COVID-19 Shock Research Articles

Deciphering volatility spillovers amidst crises: analyzing the interplay among commodities, equities and socially responsible investments during the COVID-19 shock and financial turbulence

PurposeThis study aims to elucidate the volatility spillovers among commodities, equities and socially responsible investments, underpinning their dynamic correlations during the economic instability wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated financial crises.Design/methodology/approachThis research quantitatively analyzes volatility transmission across various financial assets from January 2005 to October 2020 by employing the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover index. The methodology incorporates a temporal examination to capture the evolution of volatility dependencies pre and post the emergence of COVID-19.FindingsThe findings indicate substantial volatility spillovers among the assets in question, aligning with the current financialisation of commodity markets and a rise in financial market integration. These spillovers also show variation over time. Notably, the interconnectedness among the assets intensifies during periods of stress. For instance, the total spillover index significantly surpassed 80% toward the end of January 2020, following the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. Furthermore, the results imply that financial markets appear to be segmented.Practical implicationsThe findings afford investors a more comprehensive insight into both the character and scale of the interdependencies across a broad array of financial markets. Indeed, grasping the extent to which financial markets are segmented or integrated during times of stress and stability is crucial for investors. Such understanding is key to more accurately evaluating risks, diversifying investment portfolios and devising more efficient hedging strategies.Originality/valueThis study contributes to financial literature by offering a comprehensive investigation into the spillover effects across a diverse set of asset classes during an unprecedented global health crisis, filling a gap in existing research on market behavior against the backdrop of a pandemic-induced financial crisis.

COVID-19 shock on supply chains: evidence from a developing country

COVID-19 shock on supply chains: evidence from a developing country

Lactate Profile Assessment-A Good Predictor of Prognosis in Patients with COVID-19 and Septic Shock Requiring Continuous Renal Therapy.

Lactate is a useful prognostic marker, as its level increases in hypoxic tissue and/or during accelerated aerobic glycolysis due to excessive beta-adrenergic stimulation and decreased lactate clearance. The Surviving Sepsis Campaign Bundle 2018 Update suggests premeasurement of lactate within 2-4 h so that physicians perform, assist, administer, and introduce lactate-guided resuscitation to reduce mortality due to sepsis. A total of 108 patients with septic shock who underwent continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) for acute kidney injury were enrolled in this observational study. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected, and patients were divided into two groups: survivors and non-survivors. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that lactate levels at 24 h after initiation of CRRT treatment, but not lactate levels at intensive care unit (ICU) admission, were associated with mortality. Lactate clearance was associated with lower mortality among the survivors (OR = 0.140) at 6 h after ICU admission and late mortality (OR = 0.260) after 24 h. The area under the ROC curves for mortality was 0.682 for initial lactate; 0.797 for lactate at 24 h; and 0.816 for lactate clearance at 24 h. Our result reinforces that the determination of lactate dynamics represents a good predictor for mortality, and serial lactate measurements may be more useful prognostic markers than initial lactate in patients with septic shock.

Shock, response, and resilience of COVID-19 on Kangaroo Mother Care service utilisation in public health facilities in Bangladesh: An interrupted time series analysis

Shock, response, and resilience of COVID-19 on Kangaroo Mother Care service utilisation in public health facilities in Bangladesh: An interrupted time series analysis

#1818 Association of combined systemic inflammatory indices with the severity and outcome of tunnelled hemodialysis catheter-related bacteremia

