Effects Of Shocks Research Articles

Effect of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on housing prices in Canada

This paper investigates the relative importance and effect of conventional and unconventional Canadian monetary policy surprises on housing prices. Using a credible approach to identify structural monetary policy shocks in Canada and a comprehensive Bayesian VAR model to analyze their effects on financial and macroeconomic variables, we find that both conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing shocks have a significant and persistent effect on housing prices in Canada. However, the inflationary effect of a quantitative easing shock is more pronounced than that of an easing target monetary policy surprise. Specifically, the peak effect of a 25-basis point expansionary conventional monetary policy shock is a 2.30% increase in real housing prices while a comparable quantitative easing surprise leads to a peak of 4.56% increase in real housing prices. We conclude that expansionary monetary policy in various forms has had significant inflationary effects on Canadian housing prices. But quantitative easing surprises stand out as the most prominent contributory factor to the escalating Canadian real estate price. Quantitative easing impact consistently outweighs the effects of forward guidance and conventional monetary policy shocks.

Heterogeneity in the effects of uncertainty shocks on labor market dynamics and extensive vs. intensive margins of adjustment

The real option value theory posits that non-convex adjustment costs pertaining to a firm's input are central to comprehending the consequences of increased uncertainty. This paper leverages the diversity observed at both sectoral and country levels in the degree of irreversibility associated with hiring and firing, a critical factor generating what is commonly referred to as “wait-and-see” behavior in times of heightened uncertainty. Our empirical findings reveal two key insights. First, in alignment with the concept of second-moment shocks, uncertainty shocks predominantly influence the labor market through the extensive margin rather than the intensive margin. Second, the effects of uncertainty shocks exhibit pronounced heterogeneity across countries and industries, and the adverse employment effects (extensive margin) are amplified in a country with strict employment protection or in an industry characterized by a higher natural layoff rate, consistent with the real option theory.

COVID-19 and its impact on the profit of mango value chain actors.

The unprecedented impact of the pandemic on both activities and profit of actors draws out the various areas of the value chain that need to be strengthened to ensure resilience in the face of global shock. This study fills the gap by assessing the extent at which COVID-19 impacted the profit of mango value chain actors in southern Ghana. It also analyzed the governance structure and the existing linkages in the dissemination of market information in relation to the profit of the actors. A two-year panel survey on 240 respondents was conducted in 2020 through a multi-stage sampling technique in Greater Accra, Eastern and Volta regions of Ghana. Net Farm Income, Social Network Analysis and Difference-in-Difference models were used in analyzing the data. Findings revealed that mango processors have more bargaining power and make the most profit while producers receive more information than other actors. Farmer-based organizations were found to be the prominent node and influential in the dissemination of market information within the value chain. The outbreak of COVID-19 negatively impacted the profit of mango producers and distributors; however, processors had a positive impact on their profit. The study therefore demonstrated that producers and distributors were vulnerable to the effect of the COVID-19 shock, whilst processors were robust to the shocks. Thus, reformed policies by all stakeholders for emergency preparedness should be targeted especially at those vulnerable actors in the chain. Additionally, FBOs, retailers and other key stakeholders should be considered in policy development to enhance market information dissemination.

Cryogenic Thermal Shock Effects on Optical Properties of Quantum Emitters in Hexagonal Boron Nitride.

Solid-state quantum emitters are vital building blocks for quantum information science and quantum technology. Among various types of solid-state emitters discovered to date, color centers in hexagonal boron nitride have garnered tremendous traction in recent years, thanks to their environmental robustness, high brightness, and room-temperature operation. Most recently, these quantum emitters have been employed for satellite-based quantum key distribution. One of the most important requirements to qualify these emitters for space-based applications is their optical stability against cryogenic thermal shock. Such an understanding has, however, remained elusive to date. Here, we report on the effects caused by such thermal shock that induces random, irreversible changes in the spectral characteristics of the quantum emitters. By employing a combination of structural characterizations and density functional calculations, we attribute the observed changes to lattice strain caused by cryogenic temperature shock. Our study sheds light on the stability of the quantum emitters under extreme conditions─similar to those countered in outer space.

