Significant Regional Trends Research Articles

Decrease of dissolved oxygen after the mid‐1980s in the western North Pacific subtropical gyre along the 137°E repeat section

The Japan Meteorological Agency has acquired dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration data each year since 1967 along the 137°E repeat section in the western North Pacific. In this data set we found significant regional temporal trends of decreasing or increasing DO concentrations on various isopycnal surfaces. DO decreases were particularly significant after the mid‐1980s in the subtropical gyre; mean rates of DO change at 20–25°N for 1985–2010 were −0.28 ± 0.08 μmol kg−1 yr−1 on 25.5 σθ in North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (NPSTMW), −0.36 ± 0.08 μmol kg−1 yr−1 on 26.8 σθ in North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW), and −0.23 ± 0.04 μmol kg−1 yr−1 on 27.3 σθ in the O2 minimum Layer (OML). The cause of DO decrease differed among isopycnal surfaces. On density surfaces shallower than 26.0 σθ (less than about 400 m), the deepening of isopycnal surfaces and decline of oxygen solubility due to ocean warming have had the greatest influence. In particular, between 25.2 σθ and 25.8 σθ near the NPSTMW their combined contributions accounted for >50% of the DO decrease. In the NPIW core at roughly 26.8 σθ (∼700 m), the decline in DO was attributable to the DO decrease in the formation region. In the OML between 27.0 σθ and 27.3 σθ (∼1000 m), the DO decrease likely resulted from an increase in westward transport of low O2 water due to strengthening of the subtropical gyre. The result of this study shows the importance of the long‐term and high‐frequency along the 137°E repeat section.

Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers in U.S. Sewage Sludges and Biosolids: Temporal and Geographical Trends and Uptake by Corn Following Land Application

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) have been used extensively to flame-retard polymers and textiles. These persistent chemicals enter wastewater streams following manufacture, use, and disposal, concentrating in the settled solids during treatment. Land application of stabilized sewage sludge (known as biosolids) can contribute PBDEs to terrestrial systems. Monitoring sludge/biosolids contaminant burdens may be valuable in revealing trends in societal chemical usage and environmental release. In archived Chicago area sludges/biosolids from 1975 to 2008, penta-BDE concentrations increased and then plateaued after about 2000. Penta-BDE manufacture in the United States ended in December 2004. Deca-BDE concentrations in biosolids rose from 1995 to 2008, doubling on a 5-year interval. Evaluation of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Targeted National Sewage Sludge Survey data from 2006 to 2007 revealed highest penta-BDE biosolids levels from western and lowest from northeastern wastewater treatment plants (2120 and 1530 μg/kg, respectively), consistent with patterns reported in some recent indoor dust and human blood studies. No significant regional trends were observed for deca-BDE concentrations. Congener patterns in contemporary Chicago biosolids support the contention that BDE-209 can be dehalogenated to less brominated congeners. Biosolids application on agricultural fields increased PBDE soil concentrations. However, corn grown thereon did not exhibit measurable PBDE uptake; perhaps due to low bioavailability of the biosolids-associated flame retardants.

The roles of aerosol, water vapor and cloud in future global dimming/brightening

[1] Observational evidence indicates significant regional trends in solar radiation at the surface in both all-sky and cloud-free conditions. Negative trends in the downwelling solar surface irradiance (SSI) have become known as ‘dimming’ while positive trends have become known as ‘brightening’. We use the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM2 climate model to model trends in cloud-free and total SSI from the pre-industrial to the present-day and compare these against observations. Simulations driven by CMIP5 emissions are used to model the future trends in dimming/brightening up to the year 2100. The modeled trends are reasonably consistent with observed regional trends in dimming and brightening which are due to changes in concentrations in anthropogenic aerosols and, potentially, changes in cloud cover owing to the aerosol indirect effects and/or cloud feedback mechanisms. The future dimming/brightening in cloud-free SSI is not only caused by changes in anthropogenic aerosols: aerosol impacts are overwhelmed by a large dimming caused by increases in water vapor. There is little trend in the total SSI as cloud cover decreases in the climate model used here, and compensates the effect of the change in water vapor. In terms of the surface energy balance, these trends in SSI are obviously more than compensated by the increase in the downwelling terrestrial irradiance from increased water vapor concentrations. However, the study shows that while water vapor is widely appreciated as a greenhouse gas, water vapor impacts on the atmospheric transmission of solar radiation and the future of global dimming/brightening should not be overlooked.

