Significant Predictors Of Recurrence Research Articles

In a prospective, multicenter study, the 31-GEP identified patients at increased risk of tumor recurrence and added significant prognostic value to AJCC staging

Cutaneous melanoma (CM) guidelines base management decisions on a patient’s American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor stage. However, limitations in staging accuracy suggest additional tools could improve risk-aligned patient management decisions. The 31-gene expression profile (GEP) test identifies patients with CM with low (Class 1A), intermediate (Class 1B/2A), or high (Class 2B) risk for sentinel lymph node (SLN) positivity, recurrence, metastasis, and death. In this multicenter, prospective study, we validated the 31-GEP for risk of recurrence and demonstrated the added value of 31-GEP to AJCC staging. Patients were included in the prospective CONNECTION study if they were tested with the 31-GEP from 2018 to the present (n=876). Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and 31-GEP stratification tested with the log-rank test. Cox regression was performed to identify predictors of recurrence. ANOVA was used to compare Cox models for the most accurate recurrence prediction. Patients with a Class 1A result had significantly higher 3-year recurrence-free survival than those with a Class 1B/2A or Class 2B result (98.5% vs. 80.8% vs. 63.0%, p<0.001). The 31-GEP had higher sensitivity (75.0% vs. 37.5%) and negative predictive value (98.6% vs. 96.9%) than AJCC staging. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that Class 1B/2A (hazard ratio, HR=3.12, p=0.037) and Class 2B (HR=5.91, p=0.002) were significant predictors of recurrence in addition to stage IB (HR=4.02, p=0.02), IIA (HR=6.06, p=0.006), IIC (HR=17.14, p<0.001), and III (HR=8.84, p<0.001). Stage IIB (HR=4.63, p=0.057) was not significant. Comparing a staging-only model to a 31-GEP+staging model showed that adding 31-GEP to staging significantly improved prediction accuracy over staging alone (ANOVA: c2=10.58, p=0.005). In this prospective study, the 31-GEP stratified risk of recurrence, was a significant predictor of recurrence, and added significant predictive value to AJCC staging. The 31-GEP identifies patients at high risk of recurrence who should be managed more intensely, and adding 31-GEP to staging allows better risk-aligned care decisions, which can lead to improved patient outcomes.

Comprehensive analysis of recurrence factors in cryoballoon AF ablation: integrating clinical, biomarkers, and echocardiographic parameters.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) poses substantial challenges in cardiovascular diseases, impacting patient health and economic burdens. Understanding the mechanical effects of AF on the left atrium (LA) and assessing the influence of treatment modalities on LA functions are critical. This study aims to assess the efficacy of echocardiographic and biochemical parameters in predicting AF recurrence following second generation cryoballoon ablation (CB-2). Ninety-two patients with symptomatic AF, treated with CB-2 at Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Cardiology, were prospectively examined from January 2021 to July 2023. The study endeavors to develop a predictive model for AF recurrence, investigating the relationship between echocardiographic measurements and serum biomarkers with recurrence. The follow-up duration for echocardiographic assessments and biochemical analyses was systematically documented. The study revealed a significant enhancement in LA mechanical functions during echocardiographic follow-ups three months post-procedure. Specifically, LA strain parameters emerged as significant predictors of recurrence (LAsr: 95%CI 1.004-1.246, p = 0.047; LAsct: 95%CI 1.040-1.750, p = 0.024). Biochemical analyses demonstrated a correlation between elevated PRO-BNP levels and an increased risk of recurrence (95%CI 1.000-1.003, p = 0.012). Moreover, specific biomarkers such as MYBPHL, which demonstrated increased levels post-procedure, were deemed indicative of atrial damage, suggesting potential additional atrial substrate modification beyond PVI. Consequently, improvements in LA function post-cryoballoon ablation and biochemical markers have surfaced as potential indicators for predicting AF recurrence. This study elucidates the effectiveness of CB-2 in treating AF and its impact on LA functions. Notably, LA strain measurements and PRO-BNP levels have emerged as reliable indicators for predicting recurrence. Beyond clinical implications, our research establishes a foundation for a deeper understanding of the role of CB-2 in AF management and factors associated with recurrence.

The Efficacy of Medical Interventions for Free-Floating Thrombus in Cerebrovascular Events: A Systematic Review.

