Shifts In Species Distributions Research Articles

Climate and Land Use Changes Impact the Future of European Amphibian Functional Diversity

Climate and land use changes drive shifts in species distributions, causing variations in species richness. Yet the influence of shifts in species distributions on functional diversity at broad spatial scales remains uncertain. Here, we explored the potential effect of climate and land use changes on the functional diversity of European amphibian assemblages from the present to 2050, along with their effect on species richness. We performed species distribution modelling using a scenario of climate and land use change to estimate current and future potential distributions of 73 species. We estimated functional diversity using morphological and ecological functional traits. Our results highlight the intricate effects of climate and land use changes on taxonomic and functional diversity of amphibians. A climate-induced northward expansion of amphibians is anticipated, with temperature, precipitation, and forest cover prominently shaping future assemblages. Species expected to have shrinking ranges (n = 35) tend to mature sexually at a later age, produce fewer offspring per reproductive event, and live at higher maximum altitudes compared to species expected to expand (n = 38). Furthermore, trait composition changes are expected to exceed predictions based solely on species richness. These changes will vary geographically, with northern regions likely experiencing substantial increases in functional richness and functional redundancy, i.e., the coexistence of species with similar functional roles. Our findings underscore that functional diversity changes might serve as an early warning signal to assess human impacts on biodiversity.

Evaluating the ecological impact of fisheries management strategies in Georgia, USA: A review on current practices and future directions

Effective fisheries management is crucial for maintaining the ecological balance and sustainability of marine ecosystems. This review paper examines the current fisheries management strategies employed in the state of Georgia, USA, and evaluates their ecological impact. The review synthesizes existing research on the implementation and outcomes of various management approaches, including gear restrictions, catch limits, seasonal closures, and marine protected areas. It analyzes the efficacy of these strategies in conserving target species, mitigating bycatch, and preserving the overall health of coastal and estuarine environments. Furthermore, the paper identifies emerging challenges, such as the impacts of climate change and shifting species distributions, and explores potential future directions for fisheries management in Georgia. The findings of this review aim to inform policymakers, resource managers, and stakeholders about the strengths and limitations of current practices, and provide recommendations for developing more comprehensive and adaptive management frameworks to ensure the long-term ecological resilience of Georgia's marine ecosystems.

Elevational shifts in tree community composition in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest related to climate change

AbstractQuestionClimate change induces shifts in species distributions, ultimately changing community composition. Mountains are especially sensitive to climate change, and tree species are predicted to move towards higher elevations, but observed changes are not always unidirectional. The diversity and complexity of tropical and subtropical systems limits our understanding of climate‐induced responses of subtropical mountain forests. Here, we investigated migration trends in tree community composition along an elevational gradient, and between the transition from lowland to montane forests in subtropical forests.LocationBrazilian Atlantic Forest.MethodsWe used thermal affiliations of 627 tree species to calculate community temperature scores (CTS) for different life‐history stages of trees in 96 permanent plots. We compared CTS of different life‐history stages across space and time.ResultsMost tree communities (58%) did not show a significant difference of CTS between life‐history stages, indicating a non‐migration trend. On the other hand, 27% of tree communities showed upward migration and 15% downward migration. Upward migration was more common in montane forests, and downward migration in lowland forests. Our temporal analysis shows significant changes in CTS values for juvenile communities with 0.36°C decrease in lowland forests and 0.34°C increase in montane forests.ConclusionsContrasting results between lowland and montane forest communities indicate that the transition zone influences migration patterns and may reflect differences in species’ thermal limitations, as well as by non‐thermal factors such as biotic interactions. Our findings provide the first evidence of climate change‐induced community shifts in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We demonstrated that upward migration trends were predominantly observed in montane–upper mountain forests, while downward migrations were noted in lowland–submontane forests. The thermophilization of montane forests may suggest an increased risk of reduction for cold‐demanding species under climate change scenarios.

