Interest Rate Shocks Research Articles

The dynamic response of the rand real exchange rate to fundamental shocks

Purpose – The authors analyse the relationship between the South African real exchange rate and economic fundamentals – demand, supply and nominal shocks. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use a time-varying parameter VAR to study the coherence, conditional volatility and impulse responses of the exchange rate over specific periods and policy regimes. The model is identified using sign-restrictions that allow for some neutrality of impulse responses over contemporaneous and long horizons. Findings – The results suggest that the importance of fundamental shocks on the exchange rate is time dependent. Hence there is a loss in information when using standard linear models that average out effects over time. The response of the exchange rate to demand and supply shocks have weakened over the 1994-2010 period. Research limitations/implications – The period following financial crisis has strengthened the relationship between supply and demand shocks to the exchange rate, but has weakened the relationship between interest rate shocks and the exchange rate response. Practical implications – This paper provides deeper insight as to how the exchange rate responds to fundamental shocks. This should help monetary policy understand the consequences of interest rate decisions on the exchange rate and the indirect effect of inflation on the exchange rate. Originality/value – This application is new to the South African literature. The authors propose that the use of interest rates is limited in affecting the value of the rand exchange rate over particular periods. Isolating fundamental shocks to exchange rates over time helps policy makers make clearer and more informed decisions.

Impact of Interest Rate Shocks on the Asset Structure of Private Households in Germany with Particular Reference to Insurance

This paper investigates the portfolio structure of private households in Germany from 1994 to 2014. We focus on the question of how sensitively private households react to a shock in the interest rate level. We use a vector autoregressive model and analyze the corresponding impulse-response functions. The data set is provided by Deutsche Bundesbank. Our hypothesis that the asset class Insurance reacts less sensitively to changes in the interest rate level than other asset classes cannot be confirmed. In general, the results show almost no reactions in the portfolio proportions after an interest rate shock. From our results, it appears that private households in Germany clearly do not integrate interest rate information into their portfolio allocation decisions.

The Bank Lending Channel in a Dual Banking System: Evidence from Malaysia

This paper examines the bank lending channel of monetary transmission in Malaysia, a country with a dual banking system including both Islamic and conventional banks, over the period 1994:01-2015:06. A two-regime threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) model is estimated to take into account possible nonlinearities in the relationship between bank lending and monetary policy under different economic conditions. The results indicate that Islamic credit is less responsive than conventional credit to interest rate shocks in both the high and low growth regimes. By contrast, the relative importance of Islamic credit shocks in driving output growth is much greater in the low growth regime, their effects being positive. These findings can be interpreted in terms of the distinctive features of Islamic banks.

Sector Heterogeneity and Credit Market Imperfections in Emerging Markets

This paper shows that the impact of country interest rate shocks on emerging markets’ economic activities can be associated with credit market imperfections affecting principally non-tradable activities. I present novel evidence documenting that tradable and non-tradable activities respond asymmetrically to changes in credit conditions in emerging markets. I show that country interest rate shocks are amplified through non-tradable activities, and that local credit substantially explains their output growth. Unlike the non-tradable sector, tradable activities are not significantly affected by changes in local credit conditions. To rationalize these findings, I introduce a small open economy model with heterogeneous access to international borrowing that accounts for the asymmetric response of tradable and non-tradable activities.

Anomaly in Stock-Bond Correlations: The Role of Monetary Policy

The paper estimates constant conditional correlation (CCC) GARCH models to test whether the dramatic changes in stock-bond market correlations can be explained by monetary policy variables such as OIS interest rate shocks or volatility regimes. We find that both specifications are empirically relevant: Correlations decrease after positive monetary shocks (decreasing rates) as well as in times with large central bank activity (high rate volatility regimes).

Financial openness, the financial accelerator and sectoral dynamics

This paper studies the role of financial openness and the financial accelerator in the sectoral dynamics generated in a small open economy following capital inflow. The results show that where the financial accelerator exists, capital inflow in response to a foreign interest rate shock ultimately results in intersectoral resource transfer that is favorable to the nontradable sector under different monetary policies; the magnitude of the expansion in the nontradable sector being greater under a higher degree of financial openness. The study also finds that, in comparison to CPI inflation targeting, nontradable inflation targeting is better at mitigating resource transfers toward production of nontradables, and at reducing and stabilizing both nontradable inflation and CPI inflation. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the financial accelerator mechanism matters for the effectiveness of monetary policy in addressing dynamics pertinent to the Dutch disease phenomenon, such that CPI inflation targeting is only effective in such a scenario where the financial accelerator is non-existent, and that nontradable inflation targeting operates more effectively in the absence of the financial accelerator as well.

Money and output causality: A structural approach

Using a new methodology, this paper revisits the question of whether money causes output and inflation. The causality between money and output is studied conditional on estimated DSGE models which allow for consideration of various channels where money and output interact. The causality tests are also conditioned on the structural shocks affecting both money and output. The results show that causality from money to either inflation or output at various horizons and for various specifications can be influenced by the preference, technological or interest rate shocks. It further shows that causality between money and output is not dependent on money demand shocks, though when money demand shocks are absent, there is no causality between money and inflation. Further robustness tests indicate that the results are also influenced by the filtering method used, although most of them are robust to the alternative filtering methods used before estimating the models.

