Short Time Scales Research Articles

Non‐Stationary Flash Drought Analysis and Its Teleconnection With Low‐Frequency Climatic Oscillations

ABSTRACTFlash droughts, characterised by their rapid onset and significant impacts on local communities and agriculture, pose challenges for monitoring and mitigation efforts due to their unpredictable nature. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the occurrence, characteristics and influencing factors of flash droughts in the Ganga River Basin (GRB) for the period 1981–2020. Flash droughts are identified using the pentad averaged root zone soil moisture (PRZSM). The Mann‐Kendall trend test is used to determine the spatial and temporal pattern of flash drought characteristics. Furthermore, a multivariate flash drought index (MFDI) is developed to account for the combined effects of flash drought characteristics. Finally, wavelet coherence analysis evaluates the relationship between climatic oscillations and MFDI at the sub‐basin scale. Utilising a revised flash drought identification approach incorporating non‐stationary cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), the study identifies flash droughts in the GRB, particularly emphasising higher occurrences in the Chambal and Upper Yamuna Sub‐basins. Analysis of flash drought characteristics under stationary and non‐stationary conditions reveals increased frequency, severity and decline rates, highlighting the impact of evaporation and latent heat flux. Furthermore, the Upper Ganga Sub‐basin demonstrates coherence with the DMI at shorter time scales (1 to 4‐year time scales), while the Lower Ganga Sub‐basin displays a pronounced association with the NINO3.4 index (5.65‐year time scale), indicating the impact of climate oscillations on flash drought dynamics in these regions. These findings provide valuable insights for drought monitoring, prediction and management strategies in a changing climate, emphasising the need for integrated approaches to address the complex interplay between climate variability and flash drought occurrences in the GRB.

Drought‐Rich Periods Are More Likely Than Flood‐Rich Periods in Brazil

AbstractStreamflow exhibits persistent decadal variability; however, it is unclear if the magnitude and spatial extent of these variabilities are symmetric for droughts and floods. Here, we examine drought‐rich and flood‐rich periods in 319 streamflow gauges in Brazil from 1940 to 2020. Drought‐ and flood‐rich periods are detected by computing annual streamflow minima and maxima time series and using scan statistics to verify if events exceeding a threshold follow a Bernoulli process. We contrast streamflow time clustering with rainfall, evaporation, water abstraction, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We detected a higher spatial frequency of drought‐ than flood‐rich periods. For 5‐year return period thresholds, drought‐rich periods are observed in 81% of the basins, 16.7 times the false positive rate (4.8%) and 4.7 times flood‐rich periods (17%). This asymmetry is linked with sharp increases in water abstractions since the 1990s and a higher prevalence of rainfall‐poor periods (41% of gauges) compared to rainfall‐rich (22% of gauges), which we interpret as being further amplified into drought‐rich periods due to an interannual persistence of water storage deficits. Brazil experienced a dry period until the 1960s, extensive flooding in the 1980s, and record low flows from the 2000s onward. Drought and flood‐rich periods are well aligned with rainfall clustering, water abstractions, the AMO and PDO. Droughts‐rich periods are more frequent in shorter time scales (several years to one decade) and flood‐rich periods in longer time scales (a few decades). Our findings highlight the nonlinearity and asymmetry of drought and flood change at decadal scales.

Dynamic modeling and analysis of compressed air energy storage for multi-scenario regulation requirements

Compressed air energy storage (CAES) technology has received widespread attention due to its advantages of large scale, low cost and less pollution. However, only mechanical and thermal dynamics are considered in the current dynamic models of the CAES system. The modeling approaches are relatively homogeneous. CAES power stations have gradually increased the demand for auxiliary services such as frequency modulation mode and voltage regulation mode in addition to the peak regulation mode. Therefore, it is urgent to pay attention to the dynamic response characteristics at shorter time scales. Due to the lack of an accurate and complete dynamic model of the CAES system for multi-scenario adaptation requirements, the development of system optimization design and control technology has been severely limited. The paper establishes a dynamic model of advanced adiabatic compressed air energy storage (AA-CAES) considering multi-timescale dynamic characteristics, interaction of variable operating conditions and multivariate coordinated control. The simulation data is compared with the measured data of the peak regulation, frequency regulation and voltage regulation scenarios of the Jintan Salt Cave CAES (JTSC-CAES). The results show that the deviation of the dynamic model is <7 %, which verifies the validity and accuracy of the proposed AA-CAES dynamic model. The established model and research results provide the theoretical model foundation for dynamic characteristic research, system design and optimization control of the JTSC-CAES.

