Short-term Changes Research Articles

Flies on the rise: acclimation effect on mitochondrial oxidation capacity at normal and high temperatures in Drosophila melanogaster.

Increased average temperatures and extreme thermal events (such as heatwaves) brought forth by climate change impose important constraints on aerobic metabolism. Notably, mitochondrial metabolism, which is affected by both long- and short-term temperature changes, has been put forward as an important determinant for thermal tolerance of organisms. This study examined the influence of phenotypic plasticity on metabolic and physiological parameters in Drosophila melanogaster and the link between mitochondrial function and their upper thermal limits. We showed that D. melanogaster acclimated to 15°C have a 0.65°C lower critical thermal maximum (CTmax) compared with those acclimated to 24°C. Drosophila melanogaster acclimated to 15°C exhibited a higher proportion of shorter saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids, concomitant with lower proportions of polyunsaturated fatty acids. No mitochondrial quantitative changes (fractional area and number) were detected between acclimation groups, but changes of mitochondrial oxidation capacities were observed. Specifically, in both 15°C- and 24°C-acclimated flies, complex I-induced respiration was increased when measured between 15 and 24°C, but drastically declined when measured at 40°C. When succinate and glycerol-3-phosphate were added, this decrease was however compensated for in flies acclimated to 24°C, suggesting an important impact of acclimation on mitochondrial function related to thermal tolerance. Our study reveals that the use of oxidative substrates at high temperatures is influenced by acclimation temperature and strongly related to upper thermal tolerance as a difference of 0.65°C in CTmax translates into significant mitochondrial changes.

Contemporary Trends in the Spatial Extent of Common Riverine Fish Species in Australia’s Murray–Darling Basin

As one of the world’s most regulated river basins, the semi-arid Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) in south-eastern Australia is considered at high ecological risk, with substantial declines in native fish populations already identified and climate change threats looming. This places great importance on the collection and use of data to document population trends over large spatial extents, inform management decisions, and provide baselines from which change can be measured. We used two medium-term data sets (10 MDB basin-wide fish surveys from 2004–2022) covering the 23 catchments and 68 sub-catchments of the MDB to investigate trends in the distribution of common riverine species at the entire basin scale. Fifteen native species were analysed for changes in their contemporary range, and whilst short-term changes were identified, all species showed no significant continuous trend over the study period. We further analysed the native species extent relative to their historic records, with bony herring and golden perch occurring in 78% and 68% of their historic river kilometres, respectively, whereas southern pygmy perch, northern river blackfish, silver perch, mountain galaxias, and freshwater catfish were all estimated to occur in less than 10% of their historic extent. Six established non-native species were also analysed and were very consistent in extent over the years, suggesting that they are near the available limits of expansion of their invasion. We provide effect sizes for the spatial extent index which can be used as baselines for future studies, especially those aiming to monitor changes in the spatial extent and population status of native species, or changes in the spatial extent of new or existing non-native species.

Short-term changes in serum miRNA levels and patient-reported clinical outcomes in myasthenia gravis.

The circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) miR-150-5p, miR-30e-5p, and miR-21-5p have been suggested as potential biomarkers for myasthenia gravis (MG); however, the relationships between short-term natural changes of the miRNAs and patient-reported MG outcome scores have not been well-studied. We assessed the short-term fluctuations in miRNA levels and patient-reported outcome measures in MG. This prospective cohort study included 39 MG patients with regular follow-ups and unchanged medications at the Neurology outpatient clinic at Uppsala University Hospital. Patients had weekly follow-up visits for 1 month, at which blood samples were drawn, and scores from MG activities of daily living (MG-ADL), MG quality-of-life-15 (MG-QoL15), and Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS) were assessed. Serum levels of miRNA miR-150-5p, miR-30e-5p, and miR-21-5p were analyzed using quantitative real-time PCR. Intra-individual levels of miR-30e-5p and miR-150-5p were stable, whereas a significant reduction in miR-21-5p was observed from week 1 to week 2 (p = .0024) and from week 2 to week 3 (p < .0001). There were intra-individual differences over a short time in MG-ADL, with higher scores in female patients (p = .0281) and a significant reduction from the first to the second weeks (p = .0281), whereas MG-QoL15 and FSS scores were stable. The suggested MG biomarkers miR-30e-5p and miR-150-5p were more stable than miR-21-5p over a short time, indicating their short-term stability as biomarkers. Prospective multi-center studies with longer periods of follow-up and matched controls are needed to validate these miRNAs as biomarkers in MG.

