Significant Decreasing Trends Research Articles

Modes of summer temperature intraseasonal oscillations and heatwaves over the Indian region

Over the Indian region, the pre-monsoon (i.e. April–May) is a dry summer season. The heatwaves, as well as local temperature variations during this season, are not associated with significant large-scale convective heating like the monsoonal modes, and several studies identified several drivers of heatwaves. Heatwaves are extreme events. Are these extremes arising from low-frequency intraseasonal modes, in the same way, extreme rainfall occurs on a synoptic or intraseasonal mode during monsoon? Studies do not explicitly point out the existence of temperature intraseasonal modes during April–May over the Indian region, and it is not clear if some of the drivers of heatwaves can also explain the April–May temperature variations as derivative of some modes. This study identifies the dominant pair of the intrinsic mode of temperature intraseasonal oscillations, which can also explain the heatwave spikes. The empirical orthogonal function based modes are isolated in the detrended surface temperature data to remove the global warming mode. It was found that the subtropical jet acting as a Rossby wave guide drives the first mode with pan India spatial modal signature, while the second mode is driven by the extratropical Rossby wave modes originating from the latitudes of the eddy-driven jet. Another important result is that the first (second) mode principal component shows a significant decreasing (increasing) trend from 1981–2020 period. The observed spatial heterogeneity in warming and the trend in the spatial distribution of extreme temperature events in India could also be explained by the trend in the two modes of oscillation.

Productivity and water use efficiency of Pinus tabulaeformis responses to climate change in the temperate monsoon region

As one of the main afforestation species, Pinus tabulaeformis is an important carbon sink in China. We developed tree-ring chronologies of Pinus tabulaeformis at five plantation sites (Lingkong Mountain (LKM), Fujia (FJ), Heishui (HS), Caijiachuan (CJC) and Jiufeng (JF)), and measured the δ13C values of tree rings using the stable carbon isotope method to calculate intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE). The responses of net primary productivity (NPP) and iWUE to climatic variables were explored. The annual variation in both NPP and iWUE had increasing trends, with lower iWUE increasing rate at LKM site in comparison with those at other 4 sites. iWUE of the young stand was higher than that of the old stand. Annual patterns of the δ13C values showed significant decreasing trends in LKM and CJC but a rising trend in HS. The growth of Pinus tabulaeformis was more sensitive to temperatures, and temperatures exerted positive effects on NPP and iWUE. At the old stands, both NPP and iWUE had closer relationships with temperatures. On the annual scale, precipitation had little effect on NPP and iWUE. Annual mean standardized precipitation evaporation index had a significant influence on iWUE at the young stand. Resistance was positively correlated with recovery, resilience and iWUE, but negatively correlated with NPP. Pinus tabulaeformis at CJC site had the stronger resistance to drought events in comparison with that at LKM and FJ sites. This study provides insight into the responses of Pinus tabulaeformis productivity and water use to climate change, and helps evaluate carbon sink and water-carbon trade-off of plantations.

Assessing short term air quality trend in Malaysia based on air pollution index (APi)

Air Pollution Index (API) is used in Malaysia to determine the daily air quality status, which is calculated based on the daily concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), ground-level ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). This study presents short-term air quality trends based on API from the 52 air quality monitoring stations nationwide between 2010 and 2016. The air quality data and meteorological conditions were obtained from the Department of Environment and used for the API calculation. The API value is classified into six categories, namely: Good (0-50), Moderate (51-100), Unhealthy (101-200), Very Unhealthy (201-300), Hazardous (301-500), and Emergency (above 500). The coefficient of variation (CV) and Mann-Kendall trend test (MK) were used to assess the API variation and trend in each air quality monitoring station. Between the study periods, the API values were largely varied. Observation at 32 air quality monitoring stations have shown significant but small increasing trends, while 12 stations showed significant decreasing trends, and the remaining 8 stations showed no significant trends. The frequency of exceedance (API>50) was used to assess the percentages of unhealthy days. The analysis has found that air quality in Klang Valley was experiencing the highest number of unhealthy days, while the two Malaysian states in Borneo (Sabah and Sarawak) to be relatively less polluted.

