Significant Predictor Of Death Research Articles

National treatment outcome and predictors of death and treatment failure in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Ethiopia: a 10-year retrospective cohort study

ObjectivesTreatment success rate in patients treated for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is low, but predictors of treatment failure and death have been under-reported. Thus, we aimed to determine the national proportion...

Sex-Based Disparities in Outcomes With Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

Although abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) are more common in men, women with AAA have increased morbidity and mortality. Additionally, there are discrepancies among professional society guidelines for AAA screening in women. In this retrospective study from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database from 2003 to 2014, we compared rates of AAA repair (rupture and elective) and AAA-related mortality in men vs. women to identify predictors of death among men and women with AAA. We divided the population into 1) AAA rupture 2) elective AAA repair. The main outcomes included temporal trends in AAA rupture, rupture-related death, AAA repair, in-hospital death, and predictors of AAA-related death. There were 570,253 discharge records for AAA admissions between 2003 and 2014, including 22.8% women and 77.2% men. Women had a higher proportion of rupture (18.4% vs 12.6%, p <0.01). A smaller proportion of women underwent endovascular aortic repair (EVAR) compared with men in the ruptured AAA (13.9% vs. 20.3%, p <0.01) and elective repair (55.7% vs. 67.4%, p <0.01) cohorts. Within the ruptured cohort, a higher proportion of women did not receive repair (46.4% vs. 26.1%, p <0.01). On multivariable analysis, female gender was a significant predictor of death with rupture (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.66) and elective repair (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.36 to 2.22), with both elective EVAR (OR 2.52, 95% CI 2.06 to 3.09) and elective open aortic repair (OAR; OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.33 to 1.68). Propensity score matching confirmed a higher risk of death in women in both the rupture (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.30) and elective repair (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.35 to 1.67) cohorts. In conclusion, AAA poses significant morbidity and mortality, especially in women. Women were more likely to die before repair with AAA rupture and female gender was an independent predictor of mortality in both the rupture and elective repair groups.

FC 116WEIGHT CHANGE AS A PREDICTOR OF MORTALITY IN CHRONIC HEMODIALYSIS PATIENTS

Abstract Background and Aims Serial decrease in body weight can be a prognostic marker reflecting Protein Energy Wasting (PEW) condition in haemodialysis patients. However, the impact of longitudinal body weight changes on mortality have rarely been evaluated. Therefore, we applied landmark analysis and time-scale mixed regression analyses to clarify the impact of long-term changes in body weight on all-cause mortality. Method This study is a post-hoc analysis of the participants in the Olmesartan Clinical Trial in Okinawan Patients Under OKIDS (OCTOPUS) conducted between June 2006 and June 2011. We additionally followed up with the participants until 31 July, 2018. During the OCTOPUS trial, the body weight of surviving participants was repeatedly measured every 6 months. The primary aim of the study was to clarify the association of serial change in body weights and all-cause mortality. The participants were categorized into 4 groups based on weight change slope during the first 2 years (bottom to highest group correspond with the first quartile to the fourth quartile group). We conducted a landmark analysis to evaluate the influence of weight change slope on the subsequent survival with Cox-proportional hazard regression. We also conducted time-scale multilevel regression analyses to draw marginal plots of body weight with a backward time scale to describe the difference in trajectories of body weight between deceased and surviving patients. Results Out of 461 patients in the cohort, 404 participants were analysed in the landmark analysis. Of the participants, 168 (41.6%) were deceased, and 236 participants (58.4%) survived. Although baseline body weights and indices about body components such as a creatinine index were similar among the 4 groups, multivariate Cox-proportional hazard regression showed that the higher rate of body weight loss was associated with higher mortality. Hazard ratios were 2.02 (1.28–3.20), 1.77 (1.10–2.85), 1.00 (Reference), and 1.11 (0.67–1.83) for first quartile, second quartile, third quartile (Reference), and fourth quartile group, respectively (P for trend was &amp;lt;0.001). The association was also described using Kaplan-Meier plots, with the P-value of general Log-rank test being 0.015 (Fig 1a). Marginal plots drawn with a multivariate adjusted time-scale multilevel regression model, which included all 461 participants, with a backward time-scale, showed that body weight constantly decreased in deceased patients, while body weight was longitudinally stable in surviving patients (Fig 1b). These trends of weight change have been soundly observed in sensitivity analyses. Conclusion In chronic haemodialysis patients, the higher rate of body weight loss, such as a decrease in body weight by 1 kg (1.7%) per 6 months, was significantly associated with higher mortality. Persistent loss of body weight is a significant predictor of death among chronic dialysis patients.