Although free-floating thrombus (FFT) poses a significant risk of stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), optimal management strategies are uncertain. To determine the state-of-the-art of medical interventions for FFT, we conducted a systematic review of the efficacy of various medical interventions and factors influencing FFT resolution and recurrence. A comprehensive search of Embase, PubMed, and ScienceDirect identified 61 studies encompassing 179 patients with FFT-related stroke or TIA treated with anticoagulants, antiplatelets, or their combinations. Primary outcomes assessed were stroke recurrence and thrombus resolution. Statistical analyses (Fisher's exact test, chi-square test, Mann-Whitney test, and Kruskal-Wallis test) utilized significance set at p < 0.05. Over a median follow-up of 7 months, thrombus resolution occurred in 65% of patients, while 11.2% experienced recurrence, primarily as TIAs. Cardioembolism was significantly less common in resolved cases (p = 0.025). Combination therapy (antiplatelets, anticoagulants, and statins) significantly enhanced clot resolution (OR 11.4; 95% CI 1.436-91.91; p = 0.021) compared to monotherapies. Ulcerated plaque was a significant predictor of recurrence (OR 8.2; 95% CI 1.02-66.07; p = 0.048). These findings underscore the superiority of combination therapy in FFT management and highlight the need for targeted interventions in patients with ulcerated plaques to mitigate recurrence risk.

Sigmoid volvulus-Can CT features predict outcomes and recurrence?

Sigmoid volvulus (SV) is a common cause of bowel obstruction, especially in older patients. SV can be mesenteroaxial (M-SV) or organoaxial (O-SV). The purpose of this study was to assess if CT findings in SV are associated with clinical outcomes. including recurrence, choice of management, and mortality. This study includes patients with SV and a CT within 24 hours of presentation. CT features, including mesenteraoxial/organoaxial arrangement, direction of rotation, transition points, distension, whirl-sign, ischemia, and perforation were determined. Demographics, treatment, recurrence, and outcome data were recorded. One hundred and seventeen cases were diagnosed in 80 patients (54 male). The mean age was 70 years (± 17.1). M-SV and O-SV were equally prevalent (n = 39 vs. n = 41, respectively). M-SV was significantly more common with anticlockwise rotation in the axial plane (p = 0.028) and clockwise rotation in the coronal plane (p = 0.015). All patients with imaging features of ischemia underwent surgery (n = 6). There was no significant difference in outcome variables (30-day mortality, 30-day readmission, recurrence) between the O-SV and M-SV groups. The degree of bowel distension on initial presentation was a significant predictor of recurrence, with ≥ 9 cm vs < 9 cm associated with an increased odds of any recurrence (OR: 3.23; 95%CI: 1.39-7.92). In SV, sigmoid distension of more than 9 cm at baseline CT was associated with an increased risk of recurrence. Imaging features of ischemia predicted surgical over endoscopic intervention. Organoaxial and mesenteroaxial SV had similar prevalence, but the type of volvulus was not associated with clinical outcomes or choice of management. There is a risk of recurrent sigmoid volvulus with colonic distension greater than 9 cm. This work, comparing volvulus subtypes, shows that this finding at the initial presentation could expedite consideration for surgical management. Reports of outcomes for different subtypes and rotational directions of volvuli have been contradictory. No difference in measured outcomes was found between subtypes; distension ≥ 9 cm predicted recurrence. CT features can aide management of sigmoid volvulus and can prompt surgical intervention.

Central lymph node ratio is an important recurrence prognostic factor for pediatric differentiated thyroid cancer.

The current risk stratification methods for Pediatric Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma (DTC) are deemed inadequate due to the high recurrence rates observed in this demographic. This study investigates alternative clinicopathological factors, specifically the Central Lymph Node Ratio (CLNR), for improved risk stratification in pediatric DTC. A retrospective review of 100 pediatric DTC patients, aged 19 or younger, treated between December 2012 and January 2021 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University was conducted. Clinicopathological variables were extracted, and univariate logistic regression identified factors correlated with recurrence. Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis and subsequent statistical tests were used to assess the significance of these factors. The CLNR, with a cutoff value of 77.78%, emerged as a significant predictor of recurrence. Patients with a CLNR above this threshold had a 5.467 times higher risk of recurrence. The high CLNR group showed a higher proportion of male patients, clinically lymph node positivity (cN1), and extrathyroidal extension (ETE) compared to the low-risk group (p<0.05). CLNR is a valuable predictor for recurrence in pediatric DTC and aids in stratifying patients based on Recurrence-Free Survival (RFS). For patients with a high CLNR, aggressive iodine-131 therapy, stringent TSH suppression, and proactive postoperative surveillance are recommended to mitigate recurrence risk and facilitate timely detection of recurrent lesions.

