Phenological Shifts Research Articles

Local impacts of climate change on winter wheat in Great Britain.

Under future CMIP5 climate change scenarios for 2050, an increase in wheat yield of about 10% is predicted in Great Britain (GB) as a result of the combined effect of CO2 fertilization and a shift in phenology. Compared to the present day, crops escape increases in the climate impacts of drought and heat stresses on grain yield by developing before these stresses can occur. In the future, yield losses from water stress over a growing season will remain about the same across Great Britain with losses reaching around 20% of potential yield, while losses from drought around flowering will decrease and account for about 9% of water limited yield. Yield losses from heat stress around flowering will remain negligible in the future. These conclusions are drawn from a modelling study based on the response of the Sirius wheat simulation model to local-scale 2050-climate scenarios derived from 19 Global Climate Models from the CMIP5 ensemble at 25 locations representing current or potential wheat-growing areas in GB. However, depending on susceptibility to water stress, substantial interannual yield variation between locations is predicted, in some cases suggesting low wheat yield stability. For this reason, local-scale studies should be performed to evaluate uncertainties in yield prediction related to future weather patterns.

Assessing the Spatiotemporal Variability of Leaf Functional Traits and Their Drivers Across Multiple Amazon Evergreen Forest Sites: A Stochastic Parameterization Approach With Land‐Surface Modeling

AbstractMost earth system models fail to capture the seasonality of carbon fluxes in radiation‐limited tropical evergreen forests (TEF) in the Amazon. Kim et al. (2012, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02629.x) first statistically incorporated a light‐controlled phenology module into an ecosystem model to improve carbon flux simulations at one TEF site. However, it is not clear how their approach can be extended to other TEF sites with different climatic conditions. Here we evaluated temporal variability in plant functional traits at three different TEF sites using a data‐conditioned stochastic parameterization method. We showed that previously studied links—between seasonal photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and the traits Vcmax25 and leaf longevity—occur across sites. We further determined that seasonal PAR could similarly drive variations in the stomatal conductance slope parameter. Differences found in temporal trait estimates among sites indicate that dynamic trait parameters cannot be applied uniformly over space, but it may be possible to extrapolate them based on climatic factors. Motivated by recent observations that physiological capacity develops as leaves mature, we built new regression models for predicting traits that not only include PAR but also an autoregressive lag term to capture observed physiological delays behind PAR‐driven phenology shifts. With our stochastic parameterization, we predicted the three sites to be carbon neutral or carbon sinks under the RCP 8.5 future climate scenario. In contrast, projections using standard static trait parameters show most of the Amazonian TEF region becoming a carbon source. We further approximated that variable traits may allow at least a third of the radiation‐limited TEF region in the Amazon to serve as a future net carbon sink.

An empirical method to account for climatic adaptation in plant phenology models.

Phenological shifts in plant species are one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change impact on the biosphere. Modeling phenological variations of plant species over broad regions is challenging because of the varied climatic requirements of geographic populations due to local adaptation. In this study, we developed an empirical method to calibrate phenological models of temperate trees using latitude as a predictor to account for local adaptation of populations to a N-S temperature gradient. Fourteen widely distributed tree species in the eastern U.S.A. were investigated using data from the USA-National Phenology Network. We implemented the method in a basic thermal time bud break model to introduce the algorithm of the method and test its effectiveness. For each species, dates of breaking leaf buds were first predicted using a traditional non-spatial model and then with a spatial model that has the critical thermal forcing requirements calibrated for different populations at varied latitudes. As anticipated, non-spatial model predictions that assumed a uniform forcing requirement across latitudes showed consistent and systematic biases at both higher (overestimation-predictions being later) and lower (underestimation-predictions being earlier) latitudes. Spatial models that have been calibrated using our method removed the geographic biases and yielded latitudinal gradients that more closely matched those of the observations. The spatial models also reduced the overall prediction errors from an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 32.2 days to 20.4 days for the training dataset and an average root mean square error for prediction (RMSEP) of 32.2 days to 19.9 days for the testing dataset. This paper is focused on introducing the new calibration method as a preparatory step toward developing operational models that may potentially predict large-scale and range-wide phenological responses of various plant species to climatic changes with improved local accuracy.