MO408OBSTRUCTIVE NEPHROPATHY - STILL PREVALENT DISEASE

Abstract Background and Aims Acute kidney injury (AKI) secondary to urinary obstruction is a common urological-nephrological problem. In this retrospective study, our goals were to describe the etiology, management and outcomes of patients with obstructive nephropathy who were hospitalized at Nephrology Department during 2019. Method AKI was defined by the RIFLE classification. Diagnosis of obstruction was defined by ultrasound imaging, intravenous pyelography and CT scan. Results During 2019 AKI secondary to urinary obstruction was diagnosed to 64 patients. 73% of them were male, average age 65 ± 16 years. About 60% of the patients had bilateral hydronephrosis, chronic kidney disease and anuria duration longer than 24h. The following desobstructive procedures were applied: urinary catheterization to 33 patients, percutaneous nephrostomy tube to 14 patients, double-J stent to 7 and other procedures to 10 patients. The most common causes of obstruction were malignancy and benign prostatic hyperplasia 60%, calculosis 17%, and other causes 20% such as neurogenic bladder and retroperitoneal fibrosis. As many as 30% of patients required acute hemodialysis treatment, of which 6% remained on a chronic program in period of three months. Out of all, 30% of patients had a partial recovery of kidney function, while 20% had complete recovery. The most common complication was infection and bleeding. The univariate logistic regression, adjusted for age and hemodialysis treatment, has shown that significant independent predictors for chronic kidney disease progression were anuria duration &amp;gt;24h (RR 2.21; 95% CI 0.014-1.03; p=0.05), polyuria duration (RR 2.11; 95% CI 1.112-3.98; p=0.02) and duration of hospital treatment (RR 9.16; 95% CI 2.102-39.94; p=0.03). The most significant predictor of death was duration of hospital treatment (RR 9.16; 95% CI 2.102-3.399; p=0.003). Multivariate logistic regression did not shown significance any of the above risk factors. Conclusion Given that third of patients with obstructive nephropathy require acute HD, 6% remain in chronic HD, and almost one third require rehospitalization, close cooperation between a nephrologist and urologist is required. Rapid desobstructive procedures and careful monitoring after desobstruction is warranted. Requirement of regular screening remains opened for obstruction in vulnerable populations.

MO408OBSTRUCTIVE NEPHROPATHY - STILL PREVALENT DISEASE

Abstract Background and Aims Acute kidney injury (AKI) secondary to urinary obstruction is a common urological-nephrological problem. In this retrospective study, our goals were to describe the etiology, management and outcomes of patients with obstructive nephropathy who were hospitalized at Nephrology Department during 2019. Method AKI was defined by the RIFLE classification. Diagnosis of obstruction was defined by ultrasound imaging, intravenous pyelography and CT scan. Results During 2019 AKI secondary to urinary obstruction was diagnosed to 64 patients. 73% of them were male, average age 65 ± 16 years. About 60% of the patients had bilateral hydronephrosis, chronic kidney disease and anuria duration longer than 24h. The following desobstructive procedures were applied: urinary catheterization to 33 patients, percutaneous nephrostomy tube to 14 patients, double-J stent to 7 and other procedures to 10 patients. The most common causes of obstruction were malignancy and benign prostatic hyperplasia 60%, calculosis 17%, and other causes 20% such as neurogenic bladder and retroperitoneal fibrosis. As many as 30% of patients required acute hemodialysis treatment, of which 6% remained on a chronic program in period of three months. Out of all, 30% of patients had a partial recovery of kidney function, while 20% had complete recovery. The most common complication was infection and bleeding. The univariate logistic regression, adjusted for age and hemodialysis treatment, has shown that significant independent predictors for chronic kidney disease progression were anuria duration &amp;gt;24h (RR 2.21; 95% CI 0.014-1.03; p=0.05), polyuria duration (RR 2.11; 95% CI 1.112-3.98; p=0.02) and duration of hospital treatment (RR 9.16; 95% CI 2.102-39.94; p=0.03). The most significant predictor of death was duration of hospital treatment (RR 9.16; 95% CI 2.102-3.399; p=0.003). Multivariate logistic regression did not shown significance any of the above risk factors. Conclusion Given that third of patients with obstructive nephropathy require acute HD, 6% remain in chronic HD, and almost one third require rehospitalization, close cooperation between a nephrologist and urologist is required. Rapid desobstructive procedures and careful monitoring after desobstruction is warranted. Requirement of regular screening remains opened for obstruction in vulnerable populations.