The 21 August 2021 Catastrophic Flash Flood at Waverly, Tennessee: Harnessing the Warn-on-Forecast System for Confident Prewarning Messaging of Extreme Rainfall

Abstract On the morning of 21 August 2021, extreme rainfall spurred a flood wave on Trace Creek that ravaged Waverly, Tennessee, causing 19 fatalities. Peak 24-h rainfall of 526 mm was recorded just upstream at McEwen, setting the Tennessee 24-h state rainfall record. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall and a Flash Flood Watch were issued 16 and 8 h, respectively, before rain began; however, predicting mesobeta scale extreme rainfall remains an elusive skill for models and humans alike. Operational convection-allowing models not only suggested pockets of heavy rain but also displayed 1) peak values generally less than half of those observed, 2) widely ranging solutions, and 3) erroneous similarly heavy rain elsewhere. Future use of storm-scale ensembles which use rapid data assimilation promises to help forecasters anticipate extrema that may only be predictable at shorter time scales. This work will examine compelling forecasts from a retrospective run of the experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). The authors, who include National Weather Service forecasters who worked the event, discuss how WoFS and its probabilistic framework could influence services during low-predictability, high-impact flash floods.

The Rapid Response of Southern Ocean Biological Productivity to Changes in Background Small Scale Turbulence

AbstractBackground subsurface vertical mixing rates in the Southern Ocean (SO) are known to vary by an order of magnitude temporally and spatially, due to variability in their generating mechanisms, which include winds and shear instabilities at the surface, and the interaction of tides and lee waves with rough bottom topography. There is great uncertainty in the parameterization of this mixing in coarse resolution Earth System Models (ESM), and in the impact that this has on SO biological productivity on sub decadal timescales. Using a data assimilating biogeochemical ocean model we show that SO phytoplankton productivity is highly sensitive to differences in background diapycnal mixing over short timescales. Changes in the background vertical mixing rates alter key biogeochemical and physical conditions. The greatest changes to the distribution of physical and biogeochemical tracers occur in regions with very strong tracer vertical gradients. A combination of reduced nutrient limitation and reduced light limitation causes a strong increase in SO phytoplankton productivity with higher background mixing. This leads to increased summer carbon export but reduced wintertime export over the mixed layer depth, which could alter the strength of the SO biological carbon pump and atmospheric concentrations on centennial to millennial timescales. This study demonstrates the importance of accurately representing diapycnal mixing in ESM to predict SO biogeochemical dynamics and their broader climatic implications.

Fluctuations and extreme events in the public attention on Italian legislative elections

The share of social media attention to political candidates was shown to be a good predictor of election outcomes in several studies. This attention to individual candidates fluctuates due to incoming daily news and sometimes reflects long-term trends. By analyzing Twitter data in the 2013 and 2022 election campaign we observe that, on short timescales, the dynamics can be effectively characterized by a mean-reverting diffusion process on a logarithmic scale. This implies that the response to news and the exchange of opinions on Twitter lead to attention fluctuations spanning orders of magnitudes. However, these fluctuations remain centered around certain average levels of popularity, which change slowly in contrast to the rapid daily and hourly variations driven by Twitter trends and news. In particular, on our 2013 data we are able to estimate the dominant timescale of fluctuations at around three hours. Finally, by considering the extreme data points in the tail of the attention variation distribution, we could identify critical events in the electoral campaign period and extract useful information from the flow of data.

