Climate Regime Shift Research Articles

Enhancement of coccolithophorid blooms in the Bering Sea by recent environmental changes

Since 1997, ocean color satellite images have revealed large‐scale blooms of the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi in the eastern Bering Sea. The blooms are often sustained over several months and have caused ecosystem changes in the Arctic Ocean, as well as in the Bering Sea. We examined continental shelf sediment profiles of alkenone, a biomarker for E. huxleyi, covering the past ∼70 years. The alkenone records suggest that large E. huxleyi blooms are a novel feature in the Bering Sea as they have occurred only since the late 1970s. Recent changes in alkenone content were closely related to the 1976–77 climatic regime shift in the North Pacific, implying that warming and freshening of Bering Sea waters promoted E. huxleyi blooms. The production rate of diatoms (total valves in sediment samples), the dominant primary producers in the Bering Sea, also increased during the past several decades. However, the ratio of alkenone content to total diatom valves in the sediments increased as E. huxleyi production increased, suggesting that the increase in the E. huxleyi production rate frequently exceeded the increase in the diatom production rate. Overall, our results indicate a possible subarctic region ecosystem shift driven by climate change.

A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series.

Climate change and fluctuations of pelagic fish populations in the Far East region

Time series of ocean climate indices and catch records were used to identify the alternation patterns of pelagic fish populations in relation to climate regime shifts. During 1910-2008, an orderly alternation of dominant pelagic fish groups was observed in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC; Yellow Sea-East China Sea-East Sea/Japan Sea) and Kuroshio-Oyashio Current (KOC; Northwestern Pacific) regions. After the collapse of herring fishery in the late 1920s, the sardine (A group) dominated in the 1930s, 3 other species (C group; Pacific saury, jack mackerel, and anchovy) dominated in the 1950s-1960s, chub mackerel (B group) dominated in the 1970s, and then sardine (A group) dominated again during cool regime in the 1980s. As sardine biomass decreased in association with the climate regime shift that occurred in the late 1980s, catches of C group immediately increased after the regime shift and remained at high levels during warm regime in the 1990s. Alternations of dominant fish groups occurred 6 times between 1910 and 2008. The dominant period of the 7 species lasted for 10-20 years. The catch of Pacific sardine in the TWC and KOC regions showed a negative correlation with the catch of the other 5 species (Pacific herring, anchovy, jack mackerel, Pacific saury, and common squid), suggesting that the abundance of the 5 species is strongly affected by the abundance of Pacific sardine in relation to the climate regime shifts. The total catch level of the 7 species in the KOC region was generally higher than that in the TWC region before 1991 but was lower after 1992, suggesting that the fish populations in the Pacific side are shifted to the TWC region by zonal oscillation of the oceanic conditions in relation to the climate regime shift in the late 1980s.

Climate induced changes in benthic macrofauna—A non-linear model approach

The non-linear methods “optimally pruned extreme learning machine” (OPELM) and “optimally pruned k-nearest neighbours” (OPKNN) are applied to relate various climate indices to time series of biomass, abundance and species number of benthic macrofauna communities in the southern North Sea for the period 1978–2005. The results of these methods show that the performance in forecasting macrofauna communities is as poor as linear statistical downscaling if only one climate index is used as a predictor. If a multivariate predictor is used, OPKNN shows a good forecast for biomass and species number, but not for abundance. The improvement of the forecast is of major relevance especially in the presence of biological and climate regime shifts which occurred in the considered period.

Regime shift in groundwater temperature triggered by the Arctic Oscillation

[1] Groundwater is the world's most important source of raw drinking water. However, the potential impact of climate change on this vital resource is unclear because of a lack of relevant long-term data. Here we statistically analyze over 20 years of groundwater temperature data from five Swiss aquifers fed predominantly by river-bank infiltration. The results reveal an abrupt increase in annual mean groundwater temperature centered on 1987–1988 that can also be observed in air and river temperatures. We associate this temperature increase with the Northern Hemisphere late 1980s climate regime shift (CRS), which itself is related to an abrupt change in the behavior of the Arctic Oscillation. Because temperature affects redox conditions in groundwater, groundwater biogeochemistry in aquifers fed by river-bank infiltration is likely to depend on large-scale climatic forcing and will be affected by climate change.