Meteorological and hydrological drought hazard, frequency and propagation analysis: A case study in southeast Australia

Study regionSoutheast Australia. Study focusWe investigated meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI). Drought Hazard Index (DHI) was derived based on the probability of drought occurrence and Thiessen polygons using SPI/EDI, whereas Drought Frequency Index (DFI) was derived based on number of drought events, and data length using SPI, EDI, and SSFI. The modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect trends in streamflow data and hydrological droughts. Furthermore, correlation between meteorological and hydrological drought indices for different timesteps was assessed through Pearson’s and Spearman’s rank correlation analysis. Finally, the drought propagation time (DPT) from meteorological to hydrological drought was estimated by ‘theory of run.’ New hydrological insights for the regionOur major findings include: (i) The spatial coverage of DHI and DFI, based on SPI/EDI, illustrate that mainly south and coastal regions of the study area are the most ‘drought-prone’ (ii) A considerable proportion of streamflow stations shows a significant trend of decrease in annual streamflow, with the most dominant year of abrupt change is 1996; (iii) Hydrological droughts are increasing in the study area; (iv) Performance of EDI with SSFI is found to be better than SPI at 3-month timestep; and (v) DPT can be found using ‘theory of run’ however, defined DPT cannot be directly applied to other regions.

Future snow changes and their impact on the upstream runoff in Salween

Abstract. Understanding the hydrological processes related to snow in global mountainous regions under climate change is necessary for achieving regional water and food security (e.g., the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals 2 and 6). However, the impacts of future snow changes on the hydrological processes in the high mountains of the “Third Pole” are still largely unclear. In this study, we aimed to project future snow changes and their impacts on hydrology in the upstream region of the Salween River (USR) under two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) using a physically based cryosphere–hydrology model. We found that the climate would become warmer (0.2 ∘C per decade under SSP126 and 0.7 ∘C per decade under SSP585) and wetter (5 mm per decade under SPP126 and 27.8 mm per decade under SSP585) in the USR in the future under these two SSPs. In this context, the snowfall, snow cover, snow water equivalent, and snowmelt runoff are projected to exhibit significant decreasing trends during 1995–2100, and the decreases are projected to be most prominent in summer and autumn. The future (2021–2100) snowmelt runoff is projected to significantly increase in spring compared with the reference period (1995–2014), which would benefit the availability of water resources in the growing season. The annual total runoff would significantly increase in all of the future periods due to increased rainfall, which would increase the availability of water resources within the basin, but the high peak flow that occurs in summer may cause rain flooding with short duration and high intensity. Compared with the reference period (the contribution of snowmelt runoff to the total runoff was determined to be 17.5 %), the rain- and snow-dominated pattern of runoff would shift to a rain-dominated pattern after the near term (2021–2040) under SSP585, whereas it would remain largely unchanged under SSP126. Climate change would mainly change the pattern of the snowmelt runoff, but it would not change the annual hydrograph pattern (dominated by increased rainfall). These findings improve our understanding of the responses of cryosphere–hydrological processes under climate change, providing valuable information for integrated water resource management, natural disaster prevention, and ecological environmental protection at the Third Pole.

Variability, determinants, and associations with oxidative stress biomarkers of pentachlorophenol among Chinese pregnant women: A longitudinal study

Pentachlorophenol (PCP) is ubiquitous and moderately persistent in the environment, and it is an identified human carcinogen. Previous animal experiments indicate that toxic mechanisms of PCP include oxidative stress. However, no epidemiological study has reported the association between PCP exposure and oxidative stress; such association in pregnant women, a vulnerable population, is of particular interest. This study aimed to characterize PCP concentrations in 2304 urine samples from 768 pregnant women, explore its determinants, and evaluate the associations between PCP exposure and three oxidative stress biomarkers across three trimesters. The median concentrations of PCP (100% detected) in the first, second, and third trimester were 0.61, 0.59, and 0.48 ng/mL, respectively, with a significant decrease trend. The intraclass correlation coefficient of specific gravity (SG)-adjusted PCP was 0.26, indicating high variability for PCP across the three trimesters. PCP concentrations were significantly higher in older, pre-pregnancy overweight, multiparous, high-income, and employed women during pregnancy. Urinary PCP was markedly lower in samples collected during spring compared to other seasons. Linear mixed effect models for repeated measures revealed that ln-transformed SG-adjusted PCP was significantly associated with increased 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG; percent change [%Δ] caused by each interquartile range increase of PCP: 46.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 40.2, 52.5) and 8-hydroxyguanosine (8-OHG;%Δ [95% CI]: 44.8 [40.1, 49.8]), but the positive association with 4-hydroxy2-nonenal-mercapturic acid (HNE-MA) was not significant. PCP was also positively associated with increased 8-OHdG and 8-OHG in each trimester using general linear models, and its associations with HNE-MA were only significant at T1 (%Δ [95% CI]: 19.1 [1.05, 40.3]) and T2 (%Δ [95% CI]: 12.6 [0.32, 26.3]). Our findings provide valuable information about PCP exposure characteristics during pregnancy and the potential effects of PCP exposure on oxidative stress in pregnant women.

