Share Of Working-age Population Research Articles

Index of female labour force participation and its association with demographic dividends of India

ndia has entered into Amrit Kaal (an auspicious period most conducive to achieving the country’s potential). Share of working-age population (WAP) has exceeded the combined share of children and elderly population since 2018 and is likely to continue till 2055 with peak expected around 2041. To take maximum advantage of demographic dividends, India needs to increase female labour participation rate (FLFPR) and bring the unemployed labour into the labour market by implementing policies aiming at gender equality, improved health, education, expansion of opportunities of employment, etc. The paper describes multidimensional index of FLFPR of a country at t-th year I F L F P R t by aggregating correlates of FLFPR and also describes measures of both first and second demographic dividends ( and ). I F L F P R t avoids problems of logarithmic transformations, scaling/normalization, finding weights and issues related to multiple regressions and involves no bias for developed, developing or under-developed countries. Since base period figures are different for different countries, comparison of countries may be meaningful in terms of progress made from base period or on Year-to-Year basis. Since higher considering theoretical advantages, I F L F P R t is recommended for finding relationship of the form Demographic dividend = α + β ( F L F P R ) further relationship of GDPt or Per Capita GDPt of a country with ( F D D t and S D D t ) by regression analysis to see effect of FLFPR on economic growth.

The Effects of Demographic Dynamics on Economic Growth in EU Economies: a Panel Vector Autoregressive Approach

This study estimates the effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth, with a focus on the working-age population and life expectancy in 19 European Union economies for 1970–2020 and 2020–2050, using a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model as the analytical methodology. The main findings are as follows. First, the PVAR estimation identifies positive effects of the growth of the working-age population share and the extension of life expectancy on economic growth. Second, the contribution ratio of the demographic effects to economic growth for past population bonus periods is approximately 15% on average in this study, which is comparable to the ratios found in previous studies. Third, the projection for 2020–2050 shows that the magnitude of the negative demographic effect on annual economic growth due to the population onus is −0.385 on average among all sample economies. The main policy implication of this study is that the EU economies that have already entered the population onus phase of the demographic transition need to mitigate the negative effects of the decline in the working-age population share.

The impact of demographic structure, human capital, migration and environmental degradation on economic growth in Asia

PurposeThis study investigates the impact of demographic structural changes on economic growth using data for Asian economies covering the period 1960–2020. Other factors affecting economic growth, such as human capital, are also considered.Design/methodology/approachA fixed-effects model and a fixed-effects model with endogenous covariates are used to examine a dynamic demographic model covering different age cohorts (i.e. youth-age, working-age and old-age populations) and other factors impacting economic growth.FindingsThe working-age population share, the labour force relative to the working-age population and growth of the actively employed population have significant and positive impacts on economic growth. Population growth and the youth-age population share exert a significant and negative impact on economic growth. A second and silver demographic dividend is found arising from a significant and positive association between the old-age population and economic growth. Human capital has an inverted U-shaped association with economic growth. Environmental degradation is significantly and negatively related to economic growth. No evidence is found for the importance of migration.Practical implicationsThe positive association between the old-age population and economic growth indicates the policy significance of retirement-income systems with high coverage to enhance economic growth in Asia. Lifelong learning and preventative health measures can also be supportive policies to strengthen the third (silver) demographic dividend via the extension of retirement for productive and healthy elders.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine the impacts of demographic structure, human capital, migration and environmental degradation on economic growth in Asia, using the most up-to-date longitudinal data from 1960 to 2020. Unlike previous empirical studies, this study discovers empirically based evidence to support Asia's second and silver demographic dividends.

Does Demographic Transition Reduce Poverty in Central Asia?

Central Asian countries are experiencing a demographic transition due to the shrinking fertility and the mortality rates, and are in the stage of getting benefits from the economic tailwinds with an increased working-age population share. This potential is expected to convert the demographic transition into economic growth as well as poverty reduction. Although all countries' economy grows, poverty reduction is stagnated. The main question here is about the underlying cause of this stagnation in economic poverty reduction, is it due to an increase in the working-age population, or whether the region utilizes these economic benefits through accumulating human resources.
 In this paper, it was found out that one of the main reasons for continuing poverty is the lack of job creation. Moreover, due to the existing insecure jobs, the increasing economically active population of Central Asia is forced to seek jobs abroad. This paper analyzes the main channels that impact the demographic change in the Central Asian countries considering human capital, socio-economic situation, and poverty rate by using cross-section data for the period of 2000 – 2019 via the fixed effects method. According to the results of the model, the recommendation for reducing economic poverty is a well planned demographic policy that should focus on strengthening human resources, especially on education for developing new skills in an early stage which should boost economic growth.