The influence of ENSO on winter rainfall in South Africa

AbstractWhereas the impact of ENSO on the African summer rainfall regions is largely documented and still regularly investigated, little is known about its impact on the winter rainfall regions located at the southwestern and northwestern tips of Africa. Yet, these regions are densely inhabited and are net exporters of high‐quality agricultural products. Here we analyze the relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and South Africa austral winter rainfall using a 682 raingauges daily rainfall database documenting the period 1950–1999. The May, June and July (MJJ) seasonal rainfall amount shows a positive correlation with the Niño3.4 index that becomes significant since the so‐called 1976/1977 climate regime shift. Wet spells properties (length, frequency and intensity) at the raingauge scale indicate that high (low) MJJ seasonal rainfall amounts recorded during El Niño (La Niña) events are the result of longer (shorter) wet spells in the Cape Town area and more (less) frequent wet spells north of 33°S. Wet spells with daily rainfall amounts ranging between 10 and 50 mm are also more (less) frequent. Atmospheric dynamics fields during wet spells feature lower (higher) pressure and northwesterly (southerly) wind anomalies in the troposphere over the region. This suggests that rain‐bearing systems are deeper (thinner) and larger (smaller) in extent, and located farther north (south) during El Niño (La Niña) events. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Changes in Dogger Bank macrofauna communities in the 20th century caused by fishing and climate

The macrofauna communities on the Dogger Bank (North Sea) from the 1920s, the 1950s and the 1980s to the 2000s were compared and identified five communities with similar spatial distribution throughout the 20th century. The abundance of dominant species in the five communities varied with time. Most obvious in the 1950s was the loss of the extensive Spisula and Mactra patches, which covered most of the shallow parts of the Bank in the 1920s. Since the 1980s, they have been found only as juveniles. The biological regime shift in the late 1980s caused an increase in macrofauna abundance, species numbers, diversity and southern species in most of the communities. The climate regime shift in 2001 had opposite effects in which the abundance, species numbers, diversity and southern species decreased in most of the communities. The increase in interface-feeding species and the decrease in sand-licking amphipods in the 2000s especially in the shallow Bank Community give evidence for climate driven changes in water masses, currents, storms, turbidity and food availability via planktonic or benthic primary production. Both fishing impact and climate change are hypothesised as explaining the changes in the Dogger Bank macrofauna communities.

Robustness of SST teleconnections and precursory patterns associated with the Indian summer monsoon

This work attempts to reconcile in a common and comprehensive framework the various conflicting results found in the literature regarding Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall-Sea Surface Temperature (SST) relationships, especially the links with El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). To do so, we first examine the linear relationships between ISM rainfall and global SST anomalies during 1950–1976 and 1979–2006 periods. Our results highlight the existence of significant modulations in SST teleconnections and precursory patterns between the first (June–July, JJ) and second part (August–September, AS) of the monsoon. This JJ–AS rainfall dichotomy is more pronounced after the 1976–1977 climate regime shift and tends to blur the global ISM-ENSO signal during the recent period, leading to an apparent weakening of this relationship at the seasonal time scale. Although ISM rainfall in JJ and AS is still strongly linked to ENSO over both periods, the lead-lag relationships between ENSO and AS Indian rainfall have changed during recent decades. Indeed, ENSO variability in the preceding boreal winter has now a significant impact on rainfall variability during the second half of ISM. To evaluate in more details the impact of this JJ-AS dichotomy on the ISM-ENSO-IOD relationships, ISM correlations are also examined separately during El Nino and La Nina years. Results indicate that the early onset of El Nino during boreal spring causes deficient monsoon rainfall in JJ. In response to weaker monsoon winds, warm SST anomalies appear in the west equatorial IO, generating favorable conditions for the development of a positive IOD in AS. Local air-sea processes triggered by the SST anomalies in the eastern node of IOD seem, in turn, to have a more active role on AS rainfall variability, as they may counteract the negative effect of El Nino on ISM rainfall via a modulation of the local Hadley circulation in the eastern IO. The JJ–AS rainfall dichotomy and its recent amplification may then result from an enhancement of these IO feedbacks during recent El Nino years. This explains why, although El Nino events are stronger, a weakening of the ISM-ENSO relationship is observed at the seasonal scale after 1979. Results during La Nina years are consistent with this hypothesis although local processes in the southeast IO now play a more prominent role and act to further modulate ISM rainfall in AS. Finally, our results highlight the existence of a biennal rhythm of the IOD-ENSO-ISM system during the recent period, according to which co-occurring El Nino and positive IOD events tend to be followed by a warming of the IO, a wet ISM during summer and, finally, a La Nina event during the following boreal winter.

