Short Rate Research Articles

Short, Medium and Long-Term Cause-Specific Mortality Following First-Ever Heart Failure Hospitalisation in New Zealand

Heart failure (HF) is associated with high mortality, but there are limited reports on the underlying cause of death. This study reports short-, medium- and long-term cause-specific mortality following first-ever HF hospitalisation in New Zealand. First-ever HF hospitalisations were identified from hospital discharge coding between 2010 and 2013. Mortality outcomes were obtained via anonymised linkage to national datasets. Short (0-30 days), medium (31-364 days), and long-term (1-5 years) mortality rates were identified. Cause of death was identified from death certification coding and classified as cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular. Cox regression analysis was performed to adjust for confounding variables. A cohort of 34,264 individuals with first-ever HF hospitalisation were identified. Mean age was 75.8±13 years and 50.5% were male. A total of 21,637 (63.1%) died within 5 years of hospitalisation; 4,122 (12.0%) within the first 30 days, 6,358 (18.6%) between 31-364 days, and 11,157 (32.6%) between 1 and 5 years. Older age, male gender, Māori ethnicity, higher socioeconomic deprivation and increased comorbidity were independent factors associated with higher all-cause mortality. Cardiovascular causes accounted for 51% of total deaths. Cardiovascular mortality was 6.0%, 9.5%, and 16.7% at 30 days, 31-364 days, and 1-5 years, respectively. The most common causes of non-cardiovascular mortality were neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases and infections, accounting for 14.6%, 11.0%, and 5.5% of total deaths respectively. Comorbidity was associated with higher non-cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 3.35; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.16-3.55) but not cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.72-0.86). In New Zealand, mortality following first-ever HF hospitalisation is high. Non-cardiovascular death is common and there are ethnic inequities.

Therapeutic Insulin Analogue Concentrations at Infusion Sites Enhanced the Pro-Inflammatory Response and Apoptosis in an In Vitro Macrophage-Material Interaction Model.

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion for Type 1 diabetes relies upon insulin infusion sets (IIS) to reliably deliver insulin to a subcutaneous depot, where it is absorbed into systemic circulation. However, IIS are plagued by short wear times and high failure rates, due in part to inconsistent insulin absorption that can arise over time. While emerging evidence suggests that the local inflammatory response to the IIS cannula may impact both wear times and unreliable insulin adsorption, the mechanisms are poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effects of local infused insulin concentrations on the biomaterial host response to better understand the underlying factors that limit the IIS performance. We first modeled the insulin concentration for a constant basal infusion rate to select a relevant insulin concentration range of 0.1-10 U/mL within the infusion site. We then examined the influence of a commercial insulin analogue (Humulin-N) using an in vitro macrophage-material model, which uses adsorbed fibroblast lysate (containing damage-associated molecular patterns) to activate macrophages and recapitulates macrophage responses on implanted biomaterials. RAW-Blue macrophages cultured on lysate-adsorbed surfaces had increased nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) and activating protein 1 (AP-1) activity and intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) accumulation compared to control surfaces. Humulin-N concentration (0.5-10 U/mL) enhanced the NF-κB/AP-1 activity and ROS accumulation in macrophages on lysate-adsorbed surfaces. However, Humulin-N had no effect on NF-κB/AP-1 or ROS in the absence of the inflammatory stimulus. Additionally, high insulin concentrations arising from therapeutic doses induced macrophage apoptosis with and without adsorbed lysate. This study contributes to emerging evidence that infused insulin affects the tissue response to IIS.

