Sexual Reconviction Research Articles

Exploring preliminary outcomes of a community treatment programme for men with sexual convictions screened into the offender personality disorder pathway

ABSTRACT This study describes a preliminary evaluation of a community group treatment programme for men with sexual convictions screened into the Offender Personality Disorder (OPD) pathway in London, UK. The Challenge Project has previously been evaluated prior to it being part of the national OPD pathway and the manual being revised. As such, there was a need to explore the outcomes of the new population being treated on the programme. Between April 2015 – April 2019 150 men were referred and 48 men were accepted onto treatment. At the point of referral data was gathered on the individual’s history, psychometric testing and risk assessment were also completed. Outcomes of the men were recorded based on treatment completion and formal failure up until April 2019. In terms of treatment completion, 50% did not complete treatment and had associated higher scores on the Stable 2007. In relation to formal failures, 44% of the men were either recalled to custody or were reconvicted of a further offence. The sexual reconviction rate was 11%, which was comparable to previous evaluations of the challenge project. Those that formally failed had higher scores on the RM2000 and the Stable 2007.

Reoffending rates in a U.K. community sample of individuals with convictions for indecent images of children.

Although they remain a relatively small proportion of all identified sex offenders, there is increasing concern about individuals with offenses relating to indecent images of children (IIOC) online. This study examined the reoffending rates of a sample of IIOC-only (n = 584, 84.6%) and mixed IIOC-contact (n = 106, 15.4%) offenders who participated in a U.K. community intervention and the predictive validity of risk and psychological assessment outcomes. Proven reoffending rates were 24.8% for any reconviction and 12.6% for sexual reconvictions after a 13-year average follow-up. Rates differed significantly, with the mixed group 2 times more likely to receive any reconviction and 3 times more likely to receive a sexual reconviction. Only 2.7% of the IIOC-only group was convicted of a subsequent contact offense. Prior general offenses were found to be significantly predictive of general reconviction and prior sexual convictions were significantly predictive of sexual convictions, albeit with weak predictive power. Reliable change on treatment "domains" was not predictive of either general or sexual reconvictions. While lower reconviction rates do not minimize the seriousness of IIOC use, these findings highlight the need for comprehensive assessment of proven and self-reported offending history to make sound risk decisions and the need for larger samples with longer follow-ups and comparisons between detected and undetected IIOC users. The findings also raise questions about the nature and efficiencies related to treatment for a population in which rates of reconviction appear to be relatively low. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

"It's Not Something I Chose You Know": Making Sense of Pedophiles' Sexual Interest in Children and the Impact on Their Psychosexual Identity.

Sexual interest in children is one of the most strongly predictive of the known risk factors for sexual reconviction. It is an important aspect of risk assessment to identify the presence of such interest, and an important task for treatment providers to address such a sexual interest where it is present. It has been argued that understanding pedophiles' deviant sexual interest in children can enhance risk assessment, management, and treatment planning. This research study aims to explore the phenomenology of deviant sexual interest in children, the impact it has on pedophilic offenders' identities, and their views on the treatability of that interest. The study used semistructured interviews and repertory grids to make sense of participants' experiences. The results revealed three superordinate themes: "'living' with a deviant sexual interest," "relational sexual self," and "possible and feared sexual self." The analysis unpacks these themes and repertory grid analysis is used to explore a subset of participants' identities in more detail. The results reveal that there needs to be an acceptance from both client and therapist that their sexual interest in children may never go away. Through this acceptance, clients could work on enhancing sexual self-regulation, recognizing their triggers, and so managing their sexual thoughts, feelings, and behavior. Implications for treatment are also discussed.

An Examination of the Predictive Validity of the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need–Treatment Needs Analysis (SARN-TNA) in England and Wales

The Structured Assessment of Risk and Need–Treatment Needs Analysis (SARN-TNA) is routinely used by the National Offender Management Service (NOMS) in England and Wales to aid assessment of risk of sexual offenders. This structured professional judgment tool’s predictive validity was examined with convicted sexual offenders in this field study. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) was not significant at 2 years (Area Under the Curve [AUC] = 0.59, n = 304, p = .193) or at 4 years (AUC = 0.57, n = 161, p = .242). Survival analysis did not reveal significantly different sexual reconviction rates between SARN-TNA risk groups. Individual domains were also examined, with the sexual interests domain being the only predictive element of the SARN-TNA risk assessment tool. Results support further examination of how SARN-TNA risk group is calculated and more heavily weighting the importance of the sexual interests domain. The SARN-TNA should not be relied upon as a predictor scale of sexual reoffending.