Abstract Background and Aims Systemic inflammation plays a critical role in sepsis. Multiple inflammatory parameters have been used in clinical practice to diagnose and predict outcomes. More recently, systemic inflammatory indices derived from the complete blood count (CBC) such as the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) have shown a diagnostic and prognostic value in several critical infectious diseases such as pneumonia, endocarditis, osteomyelitis, COVID-19, severe sepsis and septic shock. The aim of our study was to evaluate NLR, PLR, LMR and RDW in tunnelled hemodialysis catheter-related bacteremia and investigate their predictive value regarding in-hospital mortality and 30-day survival. Method We performed a retrospective study that included patients with tunnelled hemodialysis catheters in our dialysis unit between January 2003 and March 2023 that presented with hemodialysis catheter-related bacteremia. Demographic data, comorbidities, dialysis vintage and catheter vintage and type were registered. The baseline systemic inflammatory indices (NLR, PLR, LMR and RDW) were calculated from the CBC at presentation of bacteremia. Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality and mortality after 30 days. Secondary outcomes were complications during follow-up such as development of septic shock, ICU admission, endocarditis or septic embolic complications, need for catheter removal and the time elapsed till blood cultures were negative. Results The study included 58 patients with tunnelled hemodialysis catheter-related bacteremia. Mean age was 63.8 ± 17 years, and median catheter vintage was 122 days (IQR 84-387). The main causative organism was Staphylococcus aureus in 29 (50%) of the cases, followed by Serratia marcescens (12.1%) and Staphylococcus epidermidis (6.9%). Four patients (6.9%) presented with septic shock, 7 patients (12.1%) developed endocarditis and/or septic emboli, and 47 patients (81%) required removal of the catheter. In-hospital mortality was 6.9% and 30-day mortality was 12.1%. There was a positive correlation between NLR, PLR, LMR and RDW. NLR and RDW were significantly higher in Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia. In the regression analysis, higher tertile of NLR and RDW were associated with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia. A NLR cutoff of >7 was predictive of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (AUC 0.75 [95% CI 0.61-0.89], p = 0.005) with an 86% sensitivity and 60% specificity. There were no differences in these inflammatory indices between survivors and non-survivors during hospital admission. However, RDW was significantly higher in patients who did not survive after 30 days (17.8% [15.7-19.4] vs 15.9% [15-17.1], p = 0.043). An RDW of >16.9% was determined as the predictive cutoff value of 30-day mortality (AUC 0.73, 95% CI 0.54-0.92, p = 0.049) with a sensitivity of 71.4% and specificity of 70%. Conclusion In our cohort of patients with tunnelled hemodialysis catheter-related bacteremia, higher RDW was associated with a poor 30-day survival and a NLR >7 was predictive of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia. These results suggest that NLR may be useful as a diagnostic index of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia and RDW can be used to predict 30-day mortality in hemodialysis catheter-related bacteremia.

IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE FINANCIAL STABILITY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN KENYA

<p>Countries worldwide were gripped by the COVID-19 pandemic for the greater part of 2020 and 2021. COVID-19 spread to virtually all nations around the globe, causing a contraction of the global economy, and Kenya was no exception. Governments worldwide deployed social distancing, lockdowns, and curfews, which resulted in employee lay-off, business closure, and suppressed demand for commodities and services, eventually trickling down to commercial banks. The Kenyan banking sector experienced deterioration in asset quality which has been worsening since 2014 when it stood at 5.6 percent, reaching an all-time high of 14.5 percent in 2020 whereas Return on Assets which has also been declining since 2014, stood at 4.46 percent dropped to a record low of 2.07 percent in 2020 during the pandemic. This study, therefore, sought to determine how the financial stability of Kenyan commercial banks has been impacted by the COVID-19 shock. The study sought to specifically establish how both Z-score and capital adequacy of Kenyan commercial banks were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Financial intermediation theory, Capital buffer theory, and Financial Instability Hypothesis anchored the study. The research design embraced was non-experimental, while the financial stability proxy was Z-score. The study’s target population was 19 commercial banks in Kenya between the years 2015 and 2022, which had complete data on all the study variables. Annual bank-level data was obtained from Kenya`s Central Bank`s annual supervision reports from 2015-2022. Event study methodology was used while collecting data whereby, the event window was 2020-2021, the period before the event (COVID-19) was 2015-2019, and the period after the event was 2022. The study espoused a panel vector autoregression model in data analysis where the impulse response functions were generated. The researcher discovered that the COVID-19 pandemic adversely impacted Z-score and capital adequacy. Based on the research findings, the Government of Kenya ought to institute non-disruptive pandemic control measures such as proper hygiene and wearing of masks as opposed to quarantines and lockdowns, which are detrimental to commercial banks' operations and other businesses, ultimately leading to a decline in income for commercial banks. Moreover, since capital acts as a shock absorber for banks, Kenyan commercial banks should strive to achieve and maintain the minimum capital adequacy ratios set by the Central Bank of Kenya. This will ensure that commercial banks in Kenya cushion themselves against economic shocks generated by pandemics such as COVID-19.</p><p> </p><p><strong>JEL:</strong> E44, E58, G01, G21, G28, G32</p><p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/edu/0227/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

