Significant Predictors Of Postoperative Complications Research Articles

Short-term outcomes for lung cancer resection surgery in HIV infection.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in people living with HIV (PWH). Surgical resection is a key component of potentially curative treatment regimens for early-stage lung cancers, but its safety is unclear in the setting of HIV. From a national cohort, we assessed potential differences in the risk of major lung cancer surgery complications by HIV status. We linked clinical and cancer data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) and Veterans Affairs Corporate Data Warehouse to outcomes from the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) and identified 8371 patients (137 PWH, 8234 uninfected) who underwent lung cancer surgeries between 2000 and 2016. We compared rates of 15 major short-term surgical complications by HIV status. Use of surgical resection for early-stage lung cancer did not differ by HIV status. Lung cancer surgery postoperative (30-day) mortality was 2.0% for PWH and did not differ by HIV status (P = 0.9). Pneumonia was the most common complication for both PWH and uninfected veterans, but did not differ significantly in prevalence between groups (11.0% for PWH versus 9.4%; P = 0.5). The frequency of complications did not differ by HIV status for any complication (all P > 0.3). There were no significant predictors of postoperative complications for PWH. In a national antiretroviral-era cohort of lung cancer patients undergoing surgical lung resection, short-term outcomes after surgery did not differ significantly by HIV status. Concerns regarding short-term surgical complications should have limited influence on treatment decisions for PWH with lung cancer.

Commercial quality “awards” are not a strong indicator of quality surgical care

BackgroundThis study aimed to determine whether publicized hospital rankings can be used to predict surgical outcomes. MethodsPatients undergoing one of nine surgical procedures were identified, using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Database for Florida and New York 2011–2013 and merged with hospital data from the American Hospital Association Annual Survey. Nine quality designations were analyzed as possible predictors of inpatient mortality and postoperative complications, using logistic regression, decision trees, and support vector machines. ResultsWe identified 229,657 patients within 177 hospitals. Decision trees were the highest performing machine learning algorithm for predicting inpatient mortality and postoperative complications (accuracy 0.83, P<.001). The top 3 variables associated with low surgical mortality (relative impact) were Hospital Compare (42), total procedure volume (16) and, Joint Commission (12). When analyzed separately for each individual procedure, hospital quality awards were not predictors of postoperative complications for 7 of the 9 studied procedures. However, when grouping together procedures with a volume-outcome relationship, hospital ranking becomes a significant predictor of postoperative complications. ConclusionHospital quality rankings are not a reliable indicator of quality for all surgical procedures. Hospital and provider quality must be evaluated with an emphasis on creating consistent, reliable, and accurate measures of quality that translate to improved patient outcomes.

Loss of muscle mass: a significant predictor of postoperative complications in acute diverticulitis

BackgroundSevere muscle mass depletion, sarcopenia, has been shown to be associated with poor operative outcomes. However, its impact on emergency abdominal operations remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between low muscle mass (LMM) and outcomes after emergency operations for acute diverticulitis. Patients and methodsPatients ≥18 y requiring an emergency operation for acute diverticulitis between January 2007 and September 2014 were included. On preoperative computed tomography, the cross-sectional area (CSA) and transverse diameter (TVD) of the right and left psoas muscle were measured at the level of the third lumbar vertebral body. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine appropriate CSA and TVD cutoff values defining low skeletal muscle mass. Clinical outcomes of patients with low muscle mass (LMM group) were compared with the non-LMM group. ResultsA total of 89 patients met our inclusion criteria. Median CSA and TVD were 794 mm2 and 24 mm, respectively. There was a strong correlation between the CSA and TVD (R2 = 0.84). In univariable analysis, significantly higher rates of postoperative major complications (63% versus 37%, P = 0.027) and surgical site infection (47% versus 19%, P = 0.008) were identified in the LMM group. After adjusting for clinically important covariates in a logistic regression model, patients with LMM were significantly associated with higher odds of major complications and surgical site infection. ConclusionsPreoperative assessment of the psoas muscle CSA and TVD on computed tomography can be a practical method for identifying patients at risk for postoperative complications.

Effect of Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity on Complications After Shoulder Arthroplasty.

