Share Of Trade Research Articles

Economic Impact on Russia After the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

Based on the premise of the outbreak of war in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict war, the following article examines the impact on the Russian macro and micro economy. Raw oil, fertilizer fuels and gas energy are the main pillars of the Russian economy, while the domestic economy is dominated by the service sector. The methodology of research on the Russian economy is the integration of information and data through academic articles. One of the main sources of damage to the Russian economy was found to be the series of economic sanctions implemented by the United States and the European Union, and the main groups affected by these losses, in terms of data, were the wealthy Russians and senior members of the government leadership. At the macro level, Russian energy exports have suffered a severe setback, with a larger percentage drop compared to previous years. In the meanwhile, however, the losses to the Russian economy and the impact from inflation have been reduced by increasing the share of trade with the Chinese market and improving the domestic economic policies. This study will help to explore the development of a more appropriate economic policy in Russia and the direction of foreign trade, as well as recommendations for the reorganization of the economic structure in the country. However, the drawback of the study is that the material or content of the study may not always have a clear political stance, which may affect the judgment of researcher to the real state of the Russian economy.

The role of intermediate factors in China's energy consumption from the perspective of global production chain

With the fragmentation of global production, the share of intermediate trade in international trade has increased significantly. Nevertheless, more research must be done on how intermediate trade factors influence energy consumption. This paper utilized the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model to categorize China's energy utilization into six parts based on its position within the global production chain. Additionally, it examined the impact of intermediate factors on China's energy consumption through index decomposition analysis (IDA). The results revealed that: (1) from 2000 to 2014, intermediate factors led to an increase of 1380.96Mtces in China's energy consumption, accounting for around 37% of the national total; (2) the reduction in efficiency is the primary cause of the surge in domestic intermediate energy consumption, while the increase in market proportion is the dominant driver promoting international intermediate energy consumption growth; (3) the international intermediate proportion contributed the most among all intermediate factors. Drawing upon the findings above, this paper proposed policy recommendations to regulate China's rising energy consumption, precisely the escalation of intermediate process energy usage, focusing on the global production chain.

Service Trade Liberalization, Trade Elasticities and Welfare

ABSTRACTThis paper estimates the welfare effects of service trade liberalization at the country-sector level. We build a panel dataset combining information on service trade restriction index and bilateral service trade flows for 45 countries and estimate the service trade elasticity for cross-country heterogeneity at short horizons. Findings suggest that countries with smaller service trade share have greater the service trade cost elasticity, and the service trade elasticity ranges from 0.11 to 12.61. Then, we develop the CP mode to quantify the welfare effects from service trade liberalization. This study finds a significant positive relationship between service trade and welfare. During the 2014 –2018 period, service trade liberalization improved global welfare by 1.01%. The empirical results indicate that service trade liberalization mainly improves welfare through productivity effect and scale effect, with the former effect having a greater impact than the latter.

The Impact of Foreign Trade in the Graduation Process of Asian Least-Developed Countries (LDCs)

AbstractThe importance of development studies comes from the need to assess and solve economic problems. Graduation from LDC status represents an important milestone in their development path. This research tries to deepen on the relationship between the fulfillment of the “graduation criteria” established by the United Nations and the evolution of the foreign trade indices of a group of Asian LDCs about to graduate (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Laos, Timor-Leste, Nepal, and Myanmar), checking how trade, one of its engines for economic development, has involved during the last years and, specifically, on their way to graduation. First, the characteristics of the LDCs and the criteria to exclude them from the list are analyzed. Second, a set of indices are presented to find out the trade flows throughout the period observed. Finally, conclusions and future lines of research are proposed. The results show that all the countries studied have succeeded in expanding their share in world trade. The high participation of Bangladesh is justified by the size of its economy and its weight within the textile trade. Regarding diversification, all of countries present a highly concentrated pattern of exports and their exchanges are carried out with few countries. This lack of trade diversification places them in a vulnerable position. The relative trade balance index indicates that all of them are competitive with their trading partners in the products analyzed and the six have comparative advantage. To conclude, the analysis confirms that the trade structure of the LDCs considered has improved, but with differences due to their characteristics.

