Short-term Wind Power Prediction Research Articles

Short-term wind power prediction and uncertainty analysis based on VDM-TCN and EM-GMM

Due to the fluctuating and intermittent nature of wind energy, its prediction is uncertain. Hence, this paper suggests a method for predicting wind power in the short term and analyzing uncertainty using the VDM-TCN approach. This method first uses Variational Mode Decomposition (VDM) to process the data, and then utilizes the temporal characteristics of Temporal Convolutional Neural Network (TCN) to learn and predict the dataset after VDM processing. Through comparative experiments, we found that VDM-TCN performs the best in short-term wind power prediction. In wind power prediction for 4-h and 24-h horizons, the RMSE errors were 1.499% and 4.4518% respectively, demonstrating the superiority of VDM-TCN. Meanwhile, the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) can effectively quantify the uncertainty of wind power generation at different time scales.

Short-term wind power prediction based on ICEEMDAN-Correlation reconstruction and BWO-BiLSTM

Short-term wind power prediction based on ICEEMDAN-Correlation reconstruction and BWO-BiLSTM

Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Multi-Feature Domain Learning

Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Multi-Feature Domain Learning

Particle swarm optimization-extreme learning machine model combined with the ADA boost algorithm for short-term wind power prediction

In our proposed approach, we integrate ADA boosting with particle swarm optimization-extreme learning machine (PSO-ELM) to enhance the accuracy of wind power estimation, addressing the inherent unpredictability and variability in wind energy. Initially, we refine the thresholds and input weights of the extreme learning machine (ELM) and then construct the PSO-ELM prediction model. ADA Boost is utilized to generate multiple weak predictors, each comprising a distinct hidden layer node. The PSO technique is then employed to optimize the input weights and thresholds for each weak predictor. The final forecast is attained by amalgamating and weighting the outcomes from each weak predictor using a robust wind power forecast model. Experimental validation utilizing data from Turkish wind turbines underscores the efficacy of our approach. Comparative analysis against contemporary techniques such as ensemble learning models and optimal neural networks reveals that our ADA-PSO-ELM model demonstrates superior accuracy and generalizability in predicting wind power output under real-world conditions. The proposed approach offers a promising framework for addressing the challenges associated with wind power estimation, thereby facilitating more reliable and efficient utilization of wind energy resources.

Dual NWP wind speed correction based on trend fusion and fluctuation clustering and its application in short-term wind power prediction

With the continuous growth of grid-connected installed capacity of wind power, the inevitable gap, volatility and randomness of wind power pose challenges to the stability of real-time operation of power system. Accurate wind power prediction (WPP) can effectively ensure the safe and stable operation of power system. At present, the main input of short-term power prediction based on data-driven model is numerical weather prediction (NWP), and its prediction accuracy leads to the failure to effectively improve the accuracy of short-term power prediction. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a dual NWP wind speed (WS) correction method based on trend fusion and fluctuation clustering. First, the WS trend is used to construct a new input feature, and the NWP WS error distribution is determined to establish a more correct and stable mapping relationship with the NWP WS error. Secondly, the error is decomposed by Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), and the trend and fluctuation components are defined by Pearson coefficient. The trend curve features in the short 24h period were extracted from the two dimensions of time and value, and the trend and fluctuation curve databases under different scenarios were formed by K-Medoids clustering. Finally, the trend component is modified by the Attention-GRU model, and the corresponding trend component is searched and matched from the database to correct the fluctuation component. The NWP WS is modified by the superposition of the two components and the short-term WPP is made. Two wind farms in Mengxi, China were used for example analysis, and the prediction accuracy was improved by 10 % and 13.1 % respectively, which demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A novel transfer learning strategy for wind power prediction based on TimesNet-GRU architecture