Predictors for mortality of inpatients of COVID-19 in Mumbai

Background: The estimation of risk factors for death can help in modifying the screening, treatment strategy and saving valuable lives. The published data about this topic from India is scarce. We aim to explore the risk factors of in-hospital deaths for COVID-19 patients.Methods: This was a hospital-based cross-sectional study. All COVID-19 patients positive on reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction (RTPCR) test who were admitted in this dedicated COVID hospital (DCH) in April to July 2020 and with definite outcome (death or discharge) till end of September 2020 were included in this study. To explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used.Results: Of the 6195 patients, 450 (7.26%) died. Age 40-60 years [AOR (CI)=4.53 (2.71-7.58)], age &gt;60 years [AOR (CI)=17.42 (10.55-28.75)], suffering from diabetes mellitus [AOR (CI)=2.08 (1.66-2.6)], cardiovascular diseases [AOR (CI)=1.57 (1.14-2.17)], hypertension [AOR (CI)=1.43 (1.14-1.8)], chronic kidney diseases [AOR (CI)=2.78(2.02-3.82)] were found to be significant predictors of death after adjusting for potential confounders.Conclusions: Age &gt;40 years, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, chronic kidney diseases are the independent predictors for mortality in COVID-19. These high risk groups should be given special attention for screening and treatment.

Machine learning prediction of COVID-19 mortality in cancer patients.

1558 Background: COVID-19 is a challenge for clinical decision-making in cancer patients and the allocation of healthcare resources. An accurate prognosis prediction to effectively triage patients is needed, especially in the community oncology practice. Methods:Nationwide cohort from Oncoclínicas Brazil was used to validate previously developed multivariable logistic regression (mLR) model (Ferrari et al, JCO GO 2021) and to construct a machine learning Random Forest (RF) algorithm as predictor of 30-day mortality after SARS-CoV-2 detection by RT-PCR in cancer patients diagnosed in an outpatient setting. To find the most important baseline clinical determinants of early COVID-19-related death via Gini index, a RF with 100,000 trees was trained in 75% of the dataset, and the performance was assessed in the remaining 25%. We then compared the accuracy of different models in terms of sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC). Results:From March to December 2020, 533 patients with COVID-19 were prospectively registered in the database. Median age was 60 years (19-93) and 67% were female. Most frequent cancers were breast in 34%, hematological in 16%, and gastrointestinal in 15%. Comorbidities were common (52%), as was current/former smoking history (17%). Most patients were on active systemic therapy or radiotherapy (84%) in the advanced or metastatic disease setting (55%). The overall mortality rate was 15% (CI95% 12%-18%). We validated the original mLR model trained in the first 198 patients: management in a non-curative setting (odds ratio [OR] 3.7), age ≥ 60 years (OR 2.3), and current/former smoking (OR 1.9) were significant predictors of death in the expanded cohort. Presence of comorbidities (OR 1.9) also defined poor outcome in the updated mLR model, which yielded low sensitivity (74%), specificity (68%) and AUC (0.78). With RF modeling, the most significant predictors of 30-day death after COVID-19 (in decreasing order) were older age, treatment of advanced or metastatic disease, tumor type (respiratory tract, brain and unknown primary cancers had higher mortality), COVID-related symptom burden at baseline evaluation and treatment regimen (immunotherapy combinations had higher mortality). The RF model demonstrated high sensitivity (89%), specificity (88%) and AUC (0.96). Conclusions:The results highlight the possibility that machine learning algorithms are able to predict early mortality after COVID-19 in cancer patients with high accuracy. The proposed prediction model may be helpful in the prompt identification of high-risk patients based on clinical features alone, without having to wait for the results of additional tests such as laboratory or radiologic studies. It can also help prioritize medical resources and redefine vaccination strategies. A web-based mortality risk calculator will be created for clinical decision support.