Changes in corticospinal excitability during motor imagery by physical practice of a force production task: Effect of the rate of force development during practice

Transcranial magnetic stimulation studies have indicated that the physical practice of a force production task increases corticospinal excitability during motor imagery (MI) of that task. However, it is unclear whether this practice-induced facilitation of corticospinal excitability during MI depends on a repeatedly practiced rate of force development (RFD). We aimed to investigate whether corticospinal excitability during MI of an isometric force production task is facilitated only when imagining the motor task with the same RFD as the physically practiced RFD. Furthermore, we aimed to examine whether corticospinal excitability during MI only occurs immediately after physical practice or is maintained. Twenty-eight right-handed young adults practiced isometric ramp force production using right index finger abduction. Half of the participants (high group) practiced the force production with high RFD, and the other half (low group) practiced the force production with low RFD. Questionnaire scores indicating MI ability were similar in the two groups. We examined the force error relative to the target force during the force production task without visual feedback, and motor evoked potential (MEP) amplitudes of the first dorsal interosseous (FDI) and abductor pollicis brevis (APB) muscles during the MI of the force production task under practiced and unpracticed RFD conditions before, immediately after, and 20 min after physical practice. Our results demonstrated that the force error in both RFD conditions significantly decreased immediately after physical practice, irrespective of the RFD condition practiced. In the high group, the MEP amplitude of the FDI muscle during MI in the high RFD condition significantly increased immediately after practice compared to that before, whereas the MEP amplitude 20 min after practice was not significantly different from that before practice. Conversely, the MEP amplitude during MI in the high RFD condition did not change significantly in the low group, and neither group had significant changes in MEP amplitude during MI in the low RFD condition. The facilitatory effect of corticospinal excitability during MI with high RFD observed only immediately after physical practice in the high RFD condition may reflect short-term functional changes in the primary motor cortex induced by physical practice.

Enhanced perturbation measurement range chirped pulse ϕ-OTDR for distributed static measurements using feedback frequency-shift compensation technology

Chirped-pulse phase-sensitive optical time-domain reflectometry (CP-ϕOTDR) is a newly developed distributed optical fiber sensing (DOFS) technology that can measure physical quantities across the length of optical fiber. The measurement of perturbations as strain or temperature changes is performed by comparing the time domain trace of Rayleigh backscattered (RBS) light with a reference trace. However, large strain or temperature fluctuations or laser frequency noises necessitate frequent updates of the reference, and short-term change measurements must be integrated to obtain absolute strain or temperature, which introduces a 1/f noise component due to the combination of noise with each cumulative change. In this study, we propose a novel CP-ϕOTDR system based on frequency-shift compensation (FSC) technology. This system utilizes real-time feedback control of the central frequency of the incident laser to compensate for time domain trace distortion caused by large perturbations. It overcomes the limitations associated with the total chirp bandwidth and eliminates the 1/f noise component by obviating the need for frequent updates of the reference trace. The measuring range for perturbations is only limited to the wavelength range supported by the integrated optical devices, typically on the order of nanometers, corresponding to at least tens of Kelvin in temperature fluctuations or hundreds of micro-strains. To validate the effectiveness, we conducted a temperature measurement experiment involving a 1 K variation, which is about 90 times the maximum measurable perturbation that the original CP-ϕOTDR system can demodulate with the reference unchanged. The results demonstrate that the FSC method significantly expands the perturbation measurement range of the CP-ϕOTDR system.

