Share Of Global Trade Research Articles

What are the Factors Making Pakistan’s Exports Stagnant? Insight from Literature Review

Lowering exports is considered as one of the paramount reasons of widening trade deficit of Pakistan, which has become a long-standing challenge that country is facing since the beginning of the century. During the last two decades, the contribution of exports in GDP has been declined from 16 to 10 percent (World Bank, 2021). If we look at Pakistan’s share in global trade, it is dropped from 0.15 percent in 2005 to 0.12 percent in 2021. Export competitiveness of Pakistan is shrinking, while the competitors like Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam are experiencing expansion in export competitiveness. The stagnancy in Pakistan’s exports brings about a number of challenges like increasing current account deficit, burden of foreign debt, exchange rate, and other macroeconomic problems (Government of Pakistan, 2021-22; Defever, et al. 2020). Various reasons of declining export are suggested by the economists and researchers. To gather concrete evidence, a comprehensive desk review or literature review is required to unleash what factors are bringing down Pakistan’ exports. For that purpose, the underlying piece of research aims to weave up a review of existing literature on exports and unfolds the significant factors which influence exports.

What are the Factors Making Pakistan’s Exports Stagnant? Insight from Literature Review

Lowering exports is considered as one of the paramount reasons of widening trade deficit of Pakistan, which has become a long-standing challenge that country is facing since the beginning of the century. During the last two decades, the contribution of exports in GDP has been declined from 16 to 10 percent (World Bank, 2021). If we look at Pakistan’s share in global trade, it is dropped from 0.15 percent in 2005 to 0.12 percent in 2021. Export competitiveness of Pakistan is shrinking, while the competitors like Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam are experiencing expansion in export competitiveness. The stagnancy in Pakistan’s exports brings about a number of challenges like increasing current account deficit, burden of foreign debt, exchange rate, and other macroeconomic problems (Government of Pakistan, 2021-22; Defever, et al. 2020). Various reasons of declining export are suggested by the economists and researchers. To gather concrete evidence, a comprehensive desk review or literature review is required to unleash what factors are bringing down Pakistan’ exports. For that purpose, the underlying piece of research aims to weave up a review of existing literature on exports and unfolds the significant factors which influence exports.

Ranking Countries According to Logistics and International Trade Efficiencies via REF-III

The interrelation between logistics and international trade is crucial for understanding a country's ability to increase its share in global trade. An adequate and well-integrated logistics sector and infrastructure are required for this purpose. This study employs the novel Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach known as REF-III and two distinct models to investigate the activities of countries in terms of infrastructure, logistics, international trade, and economic growth. The results from both models indicate that China and Russia are leading the rankings. However, when focusing on the efficiency of trade and economic growth, the United States occupies the first place. Notably, several Caucasian and Balkan countries rank poorly in both models, possibly due to the multiple crises, wars, and turmoil they have experienced over the past forty years. The investments and improvements made in infrastructure and logistics by the countries excelling in global trade and logistics should serve as a model for other nations to emulate.

Changing trends of Foreign Trade in the Context of Developing Countries

With lots of up and downs in last few years, especially during the pandemic period, the economy of developing countries growing rapidly. All countries are focusing on SDGs and constantly striving for the eradication of hunger, poverty, unemployment and skill development. The current study focuses on the trends and practices followed by the developing countries in foreign trades. Last twenty years data is collected and computed to compare the global trade, evolution of LDCs’ and developing economies’ share of global trade. One of the forces reshaping global value chains is a change in the geography of global demand. The major trends in developing countries trade performance are also compared. The study overview major trends in the participation of developing countries in world trade over the past two decades, followed by a brief examination of some of the key factors that were associated with trends for different groups of developing countries After analyzing the statistical data from world bank studies, shows that the developing countries already play a sustainable role in world trade and their significance is only expected to rise. As they diversify and grow as export markets, emerging economics will come to dominate international trade. As the share and importance of developing countries increases, the share of world trade occurring among developing countries will continue to rise.

WTO Subsidy Disciplines

AbstractDecades of negotiation to extend the GATT/WTO system to address subsidies have never produced the sort of uniform, scheduled rules that apply to tariffs or even services. Instead, WTO members have developed rules to demarcate permissible and impermissible subsidies. In this paper, I argue that the WTO approach is now hampered by shifts in the share of global trade away from geopolitically aligned, wealthy states and the growth of global supply chains. These pressures were magnified by the accession of China, with its centrality to global trade and recurrent geopolitical tensions with the United States. The challenges in facing cooperation over subsidies suggest limits to the ability for a ‘rules based’ approach to handle substantial changes in the global trading system.