Analysis of Bilateral Trade between Bulgaria and Ukraine

This study examines the state of trade in goods between Bulgaria and Ukraine for the 2016-2022 period. One of this research’s main objectives is to analyze each trading partner’s role in bilateral trade. Using statistical analysis methods, we estimate each country’s share of bilateral trade for imports and exports of the top imported/exported products. Based on the analysis, it is found that in some product groups such as Group 72 “Iron and Steel”, Group 86 “Railway or Tramway Locomotives, Rolling Stock and Parts Thereof” and Group 27 “Petroleum Oils and Oils Obtained From Bituminous Minerals”, Bulgaria and Ukraine have already established long-term relationships. For the five-year 2016-2021 period, Ukrainian exports to Bulgaria have increased by 100%, and imports have increased by 214%. The results of this study may contribute to further scientific research to determine the direction of development of international trade in both countries. The positive trends in each country’s exports to the other encourage additional investments, particularly in the manufacture of these products and in the search for new market niches.

Factors Explaining the Weakness of Intra-Regional Trade Flows in the ECOWAS Region

With a GDP of over 628 billion dollars and a population of over 350 million, ECOWAS (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo) was set to be one of Africa's most powerful economic blocs. However, at ECOWAS level, intracommunity trade is still low, and its share of world trade is around 0.3%. Moreover, intracommunity trade, which is estimated at 10% of the region's total trade, is also low compared with other regional blocs. The main objective of this article is to identify the main factors explaining the evolution of trade within ECOWAS. The augmented gravity model is used to show that economic and structural factors have a significant impact on intra-regional trade. Geographic, demographic and institutional factors play a key role in the evolution of intraregional trade.

World’s barite resources as critical raw material

The relevance of the work is connected with the status of barite as a critical mineral raw material, as accepted in most industrialized countries.Purpose: to study the dynamics of commodity flows (production, import, export, consumption) of barite throughout the countries, its world prices, sources of barite raw materials and the prospects for its production and consumption.Methods: statistical, graphic, logical.Results. The production of barite raw materials from 0,3 Mt/year in 1920s grew intensively and reached 8.0–9.6 Mt/year in the 2010. Initially, both the mining and processing of barite raw materials industries were located directly in the USA, Germany, Britain, Italy, and France. These countries accounted for over 90% of world production and 80–95% of world consumption. In the 1950s, a sharp increase in the consumption of barite as a weighting agent for drilling fluids began. This led to an increase in its production in large oil and gas producing countries (the USA, the USSR, Mexico, Canada), export flows (from Morocco and other countries), and cessation of exports from Germany, Britain and France. The share of international trade in barite also increased from 0,3–0,5 Mt/year in the 1950s to 4.2–6.0 Mt/year (55–70% of his income) in the 2010s. The cumulative world production of barite between 1920–2020 is expected to be 550 Mt. World barite resources in deposits prepared for exploitation are estimated at 740 Mt. The group of critical countries importing barite raw materials (imports over 50%) represents 38.8% of the GDP of the world economy (USA, European Union, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Kuwait, Norway, Oman, Algeria, Malaysia, Indonesia, UAE, Azerbaijan, Argentina). The group of countries exporting barite raw materials includes 31.0% of the GDP of the world economy (India, Morocco, China, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Iran, Laos, Mexico, Pakistan, Bulgaria. A decrease in the criticality of barite raw material supply is possible as a result in reducing consumption (Japan, France, Italy and the Czech Republic), increasing world barite production with the commissioning of new deposits, given the significant prepared resources of this raw material in Iran, Kazakhstan and Pakistan, as well as the search for new barite deposits, including chemogenic marine bottom sediments.

FEATURES OF RUSSIAN IMPORTS FROM TURKMENISTAN DURING THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS

The article analysis the peculiarities of Russian imports from Turkmenistan during the years of the Ukrainian crisis, which began in 2014 and continues today. This crisis and its international consequences have a great impact on Russia's foreign trade policy and its trade turnover with various countries of the world. The identification of the peculiarities of Russia's imports from Turkmenistan is carried out on the basis of data from the Federal Customs Service of Russia, Rosstat and a number of scientific papers, with the help of which the dynamics of the following foreign trade indicators over all the years of the Ukrainian crisis is comprehensively and systematically investigated: the total volume of trade turnover between Russia and Turkmenistan and Russian imports from this country in value terms; the general structure of Russian imports and the specific weight (share) in it of the main commodity groups and positions, their сost values; the share of Turkmenistan in the total turnover and imports of the Russian Federation. For the purposes of the study, a comparative analysis of a number of the above indicators with the corresponding statistics of the previous period (2008–2013) was also carried out. The study showed the following: the dynamics of Russian-Turkmen trade turnover during the Ukrainian crisis was diverse; the share of trade with Turkmenistan in the total turnover of Russia, as well as the share of Turkmen supplies in the total volume of Russian imports did not change compared to the previous period; the basis of Russian imports from Turkmenistan were goods of five commodity groups; Russian imports themselves in the period under review as a whole and separately by the main commodity groups and positions showed diverse dynamics.