Mechanical performance of ocean concrete-filled circular CFRP-steel tube columns under axial compression

The axial compressive mechanical properties of ocean concrete-filled circular CFRP-steel tube columns were investigated in this paper. Eighteen specimens were designed for testing with the position and number of CFRP as the variation parameters. The results show that the final failure mode of the specimens was significantly correlated with the position of the CFRP. The ultimate bearing capacity of the specimens was positively correlated with the number of layers of CFRP. And the ultimate bearing capacity of the specimens containing inner CFRP was higher with the same number of layers. The initial elastic rigidity of the specimen is less correlated with CFRP. The ductility of the specimens based on energy dissipation showed a significant overall decreasing trend with the increase of the number of layers of CFRP. In addition, 139 axial compression data samples of concrete-filled circular CFRP-steel tube columns were collected to verify the axial compression ultimate bearing capacity calculation equation proposed in this paper, and the results indicated that the calculated values can well reflect the measured data. Finally, the finite element model for this test specimen was established and expanded parametric analysis was performed, and the results were in good agreement with the calculation equations.

Spatial-temporal variability of climate indices in Chungcheong provinces of Korea: Application of graphical innovative methods for trend analysis

Climate change causes unprecedented damage in form of climate extreme events such as floods and drought, especially in the agricultural sector. Understanding the variations and trends of climate characteristics is a step toward mitigating climate-related disasters. This study investigates the annual and seasonal spatial-temporal variability of UNEP and De Martonne climate indices from 10 synoptic stations distributed homogeneously over the Chungcheong Provinces in Korea from 1974 to 2019. The spatial assessment of the variability of climate indices was conducted using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation method. The annual and seasonal trends were assessed using innovative trend analysis (ITA), while a further trend assessment on a seasonal scale was conducted using innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) to reveal periodic features and trend transitions. The results of the ITA were compared to the classical Mann-Kendall (MK) and Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend methods. The findings revealed that the Chungcheong Provinces is a wet climate dominance on an annual scale, with a high occurrence frequency of humid to extreme humid climates. However, there are variations in the climatic classes of UNEP and De Martonne indices on the seasonal timescale and across the stations. The spatial assessment indicated the dominance of moderate climatic conditions, while the heavy climatic condition is consistent at the far-end northeast. The ITA shows significant (95% confidence level) upward trends on an annual scale at 50 and 60% of the stations in UNEP and De Martonne indices, respectively. Moreover, an increasingly significant trend dominated the summer and autumn, while spring and winter seasons exhibited significant decreasing trends. The IPTA shows a dominant transition from the increasing area in autumn to decreasing area in winter, while summer consistently transited in the increasing region at almost all the stations. Both climate indices demonstrate homogeneous and isotropic behaviors and nearly stable conditions. Furthermore, ITA and MK trend statistics indicate a good positive correlation (r > 0.50). The findings of this study are important for the ongoing climate-change-related policy in the agricultural sector in Korea.

A Multicenter Evaluation of Trends in Antimicrobial Resistance Among Streptococcus pneumoniae Isolates From Adults in the United States.

