Movements In Short-term Interest Rates Research Articles

The impact of macroeconomic news sentiment on interest rates

We provide evidence that sentiment extracted from articles related to interest rates, inflation, and the labor market has the ability to explain short-term interest rate movements that cannot be accounted for by professionals’ and consumers’ expectations. Additionally, sentiment can pin down two short rate regimes that are correlated with the business cycle. By combining these results with a yield curve model, we find that market sentiment has a statistically significant negative effect on the short end of the yield curve and a positive effect on the slope. We also show that sentiment improves the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of short-term yields.

A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates

AbstractWe develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the supply of long-term bonds in one currency influences the foreign exchange rate between the two currencies, as well as bond term premia in both currencies. Our model matches several important empirical patterns, including the comovement between exchange rates and term premia, and the finding that central banks’ quantitative easing policies affect exchange rates. An extension of our model links spot exchange rates to the persistent deviations from covered interest rate parity that have emerged since 2008.

A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates

We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the supply of long-term bonds in one currency influences the foreign exchange rate between the two currencies, as well as bond term premia in both currencies. Our model matches several important empirical patterns, including the co-movement between exchange rates and term premia, as well as the finding that central banks' quantitative easing policies impact exchange rates. An extension of our model sheds light on the persistent deviations from covered interest rate parity that have emerged since 2008. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Inferring the Shadow Rate from Real Activity

We estimate a shadow rate consistent with the paths of time series capturing real activity. This allows us to quantify the real effects of unconventional monetary policy in terms of equivalent short-term interest rate movements. We find that large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance had significant real effects equivalent of up to a four percent reduction in the federal funds rate.

Interest rate movements and US consumers’ inflation forecast errors: is there a link?

The Fisher effect maintains that movements in short-term interest rates largely reflect changes in expected inflation. Since expected inflation is subject to error, we ask whether interest rates move in response to over- and under-predictions of inflation. In answering, we measure expected inflation by the consumers’ forecast of inflation derived from the Michigan Surveys of Consumers (MSC). Our findings for 1978–2013 indicate that the MSC inflation forecasts were unbiased, efficient, and directionally accurate. For 1978–2007, (i) interest rates moved downward (upward) in response to MSC over-predictions (under-predictions) of inflation, and (ii) MSC inflation forecast errors had directional predictability for interest rates. However, no link between interest rate movements and MSC inflation forecast errors is detected for 2008–2013 when monetary policy kept short-term interest rates unusually low.

Testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rate: the case of Ghana

This study examines the expectations hypothesis (EH) using data from Ghana. It tests the EH by using the long-short rate spread to predict future movements in short-term interest rates and the forward-spot spread to predict changes in the spot rate. It finds that the Ghanaian term structure partly contains information for future changes in the short-term interest rates though the relation is not one-to-one. It suggests that market participants and policymakers may have to be cautious in relying on the Ghanaian term structure for their various purposes such as the conduct of monetary policy and investment decisions.

Long-Run UIP Holds Even in the Short Run

The failure of uncovered interest rate parity to explain short-term interest rate movements is well documented. We show that short-term changes in long-term interest rates do help to explain short-term exchange rate movements. The relationship gets stronger over our sample period, as the liquidity of the exchange rate market increases. We also show that controlling for time-varying exchange rate risk also helps to improve the fit of the relationship.

Nonparametric conditional density estimation of short-term interest rate movements: procedures, results and risk management implications

This article shows how to estimate the conditional density of daily changes in the 3-month T-bill rate, using an extension of the kernel-based estimator proposed by Rosenblatt (1969 Rosenblatt, M. 1969. “Conditional probability density and regression estimators”. In Multivariate Analysis II, Edited by: Krishnaiah, PR. 25–31. New York: Academic Press. [Google Scholar]). The shape of the estimated density is allowed to vary with both the level and the lagged change in rates. Due to the nonparametric character of the estimation procedure, the model produces conditional quantile estimates that are based only on the data and are independent of the modellers’ assumptions. The obtained results do not support the assumption of systematically mean-reverting behaviour underlying some theoretical models of short-term interest rate dynamics. However, they clearly indicate the presence of nonlinear first-order autocorrelation and volatility clustering effects, as well as a positive relationship between yield volatility and level.

