Short Inflation Research Articles

Exploring the nexus between urbanisation, inflation and tourism output: empirical evidences from the Fiji Islands

ABSTRACTThe main aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between urbanisation, inflation and tourism output of Fiji. This study used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test to examine the relationship between urbanisation, inflation and tourism output by using annual time series data for the period 1985–2015. This study has found that urbanisation, inflation and tourism output share a long-run relationship when urbanisation and inflation are used as the dependent variables. The results of this study confirm that in the long run, tourism output has a significant and positive impact on urbanisation. This implies that a 1% increase in tourism output will increase urbanisation by 0.000165%. In the short run, urbanisation and inflation do not affect the tourism output of Fiji. The findings from this study have implications for the policy-makers and practitioners. Policy-makers should play an essential role in expanding tourism activities in the rural areas. In Fiji, there is development disparity between the urban and rural areas. The government has to invest more financial resources in the development of tourism activities in the rural areas.

Decomposing real and nominal yield curves

Inflation-indexed and nominal yield curves capture investors׳ expectations of real short rates and inflation as well as their required compensation for bearing liquidity, inflation, and real interest rate risk. We estimate an affine term structure model that allows us to decompose real and nominal bond yields into these components and use the model to study the transmission of monetary policy. The model decompositions imply that the Federal Reserve׳s announcements of LSAPs lowered yields primarily by reducing real term premia. Changes in real term premia also account for the strong response of long-term real forward rates to federal funds rate surprises.

Systems of local drug delivery to arterial wall for prevention of in-stent restenosis

New generation, drug-eluting stents used in the treatment of coronary and peripheral atherosclerotic disease (CPAD) significantly reduced restenosis and revascularization rates as well as frequency of thrombosis as compared to bare metal stents and first-generation drug eluting stents. However, despite fast development of this technology several reports have been published recently that describe cases of late and very late stent thrombosis, restenosis and neoatheroslerosis within arterial segments with previously implanted stents. For this reason many research are being conducted with the aim to design alternative methods for intra-arterial drugs delivery in order to reduce restenosis and revascularization rates, yet eliminating adverse effects mentioned above. One of possibilities is lipophilic and antiproliferative drug coated balloon technology, which offers high drug concentration in arterial tissue and restenotic effect in selected clinical situations despite the short balloon inflation time. A particularly interesting option is intra-arterial delivery of drugs with different mechanisms of action, regardless of their lipophilicity by loading them into biodegradable nanospheres. In this paper, currently used systems for local drug delivery have been described including their limitations and opportunities. In addition, we provided a brief description of the project sponsored by Polpharma Scientific Foundation, which aimed to evaluate potentials of local delivery of biodegradable nanospheres loaded with everolimus, which could be used to reduce restenosis rate after stent implantation.

Acute stent recoil and optimal balloon inflation strategy: an experimental study using real-time optical coherence tomography.

Our aim was to evaluate stent expansion and acute recoil at deployment and post-dilatation, and the impact of post-dilatation strategies on final stent dimensions. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) was performed on eight bare metal platforms of drug-eluting stents (3.0 mm diameter, n=6 for each) during and after balloon inflation in a silicone mock vessel. After nominal-pressure deployment, a single long (30 sec) vs. multiple short (10 sec x3) post-dilatations were performed using a non-compliant balloon (3.25 mm, 20 atm). Stent areas during deployment with original delivery systems were smaller in stainless steel stents than in cobalt-chromium and platinum-chromium stents (p<0.001), whereas subsequent acute recoil was comparable among the three materials. At post-dilatation, acute recoil was greater in cobalt-chromium and platinum-chromium stents than in stainless steel stents (p<0.001), resulting in smaller final stent areas in cobalt-chromium and platinum-chromium stents than in stainless steel stents (p<0.001). In comparison between conventional and latest-generation cobalt-chromium stents, stent areas were not significantly different after both deployment and post-dilatation. With multiple short post-dilatations, acute recoil was significantly improved from first to third short inflation (p<0.001), achieving larger final area than a single long inflation, despite stent materials/designs (p<0.001). Real-time OCT revealed significant acute recoil in all stent types. Both stent materials/designs and post-dilatation strategies showed a significant impact on final stent expansion.