Metabolic syndrome can adversely affect surgical outcomes. This study evaluated the postoperative outcomes of patients with metabolic syndrome after total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA). A retrospective cohort study of 4751 patients undergoing TSA was conducted with use of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2005 to 2013. Metabolic syndrome was defined as hypertension, diabetes, and body mass index of 30.0 kg/m(2) or greater. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed for the outcomes of any postoperative complications and extended length of stay. Patients classified as obese III had a significantly increased risk of extended length of stay (P=.011) compared with control subjects who were of normal weight. In the multivariable adjusted models, compared with nonobese patients, those classified as obese I and obese II had a significantly decreased risk of postoperative complications (odds ratio, 0.84, P=.020, and odds ratio, 0.82, P=.045, respectively), whereas those classified as obese I were less likely to have extended length of stay (odds ratio, 0.79, P=.004). Metabolic syndrome was not a significant predictor of postoperative complications or extended length of stay. Morbidly obese patients undergoing TSA have an increased risk of postoperative complications and extended length of stay. Those classified as obese I and obese II may have a decreased risk of postoperative complications and shorter length of stay. Despite the hypothesized negative effect of metabolic syndrome on outcomes, the overall effect of metabolic syndrome was insignificant. These results are consistent with previous studies on obesity in patients undergoing TSA and may explain why recent studies have not shown differences in the rate of complications after TSA in obese patients with a body mass index of 30 to 40 mg/kg(2). [Orthopedics.2016; 39(5):309-316.].

Predictors and consequences of intraoperative microvascular problems in autologous breast reconstruction

Microvascular complications can have devastating consequences in breast reconstruction. Because of the relatively low rate of complications, it can be difficult to identify significant predictors of failure. This study explores the importance of intraoperative microvascular problems in the development of postoperative complications and seeks to identify risk factors that may predict such events. Three hundred and eighty-four patients undergoing 562 microvascular breast reconstructions were eligible for inclusion in this study. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify factors showing a significant association with intraoperative microvascular problems and postoperative microvascular complications. In multivariate logistic regression, intraoperative problems were an independent risk factor for the development of postoperative microvascular complications (odds ratio [OR] 2.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-6.6, p=0.02). Smoking was the only independent predictor of intraoperative events (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.1-5.3, p=0.03). While intraoperative problems are predisposed to postoperative microvascular complications in general, those that were thrombotic in nature could be corrected by early recognition and intraoperative revision in the majority of cases. This study identifies intraoperative microvascular problems as significant predictors of postoperative complications in breast reconstruction. Smoking increases the rate of intraoperative problems, and although many can be corrected, preoperative smoking cessation may reduce the complexity of microsurgery and optimize postoperative outcomes.

Emergency general surgery specific frailty index: A validation study.

Assessment of operative risk in geriatric patients undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS) is challenging. Frailty is an established measure for risk assessment in surgical cases. The aim of our study was to validate a modified 15-variable EGS-specific frailty index (EGSFI). We prospectively collected geriatric (age older than 65 years) EGS patients for 2 years. Postoperative complications were collected. Frailty index was calculated for 200 patients based on their preadmission condition using 50-variable modified Rockwood frailty index. Emergency general surgery-specific frailty index was developed based on the regression model for complications and the most significant factors in the frailty index. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine cutoff for frail status. We validated our results using 60 patients for predicting complications. A total of 260 patients (developing, 200; validation, 60) were enrolled in this study. Mean age was 71 ± 11 years, and 33% developed complications. Most common complications were pneumonia (12%), urinary tract infection (9%), and wound infection (7%). Univariate analysis identified 15 variables significantly associated with complications that were used to develop the EGSFI. A cutoff frailty score of 0.325 was identified using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for frail status. Sixty patients (frail, 18; nonfrail, 42) were enrolled in the validation cohort. Frail patients were more likely to have postoperative complications (47% vs. 20%; p < 0.001) compared to nonfrail patients. Frail status based on EGSFI was a significant predictor of postoperative complications (odds ratio, 7.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-19.8; p = 0.006). Age was not associated with postoperative complications (odds ratio, 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.92-1.06; p = 0.86). The 15-variable validated EGSFI is a simple and reliable bedside tool to determine the frailty status of patients undergoing EGS. Frail status as determined by the EGSFI is an independent predictor of postoperative complications and mortality in geriatric EGS patients. Prognostic study, level II.