The Behavior of Short-Term Interest Rates: International Evidence of Non-Linear Adjustment

This study tests whether changes in the short-term interest rate can best be modelled in a non-linear fashion. We argue that there are good theoretical and empirical reasons for adopting this strategy. Using monthly data from several industrialized countries, namely Canada, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, and US, we show that the short-term interest rate movements are better explained, usually via the exponential smooth transition autoregression (ESTR). Unlike the existing literature on non-linear estimation, we consider a number of candidates for the transition variable. These include: an error correction term, estimated from an underlying cointegrating relationship predicted by the expectations hypothesis, the US term spread, the domestic spread, inflation and output growth forecasts, and deviations from an inflation target in the case of Canada, the UK and Sweden.The sample spans the period from 1960-1998. We reject linearity in the behavior of short-term interest rate changes and instead find support for a non-linear model with the (lagged) domestic spread as the transition variable. However, other more economically meaningful alternatives perform just as well. For example, in the case of the inflation targeting countries in our sample, the most appropriate transition variable can be the deviation from the publicly announced inflation target. We supplement estimates with extensive diagnostic testing of the non-linear model to ensure that we can reject the linear alternative with reasonable confidence. We believe that changes in central bank policies, and in the reaction of market participants over time to such changes, argue in favor of the non-linear estimation approach. We also argue that any model of the term structure estimated over a fairly long span of time necessitates resort to non-linear estimation methods.

Short-term eurocurrency rate behavior and specifications of cointegrating processes

This article presents empirical evidence on short-term behavior based on seven Eurocurrency market rates. Empirical analysis suggests that there is two-dimensional cointegration. First, the domestic short-term interest rate is cointegrated with longer-term interest rates within a particular country. Second, the domestic short-term interest rate is cointegrated with the comparable foreign short-term interest rate adjusted for the foreign exchange forward premium (discount). The empirical evidence confirms that an error-correction model combining both dimensional market-correcting processes better explains short-term interest rate movements.

Redemption Costs and Interest Rates under the U.S. National Banking System

Interest rates under the U.S . National Banking System ( 1863 -1914) appear to imply that banks failed to exploit an arbitrage opportunity for two reasons: Yields on government bonds exceeded the tax rate on note issue by approximately 150 basis points, and short-term interest rates varied seasonally. This paper examines whether note redemption costs can explain observed interest rates. We present a model in which redemption costs create a spread between the tax rate on note issue and bond yields and in which temporary seasonal fluctuations in currency demand generate seasonal movements in short-term interest rates. Calibration of the model to actual data lends support to the model's implications. Further, interest rates are shown not to vary seasonally when banks do not incur the costs of note redemption. THE BANKING SYSTEM that existed in the United States between 1863 and 1914 the so-called National Banking System is unique in U.S. history. Under this system, private commercial banks (national banks) were permitted to issue payable-on-demand liabilities (banknotes) that were required to be fully collateralized by government bonds and that carried an explicit government guarantee against noteholder loss should the issuing bank fail. Banks were taxed based on the quantity of their notes in circulation, and each bani had to redeem its own notes at par in (specie or greenbacks). The National Banking System gave rise to a national currency because each bank was required to accept the notes of other national banks at par. A bank holding notes issued by another bank could redeem those notes at par in lawful money through redemption centers established by the U.S. Treasury, with the costs of redemption borne by the issuing bank. During the period of the National Banking System observed interest rates were characterized by two features. First, yields on intermediated government bonds ex

Simple Rules for Monetary Policy

How effective are monetary policy rules at stabilizing the economy? This paper explores the characteristics and performance of monetary policy rules designed to minimize fluctuations in inflation, output, and interest rates using the Federal Reserve Board's large-scale FRB/US macroeconometric model. I find that a smoothed measure of inflation, the output gap, and the lagged funds rate are sufficient statistics for the setting of monetary policy. Efficient simple rules that respond to these three variables perform nearly as well as fully optimal policies that respond to the hundreds of variables in the model, and the simple rules are more robust to model misspecification. Efficient policies smooth the interest rate response to shocks and use the feedback from anticipated policy actions to stabilize inflation and output and to moderate movements in short-term interest rates. These results hold in a wide range of macro models but are sensitive to the assumption of rational expectations.

“Overreaction” of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium

We attempt to explain the overreaction of asset prices to movements in short-term interest rates, dividends, and asset supplies. The key element of our explanation is a margin constraint that traders face which limits their leverage to a fraction of the value of their assets. Traders may lever themselves, furthermore, either directly by borrowing short term or indirectly by engaging in futures and options trading, so that the scenario is relevant to contemporary financial markets. When some shock pushes asset prices to a low enough level at which the margin constraint binds, traders are forced to liquidate assets. This drives asset prices below what they would be with frictionless markets. Also, a shock which simply increases the likelihood that the margin constraint will bind can have a very similar effect on asset prices. We construct a general equilibrium model with margin constrained traders and derive some qualitative properties of asset prices. We present an analytical solution for a deterministic version of the model and a simple numerical computation of the stochastic version.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: G1, E0.

Simple Rules for Monetary Policy

What is a good monetary policy rule for stabilizing the economy? In this paper, efficient policy rules are computed using the FRB/US large-scale open-economy macroeconometric model. Simple three-parameter policy rules are found to be very effective at minimizing fluctuations in inflation, output, and interest rates: Increases in rule complexity yield only trivial reductions in aggregate variability. Under rational expectations, efficient policies smooth the interest rate response to shocks and use the feedback from anticipated policy actions to stabilize inflation and output and to moderate movements in short-term interest rates. Policy should react to a multi-period inflation rate rather than the current quarter inflation rate; in fact, targeting the price level, as opposed to the inflation rate, involves only small additional stabilization costs. These results are robust to parameter and model uncertainty and the imposition of the non-negativity constraint on nominal interest rates. However, if expectations formation is invariant to policy, as in backward-looking models, the expectations channel is shut off and the performance of policies that are efficient under rational expectations may, as a result, deteriorate markedly; efficient policies, in contrast, exploit systematic expectational errors.