Macroeconomic Resilience of Emerging Economies to Global Financial Conditions

This paper explores the macroeconomic resilience of emerging market economies (EMEs) to global financial conditions over time. For this purpose, we employ a time-varying parameter VAR model to analyze the non-constant effects of global financial shocks on EME aggregate variables. Based on the analysis of data from Brazil, Korea, Mexico, South Africa, Taiwan, and Thailand, the main findings are: (1) While the global financial risk shock has a negative impact on EMEs, we did not find evidence that the US interest rate shock is countercyclical. Thus, we find that the global risk shock is a more important risk factor than the US interest rate shock to EMEs. (2) The adverse impact of the global risk shock on EMEs has been noticeably mitigated in the majority of sample countries.

Money, Interest Rates and Prices in Ireland, 1933–2012

In this paper we assemble an annual data set on broad and narrow money, prices, real economic activity and interest rates in Ireland from a variety of sources for the period 1933–2012. We discuss in detail how the data set is constructed and what assumptions we have made to do so. Furthermore, we estimate a simple SVAR model to provide some empirical evidence on the behaviour of these time series. Money supply shocks appear to be the most important drivers of both money and prices. Interest rate shocks, which capture monetary policy, play an important role driving output and, of course, interest rates. The real GDP shocks, which raise prices, seem of less importance.

Analysing the Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks on Public Debt in Zimbabwe

This paper analyses the impact of macroeconomic shocks on public debt in Zimbabwe. Understanding the impact of macroeconomic shocks on public debt is necessary as this allows debt managers to focus on a public debt structure which limits the potential of debt from deviating from its long-run steady state. The study applied the Bayesian Vector Auto regression (BVAR) model to simulate the impact of macroeconomic shocks on public debt. The results show that Zimbabwe’s public debt is more vulnerable to interest rate, exchange rate, economic growth and primary balance shocks. Together these shocks account for about 61 per cent of forecast error variation in the debt to GDP ratio. From this analysis, the major policy implication is the need for government to pay particular attention to automatic debt dynamics. There is also a need to maintain the primary balance at manageable levels as well as instituting growth enhancing policies to ensure long-term sustainability of public debt. The need for appropriate selection of the currency composition of public debt is also necessary to mitigate the risk of unexpected increases in public debt from adverse external sector developments.

Wealth Inequality and Financial Development: Revisiting the Symmetry Breaking Mechanism

In an overlapping generations model with financial frictions and the fixed investment size requirement, Matsuyama (2004, Econometrica) shows that, in the absence of integrated financial markets, the world economy has a unique steady state, which is symmetric and stable in the sense that inherently identical countries converge to the same income level in the long run, regardless of their initial income level; financial globalization may break this symmetric steady state and lead to cross-country income polarization. He calls this phenomenon symmetry breaking and points out that financial underdevelopment is one of the necessary conditions. We revisit this result by introducing wealth inequality and the minimum investment requirement into his framework. Increasing wealth inequality strictly reduces the possibility of symmetry breaking; if wealth inequality exceeds a threshold value, symmetry breaking does not arise at all, regardless of the level of financial development. Thus, wealth inequality is an equally important factor as financial development in determining the possibility of symmetry breaking. We also address some practical issues in this framework, e.g., the conditions of financial integration, the domestic financial crisis and capital controls, and the world interest rate shocks and income volatility.

Money, Interest Rates and Prices in Ireland, 1933-2012

In this paper we assemble an annual data set on broad and narrow money, prices, real economic activity and interest rates in Ireland from a variety of sources for the period 1933-2012. We discuss in detail how the data set is constructed and what assumptions we have made to do so. Furthermore, we estimate a simple SVAR model to provide some empirical evidence on the behaviour of these time series. Money supply shocks appear to be the most important drivers of both money and prices. Interest rate shocks, which capture monetary policy, play an important role driving output and, of course, interest rates. The GDP shocks, which raise prices, seem of less importance.

New Zealand regional house prices and macroeconomic shocks

A two-part SVAR model for New Zealand (NZ) identifies impacts of common macroeconomic shocks on national and regional city house prices. Results suggest that NZ regional housing market asymmetries exist in terms of responses to, as well as the relative importance of, shocks to key macroeconomic variables. Interest rate and GDP shocks in particular have significant effects on national and city house prices some 5 years later, although responses to the range of identical shocks vary in magnitude and relative importance across cities. This implies that national policies enacted to dampen/stimulate economic activity will impact differently on regional housing markets.

What is the Value of 'Collective' in Collective DC?

This paper measures how financial shocks - equity market, interest rate or inflation shocks - affect different generations of participants in Dutch collective pension schemes. We show that an individualized scheme, by using a life cycle investment strategy, can largely replicate the allocation of traded risks across generations of a collective pension scheme. Collective schemes can shift some financial risk to generations that will participate in the future, whereas individual accounts cannot. In the current institutional setting this shift of traded risk in collective contracts to future generations is limited. Collective pension schemes are able to reallocate non-traded risks among the participants to obtain a more efficient distribution of risk across generations. In schemes with individual accounts, risk sharing is limited to risks traded on financial markets.

