Short-term Temperature Changes Research Articles

Hot under the collar: The association between daily temperature and temperature deviations with violent criminal behavior

Background: Criminal behavior is a significant public health threat, serving as both cause and consequence of violent actions. Violent assaults constitute over 1 million emergency room visits annually and represent the 8th leading cause of non-fatal injuries. However, the underlying environmental causes of violent behavior are still poorly understood. Our study investigates the role that daily temperature and temperature deviation plays on the risk of crime incidence. We further consider the ongoing debate as to whether temperature affects crime through a temperature-aggression relationship or by modifying routine activities.Methods: We used a hierarchical time series model to estimate the risk of criminal behavior associated with daily temperature and daily departure from normal temperatures in 436 U.S. counties. Departure from normal temperatures denote the deviation of daily temperature from the expected conditions. Daily crime incidence was acquired from the FBI’s National Incidence Based Reporting System and daily weather data from gridMET. We explored seasonality of crime risks and estimated linear and non-linear exposure-response relationships.Results: We found each 10°C increase in daily mean temperature increased the risk of violent crime by 11.92% (95% CI: 11.57, 12.27) and each 10°C increase in departure from normal temperatures increased violent crime risk by 10.37% (95% CI: 10.05, 10.69). The exposure response curve revealed increasing risk with absolute daily temperature until flattening off above 25°C. For departure from normal temperatures, we observed a strong linear relationship with crime, and significantly higher risk during fall and winter seasons. Similar overall effects, but with lower risk, were observed for non-violent property crime.Conclusions: Our results suggest that short-term changes in daily temperature may be associated with greater risk of criminal behavior. Based on the exposure-response curves and seasonal trends, our findings provide evidence of a routine activities pathway, rather than the temperature-aggression hypothesis.

The effect of temperature on Antarctic lichen cytochrome and alternative respiratory pathway rates

Respiration is a crucial process that provides all living organisms with energy and metabolites for growth and cellular maintenance. The processes that control respiration in lichens remain poorly understood. We investigated the effects of short-term temperature changes on the respiration rate, as well as the relative contributions of the cytochrome and alternative pathways of thalli from four green-algal lichen species collected from their natural habitats in Antarctica. Lichen respiration was sensitive to short-term temperature increases over a range of 5–35 °C. The total O2 uptake rate was increased by fourfold, and the mean respiratory coefficient (Q10) decreased from 2.5 to 1.3 as the temperature increased. An increase in temperature from 5 to 15 °C had a positive effect on cytochrome respiration coupled with energy production. Temperatures above 15 °C stimulated the activation of the alternative (energy-dissipating) respiratory pathway. Hyperthermia led to increased O2 consumption that was not associated with mitochondrial oxidases. The effects of increased temperature on the respiration rates were more pronounced in the bipolar lichens Umbilicaria decussata and Usnea sphacelata than in the Usnea aurantiaco-atra species with a narrower geographical distribution.

Age and mitochondrial DNA copy number influence the association between outdoor temperature and cognitive function: Insights from the VA Normative Aging Study.

Background:General cognitive function deteriorates with aging, a change that has been linked to outdoor temperature. Older individuals have reduced ability to adapt to changes in outdoor temperature than younger people. However, to what extent short-term changes in outdoor temperature interact with mitochondria to affect cognition in older people has not yet been determined.Methods:Our study included 591 participants of the Normative Aging Study who underwent multiple examinations between 2000 and 2013. Cognitive function was evaluated via the Mini-Mental State Examination. Outdoor temperature was estimated at residential addresses 1 day before the examination using on a validated spatiotemporal temperature model. Mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtDNAcn) was determined using buffy coat samples.Results:We found an interaction between temperature, age, mtDNAcn, and cognition. In individuals 84 years of age or older, cooler temperature was associated with low cognition (odds ratio = 1.2; 95% confidence interval = 1.05, 1.35 for a 1°C decrease in temperature; P = 0.007). We found higher odds ratio per 1°C decrease in temperature among individuals with lower mtDNAcn (β3 = 0.12; 95% confidence interval = 0.01, 0.22; Pinteraction = 0.02).Conclusions:Our findings, albeit potentially underpowered, suggest that older individuals may be more susceptible to the influence of short-term temperature exposure on cognition. Moreover, the level of mtDNAcn may also modify the association between temperature and cognitive function, indicating a possible role of these cellular elements in this relationship.

