Significant Net Reclassification Improvement Research Articles

Cognitive impairment measured by Mini-Cog provides additive prognostic information in elderly patients with heart failure

BackgroundThere has been no study elucidating whether cognitive impairment (CI) can provide additive prognostic information besides that provided by preexisting prognostic factors in elderly patients with heart failure. This study examined whether CI can provide additive prognostic information in elderly patients with heart failure. MethodsThis multicenter retrospective study included 352 patients with heart failure aged ≥75 years. We administered the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Mini-Cog test to assess CI. The Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) risk score was used as a model to incorporate the preexisting prognostic factors. All-cause mortality was considered the prognostic outcome. ResultsThe median age was 85 years old, 47.7% were male. According to MMSE and Mini-Cog, 167 (47.4%) and 159 (45.2%) patients had CI, respectively. The agreement between MMSE and Mini-Cog was fairly low (Cohen’s kappa coefficient 0.37). During the follow-up period of median 346 days, 53 patients (15.1%) died. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, CI defined by MMSE and Mini-cog were individually associated with worse prognosis in older heart failure patients even after adjustment for MAGGIC risk model and log B-type natriuretic peptide levels [CI defined by MMSE, HR: 2.05 (95%CI: 1.16−3.61); and CI defined by Mini-Cog, HR:2.57 (95%CI: 1.46–4.53)]. The area under the curve of receiver operator characteristics curve was numerically greater for Mini-Cog than for MMSE (0.59 vs. 0.52, p = 0.109). Moreover, significant net reclassification improvement was observed when CI defined by Mini-Cog, but not on CI defined by MMSE, was added to the MAGGIC score, and when Mini-Cog, instead of MMSE, was used as a CI assessment tool (0.41, p = 0.004). ConclusionsAmong elderly hospitalized patients with heart failure, CI should be considered as a critical factor for prognosis prediction. Mini-Cog is a potentially preferable tool to assess CI in terms of providing prognostically relevant information compared to MMSE.

Effect of Beta-Blocker Use on Exercise Heart Rate Gradient and Reclassification of Mortality Risk in Patients Referred for Exercise Testing

Impairments in heart rate (HR) reserve and HR recovery are associated with mortality, and the combination of these two, termed exercise HR gradient (EHRG), is a better predictor than either alone. However, the confounding effect of beta-blockade on chronotropic impairment to exercise has not been fully explored; the aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of beta blockade on EHRG. Participants were 2769 Veterans (58.7 ± 11.6 years) who underwent a maximal exercise test for clinical reasons. HR reserve and HR recovery were acquired and divided into quintiles and summed to provide an EHRG score. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) was performed to evaluate the impact of HR reserve, HR recovery and EHRG on all-cause mortality for patients with and without beta-blocker use. During a mean follow up of 10.9 ± 4.1 years, 657 patients died. Among patients without beta-blocker therapy, adding EHRG score to an established model including multiple baseline risk factors and exercise capacity resulted in an NRI of 14.3% (p <0.001). Adding HR recovery instead of EHRG score yielded an NRI of 11.5% (p <0.001), whereas HR reserve had no significant NRI among patients without beta-blocker therapy. In contrast, among participants on beta-blocker therapy, the addition of HR reserve, HR recovery, or EHRG score did not result in any significant reclassification. In conclusion, EHRG was superior to both HR reserve and HR recovery in predicting mortality and provides significant reclassification of risk but only among patients not taking beta-blockers.

Prognostic utility of a geriatric nutritional risk index in combination with a comorbidity index in elderly patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma.

Reflecting the increasing risk in elderly patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL), prognostic predictors other than the International Prognostic Index have attracted more attention. This study presents the first analysis of the prognostic utility of the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) in combination with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) for overall survival (OS) in elderly DLBCL patients. A multicentre retrospective was conducted on a cohort of 451 patients (≥65years). The GNRI and CCI were independent predictors in a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model. There was a nonlinear correlation between the GNRI and OS in a Cox model with restricted cubic spline. Multivariate receiver operating characteristic curves showed a significant improvement in prediction accuracy when the GNRI was added to CCI. Adding the GNRI to CCI yielded a significant category-free net reclassification improvement (0·556; 95% CI: 0·378-0·736, P<0·001) and integrated discrimination improvement (0·094; 95% CI: 0·067-0·122, P<0·001). The decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical net benefit associated with the adoption of the GNRI. The GNRI was not only a predictor of OS but also remarkably improved the prognosis prediction accuracy when incorporated with the CCI, having the ability to stratify the prognosis of elderly DLBCL patients.

