Regime Shifts Research Articles

Exploring capelin (Mallotus villosus) population dynamics using Empirical Dynamic Modelling (EDM)

Capelin (Mallotus villosus) populations on the Newfoundland shelf collapsed in the early 1990s, coinciding with a regime shift and greatly reduced capelin and groundfish biomasses which both persist to this day. The biphasic nature of this stock’s history suggest it may experience nonlinear dynamics, which are difficult to predict using linear models. This study explores the application of Empirical Dynamic Modelling (EDM) nonlinear, nonparametric time series forecasting tools to capelin biomass data, seeking to detect nonlinear dynamics, compare performance of linear and nonlinear multivariate predictive models, identify drivers of capelin biomass using convergent cross-mapping, and measure the sign and strength of capelin species interactions. We found capelin dynamics were nonlinear, and multivariate EDM predictive models returned equal or improved model diagnostics to linear models in most situations. We identified long-term climate dynamics and timing of sea ice retreat as the primary drivers of capelin dynamics, but some indications of potential top-down effects from Greenland halibut were also detected. Atlantic cod biomass, and capelin catch were investigated as potential drivers of capelin dynamics, but both were found more likely to be driven by capelin dynamics. Overall, our results support the idea that capelin dynamics are mostly bottom-up driven, and that capelin itself is a driver of its predators, suggesting that the overall ecosystem may be largely bottom-up driven. This study also clearly identifies the utilities of EDM as a complementary tool for stock assessments by detecting and forecasting nonlinear stock dynamics, and identifying and characterizing relationships between stock biomass and the factors which drive it.

Impacts of regime shift on the fishery ecosystem in the coastal area of Kyoto prefecture, Sea of Japan, assessed using the Ecopath model

Impacts of regime shift on the fishery ecosystem in the coastal area of Kyoto prefecture, Sea of Japan, assessed using the Ecopath model

Impact of copper sulphate treatment on cyanobacterial blooms and subsequent water quality risks

Control of algal blooms and associated biologically-induced water quality risks in drinking reservoirs is problematic. Copper sulphate (CuSO4) treatment is one intervention that has been utilised for >100 years. Evidence indicates a favourable short-term reduction in Cyanobacterial biomass (e.g. bloom termination), but here we indicate that it may also increase longer-term water quality risk. In 2022, we investigated the impacts of CuSO4 spraying on Cyanobacterial communities and nutrient levels within a drinking water supply reservoir using environmental DNA (eDNA) to assess community shifts, alongside monitoring nutrient fractions, orthophosphate (OP) and total phosphate (TP), post-treatment. CuSO4 application successfully reduced Cyanobacterial abundance, however elimination of Cyanobacteria resulted in a shift in bacterial dominance favouring Planctomycetota throughout the summer and a combination of Actinobacteriota and Verrucomicrobiota, throughout autumn. As Cyanobacterial abundance recovered post-treatment, Cyanobacterial genera demonstrated greater diversity compared to only three Cyanobacterial genera present across samples pre-treatment, and included taxa associated with water quality risk (e.g. taste and odour (T&O) metabolite and toxin producers). The increase in Cyanobacteria post-treatment was attributed to an increase in biologically available nutrients, primarily a significant increase in OP. Overall, findings suggest that the significant shift in biodiversity likely induces a less stable ecosystem with greater plasticity of response to changing environmental and biogeochemical variables. Legacy implications of CuSO4 spraying, in terms of shifts in ecosystem and nutrient balance over time, may have implications for drinking water quality, but importantly also for reservoir management options. As such, the effects of CuSO4 spraying should be considered carefully before consideration as a contender for in-reservoir biological control.

Pre-marital homeownership as self-protection against divorce risks: Evidence from China's property division regime change

This paper examines the effect of uninsurable divorce risks on individuals' pre-marital homeownership by using an exogenous shift of the property division regime upon divorce from an equal-division regime to a title-based regime in China. This shift in 2011 aimed at protecting individuals' pre-marital assets, leading singles who worry about divorce risks to purchase a home prior to marriage. We find that singles' probability of owning a house prior to marriage increases by 3.2% in response to a one standard deviation increase in the divorce rate of their residing provinces. This effect is greater for female singles and singles above 30. Furthermore, the effect is stronger for singles with higher incomes, and singles living in the province with higher house prices. The empirical patterns are consistent with singles adopting pre-marital housing as a self-protection mechanism if they perceive great divorce risks after the regime shift in 2011. Our results provide important implications that housing serves not only as a durable consumption or an investment, but also as a self-protection mechanism against uninsurable divorce risks.