BackgroundManagement of pneumococcal disease is complicated by high rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This study assessed AMR trends for Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates from adults with pneumococcal disease.MethodsFrom January 2011 to February 2020, we evaluated 30-day nonduplicate S. pneumoniae isolates from 290 US hospitals (BD Insights Research Database) from adults (≥18 years) in inpatient and outpatient settings. Isolates were required to have ≥1 AMR result for invasive (blood, cerebrospinal fluid/neurologic) or noninvasive (respiratory or ear/nose/throat) pneumococcal disease samples. Determination of AMR was based on facility reports of intermediate or resistant. Descriptive statistics and generalized estimated equations were used to assess variations over time.ResultsOver the study period, 34 039 S. pneumoniae isolates were analyzed (20 749 [61%] from noninvasive sources and 13 290 [39%] from invasive sources). Almost half (46.6%) of the isolates were resistant to ≥1 drug, and noninvasive isolates had higher rates of AMR than invasive isolates. Total S. pneumoniae isolates had high rates of resistance to macrolides (37.7%), penicillin (22.1%), and tetracyclines (16.1%). Multivariate modeling identified a significant increasing trend in resistance to macrolides (+1.8%/year; P < .001). Significant decreasing trends were observed for penicillin (−1.6%/year; P < .001), extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs; −0.35%/year; P < .001), and ≥3 drugs (−0.5%/year; P < .001).ConclusionsDespite decreasing trends for penicillin, ESCs, and resistance to ≥3 drugs, AMR rates are persistently high in S. pneumoniae isolates among US adults. Increasing macrolide resistance suggests that efforts to address AMR in S. pneumoniae may require antimicrobial stewardship efforts and higher-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines.

Trends in reconstructed monthly, seasonal and annual flows for Irish catchments (1900–2016)

Trends in reconstructed monthly, seasonal and annual flows for Irish catchments (1900–2016)

Base-flow segmentation and character analysis of the Huangfuchuan Basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China

In recent years, with the deterioration of the ecological environment, runoff in the Yellow River has been decreasing. Given these phenomena, it is necessary to research the base-flow segmentation methods and its characteristics. The Huangfuchuan Basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin was selected as the research area. This paper calculated the base-flow with commonly used base-flow segmentation methods, including Base-flow index method (BFI), Hydrograph-separation techniques (HYSEP), and the digital filtering methods, and compared the applicability of these methods in the study area. Then the variation characteristics, abrupt change year, periodic change, and future trend of the base-flow were analyzed. The results are as follows: 1) Through the analysis and comparison of several common base-flow segmentation methods, these methods had a marked difference in base-flow segmentation. The variance and extreme-ratio of DF4 in the digital filtering methods were small. The correlation between DF4 and other methods was high. DF4 in the digital filtering methods was the most appropriate method in the research area. 2)The runoff and base-flow index presented a decreasing trend. The annual average runoff was 1,100.27 × 104 m3, and the maximum base-flow was 0.21. The base-flow also showed a significant decrease trend by the Mann-Kendall trend test, the average base-flow was 10,578.35 × 104 m3. 3) The base-flow had periodic variations of 3–6, 7–18, and 19–32. In the 19–32 years time scale, three oscillations alternated between abundant and dry. The whole time was 31 years as the center of the periodic change, the first primary cycle of base-flow change. 4) The base-flow mutation occurred in 1986. The Hurst index of base-flow in the Huangfuchuan Basin was 0.84. It was shown that the trend of future development is positively correlated with past change, showing a trend of continuous decrease. Selecting the appropriate method of base-flow segmentation and reasonably analyzing the variation characteristics of base-flow can provide scientific guidance for the ecological environment construction and water resource evaluation in the Huangfuchuan Basin and even the Yellow River Basin.

Dynamic change of COVID-19 lung infection evaluated using co-registration of serial chest CT images.

PurposeTo evaluate the volumetric change of COVID-19 lesions in the lung of patients receiving serial CT imaging for monitoring the evolution of the disease and the response to treatment.Materials and methodsA total of 48 patients, 28 males and 20 females, who were confirmed to have COVID-19 infection and received chest CT examination, were identified. The age range was 21–93 years old, with a mean of 54 ± 18 years. Of them, 33 patients received the first follow-up (F/U) scan, 29 patients received the second F/U scan, and 11 patients received the third F/U scan. The lesion region of interest (ROI) was manually outlined. A two-step registration method, first using the Affine alignment, followed by the non-rigid Demons algorithm, was developed to match the lung areas on the baseline and F/U images. The baseline lesion ROI was mapped to the F/U images using the obtained geometric transformation matrix, and the radiologist outlined the lesion ROI on F/U CT again.ResultsThe median (interquartile range) lesion volume (cm3) was 30.9 (83.1) at baseline CT exam, 18.3 (43.9) at first F/U, 7.6 (18.9) at second F/U, and 0.6 (19.1) at third F/U, which showed a significant trend of decrease with time. The two-step registration could significantly decrease the mean squared error (MSE) between baseline and F/U images with p < 0.001. The method could match the lung areas and the large vessels inside the lung. When using the mapped baseline ROIs as references, the second-look ROI drawing showed a significantly increased volume, p < 0.05, presumably due to the consideration of all the infected areas at baseline.ConclusionThe results suggest that the registration method can be applied to assist in the evaluation of longitudinal changes of COVID-19 lesions on chest CT.

