Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios Research Articles

Spatiotemporal Projections of Precipitation in the Lancang–Mekong River Basin Based on CMIP6 Models

The Lancang–Mekong River Basin (LMRB) is the largest international river in Southeast Asia, supporting a population of about 70 million people. Precipitation is the main source of water resources in the basin, with significant impacts on ecology, production, and livelihoods in the basin. In this study, future precipitation was projected using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models. The initial bias of each model was corrected using the daily bias-correction (DBC) method, and then the models were ensembled using the Bayesian model-averaging (BMA) method. The evaluation, based on metrics such as climatology bias, root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and correlation coefficient (COR), showed that the ensemble precipitation performs better than the individual models. Precipitation under four future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) displayed an increasing trend throughout the LMRB. The anomalies in annual precipitation in 2061–2090 under each scenario are 136 mm, 142 mm, 114 mm, and 227 mm, in that order. Precipitation in spring and winter shows a trend of increasing in the northern LMRB and decreasing in the southern LMRB, and precipitation in summer and autumn shows a significant trend of increasing in almost the whole basin (significance level 0.05). Spring precipitation in the Mekong Delta decreases in all scenarios. The ratio of wet-season precipitation to dry-season precipitation shows an increasing trend for all scenarios, indicating that the difference between wet-season precipitation and dry-season precipitation will increase in the future. For daily precipitation, the Lancang River Basin (LRB) is dominated by a 3–5% increase in the number of days with 5–10 mm/d of precipitation and the Mekong River Basin (MRB) by a 3–5% increase in the number of days with 10–20 mm/d of precipitation under four SSP scenarios in 2061–2090. There are important changes in the spatial distribution of future precipitation, with the 2500 mm isohyet expanding outwards in a circular pattern and the center of the 1500 mm isohyet moving westwards; i.e., areas with annual precipitation exceeding 2500 mm and 1500 mm will expand. For dry-season precipitation, the 500 mm isohyet shrinks, mainly in a circular pattern towards the center, while the 300 mm isohyet moves mainly towards the east, indicating that areas of dry-season precipitation below 500 mm and 300 mm will expand. In the future, the LMRB will generally become wetter in the wet season and drier in the dry season.

Contrasting Population Projections to Induce Divergent Estimates of Landslides Exposure Under Climate Change

AbstractAt first glance, assessing future landslide‐exposed population appears to be a straightforward task if landslide hazard estimates, climate change, and population projections are available. However, the intersection of landslide hazard with socioeconomic elements may result in significant variation of estimated landslide exposure due to considerable variations in population projections. This study aims to investigate the effects of different sources of population data on the evaluation of landslide‐exposed population in China under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. We utilize multiple global climate models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and six high‐resolution spatially explicit static and dynamic population data sets to drive available landslide models. The results indicate an overall rise in landslide hazard projections, with an increase in the potential impact area of 0.4%–2.7% and an increase in the landslide frequency of 4.7%–20.1%, depending on the SSPs scenarios and future periods. However, the likely changes in future landslide exposed population, as modeled by incorporating population data from different sources with landslide hazard, yield divergent outcomes depending on the population data source. Thus, some of the projections depict an increase in future landslide exposure, while others show a clear decrease. The nationwide divergence ranged from −64% to +48%. These divergent findings were mainly attributed to differences in population data and a lesser extent to variations in GCMs. The present findings highlight the need to pay closer attention to the dynamic evolution of the elements at risk and the associated data uncertainties.

Climate Change and Projected Impacts on Wind Speed in the State of Kuwait

The development within Kuwait of wind energy is essential to meet rising energy needs. This study aims to address a gap in the existing literature by examining the role that a changing climate is projected to have on wind speed and wind power density (WPD). This analysis will include an examination of the projected future temporal and spatial variability of wind speed and WPD. We have selected two individual locations; the first location is near expanding urban areas and the second is close to the largest renewable energy project: the Shagaya renewable energy park. This research uses near surface wind speeds from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 for a comparison between the historical climate (1994–2014) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios (SSPs) future projections under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for mid- and long-term future climate estimates (2040–2060, 2080–2100). The results show that there are estimated to be pronounced changes both spatially and temporally. While there is spatial variability to the projected changes, the overall pattern suggests that future WPD is projected to decrease over Kuwait and this result will need to be considered in any plans for the development of renewable energy in the future.

