Shifting Baseline Syndrome Research Articles

Contrasts in Social and Ecological Assessments of Coral Reef Health in Melanesia

Numerous studies have explored the “shifting baseline syndrome” (SBS), which suggests that individual perceptions of environmental health are formed by comparing the environment to a “baseline” from the past. Understanding social perceptions of environmental conditions, especially where they differ from ecological assessments, can help guide environmental management efforts. In this study we compared ecological assessments of coral reef health with perceptions of reef health from surveyed residents in five villages in Solomon Islands and Fiji. Comparative analysis suggests that respondents from Solomon Islands perceived their reefs as being degraded, yet based on ecological measurements actually had healthier reefs, while in Fiji fewer people perceived their reefs to be declining in health, yet ecological measurement showed them to be more degraded than Solomon Islands reefs. We found no evidence of baselines “shifting” relative to respondent age in this instance and suggest that these differential baselines and the inverse relationship between local perceptions and ecological measurements may be a result of: (1) differences in the rate of environmental change experienced at local scales; and (2) may also be related to differences in respondent perceptions of “quality of life” at each site. If the success of conservation approaches such as marine protected areas (MPAs) are dependent on local social consensus that natural resources are diminished or degraded, then tracking broader social indicators like “quality of life” and “rates of change” (real and perceived) alongside ecological assessments of environmental health may prove beneficial to conservation practitioners.

Historical Patterns of Resource Exploitation and the Status of Papua New Guinea Coral Reefs1

Understanding human drivers of exploitation within the context of historical baselines can assist in better management of natural resources. Retrospective studies provide insight into the scale, nature, and timing of human influence on reef ecosystems. Using Papua New Guinea as a model, we assessed human influences on the historical status of reef resources through time. Reef resources were divided into seven ecological guilds, assessed over seven cultural periods and in reference to seven types of human influences. Ranking of ecological status and human influence was performed based on extensive bibliographical research. Evidence for periods of sustainability and depletion were found throughout historical and modern periods. More recently, acceleration in the rate of resource depletion has occurred as a result of increasing pressure at unprecedented scales. Subsistence lifestyles are becoming unviable or unattractive since the introduction of the cash economy during colonial times. Current challenges such as providing livelihood options and sustaining replenishment rates of reef resources have arisen from a long history of overexploitation that preconditioned the current status of reef resources under an economic climate of increasing demand for these resources. Studies of past human exploitation of reef resources can help to overcome the shifting baseline syndrome for fisheries management in marine ecosystems and help characterize the scale and intensity of human drivers influencing resource exploitation.

Multi-Annual Fluctuations in Reconstructed Historical Time-Series of a European Lobster (Homarus gammarus) Population Disappear at Increased Exploitation Levels

Through the history of ecology, fluctuations of populations have been a dominating topic, and endogenous causes of fluctuations and oscillations have been recognized and studied for more than 80 years. Here we analyzed an historical dataset, covering more than 130 years, of European lobster (Homarus gammarus) catches. The data shows periodic fluctuations, which are first dampened and then disappear over time. The disappearance of the periodicity coincided with a substantial increase in fishing effort and the oscillations have not reappeared in the time series. The shifting baseline syndrome has changed our perception of not only the status of the stock, but also the regulating pressures. We describe the transition of a naturally regulated lobster population into a heavily exploited fisheries controlled stock. This is shown by the incorporation of environmental and endogenous processes in generalized additive models, autocorrelation functions and periodicity analyses of time-series.