The impact of metabolic syndrome on short term radical cystectomy complications

PurposeRadical cystectomy is a highly morbid procedure with short term perioperative complications rates cited to be as high as 60%. Short term perioperative complications have been demonstrated to be more frequent in underweight and overweight patients. We sought to evaluate the impact of metabolic syndrome on surgical outcomes. Materials and methodsWe identified 19,071 eligible patients who underwent radical cystectomy for nonmetastatic bladder cancer using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database between the years 2014 to 2021. The primary exposure was the presence of metabolic syndrome (body mass index >30, hypertension, diabetes) and included 1,566 patients. Our primary outcome was the development of a post operative surgical complication with secondary outcomes of the impact on length of stay, return to operating room, readmission, and 30 day mortality. ResultsMetabolic syndrome was associated with an increased rate of complications following radical cystectomy (P < 0.001). Complications were demonstrated in 68% of patients with metabolic syndrome in comparison to 60% of those without. Following multivariable adjustment for relevant demographic, comorbidity, and treatment factors, compared to patients without metabolic syndrome, patients with metabolic syndrome were significantly more likely to experience a complication in the 30 days following cystectomy. Among the secondary outcomes, on multivariable analysis significant differences were found in the risk of readmission and extended length of stay. Critically, the risk of 30 day morbidity was associated with a 1.8 fold increase in those with metabolic syndrome. ConclusionsMetabolic syndrome demonstrates significantly worse perioperative outcomes following radical cystectomy for bladder cancer.

Exploring the interconnection between international crude oil and silver rates volatilities: Novel evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

Several research studies globally focus on the volatility of gold and oil prices, neglecting an examination of silver price volatility in relation to other market commodities. The current Covid-19 pandemic has led to various uncertainties and fluctuations in financial and stock exchange markets, yet existing literature primarily concentrates on individual product rates rather than combined rate changes. Our study aims to bridge this research gap by analyzing the relationship between oil rates, silver rates, oil rate transitions, and silver rate transitions on the security exchange in China from 1990 to 2022, using the ARDL approach and Nonlinear ARDL for a comprehensive assessment. The findings reveal a significant impact of silver and oil rates on China's security exchange in the future, with the negative effects of oil rate changes and a positive effect of silver rate transitions. In the short term, oil and silver rates play a crucial role in influencing China's security exchange, highlighting the importance of monitoring these trends for investors. It is recommended that investors respond prudently to market transitions, particularly by considering silver as a secure option during times of uncertainty, while policymakers should implement appropriate measures to manage the rapid fluctuations from oil to the security market.

A Rehabilitation Algorithm After Lateral Ankle Sprains in Professional Football (Soccer): An Approach Based on Clinical Practice Guidelines.

Lateral ankle sprain (LAS) is one of the most common types of injury in professional football (soccer) players with high risk of recurrence. The rehabilitation after LAS in professional football players is often still time-based and relies on anecdotal experience of clinicans. There is still a lack of utilization of criteria-based rehabilitation concepts after LAS in professional football. The aims of this clinical commentary are (1) to critically discuss the need for criteria-based rehabilitation concepts after LAS in professional football players, (2) to highlight the current lack of these approaches and (3) to present a novel clinical guideline-based rehabilitation algorithm. Short time-loss (15 days) and high recurrence rate (17%) raise the question of trivialization of LAS in professional football. Despite consequences for many stakeholders involved (players, teams, clubs, insurers), there is still a lack of of criteria-based, step-by-step approaches. The use of a criteria-based rehabilitation approach might reduce the high recurrence rate after LAS in professional football players and will lead, in turn, to increased long-term player availability. Practical experiences of he authors demonstrate the feasibility of such an approach. The effectiveness of this novel rehabilitation algorithm remains to be evaluated in future studies. Level of Evidence: 5.

Why Have Long-term Treasury Yields Fallen Since the 1980s? Expected Short Rates and Term Premiums in (Quasi-) Real Time

Treasury yields have fallen since the 1980s. Standard decompositions of Treasury yields into expected short-term interest rates and term premiums suggest term premiums account for much of the decline. In an alternative real-time decomposition, term premiums have fluctuated in a stable range, while long-run expected short-term interest rates have fallen. For example, a real-time decomposition of the 10-yr. Treasury yield shows term premiums essentially equal in late 2013 and 2023, while the long-run value of expected short-term interest rates is estimated to have fallen in a manner similar to the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections and estimates from research on long-run neutral interest rates. These results suggest standard decompositions may overstate the role of term premiums in fluctuations of the yield curve.