Improvement in Midline Shift Is a Positive Prognostic Predictor for Malignant Middle Cerebral Artery Infarction Patients Undergoing Decompressive Craniectomy.

Objective: The aim of this retrospective study is to evaluate the risk factors of malignant middle cerebral artery infarction (MMCAI) patients and explore an applicable prognostic predictor for MMCAI patients undergoing decompressive craniectomy (DC).Methods: Clinical data from the period 2012–2017 were retrospectively evaluated. Forty-three consecutive MMCAI patients undergoing DC were enrolled in this study. The 30-day mortality was assessed, and age, location, hypertension, pupil dilation, onset to operation duration, midline shift, and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score were identified by univariate analysis and binary logistic regression.Results: In this retrospective study for DC patients, the 30-day mortality was 44.2%. In the univariate analysis, advanced age (≥60 years), right hemispheric location, hypertension, pupil dilation, shorter onset to operation duration (<48 h), improved midline shift (t = 4.214, p < 0.01), and lower pre-operation GCS score were significant predictors of death within 30 days. In binary logistic regression analysis, age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.141, 95% CI 1.011–1.287], the improvement of the midline shift (OR = 0.764, 95% CI 0.59–0.988), and pupillary dilation (OR = 15.10, 95% CI 1.374–165.954) were independent influencing factors. For the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of the relationship between post-operation outcomes and midline shift improvement, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.844, and the cutoff point of midline shift improvement was 0.83 cm.Conclusion: Improved midline shift was a significant predictor of 30-day mortality. The improved midline shift of >0.83 cm indicated survival at 30 days.

Pre-operative ankle-brachial index for cardiovascular risk assessment in simultaneous pancreas\u2013kidney transplant recipients: a simple and elegant strategy!

BackgroundPatients with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus type 1 (IDDM1) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) undergoing simultaneous pancreas kidney transplantation (SPKT) are a population with diffuse atherosclerosis and elevated risk of cardio- and cerebrovascular morbidity and mortality. We aimed to investigate the feasibility of preoperative screening for peripheral arterial disease (PAD), specifically ankle-brachial index (ABI) testing, to predict peri- and postoperative outcomes in SPKT recipients.MethodsMedical data (2000–2016) from all patients with IDDM and ESKD undergoing SPKT at our transplant center were retrospectively analyzed. The correlation between PAD (defined by an abnormal ABI before SPKT and graft failure and mortality rates as primary end points, and the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular and peripheral vascular complications as secondary end points were investigated after adjustment for known cardiovascular risk factors.ResultsAmong 101 SPKT recipients in our transplant population who underwent structured physiological arterial studies, 17 patients (17%) were diagnosed with PAD before transplantation. PAD, as defined by a low ABI index, was an independent and significant predictor of death (HR, 2.99 (95% CI 1.00–8.87), p = 0.049) and pancreas graft failure (HR, 4.3 (95% CI 1.24–14.91), p = 0.022). No significant differences were observed for kidney graft failure (HR 1.85 (95% CI 0.76–4.50), p = 0.178). In terms of the secondary outcomes, patients with PAD were more likely to have myocardial infarction, stroke, limb ischemia, gangrene or amputation (HR, 2.90 (95% CI 1.19–7.04), p = 0.019).ConclusionsPre-transplant screening for PAD and cardiovascular risk factors with non-invasive ABI testing may help to reduce perioperative complications in high-risk patients. Future research on long-term outcomes might provide more in depth insights in optimal treatment strategies for PAD among SPKT recipients.

Usefulness of Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio at Recurrence for Predicting Long-Term Outcomes in Patients with Recurrent Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Although radical esophagectomy with multifield lymph node dissection is a promising treatment to achieve long-term survival for resectable esophageal cancer, survival after postoperative recurrence remains poor. To select the optimal treatment for patients with recurrent esophageal cancer, simple, objective indicators for predicting of long-term outcomes are needed. We conducted a single-institution, retrospective cohort study between 2004 and 2019, wherein 586 patients underwent transthoracic esophagectomy for primary esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Of these, 133 patients with postoperative recurrence were included in this analysis. Several predictors of survival after recurrence were investigated. Among all patients, the 1- and 3-year survival rates after recurrence were 48.0% and 23.1%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) at recurrence was identified as a significant predictor of death after recurrence (hazard ratio 1.061; 95% confidence interval 1.002-1.125; p = 0.043). Time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curves showed that the area under the curve value of the NLR at recurrence was superior to the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score at recurrence in all terms. To simulate the clinical decision process, we set the cut-off NLR at recurrence for survival using survival classification and regression tree (CART) and defined the optimal cut-off value as 3.374. NLR at recurrence was a significant indicator of survival after recurrence in patients with recurrent esophageal cancer. CART analysis was used to determine the optimal cut-off value for the prediction of survival, allowing the NLR to be used clinically to facilitate decision making.