Of Fur and Fins: Quantifying Fur Trade Era Fish Harvest to Assess Changes in Contemporary Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) Production at Lac La Biche, Alberta

The history of fisheries exploitation in Canada has significant ties to the development and westward expansion of the fur trade. Understanding the scale and nature of this relationship is important when assessing the developmental or evolutionary history of a system. This study uses estimates of human population size and subsistence lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) consumption to estimate annual fish harvest at Lac la Biche, Alberta(54o52'N, 112o05'W) during the fur trade era and to assess the magnitude and potential influence of historic harvest on contemporary harvest potential. Historic (1800-1911) lake whitefish harvest increased approximately 10-fold, from 74,000 kg in 1800 to 811,000 kg in 1875, immediately preceding a lake whitefish population collapse in 1878. Following the initiation of a formal commercial fishing industry, contemporary (1912-2009) harvest peaked at 424,000 kg, about one half the previous estimated maximum. The persistence of low contemporary harvest biomasses suggests a shift from a system of high- to low-lake whitefish productivity, likely resulting from decreasing ecosystem resilience with increasing harvest pressure. Knowledge of historic fish harvest can minimize the impacts of the shifting baseline syndrome by elucidating the magnitude and impacts of historic harvests on future harvest potential and potential production.

Do traditional fishers recognise reef fish species declines? Shifting environmental baselines in Eastern Brazil

AbstractLocal fisher knowledge is an important source of information for the adjustment of environmental baselines relative to anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems. This knowledge is also susceptible to the shifting baseline syndrome. Four generations of fishers neighbouring a marine park in Eastern Brazil, were surveyed regarding the conservation status of nine reef fish species. Shifts in environmental baselines were detected among fisher generations. Fishers older than 50 years not only caught larger individual fish, but catches of large fish occurred four decades ago, suggesting that bigger fish are in decline in the region. Of nine reef fish species, seven exhibited significant declining catch trends based on information provided by fishers. Such declining status was not reported by all informants of younger generations, so the ability to identify such species increases significantly with fisher age. The fish species most cited as overexploited were Mycteroperca bonaci (Poey), Epinephelus morio (Valenciennes) and Ocyurus chrysurus (Bloch), emphasising that special attention should be given to the management and conservation of these species in Eastern Brazil. These results also showed that knowledge acquired by elder fishers (> 50 years old) can provide valuable insights into the conservation status of reef fish and the adjustment of environmental baselines for proper management of a marine park.

Nature’s nocturnal services: Light pollution as a non-recognised challenge for ecosystem services research and management

Research focusing on ecosystem services has tackled several of the major drivers of environmental degradation, but it suffers from a blind spot related to light pollution. Light pollution caused by artificial night-time lighting is a global environmental change affecting terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems. The long-term effects of the disruption of the natural cycles of light and dark on ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services are largely unknown. Even though additional research is clearly needed, identifying, developing and implementing stringent management actions aimed at reducing inadequately installed, unnecessary or excessive lighting are well justified. This essay argues that management is hampered, because ecosystem services from nocturnal nature are increasingly underappreciated by the public due to shifting baseline syndrome, making most people accustomed to constantly illuminated and light-polluted night environments. Increased attention from scientists, managers and the public is needed in order to explicate the best options for preserving the benefits from natural darkness.

Human‐induced marine ecological degradation: micropaleontological perspectives

We analyzed published downcore microfossil records from 150 studies and reinterpreted them from an ecological degradation perspective to address the following critical but still imperfectly answered questions: (1) How is the timing of human-induced degradation of marine ecosystems different among regions? (2) What are the dominant causes of human-induced marine ecological degradation? (3) How can we better document natural variability and thereby avoid the problem of shifting baselines of comparison as degradation progresses over time? The results indicated that: (1) ecological degradation in marine systems began significantly earlier in Europe and North America (∼1800s) compared with Asia (post-1900) due to earlier industrialization in European and North American countries, (2) ecological degradation accelerated globally in the late 20th century due to post-World War II economic growth, (3) recovery from the degraded state in late 20th century following various restoration efforts and environmental regulations occurred only in limited localities. Although complex in detail, typical signs of ecological degradation were diversity decline, dramatic changes in total abundance, decrease in benthic and/or sensitive species, and increase in planktic, resistant, toxic, and/or introduced species. The predominant cause of degradation detected in these microfossil records was nutrient enrichment and the resulting symptoms of eutrophication, including hypoxia. Other causes also played considerable roles in some areas, including severe metal pollution around mining sites, water acidification by acidic wastewater, and salinity changes from construction of causeways, dikes, and channels, deforestation, and land clearance. Microfossils enable reconstruction of the ecological history of the past 102–103 years or even more, and, in conjunction with statistical modeling approaches using independent proxy records of climate and human-induced environmental changes, future research will enable workers to better address Shifting Baseline Syndrome and separate anthropogenic impacts from background natural variability.