Circles South East

This article describes the first 10 years of the implementation of Circles of Support and Accountability (Circles) in the management of sexual offenders in South-East England by Circles South East (CSE). The Circles of 71 core members are reviewed in detail, with reference to demographic data, offense and sentencing histories, risk assessment data, and considerations regarding Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangements. A group of 71 comparison subjects who were referred to CSE and deemed suitable for but did not receive the service was identified. Follow-up behaviors of both groups are examined (including all forms of reconviction, breach of orders, and prison recall). Over a comparable follow-up period of 55 months, the incidence of violent and contact sexual reconviction in the comparison group was significantly higher than for the Circles cohort. Comparisons are made between expected and actual levels of sexual reconviction, with the Circles cohort showing lower than expected rate of sexual reconviction but not to a statistically significant degree.

Ever-increasing circles: A descriptive study of Hampshire and Thames Valley Circles of Support and Accountability 2002–09

This paper gives a history of Hampshire and Thames Valley (HTV) Circles, an organisation which recruits, trains and supports volunteer members of the public who are formed into small groups meeting weekly to provide support and monitoring of post-conviction sex offenders (Core Members) in the community. It describes the origins of Circles of Support and Accountability in Canada and gives an account of its implementation in the UK and a summary of the findings of the previous study of the first 16 HTV Circles Core Members in 2006 and some discussion about the challenges inherent in evaluating this kind of community-based and volunteer-led intervention. It describes demographic data on 60 Core Members followed-up for an average period of 36.2 months, including offence and sentence category, treatment history and statistically assessed risk of reconviction. It provides evidence of progress by these Core Members across a range of dynamic risk factors, as well as information on sexual reconviction, recall to prison and dropout from Circles. Three case studies provide details of Circles practice in community risk management of sex offenders. The paper discusses proposed areas of further research into Circles work, as well as the development of new techniques for measuring and managing dynamic risk factors displayed by Core Members in the community.

Risk, reconviction and “sexually risky behaviour” in sex offenders

The Challenge Project is a community assessment and treatment programme in southeast London. The Project has been evaluated extensively in relation to community failure, with consideration of static risk prediction tools and the role of key developmental variables. This current paper is an extension of earlier evaluations, considering an extended range of outcomes with a longer-term follow-up period of more than nine years at risk in the community. The official sexual reconviction rate for this sample of sex offenders (of whom 275 were at risk in the community) was 12%. A wider definition of “sexually risky behaviours” as an outcome variable, drawn from a range of police intelligence, suggested a “truer” sexual re-offending rate of 20%. Although static tools were moderately predictive of community failure, the accuracy of risk prediction was enhanced if static tools were considered in conjunction with developmental variables.

The assessment of dynamic risk and recidivism in a sample of special needs sexual offenders

The predictive validity of four risk assessment instruments: the RRASOR, SVR-20, RM2000-V and the ARMIDILO-Stable and -Acute dynamic client subscales were assessed on a sample of 88 offenders: 44 mainstream and 44 sexual offenders with special needs, who had been matched on risk items within the RRASOR tool. Instruments were coded retrospectively from file information. Sexual reconviction data was used, in conjunction with sexual recidivism data based on unofficial data sources, over a mean follow-up period of 8.8 years. The results of this study found that the ARMIDILO instrument was the best predictor for sexual reconviction among offenders with special needs (ARMIDILO-Stable, AUC=0.60; ARMIDILO-Acute, AUC=0.73), while the predictive validities of the RRASOR (AUC=0.53) and the RM2000-V (AUC=0.50) were little better than chance. In contrast, the SVR-20 yielded a higher score (AUC=0.73) for the non-ID sample, than for the intellectually disabled sample (AUC=0.45). Within the special needs group, the ARMIDILO-Acute, SVR-20 Psychosocial Affect, and Overall scales were better predictors of sexual recidivism for the intellectually disabled subgroup (AUCs ranging from 0.75 to 0.88). These results are discussed in the context of current practice.

