Short-term Outlook Research Articles

Les biotechnologies, clés de l’innovation thérapeutique dans le domaine de la santé

The therapeutic innovation cannot be conceived today without biotechnology. Their insights on current development, the short-term outlook, and how to boost the sector health. Facilitate their development, it is also, during the last ten years, the work of Biopark Genopole and young biotechnology companies from the public and private researches.

Why Has Japan Been Hit So Hard by the Global Recession?

The Japanese economy has been hit hard by the slump in global demand for advanced manufacturing products such as cars, information technology, and machinery, which account for a larger share of production than in other G-7 economies. Most of the drop in Japan’s exports was caused by a sharp retrenchment in overseas demand for motor vehicles, information technology, and capital goods, as firms and consumers cut their investment and durable goods spending in response to the global credit crunch and extraordinary uncertainties about the outlook. Worsening domestic financial conditions deepened the current recession by reducing domestic demand, especially business investment. The short-term outlook is further clouded by the needed adjustment to inventories, which have accumulated well above normal levels in both Japan and its export markets. During the 2001 recession, industrial production started recovering about 5 months after the peak of the inventory cycle. By analogy, one could expect a bottom in industrial production around May 2009. However, since the global environment is expected to remain weak and the Japanese economy faces headwinds from tight domestic financial conditions, the production adjustment could take longer during this recession.

Downscaling 15-day Ensemble Weather Forecasts and Extension to Short-term Climate Outlooks

Downscaling 15-day Ensemble Weather Forecasts and Extension to Short-term Climate Outlooks

A New Policy for Britain's Cities: Choices, Challenges, Contradictions

The general perception of cities has been transformed over the last decade. The purpose of the article is to consider the idea and reality of urban revitalisation and to examine whether the government's emerging spatial policy will help to strengthen and sustain the revival. Evidence shows that there has been a significant improvement in urban economic conditions in recent years, but the short-term outlook is less favourable. While the government has taken some useful steps along the road to a more effective policy for cities, there is further to go. There are also important dilemmas to be addressed that go beyond a simple spatial fix.

Tunisia: 2008 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tunisia

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tunisia’s sound economic policies and pragmatic approach to structural reforms continue to bear fruit, as evidenced by strong growth and improved social indicators. Real GDP growth averaged 5 percent a year while the macroeconomic and financial position strengthened substantially during the past decade. The short-term outlook is encouraging despite the challenging international environment. The fiscal deficit is projected to remain at 3 percent of GDP. The medium-term outlook remains favorable with growth projected at above 6 percent sustained by strong foreign direct investment.

How did the Invisible Hand Handle Industrial Waste? By-product Development before the Modern Environmental Era

A growing number of historians have turned their attention to the past behavior of industrialists toward their waste. Many have argued that the price system and competition typically fostered a short-term outlook that rewarded pollution rather than encouraging “loop-closing,” a modern term that refers to the linkages between different industries in which the residual of one becomes the input of another. Others have identified precedents in this respect that are credited to Progressive Era reformers. Building on evidence that has, by and large, escaped the attention of the present generation of historical writers, this essay challenges both views by arguing that market institutions, which included both profit motive and property rights, actually resulted in the usage of industrial by-products. Although past industrial activities did create significant pollution problems, perhaps our ancestors should be given more credit than they generally are for the creativity and resourcefulness they displayed in profitably solving numerous environmental problems.

How did the Invisible Hand Handle Industrial Waste? By-product Development before the Modern Environmental Era

A growing number of historians have turned their attention to the past behavior of industrialists toward their waste. Many have argued that the price system and competition typically fostered a short-term outlook that rewarded pollution rather than encouraging “loop-closing,” a modern term that refers to the linkages between different industries in which the residual of one becomes the input of another. Others have identified precedents in this respect that are credited to Progressive Era reformers. Building on evidence that has, by and large, escaped the attention of the present generation of historical writers, this essay challenges both views by arguing that market institutions, which included both profit motive and property rights, actually resulted in the usage of industrial by-products. Although past industrial activities did create significant pollution problems, perhaps our ancestors should be given more credit than they generally are for the creativity and resourcefulness they displayed in profitably solving numerous environmental problems.