Decompressive Craniectomy for Stroke: Early Cranioplasty Is a Predictor for Postoperative Complications

Previous clinical studies assumed that early cranioplasty (CP) was mandatory for a favorable neurologic recovery after decompressive craniectomy (DC) for malignant stroke. However, the appropriate timing of the CP procedure after DC remains controversial. This study assessed patients who underwent DC because of cerebral ischemia to determine the appropriate time point of CP and surgical-associated complications. Data from the period 2007-2014 were retrospectively evaluated. CP was performed in 75 patients who previously underwent DC because of supratentorial cerebral infarction. Patients were divided into 2 groups (early CP vs. late CP) according to the time from DC to CP (<3 months vs. ≥3 months). Patient characteristics, timing of CP, and postoperative complications associated with CP were analyzed. CP was performed early in 12 patients (16%) and late in 63 patients (84%). The complication rate after CP was 18%; complications included wound healing disturbance in 8 patients (11%), epidural hematoma or subdural hematoma in 4 patients (4%), and others in 2 patients (3%). Patients with early CP experienced significantly more complications compared with patients with late CP after initial DC (5 of 12 patients [42%] vs. 8 of 63 patients [13%]; P= 0.02). In multivariate analysis, early CP was a significant predictor of postoperative complications after CP (odds ratio= 6.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-24.9; P= 0.01). The present data suggest that patients who underwent DC for stroke might benefit from CP performed >3 months after DC owing to a lower rate of wound infection.

Which frailty measure is a good predictor of early post-operative complications in elderly hip fracture patients?

Current pre-operative assessment using, e.g., American Society of Anaesthesiologists score does not accurately predict post-operative outcomes following hip fracture. The multidimensional aspect of frailty syndrome makes it a better predictor of post-operative outcomes in hip fracture patients. We aim to discover which frailty measure is more suitable for prediction of early post-operative outcomes in hip fracture patients. Hundred consecutive hip fracture patients seen by the orthogeriatric service were included. We collected baseline demographic, functional and comorbidity data. In addition to ASA, a single blinded rater measured frailty using two scales (i) modified fried criteria (MFC) and (ii) reported edmonton frail scale (REFS). The MFC adopted a surrogate gait speed measure with two questions: (i) Climbing one flight of stairs and (ii) Ability to walk 1km in the last 2weeks. Immediate post-operative complications during the inpatient stay were taken as the primary outcome measure. Subjects had mean age of 79.1±9.6years. Sixty six percent were female and 87% of Chinese ethnicity. Eighty two percent had surgery, of which 37.8% (n=31) had post-operative complications. Frailty, measured by MFC (OR 4.46, p=0.04) and REFS (OR 6.76, p=0.01) were the only significant predictors of post-operative complications on univariate analyses. In the hierarchical logistic regression model, only REFS (OR 3.42, p=0.04) predicted early post-operative complications. At 6months follow-up, REFS significantly predicted [basic activities of daily living (BADL)] function on the multivariable logistic regression models. (BADL, OR 6.19, p=0.01). Frailty, measured by the REFS is a good predictor of early post-operative outcomes in our pilot study of older adults undergoing hip surgery. It is also able to predict 6months BADL function. We intend to review its role in longer-term post-operative outcomes and validate its potential role in pre-operative assessment of older adults undergoing hip surgery.

Evaluating the effect of time process measures on appendectomy clinical outcomes

BackgroundWith varied reports on the impact of time to appendectomy on clinical outcomes, we examined the effects of pre-operative delays in pediatric acute appendicitis. MethodsChildren with acute appendicitis (January 2013–June 2014) were identified from a prospective database. Univariate analyses compared time metrics, patient characteristics, and disease severity with postoperative complications (POC) and organ space surgical site infection (OSSI), and multivariate logistic regression determined predictors of POC and OSSI. Results1211 patients underwent appendectomy. Median age was 10.4years (IQR 7.8–13years). 537 patients (45%) had complex appendicitis. Overall, POC was 11% (n=133), and OSSI was 9% (n=105). Neither time from presentation to appendectomy nor diagnosis to appendectomy increased POCs. On univariate analyses, operative time (OT) was longer in patients with POC (57min (IQR 49–75) vs. 46min (IQR 36–57), p<0.001 and OSSI (60min (IQR 51–80) vs. 46min (IQR 37–57), p<0.001. However, after adjusting for confounding factors, disease severity remained the most significant predictor of POC (OR 6.5, 95% CI 2.79–15.23) and OSSI (OR 76.6, 95% CI 7.87–745.65). ConclusionPre-operative delays were not associated with increased POC or OSSI. The strongest predictor of POC or OSSI was disease severity, for which operative time may represent a surrogate.

Loss of Muscle Mass: A Significant Predictor of Postoperative Complications in Patients with Acute Diverticulitis

Loss of Muscle Mass: A Significant Predictor of Postoperative Complications in Patients with Acute Diverticulitis

Is the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index a Significant Predictor of Postoperative Complications in Patients with Esophageal Cancer Undergoing Esophagectomy?