How changes in spring and autumn phenology translate into growth‐experimental evidence of asymmetric effects

Abstract Earlier leaf‐out and later autumn leaf senescence under climate warming have been linked to increases in plant productivity and ecosystem carbon uptake. Yet, despite the potential implications of shifting phenology for plant carbon uptake, the degree to which phenological changes affect overall plant growth and the partitioning between above‐ and below‐ground biomass remains unclear. Here we use a 3‐year experiment to quantify changes in root and shoot growth of three woody plant species (two common European tree species, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus robur, and one shrub Lonicera xylosteum) under spring and autumn warming. In both tree species, the magnitude—and in Quercus even the direction—of the effects of growing‐season length on growth depends on whether the warming happened in spring or in autumn. Each day earlier leaf‐out in response to warming resulted in total biomass increases of 0.8%–2.5%, whereas delayed senescence led to reductions of 0.2%–2.1%. Advances in leaf‐out also led to increased root‐to‐shoot biomass ratios because root growth was proportionally more stimulated than shoot growth. In the shrub species, earlier leaf‐out had no effect, while delayed senescence led to increases in root, but not shoot, biomass. Synthesis. The strong asymmetry between growth responses to spring versus autumn phenology demonstrates that growing‐season length per se is a weak indicator of individual‐level tree productivity. The results further imply that phenological shifts are reshaping the functional balance between above‐ and below‐ground growth, which is critical for quantifying forest carbon dynamics under climate change.

Agriculture is adapting to phenological shifts caused by climate change, but grassland songbirds are not.

Migratory birds time their migration based on cues that signal resource availability for reproduction. However, with climate change, the timing of seasonal events may shift, potentially inhibiting the ability of some species to use them as accurate cues for migration. We studied the relationship between phenological shifts and reproduction by long‐ and short‐distance migratory songbirds—Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) and Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis). Our study population breeds in hayfields and pastures in Vermont, USA, where farmers are also changing management activities in response to climate change. From 2002 to 2019, we monitored nest initiation dates to quantify correlations with environmental factors and the timing of nest initiation. We collected historical and projected precipitation and temperature data for the breeding grounds, and their respective wintering and stopover sites, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We predicted that winter conditions experienced by the short‐distance migrant, the Savannah Sparrow, but not the long‐distance migrant, the Bobolink, would explain the timing and success of nesting, however that this timing would be misaligned with changes in agricultural practices by hay farmers. Nest initiation dates did not show significant directional change for either species, but did vary among years. Interannual variation in Savannah Sparrow nest initiation dates was best explained by the interaction between precipitation on the breeding grounds and average wintering site (Wilmington, North Carolina). For Bobolinks, interannual variation in nest initiation dates was best explained by the interaction between breeding ground precipitation and average temperature in their fall stopover site (Barquisimieto, Venezuela). However, first haying dates in Vermont advanced by ~10 days over 18 years. These results suggest that the conflict between the timing of hay harvests and grassland songbird reproduction will increase, further threatening population processes for these species, as early harvests notably decrease annual productivity.

Metabarcoding Malaise traps and soil eDNA reveals seasonal and local arthropod diversity shifts

Forest habitats host enormous diversity, but little is known about the seasonal turnover of arthropod species between the above- and below ground forest layers. In this study, we used metabarcoding approaches to uncover arthropod diversity in different forest types and seasons. Our study shows that metabarcoding soil eDNA and Malaise trap bulk samples can provide valuable insights into the phenology and life cycles of arthropods. We found major differences in arthropod species diversity between soil samples and Malaise traps, with only 11.8% species overlap. Higher diversity levels were found in Malaise traps in summer whereas soil samples showed a diversity peak in winter, highlighting the seasonal habitat preferences and life strategies of arthropods. We conclude that collecting time series of bulk arthropod samples and eDNA in the same locations provides a more complete picture of local arthropod diversity and turnover rates and may provide valuable information on climate induced phenological shifts for long-term monitoring.

Rapid phenological change differs across four trophic levels over 15 years.

