Shifts In Supply Research Articles

Increased transferrin saturation is associated with subgingival microbiota dysbiosis and severe periodontitis in genetic haemochromatosis

Genetic haemochromatosis (GH) is responsible for iron overload. Increased transferrin saturation (TSAT) has been associated with severe periodontitis, which is a chronic inflammatory disease affecting tissues surrounding the teeth and is related to dysbiosis of the subgingival microbiota. Because iron is essential for bacterial pathogens, alterations in iron homeostasis can drive dysbiosis. To unravel the relationships between serum iron biomarkers and the subgingival microbiota, we analysed samples from 66 GH patients. The co-occurrence analysis of the microbiota showed very different patterns according to TSAT. Healthy and periopathogenic bacterial clusters were found to compete in patients with normal TSAT (≤45%). However, significant correlations were found between TSAT and the proportions of Porphyromonas and Treponema, which are two genera that contain well-known periopathogenic species. In patients with high TSAT, the bacterial clusters exhibited no mutual exclusion. Increased iron bioavailability worsened periodontitis and promoted periopathogenic bacteria, such as Treponema. The radical changes in host-bacteria relationships and bacterial co-occurrence patterns according to the TSAT level also suggested a shift in the bacterial iron supply from transferrin to NTBI when TSAT exceeded 45%. Taken together, these results indicate that iron bioavailability in biological fluids is part of the equilibrium between the host and its microbiota.

An empirical procedure to evaluate monetary management under exogenous changes in the money supply

ABSTRACTThis article proposes an empirical procedure to evaluate central banks’ monetary management in a presence of exogenous changes in the money supply. Monetary shocks deviate the market interest rate from the target, and the monetary authority decides its optimal intervention in the money market, bearing in mind the benefits and costs of re-establishing its target interest rate. According to monetary management theory, typically a central bank will allow for variation in the interest rate within a range around the target interest rate, thereby intervening in the money market when the interest rate trends toward a point outside that range. In this context, we develop an empirical strategy to analyse central bank’s reactions to exogenous money changes by making a statistical comparison of the actual and the estimated intraday shift in the money supply. We also employ our method to test the reactions of the Brazilian Central Bank to liquidity shifts caused by changes in the Treasury Single Account (TSA) balance. Using different metrics of analysis, the applications of our procedure confirms the predictions of the optimal monetary management theory.

PO-304 Caffeine Supplementation Altered Metabolic Profiles in High-intensity Interval Training