Clinical and Pathological Predictors of Recurrent Breast Cancer

Objectives: Recurrence of breast cancer is common. There are reported risk factors for recurrence which are patient age, tumor size, tumor grade, (lymph vascular invasion (LVI), extensive intraductal component (EIC), and margin status. Nodal involvement also contributes to the recurrence rate as well as hormonal status, and if the patient receives neoadjuvant/adjuvant therapy or not. The aim of this study is to look for the clinical and pathological predictors of patients who have recurrent breast cancer after surgical treatment. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study at one center (Royal hospital) between 2010 to 2020 for patients who were treated surgically for nonmetastatic breast cancer. We collected the clinical which was mainly the age at the diagnosis and pathological predictors (final histopathology report of the surgical specimen) from the medical records system of the hospital after obtaining the ethical approval. Total sample size was 270 Omani patients. The primary endpoint was the time to locoregional recurrence or systemic recurrence as the first event. A multivariate analysis of the predictors was carried and a P-value of &lt; 0.05 was considered statistically significant with 95% CI. Results: Out of 270 patients with breast cancer who were surgically treated, 113 had recurrence and 157 had no recurrence. There were 104 patients with recurrence have invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) and 9 patients with high-grade ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). The Mean age of patients with recurrence was 44.0 while in patients without recurrence was 48.3. The difference in age between the two groups is not statistically significant in predicting the recurrence (p = 0.816). ER, LVI, EIC, nodal involvement, grade, margin, and type of tumor were the significant predictors of recurrence by bivariate analysis. However, High grade (Hazard ratio (HR) = 3.823, 95% CI: 1.104-13.240; p = 0.034), EIC (HR = 17.407, 95% CI: 1.538-196.999; p = 0.021), and nodal involvement (HR = 2.314, 95% CI: 1.123-4.767; p = 0.023) remain the significant predictors for recurrent breast cancer in the multivariate Cox regression analysis. By using Kaplan-Meier, the median survival time was 132 months and the recurrence-free survival at two years was 88.0% (The recurrence rate = 12.0%). Conclusions: High grade, extensive intraductal component, and nodal involvement are significant predictors for breast cancer recurrence. The recurrencefree survival at 2 years is 88.0%. Our recommendation is a close follow-up for patients with these predictors.

Therapeutic Efficacy of Ultrasound-Guided Selective Nerve Block on Chronic Cervical Radiculopathy.

Background and Objectives: Cervical radiculopathy (CR) manifests as pain and sensorimotor disturbances in the upper extremities, often resulting from nerve root compression due to intervertebral disc herniation, degenerative changes, or trauma. While conservative treatments are initially preferred, persistent or severe cases may require surgical intervention. Ultrasound-guided selective nerve root block (SNRB) has emerged as a promising intervention for alleviating symptoms and potentially obviating the need for surgery. This study evaluates the therapeutic efficacy of ultrasound-guided SNRB in managing chronic CR, aiming to determine its potential in symptom relief and delaying or avoiding surgical procedures. Materials and Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 720 outpatients treated for CR between October 2019 and March 2022. After excluding patients with traumatic CR, previous surgeries, malignancies, progressive neurological symptoms requiring immediate surgery, or inadequate conservative treatment, 92 patients who had experienced cervical radicular pain for more than three months and had failed to improve after more than six weeks of conservative treatment with VAS scores ≥ 5 were included. The patients underwent single or multiple ultrasound-guided SNRB procedures, involving the injection of dexamethasone and lidocaine under real-time ultrasound guidance. Symptom severity was assessed at the baseline, and at 4, 8, and 12 weeks post-procedure using the Visual Analog Scale (VAS). The data collected included age, sex, presence of neck and/or radicular pain, physical examination findings, recurrence of symptoms, improvement in symptoms, and whether surgical intervention was ultimately required. Statistical analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with symptom improvement or recurrence. Results: Significant symptom improvement was observed in 69 (75.0%) participants post-SNRB, with 55 (79.7%) showing improvement at 4 weeks, 11 (15.9%) at 8 weeks, and 3 (4.4%) at 12 weeks. Symptom recurrence, defined by an increase in VAS score accompanied by a pain flare lasting at least 24 h after a pain-free interval of at least one month, was noted in 48 (52.2%) patients. The presence of combined neck and radicular pain was a significant predictor of recurrence (p = 0.008). No significant associations were found between symptom relief and factors such as age, gender, initial pain severity, or MRI findings. Conclusions: Ultrasound-guided SNRB effectively manages chronic CR, providing substantial symptom relief and potentially reducing the need for surgical intervention. This technique offers a promising conservative treatment option, especially given its real-time visualization advantages and minimal radiation exposure.

