Abstract Background Patients with IL10RA-deficient inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) generally have a poor prognosis, with high mortality and a significant rate of intestinal surgeries. Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is currently the main cure, but most patients still face death after transplantation. The study analyzes the prognosis of patients without HSCT, aiming to explore factors associated with both mortality and the need for intestinal surgery, as well as to establish short-term prognostic models. Methods The study retrospectively enrolled 138 patients admitted to our center from January 2012 to July 2024. We defined death and intestinal surgery as outcomes and used competing risks analysis, cox regression models, and random survival forest algorithm to explore prognostic factors. Additionally, optimal subset regression, and logistic regression were employed to establish a short-term prognostic model, with the goal of better assessing the severity of the patients' conditions and evaluating the likelihood of long-term survival, as well as the risks of short-term death or surgery. Results The median age of onset of 138 patients was 0.3 months (range: 0.2-1 months), and the median age of admission was 8.1 months (range: 3.0-15.2 months). 21.7% had pure homozygous mutations. The most frequent was c.301C>T,c.537G>A. 32.6% of patients died, of which 73.3% were transplant-related. 35.5% of patients had undergone intestinal surgery. In patients without HSCT, most deaths occurred within the first year, while intestinal surgeries were mainly performed by age four. Cox multivariate analysis identified thalidomide used as an independent protective factor against mortality (HR = 0.09, 95% CI: 0.02-0.46, P = 0.004). Intestinal perforation was a significant risk factor (HR = 9.39, 95% CI: 3.49-25.30, P < 0.001) for the outcome of intestinal surgery. The random survival forest model highlighted thalidomide, mesalazine, intestinal perforation and gross bloody stool as key variables affecting mortality or surgery risk, with thalidomide having the greatest impact. Short-term death model (age of admission, ALB, intestinal perforation) was well distinguished (AUC: 0.945), but poorly calibrated; Short-term surgical models (CRP, PLT, perianal lesions) were moderately distinguished (AUC: 0.799), and the calibration was reasonable. Conclusion Long-term survival is possible for IL10RA-deficient patients without HSCT. However, due to the risk of early-life adverse outcomes, close follow-up remains essential. Thalidomide appears to have the most significant impact on prognosis and may improve disease outcomes. The short-term prognostic assessment model demonstrates good discriminatory ability for distinguishing high-risk from low-risk patients.
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