Fair Trade: Shortcomings and contemporary challenges

The aim of this paper is presenting the Fair Trade movement in pragmatic categories, disassembling the core components to discuss them more closely, and drawing an image of what Fair Trade really is. This article has also confronted over 60-year-old fundamentals of Fair Trade with modern global problems and new political doctrines, shedding the light onto future prospects of the movement. By collecting the data and analysing the mechanisms of the Fair Trade model, this paper has attempted to discuss the current shape and effects of Fair Trade, exposing the flaws and the assets of the organization to see if its role is significant in the world trade system. The conclusions are mainly negative — Fair Trade has a minimal share in global trade, presents discussable effects on economic well-being of people and outdated agricultural doctrine, putting in question its sustainability. Fair Trade has rarely been subject to analysis from this perspective, and it can prove to be a starting point for future research.

Will India's Disengaging Trade Policy Restrict It from Playing a Greater Global Role?

AbstractIndia's ambition of playing a prominent role in regional and global affairs has been particularly visible since the assumption of office by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in May 2014. The ambition has resulted in India's external engagement, abandoning the posturing of non-alignment for a more proactive multi-alignment strategy. Its efforts to engage with major powers such as the US and China, as well as other global middle powers such as Japan, the UK, and Australia, have been positioned on rapid economic progress, enabled by one of the fastest rates of growth among major economies. Attempts to expand global strategic influence, a natural outcome of robust economic expansion, should have seen India pursuing an aggressive outward-oriented external trade policy for increasing its share in global trade. India, though, has shown a marked resistance to open trade, including being reluctant to engage in regional and bilateral trade negotiations. This paper examines the dichotomy between India's desire to play a prominent global role and its aversion to open trade policies. Attributing the inward-looking approach to lack of competitiveness of Indian industry, absence of domestic pro-trade constituencies, and discomfort in negotiating new-generation trade issues, the paper argues India's quest for greater global strategic influence might be adversely affected by its restrictive trade policies.

Blame the Foreigners? Exports and Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in China

This paper provides an overhaul of the contribution of exports to industrial sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions in Chinese cities. My estimation strategy exploits the import demand shocks of export destination markets (net of their demand for Chinese products) as a plausibly exogenous source of variation in the cities' exports. The baseline results show that a 10 percentage-point increase in export shock (weighted by the exporting industry's relative emission intensity) leads to a 1.6 percentage-point rise in SO2 emissions, equivalent to a 635-ton increase per year for an average Chinese city. This estimate remains qualitatively stable to an array of robustness checks by accounting for: alternative controls for production for domestic sales shocks, the city market share in global trade, and the influence of a lagged impact of foreign demand shocks. Tentative evidence also suggests that production for exports does not contribute to nationwide emission intensity drop. A further anatomy shows with weak evidence that foreign-owned firms and deeper contractual links with the global production network could play a positive role in reducing the environmental footprint of industrial activities.

The role of national trade logistics in the export trade of African countries

Background: This article critically examines the role of trade logistics in the exports of African countries. The performance of the trade logistics of African countries was analysed using the World Bank logistics performance index (LPI) and its components. The study was conducted based on the performance statistics of countries around the world in 2016. Objectives: The aim of this study was to identify African countries’ inefficient trade logistics areas based on LPI components for future improvement; and to investigate the relevance of trade logistics performance of African countries on export values in order to boost the region’s merchandise export share in the global market. Method: The methodological approach employed in this study is a combination of both descriptive and inferential data analysis. The African countries’ logistics performance in international trade was summarised using LPI median values. The effect of the performance of trade logistics on exports was explored based on a gravity model of international trade. For the estimation, the Heckman selection approach was applied to incorporate zero bilateral trades. Results: On average, African countries experience the lowest LPI score, particularly in terms of quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure, and customs and border clearance. A successful improvement in these areas would enhance African countries’ supply chain deliveries including on-time delivery, tracking and tracing and international shipments in cross-border transactions. Conclusion: The evidence from the gravity model estimates of this study suggests that an improvement in any of the LPI components can lead to significant growth in the export of African countries. This could then increase the African merchandise export share in global trade. The gravity model results also show that landlocked countries have lower trade flows than their coastal neighbours.

Challenges to the trade system: The potential impact of changes in future trade policy

Abstract Current tensions in global trade policy raise the question which direction global trade will take in the future. In this paper a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is employed to explore the impact on the global economy of five scenarios for future trade policy: passive isolation of the US; active isolation of the US; a global trade war; a breakdown of trade cooperation; and a revival of multilateralism. The simulations show that future trade policy could have important consequences for global trade: for the importance of different regions in the global economy; for the growth of global trade; for real incomes in different regions; and for the organization of global value chains. The simulations indicate that the US share in global trade would fall moderately under passive and active isolation and considerably under the trade war scenarios. The share of manufacturing in GDP is hardly affected by trade policy and mainly driven by structural change. Real in- come in the US would fall in most scenarios, whereas China would suffer substantially from a global trade war and the EU heavily from a breakdown of trade cooperation. The trade-to-income elasticity varies from more than 1.3 under a revival of multilateralism to 0.5 under a breakdown of international cooperation. Value chains are projected to shift away from the US towards other regions in the isolation scenarios.