Monetary exit and fiscal spillovers

The aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis has seen two types of monetary policy concerns. Some economists (e.g. Paul Krugman) worry primarily about possible deflation caused by a secular stagnation. In contrast, others (e.g. John Taylor) worry about excessively high inflation caused by quantitative easing and monetization of fiscal imbalances. The paper shows that these two seemingly contradictory threats may in fact be mutually consistent. Our analysis demonstrates that some countries may experience both – deflation in the short term and high inflation in the long term – whereas some countries are likely to experience neither. This is done in a game theoretic framework with dynamic leadership; stochastic revisions of policy actions. Such framework enables us to examine strategic monetary–fiscal interactions, the policies' institutional features, as well as uncertainty about business cycle conditions (as present during the 2010–2015 period). Our empirical section then quantifies indices of monetary and fiscal leadership for high-income countries to put them in the Monetary-dominance, Fiscal-dominance and Regime-switching regions derived in the theoretic analysis, and thus assess their deflationary/inflationary prospects. It is shown that such undesirable departures from price stability are much more likely in the United States and Japan than in Australia or New Zealand.

ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC POLICY VARIABLES THAT MODELED AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION IN NIGERIA

Evidence has shown that, sustainable agricultural intensification amidst stable economic environment offers workable options to eradicate poverty and hunger. This study examined the trend in agricultural intensification and determined the influence of some macroeconomic variables from 1960 to 2014 in Nigeria. The result showed that, all series were integrated of order one. The exponential trend analysis of agricultural intensification revealed an average annual negative growth rate of 1.60%, 2.10% and 0.10% in Herfindahl, Ogive and Entropy intensification indexes respectively. The long-run and short-run elasticity of the agricultural intensification were determined using the techniques of co-integration and error correction models. The estimation of the error correction model supported the long run stability of agricultural intensification in Nigeria. The empirical results revealed that, in the long run; inflation, industrial output, external reserves, per capita income, and energy consumption were negative drivers of agricultural intensification; whereas crude oil prices, lending rate of Bank, foreign capital in agriculture and non-oil import works in opposite direction. However, in the short run, inflation, external reserves and industrial output retards agricultural intensification; while lending rate of Banks and crude oil price were stimulants. A ten-year out sampled forecast of agricultural intensification showed a steady declined. The empirical results were further substantiated by the variance decomposition and impulse response analyses. It is recommended that, the Nigeria government should re-aligned its macroeconomic policies to achieve stability in inflation rate, external reserves, industrial production, electricity consumption, agricultural credit institution to achieve sustainable agricultural intensification in the long run.

Roles of Macroeconomic Variables on Agricultural Diversification in Nigeria

The study examined the trend in agricultural diversification index from 1960 to 2014 in Nigeria. It also determined the influence of some macroeconomic variables on the estimated index. Augmented Dickey-Fuller-GLS unit root test showed that all series were integrated of order one. The long-run and short-run elasticity of the agricultural diversification index with respect to the specified macro-economic variables were determined using the techniques of co-integration and error correction models. The trend analysis revealed that, the country has witnessed appreciable level of agricultural diversification with 0.3%, 0.5% and 2.3% annual exponential growth rate in entropy diversification index, Herfindhal diversification index and Ogive diversification index respectively. The estimation of the error correction model supported the long run stability of agricultural diversification index in Nigeria. The empirical results revealed that, in the long run inflation, viable manufacturing sector, credit to agricultural sector, external reserves, per capita income, unemployment and energy consumption are positive drivers of agricultural diversification; whereas, crude oil prices, lending capacity of commercial Bank, foreign direct investment in agricultural sector and non-oil import are long run negative drivers of agricultural diversification in Nigeria. However, in the short run, inflation, external reserves and non-oil imports stimulated agricultural diversification; while energy consumption and manufacturing capability retard agricultural diversification in the country. A ten-year forecast was made on the estimated diversification indices and the result showed a progressive growth. The empirical results were further substantiated by the variance decomposition and impulse response analysis of the dependent variable with respect to changes in the explanatory variables. Results obtained were in line with the previous results. It is recommended that, the Nigeria government should re-aligned its macroeconomic policies to achieve stability in inflation rate, external reserves, industrial production, electricity consumption, agricultural credit institution if sustainable agricultural diversification is to be achieved in the long run.

G104 Inflation pressures and times during the resuscitation of prematurely born infants

AimWe have previously demonstrated that using the UK recommended inflation pressures (20/5 cmH2O) for the first five inflations, expiratory tidal volumes (TVe) rarely exceeded the anatomical dead space (1) and...