Background: The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) is a new index recently introduced for predicting the risk of nutrition-related complications. The GNRI has mainly been reported as a simple and accurate tool to assess the nutritional status and prognosis of elderly patients. So far, there have been no reports of the GNRI in patients with gastrointestinal cancer. Our objective was to examine the association between the GNRI and short-term outcomes, especially postoperative complications, in patients with esophageal cancer who underwent esophagectomy and gastric tube reconstruction. Materials and Methods: The present study enrolled 122 consecutive patients with esophageal cancer who underwent esophagectomy and gastric tube reconstruction. The GNRI at admission to the hospital was calculated as follows: (1.489 × albumin in g/l) + (41.7 × present/ideal body weight). The characteristics and short-term outcomes were compared between two groups: the high (GNRI ≥90) and the low (GNRI <90) GNRI group. The mortality and morbidity rates, especially the rates regarding respiratory complications and anastomotic leakage, were investigated. Results: The mean age of the 122 patients was 63.9 ± 9.1 years (range 43-83). There were no significant differences in either patient or operative characteristics. The low GNRI group had a significantly higher rate of respiratory complications (p = 0.002). A multivariate analysis demonstrated that the GNRI was the only independent significant factor predicting respiratory complications (hazard ratio 3.41, 95% confidence interval 1.19-9.76; p = 0.022). Conclusion: The GNRI is considered to be a clinically useful marker that can be used to assess the nutritional status and predict the development of postoperative respiratory complications in patients with esophageal cancer undergoing esophagectomy and gastric tube reconstruction.

B-type natriuretic peptide-guided risk assessment for postoperative complications in lung cancer surgery.

Since lung cancer surgery is still associated with a high complication rate, it is important to efficiently identify patients at high risk for postoperative complications following lung cancer surgery. We previously reported that elderly patients with elevated preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels (>30 pg/mL) have an increased risk for postoperative atrial fibrillation and cardiopulmonary complications following lung cancer surgery. The objective of this study was to evaluate the clinical utility of BNP-guided risk classification for postoperative complications after lung cancer surgery. A total of 675 consecutive patients who underwent curative surgery for lung cancer in two specialized thoracic centers between 2007 and 2011 were included in this retrospective study. We evaluated the association between the incidence of postoperative complications and preoperative BNP levels. Univariable and multivariable stepwise logistic regression analyses revealed that an elevated preoperative BNP level was the most significant predictor of postoperative complications. All patients were classified by their preoperative BNP levels into a normal group (<30 pg/mL), a mildly elevated group (30-100 pg/mL), and a severely elevated group (>100 pg/mL). The incidence of postoperative complications was significantly higher in the severely and mildly elevated groups than in the control group (85 % and 47 % vs. 11 %, P < 0.0001). Furthermore, there were more severe complications and a higher mortality rate in the severely elevated group. Risk assessment using preoperative BNP levels was clinically useful for the identification of patients at high risk for postoperative complications.

Clinical and Oncological Value of Preoperative BMI in Gastric Cancer Patients: A Single Center Experience.

Introduction. The impact of preoperative BMI on surgical outcomes and long-term survival of gastric cancer patients was investigated in various reports with contrasting results. Materials & Methods. A total of 378 patients who underwent a surgical resection for primary gastric cancer between 1994 and 2011 were retrospectively studied. Patients were stratified according to BMI into a normal group (<25, group A), an overweight group (25–30, group B), and an obesity group (≥30, group C). These 3 groups were compared according to clinical-pathological characteristics, surgical treatment, and long-term survival. Results. No significant correlations between BMI and TNM (2010), UICC stage (2010), Lauren's histological type, surgical results, lymph node dissection, and postoperative morbidity and mortality were observed. Factors related to higher BMI were male gender (P < 0.05), diabetes (P < 0.001), and serum blood proteins (P < 0.01). A trend to fewer lymph nodes retrieved during gastrectomy with lymphadenectomy in overweight patients (B and C groups) was observed, although not statistically significant. There was no difference in overall survival or disease-specific survival between the three groups. Conclusion. According to our data, BMI should not be considered a significant predictor of postoperative complications or long-term result in gastric cancer patients.