Changes in Patterns of Streamflow From Unregulated Watersheds in Idaho, Western Wyoming, and Northern Nevada1

Clark, Gregory M., 2010. Changes in Patterns of Streamflow From Unregulated Watersheds in Idaho, Western Wyoming, and Northern Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):486‐497. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2009.00416.xAbstract: Recent studies have identified a pattern of earlier spring runoff across much of North America. Earlier spring runoff potentially poses numerous problems, including increased risk of flooding and reduced summer water supply for irrigation, power generation, and migratory fish passage. To identify changing runoff patterns in Idaho streams, streamflow records were analyzed for 26 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations in Idaho, western Wyoming, and northern Nevada, each with a minimum of 41 years of record. The 26 stations are located on 23 unregulated and relatively pristine streams that drain areas ranging from 28 to >35,000 km2. Four runoff parameters were trend tested at each station for both the period of historical record and from 1967 through 2007. Parameters tested were annual mean streamflow, annual minimum daily streamflow, and the dates of the 25th and 50th percentiles of the annual total streamflow. Results of a nonparametric Mann‐Kendall trend test revealed a trend toward lower annual mean and annual minimum streamflows at a majority of the stations, as well as a trend toward earlier snowmelt runoff. Significant downward trends over the period of historical record were most prevalent for the annual minimum streamflow (12 stations) and the 50th percentile of streamflow (11 stations). At most stations, trends were more pronounced during the period from 1967 through 2007. A regional Kendall test for water years 1967 through 2007 revealed significant regional trends in the percent change in the annual mean and annual minimum streamflows (0.67% less per year and 0.62% less per year, respectively), the 25th percentile of streamflow (12.3 days earlier), and the 50th percentile of streamflow (11.5 days earlier).

The origin and global distribution of second order variability in satellite ocean color and its potential applications to algorithm development

Empirical algorithms based on first order relationships between ocean color and the chlorophyll concentration ([Chl]; mg m − 3 ) are widely used, but cannot explain the statistical dispersion or “anomalies” around the mean trends. We use an empirical approach that removes the first order effects of [Chl] from satellite ocean color, thus allowing us to quantify the impact on the ocean color signal of optical anomalies that vary independently of the global mean trends with remotely sensed [Chl]. We then present statistical and modeling analyses to interpret the observed anomalies in terms of their optical sources (i.e. absorption and backscattering coefficients). We identify two main sources of second order variability for a given [Chl]: 1) the amount of non-algal absorption, especially due to colored dissolved organic matter; and 2) the amplitude of the backscattering coefficient of particles. The global distribution of the anomalies displays significant regional and seasonal trends, providing important information for characterizing the marine optical environment and for inferring biogeochemical influences. We subsequently use our empirically determined anomalies to estimate the backscattering coefficient of particles and the combined absorption coefficient for colored detrital and dissolved materials. This purely empirical approach provides an independent assessment of second order optical variability for comparison with existing methods that are generally based on semi-analytical models.

Variation in North American regulatory guidance for heavy metal surface soil contamination at commercial and industrial sites

The health implications and remediation obligations of contaminated soils are significant issues in many urban areas of North America. For commercial and industrial sites, health concerns impact brownfield redevelopment and the conversion of fallow private land into public resources. To help manage health risks, regulatory agencies provide guidance values to identify maximum acceptable levels of contamination. Currently, these guidance values differ by as much as 5 orders of magnitude for some metals. The variability in North American guidance for Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn surface soil contamination at commercial and industrial sites is examined. Ordered column diagrams illustrate the magnitude and dispersion of guidance values. Statistical analysis is used to investigate the significance of variations. Results indicate that commercial and industrial site guidance is more variable than residential site guidance and that even when the values are treated as lognormal random variables, some appear to be “uncharacteristic” outliers. The most significant regional trends are differences between US and Canadian guidance, but individual jurisdiction differences dominate over regional trends. When current guidance values sets were used in Hazard Index analysis applied to 20 sample urban brownfield sites, the results varied by 2 orders of magnitude.