Pressures and Timing of Intermittent Pneumatic Compression Devices for Efficient Tissue Fluid and Lymph Flow in Limbs with Lymphedema

Pneumatic compression of tissues with lymph stasis is, aside from the manual massage, a commonly used therapeutic modality in limb lymphedema. A number of pneumatic devices have been constructed. There is lack of reports of comparative studies determining inflation pressure levels, inflation/deflation cycle times, and total pumping times. We tried to answer the question how high compression pressure and how long compression timing should be applied to the limb soft tissues to reach tissue fluid (TF) head pressure above 30 mmHg, necessary to initiate proximal flow. TF pressures were measured subcutaneously during intermittent pneumatic compression in the lymphedematous limbs stage II to IV. Pressures of 50, 80, and 120 mmHg and timing 5, 20, and 50 sec were applied. a) the TF head pressures were lower than those in inflated chambers, b) inflation time of 5 and 20 sec was not long enough to generate TF head pressures above 30 mmHg, even if the compression pressures were as high as 120 mmHg, c) the 50 sec timing allowed to reach head pressures above 30 mmHg; however, they remained always lower than in the compression chamber, d) TF head pressures differed at various levels of the limb depending on the soft tissue mass, e) deflation of the inflated whole sleeve for 5 and 20 sec was followed by high end pressures, whereas that of 50 sec brought about pressure drop to 0, facilitating refilling with TF of the distal parts of the massaged limb. Our observations point to the necessity of applying high pressures and compression times over 50 sec, to generate effective TF pressures and provide enough time for creating TF flow. Short inflation times generate TF pressures as in one-chamber devices that preclude its effectiveness compared to the multi-chamber devices.

Non-Gaussianity in the inflating curvaton

Inflating curvaton can create curvature perturbation when the curvaton density is slowly varying. Using the delta-N formalism, we discuss the evolution of the curvature perturbation during curvaton inflation and find analytic formulation of the non-Gaussianity parameter. We first consider the inflating curvaton with sufficiently long inflationary expansion. Then we compare the result with short curvaton inflation.

Imperfect Information and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata

We investigate the updating behavior of individual consumers regarding their short and long-run inflation expectations. Utilizing the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer’s rotating panel microstructure, we can identify whether individuals adjust their inflation expectations over a period of six months. We find evidence that the updating frequency has been underestimated. Furthermore, looking at the possible determinants of an update we find support for imperfect information models. Moreover, individual expectations are found to be more accurate after an update and forecast accuracy is affected by inflation volatility measures and news regarding inflation. Finally, the updating frequency is found to significantly move spreads in bond markets.

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1999 : Q1 - 2010 : Q4 DENGAN PENDEKATAN ERROR CORECTION MODELS (ECM)

Money has a very important role in the modern economy. Money demand function is often used by central banks in various state as a tool to determine the target growth of money or the money supply. Make up money supply to encourage excessive price increases that exceed the level expected in the long run can undermine economic growth. Conversely, if the increase in the money supply to low the debility economic will happen. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the demand for money in Indonesia in the short and long run. This research used data coherent time or time series period of 1999:Q1 to 2010 : Q4. The data used are quarterly. Model used the tool of error correction model of econometrical analysis. This model can explain the behavior of short and long run. The results showed (1) the inflation variable in the short and long run has positive and significant impact on the demand for money in Indonesia. (2) the interest rate variable in the short run has no significant negative impact and long run has negative and significant impact on the demand for money in Indonesia. (3) the GDP variable in short run is not significant and long run has positive and significant impact on the demand for money in Indonesia. (4) Error Corection Term marked positive and significant indicate valid models and can used to estimate the demand for money in Indonesia. Based on the results of this study concluded that significant inflation variable in influencing the demand for money in Indonesia, both in the short and long run. The interest rate and GDP variable in short run is not significant, while in long run both are significant impact on demand for money in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia as the monetary authority in Indonesia expect maintain monetary stability through a guard against inflation, as the research results in both the short and long run inflation significant influence the demand for money in Indonesia.

International Evidence on Inflation Expectations During Sustained Off-Target Inflation Episodes

The high level of UK inflation in recent years raises the possibility that inflation expectations may drift upwards, making the period of above-target inflation last for longer. This article presents some evidence on inflation expectations during Sustained Off-Target Inflation (SOTI) episodes in other inflation-targeting countries and outlines some of the key trends. The evidence suggests that short and medium-term inflation expectations have tended to drift in the direction of the deviation of inflation from target. But generally the movements in inflation expectations were more gradual than movements in inflation itself and expectations returned to their previous level once inflation returned to target.

