Short-term Death Research Articles

Influence of portal vein thrombosis on the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis based on propensity score matching

Objective To investigate the influence of portal vein thrombosis (PVT) on the short-term prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis and the risk factors for the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of the patients with liver cirrhosis who were hospitalized in our hospital from September 2018 to March 2020, among whom 58 patients with PVT were enrolled as PVT group and 116 patients without PVT were enrolled as non-PVT group, and 44 patients were selected from each group based on propensity score matching (PSM) at a ratio of 1∶ 1 to balance the covariates between groups. The t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test or the Fisher's exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. The Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank method were used to analyze survival status and bleeding before and after PSM, and the Cox risk model was used to analyze the risk factors for the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis. Results Before PSM, the non-PVT group had a significantly higher overall survival rate than the PVT group (P=0.008), while after PSM, there was no significant difference in overall survival rate between the two groups (P=0.076). Before PSM, the non-PVT group had significantly lower incidence rates of upper gastrointestinal bleeding or rebleeding than the PVT group before and after PSM (P Conclusion Liver cirrhosis with PVT increases the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding or rebleeding, but it is not an independent risk factor for short-term death in patients with liver cirrhosis. MELD score ≥15 is an independent risk factor for short-term death in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Cardiac adipose tissue volume and IL-6 level at admission are complementary predictors of severity and short-term mortality in COVID-19 diabetic patients

BackgroundCOVID-19 diabetic adults are at increased risk of severe forms irrespective of obesity. In patients with type-II diabetes, fat distribution is characterized by visceral and ectopic adipose tissues expansion, resulting in systemic inflammation, which may play a role in driving the COVID-19 cytokine storm. Our aim was to determine if cardiac adipose tissue, combined to interleukin-6 levels, could predict adverse short-term outcomes, death and ICU requirement, in COVID-19 diabetic patients during the 21 days after admission.MethodsEighty one consecutive patients with type-II diabetes admitted for COVID-19 were included. Interleukin-6 measurement and chest computed tomography with total cardiac adipose tissue index (CATi) measurement were performed at admission. The primary outcome was death during the 21 days following admission while intensive care requirement with or without early death (ICU-R) defined the secondary endpoint. Associations of CATi and IL-6 and threshold values to predict the primary and secondary endpoints were determined.ResultsOf the enrolled patients (median age 66 years [IQR: 59–74]), 73% male, median body mass index (BMI) 27 kg/m2 [IQR: 24–31]) 20 patients had died from COVID-19, 20 required intensive care and 41 were in conventional care at day 21 after admission. Increased CATi and IL-6 levels were both significantly related to increased early mortality (respectively OR = 6.15, p = 0.002; OR = 18.2, p < 0.0001) and ICU-R (respectively OR = 3.27, p = 0.01; OR = 4.86, p = 0.002). These associations remained significant independently of age, sex, BMI as well as troponin-T level and pulmonary lesion extension in CT. We combined CATi and IL-6 levels as a multiplicative interaction score (CATi*IL-6). The cut-point for this score was ≥ 6386 with a sensitivity of 0.90 and a specificity of 0.87 (AUC = 0.88) and an OR of 59.6 for early mortality (p < 0.0001).ConclusionsCardiac adipose tissue index and IL-6 determination at admission could help physicians to better identify diabetic patients with a potentially severe and lethal short term course irrespective of obesity. Diabetic patients with high CATi at admission, a fortiori associated with high IL-6 levels could be a relevant target population to promptly initiate anti-inflammatory therapies.

Analysis of clinical characteristics and prognostic risk factors in patients with Stanford type B aortic dissection complicated with hypertension