Measurement of optical reflection and temperature changes after blood occlusion using a wearable device

Early detection of compromised circulation is essential for postoperative monitoring of free flap. Hourly clinical check-ups such as inspection and palpation still result in a delay in detection. Conversely, optical reflection and temperature measurement are useful alternatives for detecting blood circulation. However, conventional methods that verify ischemia and congestion within a short period have not been reported. In this study, we measured short-term changes in optical reflection and temperature in a rat flap using a wearable flexible sensor probe previously developed in our laboratory. Five ischemia and five congestion groin flap models were measured using a sensor probe and reference devices. Curve fitting was performed on transition signals to evaluate changes in signals and their time constants. The optical reflection signal decreased after venous ligation and increased after arterial ligation. The parameters of the fitted curves indicate a significant difference between congestion and ischemia at p < 0.01 (probability value), which was detected within a few minutes after ligation. However, insufficient significance was observed in the temperature signal. Our method gives supporting information to verify ischemia and congestion, and has the potential to rapidly detect compromised circulation.

Electric Heating and the Effects of Temperature on Household Electricity Consumption in South Africa

How does temperature affect household energy demand in low-income countries? This paper uses 132,375,282 hourly electricity consumption observations from 5,975 households in South Africa to estimate the causal effects of short-term temperature changes on household electricity consumption. The estimates flexibly identify a constant log-linear temperature response—for every 1ଌ increase in temperature, electricity consumption decreases by 4.1% among temperatures below the heating threshold but increases by 8.1% among temperatures above the cooling threshold. This relationship is driven more strongly by seasonal than hourly temperature changes. Holding all else constant, a 3.25ଌ increase in temperatures would reduce electricity consumption by 1,093.4 kWh (6.2%) per year per household. Widespread use of electric heating due to limited residential gas heating infrastructure likely drives this. These results point to important regional heterogeneity in how temperature increases may affect household energy demand in the coming decades.

Small-scale water deficits after wildfires create long-lasting ecological impacts

Ecological droughts are deficits in soil–water availability that induce threshold-like ecosystem responses, such as causing altered or degraded plant-community conditions, which can be exceedingly difficult to reverse. However, ‘ecological drought’ can be difficult to define, let alone to quantify, especially at spatial and temporal scales relevant to land managers. This is despite a growing need to integrate drought-related factors into management decisions as climate changes result in precipitation instability in many semi-arid ecosystems. We asked whether success in restoration seedings of the foundational species big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) was related to estimated water deficit, using the SoilWat2 model and data from >600 plots located in previously burned areas in the western United States. Water deficit was characterized by: (1) the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), a coarse-scale drought index, and (2) the number of days with wet and warm conditions in the near-surface soil, where seeds and seedlings germinate and emerge (i.e. days with 0–5 cm deep soil water potential >−2.5 MPa and temperature above 0 °C). SPEI, a widely used drought index, was not predictive of whether sagebrush had reestablished. In contrast, wet-warm days elicited a critical drought threshold response, with successfully reestablished sites having experienced seven more wet-warm days than unsuccessful sites during the first March following summer wildfire and restoration. Thus, seemingly small-scale and short-term changes in water availability and temperature can contribute to major ecosystem shifts, as many of these sites remained shrubless two decades later. These findings help clarify the definition of ecological drought for a foundational species and its imperiled semi-arid ecosystem. Drought is well known to affect the occurrence of wildfires, but drought in the year(s) after fire can determine whether fire causes long-lasting, negative impacts on ecosystems.

Ultradian oscillations in brain temperature in sheep: implications for thermoregulatory control?

We compared body temperature patterns and selective brain cooling (SBC) in eight adult female sheep in an indoor (22-25°C) and outdoor (mean ~ 21°C) environment, by measuring brain, carotid arterial, and jugular venous blood temperatures at 5-min intervals using implanted data loggers. To investigate whether ultradian oscillations in brain temperature had thermoregulatory consequences for the sheep, we determined the cranial arterio-venous (AV) temperature difference as an indicator of respiratory evaporative heat loss (REHL). The 24-h pattern of SBC was similar in both environments, despite carotid blood temperature fluctuating 0.4°C more outdoors compared to indoors. The sheep employed SBC more often during the night than during the day, but SBC was abolished at intervals of 1-3h throughout the 24-h period. The suppression of SBC appeared to be associated with events that increased sympathetic nervous system activity, including shifts between stages of sleep. Short-term changes (over 5-min) in brain temperature were positively correlated with changes in the AV temperature difference 5min later, and negatively correlated with changes in carotid temperature 10min later. These data support the idea that increases in brain temperature modulate thermoregulation by increasing REHL, which leads to a decrease in carotid blood temperature. Ultradian oscillations in core temperature of sheep, therefore, appear to arise as a consequence of frequent brain temperature changes invoked by non-thermal inputs, in animals housed both in indoor and outdoor environments.