The Effect of Age on Sexual and Violent Reconviction

Although a number of research studies indicate an inverse relationship between age and sexual offence recidivism, the effect of age on sexual and violent reconviction remains unclear, with some studies producing contradictory results. In the present study, reconviction data were obtained for 131 offenders (85 sex offenders and 46 violent offenders) followed up over a 2- and 5-year period. The sample was grouped into four age bands (i.e., ≤24, 25-34, 35-44, and ≥45 years) and rates of sexual, violent, sexual and violent (combined), and any offence reconviction were compared. There was an almost linear relationship between age and rate of reconviction, with the youngest age band (≤24 years) presenting the greatest risk of reconviction and the older age bands (≥45 years) presenting the lowest reconviction rate. At the 5-year follow-up, the youngest age band was significantly more likely to be reconvicted of sexual and violent offences (combined) than any other age band. This age band was significantly more likely to be actuarially assessed (i.e., Static-99) as high risk (controlling for age) and was more likely to target strangers, be single, and display non-sexual violence during the index offence. In relation to sexual reconviction, there was a plateau effect in the middle-age band, with the oldest age band (≥45 years) obtaining the highest sexual reconviction rate compared with all other age bands at the 5-year follow-up. Although these findings support the view that lower-aged sexual and violent offenders pose greater risk than their older-aged counterparts, this was not true for sexual reconviction at the 5-year follow-up. Implications of these findings are discussed.

Actuarial risk assessment and recidivism in a sample of UK intellectually disabled sexual offenders

This study examines the effectiveness of three risk assessment instruments: Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) and the Rapid Risk of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), in predicting sexual recidivism among 27 intellectually disabled sex offenders. The overall sexual offence reconviction rate was 30%, while non-recidivists remained offence-free over 76 months of follow-up. Static-99 presented as performing as well as guided clinical judgements in mainstream population studies [area under the curve (AUC)=0.64] exceeding the performance of RM2000 (AUC=0.58) in predicting sexual recidivism. However, the results were not statistically significant. In contrast to previous findings, the RRASOR presented the worst level of prediction (AUC=0.42). These results highlight the need to investigate further with larger sample sizes and in conjunction with more dynamic measures of risk. Proposed relevant factors are discussed in detail.

Psychopathy, Intelligence, and Recidivism in Child Molesters

The authors studied the relationships between psychopathy, intelligence, and offending in a sample of treated child molesters ( N = 216). Regression analyses showed that psychopathy (as measured by the Psychopathy Checklist—Revised) was strongly related to both offense history and recidivism during follow-up. Intelligence (assessed using four-subtest short forms of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale—Revised and Third Versions) was not related to offending. However, there was a significant interaction between intelligence and psychopathy on recidivism: Offenders with relatively low intelligence and high psychopathy scores were more than 4 times as likely to have received a sexual reconviction as other offenders. Results are discussed in terms of implications for risk assessment.

Sexual reconviction rates in the United Kingdom and actuarial risk estimates

Objective Assessing the risk of further offending behavior by adult sexual perpetrators of children is highly relevant and important to professionals involved in child protection. Recent progress in assessing risk in sexual offenders has established the validity of actuarial measures, although there continues to be some debate about the application of these instruments. This paper summarizes the debate between clinical and actuarial approaches and reviews the “base rate” for United Kingdom sexual offense reconviction. Method A review of the literature revealed 16 UK sexual reconviction studies, 8 using incarcerated samples ( N = 5,915) and 8 using non-incarcerated samples ( N = 1,274). UK estimates of sexual reconviction rates are compared with European and North American studies. Results The mean sexual reconviction rates for the incarcerated sample at 2 years (6.0%), 4 years (7.8%) and 6 years or more (19.5%) were higher than that of the comparative non-incarcerated sample at 2 years (5.7%), up to 4 years (5.9%), and 6 years or more (15.5%). The overall sexual reconviction rate for both samples combined was 5.8% at 2 years, and 17.5% at 6 years or more. Conclusions The sexual reconviction rate for incarcerated sexual offenders is higher than that of non-incarcerated sexual offenders. The UK sexual reconviction rates were comparable with European and North American studies.