Leading the Lorenz 63 system toward the prescribed regime by model predictive control coupled with data assimilation

Abstract. Recently, concerns have been growing about the intensification and increase in extreme weather events, including torrential rainfall and typhoons. For mitigating the damage caused by weather-induced disasters, recent studies have started developing weather control technologies to lead the weather to a desirable direction with feasible manipulations. This study proposes introducing the model predictive control (MPC), an advanced control method explored in control engineering, into the framework of the control simulation experiment (CSE). In contrast to previous CSE studies, the proposed method explicitly considers physical constraints, such as the maximum allowable manipulations, within the cost function of the MPC. As the first step toward applying the MPC to real weather control, this study performed a series of MPC experiments with the Lorenz 63 model. Our results showed that the Lorenz 63 system can be led to the positive regime with control inputs determined by the MPC. Furthermore, the MPC significantly reduced necessary forecast length compared to earlier CSE studies. It was beneficial to select a member that showed a larger regime shift for the initial state when dealing with uncertainty in initial states.

Towards sustainable automobile ecosystem in India: Integrated analysis of technical, economic, and ESG dimensions

Global environmental concerns are leading to paradigm shift in the automobile eco-system. This comprehensive study of the automobile ecosystem, incorporates technical, economic, and environmental-social-governance (ESG) dimensions. An “integrated multi-criteria decision-making” (MCDM) methodology using “interpretive structural modelling” (ISM) and “fuzzy analytical hierarchy process” (FAHP) is deployed, The ISM models highlights prominent drivers and critical barriers, establishes their hierarchy, and depicts interrelationships. The FAHP rankings for drivers favours electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel vehicles over others, while barriers promote hybrids and alternate fuels like Biofuel, CNG/LNG. Unlike previous works, this study considers all eco-system factors, both critical drivers and barriers, and demonstrates hierarchy using a unique V-model. This is an innovative extension of V-model from traditional systems engineering to strategic project management domain. This holistic approach, in sync with the natural state of things, will enable government, industry, and academia in formulating a strategic framework towards future automobile sustainability.

Modelling Mixed-Frequency Time Series with Structural Change

AbstractPredictive ability of time series models is easily compromised in the presence of structural breaks, common among financial and economic variables amidst market shocks and policy regime shifts. We address this problem by estimating a semiparametric mixed-frequency model, that incorporate high frequency data either in the conditional mean or the conditional variance equation. The inclusion of high frequency data through non-parametric smoothing functions complements the low frequency data to capture possible non-linear relationships triggered by the structural change. Simulation studies indicate that in the presence of structural change, the varying frequency in the mean model provides improved in-sample fit and superior out-of-sample predictive ability relative to low frequency time series models. These hold across a broad range of simulation settings, such as varying time series lengths, nature of structural break points, and temporal dependencies. We illustrate the relative advantage of the method in predicting stock returns and foreign exchange rates in the case of the Philippines.

Hysteretic and asynchronous regime shifts of bacterial and micro-eukaryotic communities driven by nutrient loading

Nutrient pollution is pervasive in many urban rivers, while restoration measures that reduce nutrient loading but fail to improve biological communities often lack effectiveness due to the indispensable role of biota, especially multi-taxa, in enhancing ecosystem stability and function. The investigation of the response patterns of multi-taxa to the nutrient loading in urban rivers is important for the recovery of biota structure and thus ecosystem function. However, little is known about the response patterns of multi-taxa and their impact on ecosystem structure and function in urban rivers. Here, the study, from the perspective of alternative stable states theory, showed the hysteretic response of both bacterial and micro-eukaryotic communities to nutrient loading based on the field investigation and environmental DNA metabarcoding. Bistability was shown to exist in both bacterial and micro-eukaryotic communities, demonstrating that the response of microbiota to nutrient loading was a regime shifts with hysteresis. Potential analysis then indicated that the increased nutrient loading drove regime shifts in the bacterial community and the micro-eukaryotic community towards a state dominated by anaerobic bacteria and benthic Bacillariophyta, respectively. High nutrient loading was found to reduce the relative abundance of metazoan, but increase that of eukaryotic algae, which made the trophic pyramid top-lighter and bottom-heavier, probably exacerbating the degradation of ecosystem function. It should be noted that, in response to the reduced nutrient loading, the recovery threshold of micro-eukaryotic communities (nutrient loading = ∼0.5) was lower than that of bacterial communities (nutrient loading = ∼1.2), demonstrating longer hysteresis of micro-eukaryotic communities. In addition, the markedly positive correlation between the status of microbial communities and N-related enzyme activities suggested the recovery of microbial communities probably will benefit the improvement of N-cycling functionality. The obtained results provide a deep insight into the collapse and recovery trajectories of multi-trophic microbiota to the nutrient loading gradient and their impact on the N transformation potential, therefore benefiting the restoration and management of urban rivers.