Seasonal and temperature effect on serum lithium concentrations

Lithium remains the gold standard treatment for bipolar disorder. However, it has a very narrow therapeutic index (0.6-0.8 mmol/L). It has been suggested that high environmental temperature can lead to dehydration, elevated plasma lithium concentration and then lithium toxicity. We aimed to investigate the effect of seasonal and short-term changes in temperature on serum lithium concentrations in Sydney, Australia. We retrospectively analysed data from all patients who had serum lithium concentrations taken from the Prince of Wales and Sutherland Hospitals between 2008 and 2018. Temperature data came from the Bureau of Meteorology. We examined correlations between lithium concentrations and the preceding 5 days maximum temperatures, month and season. We also performed a longitudinal analysis of the effect of temperature and seasons within selected patients who had repeated levels. A total of 11,912 serum lithium concentrations from 2493 patients were analysed. There was no significant association between higher lithium concentration and preceding higher temperatures (r = -0.008, p = 0.399). There was also no important seasonal or monthly variation, across all patients or in the smaller cohort with longitudinal data (n = 123, r = 0.008, 95% confidence interval: [-0.04, 0.06]). There were no clinically important differences in serum lithium concentration related to seasons, months or temperatures, which suggests that patients on lithium are able to adequately maintain hydration during hot weather in Sydney.

Short-term temperature change detections and frequency signals in single cultured cells using a microfabricated thermistor

Thermal detection is an effective means of investigating the thermodynamics, metabolic mechanisms, and functions of cells. Here, a sensing device for performing thermal measurements in single cultured cells is fabricated, and its characteristics are evaluated. Moreover, temperature detection in single cultured cells was demonstrated. The device is composed of vanadium dioxide (VO2) microthermistors on a suspended SiO2 membrane with a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) chamber. We demonstrated temperature sensing of single cultured cells on the sensor surface inside a PDMS chamber. The dimensions of the sensors were 50 × 50 μm2, almost similar to that of the cultured cells; a single cell was occasionally cultured on the sensor. To observe thermal change of these cells upon stimulation, COS7 cells were used. Their temperature gradually increased by 1 °C in the order of minutes. Furthermore, short-term periodic temperature variations (i.e. spikes) were observed in the non-stimulated cells, while there were no responses in the absence of cells on the sensors. The spikes of large signal amplitude observed at 37 °C confirmed the validity of the observed signals, as cells are active near 37 °C and activated cells emit signals with large amplitudes. The fabricated device can monitor short-term temperature changes in cells and is thus applicable to further investigations which seek to clarifying the thermodynamics, metabolic mechanisms, and functions of cells.

Acclimation alters glyphosate temperature-dependent toxicity: Implications for risk assessment under climate change

The evaluation of temperature-dependent chemical toxicity (TDCT) is imperative for future risk assessments of pesticides under global climate change scenarios. Few TDCT studies have so far considered the ability of organisms to acclimate to altered temperatures prior to pesticide exposure, although this may change their thermal tolerance range and hence their susceptibility to pesticide stress. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of temperature acclimation on the sensitivity of the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia silvestrii to Glyphosate. We used the shift in sensitivity of the organisms to Glyphosate when exposed to short term temperature changes as a proxy for the effect of the developmental acclimation on sensitivity. We observed that acclimation to higher temperatures reduces the sensitivity to Glyphosate when organisms are exposed to this pesticide in lower temperatures. Therefore, acclimation to high temperatures offers some protective effect against Glyphosate toxicity. We argue that pesticide risk assessments based on tests conducted at one standard temperature should be considered with care. Realistic risk assessments considering climate change scenarios should assess the mode of which organisms are exposed to temperature, therefore taking into consideration the potential effect of temperature acclimation on the sensitivity of a species to a toxicant.