The success of consumers often depends on synchronizing with their resources; however, recent climate change has affected the phenology of many species, resulting in mismatches and leading to community-wide changes. Field studies chronicling both the dynamics and behavior of four trophic levels seldom run for more than a few years, thereby bringing into question the longer term trajectories of these phenological shifts at multiple levels. Do these shifts between trophic levels remain constant over time, or do they continue to move apart? To address these questions, in 2004, I initiated a long-term study of the phenological relationships of two ferns, a host caterpillar (and its moth), its principal primary parasitoid wasp, and hyperparasitoid wasp. The study involves only a few species at each level, but they make up nearly all the members of the community. Ferns emerged progressively earlier in the spring, at rates exceeding one day per year, while moths eclosed roughly 0.6 days earlier per year, the primary parasitoid at 0.8 days earlier per year, and the hyperparasitoid fluctuated widely. Each of these changes fostered significant mismatches. Year-to-year changes of the moth and primary parasitoid varied much more than those of the ferns. In each instance, dates of last eclosions moved earlier more rapidly than did early eclosion dates, truncating their seasons. The extremely rapid, though variable, changes in phenology of the various trophic levels follow the unprecedentedly rapid temperature increase of the immediately adjacent Gulf of Maine.

Estimating abundance and phenology from transect count data with GLMs

Estimating population abundance is central to population ecology. With increasing concern over declining insect populations, estimating trends in abundance has become even more urgent. At the same time, there is an emerging interest in quantifying phenological patterns, in part because phenological shifts are one of the most conspicuous signs of climate change. Existing techniques to fit activity curves (and thus both abundance and phenology) to repeated transect counts of insects (a common form of data for these taxa) frequently fail for sparse data, and often require advanced knowledge of statistical computing. These limitations prevent us from understanding both population trends and phenological shifts, especially in the at‐risk species for which this understanding is most vital. Here we present a method to fit repeated transect count data with Gaussian curves using linear models and show how robust abundance and phenological metrics can be obtained using standard regression tools. We then apply this method to nine years of Baltimore checkerspot data using generalized linear models (GLMs). This case study illustrates the ability of our method to fit even years with only a few non‐zero survey counts, and identifies a significant negative relationship between population size and growing degree days (GDD) each year. We believe our new method provides a key tool to unlock previously‐unusable data sets, and may provide a useful middle ground between ad hoc metrics of abundance and phenology, and custom‐coded mechanistic models.

Changes in phenology and abundance of an at-risk butterfly

The US Endangered Species Act aims to recover threatened species and preserve their ecosystems, often through habitat management and restoration. In the face of climate change and phenological shifts, however, habitat management can seem futile. One of the most conspicuous effects of climate change is that many species are shifting in phenology, i.e., the timing of life history events. These shifts are assumed to have population-level effects on at-risk species, although it is less clear whether these effects are likely to be positive or negative. Here, we use a 27-year-long data set of Fender’s blue (Icaricia icarioides fenderi), an endangered butterfly, to investigate long-term changes in abundance and phenology at nine sites near Eugene, Oregon, USA. For Fender’s blue, day of peak flight activity consistently advanced at all sites from 1993 to 2019. At the same time, Fender’s blue populations increased at some sites and abundance was not changing at others. There was no association of population growth and advancement of peak flight activity. This suggests that although phenological shifts may be a “fingerprint” of climate change, they may not always be a cause for concern. Implications for insect conservation Lessons from Fender’s blue butterfly are likely applicable to conservation of other at-risk butterflies. Despite a rapidly changing climate, at least some rare species can be conserved and recovered with appropriate habitat management.

Improved performance of the eastern spruce budworm on black spruce as warming temperatures disrupt phenological defences

Phenological shifts, induced by global warming, can lead to mismatch between closely interacting species. The eastern spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, an important outbreaking insect defoliator in North America, mainly feeds on balsam fir, Abies balsamea, which has historically been well synchronized with the insect. But as climate change pushes the northern range limit of the budworm further north into the boreal forest, the highly valuable black spruce, Picea mariana, historically protected against the budworm by its late budburst phenology, is suffering increased defoliation during the current outbreak. We tested the hypothesis that rising temperatures can lead, not to a mismatch, but to an improved match between the budworm and black spruce through differential phenological advancement. For 3years, eastern spruce budworm larvae were reared from instar 2 to pupae, on both black spruce and balsam fir, in a temperature free-air controlled enhancement experiment (T-FACE) consisting in 24 field plots, half of which were heated at +2°C from March to October. Our results show that every year, larval development was faster on heated trees and pupation was earlier than on unheated trees. Bud development was also accelerated in heated trees of both species. However, there was no difference in mass between pupae that developed at +2°C and controls at the end of the season. Finally, we found no difference either in development rate or pupal mass between larvae reared on black spruce and those reared on balsam fir. This suggests that under higher temperature regimes, eastern spruce budworm will be as successful on black spruce as on balsam fir, as black spruce budburst becomes better synchronized with the insect's emergence from diapause. This could lead to critical changes in outbreak dynamics and severity with important ecological state shifts at the landscape level.