Non-Motherhood between Obligation and Choice: Statistical Analysis Based on Permutation Tests of Spontaneous and Induced Abortion Rates in the Italian Context.

(1) Background: This paper aims to examine two relevant phenomena in the context of public health: spontaneous abortion (SA) and induced abortion (IA). SA is one of the most common complications of pregnancies; IA is a conscious choice that is made by the mother/couple. (2) Methods: Permutation tests were applied to SA and IA standardized rates detected by ISTAT (2016–2020). The NPC test, chosen for its optimal properties, was applied to compare different Italian territorial divisions (stratifying for year and age classes of women) and analyze the trend of years by stochastic ordering. (3) Results: Only for SA, there are significant differences among the three territorial divisions: the South records higher SA standardized rates than the North and the Center; the rates of IA are similar. Relating to distinct women age classes, the SA standardized rates do not show significant differences among the three analyzed geographical areas; different results are highlighted for IA. Stochastic ordering shows that only the IA standardized rates are characterized by a significant monotonous decreasing trend over the years. (4) Conclusion: The SA phenomenon has shown a decreasing trend that could be justified by the progress of science. For IA, we can certainly say that the general decrease in the phenomenon is due to the greater use of contraceptive methods that help to prevent unwanted pregnancies.

Improving surface water quality of the Yellow River Basin due to anthropogenic changes.

Understanding of how changes in diverse human activities and climate contribute to water quality dynamics is crucial for sustainable water environment management especially in the arid and semi-arid regions. This study conducted a comprehensive estimation of the surface water quality change in the Yellow River basin during 2003-2017 and its responses to varied pollution sources and water volumes under socioeconomic and environmental influences. Basin-wide measurements of chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonium nitrogen (NH+4-N) and dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations were used in trend detection. Annual anthropogenic (covering six sectors) and natural (sediment-induced, flow-in from the upstream and stored last year) pollution sources and water components (inflow, natural runoff, water consumption, reservoir storage and evaporation) were compiled for each sub-basin. Bottom-up hierarchical analysis was then performed to differentiate individual contributions. Results showed significant decreasing trends in COD and NH+4-N concentrations and increasing trends in DO concentrations. The middle reaches that traverse the Loess Plateau however remained severely polluted with 11.3-39.0% inferior to level III in 2017. The pollutant load played major positive contributions that gradually increased from upper to lower reaches. Declines in urban, rural and industrial pollution discharges following environmental investments and rural depopulation contributed the most: 78-96% for COD and 55-100% for NH+4-N. The total surface water volume had dilution effects in the upper and middle reaches (3-28%) and condensing effects in the lower reaches (2-37%). Precipitation and vegetation dynamics contributed slightly. The primary unfavorable factors were the growing agricultural pollution discharges and water consumption in the upper and middle reaches that also threatened the lower reaches. This study is expected to provide in-depth insights for the systematic response of regional water quality to combined human interventions and references for water quality management in other arid and semi-arid river basins worldwide.

Remote sensing of chlorophyll-a concentrations in coastal oceans of the Greater Bay Area in China: Algorithm development and long-term changes

Extensive human activities and climate change in recent decades have triggered severe eutrophication problems in the coastal oceans in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) of China. However, a comprehensive characterization of the spatial and temporal patterns of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a, a major indicator of phytoplankton biomass) in this region is not available. Our study attempts to fill this gap by using long-term satellite observations. With massive in situ datasets from underway sampling systems, we developed a novel hybrid Chl-a retrieval algorithm combining the recalibrated OC3 and line-height-based (BL443) algorithms for waters with different turbidity levels. Satellite-retrieved Chl-a values with the hybrid algorithm agreed well with in situ measurements, with an uncertainty level of 33.8 %. Long-term analysis revealed significant decreasing trends over the inner Pearl River Estuary (averaged at 0.054 μg/L yr−1), while significant increasing trends were found in eastern Daya Bay (averaged at 0.035 μg/L yr−1). The developed algorithm is expected to aid routine Chl-a monitoring in the adjacent oceans of the GBA, and the long-term datasets here can serve as critical information for further coastal conservation and management efforts.