Changes in diabetes mortality rate in Costa Rica 2007–2017

AimDiabetes mellitus is a major health problem in Costa Rica. Its prevalence is increasing and represents a significant burden. ObjectivesTo determine specific diabetes mortality rates (SDMR) in Costa Rica from 2007 to 2017 and explore it’s potential causes. MethodsDeath certificates (classification CIE-10) were obtained from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos. All-cause mortality, SDMR, ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CVD), and peripheral vascular disease mortality were assessed per year, sex, age and province. We evaluated relationships between SDMR and Index of Human Development (IHUD), performed a multivariate regression negative binomial model analysis and compared SDMR with goals of metabolic control in the primary care setting. ResultsAll-cause mortality and SDMR increased while IHD and CVD mortality rates remained invariable. SDMR was higher in females and in provinces with predominant rural areas. The years of observation, sex, age and province were significant predictors of death at a 5% level in people with diabetes. Reports from primary care setting showed inadequeate public health care coverage and insuficient metabolic control. ConclusionsSDMR increased in elderly patients with specific complications. Age, place of residence and sex predicted SDMR. Unsatisfactory diabetes medical coverage and poorly diabetes management likely explain our findings.

The Comparison of Demographic Indicators and Clinical Risk Factors in Discharged and Dead Patients Due to COVID-19

Introduction: SARS-Covid 2 is a new type of coronavirus which is a serious threat to all countries. Identifying the risk factors and investigating cases between deaths and discharge can increase public awareness to deal with this virus more easily. Methods: We conducted a case-control study on 274 patients with COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and April 30, 2020. The cases were 137 COVID-19 patients discharged from the hospital, and the controls were patients who died due to COVID-19. Patient's information was obtained with demographic, clinical risk factors questionnaire, and their medical records. Result: The results showed that the age over 70, overweight, and high body mass index were significant predictors of death due to COVID-19. Opium use was associated with the death of COVID-19; however, it was not a significant predictor as an independent variable. Histories of chronic disease, as well as clinical signs of dyspnea, were significantly associated with death due to COVID-19. Fever and myalgia were introduced as the supportive clinical signs, so fever and myalgia were significantly more common in discharged individuals. Conclusion: Given that in this study, age over 70, overweight, obesity, opium use, and having clinical symptoms such as chronic diseases and dyspnea have been introduced as the risk factors for death due to COVID-19, so it is recommended due to lack of access to the appropriate vaccine to prevent COVID-19, during the outbreak of the virus. To prevent infection and spread of the virus, further training is required in the use of face masks, reducing traffic in public places, and proper handwashing.

Risk stratification with echocardiographic biomarkers in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: the media echo score.

AimsEchocardiographic predictors of outcomes in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have not been systematically or independently validated. We aimed at identifying echocardiographic predictors of cardiovascular events in a large cohort of patients with HFpEF and to validate these in an independent large cohort.Methods and resultsWe assessed the association between echocardiographic parameters and cardiovascular outcomes in 515 patients with heart failure with preserved left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (>50%) in the MEtabolic Road to DIAstolic Heart Failure (MEDIA) multicentre study. We validated out findings in 286 patients from the Karolinska‐Rennes Prospective Study of HFpEF (KaRen). After multiple adjustments including N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP), the significant predictors of death or cardiovascular hospitalization were pulmonary arterial systolic pressure > 40 mmHg, respiratory variation in inferior vena cava diameter > 0.5, E/e' > 9, and lateral mitral annular s' < 7 cm/s. The combination of these four variables differentiated patients with <10% vs. >35% 1 year risk. Adding these four echocardiographic variables on top of clinical variables and NT‐proBNP yielded significant net reclassification improvement (33.8%, P < 0.0001) and increase in C‐index (5.3%, a change from 72.2% to 77.5%, P = 0.015) of similar magnitude as the addition of NT‐proBNP on top of clinical variables alone. In the KaRen cohort, these four variables yielded a similar improvement in net reclassification improvement (22.3%, P = 0.014) and C‐index (4.0%, P = 0.029).ConclusionsUse of four simple echocardiographic parameters (within the MEDIA echo score), indicative of pulmonary hypertension, elevated central venous pressure, LV diastolic dysfunction, and LV long‐axis systolic dysfunction, independently predicted prognosis and improved risk stratification additionally to clinical variables and NT‐proBNP in HFpEF. This finding was validated in an independent cohort.