Refugee species: which historic baseline should inform conservation planning?

AbstractUnderstanding species' historical ranges can provide important information for conservation planning in the face of environmental change. Cromsigt et al. (this issue) comment on our recent European bison (Bison bonasus) range reconstruction, suggesting that bison were already 8000 years ago a refugee species (i.e. restricted to marginal habitat due to past human pressure) and that species distribution models (SDM) are generally of limited use for refugee species conservation. While we welcome this discussion, we find no evidence for the claim that human pressure prior to 8000 BP determined where bison occurred. More importantly, as human pressure is generally high and increasing, attempts to restore species across their former range may fail where the factors that relegated species into refugee status are still at play or where their optimal habitat has vanished. Identifying areas where human pressure is low and where refugee species have persisted over the last millennia is crucial, and SDM based on historical data are important for doing so. Refugee species suffer from the shifting baseline syndrome, but careful reality checks are needed and all available data should be considered before determining the baseline that should inform conservation planning.

Shifting Baseline Syndrome as a Barrier to Ecological Restoration in the American Southwest

Shifting Baseline Syndrome as a Barrier to Ecological Restoration in the American Southwest

Shifting baselines and memory illusions: what should we worry about when inferring trends from resource user interviews?

Shifting baselines and memory illusions: what should we worry about when inferring trends from resource user interviews?

Rapidly Shifting Baselines in Yangtze Fishing Communities and Local Memory of Extinct Species

Local ecological knowledge can provide a unique source of data for conservation, especially in efforts to investigate the status of rare or possibly extinct species, but it is unlikely to remain constant over time. Loss of perspective about past ecological conditions caused by lack of communication between generations may create "shifting baseline syndrome," in which younger generations are less aware of local species diversity or abundance in the recent past. This phenomenon has been widely discussed, but has rarely been examined quantitatively. We present new evidence of shifting baselines in local perception of regional species declines and on the duration of "community memory" of extinct species on the basis of extensive interviews with fishers in communities across the middle-lower Yangtze basin. Many Yangtze species have experienced major declines in recent decades, and the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji (Lipotes vexillifer) and Yangtze paddlefish (Psephurus gladius) may have become extinct during the 21(st) century. Although informants across all age classes were strongly aware of the Yangtze ecosystem's escalating resource depletion and environmental degradation, older informants were more likely to recognize declines in two commercially important fish species, Reeves' shad (Tenualosa reevesii) and Yangtze pufferfish (Takifugu fasciatus), and to have encountered baiji and paddlefish in the past. Age was also a strong predictor of whether informants had even heard of baiji or paddlefish, with younger informants being substantially less likely to recognize either species. A marked decrease in local knowledge about the Yangtze freshwater megafauna matched the time of major population declines of these species from the 1970s onwards, and paddlefish were already unknown to over 70% of all informants below the age of 40 and to those who first started fishing after 1995. This rapid rate of cultural baseline shift suggests that once even megafaunal species cease to be encountered on a fairly regular basis, they are rapidly forgotten by local communities.

Deconstructing doctoral dissertations: how many papers does it take to make a PhD?