Paving the way to the future: Mapping historical patterns and future trends of road material stock in Japan

Roads are a fundamental component of societal infrastructure, whose decades-long lifespan has far-reaching implications for developmental decisions. The road construction and development have profound impacts on economic growth, social dynamics, and environmental sustainability. Therefore, comprehensive measurement of the current road material stock (MS) and the projection of expected future road scale based on regional socio-economic scenarios that can reflect unique local conditions are necessary. This study examined the historical changes and progression patterns of the road network across Japan from 1965 to 2020 through material flow and material stock analysis. By using the road MS time series, along with explanatory socioeconomic variables, several models including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with explanatory variables (ARIMAX), Support Vector Regression (SVR), hybrid ARIMAX-SVR, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and Random Forest (RF) were compared. After comparison analysis, ARIMAX and hybrid ARIMAX-SVR models were employed to forecast expected road MS in each prefecture of Japan by 2050 based on national shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios. The study found that the total road MS of Japan increased 5.5-fold over 55 years. Aggregate was the dominant material, comprising over 70 % among the four materials of the total road MS. The forecast results for each prefecture were classified into three different patterns. Expected MS in most prefectures still displayed increasing trends in the five scenarios, but the projection of road MS in eight prefectures revealed a notable downward trend across each SSP scenario. For most prefectures, SSP5 displayed the highest expected road MS, followed by SSP1. SSP3 was the scenario with the lowest MS. This approach provided a more thorough understanding of the likely evolution of road MS across different SSP scenarios and could help inform decisions for resource allocation and policy formulation concerning road infrastructure management.

Development of global monthly dataset of CMIP6 climate variables for estimating evapotranspiration

Reliable projection of evapotranspiration (ET) is important for planning sustainable water management for the agriculture field in the context of climate change. A global dataset of monthly climate variables was generated to estimate potential ET (PET) using 14 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for four main shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The generated dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and a period ranging from 1950 to 2100 and can estimate historical and future PET using the Penman-Monteith method. Furthermore, this dataset can be applied to various PET estimation methods based on climate variables. This paper presents that the dataset generated to estimate future PET could reflect the greenhouse gas concentration level of the SSP scenarios in latitude bands. Therefore, this dataset can provide vital information for users to select appropriate GCMs for estimating reasonable PETs and help determine bias correction methods to reduce between observation and model based on the scale of climate variables in each GCM.

Invasion risk by fruit trees mealybug Rastrococcus invadens (Williams) (Homoptera: Pseudococcidae) under climate warming

The mango mealybug Rastrococcus invadens (Williams) (Homoptera: Pseudococcidae) is a destructive and important insect pest of fruit trees in Africa and Asia, especially the mango. Females and nymphs feed on plant leaves and fruits and produce honeydew that causes sooty mold, leading to yield reduction. Although it is an important pest, the distribution of R. invadens under different climate change scenarios has not been established. In this study, we predicted the suitable habitat for R. invadens occurrence under current and future [two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios: (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the years 2050s and 2070s], using environmental variables and four ecological niche models viz., maxent, random forest, boosted regression trees, and support vector machines. The performance and accuracy of these models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), the true skill statistic (TSS), correlation (COR), and deviance. All models had high accuracy (AUC ≥ 0.96, TSS ≥ 0.88, COR ≥ 0.74 and deviance ≤ 0.3) in predicting the potential distribution of R. invadens. Among the four models, the random forest algorithm had the highest performance (AUC = 0.99, TSS = 0.95, COR = 0.91 and deviance = 0.14) in predicting the potential distribution of R. invadens, followed by maxent (AUC = 0.97, TSS = 0.90, COR = 0.81 and deviance = 0.22). However, the maxent model was the best among the four algorithms in predicting the ecological niche of R. invadens. The precipitation of the wettest month (bio13) was the most crucial environmental variable that contributed to the predictions of the four models. The results revealed that most areas in East, Central, and West Africa were projected with high suitability for R. invadens to occur under current climatic conditions. Similarly, Bangladesh, Laos, Myanmar, India, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia in Asia, as well as Brazil, and Venezuela in South America showed high suitability for R. invadens establishment. However, under future climatic conditions (the years 2050s and 2070s), the suitable areas for R. invadens will increase regardless of the SSPs scenario (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) indicating an expansion of the geographical range for this pest. This expansion is projected to be higher for the years 2070s than the 2050s. Similarly, the invasion risk of R. invadens is predicted to be higher under SSP2-4.5 scenario compared to SSP5-8.5 scenario, regardless of the year of the projection. Our results serve as an early warning tool that could serve as a guide to prevent further spread and invasion of this pest to new areas as well as help in developing an effective management strategy against R. invadens.