Community’s ecological traits reflect spatio-temporal variability of climate change impacts

Climate change is triggering shifts in species distribution eventually altering communities' biogeography. The composition of a community in terms of its species' ecological niche informs of a community's response to environmental conditions and impacts, which is central for a timely conservation. While the thermal niche has been widely explored, given it offers a direct link of warming effects on an assemblage, acknowledging the multivariate nature of a species niche can provide relevant insights of the reorganizations taking place at a community-level. We studied the mean and variance of 10 ecological traits at the community level in two regional ecosystems in the temperate East-Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, characterized by a distinct exposure to warming. Our findings revealed major temporal changes and spatial structuring in the traits and ranges explored over the last decades. Apart from confirming the expected general poleward, deep-ward shift, our results highlighted a widening of thermal and latitudinal ranges, possibly related to a ‘flexibilitation’ of the communities in a context of global change. In addition, temporal patterns reflected how communities have adjusted around regime shifts known in both areas. Regional differences arose concerning the variance of depth ranges and area of distribution, as well as to the global evolution of the communities, which we argue are consequence of their different geographical features and ecological history. The comparison of two large multitaxon assemblages has disclosed a broad-scale motion of response to warming in the bentho-demersal domain. We expect this study will contribute to the understanding of the multivariate nature of global-change effects on marine fauna, which ultimately informs adaptive management.

Increased habitat availability as revealed by LiDAR contributes to the tropicalization of a subtropical butterfly community

AbstractSpecies redistribution through climate change remains a global problem. However, factors such as habitat availability can complicate the attribution of species distribution shifts. We used habitat metrics derived from repeated airborne LiDAR surveys in 2010 to 2020 to examine the underlying causes for the establishment of new butterfly species in Hong Kong. For six species newly arrived since 2000, we built species distribution models using the Random Forest algorithm based on LiDAR data from 2020 to characterize species' preferred habitats across the region. Through hindcasting, we applied the model to LiDAR data from 2010 to observe any changes in the availability of preferred habitat. We found widespread vertical forest growth across Hong Kong and increased probability of occurrence based on increased habitat availability for all six species. The underlying habitat drivers, however, varied significantly across species; two species (Lethe chandica, Notocrypta paralysos) were associated with closed forest while two other species (Prosotas dubiosa, Prosotas nora) were associated with urbanicity. Our results highlight how changes in habitat can occur concurrently with climatic change and together drive the redistribution of biodiversity. Particularly for vertically complex tropical forests, airborne LiDAR data can be leveraged to observe changes in habitat complexity and how these relate to shifts in species distributions.

Northeast Atlantic species distribution shifts over the last two decades.

Marine species are widely shifting their distributions in response to global changes and it is commonly expected they will move northward and to greater depths to reach cooler, less disturbed habitats. However, local manifestations of global changes, anthropogenic pressures, and species characteristics may lead to unanticipated and varied responses by individual species. In this regard, the Celtic-Biscay Shelf is a particularly interesting study system because it has historically been heavily fished and occurs at the interface between two distinct biogeographic provinces, its community thus comprised of species with diverse thermal preferenda. In the context of rapidly warming temperatures and intense fishery exploitation, we investigated the distribution shifts of 93 taxa (65 Actinopteri, 10 Elasmobranchii, 11 Cephalopoda, 5 Malacostraca, and 2 Bivalvia), which were sampled annually from 1997 to 2020 during a scientific bottom trawl survey. We used a set of 11 complementary spatial indices to quantify taxon distribution shifts over time. Then, we explored the relative effect of taxon abundance, fishing pressure, and climatic conditions on taxon's distribution shift when a significant shift was detected. We observed that 56% of the taxa significantly shifted. Not all taxa will necessarily shift northward and to deeper areas, as it is often expected. Two opposite patterns were identified: taxa either moving deeper and to the southeast, or moving closer to the surface and to the northwest. The main explanatory factors were climate change (short- and long-term temperatures) and taxon abundance. Fishing pressure was the third, but still significant, explanatory factor of taxa of greater commercial importance. Our research highlights that taxa are displaying complex distribution shifts in response to the combined anthropogenic disturbances and underscores the need to conduct regional studies to better understand these responses at the ecosystem scale to develop more suitable management plans and policies.

Human-Induced Range Expansions Result in a Recent Hybrid Zone between Sister Species of Ducks.