Currently, data-driven deep learning models are widely applied in the field of wind power prediction. However, when historical data are insufficient, deep learning models struggle to exhibit satisfactory predictive performance. In order to overcome the issue of limited training data for new wind farms, this study proposes a novel transfer learning strategy to address the challenge of less-sample learning in short-term wind power prediction. The research is conducted in two stages. In the pre-training stage, the TimesNet-GRU prediction model is established using data from a source wind farm. Parallel TimesNet modules are employed to extract multi-period features from various input feature sequences, followed by the extraction of long- and short-term features from the time series through gate recurrent unit (GRU). In the transfer learning stage, an effective transfer strategy is designed to freeze and retrain certain parameters of the TimesNet-GRU, thereby constructing a prediction model for the target wind farm. To validate the effectiveness of this approach, the results from testing with actual data from five wind farms in northwest China demonstrate that the proposed method exhibits significant advantages over models without transfer learning as explored in this study.

Interval evaluation of wind power prediction based on skew-slash t distribution

Wind resources have characteristics of stochastic volatility, resulting in wind power forecast errors greatly. The short and medium-term wind power forecast error distribution of the actual wind farm operating system is analyzed, and a sharp peak and thick tail, with heavy tail and skewness characteristics, are presented. A skew-slash t distribution (SST distribution) is proposed to describe the error distribution of short-term wind power prediction, and the parameter estimation is carried out by probability density curve fitting. The fitting results of the wind power forecast error historical data of the Wind power plant based on SST distribution, t distribution, and t Location-slash distribution (TLS distribution) are obtained, and the fitting goodness and prediction accuracy are compared. The results show that the SST distribution can more effectively estimate the wind power prediction interval.

Short-term wind power prediction using a novel model based on butterfly optimization algorithm-variational mode decomposition-long short-term memory

The precise forecasting of wind power output is crucial for the integration of large-scale renewable energy generation into the power grid. It plays a vital role in ensuring safe and stable operation of power grid, diminishing fuel consumption, and minimizing environmental impacts. This research presents a machine learning prediction model that integrates intelligent optimization algorithms and data decomposition techniques for short-term wind power output forecasting. The initial phase of this research develops a prediction model utilizing variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory networks. To mitigate the randomness and uncertainty of wind energy, and improve prediction accuracy, the butterfly optimization algorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory networks. Several in-depth case studies are carried out on the actual wind power generation dataset in mainland China to confirm the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the compared model in terms of prediction accuracy across different seasons, showing good practicality and generalizability.

LSTM Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Data Preprocessing and Variational Modal Decomposition for Soft Sensors.

Soft sensors have been extensively utilized to approximate real-time power prediction in wind power generation, which is challenging to measure instantaneously. The short-term forecast of wind power aims at providing a reference for the dispatch of the intraday power grid. This study proposes a soft sensor model based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network by combining data preprocessing with Variational Modal Decomposition (VMD) to improve wind power prediction accuracy. It does so by adopting the isolation forest algorithm for anomaly detection of the original wind power series and processing the missing data by multiple imputation. Based on the process data samples, VMD technology is used to achieve power data decomposition and noise reduction. The LSTM network is introduced to predict each modal component separately, and further sum reconstructs the prediction results of each component to complete the wind power prediction. From the experimental results, it can be seen that the LSTM network which uses an Adam optimizing algorithm has better convergence accuracy. The VMD method exhibited superior decomposition outcomes due to its inherent Wiener filter capabilities, which effectively mitigate noise and forestall modal aliasing. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was reduced by 9.3508%, which indicates that the LSTM network combined with the VMD method has better prediction accuracy.