Impact of the mitochondrial genome on the relationship between short-term changes outdoor temperature and cognitive function

TPS 664: Climate change: temperature effects 2, Exhibition Hall, Ground floor, August 27, 2019, 3:00 PM - 4:30 PM Background: Cognitive decline is a major challenge in aging populations. Older individuals show lower adaptation to changes in outdoor temperature than younger people. Therefore, it is plausible that short-term changes in outdoor temperature may affect cognition. Objectives: To determine whether cognitive function is associated to recent outdoor temperature among participants in the Normative Aging Study (NAS), a cohort of older males in Eastern New England. Because mitochondria are involved both in energy production and thermal regulation of the human body, we also evaluated whether the abundance of mitochondria (mtDNAcn) modified the association between temperature and cognitive function. Methods: The analysis included 591 participants in the Normative Aging Study, who underwent multiple visits between 2000 and 2013. Cognitive function was evaluated through the mini mental state-examination. We used apparent temperature one day before the visit, calculated from daily ambient temperature, dew point temperature, and relative humidity obtained from the National Weather Service Station at Boston Logan Airport. Mitochondrial DNA copy number was measured on buffy coat samples. Results: We found a significant interaction between temperature and age. Over 84 years of age the effect of decreasing temperature started to be associated with lower cognition (OR=1.1 95%CI 1.04-1.21 for a 1°C decrease in apparent temperature; p=0.002). Also, among individuals with lower mitochondrial DNA copy number we found a stronger association with low cognitive score (OR for the interaction=1.10 95%CI 1.03-1.17, p=0.006). Discussion: Our data show that older individuals were more susceptible to the influences on cognition of recent fluctuation in the low temperature range. Individuals with lower mtDNAcn —which may reflect lower mitochondrial mass—appeared to be less protected from the effects of low temperatures on cognition.

Acute air pollution exposure, temperature, and the risk of violent behavior in the United States

OPS 14: Temperature variation associated with suicide and violence, Room 412, Floor 4, August 26, 2019, 4:30 PM - 5:30 PM Background: Violence is a significant public health threat leading to social harm, injuries, and mortality. While violence research emphasizes social and individual behavior, associations with short-term environmental conditions are poorly understood. Emerging evidence suggests that acute air pollution and increased daily temperature may promote aggressive or impulsive reactions in people. Methods: We applied a two-stage hierarchical time series model to estimate the change in risk of violent and non-violent criminal behavior associated with short-term air pollution and daily temperature in U.S. counties (2000-2013). We used monitoring data from the Environmental Protection Agency for ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), daily temperature from the National Climatic Data Center, and daily crime counts from the Federal Bureau of Investigation. We evaluated differences in risk by community characteristics of poverty, urbanicity, race, and age and estimated a non-linear exposure-response relationship. Results: Our analysis over 300 counties in 34 states, representing 86.1 million people and 721,674 days. We found each 10µg/m3 change in daily PM2.5 and 10ppb change in ozone is associated with a 1.17% (95% CI: 0.90, 1.43) and a 0.59% (95% CI: 0.41, 0.78) relative risk increase (RRI) for violent crime. However, we observed no risk increase for non-violent property crime due to daily PM2.5 or ozone. Our results were robust across all community types, except rural regions. Exposure-response curves indicated increased violent crime risk at concentrations below regulatory standards. Violent crime and temperature showed a linear association with increasing temperature, but this trend flattened with non-violent crimes. Conclusions: Our results suggest that short-term changes in ambient air pollution and temperature may be associated with greater risk of violent behavior, regardless of community type.

Warm winters reduce landscape-scale variability in the duration of egg incubation for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) on the Copper River Delta, Alaska

We quantified the sum of daily mean temperature above 0 °C and modeled incubation duration using water temperature data collected at 12 coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) spawning sites during two incubation periods with cool, snow-dominant conditions and three incubation periods with anomalously warm, rain-transitional conditions, a proxy for a future climate scenario. Warmer water temperatures during warm–rain-transitional winters yielded a 58-day reduction in the median duration of egg incubation; however, the magnitude of change at individual sites varied widely and was controlled by water source. At groundwater-fed sites, temperature variations were strongly attenuated, leading to small interannual differences in incubation duration that were relatively insensitive to short-term changes in air temperature. In contrast, modeled incubation duration was shortened by up to 3 months during warm–rain-transitional winters at precipitation-fed sites. Remarkably, our modeling showed increased uniformity in incubation duration across the landscape during warm–rain-transitional winters. The potential loss of diversity in incubation duration during warmer winters, in isolation, may reduce portfolio effects in this region’s coho salmon population by promoting greater synchronization in the time of spawning.