Landscapes are consistently under pressure from human-induced ecological change, often resulting in shifting species distributions. For some species, changing the geographical breadth of their niche space results in matching range shifts to regions other than those in which they are formally found. In this study, we employ a population genomics approach to assess potential conservation issues arising from purported range expansions into the south Texas Brush Country of two sister species of ducks: mottled (Anas fulvigula) and Mexican (Anas diazi) ducks. Specifically, despite being non-migratory, both species are increasingly being recorded outside their formal ranges, with the northeastward and westward expansions of Mexican and mottled ducks, respectively, perhaps resulting in secondary contact today. We assessed genetic ancestry using thousands of autosomal loci across the ranges of both species, as well as sampled Mexican- and mottled-like ducks from across overlapping regions of south Texas. First, we confirm that both species are indeed expanding their ranges, with genetically pure Western Gulf Coast mottled ducks confirmed as far west as La Salle county, Texas, while Mexican ducks recorded across Texas counties near the USA-Mexico border. Importantly, the first confirmed Mexican × mottled duck hybrids were found in between these regions, which likely represents a recently established contact zone that is, on average, ~100 km wide. We posit that climate- and land use-associated changes, including coastal habitat degradation coupled with increases in artificial habitats in the interior regions of Texas, are facilitating these range expansions. Consequently, continued monitoring of this recent contact event can serve to understand species' responses in the Anthropocene, but it can also be used to revise operational survey areas for mottled ducks.

Rapid molecular species identification of mammalian scat samples using nanopore adaptive sampling

Rapid molecular species identification of mammalian scat samples using nanopore adaptive sampling

Projected climate‐driven shifts in coral distribution indicate tropicalisation of Southwestern Atlantic reefs

AbstractAimPredicting and acting on the future of ecosystems requires understanding species distribution shifts due to climate change. We investigated which corals are more likely to shift their distribution in the Southwestern Atlantic under a warming scenario.LocationSouthwestern Atlantic (SWA; 1° N–28° S).MethodsWe used spatial distribution models with a Bayesian approach to predict the current and future (2050 and 2100) coral occurrence probabilities of 12 zooxanthellate corals and hydrocorals under an intermediate scenario of increasing greenhouse gas emissions (RCP6.0) projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).ResultsWe found a decline in the occurrence probabilities of all 12 taxa within the tropics (1° N–20° S) and an increase towards subtropical sites (20–28° S) as early as 2050. The most significant declines are projected to occur between 9° S and 20° S, a region that currently hosts the richest reef complex in the South Atlantic, the Abrolhos bank. The imminent loss of suitable habitat in the tropics mostly threatens the Brazilian endemics and range restricted corals Mussismilia braziliensis and Mussismilia harttii, while more widely distributed taxa such as Siderastrea spp., Millepora spp. and Porites spp. are expected to expand their ranges southwards.Main ConclusionsThe projected declines in the tropical region are likely to reduce structural complexity causing biodiversity loss. The overall increase in occurrence probabilities in subtropical areas indicates tropicalisation of SWA reefs, which may benefit species already established in these areas and potentially enrich coral assemblages through the range expansion of taxa that currently do not occur in the region. These findings emphasise the need to support ecological corridors that could aid coral migration towards more suitable habitats under climate change.

Dynamic marine spatial planning for conservation and fisheries benefits

AbstractThe increasing global demand for marine resources raises concerns about sustainable resource management and biodiversity conservation. Spatial closures, such as marine protected areas, can be valuable tools for maintaining and restoring exploited populations. When these spatial closures adopt a dynamic nature being adapted to the changing environment, they can effectively account for factors such as shifting species distributions, which enhances their potential to achieve ecological and socio‐economic objectives. Here, we adapted a decision‐support tool (the software Marxan), typically used for selecting static and permanent areas, to produce management recommendations that integrate permanent and temporal closures to fisheries. Our aim was to compare the outputs of a static network of permanent no‐take reserves with four other dynamic scenarios, including permanent and temporal closures that account for seasonal variations in the populations of species. All scenarios prioritized sites for the conservation of one of the most valuable European fishing stocks, the Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus). Additionally, we considered 12 other commercially exploited species captured by the Norway lobster fishery. The assessed outputs included retained biomass, area extent, closure type (permanent and seasonal) and opportunity costs within each scenario. We observed that all dynamic scenarios required fewer management areas permanently closed than the static scenario. This resulted in a lower opportunity cost for fisheries but also a higher capacity for biodiversity conservation. Therefore, complementing permanent with temporal closures could enhance biodiversity conservation and fisheries management. The novel dynamic planning method presented here could be applicable to other species, ecosystems and socio‐economic contexts.