Measuring volatility linkage, clustering and sensitivity to external shocks in Nigerian stock index

Recent events in the global economy have further exposed the fear and uneasiness in the minds of investors around the world. The resort to protectionist policies by nations around the world as reaction to the attempt by US President Donald Trump to use higher tariffs to increase his country's share of global trade has made global investors seek safe havens. This paper measures stock market volatility and linkages among three stock markets. EGARCH and TGARCH models were employed in analysing univariate volatility in the indices, while bivariate GARCH (diagonal BEKK) was employed in measuring returns linkages. The result of the analysis shows that markets exhibit evidence of asymmetry and persistence in volatility; volatility from previous periods significantly affects current period and markets react with speed to news of volatility. In terms of portfolio diversification, NSE-IST provides better opportunity followed by NSE-JSE and then JSE-IST.

Chinese Currency Devaluation and the Economic Implications for Nigeria

The decision of Chinese government to devalue the Yuan has attracted serious condemnation by majorly developed economies, despite the government position that the devaluation was aimed at aligning the Yuan with the market rate. The general argument is anchored on the notion that the devaluation was a strategy to increase China's share of global trade by making its goods cheaper in the international market. This thinking is influenced by the long standing Mundell–Fleming model, which aligned with the theory that competitive devaluation is detrimental to the world economy, because of beggar-thy-neighbour welfare effect. The situation is compelling other countries to respond by improving their balance of trade in response to China tactics. The inability of developing economies to respond to this global trade war could be attributed to factors such as colonialism, presence of agency of restraints, complementarity among developing countries, and other institutional rigidities such as technological deficiency, infrastructure deficit, and commodity based exports, among others. Chinese currency devaluation has impacted meaningfully on the Nigeria economy given the fact that Nigeria maintains strong economic ties with China. The paper argues that for developing economies to effectively respond to competitive devaluation, they must close their borders to certain goods, improve infrastructure, prioritize technological transfer, embrace value-added production, and eliminate institution rigidities that hinder the ease of doing business.

International Economic Law In Africa: Is the African Continental Free Trade Area a Viable Project?

Africa’s share of global trade has declined over time in spite of efforts aimed at increased participation in international trade. With the proliferation of regional economic communities on the continent, there would have been the expectation that, at least, intra-regional and intra-African trade would steadily increase and contribute significantly to Africa’s contribution to international trade. However, due in part to export of largely unrefined natural minerals, a predominant agrarian economy, and a lack of diversified exports intra-African trade has continued to be quite sluggish. The signing of the African Continental Free Trade Area thus holds a lot of potential for shoring up intra-African trade and economic performance. However, while rules aimed at breaking down the barriers to intra-African trade are steps in the right direction, they are not self-enforcing. The institutional mechanisms established to ensure compliance with the rules on trade liberalization on the continent are of vital importance. If the established institutions fail, the prospect of a viable African Continental Free Trade Area will become a mirage. This article critiques some of the provisions on legislative and judicial decision-making in the Agreement Establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area and suggests ways of enhancing the performance of the established legislative and judicial systems. It also conducts a brief analysis of the viability of the rules of origin regime in the African Continental Free Trade Area.

The role of China in the world economy: evidence from a global VAR model

ABSTRACTSince the 1980s, China has experienced very high economic growth, and its share in global trade has increased rapidly. Currently, however, the Chinese economy is rebalancing, and its growth is slowing. This paper investigates the spillover effects on other countries of a negative demand shock and negative stock price shock in the Chinese economy. We apply a global vector autoregressive model, which enables us to model international linkages between countries. Our results show that a one per cent negative China GDP shock reduces global growth by 0.22% in the short run. We find that GDP shock affects emerging economies more strongly than advanced economies. We also show that a stock price shock affects only emerging economies and does not affect advanced economies.