Abstract PO4-08-03: Prognostic Effect of Ductal Carcinoma in Situ in Breast Cancer with BRCA1/2 Mutations

Abstract Abstract Background: Although Breast Cancer Susceptibility Gene (BRCA)-associated invasive breast cancer has been extensively studied, there are few reports on ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in patients with BRCA1/2 mutations. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic effect of DCIS in breast cancer patients with pathologic variants of BRCA1/2 genes. Methods: Retrospective analysis was performed on a prospective cohort of 157 patients who were found positive for BRCA1/2 mutations through genetic testing from August 2003 to January 2022 at Seoul National University Bundang Hospital. Survival outcomes were compared between patients who had both invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) and DCIS components (IDC-DCIS group, n = 121) and patients who had IDC only (IDC group, n = 36). Cox regression analysis was performed for evaluation of predictive factors for recurrence. Results: Among the 157 patients, 65 (41.4%) patients showed BRCA1 mutations, 90 (57.3%) patients had pathological variants of BRCA2, and 2 (1.3%) patients tested positive for both BRCA1/2 mutations. There was no difference in baseline clinical characteristics between the IDC-DCIS and IDC groups. When pathological features were compared, the IDC-DCIS group was more likely to express positivity in both estrogen receptor (IDC 5 (13.9%) vs. IDC-DCIS 74 (61.2%), P &amp;lt; 0.001) and progesterone receptor status (IDC 5 (13.9%) vs. IDC-DCIS 67 (55.4%), P &amp;lt; 0.001). Tumors in the IDC group were associated with a higher histologic grade (P = 0.004). There was no statistically significant difference in 5-year disease-free survival between the two groups (IDC 83.6% vs. IDC-DCIS 89.3%, P = 0.989). In univariate Cox regression analysis, younger age at diagnosis was a significant predictor for recurrence (hazard ratio (HR) 2.236, P = 0.049); salpingo-oophorectomy showed a risk-reducing effect (HR 0.106, P &amp;lt; 0.001). Further multivariate analysis found only the effect of salpingo-oophorectomy to be prognostic (HR 0.112, P &amp;lt; 0.001). Presence of DCIS was not a risk factor for recurrence in patients with BRCA1/2 mutations (HR 1.006, P = 0.989). Conclusion: BRCA1/2-positive breast cancer with DCIS components is more likely to be hormone receptor-positive and of lower grade compared to patients with IDC only. A tailored approach might be necessary in establishing treatment options for breast cancer patients with BRCA1/2 mutations according to the presence of DCIS. Citation Format: Kyung-Hwak Yoon, Eun-Kyu Kim, Hee-Chul Shin. Prognostic Effect of Ductal Carcinoma in Situ in Breast Cancer with BRCA1/2 Mutations [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO4-08-03.

Development of a prediction model for recurrence in patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases undergoing cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy

IntroductionCytoreductive surgery (CRS) with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) improves survival outcomes for selected patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (PM), but recurrence rates are high. The aim of this study was to develop a tool to predict recurrence in patients with colorectal PM that undergo CRS-HIPEC. Materials and methodsFor this retrospective cohort study, data of patients that underwent CRS-HIPEC for colorectal PM from four Dutch HIPEC centers were used. Exclusion criteria were perioperative systemic therapy and peritoneal cancer index (PCI) ≥20. Nine previously identified factors were considered as predictors: gender, age, primary tumor characteristics (location, nodal stage, differentiation, and mutation status), synchronous liver metastases, preoperative Carcino-Embryonal Antigen (CEA), and peritoneal cancer index (PCI). The prediction model was developed using multivariable Cox regression and validated internally using bootstrapping. The performance of the model was evaluated by discrimination and calibration. ResultsIn total, 408 patients were included. During the follow-up, recurrence of disease occurred in 318 patients (78%). Significant predictors of recurrence were PCI (HR 1.075, 95% CI 1.044–1.108) and primary tumor location (left sided HR 0.719, 95% CI 0.550–0.939). The prediction model for recurrence showed fair discrimination with a C-index of 0.64 (95% CI 0.62, 0.66) after internal validation. The model was well-calibrated with good agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities. ConclusionWe developed a prediction tool that could aid in the prediction of recurrence in patients with colorectal PM who undergo CRS-HIPEC.

Prognostication for recurrence patterns after curative resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

This study aimed to investigate patterns and factors affecting recurrence after curative resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Consecutive patients who underwent curative resection for PDAC (2011-21) and consented to data and tissue collection (Barts Pancreas Tissue Bank) were followed up until May 2023. Clinico-pathological variables were analysed using Cox proportional hazards model. Of 91 people (42 males [46%]; median age, 71 years [range, 43-86 years]) with a median follow-up of 51 months (95% confidence intervals [CIs], 40-61 months), the recurrence rate was 72.5% (n = 66; 12 loco-regional alone, 11 liver alone, 5 lung alone, 3 peritoneal alone, 29 simultaneous loco-regional and distant metastases, and 6 multi-focal distant metastases at first recurrence diagnosis). The median time to recurrence was 8.5 months (95% CI, 6.6-10.5 months). Median survival after recurrence was 5.8 months (95% CI, 4.2-7.3 months). Stratification by recurrence location revealed significant differences in time to recurrence between loco-regional only recurrence (median, 13.6 months; 95% CI, 11.7-15.5 months) and simultaneous loco-regional with distant recurrence (median, 7.5 months; 95% CI, 4.6-10.4 months; p = 0.02, pairwise log-rank test). Significant predictors for recurrence were systemic inflammation index (SII) ≥ 500 (hazard ratio [HR], 4.5; 95% CI, 1.4-14.3), lymph node ratio ≥ 0.33 (HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.4-5.8), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.7). Timing to loco-regional only recurrence was significantly longer than simultaneous loco-regional with distant recurrence. Significant predictors for recurrence were SII, lymph node ration, and adjuvant chemotherapy.

