Short-term wind power output prediction using hybrid-enhanced seagull optimization algorithm and support vector machine: A high-precision method

Abstract

ABSTRACT Affected by the uncertainty of external environmental factors, wind power generation has significant characteristics of randomness and non-stationarity. Accurately predicting wind power is a necessary technical means to improve the efficiency of wind energy utilization and reduce wind abandonment. Integrating large-scale wind power into the grid has put higher requirements for wind power prediction accuracy. Hence, this study proposes a combined prediction model based on wavelet denoising (WD), hybrid enhanced seagull optimization algorithm (HESOA) and support vector machine (SVM) to predict short-term wind power. The WD technology obtains effective signals from original wind power data, providing a reasonable basis for prediction research. The HESOA is proposed by introducing the Tent mapping, individual self-learning factor and Gaussian population strategy into the original seagull optimization algorithm to optimize SVM’s prediction ability. The case study results reflect that the prediction method is feasible and universal in suppressing wind power generation volatility in spring and winter. The RMSE of short-term wind power prediction is controlled below 65 kW, and the value of R2 is above 98%. This study improves the accuracy of wind power prediction and helps to strengthen the renewable energy consumption level and reliability of wind power grid-connected generation systems.