Insights on long-term ecosystem changes from stable isotopes in historical squid beaks

BackgroundAssessing the historical dynamics of key food web components is crucial to understand how climate change impacts the structure of Arctic marine ecosystems. Most retrospective stable isotopic studies to date assessed potential ecosystem shifts in the Arctic using vertebrate top predators and filter-feeding invertebrates as proxies. However, due to long life histories and specific ecologies, ecosystem shifts are not always detectable when using these taxa. Moreover, there are currently no retrospective stable isotopic studies on various other ecological and taxonomic groups of Arctic biota. To test whether climate-driven shifts in marine ecosystems are reflected in the ecology of short-living mesopredators, ontogenetic changes in stable isotope signatures in chitinous hard body structures were analysed in two abundant squids (Gonatus fabricii and Todarodes sagittatus) from the low latitude Arctic and adjacent waters, collected between 1844 and 2023.ResultsWe detected a temporal increase in diet and habitat-use generalism (= opportunistic choice rather than specialization), trophic position and niche width in G. fabricii from the low latitude Arctic waters. These shifts in trophic ecology matched with the Atlantification of the Arctic ecosystems, which includes increased generalization of food webs and higher primary production, and the influx of boreal species from the North Atlantic as a result of climate change. The Atlantification is especially marked since the late 1990s/early 2000s. The temporal patterns we found in G. fabricii’s trophic ecology were largely unreported in previous Arctic retrospective isotopic ecology studies. Accordingly, T. sagittatus that occur nowadays in the high latitude North Atlantic have a more generalist diet than in the XIXth century.ConclusionsOur results suggest that abundant opportunistic mesopredators with short life cycles (such as squids) are good candidates for retrospective ecology studies in the marine ecosystems, and to identify ecosystem shifts driven by climate change. Enhanced generalization of Arctic food webs is reflected in increased diet generalism and niche width in squids, while increased abundance of boreal piscivorous fishes is reflected in squids’ increased trophic position. These findings support opportunism and adaptability in squids, which renders them as potential winners of short-term shifts in Arctic ecosystems.

Theorising resistance in times of fossil fuels: Ecological grief, righteous anger and interaction rituals in Sweden's energy regime shift

The emerging shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy engages a broad spectrum of society. Through protests, social media campaigns and civil unrest, different groups seek to impact the speed, direction and distributional effects of this transformation. In this paper, we develop a conceptualisation of how such resistance is socially mobilised. We ask how people come to resort to open resistance in the context of energy regime dynamics. The growing literature on the topic highlights that declining material and social capital are not enough to understand resistance in times of fossil fuels. We suggest in this study that attention to a wider spectrum of emotions is crucial for understanding the political and ethical contestations through which changes in energy provision materialize. We draw upon sociological theory, in particular the notion of interaction rituals, to understand the social and affective process of resistance. The concept of interaction rituals captures the movement from feeling aggrieved to mobilisation of resistance through attention to the sharing and transformation of emotions. We apply our theorisation in two Swedish examples of contemporary resistance – the Forest Rebellion and the Petrol Protest – to illustrate the grievances that underpin these movements, and how interaction rituals mobilise and justify resistance. We end the paper with a discussion and comparison of the two examples, and the implications of our findings for (academic) knowledge about the role of resistance in relation to energy regimes.