Decadal Shifts of the Kuroshio Extension Jet: Application of Thin-Jet Theory*

Abstract Meridional shifts of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) jet on decadal time scales are examined using a 1960–2004 hindcast simulation of an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model for the Earth Simulator (OFES). The leading mode of the simulated KE represents the meridional shifts of the jet on decadal time scales with the largest southward shift in the early 1980s associated with the climate regime shift in 1976/77, a result confirmed with subsurface temperature observations. The meridional shifts originate east of the date line and propagate westward along the mean jet axis, a trajectory inconsistent with the traditionally used linear long Rossby waves linearized in Cartesian coordinates, although the phase speed is comparable to that in the traditional framework. The zonal scale of these westward propagation signals is about 4000 km and much larger than their meridional scale. To understand the mechanism for the westward propagation of the KE jet shifts, the authors consider the limit of a thin jet. This dynamic framework describes the temporal evolution of the location of a sharp potential vorticity front under the assumption that variations along the jet are small compared to variations normal to the jet in natural coordinates and is well suited to the strong jet and potential vorticity gradients of the KE. For scaling appropriate to the decadal adjustments in the KE, the thin-jet model successfully reproduces the westward propagations and decadal shifts of the jet latitude simulated in OFES. These results give a physical basis for the prediction of decadal variability in the KE.

Miocene ocean circulation inferred from marine carbon cycle modeling combined with benthic isotope records

In a modeling sensitivity study we investigate the evolution of the ocean circulation and of marine carbon isotope (δ13C) records during the Miocene (about 23–5 million years ago). For this purpose we ran an ocean‐circulation carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity (Large Scale Geostrophic– Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle Model, version 2s) exploring various seaway configurations. Our investigations confirm that the Central American Seaway played a decisive role in the history of the Miocene ocean circulation. In simulations with a deep Central American Seaway (depth range 1–3 km), typical for the early to middle Miocene, deep water production in the North Atlantic is absent or weak, while the meridional overturning circulation is dominated by water mass formation in the Southern Ocean. Deep water formation in the North Atlantic begins when the Central American Seaway shoals to a few hundreds of meters, which is typical for the late Miocene. Our results do not support ideas that the mid‐Miocene closing of the Eastern Tethys contributed to Antarctic glaciation. On the other hand, we find some water exchange between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic via the Eastern Tethys during the early Miocene. Our model results for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and for Atlantic δ13C during the late Miocene are largely independent from depth variations of the Greenland‐Scotland Ridge. To a large extent, the evolution of Miocene deep‐sea δ13C records can be explained with large‐scale ocean circulation changes. Our model‐data comparison for the middle and early Miocene suggests that during the early Neogene the seaway effect on benthic δ13C may have been superimposed by further factors such as climate regime shifts and/or terrestrial carbon cycle changes.

Abrupt atmospheric torque changes and their role in the 1976–1977 climate regime shift

[1] During the climate regime/Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase shift of 1976–1977, changes of up to several Hadleys occurred in the friction, mountain, and gravity wave torques that maintain the axial angular momentum (AAM) balance of the atmosphere. As required to produce a substantially different but stable climate regime, however, the total torque showed little net change (0.2 Hadley), while the AAM showed a modest increase, between the pretransition and posttransition periods in our data (1968–1975 and 1978–1997). The east-to-west transfer of atmospheric mass that occurs during the cold-to-warm phase shift of the PDO produced positive mountain torque anomalies on the atmosphere resulting from lower (higher) surface pressure to the west (east) of the Andes and Rockies (Himalayas), which were largely compensated by negative friction torque anomalies generated over the equatorial Pacific. The timing of events during the 1976–1977 transition window suggests that changes in low-latitude (Pacific friction and Andes mountains) torques and the PDO index in early to mid-1976 preceded changes in the extratropical torques during 1977, consistent with the poleward propagation of atmospheric zonal flow anomalies documented in previous studies. An increase in the global mean surface temperature and its rate of rise after the regime shift suggest that the negative friction torque anomalies that developed during the transition may have acted to sustain the warmer posttransition regime by suppressing cold-water upwelling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and/or equatorial thermocline heat content recharge processes in the central and western Pacific.