Optimized extreme learning machine using genetic algorithm for short-term wind power prediction

Through the much defiance facing energy today, it has become necessary to rely on wind energy as a source of unlimited renewable energies. However, energy planning and regulation require wind capacity forecasting, because oscillations of wind speed drastically affect directly power generation. Therefore, several scenarios must be provided to allow for estimating uncertainties. To deal with this problem, this paper exploits the major advantages of the regularized extreme learning machine algorithm (R-ELM) and thus proposes a model for predicting the wind energy generated for the next hour based on the time series of wind speed. The R-ELM is combined with the genetic algorithm which is designed to optimize the most important hyperparameter which is the number of hidden neurons. Thus, the proposed model aims to forecast the average wind power per hour based on the wind speed of the previous hours. The results obtained showed that the proposed method is much better than those reported in the literature concerning the precision of the prediction and the time convergence.

Short-term wind power output prediction using hybrid-enhanced seagull optimization algorithm and support vector machine: A high-precision method

ABSTRACT Affected by the uncertainty of external environmental factors, wind power generation has significant characteristics of randomness and non-stationarity. Accurately predicting wind power is a necessary technical means to improve the efficiency of wind energy utilization and reduce wind abandonment. Integrating large-scale wind power into the grid has put higher requirements for wind power prediction accuracy. Hence, this study proposes a combined prediction model based on wavelet denoising (WD), hybrid enhanced seagull optimization algorithm (HESOA) and support vector machine (SVM) to predict short-term wind power. The WD technology obtains effective signals from original wind power data, providing a reasonable basis for prediction research. The HESOA is proposed by introducing the Tent mapping, individual self-learning factor and Gaussian population strategy into the original seagull optimization algorithm to optimize SVM’s prediction ability. The case study results reflect that the prediction method is feasible and universal in suppressing wind power generation volatility in spring and winter. The RMSE of short-term wind power prediction is controlled below 65 kW, and the value of R2 is above 98%. This study improves the accuracy of wind power prediction and helps to strengthen the renewable energy consumption level and reliability of wind power grid-connected generation systems.

A short-term wind power prediction approach based on an improved dung beetle optimizer algorithm, variational modal decomposition, and deep learning

Accurate short-term wind power prediction is crucial for the efficient and safe operation of wind power systems. To enhance the accuracy of short-term wind power prediction, this paper proposes a hybrid short-term wind power prediction model, IDBO-VMD-TCN-GRU-Attention, based on the Improved Dung Beetle Optimizer algorithm (IDBO), Variational Modal Decomposition (VMD), Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Attention Mechanism. The IDBO is used to optimize the parameters of the VMD. Then the optimized IDBO-VMD is used to decompose the original data into modal components with lower volatility to fully extract the data features. These modal components are inputted into the TCN-GRU-Attention to predict the short-term wind power and obtain the final prediction value. The model is tested and validated using real data from four different months and compared against 11 other models. Results demonstrate that our proposed model significantly reduces the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by an average of at least 22.86 %, 18.82 %, and 19.99 %, respectively, across the four different months. This indicates that the proposed model provides a superior fit to the data, offers higher prediction accuracy, and holds significant practical value.

A hybrid model with combined feature selection based on optimized VMD and improved multi-objective coati optimization algorithm for short-term wind power prediction

With the continuous global increase in installed wind power capacity and subsequent surge in power generation, the contradiction between the safe operation of the grid and the efficient consumption of new energy after large-scale grid connection has become increasingly prominent. This paper presents a hybrid model prediction method to further improve the stability and accuracy of wind power prediction. Firstly, variational modal decomposition (VMD) optimized by the coati optimization algorithm (COA) is employed to decompose original wind power, mitigating the non-stationary characteristics of the power sequence. Subsequently, permutation entropy (PE) is used to recombine the decomposed components, and the combined feature selection method is achieved by integrating the Spearman correlation coefficient (SCC) and the autocorrelation function (ACF). Then, the multivariate combined model is constructed, and the improved multi-objective coati optimization algorithm (IMOCOA) determines the weight coefficients of each model to enhance the performance of the hybrid model. Finally, research and analysis are conducted from multiple scenarios and time scales using historical operating data from a wind farm in Xinjiang. The experimental results show that the proposed prediction model effectively improves the accuracy and stability of the wind power prediction compared with other popular prediction models.