Impact of the Establishment of E-Commerce on Export Performance of Companies in Guilan Province

Export development in all countries is as an economic strategy that leads to balance its relative share of the world population and its relative share of global trade. Today, e-commerce and solutions of e-business has led to facilitate and expedite the export process. Effective use of the Internet is a low-cost way to enter the international markets for companies that intend to enter the field of export. The research method was descriptive survey and questionnaire that its questions were adjusted to fit the variables discussed in this study.The statistical population included export companies in Guilan Province in 1393, of which there are over 17 companies.As the number of people who make up society is limited, research sample size on the basis of Cochran formula is at least 133.To analyze the data, SPSS, and Pearson correlation and linear regression analysis simple methods was used in order to determine the relationship between variables and the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable. The results of correlation analysis showed a positive impact of e-commerce effective factors (managerial, organizational, cost, technological, cultural, environmental, market) on Export performance of firms.The regression analysis showed that among the seven predictor variable, variables of management, market, organizational, environmental, technological, cultural and cost are the best predictors of export performance DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2016.v7n2s1p526

India’s Possible Response to the Challenge of the Mega-regionals

The mega-regional trade agreements, particularly the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and the Trade in Services Agreement, represent a new phenomenon for the global trading system. As major preferential trade agreements that involve the world’s largest economies (the United States and the European Union), they cover a large share of global trade and, thus, generate large spillover effects on non-parties to the negotiations. Further, the ambitious rule-making agenda shifts the locus of global rule-making and standard-setting from the inclusive World Trade Organization to the small number of participants in these negotiations. These rules and standards will shape markets and, thus, amplify the direct effect of discriminatory preferences. This article discusses the factors driving the mega-regionals, considers the significance of these negotiations for excluded parties, and suggests how India, in particular, might respond.

Bilateral Trade Relations between India and Pakistan: Recent Experience and Future Prospects

India and Pakistan are two most populous and largest economies of the South Asian region, however, official bilateral trade accounts for only less than one per cent of India's global trade but despite of it, their rapprochement has the potential to change the geopolitical dynamics of India. In this context, present study also examined bilateral trade relationship in terms of share in global trade, bilateral trade flow, trade intensities, trade reciprocities, revealed comparative advantages, possibility of intra industry trade along with overall potential of trade between the two for the period 1996 to 2014. The various indices like export intensity index, import intensity index, trade reciprocity index, revealed comparative advantage index, intra industry index, etc. have been used to analyse the trade relationship. The study highlights that the overall bilateral trade relation are seems to be week and multi-pronged strategy encompassing of reduction in existing high rates of tariff and non-tariff barriers as well as in trade costs of at least on specific products of the interest of both countries, reduction in infrastructural and financial bottlenecks, opening up of more trade routes through sea; rail as well as road, expansion of investment and technology transfer in the production and marketing of those products which enjoy high revealed comparative advantage, dilution of multiple rules and regulations, trade diversification and promotion through trade facilitation measures like make in India, digital India and skill India programs, granting MFN status to India as soon as possible to reduce cost and loss of revenue through informal trade, solution to transit rights etc. is urgently required to improve the existing trade relations.

India's Response to the Challenge of the Mega-Regionals

The mega-regional trade agreements, particularly the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and the Trade in Services Agreement (TISA), represent a new phenomenon for the trading system. As major preferential trade agreements that involve the world’s largest economies (the United States and the European Union) they cover a large share of global trade and, thus, generate large spillover effects on non-parties to the negotiations. Further, the ambitious rule-making agenda shifts the locus of global rule-making and standard-setting from the inclusive World Trade Organization to the small number of participants in these negotiations. These rules and standards will shape markets and, thus, amplify the direct effect of discriminatory preferences. This note discusses the factors driving the mega-regionals, considers the significance of these negotiations for excluded parties, and suggests how India, in particular, might respond.

Deregulation in development project: A case of Dhamra port project in Odisha

The significance of transport sector is taking precedence over other sectors especially after globalisation. The performance of minor port has outpaced the major port in recent past. With the pursuit of higher growth of international trade, government lays emphasis on the maritime mode of transport as it entails quite significant share in global trade in India. In the process, there is regulatory captures which sideline the existing rules and regulations and ignore the externalities stemming from the development project. There is flouting of laws and regulation in the development of Dhamra port, a minor port located in Bhadrak district of Odisha. This paper attempts to analyse the lacunae in the regulatory framework and advantage which paved the path for development of minor Dhamra port. It also discusses how those regulations have been manipulated to keep the interest of the private port proponents.

Why Should Sub-Saharan Africa Care about the Doha Development Round?

Abstract In recent years sub-Saharan Africa, notwithstanding the global financial crisis, has increased its share in global trade and investment flows. This has led to an appreciable improvement in development levels, albeit off a small base. However, these patterns are still dominated by commodity flows and investment, and remain marginal on the global stage. Increased trade and investment flows, particularly related to network services, would be of great benefit to the sub-continent. Yet many domestic regulatory constraints remain. Furthermore, substantial international market distortions, particularly in agricultural trade, inhibit economic diversification into more value-adding activities. The Doha development round could, if concluded, go a long way towards addressing these barriers. Ultimately it could prove more consequential to the sub-continent’s development trajectory than regional economic integration. The latter, whilst important, is shallow and too reliant on institution-intensive forms mimicking the European Union. Overall therefore this paper motivates for an African trade agenda focused on concluding the Doha round.