Modelling the seasonal changes in the gas exchange response to CO2 in relation to short-term leaf temperature changes in Vitis vinifera cv. Shiraz grapevines grown in outdoor conditions

Effects of temperature on the photosynthetic response of Vitis vinifera cv. Shiraz leaves to CO2 were investigated across the growing season and modelling was used to determine relationships between photosynthesis and seasonal climate. Results indicated that photosynthetic rates declined from spring to summer, conforming to the deciduous habit of grapevines. Rates of ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate (RuBP) carboxylation and regeneration increased in a temperature dependent pattern throughout the season. However, the maximum rates decreased as the season progressed. There were also marked decreases in temperature sensitivity for each of these processes, consistent with the decreases occurring faster at high compared to low temperatures. There were no correlations between the seasonal climate and each of these photosynthetic processes but the effect of day was significant in all cases. CO2 saturated rates of photosynthesis (Amax) across the season were highly correlated with the maximum rates of RuBP carboxylation and regeneration. The transition temperature between RuBP regeneration and RuBP carboxylation-limited assimilation varied across the growing season, from 23 °C in spring, 35 °C in mid-summer and 30 °C at harvest and were highly correlated with mean day temperature. This suggested dynamic control of assimilation by carboxylation and regeneration processes occurred in these grapevines in tune with the seasonal climate.

Response of Corals Acropora pharaonis and Porites lutea to Changes in pH and Temperature in the Gulf

Coral reefs are harboring a large part of the marine biodiversity and are important ecosystems for the equilibrium of the oceans. As a consequence of anthropogenic CO2 emission, a drop in pH and an increase in seawater temperature is observed in the Gulf coastal waters that potentially threaten coral assemblages. An experimental study was conducted on two species of corals to assess the effect of ocean warming and ocean acidification on the net calcification rate. Two pH conditions 8.2 and 7.5 and three temperatures, 22.5, 27.5 and 32.5 °C, were considered. Net calcification rates were measured using 45Ca radiotracer. Both temperature and pH had a significant effect on net calcification rates following a similar pattern for both species. The highest calcification rate was observed at low temperature and high pH. Increased temperature and decreased pH led to a decrease in net calcification rates. An interactive effect was observed as the effect of pH decreased with increasing temperature. However, the two species of coral were able to calcify in all the tested combination of temperature and pH suggesting that they are adapted to short term changes in temperature and pH. Ability to calcify even at a high temperature of 32.5 °C that is identical to the summertime Gulf seawater temperature under both the ambient and low pH condition with no mortalities, raises a question: are these corals adapted to high seawater temperatures and low pH? More in-depth assessments will be required to confirm if this is an adaptation to higher temperatures in Persian Gulf corals.

Contrasting thermal acclimation of leaf dark respiration and photosynthesis of Antarctic vascular plant species exposed to nocturnal warming.

Leaf respiration and photosynthesis will respond differently to an increase in temperature during night, which can be more relevant in sensitive ecosystems such as Antarctica. We postulate that the plant species able to colonize the Antarctic Peninsula-Colobanthus quitensis (Kunth) Bartl. and Deschampsia antarctica Desv.-are able to acclimate their foliar respiration and to maintain photosynthesis under nocturnal warming to sustain a positive foliar carbon balance. We conducted a laboratory experiment to evaluate the effect of time of day (day and night) and nocturnal warming on dark respiration. Short (E0 and Q10 ) and long-term acclimation of respiration, leaf carbohydrates, photosynthesis (Asat ) and foliar carbon balance (R/A) were evaluated. The results suggest that the two species have differential thermal acclimation respiration, where D. antarctica showed more thermosensitivity to short-term changes in temperature than C. quitensis. Experimental nocturnal warming affected respiration at daytime differentially between the two species, with a significant increase of R10 and Asat in D. antarctica, while no changes on respiration were observed in C. quitensis. Long thermal treatments of the plants indicated that nocturnal but not diurnal respiration could acclimate in both species, and to a greater extent in C. quitensis. Non-structural carbohydrates were related with respiration in C. quitensis but not in D. antarctica, suggesting that respiration in the former species is likely controlled by total soluble sugars and starch during day and night, respectively. Finally, foliar carbon balance was differentially improved under warming conditions in Antarctic plants by different mechanisms, with C. quitensis deploying respiratory acclimation, while D. antarctica increased its Asat.