The impact of intraoperative hypothermia on early postoperative adverse events after radical esophagectomy for cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

To investigate the correlation between intraoperative body temperature and postoperative adverse effects in patients who underwent esophagectomy procedures. Retrospective cohort study. University Hospital. One hundred twenty-one patients undergoing esophagectomy were enrolled. None. Various perioperative and intraoperative variables were recorded. Hypothermia was defined as a urinary bladder temperature<35°C. Multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify independent significant predictors of postoperative complications. In addition, the authors also determined a cutoff point for intraoperative minimum urinary bladder temperature by analyzing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for occurrence of adverse events at 1 month after surgery. No patients died within 1 month after the surgery. There were 53 patients with early postoperative complications, and 51 had experienced intraoperative hypothermia. Factors that were correlated significantly with complications included age (p=0.02); hypothermia (p<0.01); and doses of ephedrine (p<0.01), phenylephrine (p<0.01), and fentanyl (p<0.01). Multiple logistic regression analysis identified intraoperative hypothermia as a significant independent predictor for the development of early perioperative complications (odds ratio 2.57; 95% confidence interval 1.09-6.08). The area under the ROC curve for body temperature was 0.71, and the cutoff point was 35°C (sensitivity=0.65, specificity=0.72). Intraoperative hypothermia was identified as an independent risk factor for early postoperative adverse events following esophagectomy.

Preoperative serum albumin level as a predictor of postoperative complication after spine fusion.

Retrospective cohort study. To investigate the association between preoperative baseline serum albumin and postoperative surgical complication. The prevalence of malnutrition in the hospitalized patient population has only been recently recognized. Preoperative hypoalbuminemia (serum albumin <3.5 g/dL) has been shown to be associated with increased morbidity and mortality rates. The prognostic implications and significance of hypoalbuminemia after spine fusion surgery remain unknown. In this study, we assess the predictive value of preoperative nutritional status (serum albumin level) on postoperative complication rates. The medical records of 136 consecutive patients undergoing spine fusion at Duke University Medical Center were reviewed. Preoperative serum albumin level was assessed on all patients and used to quantify nutritional status. Albumin less than 3.5 g/dL was recognized as hypoalbuminemia (malnourished). Patient demographics, comorbidities, and postoperative complication rates were collected. Patients were also stratified into 2 groups based on their cause, namely elective degenerative/deformity versus nonelective cases. The association between preoperative serum albumin level and postoperative complication was assessed via logistic regression analysis. Overall, 40 (29.4%) patients experience at least 1 postoperative complication. Patients undergoing elective surgery had more complications based on preoperative albumin levels (malnourished patients: 35.7% vs. nourished patients: 11.7%, P = 0.03), whereas those undergoing nonelective surgery had similar complication rates (malnourished patients: 46.5% vs. nourished patients: 42.1%, P = 0.75). For patients undergoing elective spinal surgery, logistic regression with and without propensity score adjustment for risk factors, demonstrated that preoperative serum albumin level was a significant predictor of postoperative complications (OR: 4.21; 95% CI: 1.09-16.19; P = 0.04) and (OR: 4.54; 95% CI: 1.17-19.32; P = 0.04), respectively. Preoperative hypoalbuminemia is an independent risk factor for postoperative complications after elective spine surgery for degenerative and deformity causes, and should be used more frequently as a prognostic tool to detect malnutrition and risk of adverse surgical outcomes. 2.

Fewer adverse events after reoperative parathyroidectomy associated with initial minimally invasive parathyroidectomy

BackgroundThis study compared reoperative complication rates after initial minimally invasive parathyroidectomy and standard cervical exploration. MethodsRecords from patients who underwent 1 reoperative parathyroidectomy at a single institution (1998 to 2012) were retrospectively reviewed. ResultsSeventy-seven patients were included; 74% underwent initial standard cervical exploration. Preoperative and operative characteristics were similar between groups; 74% underwent focused, unilateral reoperation. A significantly higher rate of postoperative complications occurred in the initial standard cervical exploration group (42% vs 15%, P = .03) that could not be explained by differences in the rates of symptomatic hypocalcemia (P = .5). The type of prior parathyroidectomy was significantly associated with postoperative complications (odds ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 15.7, P = .04). In a multivariable logistic regression model that included body mass index, type of operation (for initial and reoperation), and initial operation performed prereferral as covariates, type of prior parathyroidectomy remained a significant predictor of postoperative complications. ConclusionHigher rates of postoperative sequelae after initial standard cervical exploration should be considered before performing routine 4-gland exploration.

Predictors of postoperative complications in elderly and oldest old patients with gastric cancer.