Watershed environmental impact assessment for extreme climates based on shared socioeconomic pathway climate change scenarios

Abnormal climate phenomena that exceed conventional weather observations occur worldwide, such as severe floods, droughts, and environmental issues, and have attracted increasing attention. To avoid indiscriminate industrialization and achieve sustainable development, environmental experts have presented various opinions based on climate change scenario data. In this study, shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate change scenarios that consider socioeconomic conditions were used to assess the environmental impact of extreme climate conditions on watersheds. Using the UK Earth System Modelling (UKESM1) SSP scenarios, we analyzed the following: 1) Heat index for each SSP climate change scenario using the H-Index; 2) extreme climate for each SSP climate change scenario using the standardized precipitation index (SPI); 3) the impact of extreme climate on non-point pollution using event mean concentration (EMC); and 4) the environmental flow caused by extreme climate by combining the K-water Distributed RUnoff Model (K-DRUM) and global environmental flow calculator (GEFC) models. According to the heat index analysis regarding SSPs climate change scenarios, the heatwave index will continue to rise if high carbon emissions persist. Temperature serves as an important indicator that has the most meaningful impact on ecosystems. The SPI analysis showed an increase in “extremely dry” conditions, and overall, more severe droughts are likely to occur due to high carbon emission-induced climate change. The nonpoint source pollution is also higher in climate change scenarios with high carbon emissions. The extreme drought event assessment using SPI and environmental flow revealed a shift from the “moist conditions” category to grade C. Our assessments in this study conclusively indicate that drought frequency will increase along with nonpoint source pollution. Furthermore, environmental flows will shift to grade C, resulting in the disappearance of some sensitive ecological species and an increase in invasive species. These analyses determined that high carbon emission-induced climate change caused leads to severe droughts and significant alterations in the overall water circulation, thereby complicating water resource management. Furthermore, we identified watersheds that are highly vulnerable to climate change and designated these as “mid-watersheds” that first require non-point pollution management. Here, the aquatic ecosystem environment can be affected by climate change without any artificial environmental influence. Various research-based analysis methods based on modeling have been presented using SSP climate change scenarios, and are highly beneficial for establishing policies and coping strategies for environmental preservation and sustainable development.

Evolution Patterns of Cooling Island Effect in Blue–Green Space under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios

Blue–green space refers to blue space (rivers and lakes) and green space (lawns and trees), which have the cooling island effect and are increasingly acknowledged as a potential and effective way to help alleviate the urban heat island effect. Scientific and flexible blue–green space planning is required, especially for medium- and large-scale urban agglomerations in the face of climate change. However, the temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the cooling island effect in the blue–green space under different future scenarios of climate change have not been fully investigated. This would impede long-term urban strategies for climate change adaptation and resilience. Here we studied the relationship between future climate change and blue–green spatial layout with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), based on the numerical simulation data of 15 global climate models under different extreme Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. As a result, future changes in urban cooling island (UCI) magnitudes were estimated between historical (2015–2020) and future timelines: 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), 2070s (2061–2080), and 2090s (2081–2100). Our results showed different land use types in blue and green space across the study area were predicted to present various changes in the next 80 years, with forest, grassland, and arable land experiencing the most significant land use transfer. The future UCI intensity of cities under SPP5-8.5 (12) was found to be lower than that under SPP2-4.5 (15), indicating that cities may be expected to experience decreases in UCI magnitudes in the future under SSP5-8.5. When there is no expansion of urban development land, we found that the conversion of different land use types into blue and green space leads to little change in future UCI intensity. While the area growth of forests and water bodies is proportional to the increase in UCI, the increase of farmland was observed to have the most significant impact on reducing the amplitude of urban UCI. Given that Huai’an City, Yancheng City, and Yangzhou City have abundant blue–green space, the urban cooling island effect was projected to be more significant than that of other cities in the study area under different SSP scenarios. The simulation results of the WRF model indicate that optimizing the layout of urban blue–green space plays an important role in modulating the urban thermal environment.