Export diversification dimensions and performance: Analysis and industrial policy insights from Italian territories over Covid-19 shocks

Export diversification has been long discussed as a strategy to shield from external shocks and stabilize export levels. At the same time, it can proxy for the presence of specific productive and geoeconomic capabilities. This paper considers geographical and sectoral diversification of industrial exports proposing HHI-based indexes that consider different levels of aggregation. Specifically, we explore how these metrics are associated with each other, and how this association is moderated by different levels of export intensity and stability. Overall, they both explain well variations in export intensity over the COVID-19 asymmetric shocks. Further, exposure toward EU markets shows a positive association with stability. These findings and the heterogeneity lens used are then interpreted stressing the relevance of place-based policies in guiding export diversification strategies in the face of global economic challenges.

Maternal Mental Health Responses to COVID-19 Shocks and Uncertainty in Rural Pakistan

In this paper, we investigate the association between a battery of mental health measures and experienced morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19, worry about disease risk, experienced economic shocks, and economic uncertainty about the future. We find that an environment of heightened economic uncertainty might impact mental health above and beyond the effects of realized shocks. A 1 standard deviation increase in economic uncertainty is associated with a 0.223 standard deviation decrease in mental health. This association is strongest among women who were depressed at baseline. We also find that current uncertainty is associated with future economic shocks.

Investors’ Psych and Stock Return in Nigeria during the Covid-19 Pandemic Era

Investors’ attitudes were severely altered by the Covid-19 crisis, which had an intolerable effect on volatile returns in Nigerian stock market and other stock markets worldwide. Psychological trauma was experienced by stock investors due to the inability to foresee returns following the worldwide shock of Covid-19 and the subsequent drop in stock investments brought on by the unpredictability of macroeconomic behavior. This study analyzed the link effect of investor psyche on stock returns in Nigeria between March 2019 and December 2022. For this research, Sentiment Index (SMI) model was employed for the connection between investors psyche and returns on the Nigerian stock market. It was found that, investors psyche during Covid-19 pandemic negatively affected stock returns, resulting from negative concerns about their survival and financial security than the stock market, thus triggered sharp decline in stock investment. Thus, study concluded that Covid-19 outbreak impacted stock returns negatively. The research recommends that the Nigerian stock exchange commission should increase disclosure of market information, which is related to the magnitude and potentials of stock returns and degree of volatility at all times. The concerned volatility and potentials during the Covid-19 era were also influential to enhance investors’ confidence.

Converging on Europe? The European Union in mediatised debates during the COVID-19 and Ukraine shocks

ABSTRACT European integration is at risk of becoming stuck in a ‘politics’ trap: Diverging national EU politicisation inhibits joint agreements which fuels public debates further. What can break this vicious circle? We argue that large and symmetrical exogenous shocks may reduce the divergence of national public EU debates to then study how the COVID-19 and Ukraine crises have altered mediatised EU portrayals across 753,435 articles from 228 major online news sites in the 27 EU member states during the 2018–2023 period. We find that the Covid and especially the Ukraine shock led to higher convergence in the public salience of the EU and the issue areas associated with this while partially also muting domestic party presence. However, we note that these effects appear short-lived. Large exogenous shocks thus do not lift the politicisation constraints on European integration permanently but offer at least windows of opportunity that may facilitate intergovernmental compromise.

Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks

PurposeWe study five exogenous shocks: climate, violence, price hikes, spoilage and the COVID-19 lockdown. We analyze the association between these shocks and trader characteristics, reflecting trader vulnerability.Design/methodology/approachUsing primary survey data on 1,100 Nigerian maize traders for 2021 (controlling for shocks in 2017), we use probit models to estimate the probabilities of experiencing climate, violence, disease and cost shocks associated with trader characteristics (gender, size and region) and to estimate the probability of vulnerability (experiencing severe impacts).FindingsTraders are prone to experiencing more than one shock, which increases the intensity of the shocks. Price shocks are often accompanied by violence, climate and COVID-19 shocks. The poorer northern region is disproportionately affected by shocks. Northern traders experience more price shocks while Southern traders are more affected by violence shocks given their dependence on long supply chains from the north for their maize. Female traders are more likely to experience violent events than men who tend to be more exposed to climate shocks.Research limitations/implicationsThe data only permit analysis of the general degree of impact of a shock rather than quantifying lost income.Originality/valueThis paper is the first to analyze the incidence of multiple shocks on grain traders and the unequal distribution of negative impacts. It is the first such in Africa based on a large sample of grain traders from a primary survey.

Role of community economic development based on mosque management in COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia

COVID-19 shocks are over the whole world, which disrupted almost all sectors of the economy. Many major financial institutions show a downfall and going into economic recession. All around the world, ordinary people are affected the most in this dire situation due to raised unemployment. Mosques can be considered a vital social institution in Indonesia and tend to cultivate prosperity and elevate economic activities. This research exposed the hidden potential of Mosques in Indonesia in economic development by describing the essential asset stored in them. It’s instrumental for the community to empower the asset because the management of mosques will give multi-effective players in terms of community engagement.

Digital transformation and tourism listed firm performance in COVID-19 shock

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic shock, the tourism industry has the simultaneous task of improving its quality and efficiency. Investigating if the digital transformation of tourist firms can break the hurdle and promote tourism sector optimization in the digital era is critical. Based on data from a sample of Chinese-listed tourism companies from 2013 to 2022, this study finds that digital transformation can improve firms' financial and non-financial performance, particularly non-financial performance, when confronted with the COVID-19 pandemic shock. This influence operates mainly through the effects of business diversification, including willingness and extent, while it is more pronounced for willingness.

Perturbation of Residential Preferences by COVID-19 Shocks in the Greater Toronto Area

This research investigates the immediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on residential preferences in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, using a stated preference (SP) survey dataset. The study examines changes in relocation preferences and trends in the GTA after the Ontario government lifted the initial lockdown. The obtained choice data is then modeled using a mixed cross-nested logit model to find substitution patterns across regions and dwelling types, as well as explore residents’ preferences for different dwelling characteristics and the accessibility of their residence, including factors such as telecommuting options. The results reveal that the pandemic caused short-term residential dissonance, with residents tending to want to move to lower-density areas to relocate to their preferred dwelling type, emphasizing telecommuting as a key factor influencing residential relocation preferences. Housing qualities were prioritized over accessibility. The study also found heterogeneous behavior among GTA residents with regard to telecommuting as a factor in residential relocation. The study’s findings are relevant for planners and policymakers in anticipating the potential long-term pandemic-induced home relocation decisions and their impact on future household travel behavior, particularly with regard to telecommuting and accessibility.

Has the COVID-19 pandemic shock transmitted to the u.s. stock market: Evidence using bootstrap (A)symmetric fourier granger causality test in quantiles

This study investigates whether the COVID-19 shocks transmitted to the U.S. stock market were symmetric or asymmetric using bootstrap quantile asymmetric Granger causality tests with or without the Fourier functions. The results indicate that while low quantiles of stock returns do not respond to COVID-19 shocks, the latter is a powerful predictor of high quantiles of stock returns. Besides, only positive COVID-19 shocks are potent predictors of high quantiles of stock market return. In contrast, adverse shocks adequately predict low quantiles of stock return. These findings have important policy implications for investors and policymakers who implement strategies for market stabilization.

COVID-19 and its impact on the profit of mango value chain actors.