Eosinopenia as a diagnostic marker of bloodstream infection in a general internal medicine setting: a cohort study

BackgroundLittle is known about the potential use of the eosinophil count as a predictive marker of bloodstream infection. In this study, we aimed to assess the reliability of eosinopenia as a predictive marker of bloodstream infection.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study was performed in the outpatient department and general internal medicine department of a tertiary university hospital in Japan. A total of 189 adult patients with at least 2 sets of blood cultures obtained during the period January 1–December 31, 2018, were included; those with the use of antibiotic therapy within 2 weeks prior to blood culture, steroid therapy, or a history of haematological cancer were excluded. The diagnostic accuracies of each univariate variable and the multivariable logistic regression models were assessed by calculating the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs). The primary outcome was a positive blood culture indicating bloodstream infection.ResultsSevere eosinopenia (< 24.4 cells/mm3) alone yielded small but statistically significant overall predictive ability (AUROC: 0.648, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.547–0.748, P < 0.05), and only moderate sensitivity (68, 95% CI: 46–85%) and specificity (62, 95% CI: 54–69%). The model comprising baseline variables (age, sex), the C-reactive protein level, and neutrophil count yielded an AUROC of 0.729, and further addition of eosinopenia yielded a slight improvement, with an AUROC of 0.758 (P < 0.05) and a statistically significant net reclassification improvement (NRI) (P = 0.003). However, the integrated discrimination index (IDI) (P = 0.284) remained non-significant.ConclusionsSevere eosinopenia can be considered an inexpensive marker of bloodstream infection, although of limited diagnostic accuracy, in a general internal medicine setting.

Sequential organ failure assessment score on admission predicts long-term mortality in acute heart failure patients.

AimsThe sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score has been a widely used predictor of outcomes in the intensive care unit, whereas short‐term and long‐term survivals of heart failure (HF) patients are predicted by the American Heart Association Get With the Guidelines–Heart Failure (GWTG‐HF) risk score. The purpose of present study was to examine whether the SOFA score on admission is more useful for predicting long‐term mortality in acute HF patients than the GWTG‐HF risk score.Methods and resultsA total of 269 patients (mean age, 78.5 ± 10.9 years; all‐cause mortality, 53.9%) seen in a single facility from January 2007 to December 2016 were enrolled retrospectively. They were followed up for a mean of 32.1 ± 22.3 months. All‐cause death was associated with higher SOFA and GWTG‐HF risk scores. However, no significant difference was observed in the area under the curve value between the scores. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis indicated that higher SOFA scores (P < 0.001) and GWTG‐HF risk scores (P < 0.001) were related to increased probabilities of all‐cause death. On multivariate Cox proportional hazard model analysis, the SOFA score (P < 0.001) and GWTG‐HF (P < 0.001) score were independent predictors of all‐cause death. Incorporating the SOFA score into the GWTG‐HF risk score yielded a significant net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement. On decision curve analysis, the net benefit of the SOFA score model when compared with the reference model was greater across the range of threshold probabilities.ConclusionsIn acute HF patients, long‐term all‐cause mortality can be predicted by the SOFA score. Discriminative performance metrics, such as net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement, and decision curve analysis, for predicting mortality were improved when the SOFA score was incorporated.

Identification of the Uric Acid Thresholds Predicting an Increased Total and Cardiovascular Mortality Over 20 Years.

Serum uric acid (SUA) levels discriminating across the different strata of cardiovascular risk is still unknown. By utilizing a large population-based database, we assessed the threshold of SUA that increases the risk of total mortality and cardiovascular mortality (CVM). The URRAH study (Uric Acid Right for Heart Health) is a multicentre retrospective, observational study, which collected data from several large population-based longitudinal studies in Italy and subjects recruited in the hypertension clinics of the Italian Society of Hypertension. Total mortality was defined as mortality for any cause, CVM as death due to fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, sudden cardiac death, or heart failure. A total of 22 714 subjects were included in the analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analyses identified an independent association between SUA and total mortality (hazard ratio, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.21-1.93]) or CVM (hazard ratio, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.146-2.97]; P<0.001). Cutoff values of SUA able to discriminate total mortality (4.7 mg/dL [95% CI, 4.3-5.1 mg/dL]) and CVM status (5.6 mg/dL [95% CI, 4.99-6.21 mg/dL]) were identified. The information on SUA levels provided a significant net reclassification improvement of 0.26 and of 0.27 over the Heart Score risk chart for total mortality and CVM, respectively (P<0.001). Sex-specific cutoff values for total mortality and CVM were also identified and validated. In conclusion, SUA levels increasing the risk of total mortality and CVM are significantly lower than those used for the definition of hyperuricemia in clinical practice. Our data provide evidence of a cardiovascular SUA threshold that might contribute in clinical practice to improve identification of patients at higher risk of CVM.