An adaptive cycle resilience perspective to understand the regime shifts of social-ecological system interactions over the past two millennia in the Tarim River Basin

Socio-ecological systems (SESs) in arid regions have experienced multiple transformations throughout history due to human activities and natural forces. However, few studies have used the resilience cycle model to explain the resilience status and determinants of SESs over the past two millennia. This study proposes the adaptive cycle resilience (ACR) perspective to investigate regime shifts of socio-ecological system interactions in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) over the past two millennia. An ACR framework combining a piecewise linear regression model (PLR), ACR theory, and physical resilience models has been built to assess and quantify socio-ecological system resilience. Key indicators such as climate variability, settlement numbers, war frequency, glacier accumulation, and oasis area changes are identified and quantified to evaluate SESs adaptability and transformability. Glacier accumulation serves as a proxy for long-term climate change, while oasis area changes reflect the direct impact of human activities and environmental feedback on ecosystem productivity. Population and war indicators provide insights into social system stability and the impact of conflicts on SESs dynamics. The findings reveal that the 7th century and 1850s are critical points of regime shifts in the ACR. 200s BC-350s AD and 700s AD-900s AD are in the forward loop (r-K) period of the ACR. 350s AD-700s AD and 900s AD-1850s AD are the adaptive resilience backward loop (Ω-α) phase. Assessing the historical socio-ecological system resilience and identifying key transition points can inform proactive measures to mitigate potential regime shifts. Combining historical data with resilience theory provides a deep understanding of the ACR of SESs and their driving factors. This enriches the theoretical understanding of SESs and offers a robust case study for future resilience assessments and scenario analyses in arid regions.

Mountain Peatlands and Drought: Carbon Cycling in the Pyrenees Amidst Global Climate Change

AbstractThis study provides a multi‐year (2017–2022) Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (NECB) of a Pyrenean mountainous peatland through the integration of field data, satellite imagery, and statistical modeling. Fluvial organic carbon export was measured at 30 min frequency, while gaseous (CO2 and CH4) exchanges were measured monthly using closed chambers. These measurements were combined with Sentinel‐2 derived chlorophyll index and in situ high frequency (1 hr) measurements of key environmental variables such as air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, and water table level, to develop hourly gaseous carbon flux models (R2 = 0.69 for GPP, R2 = 0.84 for ER, R2 = 0.59 for CH4). Over the 2017–2022 period, modeled average GPP (610 ± 39 gC.m−2.year−1) and ER (641 ± 59 gC.m−2.year−1) showed that the peatland acted as a weak source of CO2 to the atmosphere, releasing 31 ± 73 gC.m−2.year−1. Considering fluvial carbon export and CH4 exchanges, the loss of carbon from the peatland increased to 55 ± 73 gC.m−2.year−1. Dissolved organic carbon constituted 8%–106% of the NECB. The estimated long‐term organic accumulation rate indicated a steady carbon accumulation rate of 16.4 gC.m−2.year−1, contrasting with the contemporary NECB, suggesting a recent shift in ecosystem functioning from a carbon sink to a source. The study underscores the role of water availability and air temperature through a drought index (DI), in shaping the NECB. The DI correlated significantly with annual carbon gaseous fluxes, except for 2022, marked by an intense drought. During this year the peatland became a large source of carbon (189 gC.m−2.year−1) to the atmosphere.

Food web collapse and regime shift following goldfish introduction in permanent ponds.

In a global context of invasive alien species (IAS), native predators are often eradicated by functionally different IAS, which may induce complex cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning because of the key role predators play in structuring communities and stabilizing food webs. In permanent ponds, the most abundant freshwater systems on Earth, global human-mediated introductions of alien omnivores such as the pet trade goldfish are driving broad-scale patterns of native predators' exclusion, but cascading consequences on food web structure and functioning are critically understudied. We compared food webs of naturally fishless ponds versus ponds where dominant native predators (newts) had been extirpated by invasive goldfish within the last decade. Integrating community-wide isotopic, taxonomic and functional traits approaches, our study reveals that pond food webs collapsed in both vertical and horizontal dimensions following goldfish introduction and the associated exclusion of native predators. Consumer taxonomic diversity was drastically reduced, essentially deprived of amphibians as well as predatory and mobile macroinvertebrates to the profit of burrowing, lower trophic level consumers (detritivores). Changes in community structure and function underlined a regime shift from a macrophyte-dominated system mainly characterized by benthic primary production (periphyton), to a macrophyte-depleted state of ponds hosting communities mainly associated with phytoplankton primary production and detritus accumulation, with higher tolerance to eutrophication and low dissolved oxygen concentration. Results underline major impacts of widely introduced omnivores such as the goldfish on the functioning of pond ecosystems with potentially dramatic consequences on the key ecosystem services they deliver, such as global biodiversity support or water quality improvement. They also shed light on the key role of submerged aquatic vegetation in supporting diverse communities and complex food webs in shallow lentic systems and call for urgent consideration of threats posed by IAS on ponds' ecosystems by managers and policymakers.