An increase in temperature under the shared socioeconomic scenarios in the Volta River Basin, West Africa: implications for economic development

Abstract This study examined the temperature variations in West Africa's Volta River Basin (VRB) from 2021 to 2050 in comparison to the historical period (1985–2014) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Datasets from three Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were used. The GCMs and their ensemble were evaluated on a monthly scale. The study used the ensemble mean to analyse the changes in annual and monthly temperature over the Sahel, Savannah, Guinea Coast, and the entire Volta basin. The results demonstrate the individual GCMs reproduced the observed temperature pattern at the VRB, though with some overestimations, but the ensemble mean indicated a better representation of the observed temperature. A warming trend in the basin is projected under both climate scenarios, with higher temperatures projected under SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5 in all three zones. The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 0.8 and 1.0 °C, with a statistically increasing trend under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Without a doubt, high temperatures, if unchecked, can erupt into resource conflict among the competing interest groups, thereby affecting the achievement of economic development at the VRB.

Insights from CMIP6 SSP scenarios for future characteristics of propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Pearl River Basin

Drought is a common and widely distributed natural hazard. Analyzing and predicting drought characteristics and propagation are important for the early warning, prevention, and mitigation of drought disasters. This study used the precipitation and runoff outputs from General Circulation Models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to evaluate the meteorological drought (MD) and hydrological drought (HD) characteristics in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (i.e., SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The propagation characteristics of external propagation (response between different type of drought) and internal propagation (drought development and recovery stages of a single type of drought) were also comprehensively investigated based on CMIP6. The results revealed that: 1) the percentage of grids within the dry range of MD and HD will decrease from the historical period to the future period under the two scenarios. The PRB is projected to exhibit wetter patterns; 2) Higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5) are more likely to weaken dryness conditions; 3) regarding the external propagation, the drought response time from MD to HD would be 2 months, and there would be no significant change under two scenarios; and 4) regarding the internal propagation, during three study periods (1971–2010, 2021–2060 and 2061–2100), the MD (HD) average recovery time changed from 3.90 (3.36) to 3.75 (3.41) and then to 3.95 (3.43) months under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and changed from 3.93 (3.46) to 3 (3.51) and then to 3.7 (3.25) months under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. These results aid in understanding future drought characteristics and drought propagation under climate change.

Using CMIP6 Models to Assess Future Climate Change Effects on Mine Sites in Kazakhstan

Climate change is a threat to mining and other industries, especially those involving water supply and management, by inducing or amplifying some climatic parameters such as changes in precipitation regimes and temperature extremes. Using the latest NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 datasets, this study quantifies the level of climate change that may affect the development of two mine sites (site 1 and site 2) in north–east Kazakhstan. The study analyses the daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature a of a number of global circulation models (GCM) over three future time periods, the 2040s, 2060s, and 2080s, under two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, SSP245 and SSP585, against the baseline period 1981–2014. The analyses reveal that: (1) both maximum and minimum temperature will increase under both SSP in those time periods, with the rate of change for minimum temperature being higher than maximum temperature. Minimum temperature, for example, will increase by 2.2 and 2.7 °C under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively, over the 2040s period at both sites; (2) the mean annual precipitation will increase by an average rate of 7% and 10.5% in the 2040s for SSP245 and 17.5% and 7.5% for SSP585 in the 2080s at site 1 and site 2, respectively. It is also observed that summer months will experience drier condition whilst all other months will increase in precipitation; (3) the values of 24 h precipitation with a 10 year return period will also increase under both SSP scenarios and future time periods for most of the studied GCM and at both mine sites. For instance, over the near future period, a 6.9% and 2.8% increase in 10 year 24 h precipitation is expected to happen over site 1 and site 2, respectively, under SSP245. These predicted changes should be considered as design criteria adjustments for projected water supply and water management structures.