Macroevolutionary history predicts flowering time but not phenological sensitivity to temperature in grasses.

Long-term observations show that flowering phenology has shifted in many lineages in response to climate change. However, it remains unclear whether these results can be generalized to predict the presence, direction, or magnitude of responses in lineages for which we lack long time-series data. If phenological responses are phylogenetically conserved, we can extrapolate from species for which we have data to predict the responses of close relatives. While several studies have found that closely related species flower at similar times, fewer have evaluated whether phylogenetically proximal species respond to environmental change similarly. We paired flowering time data from 3161 manually scored herbarium specimens of 72 species of grasses (Poaceae) with historical climate data and analyzed the phylogenetic signal and phylogenetic half-life of phenological sensitivity. We also ran these analyses on a subset of species showing statistically significant sensitivities, in order to assess the role of sampling bias on phylogenetic signal. Closely related grass species tend to flower at similar times, but flowering times respond to temperature changes in species-specific ways. We also show that only including species for which there is strong evidence of phenological shifts results in overestimating phylogenetic signal. In agreement with other recent studies, our results suggest caution in extrapolating from evidence of phylogenetic similarity to predicting shared responses in this ecologically relevant trait. Future work is needed to better understand the discrepancy between the phylogenetic signal in observed phenological shifts and absence of such signal in sensitivity.

Shifting Patterns of Summer Lake Color Phenology in Over 26,000 US Lakes.

Lakes are often defined by seasonal cycles. The seasonal timing, or phenology, of many lake processes are changing in response to human activities. However, long‐term records exist for few lakes, and extrapolating patterns observed in these lakes to entire landscapes is exceedingly difficult using the limited number of available in situ observations. Limited landscape‐level observations mean we do not know how common shifts in lake phenology are at macroscales. Here, we use a new remote sensing data set, LimnoSat‐US, to analyze U.S. summer lake color phenology between 1984 and 2020 across more than 26,000 lakes. Our results show that summer lake color seasonality can be generalized into five distinct phenology groups that follow well‐known patterns of phytoplankton succession. The frequency with which lakes transition from one phenology group to another is tied to lake and landscape level characteristics. Lakes with high inflows and low variation in their seasonal surface area are generally more stable, while lakes in areas with high interannual variations in climate and catchment population density show less stability. Our results reveal previously unexamined spatiotemporal patterns in lake seasonality and demonstrate the utility of LimnoSat‐US, which, with over 22 million remote sensing observations of lakes, creates novel opportunities to examine changing lake ecosystems at a national scale.

Migratory strategy drives species-level variation in bird sensitivity to vegetation green-up.

Animals and plants are shifting the timing of key life events in response to climate change, yet despite recent documentation of escalating phenological change, scientists lack a full understanding of how and why phenological responses vary across space and among species. Here, we used over 7 million community-contributed bird observations to derive species-specific, spatially explicit estimates of annual spring migration phenology for 56 bird species across eastern North America. We show that changes in the spring arrival of migratory birds are coarsely synchronized with fluctuations in vegetation green-up and that the sensitivity of birds to plant phenology varied extensively. Bird arrival responded more synchronously with vegetation green-up at higher latitudes, where phenological shifts over time are also greater. Critically, species' migratory traits explained variation in sensitivity to green-up, with species that migrate more slowly, arrive earlier and overwinter further north showing greater responsiveness to earlier springs. Identifying how and why species vary in their ability to shift phenological events is fundamental to predicting species' vulnerability to climate change. Such variation in sensitivity across taxa, with long-distance neotropical migrants exhibiting reduced synchrony, may help to explain substantial declines in these species over the last several decades.

Phenological and elevational shifts of plants, animals and fungi under climate change in the European Alps.