Circulating biomarkers for long-term cardiovascular risk stratification in apparently healthy individuals from the MONICA 10 cohort.

The aim of this study was to examine whether high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) carried incremental prognostic value in predicting cardiovascular morbidity and mortality beyond traditional risk factors in apparently healthy individuals. This was a prospective population-based cohort study comprising 1951 subjects included in the 10-year follow-up of the MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease (MONICA) study, between 1993 and 1994. The principal endpoint was death from cardiovascular causes. Secondary endpoints were death from any cause, coronary artery disease, heart failure, and cerebrovascular disease. Predictive capabilities of each of the three biomarkers were tested using Cox proportional-hazards regression, Harrell's concordance index (C-index), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Study participants were aged 41, 51, 61, or 71 years, and equally distributed between the two sexes. During a median follow-up of 18.5 years (interquartile range: 18.1-19.0), 177 (9.1%) subjects died from a cardiovascular cause. Hs-CRP (adjusted standardized hazard ratio (HR): 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.17-1.60), NT-proBNP (HR: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.58-2.29), and suPAR (HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.17-1.57) were all significantly associated with cardiovascular deaths after adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol (p < 0.001 for all). Furthermore, all three biomarkers were significantly associated with significant NRI. However, only NT-proBNP significantly raised the C-index in predicting death from cardiovascular causes when added to the risk factors (C-index 0.860 versus 0.847; p = 0.02). Hs-CRP, suPAR, and particularly NT-proBNP predicted cardiovascular death and may enhance prognostication beyond traditional risk factors in apparently healthy individuals.

Independent and Combined Effects of Telomere Shortening and mtDNA4977 Deletion on Long-term Outcomes of Patients with Coronary Artery Disease.

Aging is one of the main risk factors for cardiovascular disease, resulting in a progressive organ and cell decline. This study evaluated a possible joint impact of two emerging hallmarks of aging, leucocyte telomere length (LTL) and common mitochondrial DNA deletion (mtDNA4977), on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) and all-cause mortality in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). We studied 770 patients (673 males, 64.8 ± 8.3 years) with known or suspected stable CAD. LTL and mtDNA4977 deletion were assessed in peripheral blood using qRT-PCR. During a median follow-up of 5.4 ± 1.2 years, MACEs were 140 while 86 deaths were recorded. After adjustments for confounding risk factors, short LTLs and high mtDNA4977 deletion levels acted independently as predictors of MACEs (HR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.2–3.9, p = 0.01 and HR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.1–2.9, p = 0.04; respectively) and all-cause mortality events (HR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.1–4.6, p = 0.04 and HR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.1–4.9, p = 0.02; respectively). Patients with both short LTLs and high mtDNA4977 deletion levels had an increased risk for MACEs (HR: 4.3; 95% CI: 1.9–9.6; p = 0.0006) and all-cause mortality (HR: 6.0; 95% CI: 2.0–18.4; p = 0.001). The addition of mtDNA4977 deletion to a clinical reference model was associated with a significant net reclassification improvement (NRI = 0.18, p = 0.01). Short LTL and high mtDNA4977 deletion showed independent and joint predictive value on adverse cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality in patients with CAD. These findings strongly support the importance of evaluating biomarkers of physiological/biological age, which can predict disease risk and mortality more accurately than chronological age.

