Based on the solidification features of ductile iron and affecting factors for ductile iron shrinkage defect, the model of the ductile iron solidification is built and put forward a new defect predictive method EIECAM (Enclosed-Isolated area Expansion and Contraction Accumulation Method) model to predict defect. in DECAM, the liquid shrinkage, solidified shrinkage and graphitizing expansion during solidification are computed dynamically in the enclosed-isolated area , and the effect of graphite expansion on the wall movement is also accounted. Based on this method end cover of QT500 ductile iron casting is simulated and made the defect predictive, study its solidification process and the defect generation position, and make the experimental identification on the defect. It is resulted that the method can be able to predict the casting defect authentically.