The interdependencies between the private and public sectors in open economies

Empirical evidence shows that countries with larger public sectors also have larger trade shares and a larger share of firms that export. These links between the public and the private sector are reconciled in an analytically tractable general equilibrium model allowing for a two-way causal relation between size (and the composition) of the public sector and openness and industry structure of the private sector. First, a larger public sector or a larger share of public expenditure used for public employment (alternative to transfers) results in a more open private sector (trade share and fraction of firms exporting), and it is also associated with more fat-tailedness of the firm size distribution, higher average productivity, lower average unit labour costs, and better wage competitiveness and terms of trade. These outcomes are driven by endogenous entry and selection of firms. Second, for optimal fiscal policies, international spillovers imply that non-cooperative policies have an upward bias in the overall size of the public sector, but a downward bias in transfers as a share of public expenditures. Trade liberalization and the degree of firm heterogeneity magnify these biases and thereby influence the size and structure of public expenditures.

Vietnam’s bilateral trade intensity: the role of China

ABSTRACT This paper aims to study the intensity of trade between Vietnam and its trading partners. Vietnam’s revealed trade preference with a country was found to be negatively correlated with distance, but positively correlated with contiguity, colonial linkages and having a free trade agreement between the pair. At the disaggregate level, contiguity leads to higher revealed export preferences in labour-intensive goods for Vietnam, but this effect on revealed import preferences is less significant. The revealed trade preference indices show that among major trading partners, China’s role is important for Vietnam’s trade, but this role is less dominant than what traditional trade share analysis shows.

What are the Factors Making Pakistan’s Exports Stagnant? Insight from Literature Review

Lowering exports is considered as one of the paramount reasons of widening trade deficit of Pakistan, which has become a long-standing challenge that country is facing since the beginning of the century. During the last two decades, the contribution of exports in GDP has been declined from 16 to 10 percent (World Bank, 2021). If we look at Pakistan’s share in global trade, it is dropped from 0.15 percent in 2005 to 0.12 percent in 2021. Export competitiveness of Pakistan is shrinking, while the competitors like Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam are experiencing expansion in export competitiveness. The stagnancy in Pakistan’s exports brings about a number of challenges like increasing current account deficit, burden of foreign debt, exchange rate, and other macroeconomic problems (Government of Pakistan, 2021-22; Defever, et al. 2020). Various reasons of declining export are suggested by the economists and researchers. To gather concrete evidence, a comprehensive desk review or literature review is required to unleash what factors are bringing down Pakistan’ exports. For that purpose, the underlying piece of research aims to weave up a review of existing literature on exports and unfolds the significant factors which influence exports.

What are the Factors Making Pakistan’s Exports Stagnant? Insight from Literature Review

Lowering exports is considered as one of the paramount reasons of widening trade deficit of Pakistan, which has become a long-standing challenge that country is facing since the beginning of the century. During the last two decades, the contribution of exports in GDP has been declined from 16 to 10 percent (World Bank, 2021). If we look at Pakistan’s share in global trade, it is dropped from 0.15 percent in 2005 to 0.12 percent in 2021. Export competitiveness of Pakistan is shrinking, while the competitors like Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam are experiencing expansion in export competitiveness. The stagnancy in Pakistan’s exports brings about a number of challenges like increasing current account deficit, burden of foreign debt, exchange rate, and other macroeconomic problems (Government of Pakistan, 2021-22; Defever, et al. 2020). Various reasons of declining export are suggested by the economists and researchers. To gather concrete evidence, a comprehensive desk review or literature review is required to unleash what factors are bringing down Pakistan’ exports. For that purpose, the underlying piece of research aims to weave up a review of existing literature on exports and unfolds the significant factors which influence exports.

Port sustainability through integration: A port capacity and profit-sharing joint optimization approach

Currently, port development has shifted from expansion to overcapacity, posing challenges to promoting sustainable port development through traditional port integration methods. To break this dilemma, we propose a model to facilitate port integration in multi-port regions by adjusting capacity and conducting market share transactions. The model aims to minimize the total social cost by optimizing the capacity adjustment (i.e., berth construction) scheme for each port, the market share trading scheme, the compensation price that ports pay for market share trading, and the government subsidy allocated to each port. To solve this model, we convert it into a two-stage formulation, and we design a genetic algorithm embedded in an inverse optimization model. Numerical experiments are conducted with actual data from the Yangtze River Delta in China. The results indicate that port integration significantly affects cargo owners’ port selection, with Nanjing Port, Shanghai Waigaoqiao Terminal, and Shanghai Yangshan Port occupying prominent positions. In addition, constructing new berths on Dayangshan Island would benefit the Shanghai Yangshan Port Authority, as transportation demand is expected to rise in the future. These findings provide guidance for governments and port authorities to address port overcapacity and develop sustainable policies.