Should I stay or should I go? The influence of environmental conditions on green turtle residence time and outward transit in foraging areas

Foraging animals move through the environment to satisfy their requirements for food, rest, reproduction and risk-avoidance. Understanding how animals respond to changing environmental conditions can help to characterise favourable habitat and determine whether they might be motivated to depart when those habitats become unsuitable. Foraging green turtles are typically residents that scarcely move in response to environmental changes or disturbances. Some individuals though, exhibit high mobility at fine scales. We developed an analysis of Fastloc GPS tracks of 61 green turtles using cox regression models and generalised linear mixed models to investigate the influence of a suite of environmental characteristics on the length of residence time and probability of turtles transitioning between two behavioural modes, “stay” or “go”. Decisions to move (“go”) were influenced by short-term changes in the local environmental conditions. Individuals were more likely to “stay” when temperature increased during their stay and were more likely to “go” when turbidity decreased, and they entered deeper habitats. This result implies that foraging and resting (“staying”) primarily occurs in benthic, shallow, warm habitats, while transit (“going”) is facilitated in deeper, clear water. We also determined that individuals within the green turtle foraging aggregation respond differently to environmental cues to move and hypothesise that a diversity of strategies within a foraging aggregation could confer its resilience to disturbance events. Our study provides new evidence of the factors influencing movements in green turtles and can aid in predicting how they may respond to future changes and enhance risk mitigation efforts through dynamic and adaptive planning.

Revealing short-term dynamics of tropical cyclone wind speeds from satellite synthetic aperture radar

Both unresolved physics in numerical models and limited theoretical understanding of the small-scale diffusion processes occurring near the ocean surface hamper predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) wind changes. An analytical model is here developed to diagnose the short-term evolution of the TC wind profile. An effective frictional parameter is introduced to control the unknown diffusion effects. When this frictional parameter is adjusted to match the TC intensity change, solutions are consistent with observed high-resolution ocean surface wind speeds from satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR). The initial high-resolution estimate of the near-core wind structure is then found to strongly modulate the wind profile evolution. The frictional parameter can, unfortunately, not efficiently be calibrated using outer-core wind speed changes. Low-resolution observations or standard numerical weather predictions may thus not be directly used to reinterpret and anticipate short-term TC wind changes. The expected accumulation of orbiting SAR sensors as well as improved measurements of the ocean-atmosphere boundary layer characteristics shall then become essential to more precisely monitor TC dynamics.

Dynamic association between suicidal ambivalence and suicide risk among individuals with a history of suicide attempts.

Suicide risk is highly fluctuating. There is a need for predictors of short-term change in suicide risk to optimize risk assessment and treatment, especially among individuals who already attempted suicide. Based on 1776 daily assessments of 16 former psychiatric inpatients with a history of suicide attempts, we examined how suicidal ambivalence and, respectively, wish to die (WTD) and wish to live (WTL) predicted same-day and change in perceived suicide risk (i.e., next-day perceived suicide risk, controlled for same-day perceived suicide risk) in multilevel regression models. Additionally, based on the assumptions of nonlinear dynamics, we examined the associations between levels of fluctuations in the WTD/WTL and perceived suicide risk within the same time period. Suicidal ambivalence, WTD, and a WTL significantly correlated with same-day suicide risk. Suicidal ambivalence and WTD significantly predicted change in suicide risk. Fluctuations in WTD were significantly associated with concurrent suicide risk. The results suggest that suicidal ambivalence and WTD are drivers of suicide risk among individuals who already attempted suicide. The association between fluctuations in WTD and suicide risk was small and warrants further investigation on the practical utility as a warning sign.

Short-Term Changes in Hypsarrhythmia Assessed by Spectral Analysis: Group and Individual Assessments.