СМЕРТНОСТЬ ТРУДОСПОСОБНОГО НАСЕЛЕНИЯ РОССИИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ПАНДЕМИИ COVID-19

Significance. High mortality rates among working-age population is one of the most important challenges to the development of the modern Russia, which has serious demographic and socio-economic consequences. At the beginning of 2021, the share of working-age population in the Russian total population added up to 56%. The purpose of the study is to analyze mortality among working-age population in Russia in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Material and methods. The study is based on the information base formed by demographic and medical statistics on the basis of reports from the Federal State Statistics Service, Federal Service for Supervision on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Welfare, World Health Organization, as well as analysis of relevant scientific publications. The study used general logical and analytical methods, methods of statistical, comparative and cartographic analysis. Results. During the pandemic, mortality rates in the Russian Federation increased by 340,279 people compared to 2019 (2,138,586 people or 14.6 per 1,000 population in 2020, 1,798,307 people or 12.3 per 1,000 population in 2019). The 2020 excess mortality using a five-year average method amounted to 288,006 people (2.0 per 1,000 population). The growth rate of mortality among male working-age population in 2020 added up 115% compared to 2019, and 119% - among female working-age population with the growth rates equaling to 15% and 19%, respectively. Discussion. Mortality among working-age population in 2020-2021 was influenced by a complex of factors (medical: circulating pathogen of the coronavirus infection, which is a trigger for chronic diseases, and temporary suspension of planned medical examinations and surgeries; socio-economic: high unemployment and low wages during the forced downtime of enterprises under the quarantine, difficult and dangerous working conditions, irrational work and rest regimen; behavioral: lifestyle in general, stress during the period of uncertainty about the end of the restrictive measures due to the pandemic, forced restrictions on contacts and movement, increased alcohol consumption). The mortality rate among male working-age population in Russia exceeds the one among their female peers 3.5 times. This is due to specifics of "male" employment, low resistance of men to socio-economic changes, disregard of health maintenance combined with behavioral risks and deviations. Conclusion. The main causes of death in the working-age cohort in Russia during the pandemic include cardiovascular diseases (30.6%), external causes (20.7%) and neoplasms (13.9%). Deaths from coronavirus infection COVID-19 rank sixth (4.9%) yielding precedency to deaths from diseases of the digestive system (9.8%), and deaths from certain infectious and parasitic diseases (5.6%). The share of deaths from COVID-19 among working-age population out of the total number of the COVID-19 deaths equals to 15.2%. However, with gender criterion considered, the difference is significant: 21.9% in males versus 8.3% in females, i.e. mortality among working-age males is 2.64 times higher.

Decomposing Effects of Population Aging on Economic Growth in OECD Countries

Abstract In this paper, we investigate six channels through which population aging affects output growth per capita of 35 OECD countries where the old dependency ratio is already quite high. The six channels we consider are changes in: (i) physical capital; (ii) human capital; (iii) average working hours; (iv) labor participation rate; (v) age composition of 15–64 (the share of population aged between 15 and 64 years; and (vi) total factor productivity (TFP). We first confirm findings from previous studies that aging in OECD countries has negative effects on GDP growth per capita. We then find that the most important channel through which the negative effects of aging on economic growth operate is lowered TFP growth. Across our empirical specifications, lowered TFP growth associated with aging explains more than fully the lowered growth rate of GDP per capita. We also find evidence of demographic deficit (decreases in working age population share), but this negative effect of aging is more than nullified by compensating increases in the average working hours and the labor force participation rate. We conclude that because TFP growth rate can be permanently lowered, aging's negative effects on GDP growth per capita are expected to be permanent.