Effect of balloon inflation time on expansion of sirolimus-eluting stent

There is little information about the relationship between balloon inflation time and sirolimus-eluting stent (SES) expansion. In this randomized intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) study, 92 de novo lesions in native coronary arteries that underwent SES implantation were enrolled. Sirolimus-eluting stent was implanted using an inflation pressure of 14 atm. Stent balloon was gradually inflated until 14 atm in 10 s. In the short inflation group, it was deflated immediately after an image of the balloon inflated at 14 atm was taken. Stent balloon inflation lasted 60 s in the long inflation group. Intravascular ultrasound was then performed. The long balloon inflation resulted in a larger stent cross-sectional area (4.9 +/- 1.6 mm(2) vs 4.3 +/- 1.4 mm(2), P < 0.05) and expansion (71% +/- 13% vs 60% +/- 13%, P < 0.001) compared to the short balloon inflation, although stent expansion was relatively low in both groups. The relatively longer balloon inflation time using an inflation pressure of 14 atm results in better SES expansion. However, in the majority of lesions, adequate stent expansion is not achieved even using long balloon inflation, if it is inflated at 14 atm.

Macroeconomic Surprises and the Inflation Compensation Curve in the Euro Area

Using daily data stemming from inflation-indexed markets, we analyse the effects of numerous macroeconomic surprises on inflation compensation data - the sum of inflation expectations, risk and liquidity premia - in the euro area between 2 January 2004 and 31 December 2007. Our results suggest that when gauging short and medium-term inflation compensations, market operators are sensitive to surprises related to real activity and prices. Interestingly, oil futures prices tend to impact at some point on the short- and medium-ends of the inflation compensation curve. Notwithstanding, long-term inflation compensations remain generally unresponsive to macroeconomic surprises, attesting the high ECB's credibility.

Two scales of inflation at Lastarria-Cordon del Azufre volcanic complex, central Andes, revealed from ASAR-ENVISAT interferometric data

ASAR-ENVISAT Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data collected over the Lastarria-Cordon del Azufre complex (Chile–Argentina) between March 2003 and May 2005 show the persistence of the large wavelength ground inflation revealed by Pritchard and Simons in 2002 from the analysis of ERS InSAR data [Nature 418 (2002) 167–170]. After reducing the tropospheric contribution in the interferograms using a combination of data network adjustment and analysis of MODIS images, we produced an accurate interferometric time series showing a 2 yr long temporal evolution of the ground displacements patterns. Two distinct inflating signals are detected. The main signal covers an elliptical area with a 45 km NNE–SSW major axis and a 37 km minor axis. It is correlated with a regional topographic dome. We estimated its maximum inflation rate to ∼ 2.5 cm yr − 1 . We inverted the InSAR data for a range of source geometries (spherical, prolate ellipsoids, penny-shaped cracks). The inferred source parameters for 2003–2005 period are consistent with an over-pressured reservoir at shallow to intermediate crustal depths (7–15 km), with an average volumetric rate of inflation of about 14 × 10 6 m 3 yr − 1 . In addition to this main signal a new feature highlighted by the ASAR data is short wavelength inflation (6 km wide) at the location of Lastarria volcano on the northern margin of the large wavelength signal. We explain this short wavelength signal by a spherical over-pressured source lying 1000 m below the summit of Lastarria volcano. We estimate the average volumetric rate of inflation during the observation period to be ∼ 35 × 10 3 m 3 yr − 1 . It is remarkable that both volumetric variations for the large and small inflations exhibit the same evolution during the 2003–2005 period, suggesting that both processes could be related. On the basis of the inversion results and of arguments provided by field evidences and a morpho-structural analysis of the Digital Elevation Model of the area, we propose that the deep source have a magmatic origin while the shallow source is most likely related to hydrothermal fluids. In our interpretation, the on-going deformation processes observed at Lastarria-Cordon del Azufre volcanic complex could represent an evolving pre-caldera silicic system. Further field geological and geophysical investigations will be required to confirm these hypotheses and refine the proposed model, mostly based on satellite observations.