To investigate the clinical characteristics as well as short-term and long-term prognostic factors of patients with Stanford type B aortic dissection (TBAD) with hypertension. Patients with TBAD who received thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) admitted to Xiangyang Central Hospital from January 2014 to December 2018 were enrolled. The baseline data of patients admitted to the hospital were collected through the case management system, including gender, age, underlying diseases (hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease), smoking history, drinking history, duration of pain, vital signs at admission [heart rate (HR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP)], laboratory results [white blood cell count (WBC), platelet count (PLT), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), serum creatinine (SCr), C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, ascending aorta diameter], etc. The clinical characteristics of TBAD patients with hypertension were analyzed. Logistic regression model and Cox proportional risk model were used to analyze the impact of hypertension on the short-term and long-term all-cause deaths after TEVAR in TBAD patients. Among 227 TBAD patients, 160 cases (70.5%) were complicated with hypertension, while 67 cases (29.5%) were not. The average age, the proportion of diabetes and coronary heart disease, and the level of SBP, DBP and SCr at admission of TBAD patients with hypertension were higher than those of TBAD without hypertension [age (years old): 53.1±11.9 vs. 42.8±14.1, combined with diabetes: 8.8% vs. 1.5%, combined with coronary heart disease: 6.3% vs. 0%, SBP (mmHg, 1 mmHg = 0.133 kPa): 147.9±18.1 vs. 136.9±15.2, DBP (mmHg): 93.9±11.9 vs. 89.1±13.8, SCr (μmol/L): 97.8±25.4 vs. 89.8±23.6, all P < 0.05]. The short-term mortality of TBAD with hypertension group was significantly higher than that of TBAD without hypertension group [6.3% (10/160) vs. 0% (0/67), χ2 = 4.386, P = 0.036]. 227 patients with TBAD were followed up for 3-66 months, with a median follow-up time of 25 months. There was no significant difference in long-term mortality between TBAD patients with and without hypertensive during discharge follow-up [13.1% (21/160) vs. 9.0% (6/67), χ2 = 0.784, P = 0.376]. Further multivariate Logistic regression analysis and Cox regression analysis did not indicate that hypertension was an independent risk factor for short-term and long-term death in TBAD patients [odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were 13.477 (0.541-330.215), 1.012 (0.990-1.035), both P > 0.05]. Age and HR were independent risk factors for the short-term mortality of TBAD patients [OR and 95%CI were 15.287 (1.051-226.415), 0.026 (0.002-0.840), both P < 0.05]. Age, PLT and D-dimer were independent risk factors for the long-term mortality of TBAD patients [OR and 95%CI were 1.808 (1.205-2.711), 0.555 (0.333-0.924), 1.482 (1.035-2.122), respectively, all P < 0.05]. The TBAD patients with hypertension have older age, high rates of diabetes or coronary heart disease. However, hypertension is not an independent risk factor for short-term and long-term mortality in TBAD patients.

The safety of morphine in patients with acute heart failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

While morphine has long been widely used in treating acute heart failure (AHF) due to its vasodilatory properties and anticipated anxiolysis, it remains unclear whether the application of morphine to those patients is reasonable. We aim to conduct a systematic review and meta‐analysis to assess the safety of morphine in patients with AHF. We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase electronic databases from inception through March 2020. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to estimate the outcomes. Seven studies with 172, 226 patients were included. The results showed that morphine usage was not associated with increased in‐hospital mortality (OR: 1.94; 95% CI 0.93 to 4.03; p = 0.08). However, the use of morphine significantly increased the risk of invasive ventilation (OR: 2.72; 95% CI 1.09 to 6.80; p = 0.03). Furthermore, the subgroup analysis indicated that the application of morphine was not associated with increased 7‐day all‐cause mortality in patients with AHF (OR: 1.69; 95% CI 0.80 to 3.22; p = 0.11) but significantly increased the risk of 30‐day all‐cause mortality (OR: 1.59; 95% CI 1.16 to 2.17; p = 0.004). Based on current evidence, our results suggested that although morphine therapy did not significantly increase the risk of short‐term death (in the hospital or within 7 days) in patients with AHF, the risk of long‐term death and invasive ventilation were significantly increased. This result needs to be further confirmed by an ongoing randomized control trial.

