods. The non-availability of a trend in rainfall during May and October at both meteorological subdivisions shows that there is no shift in the duration of the monsoon season over long as well as short temporal observations. The decreasing rainfall trends in Eastern Madhya Pradesh over the long-term observation seem to be caused by changing patterns of tropical cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal.

Factors Affecting Parents’ Choice of Early Childhood Education in Hong Kong: An Exploratory Study

In Hong Kong, children’s education has become an increasingly important issue for families; parents prefer to provide their children with early childhood education because it is vital for children’s comprehensive development and lifelong learning (Cheung, 2019). While previous studies have focused on the influence of parents’ socio-demographic factors and institutional factors on parents’ choice of early childhood education in Hong Kong (Fung & Lam, 2011; Yuen & Grieshaber, 2009), few studies have looked into other factors such as birth order position of the child within the family and length of residency in Hong Kong. This quantitative research aims to investigate factors affecting parents’ choice of early childhood education in Hong Kong. This paper summarizes factors that parents are concerned with while choosing a school, including parents’ socio-demographic factors and institutional factors. Birth order position of the child within the family and length of residency in Hong Kong are also analyzed in this study. The sample consisted of 2000 parents whose children received or are enrolling in early childhood education in Hong Kong. Data were collected via a self-administered questionnaire; descriptive analysis was used to analyze the socio-demographic characteristics of sampling, and chi-square test and binary logistic regression were carried out to identify factors affecting parents’ choice of early childhood education in Hong Kong. The statistical results reveal that family monthly income and birth order position of the child within the family are main factors affecting parents’ choice, and school hardware and school background have a slightly significant trend with parents’ choice of early childhood education in Hong Kong.

Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) Technology in the Health Sector has Several Goals

In a broad sense, artificial intelligence (AI) refers to any computer or system behavior that resembles human behavior. A subfield of artificial intelligence called "machine learning" enables computers to learn from data without explicit human programming. One of the most significant contemporary trends in global healthcare is the use of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in medicine. Technologies based on artificial intelligence are profoundly transforming the world's healthcare system, enabling a dramatic reconstruction of the medical diagnostics system while simultaneously lowering healthcare expenditures. Identifying the class of diseases to which a disease belongs is crucial before treating it. It is feasible to categorize the type of disease based on the feature space of the condition. Algorithms for machine learning can address this issue.