Impact of ice growth on the physical and chemical properties of dense cloud cores

We investigated the effect of time-dependent ice growth on dust grains on the opacity and hence on the dust temperature in a collapsing molecular cloud core, with the aim of quantifying the effect of the dust temperature variations on ice abundances as well as the evolution of the collapse. To perform the simulations, we employed a one-dimensional collapse model that self-consistently and time-dependently combines hydrodynamics with chemical and radiative transfer simulations. The dust opacity was updated on the fly based on the ice growth as a function of the location in the core. The results of the fully dynamical model were compared against simulations run with different values of fixed ice thickness. We found that the ice thickness increases quickly and reaches a saturation value (as a result of a balance between adsorption and desorption) of approximately 90 monolayers in the central core (volume density ~104 cm−3), and several tens of monolayers at a volume density of ~103 cm−3, after only a few 105 yr of evolution. The results thus exclude the adoption of thin (approximately ten monolayer) ices in molecular cloud simulations except at very short timescales. However, the differences in abundances and the dust temperature between the fully dynamic simulation and those with a fixed dust opacity are small; abundances change between the solutions generally within a factor of two only. The assumptions on the dust opacity do have an effect on the collapse dynamics through the influence of the photoelectric effect on the gas temperature, and the simulations take a different time to reach a common central density. This effect is, however, small as well. In conclusion, carrying out chemical simulations using a dust temperature corresponding to a fixed opacity seems to be a good approximation. Still, although at least in the present case its effect on the overall results is limited – as long as the grains are monodisperse – ice growth should be considered to obtain the most accurate representation of the collapse dynamics. We have found in a previous work that considering a grain size distribution leads to a complicated ice composition that depends on the grain size nonlinearly. With this in mind, we will carry out a follow-up study where the influence of the grain size on the present simulation setup is investigated.

Correct Criterion of Crustal Failure Driven by Intense Magnetic Stress in Neutron Stars

Magnetar outbursts are powered by an intense magnetic field. The phenomenon has recently drawn significant attention because of a connection to some fast radio bursts that has been reported. Understanding magnetar outbursts may provide the key to mysterious transient events. The elastic deformation of the solid crust due to magnetic field evolution accumulates over a secular timescale. Eventually, the crust fractures or responds plastically beyond a particular threshold. Determination of the critical limit is required to obtain the shear strain tensor in response to magnetic stress. In some studies, the tensor was substituted with an approximate expression determined algebraically from the magnetic stress. This study evaluated the validity of the approximation by comparing it with the strain tensor obtained through appropriate calculations. The differential equations for the elastic deformation driven by the magnetic field were solved. The results indicated that the approximation did not represent the correct strain tensor value, in both magnitude and spatial profile. Previous evolutionary calculations based on spurious criteria are likely to overestimate the magnitude of the strain tensor, and crustal failure occurs on a shorter timescale. Therefore, revisiting evolutionary calculations using the correct approach is necessary. This study is essential for developing the dynamics of crustal fractures and the magnetic field evolution in a magnetar.

Permafrost Region Greenhouse Gas Budgets Suggest a Weak CO2 Sink and CH4 and N2O Sources, But Magnitudes Differ Between Top‐Down and Bottom‐Up Methods

AbstractLarge stocks of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in northern permafrost soils are vulnerable to remobilization under climate change. However, there are large uncertainties in present‐day greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets. We compare bottom‐up (data‐driven upscaling and process‐based models) and top‐down (atmospheric inversion models) budgets of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) as well as lateral fluxes of C and N across the region over 2000–2020. Bottom‐up approaches estimate higher land‐to‐atmosphere fluxes for all GHGs. Both bottom‐up and top‐down approaches show a sink of CO2 in natural ecosystems (bottom‐up: −29 (−709, 455), top‐down: −587 (−862, −312) Tg CO2‐C yr−1) and sources of CH4 (bottom‐up: 38 (22, 53), top‐down: 15 (11, 18) Tg CH4‐C yr−1) and N2O (bottom‐up: 0.7 (0.1, 1.3), top‐down: 0.09 (−0.19, 0.37) Tg N2O‐N yr−1). The combined global warming potential of all three gases (GWP‐100) cannot be distinguished from neutral. Over shorter timescales (GWP‐20), the region is a net GHG source because CH4 dominates the total forcing. The net CO2 sink in Boreal forests and wetlands is largely offset by fires and inland water CO2 emissions as well as CH4 emissions from wetlands and inland waters, with a smaller contribution from N2O emissions. Priorities for future research include the representation of inland waters in process‐based models and the compilation of process‐model ensembles for CH4 and N2O. Discrepancies between bottom‐up and top‐down methods call for analyses of how prior flux ensembles impact inversion budgets, more and well‐distributed in situ GHG measurements and improved resolution in upscaling techniques.