Patterns of care and treatment outcomes in locoregional squamous cell carcinoma of the prostate.

260 Background: Primary pure prostate squamous cell carcinoma (PSCC) is a rare, aggressive disease accounting for less than 0.5-1% of prostate cancer diagnoses. PSCC is a distinct entity from adenocarcinoma with historically poor outcomes, often presenting in younger patients with lower urinary tract symptoms and normal PSA. There are currently no established treatment guidelines. Case reports are limited but describe multiple treatment approaches including various combinations of surgery, platinum and non-platinum-based chemotherapy, radiotherapy and androgen deprivation therapy, with selected reports showing longer survival times with a combined modality approach. Methods: Seeking to identify practice patterns and treatment outcomes, we performed a retrospective analysis of the United States National Cancer Database to identify 66 males with locoregional, nonmetastatic primary pure squamous cell carcinoma of the prostate and treated with surgery, chemotherapy, and/or radiotherapy between 2004 and 2015. Clinical factors in analysis included pretreatment PSA, clinical T-stage, histology, treatment modality and demographic factors including age, comorbidity index, race, insurance status and treatment facility type. Patients were stratified into treatment groups consisting of local therapy alone (n = 40, 60%), local therapy and chemotherapy (n = 13, 20%), chemotherapy alone (n = 7, 11%), and observation (n = 6, 9%). Survival analysis was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and analyzed with log-rank testing. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the association between patient characteristics and survival. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify covariates associated with receipt of each treatment modality. Results: With an overall median follow-up of 21.9 months, median survival was 19.7 months for patients treated with local therapy alone, 10.9 months with chemotherapy alone, and 36.5 months with combined local therapy and chemotherapy. Overall survival was not statistically significant between treatment groups. Statistically significant predictors of death included age (HR 1.1, 95% CI [1.03-1.17]) and clinical stage ≥T3a (HR 4.05, 95% CI [1.35-12.2]). Statistically significant predictors of receipt of chemotherapy were clinical stage T3a or greater (OR 34.6, 95% CI [2.65-364]) and age (OR 0.91, 95% CI [0.82-99]). Conclusions: This analysis represents the largest reported cohort analysis of locoregional pure PSCC. Unfortunately, due to the rarity of this disease, prospective or randomized trials to determine the optimal treatment strategy are not feasible. Despite limitations in sample size, and in the absence of prospective data, this analysis suggests the addition of chemotherapy to local therapy is a reasonable treatment approach in appropriately selected patients and may result in improved survival.

Recurrence after radical and partial nephrectomy in high complex renal tumor using propensity score matched analysis

We evaluated the recurrence after radical and partial nephrectomy in patients with RENAL nephrometry score [RENAL] ≥ 10. A total of 474 patients (radical nephrectomy [RN, n = 236] & partial nephrectomy [PN, n = 238]) in a single tertiary referral institution from December 2003 to December 2019 were assessed. Functional outcomes, defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate changes, relapse pattern, recurrence-free survival (RFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) were evaluated using propensity score-matched analysis. The predictors of recurrence and survival were assessed by Cox-regression analysis. 44 patients in the RN group and 88 in the PN group were included without significant differences in preoperative clinical factors after matching. The PN patients achieved significantly higher renal function preservation rates (p < 0.001). There were five recurrences in RN and six in PN. The PN patients revealed 5-year RFS rate (86.8%), 5-year CSS rate (98.5%), and 5-year OS rate (98.5%) comparable to the RN patients (RFS: 88.7% [p = 0.780], CSS: 96.7% [p = 0.375], and OS: 94.3% [p = 0.248]). Patients with a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 23 had lower 5-year RFS rates (85.5%) and OS rates (95.6%) than those with BMI < 23 (RFS: 90.0% [p = 0.195], OS: 100% [p = 0.117]) without significance. The significant predictor of recurrence was the pathologic T stage (hazard ratio [HR] 3.99, 95% confidence [CI] 1.10–14.50, p = 0.036). The significant predictor of death was the R domain of the RENAL (HR 3.80, 95% CI 1.03–14.11, p = 0.046). PN, if technically feasible, could be considered to preserve renal function in patients with RENAL ≥ 10. Nonetheless, PN needs to be implemented with caution in some patients due to the higher potentiality for recurrence and poor survival.