Deuterium retention in cyclic transient heat loaded tungsten with increasing cycle numbers

Surface damage and microscopic defect evolution of tungsten (W) armor under transient heat loads are key factors for fuel retention in fusion reactors. In this work, experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of cyclic thermal shocks on deuterium (D) retention and surface blistering in W. Thermal shock experiments were conducted on recrystallized W using an electron beam with a power density of 0.15 GW m−2 across 100–1500 cycles, followed by D plasma exposure with high-fluence (∼1 × 1026 D m−2). The results demonstrate that samples subjected to 500 and 1500 cycles exhibit a significant presence of sub-grains within 90 μm. Notably, the inhibition of blistering induced by thermal shock leads to a substantial reduction in D retention (5.45 × 1019 D m−2) at lower cycle numbers (100 cycles) compared to the reference sample (2.35 × 1020 D m−2) which was only exposed to D plasma. When cycle numbers increase to 500 and 1500, D retention reaches 1.98 × 1020 D m−2 and 4.56 × 1020 D m−2, respectively. Based on the tritium migration analysis program, we propose that total D retention is a consequence of the competition between defects reduced by thermal shock-induced suppression of blistering and defects generated by plastic deformation induced by thermal stress. D retention initially decreases with the increase in cycle numbers, followed by a subsequent rise, with the inflection point slightly higher than 500 cycles. Additionally, due to the extensive scope of thermal stress, an escalated exposure period will result in substantial D captured by heat-induced defects, consequently intensifying the D retention. Whether there exists an upper limit to D retention induced by the increasing thermal shock cycles necessitates further experimental analysis. Nonetheless, it is evident that thermal shock significantly contributes to D retention within a profoundly deep bulk region under high cycles.

Household resilience and mitigating strategies to conflicts and shocks: evidence from household data in Uganda and Malawi

ABSTRACT We examine household food security resilience to conflict and shock in Uganda and Malawi using data from the Household Living Standards Measurement Survey. We collect data on resilience components such as education, asset ownership, dwelling characteristics, water access, and sanitation facilities. Principal component analysis is used to generate factor weights for constructing the Resilience Capacity Index, which measures overall household resilience capacity and individual resilience components. The resilience capacity is then used in regression models to assess its mitigating effects on food security during conflicts and shocks. Our results indicate that resilience capacity significantly reduces the adverse effects of conflict and shock on food security. In Malawi, household head education contributes most to food security, while in Uganda, water access is the most critical component. In Malawi, water access resilience diminishes the impact of conflict, sanitation resilience reduces the impacts of flooding, and dwelling characteristics lessen the effects of drought, although the effect size is small. In Uganda, asset ownership resilience mitigates the impacts of drought, while sanitation resilience reduces the adverse effects of conflict. These findings highlight the importance of different resilience components in enhancing food security under various adverse conditions.

Effects of Shock and Vibration on Product Quality during Last-Mile Transportation of Ebola Vaccine under Refrigerated Conditions1.

Analyzing vaccine stability under different storage and transportation conditions is critical to ensure that effectiveness and safety are not affected by distribution. In a simulation of the last mile in the supply chain, we found that shock and vibration had no effect on Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo Ebola vaccine regimen quality under refrigerated conditions.

ICT and Economic Growth Nexus in Saudi Arabia, Controlling Human Capital in the COVID-19 Era: A NARDL Exercise

ICT use has significantly increased over the years across the world, including Saudi Arabia. This study links ICT with economic growth (EG) in Saudi Arabia, controlling human capital (HC) and COVID-19. We employ time-series annual data from 1990 to 2021, a nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach, and a cointegrating regression analysis to look at the asymmetric effects of ICT diffusion on EG. The NARDL assessment establishes a cointegrating relationship among variables; the effect of ICT negative shocks on EG is favorable and relatively larger. In contrast, the positive shocks of ICT generate a negative and somewhat less impact on EG with an overall positive impact. The findings imply that the ICT, during its expansion stage, cannot contribute positively to EG, perhaps because of a lack of required skilled human capital to administer and utilize the ICT instruments. The positive and insignificant coefficient of HC supports this conclusion. Despite Saudi Arabia’s generous efforts, physical and human capital have no significant impact on EG. COVID-19 has hindered the usual economic activities in the Kingdom and impaired EG. The cointegrating regressions authenticate the robustness of the NARDL findings. The outcomes suggest policymakers should appraise the existing ICT infrastructure and initiate raising the capability of HC through practical training and education to benefit from ICT diffusion and positively impact EG.

(855) - Total Artificial Heart as Bridge to Transplant in a Patient with Cardiogenic Shock, Biventricular Thrombi, and Multisystem Thromboembolic Events

(855) - Total Artificial Heart as Bridge to Transplant in a Patient with Cardiogenic Shock, Biventricular Thrombi, and Multisystem Thromboembolic Events

Understanding the factors that shape vaccination ecosystem resilience: a qualitative assessment of international expert experiences and perspectives

Introduction‘Shocks’ or external stressors to vaccination programmes can lead to decreased vaccination coverage rates. The capacity of vaccination ecosystems to effectively respond and adapt to shocks demonstrates programme resilience. This...