Monetary policy and uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from a wavelet and frequency connectedness analysis

Interconnected financial markets, especially those stemming from changes in monetary policy or shifts in financial, political, or geopolitical conditions, ease the transmission of spillovers. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers and investors. Therefore, identifying cross-country spillovers across time and frequency domains, along with assessing the role of monetary policy during periods of economic instability and escalating geopolitical risk, holds significant importance. This study contributes to the literature by revealing important aspects of network connectedness among monetary policy and uncertainty indices, in terms of frequency and time horizon, for the US and the UK, over the period 2014–2023. First, we find stronger interdependence between the series in the long term, with short-medium run connectedness prevailing during specific periods and events, such as Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russian-Ukrainian War. Second, shadow short rates often receive spillovers from financial stress in the short-medium term but transmit spillovers in the long term, implying the stabilizing influence of monetary policy in the long run. Third, geopolitical risk is responsible for most of the spillovers reflected in financial and economic uncertainty in 2022, and finally, the US emerges as the dominant transmitter of spillovers to the UK.

The key point of transsphenoidal surgery for infradiaphragmatic craniopharyngioma：Better sellar diaphragm resection

BackgroundCraniopharyngiomas have a high recurrence rate and a poor prognosis, and the key methods for reducing recurrences are unknown. The aim of this study was to explore the key points of microscopic or endoscopic transsphenoidal surgery used to treat infradiaphragmatic craniopharyngiomas. MethodsWe reviewed the medical records of patients with infradiaphragmatic craniopharyngiomas who were admitted to Peking Union Medical College Hospital between 2011 and 2018. ResultsWhen considering tumor location, all 34 patients had intrasellar tumors, with 19 of them exhibiting suprasellar extensions. Of the 34 patients, 24 patients underwent resection under the microscope and the remaining 10 patients underwent transsphenoidal endoscopic surgery. Gross total tumor resection was achieved in 16 patients. Twelve patients underwent invaded sellar diaphragm resection, while the remaining 22 patients were not. Cerebrospinal fluid leaks occurred during surgery in 18 patients. Visual acuity improved in two patients. After an average follow-up of 31.1 months, 13 patients experienced tumor recurrence. The short term recurrence rate in the sellar diaphragm resection group was significantly lower compared to the non-resected group (P < 0.001). Moreover, based on distinct surgical methods, the endoscope group displayed a reduced short term recurrence rate compared to the microscope group (P = 0.0048). ConclusionInvaded sellar diaphragm resection emerges as a pivotal maneuver in craniopharyngioma surgery, substantively influencing tumor recurrence. Capitalizing on the advantageous angled lens of endoscopes, surgeons can achieve heightened visualization. Significantly, the endoscopic approach exhibits a superior capacity to curtail recurrence, while effectively managing potential complications, when contrasted with the microscope group.

Interest rate convexity in a Gaussian framework

The contributions of this paper are twofold: we define and investigate the properties of a short rate model driven by a general Gaussian Volterra process and, after defining precisely a notion of convexity adjustment, derive explicit formulae for it.

Monetary policy uncertainty and ESG performance across energy firms

This study investigates the relationship between monetary policy uncertainty and the Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance of energy firms. For empirical analysis this study used unbalanced panel data of 3991 firm-year observations from 35 countries covering the period from 2002 to 2021. Utilizing the Shadow Short Rate as a proxy for monetary policy uncertainty, our baseline results reveal a consistent negative association between uncertainty and ESG performance within the energy sector. To address endogeneity concerns, two-step system GMM, 2SLS, and PSM were employed. The channel analysis on the interaction between monetary policy uncertainty and eco-friendly practices indicated a positive association between the interaction and energy firms' ESG performance. Thus, strategic alignment with sustainability goals is crucial for mitigating the adverse impacts of monetary policy uncertainty and ensuring long-term ESG performance of energy firms. Policy implications suggest that regulators can contribute to economic stability by reducing uncertainty, while policymakers can incentivize sustainable practices.

Unveiling the types of growth patterns of mobile startups: do business models matter?

ABSTRACT It is important to understand the growth of startups because they are a driver of economic prosperity and wealth. However, due to their short history and high failure rate, research measuring startup growth has been limited and has relied on qualitative data. This study uses monthly active user (MAU) data of mobile-based startups (n = 266) collected by InnoForest, a startup growth analysis platform in South Korea, to classify the patterns of their growth curves using GA-NLS-based Bass model estimation. We also investigate how growth patterns differ depending on several popular business characteristics across mobile apps. The Bass model was used to categorise the pattern of the growth curve, resulting in the four growth patterns: Stealthy Influencer, Rapid Scaler, Late Bloomer, and Niche Dominator. Furthermore, there were differences in growth patterns between the platform and non-platform businesses, and between fixed-fee and pay-per-transaction services. This study reveals that the growth of mobile-based startups, as measured by MAUs using Bass model, follows different patterns depending on the attitudes of the users of startups’ apps and the speed at which apps’ growth peaks. The results can be useful for developing startup growth strategies, making investment decisions, and formulating policies for startup growth.