The Relationship of Statistical and Psychological Risk Markers to Sexual Reconviction in Child Molesters

This study examines the integration of statistical and psychological risk factors using psychometric markers of psychopathology and psychosexual characteristics from the Static-99 in 119 sexual offenders. Psychological risk markers are combined to approximate four deviancy domains: sexual interests, distorted attitudes, socio-affective functioning, and self-management. The sexual interests domain predicts sexual reconviction independent of Static-99. The four deviancy domains are used to calculate the Psychological Deviance Index, which was also found to predict sexual reconviction independent of Static-99. Organizing the Static-99 risk items into three subscales (sexual deviance, general criminality, and immaturity) reveals a distinct pattern of correlations within the psychological markers and risk domains. The Static-99 sexual deviance and general criminality subscales make modest predictions. Results support the use of integrating statistical and psychological markers within a risk domains framework in predicting sexual reconviction.

The relationship between risk, deviance, treatment outcome and sexual reconviction in a sample of child sexual abusers completing residential treatment for their offending

The study investigated the relationship between static and dynamic risk and reconviction in a sample of child sexual abusers who had completed a long-term residential treatment programme for their sexual behaviour problems. Results found that only High/Very High risk men as measured by a static risk assessment schedule (Risk Matrix 2000) were reconvicted for sexual offences (17% over a 2-year period, 42% over a 5-year period). Results also showed that it was generally men who were rated as a high level of dynamic risk that were reconvicted for a sexual offence (13% versus 5% over a 2-year period; 44% versus 10% over a 5-year period). The study also indicated the benefits of residential treatment for such High risk/High Deviance men in that no men who left the programme having responded to treatment had been reconvicted for sexual offences at either follow-up period.

Tracking High-Risk, Violent Offenders: An Examination of the National Flagging System

The present study investigated the effectiveness of the Canadian National Flagging System (NFS), a policy initiative intended to identify offenders who are judged to be suitable candidates for a Dangerous Offender (DO) or a Long-Term Offender (LTO) application. Analyses comparing the profiles of 256 flagged offenders and 97 known high-risk, violent offenders indicated that the flagged offenders generally showed less serious and persistent criminality characteristics than the known high-risk, violent offenders. However, scores on actuarial measures of risk demonstrated that both groups comprised especially high-risk offenders. Furthermore, the violent and/or sexual reconviction rates of the flagged offenders were significantly higher than those reported among the typical Canadian male federal offender population. Judged against our expectations, the base rate of DO/LTO designations among the violent/sexual recidivist flagged offenders was also much higher than the one estimated among the general high-risk, violent offender population in Canada. As a whole, the findings suggested that the NFS was successful in appropriately identifying offenders who pose a risk to the community as well as in subsequently responding to this threat by facilitating the use of the DO/LTO provisions. Recommendations for the development of guidelines to assist criminal justice professionals in screening, monitoring, and processing high-risk, persistent offenders are made.

Psychosexual characteristics of sexual offenders and the relationship to sexual reconviction

The purpose of this study was to determine if the Multiphasic Sex Inventory (MSI) could be used to predict sexual reconviction. The MSI was administered to 119 convicted male sex offenders. Reconviction data were analysed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) over 2-, 5- and 10-year follow-up periods. The MSI scales Sexual Obsession and Paraphilia (Atypical Sexual Outlet) obtained good accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction over 2- and 5-year follow-up periods. A confirmatory factor analysis of the MSI scales yielded a four-factor solution: Sexual Deviance, Sexual Desirability, Dysfunctional/Justification, and Normal. The Sexual Deviance factor demonstrated good accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction at 2-year follow-up while the Normal factor was a poor predictor of sexual reconviction. Compared against an actuarial risk assessment measure for sexual offenders, the Sexual Obsession, Sexual/Social Desirability, and Sexual Dysfunction scales, and Sexual Deviance factor made a statistically significant contribution independent of the risk scale in predicting sexual reconviction. It is argued that rather than using the MSI solely as an assessment measure of psychosexual characteristics of sexual offenders in treatment programmes, it can be used to provide additional information as part of an assessment of risk of sexual reconviction.