Prediction of tumor recurrence after surgical resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma using magnetic resonance imaging.

To predict tumor recurrence in patients who underwent surgical resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma using preoperative magnetic resonance (MR) imaging findings combined with clinical findings. In this multicenter study, a total of 113 patients (mean age, 62.9 ± 9.8 years; 58 men and 55 women) with ampullary adenocarcinoma who underwent preoperative MR imaging and surgery with margin-negative resection between 2006 and 2017 were retrospectively included. The MR imaging findings were evaluated by two radiologists. Preoperative clinical findings were obtained. Cox proportional regression analyses were used to identify the independent prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS). A nomogram was created based on the multivariable analysis and was internally validated. Multivariable analysis revealed that presence of infiltrative tumor margin (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.18, p = 0.019), adjacent organ invasion (HR: 3.31, p = 0.006), adjacent vessel invasion (HR: 5.42, p = 0.041), peripancreatic lymph node enlargement (HR: 2.1, p = 0.019), and jaundice (HR: 1.93, p = 0.043) were significantly associated with worse RFS of ampullary adenocarcinoma after surgical resection. These MR imaging and clinical findings were used to construct a nomogram. On internal validation, the calibration plots showed excellent agreement between the predicted probabilities and the actual rates of tumor recurrence, with Harrell's c-index of 0.746. Combination of preoperative MR imaging and clinical findings can be useful for predicting tumor recurrence after surgical resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma. Identifying these features before surgery may aid in better treatment planning and management of these patients. A predictive nomogram using preoperative MR imaging and clinical findings can be useful in estimating the recurrence-free survival after surgical resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma. • Presently, tumor size on imaging is the only non-invasive factor that correlates with recurrence-free survival from ampullary adenocarcinoma; other factors are obtained postoperatively. • Infiltrative tumor margin, adjacent organ invasion, adjacent vessel invasion, peripancreatic lymph node enlargement on MRI, and jaundice are significant predictors for recurrence. • A nomogram incorporating significant MR imaging and clinical findings showed good performance in predicting recurrence-free survival, which can help in treatment planning.

Real-World Evidence Confirms Risk Stratification of the 31-GEP and i31-GEP in Prospectively Tested Patients with Stage I-III Cutaneous Melanoma

Introduction: Current American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC 8th edition) guidelines in patients with cutaneous melanoma (CM) separate them into risk categories based on the pathological tumor data of Breslow thickness, ulceration status, and sentinel lymph node status. The 31-gene expression profile was developed and prospectively validated to identify patients considered high or low risk by AJCC with low or high-risk tumor biology who may be over- or under-treated by current guidelines. To further advance personalized patient care, the 31-GEP result was integrated with clinical and pathological factors (i31-GEP for risk of recurrence, ROR) to provide a personalized, precise risk of tumor recurrence. &#x0D; &#x0D; Methods: Patients with stage I-III CM enrolled in the CONNECTION study were prospectively tested with the 31-GEP between 2013 and 2017 (n=1,831). Kaplan-Meier analysis with the log-rank test was used to estimate survival differences between low (Class 1A), intermediate (Class 1B/2A), and high (Class 2) risk groups and the i31-GEP risk groups. The i31-GEP ROR combines Breslow thickness, ulceration, SLN status, mitotic rate, tumor location, age, and the 31-GEP result to provide a personalized estimate of recurrence-free survival (RFS). While guidelines have not established a ROR threshold for determining when to escalate or de-escalate care, the NCCN uses stage IIA versus IIB as the cut-point. This cut-point translates to a 5-year RFS rate of 69.8% and was used for the present analysis. Cox multivariable regression analysis was used to identify predictors of recurrence. &#x0D; &#x0D; Results: Patients with a Class 1A result had higher 5-year RFS than those with a Class 1B/2A or Class 2B result (94.4% vs. 78.6% vs. 65.5%, p&lt;0.001). The following were significant predictors of recurrence in multivariable analysis: Class 1B/2A (HR=2.07, p&lt;0.001), Class 2B (HR=2.40, p&lt;0.001), positive SLN (HR=4.54, p&lt;0.001), Breslow thickness (HR=1.09, p=0.028), presence of ulceration (HR=1.57, p=0.005), mitotic rate &gt;2/mm2 (HR=1.47, p=0.016), and age (HR=1.02, p&lt;0.001). Patients with a low-risk i31-GEP result had significantly higher 5-year RFS than those considered high risk by the i31-GEP (92.4% vs. 49.7%, p&lt;0.001). &#x0D; &#x0D; Conclusions: The i31-GEP is validated in a real-world group of prospectively tested patients. The independent i31-GEP ROR test result improves identification of patients whose management should be escalated or de-escalated within current guidelines.