Guidelines for estimating occupancy from autocorrelated camera trap detections

Abstract Site occupancy models (SOMs) are a common tool for studying the spatial ecology of wildlife. When observational data are collected using passive monitoring field methods, including camera traps or autonomous recorders, detections of animals may be temporally autocorrelated, leading to biased estimates and incorrectly quantified uncertainty. We presently lack clear guidance for understanding and mitigating the consequences of temporal autocorrelation when estimating occupancy models with camera trap data. We use simulations to explore when and how autocorrelation gives rise to biased or overconfident estimates of occupancy. We explore the impact of sampling design and biological conditions on model performance in the presence of autocorrelation, investigate the usefulness of several techniques for identifying and mitigating bias and compare performance of the SOM to a model that explicitly estimates autocorrelation. We also conduct a case study using detections of 22 North American mammals. We show that a join count goodness‐of‐fit test previously proposed for identifying clustered detections is effective for detecting autocorrelation across a range of conditions. We find that strong bias occurs in the estimated occupancy intercept when survey durations are short and detection rates are low. We provide a reference table for assessing the degree of bias to be expected under all conditions. We further find that discretizing data with larger windows decreases the magnitude of bias introduced by autocorrelation. In our case study, we find that detections of most species are autocorrelated and demonstrate how larger detection windows might mitigate the resulting bias. Our findings suggest that autocorrelation is likely widespread in camera trap data and that many previous studies of occupancy based on camera trap data may have systematically underestimated occupancy probabilities. Moving forward, we recommend that ecologists estimating occupancy from camera trap data use the join count goodness‐of‐fit test to determine whether autocorrelation is present in their data. If it is, SOMs should use large detection windows to mitigate bias and more accurately quantify uncertainty in occupancy model parameters. Ecologists should not use gaps between detection periods, which are ineffective at mitigating temporal structure in data and discard useful data.

Demonstration of participation in the German balancing power market using a large‐capacity hybrid battery storage system

AbstractAs one of NEDO's international demonstration projects, a large‐capacity hybrid battery storage system which consists of two types of battery cells with different charge‐discharge characteristics was constructed in the state of Lower Saxony in the Federal Republic of Germany. By using the hybrid battery system has a lithium‐ion which has an advantage in short time and high rate, and a sodium‐sulfur battery (NAS) which has an advantage in long time and low rate, the tender participation in the balancing power market in Germany had been executed. The hybrid battery storage system could successfully drive and provided services for primary and secondary control reserves, elimination of power imbalance, and reactive power injection, as well as a combination of these services.

Changes in physicochemical characteristics of wheat flour and quality of fresh wet noodles induced by microwave treatment

Fresh wet noodles (FWN) are popular staple foods due to its unique chewy texture and favorable taste. However, the development of FWN is limited by its short shelf life and high browning rate. It has been found that the quantity of original microorganisms in wheat flour produced by traditional method is relatively high, which is detrimental to the processing quality and storage stability of FWN. Consequently, it becomes imperative to decrease microorganisms in wheat flour. Microwave treatment has been regarded as a promising method in the food industry due to its potential in inhibiting microbial growth and inactivating enzymes without causing adverse effect on the food quality. This study aims to investigate the effects of microwave treatment of wheat kernels under different powers (1, 2, 3, 4, 5 kW) on the physicochemical properties of wheat flour and the quality of FWN. The results revealed that microwave treatment had a significant effect on microbial inhibition and enzyme inactivation, wherein the total plate count (TPC) and yeast and mold counts (YMC) decreased by 0.87 lg(CFU/g) and 1.13 lg(CFU/g) respectively, and PPO activity decreased from 11.40 U to 6.31 U. The dough quality properties, such as stability, extensibility, and starch viscosity, improved significantly under different microwave conditions. Confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) images indicated that starch and proteins aggregated gradually in treated flour, altering rheological properties of dough. From the results of scanning electron microscopy (SEM), microwave treatment led to the appearance of disrupted structure in the gluten proteins, but the secondary structure of proteins altered slightly. Rheological properties of dough confirmed that the microwave treatment greatly affected processing characteristics of wheat flour products, with significant advantageous consequences on product quality, especially for textural properties of FWN. Furthermore, FWN darkening could be inhibited noticeably after microwave treatment, thereby prolonging its shelf life. Therefore, microwave treatment could thus be an effective, practical technology to produce low-bacterial flour and thereby enhance its product quality.