Regional trends in fish mean length at age: components of variance and the statistical power to detect trends

We examined statewide time series (1940s–2002) of mean length at ages 2, 3, and 4 for seven fish species sampled from Michigan and Wisconsin inland lakes for temporal trends. We used a components of variance approach to examine how total variation in mean length at age was partitioned into lake-to-lake, coherent temporal, ephemeral temporal, trend, and residual variation. Using these estimated variance components, we simulated the effects of different variance structures on the power to detect trends in mean length at age. Of the 42 data sets examined, only four demonstrated significant regional (statewide) trends: age 4 largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) from Wisconsin lakes increased about 0.7 mm·year–1 in mean length at age, and ages 2, 3, and 4 walleye (Sander vitreus) from Wisconsin lakes decreased between 0.5 and 0.9 mm·year–1 in mean length at age. The structure of variation differed substantially among data sets, and these differences strongly affected the power to detect trends. Of particular note was that even modest levels of coherent temporal variation led to substantial decreases in power for detecting trends. To maximize trend detection capabilities, fisheries management agencies should consider variance structures prior to choosing indices for monitoring and realize that trend detection capabilities are species- and region-specific.

A Survey of Changes in Cloud Cover and Cloud Types over Land from Surface Observations, 1971–96

Abstract From a dataset of weather observations from land stations worldwide, about 5400 stations were selected as having long periods of record with cloud-type information; they cover all continents and many islands. About 185 million synoptic reports were analyzed for total cloud cover and the amounts of nine different cloud types, for the 26-yr period 1971–96. Monthly and seasonal averages were formed for day and night separately. Time series of total-cloud-cover anomalies for individual continents show a large decrease for South America, small decreases for Eurasia and Africa, and no trend for North America. The largest interannual variations (2.7%) are found for Australia, which is strongly influenced by ENSO. The zonal average trends of total cloud cover are positive in the Arctic winter and spring, 60°–80°N, but negative in all seasons at most other latitudes. The global average trend of total cloud cover over land is small, −0.7% decade−1, offsetting the small positive trend that had been found for the ocean, and resulting in no significant trend for the land–ocean average. Significant regional trends are found for many cloud types. The night trends agree with day trends for total cloud cover and for all cloud types except cumulus. Cirrus trends are generally negative over all continents. A previously reported decline in total cloud cover over China and its neighbors appears to be largely attributable to high and middle clouds. Global trends of the cloud types exhibit trade-offs, with convective cloud types increasing at the expense of stratiform clouds, in both the low and middle levels. Interannual variations over Europe, particularly of nimbostratus, are well correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation; significant correlations are also found across northern Asia. Interannual variations in many parts of the Tropics are well correlated with an ENSO index. Little correlation was found with an index of smoke aerosol, in seven regions of seasonal biomass burning. In the middle latitudes of both hemispheres, seasonal anomalies of cloud cover are positively correlated with surface temperature in winter and negatively correlated in summer, as expected if the direction of causality is from clouds to temperature.

Factors influencing the contamination of UK banknotes with drugs of abuse

Bank of England banknotes sampled from different locations in the UK have been analysed for the presence of cocaine, diamorphine (DAM), Δ 9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA). A database of the contamination detected is routinely used as a benchmark against which the contamination detected on seized banknotes can be compared. Evidence presented at court details how banknotes seized from a suspect may differ from banknotes in general circulation in terms of their contamination with controlled drugs. A question arising from such evidence is whether seized banknotes could have become contaminated through being in circulation in drug “hot spots”. In order to address this issue, a Plackett–Burman experimental design was used to investigate the influence of source location and other factors on banknote contamination with drugs of abuse. Banknotes were drawn from banks in eight regions throughout the UK. Each location could be described by a unique combination of the factors under investigation, namely whether the location was rural or urban, in the North or South of the UK, and whether it was a port of entry. The socio-economic class and the proportion of drug offenders in the area and the denomination of the banknotes were also considered as potentially influential factors. Indices were calculated to describe the degree to which samples were contaminated with different drugs, and normal probability plots were used to identify the factors that could account for the contamination observed. Whilst some factors were more influential than others, it was shown that, at the 95% confidence level, none of the proposed factors were significant influences on the contamination. Cocaine contamination on banknotes has been shown to follow a log-normal distribution. It was, therefore, possible to calculate F- and t-statistics to compare the cocaine contamination on the entire sample set with that detected on a second sample set consisting of banknotes all drawn from a single bank branch. It was shown that both inter-bank samples and intra-bank samples had similar variance and similar contamination levels at the 95% confidence level. This suggests that there are no significant regional trends in the contamination of banknotes with drugs of abuse across the UK.