The Magellanic Clouds Are Very Rare in the IllustrisTNG Simulations

The Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC) form the closest interacting galactic system to the Milky Way, therewith providing a laboratory to test cosmological models in the local Universe. We quantify the likelihood for the Magellanic Clouds (MCs) to be observed within the ΛCDM model using hydrodynamical simulations of the IllustrisTNG project. The orbits of the MCs are constrained by proper motion measurements taken by the Hubble Space Telescope and Gaia. The MCs have a mutual separation of dMCs=24.5kpc and a relative velocity of vMCs=90.8kms−1, implying a specific phase-space density of fMCs,obs≡(dMCs·vMCs)−3=9.10×10−11km−3s3kpc−3. We select analogues to the MCs based on their stellar masses and distances in MW-like halos. None of the selected LMC analogues have a higher total mass and lower Galactocentric distance than the LMC, resulting in &gt;3.75σ tension. We also find that the fMCs distribution in the highest resolution TNG50 simulation is in 3.95σ tension with observations. Thus, a hierarchical clustering of two massive satellites like the MCs in a narrow phase-space volume is unlikely in ΛCDM, presumably because of short merger timescales due to dynamical friction between the overlapping dark matter halos. We show that group infall led by an LMC analogue cannot populate the Galactic disc of satellites (DoS), implying that the DoS and the MCs formed in physically unrelated ways in ΛCDM. Since the 20∘ alignment of the LMC and DoS orbital poles has a likelihood of P=0.030 (2.17σ), adding this χ2 to that of fMCs gives a combined likelihood of P=3.90×10−5 (4.11σ).

Mosaic evolution of a learning and memory circuit in Heliconiini butterflies.

How do neural circuits accommodate changes that produce cognitive variation? We explore this question by analyzing the evolutionary dynamics of an insect learning and memory circuit centered within the mushroom body. Mushroom bodies are composed of a conserved wiring logic, mainly consisting of Kenyon cells, dopaminergic neurons, and mushroom body output neurons. Despite this conserved makeup, there is huge diversity in mushroom body size and shape across insects. However, empirical data on how evolution modifies the function and architecture of this circuit are largely lacking. To address this, we leverage the recent radiation of a Neotropical tribe of butterflies, the Heliconiini (Nymphalidae), which show extensive variation in mushroom body size over comparatively short phylogenetic timescales, linked to specific changes in foraging ecology, life history, and cognition. To understand how such an extensive increase in size is accommodated through changes in lobe circuit architecture, we combined immunostainings of structural markers, neurotransmitters, and neural injections to generate new, quantitative anatomies of the Nymphalid mushroom body lobe. Our comparative analyses across Heliconiini demonstrate that some Kenyon cell sub-populations expanded at higher rates than others in Heliconius and identify an additional increase in GABA-ergic feedback neurons, which are essential for non-elemental learning and sparse coding. Taken together, our results demonstrate mosaic evolution of functionally related neural systems and cell types and identify that evolutionary malleability in an architecturally conserved parallel circuit guides adaptation in cognitive ability.

Hypoxia evokes a sequence of raphe-pontomedullary network operations for inspiratory drive amplification and gasping.