Interannual-decadal variability of demersal fish assemblages in the Tsushima Warm Current region of the Japan Sea: Impacts of climate regime shifts and trawl fisheries with implications for ecosystem-based management

Data sets for two bottom trawl fisheries, the coastal pair-trawler fishery and offshore single-trawler fishery in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) region of the Japan Sea, were compiled and analyzed for the last three decades (1974–2006). These data sets were used to (1) identify and compare the variability in demersal fish assemblages, and (2) relate these to water temperature to examine the impacts of climate regime shifts. Principal component analysis (PCA) of catches of target species in the two trawler fisheries showed synchronous decadal variability with step changes around 1986/1987 and 1996/1997. These step changes strongly suggest the effect of the late 1980s climate regime shift, which was characterized by an abrupt change from a cool to a warm condition in the TWC. The first and second principal components (PC1 and PC2) for both trawler fisheries agreed closely with winter and summer water temperature in the Japan Sea, respectively, suggesting PC1 (PC2) was associated with cold- (warm-) water species. However, between warm- and cold-water species the response pattern to water temperature was different. CPUE (catch per unit effort) of warm- (cold-) water species correlated positively (negatively) with water temperature, indicating the increase in water temperature has a positive (negative) effect on warm- (cold-) water species. Cold-water species decreased (increased) both in biomass and distribution during the warm (cold) regime, while warm-water species increased in biomass and/or distribution during the warm 1990s. These results suggested that the demersal fish assemblage structure changed abruptly as a consequence of the late 1980s climate regime shift. Impact of fishing was unclear on the demersal fish assemblage as a whole, but fishing pressure has been intensified for specific species under unfavorable climate regimes even with a declining fishing effort. Differing response patterns between warm- and cold-water species to climate regime shifts suggest the importance of integrated assessment and ecosystem-based management for the whole trawl fishery rather than only for individual target species.

Decadal Shifts of the Kuroshio Extension Jet: Application of Thin-Jet Theory*

AbstractMeridional shifts of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) jet on decadal time scales are examined using a 1960–2004 hindcast simulation of an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model for the Earth Simulator (OFES). The leading mode of the simulated KE represents the meridional shifts of the jet on decadal time scales with the largest southward shift in the early 1980s associated with the climate regime shift in 1976/77, a result confirmed with subsurface temperature observations. The meridional shifts originate east of the date line and propagate westward along the mean jet axis, a trajectory inconsistent with the traditionally used linear long Rossby waves linearized in Cartesian coordinates, although the phase speed is comparable to that in the traditional framework. The zonal scale of these westward propagation signals is about 4000 km and much larger than their meridional scale. To understand the mechanism for the westward propagation of the KE jet shifts, the authors consider the limit of a thin...

Evaluation of global continental hydrology as simulated by the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

Abstract. Global freshwater resources are sensitive to changes in climate, land cover and population density and distribution. The Land-surface Processes and eXchanges Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is a recent development of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model with improved representation of fire-vegetation interactions. It allows simultaneous consideration of the effects of changes in climate, CO2 concentration, natural vegetation and fire regime shifts on the continental hydrological cycle. Here the model is assessed for its ability to simulate large-scale spatial and temporal runoff patterns, in order to test its suitability for modelling future global water resources. Comparisons are made against observations of streamflow and a composite dataset of modelled and observed runoff (1986–1995) and are also evaluated against soil moisture data and the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The model captures the main features of the geographical distribution of global runoff, but tends to overestimate runoff in much of the Northern Hemisphere (where this can be somewhat accounted for by freshwater consumption and the unrealistic accumulation of the simulated winter snowpack in permafrost regions) and the southern tropics. Interannual variability is represented reasonably well at the large catchment scale, as are seasonal flow timings and monthly high and low flow events. Further improvements to the simulation of intra-annual runoff might be achieved via the addition of river flow routing. Overestimates of runoff in some basins could likely be corrected by the inclusion of transmission losses and direct-channel evaporation.

Abrupt Climate Regime Shifts, Their Potential Forcing and Fisheries Impacts

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a logical chain of events can be established to explain the abrupt climatic regime shift changes in the Pacific that link the atmosphere to the ocean to fisheries impacts. The investigation endeavors to identify synchronous abrupt changes in a series of data sets to establish the feasibility of abrupt of climate change often referred to as regime shifts. The study begins by using biological (fish catch/stock) markers to mathematically identify the dates of abrupt change. The dates are confirmed by a literature search of parameters that also show abrupt changes on the same dates. Using the biological date markers of abrupt change, analyses are performed to demonstrate that the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, ecosystems and fisheries are a plausible approach to explaining abrupt climate change and its impacts.

Biological regime shifts and changes in predictability

[1] Time series of climate indices and of biomass, abundance, and species number of benthic macrofauna in the southern North Sea are related to each other to investigate the predictability of biological time series in presence of biological regime shifts in 1989/1990 and 2001/2002. The results indicate that a smooth biological regime shift occurred in 1989/1990 caused by positive climate feedback mechanisms. In this case, the benthic community structure remained predictable. In contrast, in 2001/2002 an abrupt biological regime shift caused by a climate regime shift occurred. Here became the biological time series inherently unpredictable.

