Share Of Agricultural Employment Research Articles

Family migration and structural transformation

AbstractThis paper integrates the migration decisions of married couples into a multi‐sector spatial model, investigating their impact on structural transformation, productivity and gender wage gap. Focusing on China, a country characterized by a higher share of agricultural employment and a lower share in services compared with countries with similar income, we uncover a significant gender gap in migration costs among rural married couples. Furthermore, while migration costs have decreased for all demographic groups from 2000 to 2010, the decline was least pronounced for married couples when both partners left agriculture. We find that reducing migration costs for married couples who migrate together would lead to a decline in agricultural employment, a rise in service sector employment, an increase in aggregate productivity and a narrowing of the gender wage gap. Eliminating the gender differences in migration costs would also increase service sector employment and reduce the gender wage gap.

Challenges in Chinese Path to Modernization of Agriculture and Rural Areas: A Comparison With the U.S.

This study establishes, for the first time, an index system for comparing agricultural and rural modernization in China and the United States, which aims to identify key challenges in China’s agricultural and rural development by contrasting indicators from both countries. Overall, China’s current level of agriculture and rural modernization is akin to that of the United States in the 1960s and 1970s, with an approximate time lag of 60 years. China exhibits the largest gap with the U.S. in agricultural modernization and the smallest gap in rural modernization. Three key indicators in China that require improvement compared to the United States are the disposable income of rural residents, the population size supported by each agricultural laborer, and the share of agricultural employment. This research lays down a theoretical foundation and practical strategies for advancing the Chinese path to agriculture and modernization in rural areas.

Damping accumulated discrete MGM(1, m) power model and its application to forecasting agricultural output value share and employment share

PurposeThe damping accumulated discrete MGM(1, m) power model is proposed for the problem of forecasting the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment in China.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the damping accumulated discrete MGM(1, m) power model was developed based on the idea of discrete modelling by introducing a damping accumulated generating operator and power index. The new model can better identify the non-linear characteristics existing between different factors in the multivariate system and can accurately describe and forecast the trend of changes between data series and each of them.FindingsThe validity and rationality of the new model are verified through numerical experiment. It is forecasted that in 2023, the share of agricultural output value in China will be 7.14% and the share of agricultural employment will be 21.98%, with an overall decreasing trend.Practical implicationsThe simultaneous decline in the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment is a common feature of countries that have achieved agricultural modernisation. Accurate forecasts of the share of agricultural output value and the share of employment can provide an important scientific basis for formulating appropriate agricultural development targets and policies in China.Originality/valueThe new model proposed in this study fully considers the importance of new information and has higher stability. The differential evolutionary algorithm was used to optimise the model parameters.

Schooling, Skill Demand, and Differential Fertility in the Process of Structural Transformation

Demography and structural transformation are interrelated, and depend critically on education. At the turn of the twentieth century, US parents began having fewer children while increasing educational investment per child. This quantity-quality tradeoff facilitated job reallocation from the low-skilled agricultural sector to the high-skilled nonagricultural sector. This transformation is examined in a heterogeneous agent model with a nondegenerate human capital distribution, focusing on how fertility and education decisions affect structural transformation. The result shows that the quantity-quality decisions account for up to approximately one-third of the decline in the agricultural employment share. (JEL E24, I21, I26, J11, J13, J24, N31)

Sectoral Employment Shares Shape Economic Complexity: Empirical Evidence from African Countries

Since the physiocrats, agriculture has been seen as a panacea for economic development. However, studies suggest that manufacturing and, recently, advanced service industries are the engine of economic growth. This study analyzes how employment structure contributes to economic complexity (EC) in African countries. To achieve this objective, it uses data spanning 1996–2017 on 27 African countries and applies the ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and system generalized method of moments estimators. Results suggest that due to its inability to admit many divisions or develop production linkages, agriculture’s employment growth is negatively associated with EC. Thus, there are better fits for enhancing complex output in Africa than a more significant share of agricultural employment. On the contrary, employment growth in industry and services enhances the production of sophisticated goods. These findings are robust after several sensitivity checks. Among policy implications from these findings, agriculture should shift from subsistence to mechanized farming, allowing excess workers to reallocate to more productive sectors of industry and advanced services. JEL Classification C26, J21, O1, O55

Regional resilience to the Covid-19 shock in Polish regions: how is it different from resilience to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis?