ОСОБЕННОСТИ ДИНАМИКИ ОСНОВНЫХ ВОЗРАСТНЫХ ГРУПП СЕЛЬСКОГО НАСЕЛЕНИЯ РЕГИОНА

Regional features of dynamics of number of country people of the Saratov region and its main age groups, efficiency of implementation of federal target programs on growth of number of youth are shown in article. Parameters of national structure of rural areas at which in the region its reliable influence on demographic indicators is noted are determined. It is revealed that the number of country people of the Saratov region from 2011 to 2019 was reduced by 10%. The working-age population was reduced by 18%, is younger than working- age – for 8%, is more senior than working-age grew by 8%. The share of working-age population in the total number of the population was reduced from 69 to 54%, is more senior than able-bodied grew from 24 to 29%. At the same time, the share of the population is younger than working-age across the Saratov region grew from 17.0% in 2011to 17.3% in 2019. Steady growth of a share of youth in structure of the population is connected with increase in birth rate as a result of implementation of federal target programs. The peak of efficiency fell on 2015–2016. Results of execution of the regional program «Sustainable Development of Rural Territories of the Saratov Region for 2014-2020» are analysed. In the Right bank the share of youth grew from 15.9% in 2011 to 16.4% in 2015–2016, but then was reduced to 15.8%. On certain Right-bank areas where Russians in structure of the population from 80 to 96%, the share of youth decreased from 23 to 35%. In the Left bank the youth share in 2015– 2016 grew from 18.2 to 19.4% and decreased to 18.9% in 2019. The reliable negative correlative dependence between the number of Russians in structure of the population and youth number is established.

Global demographic change and international capital flows: Theory and empirics

While population has been aging globally, regions and countries are significantly asymmetric in the timing and speed of the demographic transitions, especially between developed and developing regions. This paper explores the impacts of asymmetric demographic change on international capital flows with two contributions. First, the paper introduces demographic structure and pension systems into a theoretical overlapping-generation model of a small open economy, and derives an analytical solution which links a large set of factors to the current account. This framework enables tractable analysis of the effects of various demographic shocks on external balances, and also of the interaction between demographic shocks and productivity growth and pension systems. Second, the paper provides a comprehensive literature review of both modeling and empirical studies. There are several qualitative implications. First, the patterns of capital flows depend on the nature of demographic shocks (permanent or transitory; fertility or mortality) and also on the stage of demographic shocks. Second, less generous pension systems tend to increase national saving and drive capital outflows. Third, financial frictions such as borrowing constraints of young people tend to increase national saving and drive capital outflows. Fourth, production and trade specialization in labor-intensive sectors tends to decrease investment and drive capital outflows in the face of fertility growth. Fifth, the magnitude of the demographic effects depends on the extent of cross-border mobility of capital, labor and goods. There are also several quantitative implications. First, demographics alone can explain a significant fraction of historical current account dynamics among advanced economies, especially low-frequency movements. Second, institutional and financial frictions need to be incorporated to reconcile the demographic effects with historical capital flows from emerging to advanced economies. Third, production structure and trade specialization also play an important role in demographics-driven capital outflows from emerging economies. On the other hand, empirical studies strongly support that the demographic change since the second half of last century has statistically significant effects on the current account balance. The current account tends to decrease in the dependency ratio, and increase in the working-age population share. This paper also points out the potential research direction.

Влияние демографических процессов на уровень инфляции в регионах России

The influence of demographic processes on the inflation rate in Russian regions is reviewing. The hypothesis of heterogeneous influence of the population of different age groups on the inflation rate are testing. Such influence can be explained by the different behavior of age groups concerning consumption, inflation expectations, as well as other factors that determine the behavior of different age groups, the specifics of the country’s regions, and interregional interaction. The database includes the statistical indicators of 81 regions of Russia for the period from 2010 to 2018. As the dependent variable the author has taken the inflation rate. As the independent variables in this paper are using the growth rate of the working age population share, the population younger than working age share, and the population older than working age share. Control variables are the openness of the economy, the growth rate of the physical volume index of investment, and the regional fiscal balances. The global and local Moran, Geary, Getis and Ord indices were used to identify the spatial dependence of the inflation rate. The obtained results allowed us to conclude that we can observe a positive global autocorrelation of the inflation rate in Russian regions and there is a need to use spatial models. Estimation of the Durbin spatial model allowed us to confirm the hypothesis. The growth rate of the working-age population share is inflationary, the growth rate of the population older than working age is inflationary too, but less, and the growth rate of the population younger than working age – deflationary. The obtained conclusions can be used to forecast inflation in the regions of Russia

Municipal waste in Poland: analysis of the spatial dimensions of determinants using geographically weighted regression

This article provides a quantification of the territorially varied relation between socio-economic factors and the amount of municipal waste in Polish districts. For this purpose, eight causes were identified: revenue budgets, the number and area of uncontrolled dumping sites, population density, the share of working-age population, average gross monthly wages, registrations for permanent residence, and the number of tourists accommodated. The preliminary data analysis indicated that to understand waste generation in Poland at the local level it is necessary to consider regional specificity and spatial interactions. To increase the explained variability of phenomena, and emphasise local differences in the amount of waste, geographically weighted regression was applied.

Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth

Using panel data for 142 countries for the period from 1960 to 2014, we assess the effects of population aging on economic growth. We find that population aging proxied by old-age population share (or old-age dependency ratio) negatively affects economic growth only when it reaches a certain high level and its negative effects grow stronger as population aging deepens. The nonlinear relationship between population aging and economic growth is associated with the historical nonlinear relationship between the shares of old and working-age population. In the early stages of a demographic shift in most countries, as the old-age population share increases, the working-age population share also tends to increase. Only when the share of old-age population is sufficiently high, the increase in the share of old-age population has coincided with the decline in the share of working age population, thereby having a negative relationship with economic growth. These results can clarify why some previous papers failed to uncover a negative relationship between aging population and economic growth. We also find that population aging has hampered economic growth during more recent years, especially in more aged countries which are mostly developed countries.

Особенности состояния здоровья трудоспособного населения в Сибирском федеральном округе

<span>Доля трудоспособного населения в России постепенно сокращается. По прогнозам, в 2026 г. численность всего населения уменьшится на 4,3%, а трудоспособного</span><span class="myHorizontalScaleForEmDashSpaceBefore"> </span><span>–</span><span class="myHorizontalScaleForEmDashSpaceAfter"> </span><span>на 16,4%, что приведет к снижению доли данной группы в возрастной структуре до 55,1% (в 2008 г. было 63,2%). По этой причине состояние здоровья этой категории граждан, анализ причин смертности и меры по ее снижению приобретают особое значение. Цель настоящего исследования</span><span class="myHorizontalScaleForEmDashSpaceBefore"> </span><span>–</span><span class="myHorizontalScaleForEmDashSpaceAfter"> </span><span>изучение состояния, динамики и особенностей заболеваемости, в том числе профессиональной, и причин смерти трудоспособного населения Сибирского федерального округа (СФО). Опираясь на анализ литературы, посвященной заболеваемости и смертности лиц трудоспособного возраста в СФО и России, а также статистические данные региональных органов управления здравоохранения СФО, авторы сделали выводы, что состояние здоровья трудоспособного населения в Сибири заметно хуже, чем в среднем по России. При этом заболевамость как с впервые в жизни установленным диагнозом, так и общая продолжает расти. Смертность хотя и снижается с течением времени, но медленнее, чем в целом по стране, поэтому за семь лет отставание от общероссийских показателей увеличилось с 14,8 до 17,25%. В структуре смертности отмечается повышенное (относительно РФ в целом) влияние внешних причин, таких как убийства, самоубийства, отравления суррогатами алкоголя и др. Несмотря на существенное снижение числа смертельных несчастных случаев на производстве (на 1000 человек), по этому показателю СФО опережают лишь Дальневосточный и Приволжский федеральные округа.</span>

Impact of Age–Structure Transition on India’s Current Account Balance: An Empirical Analysis

This article studies the impact of age structure variables on the current account balance (CAB) by using panel data for 57 countries from 1980 to 2014. The Gudmundsson and Zoega (Economic Letters 123[2]:183–186, 2014) methodology is used to calculate the age-adjusted CAB for these countries and India-specific results are analysed in comparison with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa. Empirical results show that India’s age-adjusted CAB would have experienced surpluses had it not been for the high share of its dependent population, especially the young. Further, the age-adjustment factor for India shows a gradual decline, and a larger share of working-age population in future may help in reducing its current account deficit (CAD). These results highlight the importance of demographic variables in explaining and predicting changes in the CAB and its implication for the attainment of India’s macroeconomic objective of external stabilisation. JEL Classification: E21, F32, J11

The Impacts of Population Aging on Saving, Capital Formation, and Economic Growth

The evolving population aging scenarios of the industrialized countries can be attributed to two major demographic dynamics: the declining fertility and fast aging population. The increasing old age dependency ratio, decreasing young dependency ratio, and shrinking share of working-age population in the aging economies generate substantial impacts on individual as well as aggregate consumption, saving and employment. Because retired people save less, an aging society with increasing proportion of retirees would experience a decline in aggregate savings, which in turn leads to lower capital formation and reduces economic growth. This paper focuses on the effect of population aging on aggregate saving, physical capital formation, and economic growth in Japan. The current study theorizes the effect of aging demographic dynamics on savings and capital formation. Taking into account the effects of population dynamics, saving, and capital formation together, this paper steps further in examining the implications of population aging for economic growth and discusses policy implications for the aging economy.