A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk

This paper nonparametrically estimates a continuous-time Markov model of term structure dynamics. Due to the aliasing problem, which tells us that the drift and diffusion of the short rate process are not identifiable given only discretely sampled data, previous authors have parameterized at least one of the drift and diffusion functions, leaving open the possibility of misspecification. This paper imposes no parametric restrictions on either the drift or the diffusion, instead deriving and estimating a family of approximations to the true drift and diffusion functions. These approximations are identifiable using only discretely observed data, and for some common parametric models, we find that the approximations are almost indistinguishable from the true drift and diffusion when the sampling frequency is monthly or greater. Estimating the model using daily data on the 3 month Treasury Bill rate over the period January 1965 - July 1995, we find that, while the estimated diffusion is similar to the (parametric) function estimated by Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff and Sanders (1992), there is evidence of substantial nonlinearity in the drift, showing sharply increasing mean reversion as the short rate moves further from its long run mean. Knowing the process governing short term interest rate movements is not enough by itself to price interest rate derivative securities. We also need to know the market price of interest rate risk, the excess return required for an investor to bear a unit amount of additional risk. Previous research has typically assumed this to be identically zero. We explicitly estimate the functional relationship between the market price of interest rate risk and the level of interest rates, using daily excess returns on 6 month vs. 3 month Treasury Bills over the period January 1965 - July 1995, and combine this with the estimated short rate model to price interest rate dependent securities. Incorporating our estimates for the market price of interest rate risk changes the pricing results substantially.

A Daily View of Yield Spreads and Short-Term Interest Rate Movements

Daily data on short-term interest rates are used to show how changes in Federal Reserve operating procedures have affected the term structure. Yield spreads were helpful in predicting short-term interest-rate movements during the nonborrowed reserves targeting period (1979-82) but not during the earlier Federal-funds targeting period. Since the adoption of contemporaneous-reserves accounting in 1984, yield spreads have been informative about short-term interest rate movements, principally because of the interplay between the market determination of the overnight funds rate on reserve settlement Wednesdays and the Fed's apparent commitment to stabilizing the funds rate on other days. Copyright 1996 by Ohio State University Press.

Interest rate policy of the deutsche bundesbank: An econometric analysis for 1975 to 1992

Internal and external economic targets which a monetary authority tries to achieve make its interest rate policy partly endogenous. This article analyses the Bundesbank's interest rate policy since 1975, the year the Bundesbank published its first intermediate money growth target based on estimates of an ‘inevitable’ inflation rate and expectations about economic development. Estimation of a discount rate reaction function suggests that German monetary policy responds primarily to the final objective of price level stability and to a smaller extent, to the intermediate money supply target. Moreover, cyclical movements and balance-of payments equilibria are found to significantly influence the Bundesbank's discount rate policy. Both the inflation rate and the current account enter the reaction function in a non-linear way. When inflation is above the targeted rate or when there is a current account deficit, discount rate responses are much stronger than in the case of ‘below target’ inflation or a current account surplus. Internationally, the Bundesbank discount rate policy is limited by US short-term interest rate movements.

Interpreting the Movements in Short-Term Interest Rates

This article uses modern asset pricing theory to examine the behavior of short-term nominal interest rates over the past twenty-five years. The analysis investigates whether variation in the stochastic behavior of consumption growth and inflation can explain movements in the rate of interest. The model estimated allows for taste shocks to utility. The authors' results reveal that much of the month-to-month movement in nominal interest rates reflects changes in the real rate and the risk premia in addition to inflationary expectations. Copyright 1992 by University of Chicago Press.

Money Supply Announcements and Market Reactions in an Open Economy

An open economy model of the money supply announcement-financial market reaction phenomenon under policy anticipations is formulated, whose major divergence from earlier models is the prediction that short-term interest rate movements need not be positively correlated with unexpectedly high monetary growth. While at variance with the most consistent empirical regularity in the United States, this prediction in fact accords with previous empirical findings for both the United Kingdom and Canada. Copyright 1990 by Ohio State University Press.

The Credibility of The Wall Street Journal in Reporting the Timing and Details of Monetary Policy Events

This paper answers questions raised about our use of the Wall Street Journal in an earlier paper in which we estimated the effect of changes in the federal funds rate target -- the Federal Reserve's policy instrument -- on market interest rates in the 1970s. In that paper we found that changes in the funds rate target caused large movements in short-term interest rates and smaller but significant movements in longer-term rates.