ABSTRACT The world economy has experienced two major economic shocks over the past 15 years: the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–09 and the Covid-19 pandemic. The purpose of this study is to link regional economies’ resilience to these extreme events while investigating the regional determinants of resistance to the Covid-19 shock and accounting for spatial spillovers. A total of 380 Polish NUTS-4 regions are analysed using spatial modelling techniques. Our primary finding is that the regional economic resistance to the 2008–09 global crisis and that of the Covid-19 pandemic are positively related. Specifically, the regions that were less affected by the first wave of the global crisis in 2009 were also more resistant to the Covid-19 shock in 2020, despite the fundamentally different anatomies of these shocks. Moreover, we find that the regions with higher production per capita were less resistant to the Covid-19 shock. This result could be attributed to the fact that industrial clusters are often integrated into global value chains, which were severely affected by the 2020 pandemic. Finally, we show that regions with a higher share of agricultural employment were generally more resistant to the Covid-19 shock, although the specifics of this sector in the eastern parts of Poland reduced the resistance to some extent. Generally, our results support the rationale behind the explicit modelling of spatial spillovers in the context of investigating regional resilience. We find that spatial spillovers in the resistance to the Covid-19 shock are significant and positive.

The impact of broadband on poverty reduction in rural Ecuador

This study examines the impact of broadband deployment on labor income and employment (in both level and composition) in rural Ecuador. The analysis spans the 2011 to 2019 period, during which the share of rural households covered by high-speed broadband increased from 14.5% to 83%. The empirical strategy exploits variations in the timing of network deployment, as well as the fact that several rural areas remained unserved by 2019. To estimate impact, the study uses a semi-parametric alternative to the standard two-way fixed-effects (TWFE) estimator proposed by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021). Overall, the findings indicate that broadband deployment in rural areas is associated with measurable gains in labor income and employment. Our income model estimates range from an increase of 14% to 21% above the expected level had broadband not been deployed in these areas. The impact estimates on employment are more modest, ranging from 3% to 5% (depending on the specification) above the mean employment level over the study period. Additionally, our results corroborate that ICTs help diversify employment opportunities, as the share of agricultural employment falls in the connected areas. The findings also suggest that the economic benefits associated with broadband favor younger workers, presumably because their skills better match the newly created jobs.

Structural Change in East Africa: Patterns and Drivers

This study analyzes structural change patterns and derivers in nine East African countries for the years between 1990 and 2018. The task presented value-added, employment share, and productivity for twelve sectors using the Economic Transformation database of Groningen University. From the output side, the study result found a reduced agricultural share in GDP compared to that of service and industrial sectors. From the employment perspective, a reduction of employment was also observed in the agricultural sector. The sector released labour to other sectors and has also room to make additional releases as the productivity gap between the agriculture and other sectors is high. The study also found positive labour productivity growth during the period. The productivity growth was sourced from within, between and dynamic effect in combination; though, the lion share was sourced from between (structural change) sources. Sect orally, the manufacturing industry was punching below its weight. In sampled countries on average, only 4 per cent contribution was done by the manufacturing sector for overall structural change. Further, the result from the empirical task demonstrated that, the structural change observed in the region was potentially affected by initial agricultural employment share in the economy, investment, and population size. Keywords : productivity, productivity growth, structural change, value-added, employment share, East Africa. DOI: 10.7176/JESD/13-13-02 Publication date: July 31 st 2022

The decline in agricultural share and agricultural industrialization—some stylized facts and theoretical explanations

PurposeThe decline in the share of agriculture in both output and employment is a central feature of structural transformation. The authors present the distinct features between developed and developing countries in the process of agricultural share decline and dig into the real changes that occurred in the agricultural sector during the rapid decline in the agricultural share.Design/methodology/approachTaking the declining share of agriculture as a clue, the authors depict heterogeneous characteristics in the declining share of agriculture in developed and developing countries. Secondly, by criticizing the factor substitution hypothesis, the authors argue that the essence of agricultural transformation is the process of agricultural industrialization characterized by the combination, reconstruction, and continual changes of agricultural production factors. Finally, based on the theory of agricultural industrialization, this paper analyzes the combination of factors in different stages of declining agricultural share in typical economies.FindingsIn this paper, the authors find that the rapid decline in agricultural employment share is accompanied by an increase in the returns to agricultural production in developed economies. In contrast, the decline in agricultural employment share in developing economies lags, and agricultural production efficiency is way much poorer than that of developed economies. Taking the United States and Japan as examples, the authors find that the agricultural sector underwent agricultural industrialization, featured by reconstruction and upgrades of production factors combination.Originality/valueThe authors systematically reveal why huge changes occurred in the agricultural sector in developed economies during structural transformation, and also provide further thoughts and lessons for developing countries to accomplish agricultural modernization.

Evolving gaps: Occupational structure in southern and northern Italy, 1400–1861

AbstractDuring the Risorgimento (1800–61), southern Italy was less industrial than central‐northern Italy and initially agricultural provinces in the north saw rapid structural transformation. During the Renaissance (1400–1600), structural transformation in the south led to a near halving of the initial difference in agricultural employment share between the centre‐north and the south, but convergence came to a halt with the ‘seventeenth‐century crisis’. These trends suggest that regional inequality was evolving rather than persistent.