Long‐term change in thermospheric temperature above Saint Santin

The 1966–1987 Saint Santin/Nançay incoherent scatter radar database is analyzed to determine long‐term trends beyond those associated with the “natural” variations of solar and magnetic activity, season, and time of day. Trends averaging some −3 K/yr are found in the F region. Positive trends in the E region may be explained by the subsidence of an overlying warmer regime of air. The trend line seems to change slope around the “breakpoint” year 1979, with the cooling changing from −0.8 K/yr before that time to −5.5 K/yr afterward at 350 km altitude. These trends greatly exceed those predicted by model simulations for increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Further, carbon dioxide shows no such breakpoint year, but ozone does, near the time of the change in thermospheric trend, and a surface climatic regime shift has also been reported near this time. It is not clear that greenhouse gases are driving the long‐term trend in thermospheric temperature. Restriction of analysis to a particular time of day results in greatly different trends, from near zero at midnight to −6 K/yr at noon at 350 km altitude. A separate analysis to determine the long‐term trend in the amplitude of the 24 h tide at 350 km altitude shows a large change, with the amplitude diminishing from 136 K in 1966 to 89 K in 1988. Our results show the great need to remove all other natural variations from long‐term data sets in determining long‐term trends to avoid great ambiguity in trend interpretation.

The response of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) in southern California to low‐frequency climate forcing

The nutrient climate on the inner shelf off southern California changed markedly across the 1976‐1977 North Pacific climate regime shift. With respect to giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) canopies off southern California, the nitrate climate shifted from relatively replete conditions prior to the regime shift to depleted conditions afterward, and the dynamics of 14 giant kelp forests appeared to change as a result. The response of giant kelp to nutrient‐replete years before the regime shift was dampened compared to their response afterward. The sensitivity of these kelp‐forest canopies to nutrient limitation appears to have increased since the regime shift. This intensification of physical control after 1977 is evident in the strong correlation of seawater density δ and M. pyrifera density. The linear fit of the percent of time the 25.1 δ t isopycnal bathes the inner shelf, accounted for ~ 71% of the variability in kelp density off Point Loma, and the median depth of this isopycnal has deepened ~ 5 m since the regime shift. The wave climate also intensified beginning in the early 1970s. The dampened kelp response prior to the regime shift was likely due to greater biological control of kelp canopies via consumer and competitive processes (i.e., biological modulation) or decreased physical control at possibly many trophic levels. Our results suggest that the response of kelp forests to El Niño Southern Oscillation events is mediated by lower frequency climate modes that may modulate the regulatory importance of biological and physical processes on giant kelp.

A new assessment of the mid-1970s abrupt atmospheric temperature change in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and associated solar forcing implications

Based on the reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) and solar radio irradiance (SRI) at 10.7 cm wavelength obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction center, the abrupt temperature change in the mid-1970s and its possible association with solar irradiance variability have been investigated. The results show that a discontinuous abrupt change in the mid-1970s in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis was observed in the tropical lower and middle stratospheric temperature. The shift in temperature and its timing agrees well with the climate regime shift discovered in the radiosonde observations (HadAT), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and many previous studies and manifests a statistically significant change at the 95% confidence level. A corresponding change of the SRI was identified in the mid 1970s although the statistical t test value is not very high. The running correlation with a 21-year moving time window exhibits a strong positive correlation between the solar cycle and atmospheric temperature in the tropical stratosphere during the period of 1948–2007. However, the positive correlation was broken at the time of the mid-1970s abrupt change and two peak positive correlation points were observed in 1972 and 1982, respectively.

Is there evidence for a shift in fish growth and recruitment success linked to climate change?

This study investigated whether a putative shift in climate regime in the North Atlantic in the 1990s coincided with changes in the growth and recruitment of roach Rutilus rutilus in the north-east of England. The relationships between R. rutilus growth and recruitment and the environment were significantly different before and after the putative shift in climate regime. Water temperature, river discharge, growth, recruitment success and the Gulf Stream Index co-varied until the late 1990s, indicating a gradual progression between periods of warm-and-dry and cold-and-wet summers. Since the late 1990s, there has been an increased prevalence of warm-and-wet summers, and recruitment success has oscillated between extremes on an almost annual basis. The north wall (northern boundary) of the Gulf Stream has been undergoing a displacement south since the late 1990s, and the speed and amplitude of the change appears to support the hypothesis that there was a regime shift in the climate of the North Atlantic Ocean. It is possible that a continued displacement south of the north wall of the Gulf Stream will lead to further increases in river discharge, reductions in water temperature and reduced fish growth and recruitment success in the long term.