A collection of coauthored papers is the new norm for doctoral dissertations in the natural and biomedical sciences, yet there is no consensus on how to partition authorship credit between PhD candidates and their coauthors. Guidelines for PhD programs vary but tend to specify only a suggested range for the number of papers to be submitted for evaluation, sometimes supplemented with a requirement for the PhD candidate to be the principal author on the majority of submitted papers. Here I use harmonic counting to quantify the actual amount of authorship credit attributable to individual PhD graduates from two Scandinavian universities in 2008. Harmonic counting corrects for the inherent inflationary and equalizing biases of routine counting methods, thereby allowing the bibliometrically identifiable amount of authorship credit in approved dissertations to be analyzed with unprecedented accuracy. Unbiased partitioning of authorship credit between graduates and their coauthors provides a post hoc bibliometric measure of current PhD requirements, and sets a de facto baseline for the requisite scientific productivity of these contemporary PhD’s at a median value of approximately 1.6 undivided papers per dissertation. Comparison with previous census data suggests that the baseline has shifted over the past two decades as a result of a decrease in the number of submitted papers per candidate and an increase in the number of coauthors per paper. A simple solution to this shifting baseline syndrome would be to benchmark the amount of unbiased authorship credit deemed necessary for successful completion of a specific PhD program, and then monitor for departures from this level over time. Harmonic partitioning of authorship credit also facilitates cross-disciplinary and inter-institutional analysis of the scientific output from different PhD programs. Juxtaposing bibliometric benchmarks with current baselines may thus assist the development of harmonized guidelines and transparent transnational quality assurance procedures for doctoral programs by providing a robust and meaningful standard for further exploration of the causes of intra- and inter-institutional variation in the amount of unbiased authorship credit per dissertation.

Changes in frigate tuna populations on the south coast of Sri Lanka: evidence of the shifting baseline syndrome from analysis of fisher observations

Abstract This study examines changes in frigate tuna populations in southern Sri Lanka, based on reports from fishers in three age classes. Significantly higher values for best day's catch and largest specimen ever caught were obtained by older fishers than younger ones. Values were also significantly higher during early years, providing clear evidence of a decrease in the resource over time (1951–2007). Older fishers reported best catches further inshore and in shallower waters which, on becoming depleted, forced younger generations to fish in less exploited areas further offshore. Heavy harvesting is also evident from the significantly greater number of sites reported by older fishers as being depleted, compared with observations of younger fishers. These findings contrast markedly with catch and catch per effort patterns from statistics for frigate tuna and bullet tuna (combined) in southern Sri Lanka (1994–2004). No stock decline is evident, and at least one report in the early 1990s advocated increasing exploitation rates by 40% to maximize yields. Although not a primary research objective, fisher observations on frigate tuna populations were also analysed to help evaluate possible effects of the 2004 tsunami. Most fishers reported post‐tsunami decline, but mainly from a larger new generation of fishers, rather than extra boats provided by aid money or (direct or indirect) biophysical impacts from the tsunami. Reliance on fishery statistics, especially for mixed species and over a limited period, can be risky and easily mask true stock status. Evidence of harvesting effects on frigate tuna in southern Sri Lanka is evident using questionnaire data over a longer time scale. This study provides another compelling case of the ‘shifting baseline syndrome’, whereby fishers of different ages have altered perceptions/experiences of their environment. This may be its first reported occurrence in Sri Lanka. Traditional knowledge from this and similar surveys may provide national fishery management with valuable insights and help improve conservation prospects for frigate tuna and other marine resources. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evidence for shifting baseline syndrome in conservation

AbstractShifting baseline syndrome (SBS) is often referred to as a key issue for conservation, yet there is little evidence for its existence. The presence of SBS could influence the validity of participatory monitoring, local ecological knowledge, community based conservation, and conservation education. We outline two forms of SBS: (1) generational amnesia, where knowledge extinction occurs because younger generations are not aware of past biological conditions and (2) personal amnesia, where knowledge extinction occurs as individuals forget their own experience. Two conditions are essential to the identification of SBS: (1) biological change must be present in the system and (2) any perceived changes must be consistent with the biological data. If age or experience‐related differences in perception are then found, generational amnesia may be occurring. Alternately, if individuals believe current conditions also occurred in the past, personal amnesia may be occurring. Previous studies have not fully addressed these conditions, and hence cannot provide indisputable evidence for the existence of SBS. We present three case studies to examine these issues, which demonstrate both forms of SBS. Shifting baseline syndrome is no longer a cautionary tale, but instead is a real problem for those using human perceptions of change to inform conservation policy‐making or management.