The incidence of gastric cancer has been increasing among elderly persons in Japan. This study aimed to clarify risk factors for postoperative complications in oldest old patients with gastric cancer. One-hundred ninety patients more than 75 years old with gastric cancer underwent gastrectomy between 2000 and 2011. Patients were classified into two groups: group A included 29 patients who were 85 years or older (oldest old patients), and group B included 161 patients who were 75-84 years of age. Perioperative parameters associated with complications were compared in each group. The preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate was significantly lower in group A (p = 0.03). The two groups significantly differed in performance status (p = 0.018). Patients in group A received a lesser extent of lymph node dissection and had fewer lymph nodes excised. As a result, the duration of the operation was significantly shorter in group A. There were no significant differences in the frequency or grade of total complications or mortality between the two groups. Operative hemorrhage (>300 ml) and Hiroshima POSSUM (predicted morbidity risk >40) were risk factors in both groups A and B; the risk factors of preoperative serum albumin level and prognostic nutritional index (PNI) were specific to group A. Adjustments to the extent of surgery among oldest old patients most likely reduces the incidence of postoperative complications in this group. Preoperative serum albumin level and PNI are significant predictors of postoperative complications in oldest old patients with gastric cancer.

A Nomogram to Predict Major Complications After Hip and Knee Arthroplasty

We aimed to develop a nomogram for risk stratification of major postoperative complications in hip and knee arthroplasty based on preoperative and intraoperative variables, and assessed whether this tool would have better predictive performance compared to the Surgical Apgar Score (SAS). Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a nomogram. Discrimination and calibration were assessed. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) was used to compare to the SAS. All variables were found to be statistically significant predictors of post-operative complications except race and lowest heart rate. The concordance index was 0.76 with good calibration. Compared to the SAS, the NRI was 71.5% overall. We developed a clinical prediction tool, the Morbidity and Mortality Acute Predictor for arthroplasty (arthro-MAP) that might be useful for postoperative risk stratification.

The impact of surgical volume on patient outcomes following thyroid surgery

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of indications for thyroidectomy on patient outcomes and to examine the impact of surgical volume on these outcomes. The nationwide inpatient sample was used to identify all patients who underwent total thyroidectomy (TT) between 2000 and 2009. We examined the effects of surgeon volume and hospital characteristics on predicting patient outcomes. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to examine the effects of the indication for surgical care on postoperative outcomes. Overall, 46,261 procedures were identified. Patients with Graves disease had the highest postoperative complications (17.5%) compared to patients undergoing TT for other benign (13.9%) and malignant (13.2%) thyroid disease (P < .001). After stratification by surgeon volume, Graves disease was found to be a significant predictor of postoperative complications in surgeries performed by low- and intermediate-volume surgeons (P < .05). However, Graves disease was not a significant predictor of postoperative complications when performed by high volume surgeons (P = .81). Hospital volume had an inconsistent and marginal protective effect on postoperative outcomes. Surgery for Graves disease is associated with a higher risk for complications when performed by less experienced surgeons. This finding should prompt recommendations for increasing surgical specialization and referrals to high-volume surgeons in the management of Graves disease.

Can POSSUM accurately predict post-operative complications risk in patients with abdominal Crohn's disease?

Although the majority of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) are young, they are often seriously ill when surgery is required. The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is a risk prediction scoring system estimating 30-day complications. The primary endpoint was to evaluate POSSUM efficacy in this subgroup. The secondary endpoint was to determine any potential correlation between POSSUM, Harvey-Bradshaw Index (HBI), length of stay (LOS) and anastomotic leak. All patients affected by abdominal CD who underwent elective and emergency surgery from 2006 to 2011 were prospectively enrolled in the study. POSSUM expected morbidity and mortality were compared to the observed outcomes (O/E ratio). Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate POSSUM and HBI adequacy. Correlation between POSSUM, HBI, LOS and anastomotic leak was investigated with linear regression analysis. One hundred twenty-three patients underwent abdominal surgery. The overall 30-day mortality rate estimated by the Portsmouth-POSSUM was 1.22% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4-3.6) while no deaths were observed (O/E = 0). The prediction regarding the post-operative complication rate was 22.04% (95% CI 11.1-51.2) and the observed overall morbidity rate was 21.95% (O/E = 0.99). The mean HBI score was 6.85 while LOS was 9.4 days. POSSUM and HBI were found to be significant predictors of post-operative complications at the univariate logistic regression analysis (OR 1.17 95% CI 1.06-1.30 and OR 1.25 95% CI 1.04-1.49, respectively). Linear regression analysis showed a significant correlation between POSSUM, HBI and LOS. POSSUM is precise in predicting post-operative complications in patients with abdominal CD. POSSUM correlates with HBI.