Objective Caffeine supplementation is a commonly used nutritional practice. Exogenous metabolites from caffeine, such as paraxanthine, theobromine and theophylline, are eventually excreted through urine. Yet, it is less clear whether caffeine would induce endogenous metabolites altered during exercise. Urine metabolomics is non-invasive method, which mainly focus on alterations of endogenous metabolic profiles caused by diseases, drugs, and lifestyle and nutritional interventions as well. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to examine the effects of supplementation with caffeine in a well-designed high intensity interval training (HITT). We identified significant alterations in urinary metabolite levels and revealed key metabolic pathways involved in caffeine supplementation in HITT.
 Methods We performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo- controlled crossover study. Twelve women basketball players (age:19.12 ± 2.64 years, mass: 174.73 ± 5.18 cm, height: 62 ± 5.09 kg, with 8.50±2.11 years training period for basketball) were randomized to placebo (PLA) or caffeine (CAF) with dosage of 3mg on the basis of body weight (kg) 45min before a field HITT test. The test was repeated after three days when players were crossed over to the alternate test. The test began with a 30 min warmup, followed by a high intensity intermittent exercise trail with incremental load for about 25min, and a cool-down. Players are familiar with the test program which included 55 sets of dribble shuttle-run, pass, shoot, and rebound with basketball with a distance of 1540m (55 × 28m), the interval between two sets was gradually reduced. Performance (completed time), heart rates immediate (HR0min) and 1 min (HR1min) after test, blood lactate (BLa), proteinuria and ratings of perceived exertion (RPE) were collected during each protocol. Urine samples were obtained before and 1 h after of the test. 1H-NMR spectra (Bruker AVANCE III HD 600MHz) were obtained and then processed by NMR spectra (MestReNova 9.0). The binning values of NMR spectra are imported into MATLAB, and the peaks are aligned with the icoshift algorithm. Then concentrations of the aligned metabolites were calculated by converting the integral area of proton signals with that of the TSP. Pattern recognition was performed to the processed NMR data, including principal component analysis (PCA) and orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA). Characteristic metabolites were identified that contribute most to the metabolic pattern between groups according to the OPLS-DA models. Finally, we analyzed the metabolic pathway by importing characteristic metabolites with concentrations into the Enrichment Analysis (MetaboAnalysis 3.0) to determine the metabolic pathways with the greatest disturbance related to caffeine during exercise. Moreover, the main effects of exercise, caffeine and the interaction between exercise and caffeine were determined by Repeated measure GLM analysis (Spss 22.0).
 Results (1) Compared with PLA, CAF had no significant difference in the completed time (25.9 min vs. 26.8 min). Repeated measured analysis showed that there was significant overall time effect on the routine training monitoring parameters, while no statistically group differences in HR0min, HR1min, BLa (199.02±21.36 vs.189.00±22.38 bpm; 148.02±12.60 vs.148.02±20.34 bpm, and 8.89±2.23 vs. 9.52±2.91 mmol/L, respectively). For the qualitative indexes, the positive rate of urine ketone bodies was increased, while RPE did not changed. (2) We identified 32 metabolites in urine sample. PCA showed distinct differentiation of metabolic patterns between each two groups in the four groups (PLAbefore, PLApost, CAFbefore, CAFafter). By using OPLS-DA, we found that the urine metabolic profiles were differences in between caffeine supplementation group and placebo group during the test. OPLS-DA revealed the identified metabolites of exercise and caffeine respectively, among them, lactate, butyric acid, isobutyric acid, 3-hydroxybutyric acid and pyruvic acid could be used as metabolic biomarkers in the HITT response. Supplementation of caffeine increased the production of fat metabolites in urine compared to the PLA. Enrichment analysis showed that the disturbed metabolic pathways shared by PLA and CAF were purine metabolism, glycolysis, insulin signal transduction, galactose metabolism, gluconeogenesis, glucose-alanine cycle, sphingolipid metabolism, alanine metabolism and citric acid cycle. Yet, when compared to the PLA, CAF enhanced fat metabolism and increased pyruvate metabolism, cysteine metabolism and mitochondrial electron transport. These results suggest that caffeine could promote fatty acid metabolism and amino acid metabolism to improve aerobic metabolism and to reduce oxidative stress, and thus promote exercise capacity. (3) Covariance analysis showed that there were significant individual-specific effects of caffeine supplementation.
 Conclusions Caffeine supplementation during HITT promoted the fat metabolism, and upregulated the TCA, pyruvate metabolism and mitochondrial electron transfer. It is suggested that caffeine could, to some extent, promote energy supply shift from anaerobic metabolic to an aerobic manner, and the enhancement of fat oxidation would be beneficial to glycogen storage for intensively long-duration exercise. Moreover, there are obvious individual differences in caffeine response on sports.

Pollination Markets and the Coupled Futures of Almonds and Honey Bees: Simulating Impacts of Shifts in Demands and Costs

AbstractHoney bees have garnered much attention in recent years. Concerns about long‐term sustainability of pollinator populations have been coupled with concerns about implications for food supplies. We use a novel formulation of a multiple input, multiple output, two season equilibrium simulation model to explore economic linkages across the markets of buyers and sellers of pollination services and honey. We specify and calibrate in a tractable way the empirical relationships between pollinators and the crops they pollinate, especially almonds. Our model highlights the sequential nature of the pollination season and implication for revenue from pollination and honey production. We demonstrate how shifts in almond supply and demand and the much‐discussed honey bee hive health problems cause price and quantity adjustments in horizontally and vertically related markets and quantify these effects. We show that the economic fortunes of the almond industry, including demand growth, cost concerns, and the potential for new almond varieties that use fewer bees, crucially affect the returns to beekeeping and the number of hives. These drivers of almond economics also have substantial effects on the cost of pollination for crops that are pollinated later.