Long-term latitudinal effects of precipitation change in global monsoon regions

Global paleomonsoon precipitation evolution is confined to asynchronous responses to global monsoons to shared forcings, including summer insolation, sea surface temperature, atmospheric circulation coupling, and ocean circulation. However, most studies are based on conclusions drawn from single or a few discrete records or deduced from top-down climate models, which limits our ability to understand the latitudinal effect of monsoon precipitation. In particular, precipitation is a locally constrained climate factor. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of global monsoon precipitation over the last 12,000 cal year BP based on modern observations, paleoclimate simulations, paleoclimate records, and monsoon precipitation reconstructions over the past 12,000 cal year BP based on a bottom-up algorithm called climate field reconstruction approaches. The results show that the middle latitude monsoon precipitation is in line with the evolution of the insolation and significant long-term decreasing (increasing) trends in low latitude monsoon precipitation have not occurred over the last 12,000 years BP. For modern monsoon evolution, the monsoon precipitation also changes along the meridional direction, with overall decreasing precipitation in the global monsoon region and increasing precipitation in the monsoon margin area. Monsoon systems at different latitudes all record eight Holocene weak precipitation events, including the Younger Dryas (12,900 cal year BP to 11,700 cal year BP), which can be considered a strong effect caused by a significant reduction or collapse of a meridional ocean circulation system, namely, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Moreover, the low- and middle-latitude monsoon precipitation lags by approximately 2,000 years behind the onset of North Atlantic warming. Taken together, our findings provide important insights into the latitudinal effect of monsoon precipitation at different locations.

β-cell function and insulin sensitivity contributions on incident diabetes in patients with endogenous Cushing’s syndrome

ObjectiveTo evaluate the relative contributions of β-cell function and insulin sensitivity on the deterioration of glucose tolerance from OGTT in patients with endogenous CS. MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed the data of 60 patients with CS and determined the glucose metabolism and β-cell function through OGTT. Their general characteristics were retrieved. A series of parameters for assessing insulin sensitivity and β-cell function was calculated. The logistic regression model was used to investigate insulin sensitivity and β-cell function contributions on incident diabetes. ResultsOf the 60 patients with CS, 10 (16.7%), 21 (35%), and 29 (48.3%) were classified as CS/ normal glucose tolerance (NGT), CS/prediabetes, and CS/diabetes mellitus (DM). Compared with the HCs, the CS/NGT patients had higher HOMA-IR and lower ISI-Matsuda but with a compensatory increase in HOMA-β. Significant decreasing trends were observed in HOMA-β, AUCI/G and ΔI30/ΔG30 among CS/NGT, CS/prediabetes and CD/DM groups. The OR of incident diabetes compared with the high AUCI/G/high ISI group was significant in the low AUCI/G/high ISI group. ConclusionImpairment of the β-cell function had a more profound effect on incident diabetes than decreased insulin sensitivity. An approach based on an OGTT has utility for diagnosing dysglycaemia and β-cell dysfunction in patients with CS.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of forest ecosystem carbon budget in Guizhou: customisation and application of the CBM-CFS3 model for China

BackgroundCountries seeking to mitigate climate change through forests require suitable modelling approaches to predict carbon (C) budget dynamics in forests and their responses to disturbance and management. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) is a feasible and comprehensive tool for simulating forest C stock dynamics across broad levels, but discrepancies remain to be addressed in China. Taking Guizhou as the case study, we customised the CBM-CFS3 model according to China’s context, including the modification of aboveground biomass C stock algorithm, addition of C budget accounting for bamboo forests, economic forests, and shrub forests, improvement of non-forest land belowground slow dead organic matter (DOM) pool initialisation, and other model settings.ResultsThe adequate linear relationship between the estimated and measured C densities (R2 = 0.967, P < 0.0001, slope = 0.904) in the model validation demonstrated the high accuracy and reliability of our customised model. We further simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest C stocks and disturbance impacts in Guizhou for the period 1990–2016 using our customised model. Results shows that the total ecosystem C stock and C density, and C stocks in biomass, litter, dead wood, and soil in Guizhou increased continuously and significantly, while the soil C density decreased over the whole period, which could be attributed to deforestation history and climate change. The total ecosystem C stock increased from 1220 Tg C in 1990 to 1684 Tg C in 2016 at a rate of 18 Tg C yr−1, with significant enhancement in most areas, especially in the south and northwest. The total decrease in ecosystem C stock and C expenditure caused by disturbances reached 97.6 Tg C and 120.9 Tg C, respectively, but both represented significant decreasing trends owing to the decline of disturbed forest area during 1990–2016. Regeneration logging, deforestation for agriculture, and harvest logging caused the largest C stock decrease and C expenditure, while afforestation and natural expansion of forest contributed the largest increases in C stock.ConclusionsThe forests in Guizhou were a net carbon sink under large-scale afforestation throughout the study period; Our customised CBM-CFS3 model can serve as a more effective and accurate method for estimating forest C stock and disturbance impacts in China and further enlightens model customisation to other areas.