Right ventricle assessment in patients with pulmonary embolism at low risk for death based on clinical models: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

Patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) at low risk for short-term death are candidates for home treatment or short-hospital stay. We aimed at determining whether the assessment of right ventricle dysfunction (RVD) or elevated troponin improves identification of low-risk patients over clinical models alone. Individual patient data meta-analysis of studies assessing the relationship between RVD or elevated troponin and short-term mortality in patients with acute PE at low risk for death based on clinical models (Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index, simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index or Hestia). The primary study outcome was short-term death defined as death occurring in hospital or within 30 days. Individual data of 5010 low-risk patients from 18 studies were pooled. Short-term mortality was 0.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4-1.3]. RVD at echocardiography, computed tomography or B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)/N-terminal pro BNP (NT-proBNP) was associated with increased risk for short-term death (1.5 vs. 0.3%; OR 4.81, 95% CI 1.98-11.68), death within 3 months (1.6 vs. 0.4%; OR 4.03, 95% CI 2.01-8.08), and PE-related death (1.1 vs. 0.04%; OR 22.9, 95% CI 2.89-181). Elevated troponin was associated with short-term death (OR 2.78, 95% CI 1.06-7.26) and death within 3 months (OR 3.68, 95% CI 1.75-7.74). RVD assessed by echocardiography, computed tomography, or elevated BNP/NT-proBNP levels and increased troponin are associated with short-term death in patients with acute PE at low risk based on clinical models. RVD assessment, mainly by BNP/NT-proBNP or echocardiography, should be considered to improve identification of low-risk patients that may be candidates for outpatient management or short hospital stay.

Prediction of short-term prognosis in elderly patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

The incidence of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) increases with age. Data on SICH mortality in the very old are sparse. We aimed to describe the predictors of 30-day SICH mortality in the very elderly in southern Portugal. A total of 256 community representative SICH patients aged ≥ 75years (2009-2016) were included. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify predictors of 30-day mortality. Mean age was 82.1years; 57.4% males. The 30-day case fatality was 38.7%. The frequency of patients taking anticoagulants (29.3% vs. 11.5%); comatose (46.9% vs. 2.5%); with hematoma volume ≥ 30mL (64.6% vs. 13.4%); intraventricular dissection (78.8% vs. 27.4%) was higher in deceased patients (p < 0.05). Survivors were more often admitted to stroke unit (SU) (68.2 vs. 31.3%) and had lower mean admission glycaemia values (p < 0.05). The likelihood of death was increased in patients with higher admission hematoma volume (≥ 30mL) (OR: 8.817, CI 1.753-44.340, p = 0.008) and with prior to SICH history of ≥ 2 hospitalizations OR = 1.022, CI 1.009-1.069, p = 0.031). Having higher Glasgow coma scale score, OR: 0.522, CI 0.394-0.692, p < 0.001, per unit was associated with reduced risk of death. Age was not an independent risk factor of short-term death. The short-term mortality is high in very elderly SICH. Prior to SICH history of hospitalization, an indirect and gross marker of coexistent functional reserve, not age per se, increases the risk of short-term death. Other predictors of short-term death are potentially manageable reinforcing the message against any defeatist attitude toward elderly patients with SICH.

Consecuencias en salud (mortalidad e institucionalización) de la fractura de cadera en la población anciana. Estudio de cohortes poblacional en Segovia

ObjectiveIn order to know the social and health consequences of hip fractures (HF). DesignA retrospective cohort study of an entire health area was carried out in patients aged 75 or more, over a period of 5 years. SiteSegovia Health Area. ParticipantsAll patients older than 75 years with a diagnosis of HF, excluding displaced and passerby. InterventionsThe socio-sanitary changes that occur after the HF in respect to their baseline situation (family situation, comorbidities, dependence and mental situation) and the variables which most influence mortality and institutionalization after the HF were analyzed. Main measurementsOne thousand one hundred fifty-nine HF were recorded, with a constant annual incidence of 10.7‰. The prevalence was higher in women: 7.4% versus 3.7%. ResultsThe baseline profile is a pluripatological, non-institutionalized, 87-year-old woman, who retains her independent in her daily life and suffers from a HF due to an accidental fall in her home. At the end of the study period 51% were permanently institutionalized, negatively influencing having worse mental deterioration, worse dependence and subsequent readmissions and in addition, 45.5% died, 25.5% during the first year. The most unfavorable conditions were being previously dependent, having severe mental deterioration, male and within the comorbidities the most influential was previously having an anemia. ConclusionsOur data confirms the deterioration of the autonomy-functional capacity after a HF, in line with what has been published, and has allowed to identify which elderly people are at the greatest risk of complications in the short and medium term (institutionalization and death).

Effects of Stress Hyperglycemia on Short-Term Prognosis of Patients Without Diabetes Mellitus in Coronary Care Unit.