Dietary supplementation with alkylresorcinols prevents muscle atrophy through a shift of energy supply

It has been reported that phytoextracts that contain alkylresorcinols (ARs) protect against severe myofibrillar degeneration found in isoproterenol-induced myocardial infarction. In this study, we examined the effect of dietary ARs derived from wheat bran extracts on muscle atrophy in denervated mice. The mice were divided into the following four groups: (1) sham-operated (control) mice fed with normal diet (S-ND), (2) denervated mice fed with normal diet (D-ND), (3) control mice fed with ARs-supplemented diet (S-AR) and (4) denervated mice fed with ARs-supplemented diet (D-AR). The intake of ARs prevented the denervation-induced reduction of the weight of the hind limb muscles and the myofiber size. However, the expression of ubiquitin ligases and autophagy-related genes, which is associated with muscle proteolysis, was slightly higher in D-AR than in D-ND. Moreover, the abundance of the autophagy marker p62 was significantly higher in D-AR than in D-ND. Muscle atrophy has been known to be associated with a disturbed energy metabolism. The expression of pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase 4 (PDK4), which is related to fatty acid metabolism, was decreased in D-ND as compared with that in S-ND. In contrast, dietary supplementation with ARs inhibited the decrease of PDK4 expression caused by denervation. Furthermore, the abnormal expression pattern of genes related to the abundance of lipid droplets-coated proteins that was induced by denervation was improved by ARs. These results raise the possibility that dietary supplementation with ARs modifies the disruption of fatty acid metabolism induced by lipid autophagy, resulting in the prevention of muscle atrophy.

A seasonal source and sink of nitrous oxide in mangroves: Insights from concentration, isotope, and isotopomer measurements

Mangrove forests can be a source or a sink of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but seasonal mangrove N2O dynamics are not well understood. We used continuous high-resolution N2O concentration data to construct seasonal budgets of N2O in two tropical mangrove-lined creeks for both the wet and dry seasons. Furthermore we used N stable isotope analysis to constrain the pathways of N2O production and consumption within these creeks. Calculated water-air fluxes were within a range typical of undisturbed mangroves, however obvious seasonal differences in N2O dynamics were observed at the two sites. The mangrove systems were a net source of N2O to the atmosphere during the dry season and a net sink during the wet season. In the wet season we propose that increased allochthonous carbon enhances N2O consumption by denitrification. Combining the seasonal fluxes, the Fitzroy mangrove system, which received a continual input of allochthonous nitrate (NO3−), was a net source of N2O, while the Burdekin mangrove system was close to a net N2O balance. Interpreted in the context of DIN and N2O concentrations, the N2O isotopic values observed in the dry season point to fungal denitrification as the most likely pathway of N2O production. This study shows that subtle shifts in seasonal nutrient supply regulate mangrove N2O production and consumption.

Mitigating Effect of Nitrates (Monizol) on Pharmacodynamic Shifts in the Cardiovascular System Caused by Radioprotector Indralin.

We studied the effect of radioprotector indralin (B-190) alone or in combination with monizol on BP and HR in rabbits, reduction of blood supply and spleen weight in rats and (CBA×C57Bl/6)F1 hybrids mice, and on blood loss from a wound on tip of the tail in mice. Being an α1-adrenomimetic, indralin caused hypertensive reaction with the development of bradycardia, reduced blood supply and spleen weight, and sharply reduced blood loss from the wound. Monizol as nitrate reduced BP without affecting HR and reduced blood loss from the wound. Monizol administered prior to indralin eliminated radioprotector-induced hypertensive reaction, reduced bradycardia by more than 2 times, and attenuated the effect of indralin on spleen weight and blood loss from the wound by 1.6-1.8 times. Monizol administered after indralin had no effect on shifts in peripheral blood supply caused by the radioprotector.