Some Issues of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Russia in 2000-2006 and in the Short-term Outlook

The paper analyzes the problems of macroeconomic policy in Russia in 2000-2006. The authors estimate the trends of realization of monetary, credit, currency and budgetary policy under favorable and unfavorable external economic conditions. Different variants of government and central bank reaction to the oil prices conservation or decline are considered. Different scenarios of macroeconomic policy realization in 2007-2011 are modeled. The results of the computation are presented.

France: 2006 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report, Staff Supplement; and Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion

France’s economic short-term outlook is positive, and long-term prospects have improved. Fiscal adjustment remains high on the government’s agenda. Tax reforms have improved the economy’s growth potential. Reforms in financial, labor, and product markets are necessary to boost job creation, prepare the economy for aging, and allow it to benefit from global activity. The financial sector’s profitability and capitalization put it in a good position to manage increasing risks. Structural reforms in labor and product markets remain essential to boost long-term growth and secure fiscal sustainability.

Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part II. Participatory local scenario development

This paper builds on Part I, where three European and Mediterranean scenarios were introduced. Theses scenarios can be typified as qualitative, integrated narrative storylines that describe three possible directions of future change until 2030. The main purpose of the paper is to summarise the methods and results of a series of stakeholder workshops held in the Guadalentín (Spain) and the Val d'Agri (Italy) to develop local scenarios, using the Mediterranean scenarios as boundary conditions. Two workshops were organised in both watersheds, employing different methods to develop short-term and long-term future outlooks. During the first workshop an exploratory forecasting methodology was employed. By means of a collage of images, stakeholders constructed three future images linked to three Mediterranean scenarios. In the second workshop, a discussion on the short-term outlook based on current trends was followed by a backcasting exercise. The various methods yielded highly complementary results, with detailed short-term developments, rather general yet highly creative visions of the long-term future, and a set of desirable futures. It is argued that such a mix of methods has increased the quality and comprehensiveness of the results. In any case, these efforts should be but the onset of long-term stakeholder participation.

Importance of aggressive treatment in juvenile dermatomyositis

Juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM) is the most common idiopathic inflammatory myopathy in children. Its outcome depends on the precocity of the diagnosis and of the treatment, but predictive parameters for guiding the correct therapeutic and prognostic approaches to JDM are still lacking. We analysed the one-year-old outcomes of 20 JDM patients treated with methylprednisolone boluses, methotrexate, and cyclophosphamide, through a longitudinal retrospective study. The outcome variables included: the Childhood Myositis Assessment Score (CMAS); Manual Muscle Testing (MMT); the Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ); the Child Health Questionnaire (CHQ: physical score CHQ PhS and psycho-social score CHQ PsS), patient and parent Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), as well as laboratory data: ESR, LDH, CK, and ALT. Within all JDM patient groups, we discovered significant improvement in all disease activity parameters CMAS (p<0.001) and MMT (p<0.001), followed by a significant decrease in CHAQ (p<0.001), as well as parent VAS (p<0.001) and physician VAS (p<0.001). With regard to laboratory parameters, only CK (p=0.001) and LDH (p=0.013) levels were found to be significantly decreased, while there were no significant changes in ESR and ALT. The results of our study support the findings that the aggressive treatment of JDM patients improves their short-term outlook.

Parity violation with electrons and hadrons

A key question in understanding the structure of nucleons involves the roles of sea quarks in their ground state electromagnetic properties such as charge and magnetism. Parity-violating electron scattering, when combined with determination of nucleon electromagnetic form factors from parity-conserving e-N scattering, provides another degree of freedom to separately determine the up, down and strange quark contributions to nucleon electromagnetic structure. Strange quarks are unique in that they are exclusively in the nucleon's sea. A program of experiments using parity violating electron scattering has been underway for approximately a decade, and results are beginning to emerge. This paper is a brief overview of the various experiments and their results to date along with a short-term outlook of what can be anticipated from experiments in the next few years.

Tunisia: 2004 Article IV Consultation--Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tunisia

This 2004 Article IV Consultation states that the strength of the Tunisian economy continued in 2003, and the short-term outlook is favorable. Favorable agricultural production and robust nonenergy exports contributed to high growth and a narrowing of the external current account deficit in 2003. Monetary policy remains prudent and inflation under control. Greater exchange rate flexibility and the appreciation of the euro vis-à-vis the United State dollar have led to a depreciation of the dinar in real effective terms.

How Long Can the U.S. Consumers Carry the Economy on Their Shoulders?