Mountain areas are biodiversity hotspots and provide a multitude of ecosystem services of irreplaceable socio-economic value. In the European Alps, air temperature has increased at a rate of about 0.36°C decade-1 since 1970, leading to glacier retreat and significant snowpack reduction. Due to these rapid environmental changes, this mountainous region is undergoing marked changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution of animals, plants and fungi. Long-term monitoring in the European Alps offers an excellent natural laboratory to synthetize climate-related changes in spring phenology and elevational distribution for a large array of taxonomic groups. This review assesses the climatic changes that have occurred across the European Alps during recent decades, spring phenological changes and upslope shifts of plants, animals and fungi from evidence in published papers and previously unpublished data. Our review provides evidence that spring phenology has been shifting earlier during the past four decades and distribution ranges show an upwards trend for most of the taxonomic groups for which there are sufficient data. The first observed activity of reptiles and terrestrial insects (e.g. butterflies) in spring has shifted significantly earlier, at an average rate of -5.7 and -6.0 days decade-1 , respectively. By contrast, the first observed spring activity of semi-aquatic insects (e.g. dragonflies and damselflies) and amphibians, as well as the singing activity or laying dates of resident birds, show smaller non-significant trends ranging from -1.0 to +1.3 days decade-1 . Leaf-out and flowering of woody and herbaceous plants showed intermediate trends with mean values of -2.4 and -2.8 days decade-1 , respectively. Regarding species distribution, plants, animals and fungi (N= 2133 species) shifted the elevation of maximum abundance (optimum elevation) upslope at a similar pace (on average between +18 and +25m decade-1 ) but with substantial differences among taxa. For example, the optimum elevation shifted upward by +36.2m decade-1 for terrestrial insects and +32.7m decade-1 for woody plants, whereas it was estimated to range between -1.0 and +11m decade-1 for semi-aquatic insects, ferns, birds and wood-decaying fungi. The upper range limit (leading edge) of most species also shifted upslope with a rate clearly higher for animals (from +47 to +91m decade-1 ) than for plants (from +17 to +40m decade-1 ), except for semi-aquatic insects (-4.7m decade-1 ). Although regional land-use changes could partly explain some trends, the consistent upward shift found in almost all taxa all over the Alps is likely reflecting the strong warming and the receding of snow cover that has taken place across the European Alps over recent decades. However, with the possible exception of terrestrial insects, the upward shift of organisms seems currently too slow to track the pace of isotherm shifts induced by climate warming, estimated at about +62 to +71m decade-1 since 1970. In the light of these results, species interactions are likely to change over multiple trophic levels through phenological and spatial mismatches. This nascent research field deserves greater attention to allow us to anticipate structural and functional changes better at the ecosystem level.

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

Phenological responses of the Arctic, ubiquitous, and boreal copepod species to long-term changes in the annual seasonality of the water temperature in the White Sea

The process of climate change by which global temperatures increase and seasonal shifts occur is more pronounced at higher latitudes. These changes induce shifts in the phenology of biota, including zooplankton. Regression analysis revealed significant advance of the spring–summer water warming in the sub-Arctic White Sea (Chupa Inlet, Kandalaksha Bay), which occurs 3 weeks earlier in the last decade compared with 1961. The shift of timing of phenological events of Calanus glacialis, Pseudocalanus spp., Microsetella norvegica, Oithona similis, Acartia spp., Centropages hamatus, and Temora longicornis is particularly pronounced. These shifts were accompanied by a significant increase in Calanus and Microsetella abundance with an observed decrease in Acartia abundance. No correlation between population abundance and year-to-year changes in the species phenology was determined. We propose hypotheses to explain species adaptation to these phenological shifts in the ecosystem: (1) flexibility of life cycle of planktonic copepods, which ensures synchronization of life cycle phases with key events in the environment; and (2) copepod ability to switch to carnivory when algal sources are scarce. Interspecific interactions between ubiquitous species influenced their phenology and abundance, while early development of Microsetella caused later development of Oithona and higher abundance of the latter. We speculate that competition for food resources is a driving factor in the interactions, since the trophic niches of these species overlap.