Prognostic factors for stage III colon cancer in patients 80 years of age and older.

Oncological strategies in the elderly population are debated. The objective of this study was to assess the factors predictive of poor prognosis in elderly patients with stage III colon cancer. A retrospective review of demographic, pathologic, treatment, and outcome data from 308 patients with stage III colon adenocarcinoma who had undergone surgery between 2007 and 2014 was conducted. A proportional hazards model was used to assess the association of prognostic factors with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). The 5-year survival rate was 34.4% (95% CI 27.1-39.8%) and Charlson comorbidity index was a significant predictor of death (p< 0.01). The presence of perineural invasion (p= 0.03) and incomplete resection (p < 0.001) were significantly correlated with OS. The postoperative (30days) mortality rate was 11.7%. Adjuvant chemotherapy was significantly associated with better OS (p < 0.001) independently of the regimens. Disease-free survival was significantly correlated with adjuvant chemotherapy (HR 0.63, 95% CI: 0.42-0.97, p = 0.034), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI 5; HR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.05-2.48, p = 0.029), and venous and/or perineural invasion (HR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.03-2.29, p = 0.035). Age, comorbidities, tumor histology, and adjuvant chemotherapy were independent predictors of prognosis in patients with stage III colon cancer. These data can be used to identify elderly patients with poor prognosis and to design future tailored randomized clinical trials. ClinicalTrial.gov No. NCT04526314. Date of registration 25 August 2020.

An early experience on the effect of solid organ transplant status on hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

We compared the outcome of COVID-19 in immunosuppressed solid organ transplant (SOT) patients to a transplant naïve population. In total, 10356 adult hospital admissions for COVID-19 from March 1, 2020 to April 27, 2020 were analyzed. Data were collected on demographics, baseline clinical conditions, medications, immunosuppression, and COVID-19 course. Primary outcome was combined death or mechanical ventilation. We assessed the association between primary outcome and prognostic variables using bivariate and multivariate regression models. We also compared the primary endpoint in SOT patients to an age, gender, and comorbidity-matched control group. Bivariate analysis found transplant status, age, gender, race/ethnicity, body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, COPD, and GFR <60mL/min/1.73m2 to be significant predictors of combined death or mechanical ventilation. After multivariate logistic regression analysis, SOT status had a trend toward significance (odds ratio [OR] 1.29; 95% CI 0.99-1.69, p=.06). Compared to an age, gender, and comorbidity-matched control group, SOT patients had a higher combined risk of death or mechanical ventilation (OR 1.34; 95% CI 1.03-1.74, p=.027).

Longitudinal characterisation of haematological and biochemical parameters in cancer patients prior to and during COVID-19 reveals features associated with outcome