CHANGING ROLE OF AGRICULTURE IN INCOME, EMPLOYMENT AND VALUE ADDED PER WORKER IN MAJOR COUNTRIES

Agriculture sector has the largest share in employment and value added for many developing countries. This paper analyses the spatial contribution of agriculture sector to income, employment and per worker value added in top thirty countries which have highest share in agriculture sector in the World. The success of agricultural sector in income and employment has been designated to green revolution in India. China has proceeded with the process of structural change very rapidly. Ethiopia has the highest share of agriculture in employment which is an agriculture dominant country. The study gives clear picture that development of agriculture has been the essential element of structural transformation and will continue to be crucial in transformation in the future. The estimates of this study indicate that the changing role of agriculture in income and employment in the major countries followed by structural change has led to increasing the integration of the economies of the countries and their changing patterns of interlinkages between the agriculture sector and the other sectors in countries.

Convergence, Development, and Energy-Intensive Infrastructure in Africa: A Review of the Evidence

The structural changes in an economy that accompany its growth to high-income status have been predictable in Europe, the United States, and Asia, characterized by declining employment in agriculture and rising levels of urbanization driven by jobs in the modern industrial sector. As agricultural productivity rises, the share of people employed in agriculture declines, and both urbanization and employment in manufacturing increase. Food prices fall relative to wages, causing the share of income spent on food to decline to very low levels. Asian countries have followed a similar path, although at a much faster pace. Africa, however, is different. Despite a high share of the population in urban areas, most African countries have yet to see significant increases in agricultural productivity that might drive industrial growth and jobs. The rising share of urban population has not been matched by increases in agricultural productivity, falling food prices, or the emergence of a viable industrial sector. Available evidence shows that agricultural yields in Africa are low and food is costly, while the share of employment in agriculture remains high. For the process of structural transformation to get underway, African countries must invest in the manufacture of fertilizer, develop better methods of water control, improve transportation, and invest in cold storage. Each of these interventions requires significant amounts of energy, including energy from fossil fuels, and they are not replaceable—countries have managed structural transformation in different ways but to date none have leapfrogged the process.

Malawi’s slowly changing employment landscape and its implications for youth

ABSTRACT We examine Malawi’s employment landscape between 2004/05 and 2016/17, focusing on sectoral change and youth entering the workforce. Little evidence of a structural transformation in cross sectoral patterns of employment is found. The share of employment in agriculture rose slightly over the period, though the share of full time equivalent jobs declined in the sector. The analysis shows that younger youth are not participating in the limited employment growth in the service sector. Agriculture remains the sector in which most Malawians first obtain employment. Only later in their working lives are Malawian workers, particularly males, in a position to obtain work outside of agriculture. With limited structural change occurring in the economy, Malawi’s challenging employment landscape for youth is characterised by a scarcity of jobs outside agriculture and insufficient work within the sector.

Servicification of investment and structural transformation: The case of China

Structural transformation is a key feature of economic development. Traditional literature attributes it to changes in the sectoral composition of consumption. Different from it, we argue that “servicification” of investment goods, induced by investment-composition technological change, becomes an increasingly important reason for structural transformation, particularly for the rise of the services economy. Our study of the input output tables finds that the share of service inputs in investment goods has grown significantly in many countries since the 1980s, especially for investment-intensive economies such as China. To assess if the investment channel is quantitatively significant, we build a standard model with three broad sectors, but instead add an investment production function employing factors from all three sectors. Moreover, we incorporate investment-composition technological change by allowing the productivities of the three sectoral inputs to evolve over time. We calibrate the model to the Chinese economy from 1981 to 2014 and perform counter-factual experiments accordingly. We find that investment-composition technological change accounts for 33.1% decline in employment share of agriculture, 36.0% increase in employment share of manufacturing and 31.5% increase in employment share of services over the period. The magnitude of this effect on the share of services keeps growing, particularly after 2000. Our findings are not unique for China, but also apply to other economies experiencing the “servicification” of investment.