Extinction Chains Reveal Intermediate Phases Between the Safety and Collapse in Mutualistic Ecosystems

Ecosystems are undergoing unprecedented persistent deterioration due to unsustainable anthropogenic human activities, such as overfishing and deforestation, and the effects of such damage on ecological stability are uncertain. Despite recent advances in experimental and theoretical studies on regime shifts and tipping points, theoretical tools for understanding the extinction chain, which is the sequence of species extinctions resulting from overexploitation, are still lacking, especially for large-scale nonlinear networked systems. In this study, we developed a mathematical tool to predict regime shifts and extinction chains in ecosystems under multiple exploitation situations and verified it in 26 real-world mutualistic networks of various sizes and densities. We discovered five phases during the exploitation process: safe, partial extinction, bistable, tristable, and collapse, which enabled the optimal design of restoration strategies for degraded or collapsed systems. We validated our approach using a 20-year dataset from an eelgrass restoration project. Counterintuitively, we also found a specific region in the diagram spanning exploitation rates and competition intensities, where exploiting more species helps increase biodiversity. Our computational tool provides insights into harvesting, fishing, exploitation, or deforestation plans while conserving or restoring the biodiversity of mutualistic ecosystems.

Long-term climate warming and extreme cold events driving ecological shifts in a deep oligo-mesotrophic lake.

Deep lakes are critical for freshwater storage, yet they are struggling against major ecological issues from climate change and nutrient pollution. A comprehensive understanding of internal feedback mechanisms is crucial for regulating nutrients in these lakes. A five-year study was conducted on the diatom community and environment in Lake Fuxian, China's largest deep freshwater lake, which is becoming eutrophic. The results indicate a shift in the diatom community from a stable state dominated by a single species to a rapid seasonal fluctuation, and there is a significant increase in diatom biomass. Specifically, stable stratification and low nutrient concentrations are limiting the growth of diatom biomass and maintaining the dominance of Cyclotella. Nutrients in the hypolimnion were replenished in the epilimnion during the extreme cold of winter, triggering a shift in the diatom community. This shift may imply that future climate change will exacerbate the positive feedback of hypoxia-nutrient release of algal blooms, potentially triggering a regime shift in the ecosystem of the entire lake. This study underscores the fact that climate change alters the internal feedback mechanisms of deep lakes, reducing ecosystem stability, and provides a scientific basis for further clarification of protection measures for deep lakes.

Wake-induced response of a flexible splitter plate detachedly placed downstream of a circular cylinder

A fluid–structure interaction numerical investigation was conducted on the flow past a circular cylinder with a detached flexible plate at a low Reynolds number Re = 160. A broad gap ratio range of 0–6.0 is examined at three plate lengths. Numerical results indicated that the vortex formation is closely related to the position of the plate with respect to the recirculation region behind the cylinder. Three wake interference regimes are identified, including the extended-body, continuous reattachment (CR), and alternate reattachment (AR). Taking into account the wake interference and vortex shedding modes and the response order, six wake flow patterns are observed. The CR regime shifts to AR at a critical gap G/D = 3, where both the vibration amplitude and frequency sharply increase. The sizes of vortex spacing and plate length determine the response mode of the flexible plate. Compared to an isolated cylinder, the optimal reduction percentages in drag and lift coefficients are around 90% and 20%, respectively.

Stay or go? Changing breeding conditions affect sexual difference in colony attendance strategies of Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica.