Understanding the Influence of Interest Rate Liberalization on Economic Structure and Monetary Policy

In this paper, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with price stickiness is constructed to analyze quantitatively the effect of interest rate liberalization on economic structure and monetary policy. Using parameter calibration and Bayes estimation, we analyze the impulse responses and numerical simulation of the external shocks of technology shocks and monetary policy shock. The empirical results find the following conclusion: Firstly, the interest rate liberalization is conducive to economic restructuring as the investment ratio and capital growth is suppressed and the household and government consumption ratio is promoted. Secondly, the interest rate liberalization can lower economic fluctuation, and enhance the defense ability against external shocks such as technological shocks and monetary policy shocks. Moreover, the interest rate liberalization is help to dredge the monetary policy transmission channels as the interest rate shocks on the real economy is gradually increased.

Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns

This paper investigates whether changes in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by the interest rate respond to variations in asset returns. We distinguish between low-volatility (bull) and high-volatility (bear) markets and employ a TVP-VAR approach with stochastic volatility to assess the evolution of the interest rate in relation to housing and stock returns. We measure the relative importance of housing and stock returns in the movements of the interest rate and their possible feedback effects over both time and horizon and across regimes. Empirical results from annual data on the US spanning the period from 1890 to 2012 indicate that the interest rate responds more strongly to asset returns during low-volatility (bull) regimes. While the bigger interest-rate effect of stock-return shocks occurs prior to the 1970s, the interest rate appears to respond more strongly to housing-return than stock return shocks after the 1970s. Similarly, a higher interest rate exerts a larger effect on both asset categories during low-volatility (bull) markets. Particularly, larger negative responses of housing return to interest-rate shocks occur after the 1980s, corresponding to the low-volatility (bull) regime in the housing market. Conversely, the stock-return effect of interest-rate shocks dominates before the 1980s, where stock-market booms achieved more importance.

Macroeconomic shocks and fluctuations in African economies

We estimate a monetary DSGE model to examine the role of macroeconomic shocks in generating fluctuations in ten African countries. The model is estimated with the Bayesian technique using twelve macroeconomic variables. The findings indicate that both the internal and external shocks significantly influence output fluctuations in African economies. Over a four quarter horizon, internal shocks are dominant and over eight to sixteen quarter horizons, external shocks are dominant. Among the external shocks, external debt, exchange rate, foreign interest rate and commodity price shocks account for a large part of output variations in African economies. Money supply and productivity shocks are the most important internal shocks contributing to output fluctuations in African countries.

Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Foreign Currency Loans

In a number of countries a substantial proportion of mortgage loans is denominated in foreign currency. In this paper we demonstrate how their presence affects economic policy and agents' welfare. To this end we construct a small open economy model with housing loans denominated in domestic or foreign currency. The model is calibrated for Poland - a typical small open economy with a large share of foreign currency loans (FCL). We show that FCLs negatively affect the transmission of monetary policy. In contrast, their impact on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy is much weaker but positive. We also demonstrate that FCLs increase welfare when domestic interest rate shocks prevail and decrease it when risk premium (exchange rate) shocks dominate. Under a realistic calibration of the stochastic environment FCLs are welfare reducing. Finally, we show that regulatory policies that correct the share of FCLs may cause a short term slowdown.

US monetary policy and sectoral commodity prices

Using a Structural VAR (SVAR) model, we examine the effects of the monetary policy of the United States on sectoral commodity prices (including the non-fuel commodity prices, food prices, beverage prices, prices of agricultural raw materials, prices of metals and prices of fuel (energy) commodities) and macroeconomic activity. The empirical evidence suggests that a U.S. monetary contraction leads to an immediate rise in the broad commodity price index, which possibly reflects an aggregation bias, greater expected inflation and speculation, high production costs or some overshooting due to overreactions. Then, the response erodes after six quarters as the positive interest rate shock vanishes and higher interest rates and liquidity drainage take traction. Despite this, the aggregate price response masks the existence of significant heterogeneity in the price responses of the different types of commodity sectors. More specifically, a positive interest rate shock leads to: (i) an initial pop in the price returns of the non-fuel commodities, which later reverses path and becomes negative (as in the case of the prices of agricultural raw materials); (ii) a positive and persistent rise in the volatile food prices; (iii) a fall in the beverage prices; and (iv) a persistent reduction in the prices of metals and the prices of energy prices. Our results also remain globally intact with respect to alternative specifications and identification schemes as well as to unconventional monetary policy effects. Similar results are also found when commodity futures prices are used. We conclude that policymakers should recognize the source of sector inflation before embarking on contractionary monetary policy. The design of core inflation targeting is also preferable to headline inflation targeting.

Does money matter in the euro area? Evidence from a new Divisia index

We create a euro-area Divisia-money dataset and estimate theoretically correct responses to money, user cost and interest rate shocks using structural vector-autoregressions. Our findings suggest that money matters for output, prices and interest rates, while the European Central Bank can influence monetary developments.