An Estimate of the Inflation Risk Premium Using a Three-Factor Affine Term Structure Model

This paper decomposes nominal Treasury yields into expected real rates, expected inflation rates, real risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums by separately calibrating a three-factor affine term structure model to the nominal Treasury and TIPS yield curves. Although this particular application seems to produce expected real short rates and inflation rates that are somewhat static, there are theoretical advantages to calibrating the model to nominal and real yields separately. Moreover, the estimates correlate positively with back-of-the-envelope measures of the inflation risk premium. With respect to the current environment, monetary policy uncertainty does not seem to have contributed to the apparent increase in the inflation risk premium since the beginning of 2006. Also, in purely nominal terms, the increase in term premiums thus far this year might be just as much a global as a domestic phenomenon, given that nominal term premiums have also increased in Germany and the United Kingdom.

An Estimate of the Inflation Risk Premium Using a Three-Factor Affine Term Structure Model

This paper decomposes nominal Treasury yields into expected real rates, expected inflation rates, real risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums by separately calibrating a three-factor affine term structure model to the nominal Treasury and TIPS yield curves. Although this particular application seems to produce expected real short rates and inflation rates that are somewhat static, there are theoretical advantages to calibrating the model to nominal and real yields separately. Moreover, the estimates correlate positively with back-of-the-envelope measures of the inflation risk premium. With respect to the current environment, monetary policy uncertainty does not seem to have contributed to the apparent increase in the inflation risk premium since the beginning of 2006. Also, in purely nominal terms, the increase in term premiums thus far this year might be just as much a global as a domestic phenomenon, given that nominal term premiums have also increased in Germany and the United Kingdom.

Left Main Coronary Revascularization at the Crossroads

Percutaneous revascularization of left main coronary artery (LMCA) disease has remained controversial for more than 25 years, since LMCA balloon angioplasty was first performed by Andreas Gruentzig in 1978. Summarizing his experience, Gruentzig concluded, “We have not been too successful with dilating left main stems…although the procedure is relatively simple, the potential complications are both sudden and serious.”1 Following the evolution of percutaneous catheter-based therapies to include both bare metal stent and, more recently, drug-eluting stent (DES) platforms in conjunction with advances in periprocedural and postprocedural adjunctive pharmacotherapies, interest in percutaneous LMCA revascularization, particularly unprotected left main, has been renewed. Although studies performed with bare metal stents demonstrated a low rate of in-hospital mortality, the incidence of late coronary restenosis remained high.2–6 In the Unprotected Left Main Trunk Intervention Multi-Center Assessment (ULTIMA) registry, which enrolled 279 patients with unprotected LMCA disease who had percutaneous coronary revascularization (69% bare metal stent), mortality at a 1-year follow-up was proportional to clinical risk stratification (40% in high-risk versus 3.5% in low-risk patient cohorts), and repeated revascularization was required in 34% of cases.6 The experience gleaned from these studies continued to support the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline recommendations that in reasonable surgical candidates with LMCA disease, coronary bypass surgery is the preferred therapeutic option.7 After the introduction of DES, several small clinical series demonstrated the feasibility and short-term safety of LMCA stenting, while late clinical/angiographic outcomes appeared favorable as compared with historical (nonrandomized) patient cohorts treated with bare metal stents.3,8–11 The cumulative experience with DES treatment for LMCA demonstrated an apparent marked reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events, including target vessel revascularization, during 6 to 12 months of follow-up as compared with the precedent experience after bare metal stent deployment. Article p 2542 The clinical …

Prognostic significance of ischemia modified albumin after percutaneous coronary intervention

Ischemia modified albumin (IMA) is a new biochemical marker of ischemia. IMA levels rise in patients who develop ischemia during percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). It is unclear whether IMA elevations correlate with PCI variables. The possible prognostic value of post-PCI IMA elevation has not yet to be studied. Methods We studied 60 patients (mean age 61 years; 51 male) who underwent successful elective single-vessel PCI for the management of stable angina pectoris. IMA levels were measured and compared with PCI variables and target lesion revascularization rate. The median post-PCI follow up is 46 months (CI 44.6 to 47.7). Results We found that the only variable related to post-PCI IMA levels was periprocedural dissection of target vessel (147.6 vs. 141.1 kU/l, p = 0.035). No correlation between high and low balloon inflation pressure (143.6 vs. 141.6 kU/l, p = 0.64), short and long inflation pressure (141.5 vs. 143.6 kU/l, p = 0.17), with and without stent placement (143.7 vs. 141.3 kU/l, p = 0.93) was found. IMA level more then 130 kU/l was associated with higher frequency of target lesion revascularization at nearly 4-years follow-up ( p = 0.026). Conclusion Post-PCI IMA elevation is associated with higher target lesion revascularization.