The effect of spread through air spaces on postoperative recurrence-free survival in patients with multiple primary lung cancers

PurposeThe purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of spread through air spaces (STAS) on the postoperative prognosis of patients with multiple primary lung cancers staged from IA to IB based on tumor size.MethodsClinicopathological and follow-up data of 122 patients with multiple primary lung cancers diagnosed at stages IA-IB and surgically treated at the Department of Thoracic Surgery, Shenzhen people’s Hospital from January 2019 to December 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. The study involved 42 males and 80 females. STAS status was used to divide them into two groups (87 cases in STAS (-) and 35 cases in STAS (+)). A logistic regression analysis, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, and Kaplan-Meier curves (K-M) were used to determine how STAS affected recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients.ResultsSTAS (+) had a significantly higher recurrence rate than STAS (-). STAS was predicted by smoking history (P = 0.044), main tumor diameter (P = 0.02), and solid nodules on chest CT (P = 0.02). STAS incidence was not significantly different between lobectomy and sublobar resection groups (P = 0.17). Solid nodules on CT, tumor diameter, vascular invasion, pleural invasion, and STAS were significant predictors of recurrence in the univariate Cox regression analysis. Tumor diameter, pleural invasion and STAS were significant prognostic factors for recurrence in the multivariate Cox regression analysis. Furthermore, STAS (+) group was at greater risk of recurrence than STAS (-) group (34% vs. 0%, P < 0.05)。.ConclusionStage IA-IB multiple primary lung cancer patients with STAS (+) had a higher recurrence rate and a shorter overall survival rate.

Comparing Clinical Efficacy of Different Bacillus Calmette-Guérin Strains in Patients With T1 High Grade Bladder Cancer.

This study aimed to compare the clinical efficacy of two different Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) strains, TICE strain (OncoTICE) and Connaught strain (ImmuCyst), as a first line intravesical instillation therapy in patients with T1 high grade bladder cancer. Patients with newly diagnosed T1 high-grade bladder cancer who underwent transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT) followed by intravesical instillation therapy were enrolled. The effects of BCG strain on recurrence, progression, and side effects were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models. Among 147 patients, 53 patients received Connaught strain and 94 patients received TICE strain. The completion rate of induction instillation was 92.45% in the Connaught group and 91.49% in the TICE group (p=1.00). The three-year recurrence-free survival rate was 71.7% in the Connaught group and 63.83% in the TICE group (p=0.33), whereas the three-year progression-free survival rate was 96.23% in the Connaught group and 89.36% in the TICE group (p=0.21). On Cox regression test, carcinoma in situ and ≥eight lesions were significant predictors for recurrence. No significant difference was observed in recurrence and progression between the two BCG regimens. The complication rates according to the Cleveland Clinic grading system showed no significant difference between the two groups (p=0.13). Both the Connaught and TICE strains of BCG demonstrated comparable three-year recurrence-free survival rates and three-year progression-free survival rates for T1 high grade bladder cancer, as well as comparable adverse events. Due to the global BCG shortage, further strain comparisons are essential for clinical validation.

Performance of a tumor-informed molecular residual disease (MRD) assay in resected bladder cancer with mixed or pure variant histology: Analysis of a real-world multicenter cohort.