Constrained tropical land temperature-precipitation sensitivity reveals decreasing evapotranspiration and faster vegetation greening in CMIP6 projections

Over the tropical land surface, accurate estimates of future changes in temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration are crucial for ecological sustainability, but remain highly uncertain. Here we develop a series of emergent constraints (ECs) by using historical and future outputs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth System Models under the four basic Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). Results show that the temperature sensitivity to precipitation during 2015–2100, which varies substantially in the original CMIP6 outputs, becomes systematically negative across SSPs after application of the EC, with absolute values between −1.10 °C mm−1 day and −3.52 °C mm−1 day, and with uncertainties reduced by 9.4% to 41.4%. The trend in tropical land-surface evapotranspiration, which was increasing by 0.292 mm yr−1 in the original CMIP6 model outputs, becomes significantly negative (−0.469 mm yr−1) after applying the constraint. Moreover, we find a significant increase of 58.7% in the leaf area index growth rate.

Insights from the bias-corrected simulations of CMIP6 in India's future climate

In this study, we have used thirteen statistically downscaled bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Based on these models, the projected changes in mean rainfall and daily extremes (number of rainy days and simple daily intensity) during the southwest (SW) and northeast (NE) monsoon seasons in the near (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) under the SSP2-4.5 & SSP5-8.5 scenarios relative to the baseline period (1985–2014) are studied. In addition to the rainfall, the maximum, minimum, and mean temperature changes and their daily extremes are also examined. Our results show that the Multi-Model Mean (MMM) slightly underestimated (overestimated) the SW (NE) monsoon rainfall compared to the observed rainfall in the baseline period. A considerable increase in future rainfall during the SW monsoon season is noticed in central India, the Himalayan region, and over the northwestern parts of India. In the NE monsoon season, south peninsular India experiences more rainfall under SSP5-8.5 than SSP2-4.5. In general, both SSPs scenarios shows increase in monsoon rainfall from the mid-century onwards. Interestingly, by the end of the 21st century the number of rainy days are projected to reduce, whereas the intensity of rainfall projected to be drastically increase over many areas of India. Analysis of temperature revealed that there is increase in the projected warming with maximum temperature is around 4.5°C during summertime, with minimum temperatures of about 5°C in the wintertime in northern parts of India by the end of the 21st century. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, increase in the highest maximum temperatures is seen in the Himalayan region and elevated minimum temperature pattern over the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) is noted. This increased warming may affect the agriculture, water, health, and power sectors severely.

Observed and projected changes in wet and dry spells for the major river basins in East Asia

AbstractSpatiotemporal changes in wet and dry spells had significantly contributed to climate‐related natural hazards in East Asia, especially in river basins undergoing warming. However, few studies have systematically analysed these changes for river basins at different latitudes. Herein, we investigated the observed and projected variations in wet and dry spells for East Asian river basins at different latitudes. We found that river basins at low latitudes (Yangtze and Pearl rivers) had obvious wet characteristics, whereas those at high latitudes (Amur and Yellow rivers) had obvious dry characteristics. In general, the river basins presented a ‘wet south but dry north’ spatial pattern. Long‐duration wet spells have been shown to be the primary contributor to total wet spells in low‐latitude river basins, while long‐duration dry spells have been found to be the primary contributor to total dry spells in high‐latitude river basins. Importantly, climate is changing from prolonged wet spells to short, intense wet spells in low‐latitude river basins, whereas the climate is changing from single, short dry spells to moderate, prolonged dry spells at high latitudes. These changes indicate a high probability of flash floods in river basins at low latitudes and a high probability of droughts at high latitudes. In the future, more temporally clustered heavy precipitation events and prolonged dry spells may lead to increasingly uneven precipitation in high‐latitude river basins and the Pearl River basin, especially under the higher shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. In contrast, more frequent consecutive heavy precipitation events may aggravate the risk of flooding in the Yangtze River basin. These findings are expected to serve as a guide for flood and drought risk mitigation in East Asia under a warming climate.