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) has a high morbidity and mortality worldwide, and it is a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Non-diabetic stress hyperglycemia is common in severely ill patients, and it could affect prognosis. This study aimed to analyze the influence of different blood glucose levels on prognosis from the perspective of stress hyperglycemia by comparing them with normal blood glucose levels and those of patients with DM.Methods: A retrospective study of 1,401 patients in coronary care unit (CCU) from the critical care database called Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV was performed. Patients were assigned to the following groups 1–4 based on their history of DM, random blood glucose, and HbA1c levels: normal blood glucose group, moderate stress hyperglycemia group, severe stress hyperglycemia group and DM group. The main outcome of this study was 30- and 90-day mortality rates. The associations between groups and outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, Cox proportional hazard regression model and competing risk regression model.Results: A total of 1,401 patients in CCU were enrolled in this study. The Kaplan–Meier survival curve showed that group 1 had a higher survival probability than groups 3 and 4 in terms of 30- and 90-day mortalities. After controlling the potential confounders in Cox regression, groups 3 and 4 had a statistically significant higher risk of both mortalities than group 1, while no difference in mortality risk was found between groups 2 and 1. The hazard ratios [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 30- and 90-day mortality rates for group 3 were 2.77(1.39,5.54) and 2.59(1.31,5.12), respectively, while those for group 4 were 1.92(1.08,3.40) and 1.94(1.11,3.37), respectively.Conclusions: Severe stress hyperglycemia (≥200 mg/dL) in patients without DM in CCU may increase the risk of short-term death, which is greater than the prognostic effect in patients with diabetes. Patients with normal blood glucose levels and moderate stress hyperglycemia (140 mg/dL ≤ RBG <200 mg/dL) had no effect on short-term outcomes in patients with CCU.

Pre-existing atrial fibrillation is associated with increased mortality in COVID-19 Patients

PurposeThe impacts of pre-existing atrial fibrillation (AF) on COVID-19-associated outcomes are unclear. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the pooled prevalence of pre-existing AF and its short-term mortality risk in COVID-19 patients.MethodsPreferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed in abstracting data and assessing validity. We searched MEDLINE and Scopus to locate all the articles published up to January 31, 2021, reporting data on pre-existing AF among COVID-19 survivors and non-survivors. The pooled prevalence of pre-existing AF was calculated using a random effects model and presenting the related 95% confidence interval (CI), while the mortality risk was estimated using the Mantel-Haenszel random effects models with odds ratio (OR) and related 95% CI. Statistical heterogeneity was measured using the Higgins I2 statistic.ResultsTwelve studies, enrolling 15.562 COVID-19 patients (mean age 71.6 years), met the inclusion criteria and were included in the final analysis. The pooled prevalence of pre-existing AF was 11.0% of cases (95% CI: 7.8–15.2%, p < 0.0001) with high heterogeneity (I2 = 95.2%). Pre-existing AF was associated with higher risk of short-term death (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.47–3.36, p < 0.0001), with high heterogeneity (I2 = 79.1%).ConclusionPre-existing AF is present in about 11% of COVID-19 cases but results associated with an increased risk of short-term mortality.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10840-021-00992-2.

Decreased number of deaths related to severe traumatic brain injury in intensive care unit during the first lockdown in Normandy: at least one positive side effect of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has led to severe containment measures to protect the population in France. The first lockdown modified daily living and could have led to a decrease in the frequency of severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). In the present study, we compared the frequency and severity of severe TBI before and during the first containment in Normandy.MethodsWe included all patients admitted in the intensive care unit (ICU) for severe TBI in the two tertiary neurosurgical trauma centres of Normandy during the first lockdown. The year before the containment served as control. The primary outcome was the number of patients admitted per week in ICU. We compared the demographic characteristics, TBI mechanisms, CT scan, surgical procedure, and mortality rate.ResultsThe incidence of admissions for severe TBI in Normandy decreased by 33% during the containment. The aetiology of TBI significantly changed during the containment: there were less traffic road accidents and more TBI related to alcohol consumption. Patients with severe TBI during the containment had a better prognosis according to the impact score (p=0.04). We observed a significant decrease in the rate of short-term mortality related to severe TBI during the period of lockdown (p=0.02).ConclusionsContainment related to the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a modification of the mechanisms of severe TBI in Normandy, which was associated with a decline in the rate of short-term death in intensive unit care.