Swimming against the tide: economic growth and demographic dividend in India

ABSTRACTThere is an increasing policy focus on India’s demographic potential and associated growth benefits. This paper provides empirical evidence regarding the net growth benefits derived from an increased share of working-age population in India. The analysis adopts decomposition and econometric methods, using data at the state and national level in India, to robustly test the nature and magnitude of the demographic dividend in India. We find that the Indian economy is drawing significant benefits from the ongoing process of demographic transition, with dividend effects estimated to be over one percentage point per annum during 1980–2010. However, to derive high growth from the demographic potential would require tackling some of the growth constraints. The paper discusses ways in which these constraints can be addressed to fully tap the potential of demographic dividend.

On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty

Changing population age structures are shaping the trajectories of development in many countries, bringing opportunities and challenges. While aging has been a matter of concern for upper-middle and high-income economies, rapid population growth is set to continue in the poorest countries over the coming decades. At the same time, these countries will see sustained increases in the working-age shares of their population, and these shifts have the potential to boost growth and reduce poverty. This paper describes the main mechanisms through which demographic change may affect economic outcomes, and estimates the association between changes in the share of working-age population with per capita growth and poverty rate. An increase in the working-age population share and a reduction in the child dependency ratio are found to be associated with an increase in gross domestic product per capita growth, with similarly positive effects on poverty reduction.

How is internal migration reshaping metropolitan populations in Latin America? A new method and new evidence

Internal migration is a key driver of patterns of human settlement and socio-economic development, but little is known about its compositional impacts. Exploiting the wide availability of census data, we propose a method to quantify the internal migration impacts on local population structures, and estimate these impacts for eight large Latin American cities. We show that internal migration generally had small feminizing, downgrading educational, and demographic window effects: reducing the local sex ratio, lowering the average years of schooling, and raising the share of working-age population due to an increased young adult population. Over time, a rise in the proportion of males and a drop in the share of the young adult population moving into cities reduced the feminizing and demographic window effects. Concurrently, a rise in the average years of schooling associated with people moving into cities attenuated the downgrading impact of internal migration on local education levels.

Demographic change and economic growth: Theory and evidence from China

The paper tests the impact of demographic change on China's economic growth by using 1983–2008 provincial panel data. The deducted result of the theoretical model shows that the share of working-age population is positively correlated with economic growth, whereas birth rate has an adverse impact. Empirical results substantiate the finding. Due to the decrease of birth rate and the increase of the share of the working-age population, China's average annual per capita GDP growth rate increased 1.19 and 0.73 percentage points during the sample period. The contribution of these two demographic changes contributed to 19.5% of the economic growth together.

Demographic patterns and trends in Central Ghana: baseline indicators from the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Background: The dearth of health and demographic data in sub-Saharan Africa from vital registration systems and its impact on effective planning for health and socio-economic development is widely documented. Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems have the capacity to address the dearth of quality data for policy making in resource-poor settings.Objective: This article demonstrates the utility of the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) by showing the patterns and trends of population change from 2005 to 2009 in the Kintampo North Municipality and Kintampo South districts of Ghana through data obtained from the KHDSS biannual update rounds.Design: Basic demographic rates for fertility, mortality, and migration were computed by year. School enrolment was computed as a percentage in school by age and sex for 6–18 year-olds. Socio-economic status was derived by use of Principal Components Analysis on household assets.Results: Over the period, an earlier fertility decline was reversed in 2009; mortality declined slightly for all age-groups, and a significant share of working-age population was lost through out-migration. Large minorities of children of school-going age are not in school. Socio-economic factors are shown to be important determinants of fertility and mortality.Conclusion: Strengthening the capacity of HDSSs could offer added value to evidence-driven policymaking at local level.

Determinants of economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe: the global crisis perspective

This article presents an empirical analysis of economic growth determinants in the 10 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. The analysis covers the period 1993–2009. All the calculations are performed on five three-year subperiods and one two-year subperiod: 1993–95, 1996–98, 1999–2001, 2002–04, 2005–07 and 2008–09. The analysis is composed of three steps: data selection, correlation analysis and regression analysis. The correlation analysis is based on the coefficient of partial correlation to exclude the impact of the global crisis. In the regression analysis we build 10 alternative variants of empirical models of economic growth. Our results suggest that the most important economic growth determinants in the CEE countries are investment rate (including FDI), human capital measured by the education level of the labour force, financial sector development, good fiscal stance (low budget deficit and low public debt), economic structure (high services share in GDP), low interest rates and low inflation, population structure (high share of working-age population), development of information technology and communications, high private sector share in GDP and favourable institutional environment (economic freedom, progress in market and structural reforms). Our study indicates that the CEE countries have developed in line with the hypothesis of income level convergence (both in absolute and conditional terms). This means that less developed CEE economies grew on average faster than more developed ones.