649 Background: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)-based MRD assays can detect clinically occult disease with high sensitivity and specificity in patients with solid tumors. Previous trials that evaluated MRD testing in bladder cancer, such as ABACUS and IMVigor010, enrolled patients with a predominant urothelial carcinoma component. Given the known histological and molecular heterogeneity in urothelial carcinoma, we examined the prognostic value of a tumor-informed MRD assay in bladder cancer patients with mixed or pure variant histologies (M/VH). Methods: This retrospective study analyzed the results of post-cystectomy longitudinal ctDNA testing from a multi-institutional database of patients with urothelial carcinoma (n=205). A personalized, tumor-informed assay (Signatera, Natera, Inc.) was used for the detection and quantification of ctDNA. Patients with M/VH and at least 3 months of postoperative follow-up data on relevant demographic, clinical, pathologic, and NGS variables were eligible for inclusion. Time-dependent Cox regression analyses were performed for disease-free survival (DFS) based on ctDNA during the MRD window (&lt;12 weeks from surgery, N=29) and surveillance window (&gt;12 weeks post-surgery or post-AT, N=29). Multivariable regression was performed to adjust hazards for clinicopathologic factors predicting DFS. Results: Of the 205 patients, 46 (74% male, median age: 69 years) met the inclusion criteria for analysis. Whole exome sequencing of tumor tissue revealed that TP53 (45.7%), ARID1A (32.6%), and KDM6A (30.4%) were the top three genes with somatic mutations. Twenty-seven (59%) patients received neoadjuvant therapy, 37% of whom (10/27) also received adjuvant therapy. ctDNA-positivity during the MRD window and during surveillance was strongly associated with poor DFS (MRD window: HR=4.93, 95%CI: 1.77-20.77, p=0.03; surveillance: HR=28.3, 95% CI: 3.52-3660, p&lt;0.001). None of the serially ctDNA-negative patients (N=25) recurred, whereas 58.9% (10/17) of patients who were ctDNA-positive anytime post-surgery recurred at a median follow-up of 9 months from the date of surgery, range: 3.1-36.4 months). When adjusted for all other risk factors, ctDNA-positivity anytime post-surgery was the only significant predictor of recurrence (HR=55.26, 95%CI: 5.3-7648, p&lt;0.00001). Conclusions: Personalized, tumor-informed ctDNA testing can identify patients with mixed or variant histology bladder cancer who are at high risk of recurrence. Further studies are warranted to evaluate the potential benefit of ctDNA-guided adjuvant therapy in this patient population.

Risk of recurrence at the time of withdrawal of short- or long-term methimazole therapy in patients with Graves' hyperthyroidism: a randomized trial and a risk-scoring model.

In Graves' disease, administration of low-dose methimazole for more than 60 months induces higher remission rates compared with the conventional duration of 12-18 months. However, the risk of recurrence and its predictors beyond 48 months of drug withdrawal are not known. The aims of this study were to determine the risk of recurrence during 84 months after withdrawal of short- or long-term methimazole therapy and a risk stratification for recurrence of hyperthyroidism. A total of 258 patients were treated with methimazole for a median of 18 months and randomized to discontinuation of the drug(conventional short-term group; n = 128) or continuation of the treatment up to 60-120 months(long-term group; n = 130). Patients were followed for 84 months after methimazole withdrawal. Cox proportional hazards modeling was performed to identify factors associated with relapse and develop a risk-scoring model at the time of discontinuing the treatment. Hyperthyroidism recurred in 67 of 120(56%) of conventionally-treated patients versus 20 of 118(17%) of those who received long-term methimazole treatment, p < 0.001. Age, sex, goiter grade, triiodothyronine, thyrotropin, and thyrotropin receptor antibodies were significant predictors of recurrence in both "conventional" and "long-term" groups but free thyroxine just in the "long-term" group. The risk-scoring model had a good discrimination power (optimism corrected c-index = 0.78,95%CI = 0.73-0.82) with a range of 0-14 and sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 62% at the risk-score of eight. A relapse-free state was achieved in 83% of patients with Graves' hyperthyroidism 84 months after cessation of long-term methimazole treatment which could be predicted by some significant predictors in a simple risk-scoring system.

Inflammation indexes and machine-learning algorithm in predicting urethroplasty success.

To assess the predictive capability of hematological inflammatory markers for urethral stricture recurrence after primary urethroplasty and to compare traditional statistical methods with a machine-learning-based artificial intelligence algorithm. Two hundred eighty-seven patients who underwent primary urethroplasty were scanned. Ages, smoking status, comorbidities, hematological inflammatory parameters (neutrophil-lymphocyte ratios, platelet-lymphocyte ratios [PLR], systemic immune-inflammation indexes [SII], and pan-immune-inflammation values [PIV]), stricture characteristics, history of previous direct-visual internal urethrotomy, urethroplasty techniques, and grafts/flaps placements were collected. Patients were followed up for one year for recurrence and grouped accordingly. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to create a predictive model. Additionally, a machine-learning-based logistic regression analysis was implemented to compare predictive performances. p<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Comparative analysis between the groups revealed statistically significant differences in stricture length (p=0.003), localization (p=0.027), lymphocyte counts (p=0.008), PLR (p=0.003), SII (p=0.003), and PIV (p=0.001). In multivariate analysis, stricture length (odds ratio [OR] 1.230, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.142-1.539, p<0.0001) and PIV (OR 1.002, 95% CI 1.000-1.003, p=0.039) were identified as significant predictors of recurrence. Classical logistic regression model exhibited a sensitivity of 0.76, specificity of 0.43 with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.65. However, the machine-learning algorithm outperformed traditional methods achieving a sensitivity of 0.80, specificity of 0.76 with a higher AUC of 0.82. PIV and machine-learning algorithms shows promise on predicting urethroplasty outcomes, potentially leading to develop possible nomograms. Evolving machine-learning algorithms will contribute to more personalized and accurate approaches in managing urethral stricture.