P.099 Transfer RNA fragments in patient plasma extracellular vesicles as biomarkers of high grade glioma

Background: High-grade gliomas (HGG) present challenges with short post-surgery survival and high progression rates. Extracellular vesicles (EVs) in the tumor microenvironment (TME) contribute to a pro-tumorigenic setting. Investigating Transfer RNA fragments (TfRNA) in HGG patient plasma EVs reveals potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets, shedding light on the molecular landscape for enhanced diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. This study examines TfRNA in 10 HGG patients at diagnosis, offering insights into the molecular landscape for improved management strategies. Methods: The study involved the collection of plasma samples from HGG patients and controls. EVs were isolated from these samples and subsequently analyzed for tfRNA. Results: Analysis of plasma EVs highlighted distinct differences in TfRNA fragments between High-Grade Glioma (HGG) and control samples. HGG EVs showed a global reduction in tRNA content, higher 5’ tfRNA proportions, and increased nuclear tfrna compared to controls. A notable biological marker, elevated in HGG, holds potential as a diagnostic indicator. Conclusions: Our study concludes that High-Grade Gliomas (HGG) demonstrate a global reduction in tfRNA content in plasma extracellular vesicles compared to non-cancer controls, echoing findings in other cancers. Despite this, specific tfRNA molecules in HGG show significant differential expression or sorting into EVs, indicating their potential as future biomarkers or therapeutic targets.

Clinical and long term safety outcomes of conduction system pacing compared to biventricular pacing : a large retrospective cohort study

Abstract Background Biventricular pacing (BVP) is the gold standard for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). Recently, studies have shown promising results for conduction system pacing (CSP) as an alternative to BVP. However, the small study samples and paucity of data concerning long term safety of these devices prevent CSP from being used as first line therapy. Purpose This study examines clinical outcomes and long term safety of CSP compared to BVP. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study from patients receiving CSP or BVP. All patients implanted with either CSP (N = 282) or BVP (N = 216) from 2018 to 2023 were included. Patients had to complete at least 3 months of follow-up and CSP patients had to pace at least 20% of time at first visit. The outcomes were defined as at least one heart failure hospitalization and the complication rates for both arms. Results Median [IQR] follow-up time was 1.64 years [0.73 – 2.80]. Heart failure admissions were numerically lower for CSP group but when adjusted to confounders the adjusted odds ratio was 0.75 in the CSP group compared to BVP ([95% CI, 0.43-1.31]; P = 0.32). Long term complication rates (infection, lead dysfunction, diaphragmatic stimulation requiring system revision, etc.) were lower in the CSP group (4 [1.4%] vs 10 [4.7%]; odds ratio, 0.21 [95% CI, 0.06-0.69]; P = 0.01). Short term complication rates (lead displacement, infection, pneumothorax, etc.) were however similar for both arms (16 [5.7%] vs 11 [5.1%]; odds ratio, 1.53 [95% CI, 0.64-3.65]; P = 0.33). In two patients, septal lead extraction after over a year was possible without any sequelae. The change in the QRS duration went from 150 ms to 149 ms for group (p=NS) and from 153ms to 144ms for comparable CSP group (P = 0,01). Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) increased from 28% to 40% in the BVP group and from 32% to 40% in the CSP group with pre intervention LVEF less than 50% (P &amp;lt; 0.0001 for both groups). Procedure duration was significantly shorter for CSP (82.3 minutes [32] vs 93.1[39.1]; P = .0002). Conclusion CSP approach achieves similar clinical results as BVP, with significantly less complications, shorter implant times, shorter QRS durations and comparable LVEF improvement. All these favorable results are obtained using less leads and simpler devices.