Hypoxia can trigger a sequence of breathing-related behaviors, from augmentation to apneusis to apnea and gasping. Gasping is an autoresuscitative behavior that, via large tidal volumes and altered intrathoracic pressure, can enhance coronary perfusion, carotid blood flow, and sympathetic activity, and thereby coordinate cardiac and respiratory functions. We tested the hypotheses that hypoxia-evoked gasps are amplified through a disinhibitory microcircuit within the inspiratory neuron chain and that this drive is distributed via an efference copy mechanism. This generates coordinated gasplike discharges concurrently in other circuits of the raphe-pontomedullary respiratory network. Data were obtained from six decerebrate, vagotomized, neuromuscularly blocked, and artificially ventilated adult cats. Arterial blood pressure, phrenic nerve activity, end-tidal CO2, and other parameters were monitored. Hypoxia was produced by ventilation with a gas mixture of 5% O2 in nitrogen. Neuron spike trains were recorded at multiple pontomedullary sites simultaneously and evaluated for firing rate modulations and short-timescale correlations indicative of functional connectivity. Experimental perturbations evoked reconfiguration of raphe-pontomedullary circuits during initial augmentation, apneusis and augmented bursts, apnea, and gasping. Functional connectivity, altered firing rates, efference copy of gasp drive, and coordinated incremental blood pressure increases support a distributed brain stem network model for amplification and broadcasting of inspiratory drive during autoresuscitative gasping. Gasping begins with a reduction in inhibition by expiratory neurons and an initial loss of inspiratory drive during hypoxic apnea and culminates in autoresuscitative efforts. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Severe hypoxia evokes a sequence of breathing-related behaviors culminating in gasping. We report firing rate modulations and short-timescale correlations in spike trains recorded simultaneously in the raphe-pontomedullary respiratory network during hypoxia. Our findings support a disinhibitory microcircuit and a distributed efference copy mechanism for amplification of gasping. Coordinated increments in blood pressure lead to a model for autoresuscitative bootstrapping of peripheral chemoreceptor reflexes, breathing, and sympathetic activity, complementing and extending prior work.

Dysregulation of the fluid homeostasis system by aging.

Chronic dehydration is a leading cause of morbidity for the elderly, but how aging alters the fluid homeostasis system is not well understood. Here, we used a combination of physiologic, behavioral and circuit analyses to characterize how fluid balance is affected by aging in mice. We found that old mice have a primary defect in sensing and producing the anti-diuretic hormone vasopressin, which results in chronic dehydration. Recordings and manipulations of the thirst circuitry revealed that old mice retain the ability to sense systemic cues of dehydration but are impaired in detecting presystemic, likely oropharyngeal, cues generated during eating and drinking, resulting in disorganized drinking behavior on short timescales. Surprisingly, old mice had increased drinking and motivation after 24-hour water deprivation, indicating that aging does not result in a general impairment in the thirst circuit. These findings reveal how a homeostatic system undergoes coordinated changes during aging.

Dating drainage reversal using mineral provenance along the Yangsan Fault, South Korea.

Tectonics is broadly accepted as one of the main factors controlling long-term landscape evolution. The impact of tectonics on short timescales is most often observed through earthquake rupturings that produce localized, metric-scale deformations. Although these deformations significantly affect the landscape, it remains challenging to precisely correlate major landscape changes with these localized earthquake deformations. Therefore, linking instantaneous deformation to long-term morphological changes often involves a thought experiment with potentially limited temporal resolution. At a paleoseismological site along the slow-moving strike-slip Yangsan Fault in South Korea, we employed optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating and detrital zircon analysis on all exposed unconsolidated layers in trench walls. The results reveal a significant provenance shift in the sediments accumulating in the trench, indicating a major reorganization of the drainage network. Based on our OSL and detrital zircon data, we estimate that this change occurred around 70ka. We propose that this drastic drainage reorganization was caused by a combination of very slow, yet continuous, earthquake activity and a temporary reduction in river erosion during the onset of the cold, dry spell characteristic of the MIS4 stage across the Korean Peninsula.

Exploration of Stellar Variability in 20 s Cadence TESS Data

The introduction of TESS’s 20 s cadence mode has given us the opportunity to examine the variation of stellar flux on shorter timescales than ever before. While we find no previously undetected variability at these timescales, we find oscillations outside of the published instability strip in TIC 349902873. We also quantify the stellar variability on specific timescales using the combined differential photometric precision (CDPP). We developed a light-curve creation pipeline for 57 bright stars in TESS’ SCVZ across the HR diagram with extant spectra. From the light curves, we reproduced the scaling previously seen between CDPP and magnitude at all timescales in our data set. We also find a potential correlation between CDPP on the shortest timescales and surface gravity, which may be related to convection and oscillations and impact the relative detectability of exoplanet features.