Development of an optimized risk score to predict short-term death among acute myocardial infarction patients in rural China.

BackgroundRisk stratification of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is of great clinical significance.HypothesisThe present study aimed to establish an optimized risk score to predict short‐term (6‐month) death among rural AMI patients from China.MethodsWe enrolled 6581 AMI patients and extracted relevant data. Patients were divided chronologically into a derivation cohort (n = 5539), to establish the multivariable risk prediction model, and a validation cohort (n = 1042), to validate the risk score.ResultsSix variables were identified as independent predictors of short‐term death and were used to establish the risk score: age, Killip class, blood glucose, creatinine, pulmonary artery systolic pressure, and percutaneous coronary intervention treatment. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the optimized risk score was 0.82 within the derivation cohort and 0.81 within the validation cohort. The diagnostic performance of the optimized risk score was superior to that of the GRACE risk score (AUC 0.76 and 0.75 in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively; p < .05).ConclusionThese results indicate that the optimized scoring method developed here is a simple and valuable instrument to accurately predict the risk of short‐term mortality in rural patients with AMI.

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Early Graft Dysfunction Following Heart Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

<h3>Purpose</h3> Early graft dysfunction (EGD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality following heart transplantation (HT). Severe EGD often includes the use of veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO). Studies evaluating its effectiveness are mostly single centre observations with variable outcomes. This systematic review and meta-analysis appraises the available evidence and evaluates prognosis in HT patients with EGD requiring VA-ECMO. <h3>Methods</h3> We conducted a systematic search of Ovid Medline, Embase and the Cochrane databases to 05/15/2020. Studies of adults who received VA-ECMO during their index hospitalization after HT and reported on mortality at any timepoint were included. We included observational studies published after 2009, in any language, as abstracts or full texts. Outcomes of interest were short-term mortality, 1-year mortality and VA-ECMO complications. We used QUIPS to assess risk of bias and GRADE to assess the quality of the evidence. Data was pooled using random-effects models. <h3>Results</h3> We included 50 studies of 1472 patients with 504 short-term mortality events. Most studies were retrospective (94%), single centre (88%), and at low/acceptable risk of bias overall (76%). Pooled short-term mortality was 33% (95%CI: 27-38%, I² =76%) and 1-year mortality was 46% (95%CI: 37-54%, I² =81%). Risk of bias, publication type, recruitment timeframe, and use of VA-ECMO for only primary graft dysfunction as per the ISHLT definition did not explain heterogeneity in subgroup analyses. Reported VA-ECMO complications were 38% (95%CI: 27-49%) for dialysis, 36% (95%CI: 26-47%) for bleeding, 22% (95%CI: 14-31%) for infection and 5% (95%CI: 1-10%) for limb ischemia. <h3>Conclusion</h3> One-third of HT patients with EGD supported with VA-ECMO are at risk of short-term death. An individual patient data meta-analysis is warranted to further understand the mortality risk and gain insight into risk factors associated with outcomes in this population.

The perioperative complications and short-term death in endovascular treatment for acute stroke induced by extracranial carotid occlusion: a systematic review and a meta-analysis.

Endovascular treatment (EVT) has been demonstrated superior to pharmacological thrombolysis in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) induced by extracranial internal carotid artery occlusion. This paper aims to summarize clinical evidence about EVT and assess its efficacy and safety on acute extracranial carotid occlusion. We systematically reviewed all studies that reported endovascular therapy as carotid stenting, stent retriever, aspiration, and angioplasty for acute extracranial carotid occlusion. Literature retrieval was performed in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane library, dated from January 1st, 2005 to December 31st, 2020. The primary endpoint was a favorable outcome rate. Major secondary endpoints were SICH incidence, 90-day mortality rate, and complications. Meta-analysis and subgroup analysis were conducted to identify predictors for prognosis. This systematic review has been registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020181154) on July 18, 2020. 10 studies with 620 patients were included in total. Endovascular approach presented a favorable outcome rate of 0.47 (0.37, 0.56), an acceptable 90-day mortality rate of 0.16 (0.13, 0.19), and a mild SICH rate of 0.07 (0.05, 0.10). Age and NIHSS at admission were negatively associated with favorable outcome, with odds ratio of 0.95 (0.92, 0.98) and 0.74 (0.62, 0.88) respectively. Lower age (p=0.049) and aspiration thrombectomy (p=0.041) predicted less SICH events. In subgroup in which time window > 6 hours, endovascular therapy presented similar encouraging results, with favorable outcome rate of 0.59 (0.51, 0.66), 90-day mortality rate of 0.11 (0.07, 0.17), and SICH rate of 0.04 (0.02, 0.09). EVT can effectively improve neurological function and reduce 90-day mortality for acute extracranial carotid occlusion patients without increasing the risk of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. Endovascular therapy is safe to perform from 6 to 24 hours after symptom onset.

Asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis: what is the current role of exercise stress test and NT-proBNP in patient risk stratification

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction Aortic stenosis (AS) is prevalent in the elderly population. When severe and the patient is symptomatic or left ventricular dysfunction arises, the prognosis deteriorates and valve replacement (AVR) is recommended. During the asymptomatic phase regular clinical evaluation is advised to detect early onset of symptoms and/or signs of myocardial maladaptation. Due to the inherent difficulties in the evaluation of symptoms, especially in the elderly, as well as the change in prognosis when symptoms appear (even if not perceived), it is crucial to evaluate the behavior of patients with effort and signs of myocardial injury. Methods An observational and retrospective study that included 74 patients followed at the Cardiology Service by severe AS (aortic valve area ≤ 1cm2 and/or aortic transvalvular mean gradient ≥40mmHg), who underwent exercise stress test (EST) and NT-proBNP evaluation for risk stratification. The outcome studied was hospitalization for heart failure (HF), or referral to SV, or death during the follow-up period. Independent predictors were obtained using multivariate Cox regression. Results Non-progression or decrease in systolic blood pressure (SBP) in EST is the only independent predictor of a short-term adverse event (p = 0.025). This parameter, NT-proBNP levels and interventricular septal thickness (IVS) were independent predictors of a medium (two (p = 0.025; p = 0.014; p = &amp;lt;0.001), three (p = 0.015; p = 0.007; p = 0.001) and four years (p = 0.007; p = 0.049; p = 0.005)) and a long term adverse event (p = 0.006; p = 0.028; p = 0.005). Conclusion In asymptomatic patients with severe AS, no progression or decrease in SBP in EST, increased NT-proBNP levels and thickness of IVS were independent predictors of hospitalization for HF, need for VS or death in short, medium and long term.

Preoperative Risk Prediction Models for Short-Term Revision and Death After Total Hip Arthroplasty: Data from the Finnish Arthroplasty Register.

Background:Because of the increasing number of total hip arthroplasties (THAs), even a small proportion of complications after the operation can lead to substantial individual difficulties and health-care costs. The aim of this study was to develop simple-to-use risk prediction models to assess the risk of the most common reasons for implant failure to facilitate clinical decision-making and to ensure long-term survival of primary THAs.Methods:We analyzed patient and surgical data reported to the Finnish Arthroplasty Register (FAR) on 25,919 primary THAs performed in Finland between May 2014 and January 2018. For the most frequent adverse outcomes after primary THA, we developed multivariable Lasso regression models based on the data of the randomly selected training cohort (two-thirds of the data). The performances of all models were validated using the remaining, independent test set consisting of 8,640 primary THAs (one-third of the data) not used for building the models.Results:The most common outcomes within 6 months after the primary THA were revision operations due to periprosthetic joint infection (1.1%), dislocation (0.7%), or periprosthetic fracture (0.5%), and death (0.7%). For each of these outcomes, Lasso regression identified subsets of variables required for accurate risk predictions. The highest discrimination performance, in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), was observed for death (0.84), whereas the performance was lower for revisions due to periprosthetic joint infection (0.68), dislocation (0.64), or periprosthetic fracture (0.65).Conclusions:Based on the small number of preoperative characteristics of the patient and modifiable surgical parameters, the developed risk prediction models can be easily used to assess the risk of revision or death. All developed models hold the potential to aid clinical decision-making, ultimately leading to improved clinical outcomes.Level of Evidence:Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Optimal treatment strategies for coronary artery disease in patients with advanced kidney disease: a meta-analysis