Persistent nitrogen limitation of stream biofilm communities along climate gradients in the Arctic.

Climate change is rapidly reshaping Arctic landscapes through shifts in vegetation cover and productivity, soil resource mobilization, and hydrological regimes. The implications of these changes for stream ecosystems and food webs is unclear and will depend largely on microbial biofilm responses to concurrent shifts in temperature, light, and resource supply from land. To study those responses, we used nutrient diffusing substrates to manipulate resource supply to biofilm communities along regional gradients in stream temperature, riparian shading, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) loading in Arctic Sweden. We found strong nitrogen (N) limitation across this gradient for gross primary production, community respiration and chlorophyll-a accumulation. For unamended biofilms, activity and biomass accrual were not closely related to any single physical or chemical driver across this region. However, the magnitude of biofilm response to N addition was: in tundra streams, biofilm response was constrained by thermal regimes, whereas variation in light availability regulated this response in birch and coniferous forest streams. Furthermore, heterotrophic responses to experimental N addition increased across the region with greater stream water concentrations of DOC relative to inorganic N. Thus, future shifts in resource supply to these ecosystems are likely to interact with other concurrent environmental changes to regulate stream productivity. Indeed, our results suggest that in the absence of increased nutrient inputs, Arctic streams will be less sensitive to future changes in other habitat variables such as temperature and DOC loading.

Public debt and relative prices in a cross-section of countries

This paper examines the effects of debt and distortionary labor taxation on the long-run behavior of the relative price of nontraded goods. At the theoretical level, in a two-sector open economy model we demonstrate that higher public debt, associated with higher taxation, contracts labor supply in both traded and nontraded goods sectors. Relative prices move inversely with relative supply shifts which, in turn, depend on relative factor intensities. At the empirical level, for a panel of advanced economies, we find statistically significant effects of public debt and taxes on the relative price of nontraded goods, with higher debt and taxes associated with higher relative prices.

The Impact of Export Restrictions on Production: A Synthetic Control Approach

In spite of the generalized use of quantitative restrictions on exports, there is little empirical research on their effectiveness to achieve the intended effects of reducing exports, increasing production for the domestic market, and reducing domestic prices. This paper aims at filling this gap by estimating the impact of quantitative restrictions on beef cattle exports in Bolivia, applying a synthetic control approach. Our main finding is that export restrictions have a negative impact not only on total production, but also on production for the domestic market. This fact, together with an increase in the domestic price, is consistent with a supply shift. The fact that export controls can shift supply and actually harm production for the domestic market bears important implications for the design of policies in the future.

Enhanced production of extracellular inulinase by the yeast Kluyveromyces marxianus in xylose catabolic state

The production of extracellular proteins by the thermotolerant yeast Kluyveromyces marxianus, which utilizes various sugars, was investigated using media containing sugars such as glucose, galactose, and xylose. SDS-PAGE analysis of culture supernatants revealed abundant production of an extracellular protein when cells were grown in xylose medium. The N-terminal sequence of the extracellular protein was identical to a part of the inulinase encoded by INU1 in the genome. Inulinase is an enzyme hydrolyzing β-2,1-fructosyl bond in inulin and sucrose and is not required for xylose assimilation. Disruption of INU1 in the strain DMKU 3-1042 lost the production of the extracellular protein and resulted in growth defect in sucrose and inulin media, indicating that the extracellular protein was inulinase (sucrase). In addition, six K.marxianus strains among the 16 strains that were analyzed produced more inulinase in xylose medium than in glucose medium. However, expression analysis indicated that the INU1 promoter activity was lower in the xylose medium than in the glucose medium, suggesting that enhanced production of inulinase is controlled in a post-transcriptional manner. The production of inulinase was also higher in cultures with more agitation, suggesting that oxygen supply affects the production of inulinase. Taken together, these results suggest that both xylose and oxygen supply shift cellular metabolism to enhance the production of extracellular inulinase.