Objectives: To perform spectral analysis on previously recorded electroencephalograms (EEGs) containing hypsarrhythmia in an initial recording and to assess changes in spectral power (µV2) in a follow-up recording after a period of 10-25 days. Methods: Fifty participants, aged 2-39 months, with hypsarrhythmia in an initial recording (R1), were compared with regard to their spectral findings in a later recording (R2). Typically, anticonvulsant therapy was initiated or modified after R1. Average delta, theta, alpha, and beta power was derived from approximately 3 min of artifact-free EEG data recorded from 19 electrode derivations. Group and individual changes in delta power between R1 and R2 formed the main analyses. Results: Delta accounted for 84% of the total power. In group comparisons, median delta power decreased statistically significantly between R1 and R2 in all 19 derivations, for example, from 3940 µV2 in R1 to 1722 µV2 in R2, Cz derivation. When assessing individual participants, delta power decreases in R2 were >50% in 60% of the participants, but <25% in 24% of the participants. Conclusion: Spectral analysis may be used as an additional tool for providing a potential biomarker in the assessment of short-term changes in hypsarrhythmia, including the effects of treatment.

A Person × Environment approach to Borderline Personality Disorder features in young people: The role of life events, parental support, and self-esteem

Introduction: This study aimed at examining the concurrent associations between stressful life events and borderline personality disorder (BPD) features in a clinical sample of young people. The moderating role of parental support and self-esteem was investigated (i.e., stress buffering). In a subsample, short term changes in BPD features were examined at a 6-month follow-up. Method: The total sample consisted of 318 young people (ages 12-26). Regression analyses were conducted to examine the link between stressful events, parental support, self-esteem, and BPD features. Prospective regression analyses were conducted in a subsample (N = 138). Results: Results indicate that stressful life-events and (low) self-esteem were related to more BPD features at wave 1. However, these associations did not hold in the prospective analyses. Also, no support was found for a stress-buffering effect. Discussion: The discrepancy between the concurrent and the prospective findings suggest that stressful events and self-esteem may be intertwined with BPD features, rather than predictive of change in BPD features 6 months later.

Analysing HCV incidence trends in people who inject drugs using serial behavioural and seroprevalence data: A modelling study

IntroductionThe introduction of new direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, has enabled the formulation of a HCV elimination strategy led by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Guidelines for elimination of HCV target a reduction in incidence, but this is difficult to measure and needs estimating. MethodsSerial cross-sectional bio-behavioural sero-surveys provide information on an individual's infection status and duration of exposure and how these change over time. These data can be used to estimate the rate of first infection through appropriate statistical models. This study utilised updated HCV seroprevalence information from the Unlinked Anonymous Monitoring survey, an annual survey of England, Wales and Northern Ireland monitoring the prevalence of blood borne viruses in people who inject drugs. Flexible parametric and semiparametric approaches, including fractional polynomials and splines, for estimating incidence rates by exposure time and survey year were implemented and compared. ResultsIncidence rates were shown to peak in those recently initiating injecting drug use at approximately 0.20 infections per person-year followed by a rapid reduction in the subsequent few years of injecting to approximately 0.05 infections per person-year. There was evidence of a rise in incidence rates for recent initiates between 2011 and 2020 from 0.17 infections per person-year (95 % CI, 0.16–0.19) to 0.26 infections per person-year (0.23–0.30). In those injecting for longer durations, incidence rates were stable over time. ConclusionsFractional polynomials provided an adequate fit with relatively few parameters, but splines may be preferable to ensure flexibility, in particular, to detect short-term changes in the rate of first infection over time that may be a result of treatment effects. Although chronic HCV prevalence has declined with treatment scale up over 2016–2020, there is no evidence yet of a corresponding fall in the rate of first infection. Seroprevalence and risk behaviour data can be used to estimate and monitor HCV incidence, providing insight into progress towards WHO defined elimination of HCV.

When Money Is Not Enough: Reimagining Public Health Requires Systematic Solutions To Hiring Barriers.