Effects of Short-term Temperature Change in the Innocuous Range on Histaminergic and Non-histaminergic Acute Itch

While temperatures in the noxious range are well-known to inhibit acute itch, the impact of temperature in the innocuous temperature range is less well understood. We investigated the effect of alternating short-term temperature changes in the innocuous range on histamine and cowhage-induced acute itch, taking into account individual differences in baseline skin temperature and sensory thresholds. Results indicate that cooling the skin to the cold threshold causes a temporary increase in the intensity of histamine-induced itch, in line with previous findings. Skin warming increased cowhage-induced itch intensity. Potential mecha-nisms of this interaction between thermosensation and pruritoception could involve cold-sensitive channels such as TRPM8, TREK-1 or TRPC5 in the case of histamine. The rapid modulation of cowhage induced itch - but not histamine-induced itch - by transient skin warming could be related to the lower temperature threshold of pruriceptive polymodal C-fibres (cowhage) as compared to the higher temperature threshold of the mechanoinsensitive C-fibres conveying histaminergic itch.

School sessions are correlated with seasonal outbreaks of medically attended respiratory infections: electronic health record time series analysis, Wisconsin 2004-2011.

Increased social contact within school settings is thought to be an important factor in seasonal outbreaks of acute respiratory infection (ARI). To better understand the degree of impact, we analysed electronic health records and compared risks of respiratory infections within communities while schools were in session and out-of-session. A time series analysis of weekly respiratory infection diagnoses from 28 family medicine clinics in Wisconsin showed that people under the age of 65 experienced an increased risk of ARI when schools were in session. For children aged 5-17 years, the risk ratio for the first week of a school session was 1.12 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93-1.34), the second week of a session was 1.39 (95% CI 1.15-1.68) and more than 2 weeks into a session was 1.43 (95% CI 1.20-1.71). Less significant increased risk ratios were also observed in young children (0-4 years) and adults (18-64 years). These results were obtained after modelling for baseline seasonal variations in disease prevalence and controlling for short-term changes in ambient temperature and relative humidity. Understanding the mechanisms of seasonality make it easier to predict outbreaks and launch timely public health interventions.

Short-term thermal responses after exposure to predator odor (TMT) in the house mouse

Exposure to predator cues is believed to induce fear-like responses in prey species and compounds found in the smells of predators, such as TMT (2,5-dihydro-2,4,5-trimethylthiazole) are frequently used to induce such responses. While behavioral changes of rodents after exposure to TMT have been well characterized, only few studies described the associated sympathetic responses. Here, we used non-invasive infrared thermography to assess short-term and fine-scale changes in peripheral body temperature of wild-origin house mice (Mus musculus domesticus) subjected to TMT. Peripheral temperature changes are associated with blood flow regulation occurring when mammals are subjected to emotion-eliciting situations. Our results revealed that confrontation to TMT induced clear peripheral thermal responses characterized by a significant increase in tail temperature and in the maximum peripheral body temperature. The increase in tail temperature is not the typical physiological stress response expected when mice are exposed to a fear-eliciting situation. In addition, mice did not express typical defensive behaviors such as freezing and avoidance. These results suggest that in our experimental conditions, TMT, as an indirect, chemical predator cue, induced arousal rather than fear. In conclusion, this study stresses the need for a deeper exploration of the behavioral and physiological response to predator odors to better understand the emotional responses they induce.

Periodicity Variation Analysis and Trend Prediction of Temperature in Yaoba Oasis

In order to study the periodicity variation and trend prediction of temperature in Yaoba Oasis, based on the temperature data from 1955 to 2012 of Barunbieli weather station, linear trend method, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the trend, mutation point and periodicity. The results showed that the temperature had a significantly warming trend nearly 60 years in Yaoba Oasis while there was one mutation point at 1986. The temperature had short periodicities of 4 and 9 years, so it would increase from 2016 to 2020 that it was closely related to the background of the global climate warming trend. This paper not only provided a scientific basis of the future short-term temperature change for Yaoba Oasis but also provided a theoretical reference for the local agricultural production.