What if there is no further south to go: Assessing the vulnerability of Nacella species to climate change

In the current context of climate change, southern South America and the Southern Ocean are undergoing profound environmental transformations that impose challenges to marine species. Shifts in species distribution ranges will occur through expansions or contractions of the range edges. Invertebrates such as Nacella spp., that being template-cold water species, will be more vulnerable to increasing temperature and will therefore suffer range contraction as temperatures increase southward. To understand the future of this sensitive group of gastropods, the potential impact of future climate on the distribution ranges of six species of the genus Nacella was studied using ensemble ecological niche models and representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. The results indicate that all the species studied will undergo a shift in their distribution in response to the projected changes in climate with a decline in habitat suitability. Particularly, the species will lose suitable areas mainly in the northern edge of their current distribution. Nevertheless, the species may not change their distribution equally. Our study suggests that N. magellanica, N. clypeater, and N. concinna appear to exhibit vulnerability, albeit with potentially lesser impact. Nacella magellanica is the limpet that shows the least distribution change in 2100. Both species, N. clypeater and N. concinna, will move southward while the Antarctic species will expand their distribution to other Antarctic areas. The most significant impact is expected for three Magellanic species (N. deaurata, N. flammea, and N. mytilina), currently distributed across the southern tip of South America. With restricted geographical ranges, these species face increased vulnerability to habitat loss as they cannot migrate southward. This comprehensive analysis offers invaluable insights into how Nacella species could tackle the challenges of climate change. The emphasis on specific species' vulnerabilities and the differential impacts on their distribution enhances our understanding of the potential consequences of climate change in the studied region. Furthermore, it will aid in formulating effective conservation and management strategies to protect Antarctic and sub-Antarctic ecosystems.

Geographic variation in larval cold tolerance and exposure across the invasion front of a widely established forest insect.

Under global climate change, high and low temperature extremes can drive shifts in species distributions. Across the range of a species, thermal tolerance is based on acclimatization, plasticity, and may undergo selection, shaping resilience to temperature stress. In this study, we measured variation in cold temperature tolerance of early instar larvae of an invasive forest insect, Lymantria dispar dispar L. (Lepidoptera: Erebidae), using populations sourced from a range of climates within the current introduced range in the Eastern United States. We tested for population differences in chill coma recovery (CCR) by measuring recovery time following a period of exposure to a nonlethal cold temperature in 2 cold exposure experiments. A 3rd experiment quantified growth responses after CCR to evaluate sublethal effects. Our results indicate that cold tolerance is linked to regional climate, with individuals from populations sourced from colder climates recovering faster from chill coma. While this geographic gradient is seen in many species, detecting this pattern is notable for an introduced species founded from a single point-source introduction. We demonstrate that the cold temperatures used in our experiments occur in nature during cold spells after spring egg hatch, but impacts to growth and survival appear low. We expect that population differences in cold temperature performance manifest more from differences in temperature-dependent growth than acute exposure. Evaluating intraspecific variation in cold tolerance increases our understanding of the role of climatic gradients on the physiology of an invasive species, and contributes to tools for predicting further expansion.

Deciphering the interplay between tectonic and climatic forces on hydrologic connectivity in the evolving landscapes

The intricate interplay between climate and tectonics profoundly shapes landscapes over time frames surpassing 10 million years. Active tectonic processes and climatic shifts unsettle established drainage systems, instigating fragmentation or amalgamation of watersheds. These activities yield substantial transformation in surface hydrologic connectivity, thereby underlining the profound influence of these tectonic and climatic forces on the evolution of both landscape and hydrology. Such transformations within the hydrological landscape have direct implications for the evolution of aquatic species. As connections among aquatic habitats undergo reconfiguration, they incite shifts in species distribution and adaptive responses. These findings underscore the role of tectonics and climate in not only sculpting the physical landscape but also steering the course of biological evolution within these dynamically changing aquatic ecosystems relying on hydrologic connections. Despite the significance of these interactions, scholarly literature seldom examines alterations in hydrologic connectivity over tectonic, or orogen-scale, timescales. This study aims to bridge this gap, exploring changes in hydrologic connectivity over extended periods by simulating a continental rift system akin to the Rio Grande Rift, USA, subject to various tectonoclimatic scenarios. Multiple rift basins hosting large lakes, brought into existence by active tectonic extension, are further molded by tectonic extension and post-rift climatic changes. The study focuses on phenomena such as interbasin river breakthroughs and knickpoint generation, assembling a time-series of connectivity metrics based on stream network characteristics such as flow rate, flow distance, and captured drainage areas. We anticipate that the insights gleaned from this study will enhance our comprehension of the enduring impact of tectonic and climate processes on hydrologic connectivity and the subsequent evolution of aquatic species.