Public health departments in the US have experienced workforce shortages and challenges in recruiting new employees for decades. Reimagining the public health system will require sufficiently staffed health departments. This Commentary summarizes what is known about the issues that state and local health departments face during the hiring process, with a focus on civil service and merit-based hiring barriers. Although health departments have recently received funding to recruit new employees, they still struggle to hire them. Recommendations for change include tracking hiring process metrics; implementing formal quality improvement to strategically resolve delays; developing formal pathways for converting fellows, interns, and contractors into staff positions; and initiating workarounds in the short term and legal changes to hiring rules as necessary and feasible.

Short-term skin reactions and changes in stratum corneum following different ways of facial sheet mask usage

BackgroundThe global facial mask market grows steadily at 8.5% annually. However, prolonged use may lead to skin inflammation. ObjectiveTo investigate how various mask types and wearing durations impact skin physiology and aquaporins3 (AQP3) expression in healthy subjects. MethodsWe used a randomized controlled design to investigate the effects of three types of facial masks (pure water, hyaluronan, and bifida ferment lysate) and four different duration(5, 15, 25, and 40 min) on various skin parameters in volunteers, assessing moisture content, transepidermal water loss (TEWL), sebum, corneocyte size, and AQP3 expression before and after mask application, while also evaluating adverse reactions, discomfort, and noncompliance. ResultHydration and TEWL increased at first, then decreased. Sebum increased with all types of masks, particularly after 40 minutes. Vasodilation and AQP3 expression were linked to mask duration. Corneocyte sizes remained constant. The main adverse reactions were redness (10.71%, n=28) and dryness (57.14%, n=28), especially with pure water masks lasting over 25 minutes. ConclusionShort-term use of facial sheet masks (<25 minutes) benefits skin with improved hydration, reduced redness, and AQP3 activation, while prolonged use can lead to increased dryness and redness.

Climate change and population persistence in a hibernating marsupial.

Climate change has physiological consequences on organisms, ecosystems and human societies, surpassing the pace of organismal adaptation. Hibernating mammals are particularly vulnerable as winter survival is determined by short-term physiological changes triggered by temperature. In these animals, winter temperatures cannot surpass a certain threshold, above which hibernators arouse from torpor, increasing several fold their energy needs when food is unavailable. Here, we parameterized a numerical model predicting energy consumption in heterothermic species and modelled winter survival at different climate change scenarios. As a model species, we used the arboreal marsupial monito del monte (genus Dromiciops), which is recognized as one of the few South American hibernators. We modelled four climate change scenarios (from optimistic to pessimistic) based on IPCC projections, predicting that northern and coastal populations (Dromiciops bozinovici) will decline because the minimum number of cold days needed to survive the winter will not be attained. These populations are also the most affected by habitat fragmentation and changes in land use. Conversely, Andean and other highland populations, in cooler environments, are predicted to persist and thrive. Given the widespread presence of hibernating mammals around the world, models based on simple physiological parameters, such as this one, are becoming essential for predicting species responses to warming in the short term.

Combined effects of ambient temperature and food availability on induced innate immune response of a fruit-eating bat (Carollia perspicillata).

Resilience of mammals to anthropogenic climate and land-use changes is associated with the maintenance of adequate responses of several fitness-related traits such as those related to immune functions. Isolated and combined effects of decreased food availability and increased ambient temperature can lead to immunosuppression and greater susceptibility to disease. Our study tested the general hypothesis that decreased food availability, increased ambient temperature and the combined effect of both factors would affect selected physiological and behavioral components associated with the innate immune system of fruit-eating bats (Carollia perspicillata). Physiological (fever, leukocytosis and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio) and behavioral (food intake) components of the acute phase response, as well as bacterial killing ability of the plasma were assessed after immune challenge with lipopolysaccharide (LPS: 10 mg/kg) in experimental groups kept at different short-term conditions of food availability (ad libitum diet or 50% food-deprived) and ambient temperature (27 and 33°C). Our results indicate that magnitude of increase in body temperature was not affected by food availability, ambient temperature or the interaction of both factors, but the time to reach the highest increase took longer in LPS-injected bats that were kept under food restriction. The magnitude of increased neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio was affected by the interaction between food availability and ambient temperature, but food intake, total white blood cell count and bacterial killing ability were not affected by any factor or interaction. Overall, our results suggest that bacterial killing ability and most components of acute phase response examined are not affected by short-term changes in food availability and ambient temperature within the range evaluated in this study, and that the increase of the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio when bats are exposed to low food availability and high ambient temperature might represent an enhancement of cellular response to deal with infection.