Oman's trade achievements with Singapore given the Gulf–Singapore Free Trade Agreement

AbstractOman's trade performance achievements with Singapore are assessed within the Gulf–Singapore Free Trade Agreement (GSFTA) framework. Since coming into force in January 2015, Oman's total export value to Singapore has plunged significantly. The number of imported products from Singapore remained significantly higher than the number of Oman's exports to Singapore, confirming that Omani exports have a weaker presence in the Singaporean market. In the post‐2015 period, Oman's export partner share in trade remained below its import partner share. Although Oman's comparative advantage strengthened in consumer goods, intermediate goods, chemicals and metals since 2015, animals, food, vegetables and wood consistently revealed their comparative disadvantage since 2000. Between 2015 and 2018, Oman's export share of capital and intermediate goods to Singapore fell from 45.23% to 33.57%, while it rose for consumer goods, chemicals, fuels, machinery and electrical products. Oman's trade reforms have resulted in weighted average tariffs on all products falling from around 5% in 2005 to below 0.60% in 2018. While GSFTA has delivered on expanding trade between Oman and Singapore (though with different magnitudes), it has fallen short of delivering the ‘level playing field’ as expected of Oman's bilateral trade.

Marketplaces vs Shopping Malls: Today’s Trends and Forecasts

Nowadays in line with traditional off-line trade e-trade develops fast enough. Today’s customers show higher interest and loyalty to marketplaces. The goal of the article is to investigate new institutions being formed on the trade landscape, to analyze standing and current trends and factors influencing the development of shopping malls and marketplaces. The author’s hypothesis implies that in present conditions of trade development marketplaces act as an alternative and key competitors to shopping malls, as earlier shopping malls themselves became an alternative to department stores. Today we can observe that a certain part of customers and purchases leave off-line and choose on-line due to economic, social and geo-political reasons. It was promoted by digital technologies, COVID-19 pandemic and its after-effects, changes in customer behavior model, impact of sanction pressure on consumer market and so on. The author supposes that in case the current trend of fast growth of e-trade continuous (including marketplaces), by 2027 no less than 45% of all purchases will be done at marketplaces, while the share of traditional trade will drop and the role of shopping mall will reduce.

Demographic Factors and Behavioral Biases of Individual Investors in Nepalese Capital Market

This study aimed to analyze the relationship between demographic factors (age, gender, income, and occupation) and behavioral biases (overconfidence bias, disposition effect, and herding bias) while making share trading decisions in the Nepalese capital market. The research was conducted by distributing questionnaires to active investors with trading accounts in the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE). The data was gathered from primary sources and used for statistical analysis through ANOVA and Chi-square.
 The results of the analysis showed that there is a difference in overconfidence bias among different levels of income, age, and occupation, while a difference in herding bias among occupation and gender, whereas no difference is seen in the disposition effect among the demographic variables. This finding is consistent with other studies conducted on the behavioral biases of individual investors in the stock market.
 Understanding the factors that influence investment decisions is crucial for investors, financial advisors, and policymakers. This study provides insights into the relationship between demographic factors and behavioral biases while making share trading decisions in the Nepalese capital market. The findings of this study can be used to develop effective investment strategies and improve investment decision-making.

Kontribusi Pendapatan Pedagang Sayur Eceran Terhadap Total Pendapatan Keluarga Di Kelurahan Oesapa Kecamatan Kelapa Lima Kota Kupang

This research aims to; 1) What is the income of vegetable retailers in Desapa Village, Kelapa Lima District, Kupang City? 2) What is the feasibility of vegetable retailer in Oesapa Village, Kelapa Lima District, Kupang City. 3) How much is the contribution? What is the share of the vegetable retail trade in the family's total income? The determination of the sample in this study was made by an overall sample, where the population was also the sample in the study, since the number of vegetable retailers encountered was not too large, while the data collection was based on a survey method. The data collection took place from May 2022 to June 2022, whereby the collected data was primary data and secondary data and then a data analysis was carried out using qualitative descriptive analysis. The variables measured are costs, revenues, income, relative profits and their contribution to the traders' family income. The results of the study show that (1) the income from running a vegetable retail business is IDR 1,401,015/month. (2) In terms of economic value, the vegetable retailer's business is economically feasible by determining the R/C ratio of 1.5. The R/C ratio of merchants selling in Oesapa village ranges from 1.25 to 1.64(3). The contribution of the vegetable retail business is 53.11%. This shows that the vegetable retail business is a household income source for the vegetable retail business traders.