Increasing temperature shortened the carbon uptake period and decreased the cumulative net ecosystem productivity in a maize cropland in Northeast China

• Carbon uptake period (CUP) was mainly determined by the end date of CUP in autumn. • NEP max explained greater interannual variation in cumulative NEP than CUP. • Both start and end dates of CUP were advanced with increasing winter temperature. • NEP max decreased with increasing precipitation in summer and autumn. • CUP tended to shorten with increasing temperature, thus decreasing cumulative NEP. Phenology—mainly associated with climatic factors—is crucial for the accurate estimation of cumulative annual carbon exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. However, the effects of changes in phenology on annual vegetation productivity and its regulatory mechanisms remain unclear, particularly in agricultural ecosystems. Therefore, in this study, we examined the associations among cumulative net ecosystem productivity (NEP), phenological metrics, and climatic factors based on long-term (2005–2014) eddy covariance flux and meteorological observations in a maize cropland in Northeast China. The results showed that carbon uptake period (CUP) was mainly determined by the end date of CUP (ECUP) in autumn. Cumulative NEP from May to September (NEP 5−9 ), a period generally corresponding to the growing season, significantly increased with NEP max (defined in this study as the 90th percentile of daily NEP during CUP) and CUP. NEP max explained greater interannual variation in NEP 5−9 than CUP. The start date of CUP (SCUP) and ECUP were both advanced with increasing winter temperature, but ECUP was more temperature-sensitive than SCUP. Thus, CUP tended to shorten with increasing temperature, ultimately decreasing cumulative NEP. In addition, NEP max decreased with increasing precipitation in summer and autumn. The Greenup and MidGreendown dates from the MODIS Global Vegetation Phenology (MCD12Q2) product generally captured the interannual variation in the carbon flux-based SCUP and ECUP, respectively, well. The results of this study would be of great significance for predicting the response of ecosystem productivity to plant phenology shifts in agricultural ecosystems in future climate change scenarios.

Quantitative Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Mycotoxins in Cereals: A Review.

Our climate is projected to change gradually over time. Mycotoxin occurrence in cereal grains is both directly and indirectly related to local weather and to climate changes. Direct routes are via the effects of precipitation, relative humidity, and temperatures on both fungal infection of the grain and mycotoxin formation. Indirect routes are via the effects of the wind dispersal of spores, insect attacks, and shifts in cereal grain phenology. This review aimed to investigate available modeling studies for climate change impacts on mycotoxins in cereal grains, and to identify how they can be used to safeguard food safety with future climate change. Using a systematic review approach, in total, 53 relevant papers from the period of 2005–2020 were retrieved. Only six of them focused on quantitative modeling of climate change impacts on mycotoxins, all in pre-harvest cereal grains. Although regional differences exist, the model results generally show an increase in mycotoxins in a changing climate. The models do not give an indication on how to adapt to climate change impacts. If available models were linked with land use and crop models, scenario analyses could be used for analyzing adaptation strategies to avoid high mycotoxin presence in cereal grains and to safeguard the safety of our feed and food.

Investigating the species-specific association between anuran calling phenology and air temperature

Climate change has been associated in phenological shifts for a variety of taxa. Amphibians, specifically the order Anura (frogs and toads), are considered particularly vulnerable due to their sensitivity to anthropogenic and environmental change. Previous research has documented shifts in the timing of anuran breeding that can be attributed, in part, to climate change, with potential implications for reproduction, survival, and development. This study aims to investigate how air temperature is associated with anuran calling phenology. I will examine the temporal trends in spring and summer air temperature in a lake in northern Ontario, Canada. and quantify seasonal patterns of calling anuran species using acoustic monitoring over a four-month period. I predict that there will be interspecific variation in peak calling associated with air temperature. Additionally, I expect to find asymmetrical association between air temperature and anuran species’ calling behaviour – wherein prolonged breeding species will have a larger optimal temperature range for calling compared to explosive breeding species. The findings of this research will aid in future conservation and provide insight for management strategies of anurans in Canada in response to anticipated climate warming.

Bowhead whales overwinter in the Amundsen Gulf and Eastern Beaufort Sea.

The bowhead whale is the only baleen whale endemic to the Arctic and is well adapted to this environment. Bowheads live near the polar ice edge for much of the year and although sea ice dynamics are not the only driver of their annual migratory movements, it likely plays a key role. Given the intrinsic variability of open water and ice, one might expect bowhead migratory plasticity to be high and linked to this proximate environmental factor. Here, through a network of underwater passive acoustic recorders, we document the first known occurrence of bowheads overwintering in what is normally their summer foraging grounds in the Amundsen Gulf and eastern Beaufort Sea. The underlying question is whether this is the leading edge of a phenological shift in a species' migratory behaviour in an environment undergoing dramatic shifts due to climate change.