Climate change drives contrasting shifts in fish species distribution in the Mekong Basin

Global changes are causing significant alterations to terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems worldwide, with substantial implications for plant and animal populations, potentially leading to species extinctions. While freshwater ecosystems are recognized as particularly vulnerable to these impacts, there has been limited research conducted in tropical regions on how these changes will affect them. Here, we assessed the relative impacts of change in climate and human population density on fish species distribution between current (1970–2000) and future (2050s) time periods in the Mekong River. We analyzed occurrence data for 195 fish species from 10 functional guilds and employed species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate potential changes in fish species distribution under the independent and combined impacts of changes in climate and population density. Our results show that climate change, with significant change in temperature and precipitation rather than minor population shifts, will be the primary driver of future change in fish species distribution in the Mekong River with all fish guilds likely to expand their suitable habitats. However, contrasted distributional changes were observed among fish species, with certain guilds projected to gain more suitable habitat than others. Out of the 195 species examined, the majority of fish species studied (i.e., 84 %) are expected to undergo a northward distributional shift, while 49 species may experience a reduction in their suitable habitats. Additionally, significant declines in species richness are projected to occur in currently diverse areas (i.e., Tonle Sap Lake and River), while the highest increases in fish species richness are projected to occur in the 3S (Sesan, Sekong, and Srepok) River Basins. These findings highlight potential hotspots for mitigating the impacts of environmental changes, providing an opportunity for conservation practitioners and planners at the national and regional levels to develop and implement adaptation and mitigation measures.

Climate change increases threat to plant diversity in tropical forests of Central America and southern Mexico.

Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061-2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region's (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species' vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58-67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species' relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.

Multispecies population-scale emergence of climate change signals in an ocean warming hotspot

Abstract Ocean waters of the Northeast US continental shelf have warmed rapidly in recent years, with sea surface temperatures rising 2.5 times faster than those of the global oceans. With this strong warming trend, the frequency and duration of marine heatwaves have increased. These temperature changes stood out as a distinct warm temperature regime during the 2010s. During this decade, fish population characteristics also differed from the past. Species distribution shifts were detected for many species, demonstrating one way species could adapt to warming conditions. However, for most species, distribution shifts were insufficient to avoid warmer surface or bottom temperatures. As species occupied warmer habitats, growth patterns aligned with expectations for warming temperatures. Consistent with the temperature-size rule, some species exhibited faster growth at early life stages but plateaued at smaller body sizes; other species, however, experienced reduced growth across all ages, indicating thermal stress. Finally, population productivity indexed by the recruit-to-spawner ratio declined significantly during the 2010s for some populations. Changes in these three processes—distribution, growth, and productivity—indicate the emergence of climate change signals across multiple Northeast US fish populations. These effects create new challenges for fishery managers and industry participants operating in the context of non-stationarity and uncertainty.

Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Forestry Sector for Sustainability of Agro-Ecosystem: A Review