Bargaining power, product differentiation, and currency patterns in intra-BRICS trade

The paper aims to model the currency structure of intra-BRICS trade using readily available data at the product-country level. The research is motivated by the existence of data availability problem that has arisen because the Bank of Russia does not publish data on invoicing currencies in a detailed breakdown by currency and partner. It involves the two factors that require only trade data: the index of trading partners’ bargaining power and the degree of product quality differentiation. First, I link the hypothetical model share of trade invoiced in the producer currency to the ratio of the bargaining powers of exporter and importer countries by logistic curves with different parameters; assuming that trade in homogeneous products with low quality differentiation is invoiced in vehicle currencies, I then compare the model structure of Russia’s intra-BRICS trade with the aggregated data, and choose the parameters of the logistic curve that provide the best fit. I use CEPII BACI database for 2019. The results show that the actual and the model invoicing currency structures for Russia’s intra-BRICS trade are very close for exports but differ for imports, which highlights the role of the importer’s foreign exchange reserves currency structure. The model share of Chinese renminbi in total intra-BRICS trade is about 47% and the model share of vehicle currencies is estimated at 38%. The long-term potential share of Chinese renminbi in total intra-BRICS trade may exceed 80% that makes it the strongest candidate for substituting vehicle currencies in intra-BRICS trade.

Comparative Analysis between Intel Corporation and AMD in the Context of the IT Industry in Romania

This scientific work delves into the remarkable surge of international trade in high-tech products observed globally over the past decade. Emphasizing their pivotal role in European Commission policies, particularly in environmental and climate-related discussions concerning our digital future and economic stability, the study provides key insights from Eurostat's analysis of extra-EU high-tech product trade. Noteworthy points include a steady 4.9% average annual increase in total trade outside the EU from 2011 to 2021, with high-tech products' share in total trade growing from 14.7% to 18.1% over the same period. China emerges as the principal partner for imports into the EU, while the United States takes the lead in exports from the EU. Eurostat's data further reveals a substantial rise in total extra-EU trade (imports + exports) in high-tech products, surging from €482 billion EUR to €777 billion EUR between 2011 and 2021, indicating an average annual growth rate of 4.9%. Imports escalated from €248 billion to €392 billion, experiencing an average annual growth rate of 4.7%, whereas exports showed slightly stronger growth, increasing from €234 billion to €385 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 5.1%. This led to a reduction in the European Union's trade deficit, plummeting from €14 billion EUR to €7 billion EUR. Additionally, the study examines the IT industry in Romania, characterized by steady and sustainable growth according to the Employers' Association of the Software and Services Industry (ANIS). The industry's value soared from 4.6 billion euros in 2015 to over 9 billion euros in 2022, signifying a substantial impact on the country's gross domestic product (GDP), reaching 7%. Bucharest holds the largest market share at 60%, followed by Cluj at 18%. To provide comprehensive insights into the Romanian microprocessor market, the study employed an online questionnaire from December 3, 2022, to January 3, 2023. Participants were invited to respond to 22 questions, 16 of which were closed-ended, while 6 were open-ended. The questionnaire primarily focuses on gathering objective data related to the microprocessor market in Romania, particularly from the perspectives of industry leaders INTEL and AMD. Following the administration of the aforementioned questionnaire, a total of 485 responses were gathered from individuals aged between 18 and 70 years old. The aggregation of the received responses yielded valuable information on various aspects including gender distribution, age demographics, professional fields, budget allocation for processors, annual spending on IT components, and preferences for processor manufacturers, among others. These insights provide a comprehensive overview of the Romanian microprocessor market, offering crucial data for companies operating in this industry to make informed decisions and develop effective strategies.

MiFID II and the unbundling of analyst research from trading execution

AbstractThe revised Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II) requires the unbundling of research payments from trading execution, fundamentally changing the way in which investors typically pay for analyst research in Europe. We examine the effectiveness of the regulation in changing the link between analyst research and trading, the research‐trading link, and the analyst response to this potential change in incentives. Using a difference‐in‐differences research design, we find that forecast frequency, optimism, and accuracy are less associated with the brokerage trading share after MiFID II, suggesting that MiFID II weakened the link between the brokerage share of trading and analyst research. Following MiFID II, analysts in Europe are less likely than analysts in the United States to continue high forecast frequency, optimism, and accuracy for stocks with high share importance for the analyst's brokerage house. We find similar results throughout for buy/sell recommendations. Overall, our evidence suggests that MiFID II is at least partially successful in unbundling research from execution, and impacts both the trading effects and the production of analyst research.