Monitoring Long-Term Land Cover Change in Central Yakutia Using Sparse Time Series Landsat Data

Recently, as global climate change and local disturbances such as wildfires continue, long- and short-term changes in the high-latitude vegetation systems have been observed in various studies. Although remote sensing technology using optical satellites has been widely used in understanding vegetation dynamics in high-latitude areas, there has been limited understanding of various landscape changes at different spatiotemporal scales, their mutual relationships, and overall long-term landscape changes. The objective of this study is to devise a change monitoring strategy that can effectively observe landscape changes at different spatiotemporal scales in the boreal ecosystems from temporally sparse time series remote sensing data. We presented a new post-classification-based change analysis scheme and applied it to time series Landsat data for the central Yakutian study area. Spectral variability between time series data has been a major problem in the analysis of changes that make it difficult to distinguish long- and short-term land cover changes from seasonal growth activities. To address this issue effectively, two ideas in the time series classification, such as the stepwise classification and the lateral stacking strategies were implemented in the classification process. The proposed classification results showed consistently higher overall accuracies of more than 90% obtained in all classes throughout the study period. The temporal classification results revealed the distinct spatial and temporal patterns of the land cover changes in central Yakutia. The spatiotemporal distribution of the short-term class illustrated that the ecosystem disturbance caused by fire could be affected by local thermal and hydrological conditions of the active layer as well as climatic conditions. On the other hand, the long-term class changes revealed land cover trajectories that could not be explained by monotonic increase or decrease. To characterize the long-term land cover change patterns, we applied a piecewise linear model with two line segments to areal class changes. During the former half of the study period, which corresponds to the 2000s, the areal expansion of lakes on the eastern Lena River terrace was the dominant feature of the land cover change. On the other hand, the land cover changes in the latter half of the study period, which corresponds to the 2010s, exhibited that lake area decreased, particularly in the thermokarst lowlands close to the Lena and Aldan rivers. In this area, significant forest decline can also be identified during the 2010s.

#1678 The relationship between national dialysis catheter rates and kidney transplantations