Short-term prediction of wind power based on grey wolf optimization Elman neural network algorithm

The intermittence and fugitiveness of wind power is one of the significance ekements affecting the quality of wind power. Aiming at the random characteristics of wind power, the output power of short-term wind electricity is forecasted by collecting historical wind speed, power and other parameters of wind farm. A model of Elman network optimized by grey wolf arithmetic (GWO) is proposed to realize short period accurate forecast for wind power. The pattern is verified and analyzed on matlab. Compared with other prediction models, the prediction accuracy is higher, which shows the effectiveness and advancement of the model.

Adaptive temporal transformer method for short-term wind power forecasting considering shift in time series distribution

In wind power prediction, the input probability distributions in the different sub-periods are shifted owing to the strong randomness of the input features, such as wind speed and direction. This may violate the assumption for machine learning that the training and test data meet the condition of being independent and identically distributed, resulting in an insufficient generalization ability of the prediction model that is trained with the training data and applied to unknown test data. To address this problem, this study proposes an adaptive temporal transformer method for short-term wind power forecasting. First, a temporal transformer model with a gate recurrent unit and multi-head attention layers was used to extract the short- and long-term temporal information of the multiple input variables. Then, an adaptive learning strategy consisting of two stages—temporal distribution characterization and temporal distribution matching—was developed to explore the common knowledge hidden in each sub-period. The case results for an actual wind farm in northwest China showed that the proposed method could effectively weaken the adverse effects of the shifts in time series distribution on forecasting and improve the accuracy and generalization of short-term wind power prediction.

An ensemble model for short-term wind power prediction based on EEMD-GRU-MC

As a kind of clean and renewable energy, wind power is of great significance for alleviating energy crisis and environmental pollution. However, the strong randomness and large volatility of wind power bring great challenges to the dispatching and safe operation of the power grid. Hence, accurate and reliable short-term prediction of wind power is crucial for the power grid dispatching department arranging reasonable day-ahead generation schedules. Targeting the problem of low model prediction accuracy caused by the strong intermittency and large volatility of wind power, this paper develops a novel ensemble model for short-term wind power prediction which integrates the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) algorithm, the gated recurrent unit (GRU) model and the Markov chain (MC) technique. Firstly, the EEMD algorithm is used to decompose the historical wind power sequence into a group of relatively stationary subsequences to reduce the influence of random fluctuation components and noise. Then, the GRU model is employed to predict each subsequence, and the predicted values of each subsequence are aggregated to get the preliminary prediction results. Finally, to further enhance the prediction accuracy, the MC is used to modified the prediction results. A large number of numerical examples indicates that the proposed EEMD-GRU-MC model outperforms the six benchmark models (i.e., LSTM, GRU, EMD-LSTM, EMD-GRU, EEMD-LSTM and EEMD-GRU) in terms of multiple evaluation indicators. Taking the spring dataset of the ZMS wind farm, for example, the MAE, RMSE and MAPE of the EEMD-GRU-MC model is 1.37 MW, 1.97 MW, and from 1.76%, respectively. Moreover, the mean prediction error of the developed model in all scenarios is less than or close to 2%. After 30 iterations, the proposed model uses an average of about 35 min to accurately predict the wind power of the next day, proving its high computation efficiency. It can be concluded that the ensemble model based on EEMD-GRU-MC is a promising prospect for short-term wind power prediction.

A wavelet-LSTM model for short-term wind power forecasting using wind farm SCADA data

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system collects massive operation and environment information which directly or indirectly affects the output power in wind farms. Therefore, it becomes an imperious demand to analyze the underlying information from SCADA data for improving the performance of short-term wind power prediction. In this paper, an effective deep learning framework for short-term wind power forecasting based on SCADA data analysis is proposed. A data denoising scheme is designed based on wavelet decomposition. In this method, all SCADA signals (except the wind power signal itself) are decomposed into low-frequency component A and high-frequency component D respectively by the wavelet transform. Then, the maximum information coefficient (MIC) method is applied to choose features that have strong correlation with wind power. Finally, all the selected features and wind power are defined as input vector that are used to train long short-term memory networks. The simulation results based on real data extracted from a SCADA system installed in wind farm indicate that the designed deep learning framework can significantly improve the accuracy of short-term wind power prediction.