Cross-Validation of the Risk Matrix 2000 Sexual and Violent Scales

The predictive accuracy of the newly developed actuarial risk measures Risk Matrix 2000 Sexual/Violence (RMS, RMV) were cross validated and compared with two risk assessment measures (SVR-20 and Static-99) in a sample of sexual (n= 85) and nonsex violent (n= 46) offenders. The sexual offense reconviction rate for the sex offender group was 18% at 10 years follow-up, compared with 2% for the violent offenders. Survival analyses revealed the violent offenders were reconvicted at twice the rate compared to sexual offenders. The RMV significantly predicted violent recidivism in the sex and combined sex/violent offender groups. Although the RMS obtained marginal accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction in the sex offender group, none of the scales significantly predicted sexual reconviction. An item analysis revealed four factors not included in the risk scales that were significantly correlated with sexual and violent reconviction. Combining these factors with Static-99, RMV, and RMS increased the accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction.

Age and Sexual Recidivism: A Variable Connection

Meta-analysis (R. K. Hanson & M. T. Bussière, 1998) has indicated an overall negative correlation between age and sexual recidivism, but also found that the size of this inverse relationship varies significantly between samples. The present study examined the relationship between age on release and sexual recidivism in a large (N=752), nationally representative, sample of imprisoned male sexual offenders followed up for 10 years. Sexual offenders released at a younger age tended to be more general criminals while those released at an older age tended to be sexual specialists. Consistent with C. F. Roberts, D. M. Doren, and D. Thornton (2002), age on release was found to make a significant contribution to the prediction of sexual reconviction when two aspects of criminal history (sexual deviance and general criminality) were controlled. Overall, the odds of being sexually reconvicted declined by about 0.02 with each year of increasing age. In addition to this general decline in recidivism with increasing age, there was also a cubic effect of age for the offenders who had been sentenced for sexual offenses on at least two prior occasions. This group showed an exceptionally high sexual recidivism rate when released between the ages of 18-24 (80%). For those aged between 25 and 59 their sexual reconviction rate was consistently just under 50% regardless of age. Then for the small group aged 60+ no further sexual reconvictions were found.

Age and Sexual Recidivism: A Variable Connection

Meta-analysis (R. K. Hanson & M. T. Bussière, 1998) has indicated an overall negative correlation between age and sexual recidivism, but also found that the size of this inverse relationship varies significantly between samples. The present study examined the relationship between age on release and sexual recidivism in a large (N = 75 2), nationally representative, sample of imprisoned male sexual offenders followed up for 10 years. Sexual offenders released at a younger age tended to be more general criminals while those released at an older age tended to be sexual specialists. Consistent with C. F. Roberts, D. M. Doren, and D. Thornton (2002), age on release was found to make a significant contribution to the prediction of sexual reconviction when two aspects of criminal history (sexual deviance and general criminality) were controlled. Overall, the odds of being sexually reconvicted declined by about 0.02 with each year of increasing age. In addition to this general decline in recidivism with increasing age, there was also a cubic effect of age for the offenders who had been sentenced for sexual offenses on at least two prior occasions. This group showed an exceptionally high sexual recidivism rate when released between the ages of 18-24 (80%). For those aged between 25 and 59 their sexual reconviction rate was consistently just under 50% regardless of age. Then for the small group aged 60+ no further sexual reconvictions were found.

Risk prediction and failure in a complete urban sample of sex offenders

Considerable progress has been made in developing risk prediction tools for sex offenders based on fixed variables. The aim of this study was to explore the comparative utility of the Risk Matrix 2000 and Static 99 on an urban community sample of child molesters and rapists, with reference to sexual recidivism, general community failure and the possible impact of treatment. The role of key developmental variables was explored in relation to risk prediction. The sample comprised 310 sex offenders, 273 of whom had been at risk in the community for an average of four years. The sexual reconviction rate was very low at 2%. Preliminary analyses suggested that the predictive accuracy of existing tools was enhanced by considering childhood difficulties. Future research should replicate the findings in the light of dynamic models of risk prediction.