Comparision of intravenous magnesium sulphate and lignocaine in attenuation of pressor response to laryngoscopy and endotracheal intubation

Endotracheal intubation and laryngoscopy are noxious stimuli and provoke cardiovascular and autonomic responses because of sympathoadrenal stimulation. Attenuation of significant increases in heart rate and blood pressure decreases the risk of complications.Various pharmacological and non-pharmacological methods have been tried to attenuate hemodynamic response to laryngoscopy and endotracheal intubation. None of the approaches have proved to be ideal.In view of it present study was undertaken to evaluate and compare effects of intravenous magnesium sulphate 30mg/kg and lignocaine 2mg/kg in attenuation of pressor response to laryngoscopy and endotracheal intubation.Prospective randomized controlled study was conducted in which 60 American society of Anesthesiologist 1 patients, aged 18-60yrs, undergoing elective surgery under general anesthesia were selected. Patients were randomized into 2 groups: Group 1 with thirty patients who received MgSO4 30mg/kg and Group 2 with thirty patients who received lignocaine 2 mg/kg intravenous bolus. Anesthesia was induced using premedication glycopyrolate, midazolam, ondansetron injection Fentanyl was administered as analgesic agent. Study drug Injection mgso4 was administered 90sec before induction with injection propofol as induction agent followed by injection succinylscoline to facilitate intubation. Laryngoscopy and intubation response in both groups were studied by recording Heart Rate (HR), blood pressure (BP), at baseline,after administering drug, at laryngoscopy, after intubation, 1min,3min,5minsafter intubation.Study revealed that Group 1 patients had significant decreasing trend in HR and MAP recorded till 5mins after intubation. Mgso4 has vasodilator properties and significantly suppresses release of catecholamines and hence can attenuate stress response to laryngoscopy and endotracheal intubation better than lignocaine.

Site-based vs. species-based analyses of long-term farmland bird datasets: Implications for conservation policy evaluations

Conservation of Europe’s biodiversity increasingly depends on funds invested within Natura 2000 farmland. Performance of these investments is estimated by the official Farmland Bird Index indicator, that merges species-specific trends for farmland species estimated with the standard TRIM method. We here reanalyze the long-term datasets used to calculate the Spanish Farmland Bird Index by computing abundance and richness of selected bird groups at the point census scale rather than by merging species’ trends. We test whether community trends at site scales differed according to agricultural habitat types (annual, perennial, and mosaic croplands) and locations inside or outside Natura 2000 sites, using both the TRIM method and generalized mixed models. Site-based analyses showed a general increase in bird abundance and richness outside the Natura 2000 network, and a general decrease in perennial and mosaic croplands inside it. Increasing trends were due to non-farmland birds occupying farmland, as farmland species showed significant decreasing trends overall, especially inside Natura 2000 sites and for steppic birds. Trends for threatened birds in annual cropland located inside Nature 2000 were positive, but trends for threatened farmland birds were negative overall, especially in mosaic croplands. Results were qualitatively consistent among statistical methods, although quantitative estimates varied widely among methods, habitats, Natura 2000 location, and relevant bird groups. Site-based analyses of long-term databases confirmed overall trends detected by species-based official reports, and complement them by suggesting additional reasons for failures at reverting negative trends in farmland biodiversity. Regionally-targeted conservation measures should be developed and/or extended to improve these results, and their results monitored at the farm scale to complement the low spatial resolution of volunteer-based bird monitoring schemes. Combination of broad–scale citizen science programs with cause-effect, finer-scale studies will help disentangle the causes of the observed patterns to develop better and more efficient recommendations for conservation measures in farmland areas.