Treatment of Granulomatous Mastitis With Steroids: Should the Decision to End the Treatment be Made Radiologically?

Idiopathic granulomatous mastitis (IGM) is a benign inflammatory breast disease of unknown etiology that affects women in their reproductive period. The most commonly preferred option as first-line treatment is steroids, but the lack of a standard treatment protocol and high recurrence rate after treatment constitutes a recurring challenge during its management. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the decision to end the treatment should be made radiologically or clinically. This retrospective cohort study included IGM patients who had complete clinical recovery with steroids and were followed for a minimum of 30 months. Patient demographics, disease severity and findings, treatment regimens and duration, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings at clinical recovery were assessed for their relation to recurrence. Eighty-nine patients who were clinically completely healed after steroid treatment for IGM were included in the study. At the time of clinical healing, 51 (57.3%) patients had a complete radiological response and 38 (42.7%) had a partial radiological response (PRR) on MRI. Overall, recurrence developed in 22 (24.7%) patients after a median 38.6-month follow-up. Patients who experienced recurrence were significantly older and had PRR when their treatment was stopped upon clinical healing. During the process of clinical healing, the imaging findings revealed that the remaining disease seems to be a significant predictor for recurrence in IGM patients. In patients with PRR, extending the treatment with either prolonged steroid therapy or by surgical excision of the occult residual disease may prevent recurrences in IGM patients.

Factors influencing recurrence and model development for recurrence of minimally invasive percutaneous transhepatic lithotripsy: a single-center retrospective study.

To identify factors influencing recurrence after percutaneous transhepatic choledochoscopic lithotripsy (PTCSL) and to develop a predictive model. We retrospectively analyzed clinical data from 354 patients with intrahepatic and extrahepatic bile duct stones treated with PTCSL at Qinzhou First People's Hospital between February 2018 and January 2020. Patients were followed for three years and categorized into non-recurrence and recurrence groups based on postoperative outcome. Univariate analysis identified possible predictors of stone recurrence. Data were split using the gradient boosting machine (GBM) algorithm, assigning 70% as the training set and 30% as the test set. The predictive performance of the GBM model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve, and compared with a logistic regression model. Six factors were identified as significant predictors of recurrence: age, diabetes, total bilirubin, biliary stricture, number of stones, and stone diameter. The GBM model, developed based on these factors, showed high predictive accuracy. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.763 (95% CI: 0.695-0.830) for the training set and 0.709 (95% CI: 0.596-0.822) for the test set. Optimal cutoff values were 0.286 and 0.264, with sensitivities of 62.30% and 66.70%, and specificities of 77.20% and 68.50%, respectively. Calibration curves indicated good agreement between predicted probabilities and observed recurrence rates in both sets. DeLong's test revealed no significant differences between the GBM and logistic regression models in predictive performance (training set: D = 0.003, P = 0.997 > 0.05; test set: D = 0.075, P = 0.940 > 0.05). Biliary stricture, stone diameter, diabetes, stone number, age, and total bilirubin significantly influence stone recurrence after PTCSL. The GBM model, based on these factors, demonstrates robust accuracy and discrimination. Both GBM and logistic regression models effectively predicted stone recurrence post-PTCSL.

PREDICTING CLIENT RETURN TO ADULT PROTECTIVE SERVICES: A SECONDARY ANALYSIS OF RECURRENCE USING NATIONAL APS DATA

Abstract APS programs are provided by state and local governments across the U.S. to serve older adults and adults with disabilities facing abuse, neglect, or exploitation (“maltreatment”). The purpose of this analysis was to identify predictors of recurrence, which occurs when clients return to APS for investigation/services after their cases have been closed. The analysis combined several data sources, including the National Adult Maltreatment Reporting System (NAMRS), the first comprehensive, national data reporting system for APS programs. This analysis represents the first study of this kind to use NAMRS data. The main analyses used Bayesian logistic regression with client, case, and state-level APS system characteristics to predict 12-month recurrence in a multi-state model and in separate single-state models. The sample included data on 1,211,360 APS episodes that closed from 2015-2019 in 19 states. These episodes contained information on 946,477 unique APS clients. About one in five clients in this analysis experienced at least one episode of recurrence. Multivariate results revealed several significant predictors of recurrence (e.g., gender, maltreatment type, maltreatment disposition, episode length, case closure reason), with the largest being age (85+ vs. ≤59 AOR=0.876) and self-neglect (AOR=1.132). The findings may be helpful for APS programs to better recognize and serve clients at high risk of returning to APS after their cases close. The findings also highlight the ambiguity surrounding the concept of recurrence in the APS field and the need for further research to determine the circumstances in which recurrence may be considered a negative or a positive outcome.