Exploring the time variability of the solar wind using LOFAR pulsar data

High-precision pulsar timing is highly dependent on the precise and accurate modelling of any effects that can potentially impact the data. In particular, effects that contain stochastic elements contribute to some level of corruption and complexity in the analysis of pulsar-timing data. It has been shown that commonly used solar wind models do not accurately account for variability in the amplitude of the solar wind on both short and long timescales. In this study, we test and validate a new, cutting-edge solar wind modelling method included in the enterprise software suite (widely used for pulsar noise analysis) through extended simulations. We use it to investigate temporal variability in LOFAR data. Our model testing scheme in itself provides an invaluable asset for pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments. Since, improperly accounting for the solar wind signature in pulsar data can induce false-positive signals, it is of fundamental importance to include in any such investigations. We employed a Bayesian approach utilising a continuously varying Gaussian process to model the solar wind. It uses a spherical approximation that modulates the electron density. This method, which we refer to as a solar wind Gaussian process (SWGP), has been integrated into existing noise analysis software, specifically enterprise . Our Validation of this model was performed through simulations. We then conduct noise analysis on eight pulsars from the LOFAR dataset, with most pulsars having a time span of $ 11$ years encompassing one full solar activity cycle. Furthermore, we derived the electron densities from the dispersion measure values obtained by the SWGP model. Our analysis reveals a strong correlation between the electron density at 1 AU and the ecliptic latitude (ELAT) of the pulsar. Pulsars with $|ELAT|&lt; 3^ circ $ exhibit significantly higher average electron densities. Furthermore, we observed distinct temporal patterns in the electron densities in different pulsars. In particular, pulsars within $|ELAT|&lt; 3^ circ $ exhibit similar temporal variations, while the electron densities of those outside this range correlate with the solar activity cycle. Notably, some pulsars exhibit sensitivity to the solar wind up to $45^ circ $ away from the Sun in LOFAR data. The continuous variability in electron density offered in this model represents a substantial improvement over previous models, that assume a single value for piece-wise bins of time. This advancement holds promise for solar wind modelling in future International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA) data combinations.

Phase transition kinetics of superionic H2O ice phases revealed by Megahertz X-ray free-electron laser-heating experiments

H2O transforms to two forms of superionic (SI) ice at high pressures and temperatures, which contain highly mobile protons within a solid oxygen sublattice. Yet the stability field of both phases remains debated. Here, we present the results of an ultrafast X-ray heating study utilizing MHz pulse trains produced by the European X-ray Free Electron Laser to create high temperature states of H2O, which were probed using X-ray diffraction during dynamic cooling. We confirm an isostructural transition during heating in the 26-69 GPa range, consistent with the formation of SI-bcc. In contrast to prior work, SI-fcc was observed exclusively above ~50 GPa, despite evidence of melting at lower pressures. The absence of SI-fcc in lower pressure runs is attributed to short heating timescales and the pressure-temperature path induced by the pump-probe heating scheme in which H2O was heated above its melting temperature before the observation of quenched crystalline states, based on the earlier theoretical prediction that SI-bcc nucleates more readily from the fluid than SI-fcc. Our results may have implications for the stability of SI phases in ice-rich planets, for example during dynamic freezing, where the preferential crystallization of SI-bcc may result in distinct physical properties across mantle ice layers.