The consumer has been on a tightrope since the bursting of the new bubble, as losses in equity markets have been partly offset by gains in real estate and fiscal support and mortgage refinancing have partly offset increased consumer cautiousness. The consumer will remain on a tightrope in the near future, but if the economy were to stumble, the fragile consumer might contribute to turning the downturn into a deep and protracted recession. There are two risks to the continuation of consumer resilience. The first arises from the fact that this has been a jobless recovery. The second arises from a growing personal sector imbalance that is fueled by the growing property bubble. Hence, the short-term outlook remains uncertain, but the long-term one is bleak.

MEETING THE MAASTRICHT TARGETS

ABSTRACTThis article documents the role of debt management and budgetary targets as emerging factors in economic integration. The author examines the negotiations behind the Maastrict Treaty with a particular focus on Germany and France. This study also examines the long and short‐term outlook for economic success by analyzing the domestic and international economic and political forces at work in the process of economic integration. Such an understanding is critical as regional trading blocs spread and resistance to these trends becomes organized.

TRENDS AND OUTLOOK FOR EXPLORATION IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Petroleum exploration activity in Western Australia over the past decade has been on the increase, boosted by the positive results of many new discoveries, mainly on the North West Shelf but also in frontier areas. Significant discoveries in 1999–2000 resulted from new exploration concepts including deep plays in the Barrow/Dampier Sub-basins, heavy oil plays in the Carnarvon Basin, a deep-water gas play west of Gorgon, large gas/condensate plays in the Browse Basin, and a new gas play in the southern Bonaparte Basin. Discovery itself is a great incentive to the industry to further exploration; however, concerns over oil price, the Australian dollar, markets, policies and perceived prospectivity impact on exploration spending. The short-term outlook for WA is good as a result of existing work commitments including an average of 50 exploration wells to be drilled each year for the next three years. Onshore, where exploration has been subdued, there are signs of increased activity. The Western Australian government is playing a key role in promoting the State through gazettals, promotional activities— conferences and publications, acquiring precompetitive data and making petroleum data more accessible. The government funded Petroleum Exploration Initiatives program is continuing and efforts are being made to facilitate exploration. Sustained high oil prices, improvements in technology and efforts to expedite access to land are just some of the factors which will assist companies in their endeavours. In the longer term, continued growth in Western Australia’s petroleum industry is projected.

Japan's Short-term energy outlook — FY1998 records and short-term forecast up to FY2000

Analyse de la consommation energetique japonaise, pour les annees fiscales 1997 et 1998. Prevision macro-economique de l'evolution de la consommation, pour les annees fiscales 1999 et 2000.

The World Economy

The short-term economic outlook has improved significantly in nearly all parts of the world economy over the past year. Growth has continued at a rapid pace in the North American economies, helped by the renewed vigour in equity prices in recent months and further strong growth in labour productivity. GDP in the United States is estimated to have risen by over 4 per cent in 1999, for the third year in succession. We expect to see further growth of 3¾ per cent this year. The European Union economies have embarked on a cyclical upturn, helped by accommodative monetary policies and the impact of improved external demand.

Czech economy on a way back to growth

The paper contains an analysis of the current trends in the Czech economy, and a short-term outlook for 2000. The authors claim that the economy is going through a gradual turn from recession to stagnation and to a slight recovery. The main factors of the turn toward revival are exports, followed by private household consumption, while government consumption contributed only slightly to the increase of domestic demand. The authors see the main potential risk for the year 2000 in the need to stabilise economic growth and achieve its further acceleration. The success will mainly depend on a fast removal of financial barriers which the majority of Czech firms is now facing. Further inflow of foreign capital, growing competition pressures in the financial sector, the growth of exports, and a gradual increase of domestic demand are likely to help to overcome these barriers.

Slow Change of Information System Development Practice

Recent advances in information system (IS) development such as object oriented technology, CASE tools, and increasing emphasis on software quality should bring better products and faster delivery to the customer. Yet, despite the high expectation of these new technologies, it is not clear whether there is any real change at the working level. This paper presents a multi-year study on the change of development practice, quality practice, and project performance of the software industry. Data on various dimensions of IS development was collected in three consecutive years. The results indicated that the changes were slow over the period. In many areas, no significant change was detected, except there was a slightly increasing use of CASE tools. It seems that the lack of resources, short term outlook, and unknown value of process improvement may be the contributing factors to the slow change.