Experimental evaluation of the short and long fatigue crack growth rate of S355 structural steel offshore monopile weldments in air and synthetic seawater

Welded steel structures used in the offshore wind industry are exposed to harsh marine environments, which can result in corrosion-induced fatigue damage. Of particular concern is the heat affected zone (HAZ) of welded joints, a region known for its altered microstructure and mechanical properties, which can significantly influence the initiation and propagation of fatigue cracks. This study investigates the short and long fatigue crack growth rates, and the effect of seawater exposure, for the HAZ in S355 steel weldments. Single-edge notch bend (SENB) specimens are used, with a shallow notch in the HAZ. A series of specimens is immersed in synthetic seawater that is continuously circulated at a controlled temperature to assess the synergistic effects of corrosion and fatigue. The experimental method integrates a novel application of front face strain compliance for monitoring short cracks, alongside an extended back-face strain compliance approach for monitoring long crack propagation. It is concluded that the short fatigue crack growth rate of the HAZ is 2.7 to 3.5 times higher in seawater as compared to air. As the crack propagates and enters into the long crack regime, the ratio decreases to 2.2 times at the transition point of the two-stage crack growth curve and further decreases to 1.5 times when the notch advances towards fracture. The findings indicate that the fatigue crack growth rates documented in standards tend to be on the conservative side. This study significantly enriches the fatigue crack growth data available in literature, which will contribute to a more accurate lifetime assessment offshore wind turbine structures.

Quick UDP Internet Connections and Transmission Control Protocol in unsafe networks: A comparative analysis

AbstractSecure data transmission and efficient network performance are both key aspects of the modern Internet. Traditionally, Transport Layer Security (TLS)/Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) has been used for reliable and secure networking communications. In the past decade, Quick User Datagram Protocol (UDP) Internet Connections QUIC has been designed and implemented on UDP, attempting to improve security and efficiency of Internet traffic. Real‐world platform investigations are carried out in this paper to evaluate TLS/TCP and QUIC/UDP in maintaining communication, security and efficiency under three different types of popular cyber‐attacks. A set of interesting findings, including delay, loss, server CPU utilisation and server memory usage are presented to provide a comprehensive understanding of the two protocol stacks in performing malicious traffic. More specifically, in terms of the efficiency in achieving short delays and low packet loss rates with limited CPU and memory resources, QUIC/UDP performs better under Denial of Service attacks but TLS/TCP overtakes QUIC/UDP when handling MitM attacks. In terms of security, the implementation of TCP tends to be more secure than QUIC, but QUIC traffic patterns are harder to learn using machine learning methods. We hope that these insights will be informative in protocol selection for future networks and applications, as well as shedding light on the further development of the two protocol stacks.

An Investigation into the Pricing and Replenishment Strategy of Vegetable Commodities in Fresh Food Shops

Fresh supermarkets face challenges in marketing and inventory management due to the short shelf life and high loss rate of fresh vegetables. This necessitates the immediate development of a practical replenishment plan and pricing strategy. The paper commences by analyzing the sales distribution patterns of various vegetable categories, identifying leaves and flowers as having notably higher sales compared to other categories. Subsequent examination of the sales trend over time reveals variations in the sales of different categories or individual vegetables across months or quarterly periods, indicating a degree of seasonality. This study calculates the Spearman correlation coefficient for each category and individual product sales, presenting the results in a heat map. Findings indicate a significant positive correlation among all vegetable categories except for solanaceae, implying bundled sales or a consumer tendency to purchase specific vegetable categories concurrently. Consequently, when formulating replenishment and pricing strategies, considering a rational sales mix is crucial. The paper constructs a linear regression model, solving the equation using the least squares approach, and identifies a negative association between sales volume and cost-plus pricing. To accommodate seasonal patterns, the Prophet time series model forecasts wholesale prices for various vegetable categories during July 1-7, 2023. The objective is to maximize profit by accurately predicting vegetable costs. A nonlinear programming model is formulated to achieve this objective, determining the maximum revenue from days 1 to 7 as ￥(108953.65 - K), where K represents the fixed indirect cost. The model optimizes replenishment and pricing strategies for different categories.

An affine model for short rates when monetary policy is path dependent

An affine model for short rates when monetary policy is path dependent