Intercomparison of sensible and latent heat flux measurements from combined eddy covariance, energy balance, and Bowen ratio methods above a grassland prairie

We present a comparison of four different methods of measuring sensible (H) and latent (LE) heat fluxes for a year over a mixed grass prairie ecosystem in the Nebraska SandHills [eddy covariance (EC), energy balance/Bowen ratio (EBBR), residual energy (RES), modified Bowen ratio (MBR) methods]. Additionally, we developed a set of quality control criteria for each method and present a simplification to the traditional EBBR setup. Using EC as reference, all methods yielded similar estimates of yearly H (regression slopes (m) ~ 2% from unity; HEC > HEBBR, HRES, and HMBR). For yearly LE, EBBR and RES yielded similar estimates with EC (m ~ 2% from unity; LEEC < LEEBBR and LERES), while a larger bias was found from MBR (m ~ 8% from unity; LEEC > LEMBR). At shorter time scales (~ hourly), moderate scatter was found about linear regression fits for H between EBBR and EC (R2 = 0.81), with smaller scatter between RES and MBR, and EC (R2 = 0.91). For LE, smaller scatter was also measured between EC, and EBBR and RES (R2 = 0.89 and 0.87, respectively), with the larger scatter between EC and MBR (R2 = 0.65). This suggests methods other than EC may be well suited to longer-term applications (≥ yearly), but have larger uncertainty on individual measurements.

Predicted short-term mesoscavenger release gives way to apex-scavenger dominance.

Vultures play a crucial role in scavenging communities as apex scavengers. Scavenging communities in turn are a key component of terrestrial ecosystems, ensuring that dead biomass is removed quickly and efficiently. Anthropogenic disturbances, particularly mass poisonings, have caused crashes in vulture populations in Africa and Asia. We ask if vultures can re-establish themselves in a scavenging community from a point of near extirpation. To allow for maximum knowledge transfer across ecosystems, we focus on an ecosystem that is otherwise considered pristine. We chose Kruger National Park (KNP), a well-documented African scavenging community, as our focal ecosystem and parameterised a mathematical model of scavenging-community dynamics using field data from the park. We predicted the upper limit of vulture population size in an ecosystem like KNP. We then analysed vultures' path to recovery, using this empirically parameterised scavenging-community model. We used perturbation methods to determine how parameter values that may be specific to KNP influence our predictions. Comparisons of predicted vulture carrying capacity with recent population estimates suggest that the cumulative effect of human activities on vulture abundance is larger than previously believed. Our analysis shows that vulture populations can reach their carrying capacity approximately five decades after a poisoning event that would almost extirpate the population. Over shorter time scales, we predict a decade of enhanced mammal abundance (i.e. mesoscavenger release) before the mammals are excluded from the scavenging community. In our study system, jackals and hyenas are the mammalian groups predicted to benefit from the absence of vultures. However, neither group removes biomass as efficiently as vultures and animal carcasses are predicted to accumulate in the ecosystem while the vulture population recovers. In our framework, the carrying capacity for vulture populations is determined by carcass availability. As evidence for an alternative regulating factor is lacking, we conclude that present-day vulture population densities are orders of magnitude below their upper limits. Our results therefore suggest that with a recovery plan in place, the long-term prospects for vulture species and the associated ecosystems are positive.

An Evaluation of Ecosystem Quality and Its Response to Aridity on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Exploring the response of spatial and temporal characteristics of ecological quality change to aridity on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) can provide valuable information for regional ecological protection, water resource management, and climate change adaptation. In this study, we constructed the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform with regional characteristics and completely analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of aridity and ecological quality on the QTP in the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Additionally, we explored the responses of ecological quality to aridity indices at six different time scales. The Mann–Kendall test, correlation analysis, and significance test were used to study the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of meteorological aridity at different time scales on the QTP and their impacts on the quality of the ecological environment. The results show that the ecological environmental quality of the QTP has a clear spatial distribution pattern. The ecological environment quality is significantly better in the south-east, while the Qaidam Basin and the west have lower ecological environment quality indices, but the overall trend of environmental quality is getting better. The Aridity Index of the QTP shows a differentiated spatial and temporal distribution pattern, with higher Aridity Indexes in the north-eastern and south-western parts of the plateau and lower Aridity Indexes in the central part of the plateau at shorter time scales. Monthly, seasonal, and annual-scale SPEI values showed an increasing trend. There is a correlation between aridity conditions and ecological quality on the QTP. The areas with significant positive correlation between the RSEI and SPEI in the study area were mainly concentrated in the south-eastern, south-western, and northern parts of the QTP, where the ecological quality of the environment is more seriously affected by meteorological aridity.