P2437Screening for cardiac relaxation abnormalities using surface ECG wavelets for identifying high-risk cardiac phenotypic abnormalities

Abstract Background The impairment of myocardial relaxation is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality and has been proposed to be a potential tool for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification. We investigated a novel signal-processed electrocardiography (spECG) technique to extract the features of abnormal myocardial relaxation as a screening tool to identify high-risk CV patients. Methods Time–frequency-energy features extracted from continuous wavelet-transformed spECG (Fig. A) were obtained in 1,006 cases. A machine learning model was trained for predicting abnormal myocardial relaxation as a screening tool for detecting high-risk CV patients. High-risk CV phenotype was defined as presence of LV hypertrophy, advanced LV diastolic dysfunction (grade 2 or 3), LV ejection fraction &lt;50%, and/or significant valvular heart disease. Results After training with 5-fold cross validation using data from 810 patients, the machine learning model when tested in an independent hold-out validation set of 180 cases, showed an area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83 (p&lt;0.001) for prediction of myocardial relaxation impairment (Fig. B). A prediction of abnormal relaxation was associated with older patients (64±11 vs. 45±16 years old, p&lt;0.001) with a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease (23% vs. 7%, p=0.004), hypertension (70% vs. 40%, p&lt;0.001), and diabetes (30% vs. 9%, p=0.001). Furthermore, a prediction of abnormal myocardial relaxation was associated with increased likelihood of high-risk CV phenotypes (Odds ratio: 3.93, p&lt;0.001) including LV hypertrophy (Odds ratio: 2.62, p=0.028), advanced LV diastolic dysfunction (Odds ratio: 11.4, p=0.020), and LV ejection fraction &lt;50% (Odds ratio 10.5, p=0.025). Age and gender modified the prediction of abnormal relaxation with higher diagnostic value seen for patients under 60 years (Fig C, AUC: 0.88, p&lt;0.001) and in male patients (Fig D, AUC: 0.87, p&lt;0.001). The algorithm for abnormal relaxation also showed robust prediction of LV ejection fraction &lt;50% (Fig E, AUC: 0.91, p&lt;0.001) in male patients. spECG showed significant net reclassification improvement (0.47, p&lt;0.001) and integrated discrimination improvement (0.16, p&lt;0.001) over traditional surface ECG interpretation using Glasgow score for predicting abnormal relaxation and other high-risk phenotypic presentations. ROC curves Conclusion The spECG provided a robust prediction of abnormal myocardial relaxation and may be a valuable screening strategy for early detection of high-risk cardiac structural and functional abnormalities.

P6339Sequential organ failure assessment score on admission predicts long-time mortality of the patients with acute heart failure

Abstract Background Despite the remarkable advances in the treatment options of acute heart failure (HF), prognosis assessment remains an ongoing challenge. Previous studies revealed only a moderate accuracy of models predicting mortality. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) Score are widely used in the intensive care unit (ICU) to predict outcome and predicted higher long-time mortality in unselected patients in cardiac ICU. In addition, the American Heart Association Get With the Guidelines–Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) risk score allows for risk stratification of 30-day outcome for patients hospitalized with HF. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether SOFA score on admission is useful for long-time mortality prediction in acute HF patients and also to assess the discriminative performance as compared with GWTG-HF risk score. Methods This was a single-centre, retrospective cohort study. Between January 2007 and December 2016, we screened eligible 661 consecutive patients with acute HF administered at our hospital. SOFA score on admission of 294 patients was able to calculate retrospectively. We enrolled 269 patients who could complete follow up evaluation for more than 1 year. Endpoint was all-cause mortality after admission. Additive information of SOFA score was evaluated by area under the curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The 269 patients were included in this study (78.5±10.9 years; 136 men; left ventricular ejection fraction [EF], 49.8±16.6%) during a mean follow-up of 32.1±22.3 months. Patients with all-cause death had higher SOFA score (4.2±2.3 versus 2.8±1.8, p&lt;0.001; AUC, 0.689) and GWTG-HF risk score (44.0±7.6 versus 38.1±7.9, P&lt;0.001, AUC, 0.692). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated higher SOFA scores (P&lt;0.001) and GWTG-HF risk scores (P&lt;0.001) appears to be related to increase probabilities of all cause death. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard model were made with adjustment for SOFA score, GWTG-HF risk score, age, gender and ejection fraction. As a result, SOFA score (hazard ratio [HR] 1.227; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.130 to 1.326; P&lt;0.001), GWTG-HF (HR, 1.054; 95% CI, 1.029 to 1.078; P&lt;0.001) and age (HR, 1.069; 95% CI 1.048 to 1.092; P&lt;0.001) were independent predictors of all cause death and HR of SOFA score was the highest in these parameters. Incorporating SOFA score into GWTG-HF score yielded a significant NRI (0.528 (95% CI 0.291 to 0.765) and IDI (0.046 (95% CI 0.020 to 0.072). In DCA, compared with the reference model, the net benefit for SOFA score model was greater across the range of threshold probabilities. Conclusions The SOFA score, simple and validated mortality risk score can predict long-term all-cause mortality in patients with acute HF. Discriminative performance metrics such as NRI, IDI and DCA were improved on incorporation of the SOFA score for prediction of mortality.