Research on the short-term wind power prediction with dual branch multi-source fusion strategy

The smooth operation of the power system imposes high requirements on wind power forecasting. Given the forecasting challenges brought by the coexistence of strong and weak disturbances in wind power data, this paper proposes a hierarchical anti-disturbance mechanism to raise the accuracy of single-point wind power prediction. In the first-level disturbance processing, we prioritize the treatment of strong disturbances in wind power data through a dual-branch multi-source fusion prediction structure. The wind power subsequences with distinct time–frequency characteristics are divided into two sets, processed by the stationary set prediction branch and the drastic set prediction branch, respectively. For the drastic set, we incorporate microenvironmental multi-source data surrounding the wind turbine as input and propose a parallel-structured attention fusion module CA (Convolution attention fusion block) to provide effective data support for the prediction module, then extract rich fusion features through deep temporal LSTM algorithm and ultimately achieve fine-grained forecasting. For weak disturbances that have not been adequately addressed in the previous step, we conduct a secondary treatment through error correction strategy. By employing the hierarchical processing approach, this paper accomplishes a comprehensive handling of disturbances with different intensities. Experimental results on four data sets show that the proposed model DEWFM (Dual-branch and error correction wind power forecast) demonstrates remarkable performance advantages in comparing with the baseline model and other advanced models, the average values of MAE reaching 1.679, revealing the effectiveness of the proposed method in enhancing the precision of short-term wind power prediction.

Short-term wind power prediction method based on CEEMDAN-GWO-Bi-LSTM

In order to improve the short-term prediction accuracy of wind power and provide the basis for power grid dispatching, a complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) -grey wolf optimization (GWO) -bidirectional long short-term memory network (Bi-LSTM) prediction model is proposed to predict the short-term output power of wind farms. Firstly, the original wind power data is preprocessed, and then the original wind power data is decomposed into components that are easy to extract features by using CEEMDAN. The Bi-LSTM prediction model is established for each component, and then the grey wolf optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the Bi-LSTM model. The optimized hyperparameters are brought into the Bi-LSTM model to output the prediction results of each component. Finally, the prediction results of each component are superimposed and reconstructed to obtain the final prediction results of wind power. The simulation analysis of the power data of a wind farm in Gansu Province shows that the CEEMDAN-GWO-Bi-LSTM model has better accuracy in short-term wind power prediction.

Interpretable Wind Power Short-Term Power Prediction Model Using Deep Graph Attention Network

High-precision spatial-temporal wind power prediction technology is of great significance for ensuring the safe and stable operation of power grids. The development of artificial intelligence technology provides a new scheme for modeling with strong spatial-temporal correlation. In addition, the existing prediction models are mostly ‘black box’ models, lacking interpretability, which may lead to a lack of trust in the model by power grid dispatchers. Therefore, improving the model to obtain interpretability has become an important challenge. In this paper, an interpretable short-term wind power prediction model based on ensemble deep graph neural network is designed. Firstly, the graph network model (GNN) with an attention mechanism is applied to the aggregate and the spatial-temporal features of wind power data are extracted, and the interpretable ability is obtained. Then, the long short-term memory (LSTM) method is used to process the extracted features and establish a wind power prediction model. Finally, the random sampling algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters to improve the learning rate and performance of the model. Through multiple comparative experiments and a case analysis, the results show that the proposed model has a higher prediction accuracy than other traditional models and obtains reasonable interpretability in time and space dimensions.