Abstract Background and Aims Vascular access for chronic hemodialysis is either achieved by an arteriovenous fistula or graft (AVF/G) or central venous catheter (CVC) and AVF/Gs have been repeatedly reported to be superior to CVCs and guidelines usually recommend it as the preferred vascular access. AVF/Gs are associated with better quality of dialysis, less complications, and a lower mortality than CVCs. This has led to initiatives such as Fistula First that aimed at maximizing AVF/Gs rates and national healthcare systems now frequently evaluate their efficiency of care for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients based on this metric. However, transplant activity might be a significant confounding factor since high transplant rates and therefore limited transition phases might contribute to a higher acceptance of CVCs in patients awaiting kidney transplantation. I aimed at investigating the relationship between CVC rates and transplant activity in different countries by analyzing data from national dialysis and transplant registries. Method Data was obtained from national transplant and dialysis registries including Argentina (2012-2021), Australia (2004-2022), Austria (2005-2022), New Zealand (2005-2022), Sweden (2011-2022), Turkey (2004-2022), and the USA (2012-2021). Population estimates were obtained from the World Bank. The conducted analyses included unadjusted correlation analysis as well as multivariate regression analysis. Results The study sample included data from 7 different countries spanning from North and South America, over Europe and Asia to Oceania covering data from 107 annual reports. CVC rates and transplant activity per million showed a weak positive correlation (0.283, 95% CI: 0.093–0.454) within the same year (Fig. 1). When correlating catheter rates with transplant activity of the previous year, the association increased slightly (0.357, 95% CI: 0.173–0.517). The change of incidence of ESRD or hemodialysis patients (depending on data availability) showed a moderate correlation with the change of catheter rates (0.507, 95% CI: 0.272-0.685). A regression model including the incidence of ESRD improved model fit compared to a model that uses only transplant activity to estimate catheter rates. Conclusion Even though most healthcare systems, clinicians, and epidemiologists recommend low CVC rates, a thorough evaluation of the care of ESRD patients requires the adjustment of several contributing factors, primarily kidney transplantation activity. Higher kidney transplantation rates are associated with higher CVC rates which might be due to reduced waiting times until transplantation. An increase in kidney transplantations might especially increase CVC-based dialysis in the subsequent year. There is some evidence that the incidence of ESRD in general or hemodialysis in specific additionally affects CVC rates. Increasing incidence of ESRD is associated with increasing catheter rates, indicating that healthcare systems might struggle to adapt to short-term changes regarding access demands.

#1011 Clinical characteristics and outcomes of C3 glomerulopathy and immune complex MPGN from the UK National Registry of Rare Kidney Diseases (RaDaR)

Abstract Background and Aims Primary membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (MPGN), is a rare kidney disorder which can be further divided into immune-complex MPGN (IC-MPGN) and C3 glomerulopathy (C3G) based on relative complement and immunoglobulin staining on biopsy specimens. There is limited literature on the natural history and long-term outcomes of this disorder. The aims of this study were to: Method Adult and paediatric patients with diagnostic biopsy reports that could be classified or reclassified as C3G or IC-MPGN within RaDaR were included. RaDaR contains data on MPGN patients from kidney units across the UK, with automated collection of retrospective and prospective laboratory data. Follow-up time was from diagnosis, defined by biopsy date, until KF, death or last available test result. Kidney failure was defined as initiation of dialysis, kidney transplantation or sustained eGFR ≤15 mL/min/1.73 m2 for ≥4 weeks. Annualized rate of eGFR loss (eGFR slope) was calculated for the first 24 months and over full duration of follow-up. A linear mixed model was used to estimate each patient's intercept and slope of eGFR using a minimum of four observations. Analyses of time to KF were conducted using Kaplan–Meier estimates with log-rank tests for comparisons and Cox regression. The latter was used to investigate the association of early (within 24 months of diagnosis) changes in urine protein:creatinine ratio (UPCR), eGFR and eGFR slope with KF events over maximum of 20 years. Results Our cohort included 135 patients with C3G and 152 patients with IC-MPGN diagnosed between 1987 and 2020. At the time of diagnosis 153/287 (53%) of the cohort were paediatric (&amp;lt;18 years old). Both groups had significant proteinuria at baseline (Table 1). Median eGFR was 70 mL/min/1.73 m2 (IQR 30-92) and 58 mL/min/1.73 m2 (IQR 40-110) for C3G and IC-MPGN respectively. Median time to KF was 9.3 years for C3G and 12 years for IC-MPGN but the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.31). KF was significantly associated with changes in UPCR between 0-12 months and 6-12 months (HRs adjusted for eGFR) (Fig. 1). Similarly, a 50 mg/mmol reduction in time-averaged UPCR between 0-12 months and 6-12 months was also strongly associated with a lower risk of KF (HR adjusted for eGFR [95% Confidence Interval] 0.66 [0.53-0.83] and 0.71 [0.59-0.85] respectively). Both annualized 24 month eGFR slope, and percentage change in eGFR at 24 months were also significantly associated with KF events (Fig. 1). Conclusion We present one of largest studies describing the demographics, clinical characteristics, and long-term outcomes of 287 UK patients with IC-MPGN and C3G. Consistent with other studies we found no statistically significant difference in time to KF for C3G and IC-MPGN patients. We also demonstrate the value of short-term changes in proteinuria and eGFR (within 24 months of biopsy diagnosis), for predicting long-term risk of kidney failure.