Prognostic Relevance of a Complete Pathologic Response in Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BackgroundA complete pathologic response (CPR) after neoadjuvant treatment is reported to be associated with an exceptionally low risk of recurrence after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of CPR in liver transplantation for HCC.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study was based on 222 HCC transplant recipients. Incidence of recurrence and survival at 5 years were the primary and secondary outcome measures, respectively. Competing risk analyses were applied to evaluate recurrence incidence and its predictors. Propensity score matching was performed to compare the outcomes for patients after neoadjuvant treatment with and without CPR.ResultsNeoadjuvant treatment was performed for 127 patients, 32 of whom achieved CPR (25.2%). Comparison of baseline characteristics showed that the patients with CPR were at lowest baseline recurrence risk, followed by treatment-naïve patients and patients without CPR. Adjusted for potential confounders, CPR did not have any significant effects on tumor recurrence. No significant net reclassification improvement was noted after addition of CPR to existing criteria. Neoadjuvant treatment without CPR was associated with increased risk of recurrence in subgroups within the Milan criteria (p = 0.016), with alpha-fetoprotein concentration (AFP) model not exceeding 2 points (p = 0.021) and within the Warsaw criteria (p = 0.007) compared with treatment-naïve patients who were at risk similar to those with CPR. The 5-year incidences of recurrence in propensity score-matched patients with and without CPR were respectively 14.0% and 15.9% (p = 0.661), with corresponding survival rates of 73.2% and 67.4%, respectively (p = 0.329).ConclusionsThe findings showed that CPR is not independently associated with long-term outcomes after liver transplantation for HCC.

The predictive value of the prognostic nutritional index for postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing on-pump coronary bypass surgery

BackgroundWe aimed to investigate the predictive value of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) regarding the development of acute kidney injury (AKI) after elective coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).MethodsA total of 336 consecutive patients with normal serum creatinine levels undergoing CABG were enrolled in this retrospective study. AKI was defined as meeting Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria based on the occurrence of creatinine changes within the first 48 h after CABG surgery. The patients were grouped according to whether they developed AKI or not into an AKI (−) and an AKI (+) group.ResultsAKI developed in 88 (26.2%) of all patients. The PNI was independently predictive of AKI (OR: 0.829, 95% CI: 0.783–0.877, p < 0.001). Moreover, C-reactive protein (CRP), a history of diabetes mellitus, and positive inotropric usage were independent risk factors for AKI in the multivariate logistic regression analysis. The area under the curve (AUC) of the multivariable model, including positive inotrope support, a history of diabetes mellitus, and CRP, was 0.693 (95% CI: 0.626–0.760, p < 0.001) in predicting AKIN. When the PNI was added to the multivariable model, the AUC was 0.819 (95% CI, 0.762–0.865, z = 3.777, difference p = 0.0002). Also, the addition of the PNI to the multivariable model was associated with a significant net reclassification improvement estimated at 88.2% (p < 0.001) and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.22 (p < 0.001).ConclusionsOur study demonstrated that decreasing the PNI could be associated with the development of AKI after coronary artery bypass surgery.

MRI heterogeneity analysis for prediction of recurrence and disease free survival in anal cancer

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to evaluate the role of image heterogeneity analysis of standard care magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in patients with anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) to predict chemoradiotherapy (CRT) outcome. The ability to predict disease recurrence following CRT has the potential to inform personalized radiotherapy approaches currently being explored in novel clinical trials. MethodsAn IRB waiver was obtained for retrospective analysis of standard care MRIs from ASCC patients presenting between 2010 and 2014. Whole tumor 3D volume-of-interest (VOI) was outlined on T2-weighted (T2w) and diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) of the pre- and post-treatment scans. Independent imaging features most predictive of disease recurrence were added to the baseline clinico-pathological model and the predictive value of respective extended models was calculated using net reclassification improvement (NRI) algorithm. Cross-validation analysis was carried out to determine percentage error reduction with inclusion of imaging features to the baseline model for both endpoints. ResultsForty patients who underwent 1.5 T pelvic MRI at baseline and following completion of CRT were included. A combination of two baseline MR heterogeneity features (baseline T2w energy and DWI coefficient of variation) was most predictive of disease recurrence resulting in significant NRI (p = 0 < 0.001). This was confirmed in cross-validation analysis with 34.8% percentage error reduction for the primary endpoint and 18.1% reduction for the secondary endpoint with addition of imaging variables to baseline model. ConclusionMRI heterogeneity analysis offers complementary information, in addition to clinical staging, in predicting outcome of CRT in anal SCC, warranting validation in larger datasets.