The effectiveness of the Iranian building code in mitigating climate change in Bandar Abbas

Climate change has a varying impact on building energy demand. In Bandar Abbas, a city on the southern coast of Iran, global warming is expected to exacerbate an already harsh climate. Although the Iranian building code has an energy efficiency ranking with specific design requirements, its effectiveness in mitigating climate change is still to be fully understood. Furthermore, Iran's energy mix based on fossil fuels makes filling this gap even more urgent. This study assesses the magnitude of the impact of global warming on a real-case multi-apartment building in this region and evaluates the effectiveness of the different energy efficiency levels designated in the building code in reducing energy consumption under present and future climate conditions. Depending on the projected shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios, the annual electricity consumption may increase by 14 % to 21 % and 21 % to 40 % in 2050 and 2080 timeframes, respectively. When implementing Iranian building code requirements for the envelope's higher levels of energy efficiency, energy consumption reduces substantially, thus contributing to mitigating the impact of global warming. By applying these regulations, energy savings of 5 % to 19 % and HVAC electricity reductions of 9 % to 26 % can be achieved for units on different building floors. In order for Iran to meet the carbon neutrality targets, we recommend making the highest energy efficiency level of the building code mandatory immediately and pushing forward new and more stringent legislation.

Analysis of China's non-ferrous metals industry's path to peak carbon: A whole life cycle industry chain based on copper

Copper is an essential nonferrous metal, and the adjustment of its whole industry chain structure is conducive to realizing a carbon peak in the nonferrous metal industry. We have performed a life cycle assessment to calculate the carbon emissions of the copper industry. Based on the carbon emissions scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), we have utilized material flow analysis and system dynamics to analyze the structural changes in the copper industry chain from 2022 to 2060 in China. The results show that (1) the flows and in-use stocks of all types of copper resources will increase significantly. The overall copper supply may meet demand around 2040–2045 due to secondary copper production potentially replacing primary copper production to a large extent, and trade supply is the primary pathway for meeting copper demand. (2) The total carbon emissions from the regeneration system are the smallest (4 %), followed by the production and trade subsystems, accounting for 48 %. The embodied carbon emissions from copper product trade in China have expanded annually. (3) Under the SSP scenario, the copper chain carbon emission peak will be achieved by approximately 2040. Based on a balanced copper supply and demand scenario, the recycled copper recovery efficiency must reach 84.6 %, and the energy structure (the proportion of non-fossil energy in electricity) must reach 63.8 % by 2030 to achieve the carbon peak target for the copper industry chain in China. The above conclusions indicate that actively promoting adjustments in the energy structure and resource recovery processes may help encourage the carbon peak of nonferrous metals in China by realizing the carbon peak of the copper industry.

Large simulated future changes in the nitrate radical under the CMIP6 SSP scenarios: implications for oxidation chemistry

Abstract. The nitrate radical (NO3) plays an important role in the chemistry of the lower troposphere, acting as the principle oxidant during the night together with ozone. Previous model simulations suggest that the levels of NO3 have increased dramatically since the preindustrial period. Here, we show projections of the evolution of the NO3 radical from 1850–2100 using the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM1) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our model results highlight diverse trajectories for NO3, with some scenarios and regions undergoing rapid growth of NO3 to unprecedented levels over the course of the 21st century and others seeing sharp declines. The local increases in NO3 (up to 40 ppt above the preindustrial base line) are driven not only by local changes in emissions of nitrogen oxides but have an important climate component, with NO3 being favoured in warmer future climates. The changes in NO3 lead to changes in the oxidation of important secondary organic aerosol precursors, with potential impacts on particulate matter pollution regionally and globally. This work highlights the potential for substantial future growth in NO3 and the need to better understand the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from NO3 to accurately predict future air quality and climate implications.

Projection of Meteorological Dryness/Wetness Evolution Based on Multi-Model Scenarios in Poyang Lake Basin, China

Based on the projections of three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios of three climate models of CMIP6, this study analyzed the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to understand the future meteorological dryness/wetness changes in the Poyang Lake basin (PLB) from 2021 to 2100. The effect of temperature change on the dryness and wetness variation was explored by comparing the trends of SPEI and standardized precipitation index (SPI) at multiple-time scales and different SSPs scenarios. The results indicate that the frequency of drought events may increase by 1.1~3.8% than the historical period in the three scenarios, and they may be higher than that of wetness events in the future of this century. Cumulative months of drought events are higher in most decades than the wetness events, and especially in the 2090s. A total of 43 months may suffer drought events in the 2090s under the SSP585 scenario, which is more than twice the wetness events. With the enhanced concentration of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, both the frequency of droughts and the proportion of extreme droughts show a significant increasing trend at 99% confidence in PLB. The spatial distribution of net precipitation is generally in the southwest–northeast pattern, yet it is still in different values in most scenarios; thus, the uncertainty of dryness/wetness spatial conditions should be considered. The SPI detects more wetness events and a more intensive wetting trend, while the SPEI shows the opposite. The difference between SPI and SPEI gradually increases with GHG emission concentration, and may even lead to contrary conclusion in the last two decades at a 48-month scale under the SSP245 and 585 scenarios, indicating the unneglectable impact of increasing temperature and evapotranspiration on the dryness/wetness conditions in the future. The research results can help to predict the evolution pattern of dry and wet occurrence in the PLB in the future and promote flood/drought control and disaster mitigation.

Concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwaves in the late 21st century over the CORDEX‐East Asia phase 2 domain using multi‐GCM and multi‐RCM chains

AbstractThe adverse impacts of extreme heat on human health when a concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwave (CDNHW) occurs are greater than when daytime or nighttime heatwaves occur individually, because of the reduced recovery time from heat exposure. This study projects increases in CDNHW over the whole of East Asia under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5). The daily maximum and minimum temperatures, which are used to define a CDNHW, are calculated of 3‐hourly temperatures of 25 km horizontal resolution produced by 12 general circulation model and regional climate model chains participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment East Asia phase 2 project. In Historical simulation (1981–2005), occurrence period and occurrence rate of CDNHW from April to September area‐averaged in East Asia are 10.9 days and 0.9%, respectively. In projections for the future (2071–2100), occurrence period and occurrence rate of CDNHW will be 3 weeks and 3.7% (RCP2.6), 2 months and 20.5% (RCP8.5), 2 months and 15.6% (SSP1‐2.6), and 3 months and 45.7% (SSP5‐8.5). In addition, it is expected that the CDNHW intensity will increase, and the spatial extent of CDNHW will be extended. Although a CDNHW lasting less than 3 days is the most common, the proportion of CDNHWs lasting more than 10 days, compared to the total CDNHW frequency, will increase to 1.2% (RCP2.6), 7.2% (RCP8.5), 6.1% (SSP1‐2.6), and 17.3% (SSP5‐8.5) from 0.2% (Historical). Both occurrence rate and intensity of CDNHW will increase to a relatively large extent in Indochina, East and West China, and India. If the current greenhouse gas emissions continue, East Asia will experience unprecedented heat stress because the frequency and intensity of CDNHWs, which rarely occur during present‐day, will increase significantly over all regions by the end of the 21st century.

Assessing the impacts of future urban expansion on multiple ecosystem services in the transnational area of Changbai Mountain

Introduction: An assessment of the potential impacts of future urban expansion on multiple ecosystem services (ESs) represents an essential contribution to the sustainable development of the transnational area of Changbai Mountain (TACM). However, the potential ES losses attributed to future urban expansion have been assessed in few studies.Methods: In this study, we evaluated the potential ES losses attributable to urban expansion in the TACM over the period from 2015 to 2050. To achieve this objective, we initially quantified multiple ESs (namely, food production (FP), carbon storage (CS), water retention (WR), and air purification (AP)) based on 1992 data, and subsequently simulated urban expansion from 2015 to 2050 by coupling Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs) with the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban model. Finally, the potential impacts of future urban expansion on ESs were evaluated on multiple scales.Results: The results indicated that during the period from 2015 to 2050, the extent of urban land will grow by between 157.59 and 517.77 km2, resulting in FP, CS, WR, and AP losses of 193.76–684.39 thousand tons, 1.47–5.24 million tons, 8.74–30.00 million tons, and 0.34–1.18 thousand tons, respectively.Discussion: The subregion falling within the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) will experience the most severe future losses of ESs, with losses of FP, CS, WR, and AP being 1.06–3.77-fold, 1.15–3.46-fold, 1.10–3.54-fold, and 1.08–3.21-fold higher, respectively than those that occurred in this subregion the period of 1992–2015. Specifically, the encroachment of new urban land onto cropland and woodland will be the main contributing factor in these future declines in ESs. Furthermore, the reductions in ESs attributable to urban expansion in this subregion will have serious effects on human wellbeing. By 2050, the loss of FP will affect approximately 9.58%–30.00% of the population. Moreover, among the residents of this subregion, the loss of AP will contribute to the need for additional expenditures of 6.63–19.81 million euros on air purification measures. On the basis of these findings, we suggest that effective policies and regulations should be implemented to promote the sustainable development of the TACM.