Geomorphic indicators of continental-scale landscape transience in the Hengduan Mountains, SE Tibet, China

Abstract. Landscapes are sculpted by a complex response of surface processes to external forcings, such as climate and tectonics. Several major river captures have been documented in the Hengduan Mountains, leading to the hypothesis that the region experiences exceptionally high rates of drainage reorganization driven by horizontal shortening and propagating uplift. Here we determine the prevalence, intensity, and spatial patterns of ongoing drainage reorganization in the Hengduan Mountains and evaluate the relative timescales of this transience by comparing drainage divide asymmetry for four geomorphic metrics that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Specifically, we calculate the migration direction and the divide asymmetry index (DAI) for drainage divides using catchment-restricted topographic relief (CRR), hillslope gradient (HSG), normalized channel steepness (ksn), and normalized channel distance (χ). ksn and χ are both precipitation-corrected to account for the strong precipitation gradient across the region. The different spatial scales of these geomorphic metrics allow us to establish the relative timescales of observed landscape transience in the Hengduan Mountains, where local-scale metrics measure short-term change and integral quantities measure long-term disequilibrium. We find a high incidence of strongly asymmetric divides in all metrics across the Hengduan Mountain region. Although the magnitude of asymmetry varies significantly between metrics, possibly due to a combination of metric-specific thresholds and varying proxy relationships with erosion rate, a majority of divides agree on divide migration direction. Agreement in divide migration direction indicates an actively responding landscape when asymmetry is high and a state of quasi-equilibrium when asymmetry is low. Disagreements between the integral quantity, χ, and the other geomorphic metrics can be explained by different timescales of the underlying geomorphic processes, with χ reflecting a long-term response and CRR, HSG, and ksn capturing short-term perturbations to catchment structure. These perturbations include various transient mechanisms, such as differential tectonic uplift or erodibility, glacial alteration, and river captures. Our work confirms the high incidence of drainage reorganization across the Hengduan Mountains and highlights both transient and stable areas in the landscape with high resolution. We also offer valuable insights into the application of geomorphic metrics that can be generalized and applied to the study of landscape transience and drainage divide asymmetry in other settings.

Concurrent decline in teenage fertility rate and binge drinking? An observational study across 45 nations.

Alcohol consumption is associated with unintended pregnancies among teenagers. Its role as a broader determinant of teenage fertility rates remains unclear. We investigate whether adolescent binge drinking affects the number of teenage births. Binge drinking data from 137,898 females aged 15-16 were collected in the HBSC study (2002-2018, 43 countries/regions) and 267,359 in the ESPAD study (1995-2019, 41 countries/regions). Age-specific fertility rates were from the Human Fertility Database and the World Health Organization. We examined changes over time in countries' average levels of binge drinking among female pupils aged 15-16 and population-level fertility rates for the same cohorts when aged 16-19 years. Controlling for differences between countries and survey waves, we found an association between binge drinking and fertility rate, B = 0.019, 95% confidence interval [0.004, 0.034]. When accounting for the countries' time trends, the association was substantially reduced, B = 0.006, 95% confidence interval [-0.0062, 0.0174]. The relationship was not moderated by abortion rates and controlling for contraceptive use had no impact on the findings. The association between adolescent binge drinking and fertility rates diminishes when accounting for country-specific time trends. Given the lack of clear mechanisms linking binge drinking to trends in fertility rates rather than shorter-term changes, the association likely reflects broader secular trends. Binge drinking may be involved in teen pregnancy and childbirth in individual cases but it does not explain recent developments in teenage fertility rates.