Current Use and Impact on 30-Day Mortality of Pulmonary Artery Catheter in Cardiogenic Shock Patients: Results From the CardShock Study.

Cardiogenic shock (CS) is the most life-threatening manifestation of acute heart failure. Its complexity and high in-hospital mortality may justify the need for invasive monitoring with a pulmonary artery catheter (PAC). Patients with CS included in the CardShock Study, an observational, prospective, multicenter, European registry, were analyzed, aiming to describe the real-world use of PAC, evaluate its impact on 30-day mortality, and the ability of different hemodynamic parameters to predict outcomes. Pulmonary artery catheter was used in 82 (37.4%) of the 219 patients. Cardiogenic shock patients who managed with a PAC received more frequently treatment with inotropes and vasopressors, mechanical ventilation, renal replacement therapy, and mechanical assist devices (P < .01). Overall 30-day mortality was 36.5%. Pulmonary artery catheter use did not affect mortality even after propensity score matching analysis (hazard ratio = 1.17 [0.59-2.32], P = .66). Cardiac index, cardiac power index (CPI), and stroke volume index (SVI) showed the highest areas under the curve for 30-day mortality (ranging from 0.752-0.803) and allowed for a significant net reclassification improvement of 0.467 (0.083-1.180), 0.700 (0.185-1.282), 0.683 (0.168-1.141), respectively, when added to the CardShock risk score. In our contemporary cohort of CS, over one-third of patients were managed with a PAC. Pulmonary artery catheter use was associated with a more aggressive treatment strategy. Nevertheless, PAC use was not associated with 30-day mortality. Cardiac index, CPI, and SVI were the strongest 30-day mortality predictors on top of the previously validated CardShock risk score.

Association of the blood urea nitrogen-to-left ventricular ejection fraction ratio with contrast-induced nephropathy in patients with acute coronary syndrome who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention.

We investigated the predictive value of the blood urea nitrogen-to-left ventricular ejection fraction ratio (BUNEFr) to evaluate the risk of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients who were treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). A total of 1010 ACS patients undergoing PCI were included in this study. The serum creatinine level was measured before and within 48-72h of contrast medium administration. Contrast-induced nephropathy was defined as an absolute increase of 0.3mg/dL or a relative increase of 25% from baseline serum creatinine within 48-72h of contrast medium exposure. To evaluate the relation between BUNEFr and CIN, the patients were divided into a CIN group and a no-CIN group. A total of 74 patients developed CIN (7.3%). Patients with CIN were older and had a higher BUNEFr than those without. Multivariate analysis showed that age, hypotension or positive inotrope support, history of stroke, contrast volume, and BUNEFr (OR 10.59, 95% CI 2.803-40.070, p = 0.001) were independent predictors of CIN. For the development of CIN, the AUC of a multivariable model that included hypotension or positive inotrope support, history of stroke, and contrast volume was 0.813 (95% CI 0.758-0.857, p < 0.001). When BUNEFr was added to a multivariable model, the AUC was 0.859 (95% CI 0.814-0.894, z = 3.204, difference p = 0.0014). Moreover, the addition of BUNEFr to a multivariable model was associated with a significant net reclassification improvement estimated at 49.4% (p < 0.001) and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.044 (p = 0.0138). The BUNEFr may be a useful new predictor of CIN in ACS patients treated with PCI. The inclusion of BUNEFr in a multivariable model could allow improved risk classification in these patients regarding the development of CIN.

Shadows Behind Using Simple Risk Models in Selection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients for Liver Transplantation