Background:Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death in advanced kidney disease. However, its best treatment has not been determined.Methods:We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases and scanned references to related articles. Studies comparing the different treatments for patients with CAD and advanced CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 ml/min/1.73 m2 or dialysis) were selected. The primary result was all-cause death, classified according to the follow-up time: short-term (<1 month), medium-term (1 month-1 year), and long-term (>1 year).Results:A total of 32 studies were selected to enroll 84,498 patients with advanced kidney disease. Compared with medical therapy (MT) alone, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was associated with low risk of short-, medium-term and long-term all-cause death (more than 3 years). For AMI patients, compared with MT, PCI was not associated with low risk of short- and medium-term all-cause death. For non-AMI patients, compared with MT, PCI was associated with low risk of long-term mortality (more than 3 years). Compared with MT, coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) had no significant advantages in each follow-up period of all-cause death. Compared with PCI, CABG was associated with a high risk of short-term death, but low risk of long-term death: 1–3 years; more than 3 years. CABG could also reduce the risk of long-term risk of cardiac death, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), myocardial infarction (MI), and repeat revascularization.Conclusions:In patients with advanced kidney disease and CAD, PCI reduced the risk of short-, medium- and long- term (more than 3 years) all-cause death compared with MT. Compared with PCI, CABG was associated with a high risk of short-term death and a low risk of long-term death and adverse events.

Grafalon® vs. Thymoglobulin® as an Induction Agent in Renal Transplantation - A Retrospective Study.

Introduction:Antihuman thymocyte immunoglobulin, used as an induction agent in renal transplantation, is of two types – thymoglobulin and grafalon (formerly ATG-Fresenius). In this study, we compared outcomes with these two agents.Methods:This was a single-center retrospective study of patients transplanted from January 2017 to October 2019, who received either grafalon or thymoglobulin induction. Grafalon or thymoglobulin was given at 6 and 3 mg/kg, respectively, followed by standard triple immunosuppression of tacrolimus, MMF, and prednisolone.Results:Median follow up was 22 (3–36) months. Thymoglobulin was given to 255 patients, whereas 78 patients received grafalon. Baseline demographics were similar between the two groups although significantly more patients in the grafalon group received ABO incompatible transplant (15% vs. 4.3%; P = 0.002). Patient survival was similar between the two groups (99% in grafalon vs. 98.8% in thymoglobulin; P = 1.0). Death censored graft survival was also similar (99% in grafalon vs. 100% in thymoglobulin; P = 0.23). Biopsy proven acute rejection (BPAR) was significantly higher in the grafalon group (12.8% vs. 5.1%, P = 0.04). The significance persisted after multivariable regression analysis (P = 0.02). Other outcomes such as infection rate and estimated glomerular filtration rate on last follow up were comparable between the two groups.Conclusions:Grafalon (6 mg/kg dose) when used as an induction agent was associated with significantly higher rate of BPARs as compared to thymoglobulin (3 mg/kg dose) although with comparable short-term patient and death censored graft survival, graft function, and infection rates.

Estimated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer services and excess 1-year mortality in people with cancer and multimorbidity: near real-time data on cancer care, cancer deaths and a population-based cohort study

ObjectivesTo estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer care services and overall (direct and indirect) excess deaths in people with cancer.MethodsWe employed near real-time weekly data on cancer...

Acute kidney injury after transcatheter aortic valve replacement: predictors and prognostic impact from a single, high-volume centre