Male and female birds have different roles in reproduction and, thereby in their reproductive investment, which in turn may increase negative effects of poorer breeding conditions caused by e.g., climate change or ecosystem regime shifts. By using a 33-year time series of resightings of Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica individually colour-ringed as breeders in previous years, we showed that the difference in colony attendance of male and female birds depended on the environmental conditions for raising young, proxied by the average duration of the chick period and size of the herring Clupea harengus fed to the chicks in the colony each year. The longer the chick period, the more was the sex ratio of adults sitting visibly in the colony biased in favour of males. An increase in herring size, indicating better feeding conditions for raising chicks, led to more observations of both sexes. Additionally, we found that birds were observed less with age and females more so than males. We discuss the results in relation to general life-history theory on sexual differences in trade-offs between individual investment in breeding and own survival. Our results suggest that females are increasingly more willing than males to invest in provisioning for the chick the more and longer the chick needs such care.

Nonlinear shifts and dislocations in financial market structure and composition.

This paper develops new mathematical techniques to identify temporal shifts among a collection of US equities partitioned into a new and more detailed set of market sectors. Although conceptually related, our three analyses reveal distinct insights about financial markets, with meaningful implications for investment managers. First, we explore a variety of methods to identify nonlinear shifts in a market sector structure and describe the mathematical connection between the measure used and the captured phenomena. Second, we study a network structure with respect to our new market sectors and identify meaningfully connected sector-to-sector mappings. Finally, we conduct a series of sampling experiments over different sample spaces and contrast the distribution of Sharpe ratios produced by long-only, long-short, and short-only investment portfolios. In addition, we examine the sector composition of the top-performing portfolios for each of these portfolio styles. In practice, the methods proposed in this paper could be used to identify regime shifts, optimally structured portfolios, and better communities of equities.

Agricultural policy and crop location: Long‐run output and spatial climate risk consequences

AbstractChoices by farmers—notably what crop to grow, where—are not only influenced by spatially sensitive environmental attributes but also economic factors that respond to changes in government policies. In South Africa, the policy stance toward agriculture swung toward an extended period of support spanning the middle of the 20th century. Subsequently, the agricultural support policies were eliminated in the post‐Apartheid period beginning in the 1990s. Using a purpose‐built, spatially explicit data set for South African agriculture spanning the period 1918–2015, we show these structural shifts in agricultural policy regimes concord with major shifts in national corn price trends and variability, and the area planted to corn (accounting for half the country's cropped area). More subtly, and much less studied, we reveal that these switching policy regimes also aligned with changes in the location of crop production, with pronounced consequences for crop output and climate risk. At its peak, policy‐aligned crop movement in South Africa reduced corn output by between 7.9% and 15.3%, and placed production in areas with reduced and riskier rainfall patterns. Upon removal of the policy distortions, the decline in total corn area continued, and the crop largely reverted to its predistorted, less climate‐risky geographical locations. The geographical sensitivities of the agricultural policy–production–climate risk nexus we reveal suggest these locational aspects deserve more concerted analytical and policy design attention, especially in light of the longer run, spatially sensitive production and food security risk implications of the changing climate realities facing agriculture the world over.

Marked interannual variability in the relative dominance of phytoplankton over submerged macrophytes rather than regime shifts in a shallow eutrophic lake: Evidence from long-term observations

The theory of regime shift is rooted in the concept of fold catastrophe and posits the existence of alternative stable states, such as a lake dominated by phytoplankton or macrophytes under similar environmental conditions. Although regime shifts have been reported in many shallow lakes, recent evidence has revealed that a linear rather than dual relationship between chlorophyll-a (Chla) and nutrients is more common, indicating that regime shifts are rare in nature. Here, long-term field observations and the coverage of the submerged macrophyte area (SMA) retrieved from remote sensing (RS) images of Yilong Lake, in which regime shifts have been reported, were used to re-examine the presence or absence of regime shifts and to explore the drivers of abrupt changes. During the past three decades, Yilong Lake has experienced three abrupt changes in water quality, phytoplankton biomass (Chla) and the SMA. However, the relationship between Chla and nutrients was significantly linear, and the state variables (Chla, Secchi depth and SMA) changed along the gradient of environmental stress, which demonstrates the absence of regime shifts and instead highlights the presence of marked interannual changes. Moreover, we found that nutrients and water depth are the main environmental factors driving the establishment/collapse of the SMA and shaping the relative dominance of phytoplankton over the SMA, further inducing rapid changes in nutrient cycling and water quality in Yilong Lake. The significant interannual variability in the SMA and Chla in Yilong Lake reflects a pronounced weakening of resilience. To enhance resilience, an adaptive strategy involving external nutrient loading reduction, water level management and biodiversity restoration is proposed.