To assess the potential influence of replacing Milan criteria with simple risk scores on outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing liver transplantation. Several risk scores combining morphological and biological features were recently proposed for precise selection of HCC patients for transplantation. This retrospective study included 282 HCC liver transplant recipients. Recurrence-free survival (RFS), the primary outcome measure, was evaluated according to Metroticket 2.0 model and French AFP model with Milan criteria serving as benchmark. Patients were well stratified with respect to RFS by Milan criteria, Metroticket 2.0 criteria, and AFP model cut-off ≤2 points (all P < 0.001) with c-statistics of 0.680, 0.695, and 0.681, respectively. Neither Metroticket 2.0 criteria (0.014, Z = 0.023; P = 0.509) nor AFP model (-0.014, Z = -0.021; P = 0.492) provided significant net reclassification improvement. Both patients within the Metroticket 2.0 criteria and AFP model ≤2 points exhibited heterogeneous recurrence risk, dependent upon alpha-fetoprotein (P = 0.026) and tumor number (P = 0.024), respectively. RFS of patients beyond Milan but within Metroticket 2.0 criteria (75.3%) or with AFP model ≤2 points (74.1%) was inferior to that observed for patients within Milan criteria (87.1%; P = 0.067 and P = 0.045, respectively). Corresponding microvascular invasion rates were 37.2% and 50.0%, compared with 13.6% in patients within Milan criteria (both P < 0.001). Moreover, Milan-out status was associated with significantly higher recurrence risk in subgroups within Metroticket 2.0 criteria (P = 0.021) or AFP model ≤2 points (P = 0.014). Utilization of simple risk scores for liver transplant eligibility assessment leads to selection of patients at higher risk of posttransplant HCC recurrence.

Prognostic value of rising mean platelet volume during hospitalization in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention

BackgroundThe prognostic significance of changes in mean platelet volume (MPV) during hospitalization in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients underwent primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) has not been previously evaluated. The aim of this study was to determine the association of in-hospital changes in MPV and mortality in these patients.MethodsFour hundred eighty consecutive STEMI patients were enrolled in this retrospective study. The patients were grouped as survivors (n = 370) or non-survivors (n = 110). MPV at admission, and at 48–72 h was evaluated. Change in MPV (MPV at 48–72 h minus MPV on admission) was defined as ΔMPV.ResultsAt follow-up, long-term mortality was 23%. The non-survivors had a high ΔMPV than survivors (0.37 (− 0.1–0.89) vs 0.79 (0.30–1.40) fL, p < 0.001). A high ΔMPV was an independent predictor of all cause mortality ((HR: 1.301 [1.070–1.582], p = 0.008). Morever, for long-term mortality, the AUC of a multivariable model that included age, LVEF, Killip class, and history of stroke/TIA was 0.781 (95% CI:0.731–0.832, p < 0.001). When ΔMPV was added to a multivariable model, the AUC was 0.800 (95% CI: 0.750–0.848, z = 2.256, difference p = 0.0241, Fig. 1). Also, the addition of ΔMPV to a multivariable model was associated with a significant net reclassification improvement estimated at 24.5% (p = 0.027) and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.014 (p = 0.0198).ConclusionsRising MPV during hospitalization in STEMI patients treated with pPCI was associated with long-term mortality.

Optimized interpretation of fractional flow reserve derived from computed tomography: Comparison of three interpretation methods

BackgroundAn optimal system for interpreting fractional flow reserve (FFR) values derived from CT (FFRCT) is lacking. We sought to evaluate performance of three FFRCT measurements in detecting ischemia by comparing them with invasive FFR. MethodsFor 73 vessels in 50 patients who underwent coronary CT angiography (CCTA) and FFRCT analysis followed by invasive FFR, the greatest diameter stenosis on CCTA, FFRCT difference between distal and proximal to the stenosis (ΔFFRCT), FFRCT 2 cm distal to the stenosis (lesion-specific FFRCT), and the lowest FFRCT in distal vessel tip were calculated. Significant obstruction (≥50% diameter stenosis) and ischemia (lesion-specific FFRCT ≤0.80, the lowest FFRCT ≤0.80, or ΔFFRCT ≥0.12 based on the greatest Youden index) were compared with invasive FFR (≤0.80). ResultsForty (55%) vessels demonstrated ischemia during invasive FFR. On multivariable generalized estimating equations, ΔFFRCT (odds ratio [OR] 10.2, p < 0.01) remained a predictor of ischemia over CCTA (OR 2.9), lesion-specific FFRCT (OR 3.1), and the lowest FFRCT (OR 0.9) (p > 0.05 for all). Area under the curve (AUC) of ΔFFRCT (0.86) was higher than CCTA (0.66), lesion-specific FFRCT (0.71), and the lowest FFRCT (0.65) (p < 0.01 for all). Addition of each FFRCT measure to CCTA showed improvement of AUC and significant net reclassification improvement (NRI): ΔFFRCT (AUC 0.84, NRI 1.24); lesion-specific FFRCT (AUC 0.77, NRI 0.83); and the lowest FFRCT (AUC 0.76, NRI 0.59) (p < 0.01 for all). ConclusionsCompared with diameter stenosis, ΔFFRCT, lesion-specific FFRCT, and the lowest FFRCT improved ischemia discrimination and reclassification, with ΔFFRCT being superior in identifying and discriminating ischemia.