DETERMINAN TINGKAT PARTISIPASI ANGKATAN KERJA PEREMPUAN DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2015-2019 MENGGUNAKAN MODEL REGRESI DATA PANEL

Tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja (TPAK) perempuan di Indonesia selalu lebih rendah dari TPAK laki-laki, bahkan perbedaannya sangat jauh dan tidak pernah mengerucut. Selain itu, tren TPAK perempuan mengalami stagnasi pada kisaran 50 persen selama lebih dari satu dekade terakhir. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyelidiki determinan TPAK perempuan di Indonesia tahun 2015-2019. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis inferensia dengan model regresi data panel. Fixed efffect model (FEM) dengan metode seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) dipilih sebagai model terbaik untuk melakukan estimasi model regresi data panel. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa semakin tinggi rata-rata lama sekolah (RLS) perempuan, upah tenaga kerja perempuan, jumlah tenaga kerja sektor industri pengolahan, jumlah tenaga kerja sektor pertanian dan produk domestik regional bruto atas dasar harga konstan (PDRB ADHK) dapat meningkatkan TPAK perempuan di Indonesia. Sementara itu, semakin tinggi jumlah penduduk yang mengurus rumah tangga dapat menurunkan TPAK perempuan di Indonesia.

The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean

In this paper, I estimate intergenerational mobility (IGM) in education using cross-sectional data from 91 censuses that span 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) over half a century. I measure upward mobility as the likelihood of obtaining at least a primary education for individuals whose parents did not finish primary school, whereas downward mobility as the likelihood of failing to complete primary education for individuals whose parents completed at least primary school. In addition, I explore the geography of educational IGM using nearly 400 “provinces” (coarse administrative units similar to states in the U.S.) and more than 6,000 “districts” (fine administrative units similar to counties in the U.S.). I document wide cross-country and within-country heterogeneity. In LAC, the distance between the most and least upwardly mobile country is close to what has been recently documented in Africa, although the least mobile countries in Africa are less mobile than the least mobile in LAC. I document a declining trend in the mobility gap between urban and rural populations, but I do not find important differences by gender. Within countries, the level of mobility is highly correlated to the share of primary completion of the previous generation, which suggests a high level of inertia. In addition, upward (downward) mobility is negatively (positively) correlated to distance to the capital and the share of employment in agriculture, but positively (negatively) correlated to the share of employment in industry.

Farmers shaping the landscape: how do they influence the form of landscape and land use structure in Czechia?

In the developed countries the share of agriculture in employment and economy is small, but a large proportion of land is used for agricultural purposes. Therefore, farmers have a significant influence on the form of landscape and land use. The goal of this article is to explain how the landscape form and land-use structure in Czechia are influenced by the farmers’ decisions. In the article mainly qualitative data were used. The analysis is based on the results of fifteen semi-structured interviews with farmers in the model area. The results of the study showed that farmers in Czechia have a significant influence on the landscape form and land-use structure, whereas these decisions mainly depend on their motivation to farm in a specific form. The results also showed that social capital doesn’t have any direct influence on the landscape form and land-use structure in Czechia.

Selection and Absolute Advantage in Farming and Entrepreneurship∗

Output per worker is lower in poor countries than in rich countries, and relatively more so in the agricultural sector. Sorting of heterogeneous workers can contribute to explain this fact if comparative and absolute advantage are aligned in agriculture, implying that average productivity in agriculture increases as the agricultural employment share decreases. We empirically investigate the correlation between comparative and absolute advantage using representative household-level panel data from four Sub-Saharan African countries. Around one third of households engage in both agriculture and non-farming entrepreneurship.We find that more productive farming households are more likely to also engage in non-farm entrepreneurship, allocate more hours to it if they do, and are more likely to enter it if not yet active. All three pieces of evidence imply that comparative and absolute advantage are negatively correlated – misaligned – in agriculture, casting doubt on the importance of selection as a root cause of the agricultural productivity gap.

Weather Shocks and Labor Allocation: Evidence from Rural Brazil

We examine the effects of rainfall shocks on household work decisions in Brazil. We show that rural farming households increase labor supply in non‐agricultural sectors during drought episodes. An additional drought month per year is associated with greater likelihood of holding more than one job, lower share of agricultural employment, and more time spent performing a secondary job. Together, these findings suggest that households alter their labor decisions to mitigate the consequences of weather shocks.

Employment Responses to EU Food Safety Regulations: A Gendered Perspective

In many developing countries, women constitute the bulk of agricultural sector’s workers and might be susceptible to job loss or gain in the presence of regulations among which are food safety regulations. Thus, this study investigates the gender implications of EU food safety regulations on agricultural labour market between 1995 and 2012 using a panel data of 90 developing countries. In addition, it also investigates how the existing gender-specific obstacles and opportunities affect women’s ability to engage effectively in the agricultural sector and benefit from such regulations. Our results show that in many of the countries considered, women are disproportionately disadvantaged in the agricultural sector not only because of the effect of the food regulations but also because of their unequal access to opportunities such as gender inequality in both secondary and tertiary schooling as well as low quality of time-saving infrastructure which make them less available for gainful employment. However, the near gender parity achieved in primary education increases their agricultural employment share. Thus, investment in infrastructure that reduces women care burden, and building the educational capacity of women could work to remove these gender-specific obstacles and enable women to respond to employment opportunities.