The unprecedented impact of the pandemic on both activities and profit of actors draws out the various areas of the value chain that need to be strengthened to ensure resilience in the face of global shock. This study fills the gap by assessing the extent at which COVID-19 impacted the profit of mango value chain actors in southern Ghana. It also analyzed the governance structure and the existing linkages in the dissemination of market information in relation to the profit of the actors. A two-year panel survey on 240 respondents was conducted in 2020 through a multi-stage sampling technique in Greater Accra, Eastern and Volta regions of Ghana. Net Farm Income, Social Network Analysis and Difference-in-Difference models were used in analyzing the data. Findings revealed that mango processors have more bargaining power and make the most profit while producers receive more information than other actors. Farmer-based organizations were found to be the prominent node and influential in the dissemination of market information within the value chain. The outbreak of COVID-19 negatively impacted the profit of mango producers and distributors; however, processors had a positive impact on their profit. The study therefore demonstrated that producers and distributors were vulnerable to the effect of the COVID-19 shock, whilst processors were robust to the shocks. Thus, reformed policies by all stakeholders for emergency preparedness should be targeted especially at those vulnerable actors in the chain. Additionally, FBOs, retailers and other key stakeholders should be considered in policy development to enhance market information dissemination.

The Performance of Islamic Stocks and Conventional Stocks During the COVID-19 Shock: Evidence from Indonesian Stock Market

The Performance of Islamic Stocks and Conventional Stocks During the COVID-19 Shock: Evidence from Indonesian Stock Market

Stock Market Persistence in MENA and OIC Countries

ABSTRACT This research paper analyzes how the pandemic caused by the coronavirus has affected eight MENA and three OIC stock market indices using advanced methodologies based on fractional integration. With this methodology we try to measure the persistence of the financial data in order to understand the long-term market dynamics of these two regions and to identify whether the COVID-19 shock has caused structural changes in the time series. Moreover, we want to identify if the shocks in the series have had permanent or transitory effects. The time period examined starts from pre-pandemic times at 2003, and first goes to the end of 2019; then, we also consider the COVID-19 pandemic (with data ending at December 2021) and then extend the analysis onwards to include the war between Russia and Ukraine (data ending at February 2023). The results indicate that there have not been significant long-lasting impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russia-Ukraine war on the degree of persistence in the series when using monthly data; however, as far as daily and weekly data are concerned the shocks have had some effect on the degree of persistence with daily data in the cases of Egypt, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, and with weekly data for Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Malaysia, Morocco and Turkey.

Do bank ties influence stock repurchases in a bank-based financial system during financial distress? A pre-registered report

This pre-registered study seeks to investigate the effects of bank ties on corporate repurchase decisions and stock price reactions to buyback announcements. We make causal inferences to provide more insights into bank ties for stock repurchase decisions during extreme financial distress. We focus on the COVID-19 pandemic as an exogenous shock and identify whether the COVID-19 shock affected the bank-ties effect of the motives of stock repurchase decisions in a bank-based financial system. Our study sheds light on the motives behind stock repurchase decisions and the role of banks in corporate cash distribution to shareholders. Furthermore, our study contributes to understanding how extreme financial distress, such as COVID-19, affects the motive for stock repurchase in a bank-based financial system.

EXPLORING COVID-19 AND SOCIAL CONFLICT IN AFRICA: NIGERIA AS A CASE STUDY


 There are many dimensions to conflict in Africa. It depends on the nature of the underlying demography, heterogeneity, and historical context of the state’s social and political problems. The impact of the coronavirus has greatly affected the socioeconomic structure and governance system in Africa, leading to social conflicts. Moreover, the social conflict led to deaths, job losses, and human capital reductions, resulting in economic catastrophes in South Africa, Egypt, and Ethiopia, among others. In Nigeria, the government was unable to cushion the impact of Covid-19, frustrated by the issues of poverty and inequality, wherein the masses were pounded with hunger and insecurity; a corrupt policing system precipitated the social unrest in 2020. Nigeria’s social issues, coupled with the shock of Covid-19, cumulated into protest actions, looting, and police brutality. The government’s inadequate response to the political crisis and state of unrest greatly influenced the public’s belief and outlook on social concerns. The research postulates the following question: how did the social conflict in Africa and Nigeria become overheated during Covid-19? The paper adopts a qualitative method that explores existing literature and media sources on social conflicts and Covid-19 in Africa and Nigeria. The study anchors its theoretical framework on the fragile state theory. The paper concludes that Nigeria’s weakened socioeconomic structure met with the shock of the horror of Covid-19, which sparked social conflict in the country.