Post procedural risk assessment in patients undergoing trans aortic valve implantation according to the age, creatinine, and ejection fraction-7 score: Advantages of age, creatinine, and ejection fraction-7 in stratification of post-procedural outcome.

Post-procedural risk stratification based on renal function after trans aortic valve implantation (TAVI) was assessed by means of a modified age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score using the lowest glomerular filtration rate (GFR), obtained within 1 week after valve implantation. We refer to the score as ACEF-7 score. The Zurich- and Cardiocentro Ticino TAVI-Cohorts comprised of 424, and 137 patients, who were not on hemodialysis and had already survived the first post-procedural week. Zurich patients were stratified into tertiles of ACEF-7 score (ACEF-7Low ≤ 2.45 (n = 138), ACEF-7Mid 2.46-4.38 (n = 142), and ACEF-7High ≥ 4.39 (n = 144) and compared for survival using KM curves. Euroscore II, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS), and ACEF were also calculated at baseline in all patients and assessed for prognostic significance in predicting the primary outcome of 1-year all-cause mortality using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. Results were then confirmed in the Cardiocentro cohort. Six months (18.1% vs. 6.3% vs. 2.9% P < 0.001) and 1-year all-cause mortality (24.3% vs. 12.7% % vs. 5.8%, P < 0.001), as well as the composite of death or rehospitalization (35% vs. 20% vs. 11% P < 0.001) occurred significantly more frequently in the ACEF-7High compared to the other groups. Both Euroscore II and STS score were not predictors of mortality in our cohort. In a multivariate Cox regression model corrected for gender, Acute Kidney Injury, and baseline ACEF score, the ACEF-7 score was an independent predictor of 1-year all-cause mortality as a per point increment HR 1.512 [95% CI 1.227-1.862, P < 0.001] and as ACEF-7High (≥4.39); HR 5.541 [1.694-18.120]). In addition, the ACEF-7 tertiles showed a significant (P = 0.02) net reclassification improvement of 16% when compared to baseline tertiles of ACEF score, when assessing 1-year all-cause mortality. Post-procedural risk stratification using the simple ACEF-7 score significantly better predicted long-term outcome than commonly used risk-scores. Practical implications could include contrast sparing and renal protection in high-risk patients, emphasizing the importance of preventative measures.

Combining clinical predictors to better predict for the no-reflow phenomenon.

We aimed to determine whether the combination of a CHA2DS2-VASc score (C: Congestive Heart Failure, H: Hypertension, A2: Age ≥ 75 years, D: Diabetes mellitus, S: Stroke history, V: Vascular disease, A: Age ≥ 65 years, Sc: Sex category) and pre-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) thrombus load score was more sensitive at detecting the no-reflow phenomenon compared to the CHA2DS2-VASc score alone or to the thrombus load score alone in patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) who had underwent primary PCI (PPCI). 497 patients with acute STEMIs were divided into two groups: no-reflow group (n: 194) and control group (n: 303). The Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) flow grading and Myocardial Blush Grade (MBG) were used together to define angiographic no-reflow as TIMI flow < 3 (with any MBG grade) or TIMI flow 3 with MBG 0 or 1. Successful reperfusion was defined as TIMI flow 3 with MBG 2 or 3. CHA2DS2-VASc score was significantly higher in the no-reflow group than in the control group (2 [1-4] vs. 1 [0-3], p < 0.001]. Compared with the control group, the no-reflow group had a higher pre-PCI thrombus score (5 [4-5] vs. 4 [3-5], p = 0.001). Compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc score alone, the combined use of the pre-PCI thrombus score and the CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with significant improvements in the ability to predict no-reflow (AUC) (0.65 vs. 0.60, p < 0.05). The addition of the pre-PCI thrombus score to the CHA2DS2-VASc score was related to a significant net reclassification improvement of 6.7% (p = 0.047) and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.036 (p < 0.05). We have found that the combination of a CHA2DS2-VASc score and a pre-PCI thrombus load score was more sensitive in detecting the no-reflow phenomenon than only a CHA2DS2-VASc score in patients who underwent PPCIs for STEMIs.