Decadal Changes in the Edible Supply of Seafood and Methylmercury Exposure in the United States.

Background:Methylmercury (MeHg) exposure is associated with adverse effects on neurodevelopment and cardiovascular health. Previous work indicates most MeHg is from marine fish sold in the commercial market, but does not fully resolve supply regions globally. This information is critical for linking changes in environmental MeHg levels to human exposure in the U.S. population.Objectives:We used available data to estimate the geographic origins of seafood consumed in the United States (major ocean basins, coastal fisheries, aquaculture, freshwater) and how shifts in edible supply affected MeHg exposures between 2000–2002 and 2010–2012.Methods:Source regions for edible seafood and MeHg exposure in the United States were characterized from national and international landing, export and import data from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations and the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service.Results:Our analysis suggests 37% of U.S. population-wide MeHg exposure is from mainly domestic coastal systems and 45% from open ocean ecosystems. We estimate that the Pacific Ocean alone supplies more than half of total MeHg exposure. Aquaculture and freshwater fisheries together account for an estimated 18% of total MeHg intake. Shifts in seafood types and supply regions between 2000–2002 and 2010–2012 reflect changes in consumer preferences (e.g., away from canned light meat tuna), global ecosystem shifts (e.g., northern migration of cod stocks), and increasing supply from aquaculture (e.g., shrimp and salmon).Conclusion:Our findings indicate global actions that reduce anthropogenic Hg emissions will be beneficial for U.S. seafood consumers because open ocean ecosystems supply a large fraction of their MeHg exposure. However, our estimates suggest that domestic actions can provide the greatest benefit for coastal seafood consumers. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2644

UNDERSTANDING THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORCES BEHIND THE FALL AND RISE IN THE US SKILL PREMIUM

I develop an assignment model to quantify, in a unified framework, the causal effects of supply and demand forces on the evolution of the college wage premium in the US economy. Specifically, I quantify the relative contributions of four different forces: (i) a within-sector non-neutral technological change, (ii) the creation of new high-skill services/sectors, (iii) polarizing product demand shifts, and (iv) shifts in the relative supply of skilled labor. The model considers endogenous human capital accumulation. I find that positive supply shifts completely explain the fall of the skill premium during the period 1970–1980. Demand forces play a major role in the post-1980 period, when the skill premium rises. Among the demand forces, the results show an increasing contribution of polarizing product demand shifts over the decades. On the other hand, the effect of the within-sector non-neutral technological change is more important in the earlier decades of the post-1980 period.

Measuring Cerebral Blood Flow in Moyamoya Angiopathy by Quantitative Magnetic Resonance Angiography Noninvasive Optimal Vessel Analysis.

Moyamoya disease causes progressive occlusion of the supraclinoidal internal carotid artery, and middle, anterior, and less frequently the posterior cerebral arteries, carrying the risk of stroke. Blood flow is often partially reconstituted by compensatory moyamoya collaterals and sometimes the posterior circulation. Cerebral revascularization can further augment blood flow. These changes to blood flow within the cerebral vessels, however, are not well characterized. To evaluate blood flow changes resulting from the disease process and revascularization surgery using quantitative magnetic resonance angiography with noninvasive optimal vessel analysis (NOVA). We retrospectively analyzed 190 preoperative and postoperative imaging scans in 66 moyamoya patients after revascularization surgery. Images were analyzed for blood flow using NOVA and compared with preoperative angiographic staging and postoperative blood flow. Blood flow rates within superficial temporal artery grafts were compared based on angiographic evidence of patency. Diseased vessels had lower blood flow, correlating with angiographic staging. Flow in posterior cererbal and basilar arteries increased with disease severity, particularly when both the anterior and middle cerebral arteries were occluded. Basilar artery flow and ipsilateral internal carotid artery flow decreased after surgery. Flow rates were different between angiographically robust and poor direct bypass grafts, as well as between robust and patent grafts. Preoperative changes in cerebral vessel flow as measured by NOVA correlated with angiographic disease progression. NOVA demonstrated that preoperative augmentation of the posterior circulation decreased after surgery. This report is the first to quantify the shift in collateral supply from the posterior circulation to the bypass graft.