Outsourcing Korea

The Six‐party agreement on North Korea's nuclear program on September 19‐20, 2005, despite its insistence upon an end to North Korea's nuclear activities, is in reality a major sign of significant regional trends that betoken a significant loss of U.S. power over the issues connected with security on the Korean peninsula. This agreement represents the first tangible outcome of the growing distancing of the ROK and the United States, and thus the fraying of their alliance. It also signifies a major diplomatic triumph for China which has forged an apparent alliance with Russia against American policy in Northeast Asia and is becoming increasingly closer to South Korea on issues relating to the Korean peninsula's security, than America. This agreement could thus represent a milestone in China's efforts to multilateralize security on the peninsula and effectuate a corresponding reduction in U.S. power in Asia. This outcome owes much to the American failure to understand and take account of regional dynamics, namely, that to be an effective player here one must have a relationship with North Korea. It also stems form the excessive partisan politicization of this issue in Congress and the Bush Administration's inability to overcome its unilateral and moralizing tendencies to forge a coherent policy among all branches of the government. Indeed, Washington spurned its interlocutors' pleas to engage North Korea directly, an engagement that would have allowed it to retain the preponderant position vis‐à‐vis Korean security issues that it has enjoyed since 1953. Although these talks are hardly concluded and the outcome remains uncertain, even somewhat precarious, it is clear that the prospects for a new security system in Northeast Asia, built at Washington's expense are very much in sight.

Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. II: climate change scenarios (2071?2100)

We present an analysis of climate change over Europe as simulated by a regional climate model (RCM) nested within time-slice atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. Changes in mean and interannual variability are discussed for the 30-year period of 2071–2100 with respect to the present day period of 1961–1990 under forcing from the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios. In both scenarios, the European region undergoes substantial warming in all seasons, in the range of 1–5.5°C, with the warming being 1–2°C lower in the B2 than in the A2 scenario. The spatial patterns of warming are similar in the two scenarios, with a maximum over eastern Europe in winter and over western and southern Europe in summer. The precipitation changes in the two scenarios also show similar spatial patterns. In winter, precipitation increases over most of Europe (except for the southern Mediterranean regions) due to increased storm activity and higher atmospheric water vapor loadings. In summer, a decrease in precipitation is found over most of western and southern Europe in response to a blocking-like anticyclonic circulation over the northeastern Atlantic which deflects summer storms northward. The precipitation changes in the intermediate seasons (spring and fall) are less pronounced than in winter and summer. Overall, the intensity of daily precipitation events predominantly increases, often also in regions where the mean precipitation decreases. Conversely the number of wet days decreases (leading to longer dry periods) except in the winter over western and central Europe. Cloudiness, snow cover and soil water content show predominant decreases, in many cases also in regions where precipitation increases. Interannual variability of both temperature and precipitation increases substantially in the summer and shows only small changes in the other seasons. A number of statistically significant regional trends are found throughout the scenario simulations, especially for temperature and for the A2 scenario. The results from the forcing AGCM simulations and the nested RCM simulations are generally consistent with each other at the broad scale. However, significant differences in the simulated surface climate changes are found between the two models in the summer, when local physics processes are more important. In addition, substantial fine scale detail in the RCM-produced change signal is found in response to local topographical and coastline features.

Are brook trout streams in western Virginia and Shenandoah National Park recovering from acidification?