A high temperature engine materials test facility.

Gas turbine engines subject materials to extreme conditions. Their high temperature materials and co-developed coatings must survive combustion gas temperatures currently approaching 1800 °C, large thermal gradients, severe thermal shock, and static and fatigue inducing applied stresses, all the while operating in highly reactive, high-pressure, high-speed combustion gas flows containing significant partial pressures of water vapor, oxygen, and other reactive species for many tens of thousands of hours. We describe the design and development of a test facility for the study of materials under individual and combinations of test parameters similar to those experienced within legacy and future engines. A hydraulic load frame capable of applying static or cyclic tension-compression stresses up to 400 MPa to flat-dog bone-shaped test specimens is integrated within an environmental test chamber capable of sustaining gas pressures from 0.1 to 1.2 MPa (1-12 atm). An adjustable0.1-2 kW power CO2 laser whose 10.6 µm wavelength radiation is strongly absorbed by ceramic coating materials is used to heat sample surfaces to temperatures of 1800 °C and above, while rear surface air jet cooling establishes through-thickness thermal gradients. Rapid laser heating in conjunction with transiently applied front and/or rear-side air cooling is used to create hot or cold thermal shock effects. This is accompanied by the impingement of a high pressure (up to 1.3 MPa) reactive gas jet upon the sample with speeds up to 300m/s by preheating dry air, mixing it with steam to the desired humidity, heating to 850 °C, and then expanding it through a converging nozzle. Thermal imaging pyrometers measure specimen front and back surface temperature fields, while environmental test chamber view ports permit digital image correlation and strain mapping.

Traumatic perinatal events and educational needs of labor and delivery room nurses in Korea: a cross-sectional survey.

The present study investigated experiences of traumatic perinatal events, the provision of related education, and educational needs of nurses working in the labor and delivery room (LDR). Nurses working in the LDRs of six institutions and two nurse portal sites were invited to participate in the survey, delivered on paper or online. The data were collected from October 1 to November 25, 2022. Data from 129 nurses were analyzed using frequency, the chi-square test, the Fisher exact test, the t-test, and analysis of variance. Virtually all participants (98.6%) reported having experienced at least one traumatic perinatal event (dystocia, postpartum hemorrhage, neonatal congenital anomalies, severe maternal or neonatal injury, stillbirth, and maternal or neonatal death) while working in the LDR. The most shocking traumatic perinatal event experienced was the maternal or neonatal death (40.3%), but 24.8% of participants did not recall ever receiving education on the topic. About 63% of participants experienced traumatic perinatal events within a year of working in the LDR. The average score for education needs regarding traumatic perinatal events was 3.67±0.37 out of 4, and participants preferred simulation education as the most effective educational method. Since most of the participants had experienced various traumatic perinatal events in the early stages of working in the LDR and expressed a high level of need for education on traumatic perinatal events, it is necessary to provide more effective stimulation education programs in the early period of work in the LDR.

Digital loans and buy now pay later from LendTech versus bank loans in the era of ‘black swans’: Complementarity in the area of consumer financing