A decrease in the abundance and strategic sophistication of cleaner fish after environmental perturbations.

Coral reef ecosystems are declining worldwide and under foreseeable threat due to climate change, resulting in significant changes in reef communities. It is unknown, however, how such community changes impact interspecific interactions. Recent extreme weather events affecting the Great Barrier Reef, that is, consecutive cyclones and the 2016 El Niño event, allowed us to explore potential consequences in the mutualistic interactions involving cleaner fish Labroides dimidiatus (hereafter "cleaner"). After the perturbations, cleaner densities were reduced by 80%, disproportionally compared to the variety of reef fish clients from which cleaners remove ectoparasites. Consequently, shifts in supply and demand yielded an increase in the clients' demand for cleaning. Therefore, clients became less selective toward cleaners, whereas cleaners were able to choose from a multitude of partners. In parallel, we found a significant decline in the ability of cleaners to manage their reputation and to learn to prioritize ephemeral food sources to maximize food intake in laboratory experiments. In other words, cleaners failed to display the previously documented strategic sophistication that made this species a prime example for fish intelligence. In conclusion, low population densities may cause various effects on individual behavior, and as a consequence, interspecific interactions. At the same time, our data suggest that a recovery of population densities would cause a recovery of previously described interaction patterns and cleaner strategic sophistication within the lifetime of individuals.

Is nitrogen accumulation in grain legumes responsive to growth or ontogeny?

Nitrogen (N) accumulation in legumes is one of the main determinants of crop yield. Although N accumulation from symbiotic nitrogen fixation or N absorption from the soil has been widely investigated, there is no clear consensus on timing of the beginning of N accumulation and the termination of N accumulation and the physiological events that may be associated with these two events. The analyses conducted in this study aimed at identifying the determinant of N accumulation in two grain legume species. Nitrogen accumulation dynamics and mass accumulation and development stages were recorded in the field for several genotypes of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) and faba bean (Vicia faba) under different growing conditions. This study showed that during the vegetative stages, N accumulation rate was correlated with mass accumulation rate. However, the maximum accumulation of N did not correspond to the time of the maximum mass accumulation. In fact, for both species, N accumulation was found to persist in seed growth. This challenges a common hypothesis that seed growth causes a decrease in N accumulation because of a shift of the photosynthate supply to support the seed growth. Even more surprising was the shift of the active accumulation of N in faba bean to late in the growing season as compared with common bean. N accumulation by faba bean only was initiated at high rates very late in vegetative growth and persisted at high rates well into seed fill.

Regional growth differences in China for 1995–2013: an empirical integrative analysis of their sources

An integrative empirical analysis of several regional economic outcome variables in China for the period of 1995–2013 reveal the major sources of regional growth differences in China. Patterns of growth in population, per capita income, gross regional product, housing prices and changes in unemployment rates are identified using principal components analysis. Regression analysis of principal component scores is applied to identify geographic and administrative status patterns in the sources of the growth. The analysis suggests that shifts in labor supply largely were responsible for the regional growth differences over the period, though shifts in labor demand were nearly equally as important. The results have implications for evaluating the success of regional development policies such as the Western Development Strategy.