Streamwater composition data obtained through periodic sampling of streams that support brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in the mountains of western Virginia were examined for evidence of recovery from acidification during the 1988-2001 period. Measurements of sulfate deposition in precipitation indicate that sulfate deposition in the region declined approximately 40% between 1985 and 2000. While no significant regional trends in acid-base constituents were observed for the set (n = 65) of western Virginia study streams, significant regional trends were observed for a subset (n = 14) of streams in Shenandoah National Park (SNP). For the subset of SNP streams, the median increase in acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) was 0.168 microequiv L(-1) year(-1) and the median decrease in sulfate concentration was -0.229 microequiv L(-1) year(-1). Although these trends are consistent with recovery from acidification, the degree of apparent recovery is small compared to estimates of historic acidification in SNP streams and much less than observed in other, more northern regions in the United States. Correlation between sulfate concentration trends and current sulfate concentrations in streamwater suggests that recovery from stream acidification in the western Virginia region is determined by sulfur retention processes in watershed soils. A transient increase in nitrate concentrations that occurred among some western Virginia streams following forest defoliation by the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) complicates interpretation of the observed patterns of change in acid-base status.

Climate change and Australia: Trends, projections and impacts

Abstract This review summarizes recent research in Australia on: (i) climate and geophysical trends over the last few decades; (ii) projections for climate change in the 21st century; (iii) predicted impacts from modelling studies on particular ecosystems and native species; and (iv) ecological effects that have apparently occurred as a response to recent warming. Consistent with global trends, Australia has warmed ∼0.8°C over the last century with minimum temperatures warming faster than maxima. There have been significant regional trends in rainfall with the northern, eastern and southern parts of the continent receiving greater rainfall and the western region receiving less. Higher rainfall has been associated with an increase in the number of rain days and heavy rainfall events. Sea surface temperatures on the Great Barrier Reef have increased and are associated with an increase in the frequency and severity of coral bleaching and mortality. Sea level rises in Australia have been regionally variable, and considerably less than the global average. Snow cover and duration have declined significantly at some sites in the Snowy Mountains. CSIRO projections for future climatic changes indicate increases in annual average temperatures of 0.4–2.0°C by 2030 (relative to 1990) and 1.0–6.0°C by 2070. Considerable uncertainty remains as to future changes in rainfall, El Niño Southern Oscillation events and tropical cyclone activity. Overall increases in potential evaporation over much of the continent are predicted as well as continued reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover.Future changes in temperature and rainfall are predicted to have significant impacts on most vegetation types that have been modelled to date, although the interactive effect of continuing increases in atmospheric CO2 has not been incorporated into most modelling studies. Elevated CO2 will most likely mitigate some of the impacts of climate change by reducing water stress. Future impacts on particular ecosystems include increased forest growth, alterations in competitive regimes between C3 and C4 grasses, increasing encroachment of woody shrubs into arid and semiarid rangelands, continued incursion of mangrove communities into freshwater wetlands, increasing frequency of coral bleaching, and establishment of woody species at increasingly higher elevations in the alpine zone. Modelling of potential impacts on specific Australian taxa using bioclimatic analysis programs such as bioclim consistently predicts contraction and/or fragmentation of species' current ranges. The bioclimates of some species of plants and vertebrates are predicted to disappear entirely with as little as 0.5–1.0°C of warming.Australia lacks the long‐term datasets and tradition of phenological monitoring that have allowed the detection of climate‐change‐related trends in the Northern Hemisphere. Long‐term changes in Australian vegetation can be mostly attributed to alterations in fire regimes, clearing and grazing, but some trends, such as encroachment of rainforest into eucalypt woodlands, and establishment of trees in subalpine meadows probably have a climatic component. Shifts in species distributions toward the south (bats, birds), upward in elevation (alpine mammals) or along changing rainfall contours (birds, semiarid reptiles), have recently been documented and offer circumstantial evidence that temperature and rainfall trends are already affecting geographic ranges. Future research directions suggested include giving more emphasis to the study of climatic impacts and understanding the factors that control species distributions, incorporating the effects of elevated CO2 into climatic modelling for vegetation and selecting suitable species as indicators of climate‐induced change.