BackgroundCancer patients are at increased risk of death from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Cancer and its treatment affect many haematological and biochemical parameters, therefore we analysed these prior to and during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and correlated them with outcome.Patients and methodsConsecutive patients with cancer testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 in centres throughout the United Kingdom were identified and entered into a database following local governance approval. Clinical and longitudinal laboratory data were extracted from patient records. Data were analysed using Mann–Whitney U test, Fisher's exact test, Wilcoxon signed rank test, logistic regression, or linear regression for outcomes. Hierarchical clustering of heatmaps was performed using Ward's method.ResultsIn total, 302 patients were included in three cohorts: Manchester (n = 67), Liverpool (n = 62), and UK (n = 173). In the entire cohort (N = 302), median age was 69 (range 19-93 years), including 163 males and 139 females; of these, 216 were diagnosed with a solid tumour and 86 with a haematological cancer. Preinfection lymphopaenia, neutropaenia and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were not associated with oxygen requirement (O2) or death. Lymphocyte count (P < 0.001), platelet count (P = 0.03), LDH (P < 0.0001) and albumin (P < 0.0001) significantly changed from preinfection to during infection. High rather than low neutrophils at day 0 (P = 0.007), higher maximal neutrophils during COVID-19 (P = 0.026) and higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR; P = 0.01) were associated with death. In multivariable analysis, age (P = 0.002), haematological cancer (P = 0.034), C-reactive protein (P = 0.004), NLR (P = 0.036) and albumin (P = 0.02) at day 0 were significant predictors of death. In the Manchester/Liverpool cohort 30 patients have restarted therapy following COVID-19, with no additional complications requiring readmission.ConclusionPreinfection biochemical/haematological parameters were not associated with worse outcome in cancer patients. Restarting treatment following COVID-19 was not associated with additional complications. Neutropaenia due to cancer/treatment is not associated with COVID-19 mortality. Cancer therapy, particularly in patients with solid tumours, need not be delayed or omitted due to concerns that treatment itself increases COVID-19 severity.

Prognostic Impact of Obstructive Sleep Apnea in Patients Presenting with Acute Symptomatic Pulmonary Embolism

In patients with pulmonary embolism (PE), there is a lack of comprehensive data on the prevalence and prognostic significance of pre-existing obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). In this study of patients with PE from the Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica (RIETE) registry, we assessed the prevalence of OSA, and the association between pre-existing OSA and the outcomes of all-cause mortality, PE-related mortality, recurrences, and major bleeding over 30 days after initiation of PE treatment. Additionally, we also examined rates of outcomes within 90 days and 1 year following the diagnosis of PE. Of 4,153 patients diagnosed with PE, 241 (5.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.1-6.6%) had pre-existing OSA. Overall, 166 (4.0%; 95% CI: 3.4-4.6%) died during the first 30 days of follow-up. In multivariable analysis, the OSA syndrome was not a significant predictor of death from any cause (odds ratio [OR]: 1.5; 95% CI: 0.8-2.9; p = 0.19). However, patients with pre-existing OSA had an increased PE-specific mortality (adjusted OR: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.3-6.8; p = 0.01) compared with those without OSA. OSA was not significantly associated with 30-day recurrent venous thromboembolism (adjusted OR: 0.6; 95% CI: 0.1-4.7; p = 0.65) or major bleeds (adjusted OR: 1.0; 95% CI: 0.4-2.2; p = 1.0). Findings were similar at 90-day and 1-year follow-ups. In patients presenting with PE, pre-existing OSA is relatively infrequent. Patients with OSA were at increased risk of PE-related mortality when compared with those without OSA.

Abstract 17024: Clinical and Echocardiographic Predictors of Death and Hospital Readmission in Patients With Recent Onset Severe Secondary Tricuspid Regurgitation

Introduction: Tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is often asymptomatic leading to delayed diagnosis. Predictors of decompensation and indications and timing for intervention are not well delineated. We studied the clinical and echocardiographic outcomes of patients with recent onset severe, secondary TR to identify risk factors for death, hospital readmission and hepatobiliary disease. Methods: We queried our institutional echo database to identify all patients with severe secondary TR in 2010 and a TTE within the previous two years prior showing less than moderate disease. Baseline and follow up clinical and echocardiographic variables over the subsequent 10 years were collected retrospectively. We analyzed our data for predictors of death, hospital readmission, and hepatobiliary disease. Results: We identified 34 patients. Over 10 years of follow up, 27/34 (79%) of the patients died. Elevated pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) was a significant predictor of death. PASP was 48 mm Hg in those who died compared to 33 mm Hg in those who survived (p=0.02) (Figure 1). Pulmonary hypertension (PH) and pulmonary embolism (PE) were predictors of readmission. A history of PH was present in 7/10 (70%) of patients requiring readmission compared to 7/24 (29%) in those who did not require readmission (p=0.03). A history of PE was present in 2/10 (20%) of those requiring readmission compared to 0/24 (0%) of those who did not require readmission (p=0.02). No patients were diagnosed with hepatobiliary disease. Conclusions: New onset severe, secondary TR is associated with a high ten year mortality rate. Elevated PASP is a predictor of death and history of PE and pulmonary HTN are predictors for hospital readmission.