MicroRNAs modulate core-clock gene expression in pancreatic islets during early postnatal life in rats.

Evidence continues to emerge detailing a fine-tuning of the regulation of metabolic processes and energy homeostasis by cell-autonomous circadian clocks. Pancreatic beta cell functional maturation occurs after birth and implies transcriptional changes triggered by a shift in the nutritional supply that occurs at weaning, enabling the adaptation of insulin secretion. So far, the developmental timing and exact mechanisms involved in the initiation of the circadian clock in the growing pancreatic islets have never been addressed. Circadian gene expression was measured by quantitative RT-PCR in islets of rats at different postnatal ages up to 3months, and by in vitro bioluminescence recording in newborn (10-day-old) and adult (3-month-old) islets. The effect of the microRNAs miR-17-5p and miR-29b-3p on the expression of target circadian genes was assessed in newborn rat islets transfected with microRNA antisense or mimic oligonucleotides, and luciferase reporter assays were performed on the rat insulin-secreting cell line INS832/13 to determine a direct effect. The global regulatory network between microRNAs and circadian genes was computationally predicted. We found up to a sixfold-change in the 24h transcriptional oscillations and overall expression of Clock, Npas2, Bmal1, Bmal2, Rev-erbα, Per1, Per2, Per3 and Cry2 between newborn and adult rat islets. Synchronisation of the clock machinery in cultured islet cells revealed a delayed cell-autonomous rhythmicity of about 1.5h in newborn compared with adult rats. Computational predictions unveiled the existence of a complex regulatory network linking over 40 microRNAs displaying modifications in their expression profiles during postnatal beta cell maturation and key core-clock genes. In agreement with these computational predictions, we demonstrated that miR-17-5p and miR-29b-3p directly regulated circadian gene expression in the maturing islet cells of 10-day-old rats. These data show that the circadian clock is not fully operational in newborn islets and that microRNAs potently contribute to its regulation during postnatal beta cell maturation. Defects in this process may have long-term consequences on circadian physiology and pancreatic islet function, favouring the manifestation of metabolic diseases such as diabetes.

Measuring Farm and Market Level Economic Impacts of Improved Maize Production Technologies in Ethiopia: Evidence from Panel Data

AbstractWhile it is often recognised that agricultural technology adoption decisions are intertwined and best characterised by multivariate models, typical approaches to examining adoption and impacts of agricultural technology have focused on single technology adoption choice and ignored interdependence among technologies. We examine farm‐ and market‐level impacts of multiple technology adoption choices using comprehensive household survey data collected in 2010/11 and 2012/13 in Ethiopia. Economic surplus analysis combined with panel data switching endogenous regression models are used to compute the supply shift parameter (K‐shift parameter), while at the same time controlling for the endogeneity inherent in agricultural technology adoption among farmers. We find that our improved technology set choices have significant impacts on farm‐level maize yield and maize production costs, where the greatest effect appears to be generated when various technologies are combined. The change in maize yield and production costs results in an average 26.4% cost reduction per kilogram of maize output (the K‐shift parameter). This increases the producer and consumer surpluses by US$ 140 and US$ 105 million per annum, respectively. These changes in economic surplus help to reduce the number of poor people by an estimated 788 thousand per year. We conclude that deliberate extension efforts and other policies that encourage integration of technologies are important for maize technologies to yield their full potential at both farm and market levels.

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle*

Abstract Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2015, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t − 2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t + 1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. When credit risk is aggressively priced, spreads subsequently widen. The timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the onset of a contraction in economic activity. Exploring the mechanism, we find that buoyant credit-market sentiment in year t − 2 also forecasts a change in the composition of external finance: net debt issuance falls in year t, while net equity issuance increases, consistent with the reversal in credit-market conditions leading to an inward shift in credit supply. Unlike much of the current literature on the role of financial frictions in macroeconomics, this article suggests that investor sentiment in credit markets can be an important driver of economic fluctuations.