Research background: People who take non-banking loans are primarily perceived as excluded from accessing bank services. The growth of e-commerce and the increasing digitalisation of customer interactions with banks was particularly accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic (the first ‘black swan’). These processes have also influenced the rapid growth of the LendTech (LT) sector within FinTech with its digital loans and buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services. The war in Ukraine (the second ‘black swan’) has led to an energy crisis, increased inflation, interest rates and credit costs, and reduced credit accessibility. In this context, the following research questions are addressed: Are the LT and banking sectors complementary or substitutive in the area of consumer financing? Does complementarity apply to all customer segments and loan amounts? How does the extent of complementarity or substitutability of the LT sector depend on, and to what extent do changes in the regulatory and macroeconomic environment affect, the interaction between the banking and LT sectors? Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to identify trends in the LT sector within FinTech in the context of assessing the scale and determinants of current and future complementarity of the non-bank sector and the banking sector in the area of consumer credit in time of black swans. An additional purpose of the article is to estimate revenues from the basic operating activities of companies from the on-line channel. Methods: The research process was multi-stage and the research procedure was structured. Due to the lack of a uniform source of data on LT products and services, the study used many data sources — data from the Credit Information Bureau, a primary nationwide survey on LT users a primary survey of people representing LT's managerial staff. The selection of LTs was carried out according to the concept of the monetary sampling unit. The Horvitz-Thompson estimator with Sen‐Yates‐Grundy variance form was used to estimate net operating income for LT from the online channel in 2021. Findings & value added: The LT companies surveyed state that black swans (the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine) and the current macroeconomic situation have not significantly affected demand for non-banking loans. The reduction in the opportunities for the LT sector as a result of anti-usury regulations will only lead to a shift in consumer demand to the pawnshop sector and the shadow economy, which will be detrimental to consumers. Complementarity between LT and the banking sector is revealed especially in crisis situations, thus limiting the effects of market shock (limited supply of loans offered by banks). In periods of stabilisation, a rather clear division of preferences is noticeable – in the case of seniors and loans for higher amounts, banks dominate, while in the case of lower amounts and in younger age groups, non-bank institutions are more popular. The mechanism by which shrinking banking services are replaced by LT in short-term crises confirms the importance of LT in balancing the Consumer Finance market in the face of unstable periods. From a medium- and long-term perspective, it should be noted that inflation and rising interest rates will increase the scale of credit exclusion in commercial banks, shifting part of the demand to the non-bank sector. These phenomena have an international dimension. Similar observations were made already in 2012 by the CFPB in the USA and the British FTA, when analysing the consumer finance market immediately after the subprime crisis, emphasising the effects of limiting access to bank consumer loans and the resulting growth of the LT market (Gębski, 2013).

Time-varying effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets and economic activity: evidence from the US and Europe

This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on CDS, stock returns, and economic activity in the US and the five European countries that have been most affected: the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. The sample period covers the period from 11 March 2020 to 19 February 2021. In the empirical analysis, first, we estimate benchmark linear VAR models and then, given the evidence of parameter instability, TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility, which are ideally suited to capturing the changing dynamics in both financial markets and the real economy. The linear VAR responses of CDS to the number of COVID-19 cases are positive and statistically significant, whilst those of electricity consumption are insignificant and those of stock returns vary across countries in terms of their sign and significance. The results from the TVP-VAR analysis indicate that the effects of shocks on the system variables was more pronounced during the initial stages of the pandemic and then decreased in the following months. Specifically, there was a positive impact of the number of COVID-19 cases on CDS and a negative one on stock returns and economic activity, the latter two being interlinked.

The effect of actual and expected income shocks on mental wellbeing: Evidence from three East Asian countries during COVID-19

This paper evaluates the effects of economic shocks to current and expected income reduction on mental wellbeing. We use individual-level data from three East Asian countries; China, Japan, and South Korea, during the early phases of the pandemic when the COVID-induced economic shocks were severe. The findings reveal significant causal effects from current and expected income reduction on different aspects of mental health deterioration, including anxiety, trouble sleeping, boredom, and loneliness. Interestingly, we found that expectations of future income loss have a significantly larger effect on people's mental wellbeing compared to current falls in income. This has significant implications for the design of policies to support income during pandemics.

State-owned enterprises as countercyclical instruments: Quasi-experimental evidence from the infrastructure sector

This paper examines the effects of a negative macroeconomic shock on the financial performance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in infrastructure. The main aim of the paper is to explore whether SOEs serve as countercyclical instruments or whether they end up generating fiscal costs during a downturn, perhaps amplifying negative shocks. The paper introduces a new measure of fiscal injections that includes subsidies, equityrecapitalizations, and loans from the government, other SOEs, or state-owned financial institutions. The empirical setup uses a quasi-experimental setting that exploits the differential effects of a drastic fall in oil prices (in 2014–15) for SOEs in countries that experience a negative aggregate demand drop as a consequence of this shock versus similar firms in countries that do not suffer a downturn from the shock. The results—based on a balanced sample using coarsened exact matching and a differences-in-differences estimation—show that SOEs in treatment countries received increases in fiscal injections as a percent of average assets of 3.5 percent the year after the shock, equivalent to a significant recapitalization. These fiscal injectionstake the form of equity injections and loans from the government and state-owned financial enterprises. The results also show that capital expenditure as a percent of average assets in fully owned infrastructure SOEs decreased by 3.5 percentage points the year after the negative shock, equivalent to a 40 percent decline relative to its average level. In sum, this paper presents evidence that shows that SOEs do not serve as countercyclical tools and, in fact, may amplify negative shocks by requiring fiscal injections for SOEs while also lowering their capital expenditures.