Abstract Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) represents a common complication of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), occurring in a variable proportion (from 10% to 30%) and being associated with an increased length of hospital stay and a 2- to 6-fold higher risk of mortality. Purpose We sought to identify pre-procedural and procedural variables independently associated with AKI and to analyze AKI impact on 1-month and 1-year all-cause mortality. Methods We prospectively collected consecutive patients undergoing TAVR at our centre. AKI was defined according to the Valve Academic Research Consortium (VARC)-2 criteria, as an increase of at least 0.3 mg/dL in serum creatinine or a urine output worsening (&amp;lt;0.5 mL/kg for &amp;lt;12 hours) occurring within 7 days after the procedure. Results From 664 consecutive TAVR conducted between January 2010 and December 2018 we excluded 19 (2.9%) patients for unsuccessful procedure according to VARC-2 criteria leading to a population of 645 patients. The mean follow-up was 9.6±4.3 months, age was 83.2±5.3, 270 (41.9%) were men. AKI complicated TAVR procedure in 141 (21.9%) patients. All-cause mortality occurred in 14 (2.2%) at 1-month and 51 (7.9%) patients at 1-year. AKI was more likely to complicate TAVR in patients who died within 1-month (4.7% vs. 0.8%, p=0.003) and 1-year (14.1% vs. 5.3%, p&amp;lt;0.001) follow-up period. Multivariable regression analysis showed that baseline creatinine (OR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.20–1.78, p&amp;lt;0.001) and VARC-2 bleeding complications (OR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.04–2.12, p=0.029) were independently associated with AKI incidence, while non-significant covariates were: age, gender, contrast volume, use of self-expandable valve and peri-procedural rapid pacing. Multivariable analysis adjusted for age and sex showed that AKI (HR: 3.02, 95% CI: 1.03–8.90, p=0.045) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (HR: 4.12, 95% CI: 1.37–12.40, p=0.012) were independently associated with 1-month all-cause mortality. After 1 month, landmark analysis adjusted for age and sex showed that AKI (HR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.17–4.96, p=0.017) and peri-procedural myocardial injury (HR: 2.36, 95% CI: 1.05–5.31, p=0.037) were independent predictors of 1-year all-cause mortality, while COPD, non-transfemoral route, and bleeding complications were not independently associated. Conclusions In a contemporary cohort of consecutive patients undergoing TAVR, AKI complicated ∼1 out of 5 procedures and is linked with about 4-fold adjusted risk of short-term death at 1-month and about 2-fold adjusted risk of subsequent death events up to 1-year follow-up. Baseline creatinine and bleeding complications, but not contrast volume were independently associated with AKI incidence. Landmark analysis for 1-year mortality Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

Precipitating factors of heart failure decompensation, short-term morbidity and mortality in patients attended in primary care

Objective To evaluate the precipitating factors for heart failure decompensation in primary care and associations with short-term prognosis. Design Prospective cohort study with a 30-d follow-up from an index consultation. Regression models to determine independent factors associated with hospitalisation or death. Setting Primary care in ten European countries. Patients Patients with diagnosis of heart failure attended in primary care for a heart failure decompensation (increase of dyspnoea, unexplained weight gain or peripheral oedema). Main outcome measures Potential precipitating factors for decompensation of heart failure and their association with the event of hospitalisation or mortality 30 d after a decompensation. Results Of 692 patients 54% were women, mean age 81 (standard deviation [SD] 8.9) years; mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 55% (SD 12%). Most frequently identified heart failure precipitation factors were respiratory infections in 194 patients (28%), non-compliance of dietary recommendations in 184 (27%) and non-compliance with pharmacological treatment in 157 (23%). The two strongest precipitating factors to predict 30 d hospitalisation or death were respiratory infections (odds ratio [OR] 2.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] (2.4–3.4)) and atrial fibrillation (AF) > 110 beats/min (OR 2.2, CI 1.5–3.2). Multivariate analysis confirmed the association between the following variables and hospitalisation/death: In relation to precipitating factors: respiratory infection (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.14–1.25) and AF with heart rate > 110 beats/min (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.10–1.35); and regarding patient characteristics: New York Heart Association (NYHA) III or IV (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.15–1.29); previous hospitalisation (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.11–1.19); and LVEF < 40% (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.09–1.19). Conclusions In primary care, respiratory infections and rapid AF are the most important precipitating factors for hospitalisation and death within 30 d following an episode of heart failure decompensation. Key points Hospitalisation due to heart failure decompensation represents the highest share of healthcare costs for this disease. So far, no primary care studies have analysed the relationship between precipitating factors and short term prognosis of heart failure decompensation episodes. We found that in 692 patients with heart failure decompensation in primary care, the respiratory infection and rapid atrial fibrillation (AF) increased the risk of short-term hospital admission or death. Patients with a hospital admission the previous year and a decompensation episode caused by respiratory infection were even more likely to be hospitalized or die within 30 d.