Beyond Baselines: Rethinking Priorities for Ocean Conservation

Campbell, L. M., N. J. Gray, E. L. Hazen, and J. M. Shackeroff. 2009. Beyond baselines: rethinking priorities for ocean conservation. Ecology and Society 14(1): 14. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-02774-140114

Evidence for shifting baseline syndrome in conservation

Evidence for shifting baseline syndrome in conservation

Evidence of fishery depletions and shifting cognitive baselines in Eastern Indonesia

We analyzed fisher interview data collected in the Raja Ampat archipelago of Eastern Indonesia to demonstrate a perceived decline in the abundance of living marine resources targeted by commercial and artisanal fisheries. The decline appeared ubiquitous among all tested species and a clear trend emerged in which older fishers recall greater past abundance than younger fishers. This provides evidence for the shifting baseline syndrome, a dangerous cognitive condition in which each generation of fishery stakeholders accepts a lower standard of resource abundance as normal. We used a fuzzy expert system to standardize and quantify the anecdotal evidence, and combine it with additional depletion indicators to produce a decadal time series of resource abundance from 1970 to present. Using governmental catch-per-unit-effort data from more recent years we hindcasted to establish an absolute scale with which to interpret the perceived decline. The interview information suggested that some exploited species may have declined by as much as an order of magnitude since 1970.

Stretch Goals and Backcasting: Approaches for Overcoming Barriers to Large‐Scale Ecological Restoration

Abstract The destruction and transformation of ecosystems by humans threatens biodiversity, ecosystem function, and vital ecosystem services. Ecological repair of ecosystems will be a major challenge over the next century and beyond. Restoration efforts to date have frequently been ad hoc, and site or situation specific. Although such small‐scale efforts are vitally important, without large‐scale visions and coordination, it is unlikely that large functioning ecosystems will ever be constructed by chance through the cumulative effects of small‐scale projects. Although the problems of human‐induced environmental degradation and the need for a solution are widely recognized, these issues have rarely been addressed on a sufficiently large‐scale basis. There are numerous barriers that prevent large‐scale ecological restoration projects from being proposed, initiated, or carried through. Common barriers include the “shifting baseline syndrome,” the scale and complexity of restoration, the long‐term and open‐ended nature of restoration, funding challenges, and preemptive constraint of vision. Two potentially useful approaches that could help overcome these barriers are stretch goals and backcasting. Stretch goals are ambitious long‐term goals used to inspire creativity and innovation to achieve outcomes that currently seem impossible. Backcasting is a technique where a desired end point is visualized, and then a pathway to that end point is worked out retrospectively. A case study from the Scottish Highlands is used to illustrate how stretch goals and backcasting could facilitate large‐scale restoration. The combination of these approaches offers ways to evaluate and shape options for the future of ecosystems, rather than accepting that future ecosystems are victims of past and present political realities.

Management preferences of urban anglers

Abstract In sustainable inland fisheries management, the principle of ecosystem-based management encompasses a shift from single-species management driven by stocking towards a systems view characterized mainly by habitat rehabilitation. It is not clear whether anglers are aware of this paradigm shift. Thus, in a mail survey of anglers living in Berlin, Germany, we assumed that the majority of anglers perceive habitat rehabilitation to be the most beneficial action for improving recreational fisheries. Based on the answer pattern to an open-ended question, this hypothesis was rejected. The respondents suggested dimensions such as price, stocking, access, and enforcement considerably more frequently than measures to rehabilitate habitats. One explanation might be that anglers experience a shifting baseline syndrome as suggested earlier for fisheries scientists. If this syndrome applies on a larger scale, this has implications for long-term performance of ecosystem-based recreational fisheries management be...

Apostrophe to the Ocean

Apostrophe to the Ocean