China’s Monetary Policy Impacts on Money and Stock Markets

This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets, assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables. Monetary policy adjustments are swiftly observed in money markets and gradually extend to the stock market. The study examined the effects of monetary policy shocks using three primary instruments: interest rate policy, reserve requirement ratio, and open market operations. Monthly data from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed using vector error correction (VEC) models. The findings suggest a likely presence of long-lasting and stable relationships among monetary policy, the money market, and stock markets. This research holds practical implications for Chinese policymakers, particularly in managing the challenges associated with fluctuation risks linked to high foreign exchange reserves, aiming to achieve autonomy in monetary policy and formulate effective monetary strategies to stimulate economic growth.

Balancing the scales: How housing supply regulation shapes household wealth inequality in China

Given its significant implications for the economy and society, this paper investigates the impact of housing supply regulation on household wealth inequality. Utilizing data from the China Household Finance Survey and land transaction records spanning from 2013 to 2019, we employ recentered influence function regression and two-way fixed effects models to analyze the effect of unexpected housing supply shocks on the wealth gap among households. Our findings reveal that positive unexpected housing supply shocks are crucial in reducing household wealth inequality. This reduction is attributed to the heterogeneous impacts of housing supply regulation on different wealth groups. By deregulating the housing supply, the upward trend in housing prices has slowed, which in turn makes homeownership more accessible and facilitates wealth accumulation for households that fall within the 20 % and 80 % wealth quantiles. Conversely, deregulation has a negative impact on property values for households in the 80–100 % wealth quantile, thus mitigating their overall wealth growth. Overall, this study emphasizes the significant role of housing supply regulation in shaping wealth inequality in China.

Max Share Identification of Multiple Shocks: An Application to Uncertainty and Financial Conditions

We generalize the Max Share approach to allow for simultaneous identification of a multiplicity of shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregression. Our machinery therefore overcomes the well-known drawbacks that individually identified shocks (i) tend to be correlated to each other or (ii) can be separated under orthogonalizations with weak economic ground. We show that identification corresponds to solving a nontrivial optimization problem. We provide conditions for non-emptiness of solutions and point-identification, and Bayesian algorithms for estimation and inference. We use the approach to study the effects of uncertainty and financial shocks, allowing for the possibility that the former responds contemporaneously to other shocks, distinguishing macroeconomic from financial uncertainty and credit supply shocks. Using U.S. data we find that financial uncertainty mimics a demand shock, while the interpretation of macro uncertainty is more mixed. Furthermore, variation in uncertainty partially represents the endogenous response of uncertainty to other shocks.

Influence of professional sports activities on bone mineral density (<i>literature review</i>)

Introduction. The positive effect of physical activity on the state of bone has been proven by many researchers. Professional sports activity is a model of the constant impact of physical activity on the human body, acting as the most powerful mechanism for activating and mobilizing the functional reserves of an athlete, which, against the background of a progressive increase in the volume, intensity and duration of exposure, shows an increase in the incidence of injuries and stress fractures, one of the leading causes of which is a decrease in bone mineral density (BMD) up to the development of osteoporosis. The risk factors for the development of the pathology of the musculoskeletal system, which have a direct impact on the formation of the BMD, in elite sports include the volume and intensity of training loads, the stereotype of the main competitive exercise, the daily balance of energy intake.The aim is to study is to analyze modern scientific publications on the impact of professional sports activities on bone mineral density.Materials and methods. The review is based on publications from the PubMed, Google Scholar, Cyberleninka, eLIBRARY databases. Preference was given to articles published in refereed sources over the past 10 years.Results. The specificity of the main competitive exercise determines the presence of asymmetry in the distribution of the BMD in athletes, in addition, the level of BMD is higher in the leading limb compared to the opposite. Increasing the qualifications, experience and age of an athlete shows a positive impact on the performance of the BMD, with the exception of certain specializations. A different effect of sports with a high osteogenic effect of shock and weight load on the state of the BMD was noted compared to the general population. Power athletes, combat and game sports athletes have higher levels BMD compared to representatives of cycling, swimming, rowing, triathlon and long-distance running, characterized by the limitation of gravitational (shock) load or a large amount of low-intensity training exposure. Lower BMD were noted in athletes in sports specializations with weight categories, aesthetic and cyclic sports, where the problem of a relative energy deficiency in sport, which negatively affects bone metabolism.Conclusions. In athletes, the volume and intensity of training loads, the stereotype of performing the main competitive exercise, the daily balance of energy intake have a direct impact on the formation of the BMD with the allocation of risk groups for the pathology of the musculoskeletal system in elite sports.