Ecosystems that are currently struggling are likely faring and pathetic conditions because of climate change. The most pressing problems facing people in the world's developing parts of the world are water scarcity, dwindling biodiversity, and stagnant agricultural output. According to the majority of scientists, global warming can be stopped before it becomes irreversible if temperatures are kept within a range of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius. Greenhouse gases, sometimes known as GHGs, are the burning causes of climate change impacts. Accelerated emissions of GHGs could be dependent on the rate of social, economic, and technological development. Forest systems have a crucial impact in mitigating global warming. Clearing forests, setting them on fire, or otherwise destroying those releases massive amounts of other greenhouse gases (GHGs), even if the forests are the planet's greatest terrestrial carbon sink. Forests' source-sink dynamics and the total quantity of carbon they store are profoundly impacted by regional differences in human land use, anthropogenic climate change, and disturbance. Constantly expanding conservation, restoration, reforestation, and afforestation operations will be necessary to keep global warming under control and stop it from exceeding the crucial threshold. Forests are currently being employed as a potential tool for combating climate change, which has been demonstrated to be an effective and long-term strategy. However, the impact of climate change on forests is largely negative. The negative effects of climate change on forests are becoming more pronounced, as evidenced by an increase in the forest fire events and results in a shift in species distribution at higher altitudes, an increase in dieback, an increase in the number of insect and pathogen infestations, drought and flood conditions, and a decrease in the ecosystem services provided by forests. The IPCC has predicted that changes to ecosystems, arctic ice melting, rising sea levels, decreased grain yields, declining fisheries, and the loss of coral reefs will all have significant consequences. Therefore, protecting ecosystem services and biodiversity is crucial to ensuring humanity's survival.

Ecology of Saline Watersheds: An Investigation of the Functional Communities and Drivers of Benthic Fauna in Typical Water Bodies of the Irtysh River Basin.

In this study, we investigated how changes in salinity affect biodiversity and function in 11 typical water bodies in the Altai region. The salinity of the freshwater bodies ranged from 0 to 5, the brackish water salinities ranged from 5 to 20, and the hypersaline environments had salinities > 20. We identified 11 orders, 34 families, and 55 genera in 3061 benthic samples and classified them into 10 traits and 32 categories. Subsequently, we conducted Mantel tests and canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and calculated biodiversity and functional diversity indices for each sampling site. The results indicated that biodiversity and the proportion of functional traits were greater in freshwater environments than in saline environments and decreased gradually with increasing salinity. Noticeable shifts in species distribution were observed in high-salinity environments and were accompanied by specific functional traits such as swimming ability, smaller body sizes, and air-breathing adaptations. The diversity indices revealed that the species were more evenly distributed in high-diversity environments under the influence of salinity. In contrast, in high-salinity environments, only a few species dominated. The results suggested that increasing salinity accelerated the evolution of benthic communities, leading to reduced species diversity and functional homogenization. We recommend enhancing the monitoring of saline water resources and implementing sustainable water resource management to mitigate the impact of salinity stress on aquatic communities in response to climate-induced soil and water salinization.

From Forests to Oceans: Exploring the Interconnected Influences of Climate Change on Ecosystems, Communities, and the Path to Sustainability

This research delves into the multifaceted repercussions of climate change on ecosystems and communities, employing a comprehensive assessment of empirical statistics and scholarly literature. Through meticulous analysis, it reveals that biodiversity loss, changes in hydrological patterns, and shifts in species distribution are resulting in huge ecological transformations. Considerably, the study finds that global warming has led to a amazing 8,532-unit reduction in deciduous forests and a remarkable 12,052-unit increase in shrublands from 1985 to 2019. Moreover, the increament in open water bodies by means of 1,151 units underscores the dynamic nature of environmental shifts. Those modifications have profound implications for human health and well-being, with the capacity to disrupt livelihoods and socio-economic systems.

Alaska's emergent fisheries processes

Under climate change, shifts in distributions of commercialized marine species challenge livelihoods and management in some fisheries and create opportunities in others. Whether existing management processes can enable fishers to access emergent fisheries – efforts by fishers to commercialize species – is unclear. Thus far, the literature has largely focused on reactive management processes that lead to overharvest and conflicts over fisheries allocations under species distributional shifts. We examine the progress and outcomes of 144 emergent fisheries in the state waters of Alaska, illustrating the historical diversity of management mechanisms, regions, species, and gears in the state's unique system of permitting and data collection for emergent fisheries. We further examine 28 emergent fisheries' roles in fishing portfolios through a métier analysis, finding that most are small extensions to existing portfolio strategies instead of novel opportunities for specialization. Together, these findings underscore challenges in adapting current processes to future shifts in marine species distributions, reflecting the need for large scale reconsiderations of scale, tradeoffs and a more holistic approach.