A comparison of regional trends in 1979-1997 depth-averaged tropospheric temperatures

This study examines regional temperature trends during the period 1979–1997 from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) 2r satellite measurements and compares them with the same trends in depth-averaged tropospheric temperatures derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, in an attempt to determine whether regional trends exist which are larger than known inhomogeneities in the data. Large, statistically significant regional trends were found in both the NCEP and the MSU data that are of both signs and have larger magnitude than documented biases in the data. The datasets have overall agreement on the location and strength of these significant regional trends at mid and high latitudes but agreement decreases in the tropics. A global annual average of the significant regional trends with larger amplitudes than reported data biases and areally weighted over the globe yields −0.02°C over the 19-year period of the record in the MSU 2r Version C dataset, and −0.05°C/19 years in the NCEP data in the 1000–500 mb layer. Increasing the bias threshold by as much as five times still results in an average cooling in both datasets. Subjecting the surface temperature record to the same regional analysis yields a regionally significant trend of 0.17°C/19 years, approximately halving the trend obtained when all regions, regardless of significance, are considered. In addition, many regions with significant warming trends in the surface network occur in areas with limited observations over oceans and are not confirmed by the other datasets. Discrepancies between significant regional trends in the surface record and the upper-air observations are not systematic. In no case are regionally significant, tropical, warming trends at the surface magnified at higher levels in the MSU and NCEP tropospheric data. In the case of the NCEP reanalysis, both warming and cooling trends on average become larger, more significant, and cover larger areas in shallower tropospheric layers. These results suggest that the disparity between global trends in satellite/rawinsonde/reanalysis datasets and those of the surface record are not simply the result of large-scale changes in the vertical structure of the atmosphere or to large-scale biases in the satellite observations, but instead are linked to processes which are regional in nature. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society

Characterization of Seismogenic Zones of Romania

—Although the time and magnitude range covered by available seismological data is limited, several significant regional trends are outlined in the seismogenic zones of Romania. Vrancea region, which is by far the most seismically active area, has a persistent rate of occurrence of intermediate-depth earthquakes, clustered in a very confined focal volume, and a clear compressive stress regime. The deformation field, as deduced from the available fault plane solutions, is drastically reduced in the crust, where the maximum magnitude is below 6.5 (except Shabla zone, in Bulgaria). The system of major faults developed in a NW–SE direction in the Carpathians foredeep area is certainly linked to the subduction process in Vrancea, although they seem not to play a significantly active role, as could be expected for an active subduction process. The existing data indicate an extensional deformation regime over the foredeep area and Southern Carpathians, while a predominant compressive regime is outlined at the contact between the eastern margin of the Pannonian Depression and Carpathians orogen, in agreement with the bending tendency of the maximum horizontal compression orientation of the crustal stress field from NE–SW, in western and central Europe, to E–W, in the intra-Carpathian region (Grunthal and Strohmeyer, 1992).

Observed changes in the diurnal dewpoint cycles across North America

We analyzed the record of hourly dewpoint data from 92 climatological stations in North America. The data were centered with respect to sunrise and sunset and divided into four geographic regions of approximately equal area in an attempt to uncover regional trends. Few statistically significant regional trends in mean dewpoint temperatures were found. However, the within‐day variations were very well behaved and consistent across regions. They showed a relative decline in dewpoints in the late afternoon at most stations, and small declines just after sunrise. The results are consistent with urbanization signals described by Oke [1987]. An observed rise in midday dewpoint, followed by a fall in late afternoon, indicates some regional enhancement of convection, which may in part be from the urban effect, but other causes are possible. Our dewpoint changes are somewhat consistent with precipitation changes that have described by other researchers.

REGIONAL TRENDS IN ELECTORAL SUPPORT IN BRITAIN, 1950–1983∗

Analyses of the geography of British elections have typically stressed the continuity in patterns of party support. This paper challenges that conclusion. Employing an alternative method of analysis, it identifies significant regional trends in the Conservative and Labour vote between 1950 and 1983. Pro-Labour trends in Scotland and Northwest England are contrasted with secular changes favoring the Conservatives in non-metropolitan Southern England. These long-term trends have not been associated with growing regional polarization in party support. While the findings are specific to Britain, the method of assessing electoral change might be usefully applied to patterns in other countries.