Risk, reconviction and “sexually risky behaviour” in sex offenders

Abstract

The Challenge Project is a community assessment and treatment programme in southeast London. The Project has been evaluated extensively in relation to community failure, with consideration of static risk prediction tools and the role of key developmental variables. This current paper is an extension of earlier evaluations, considering an extended range of outcomes with a longer-term follow-up period of more than nine years at risk in the community. The official sexual reconviction rate for this sample of sex offenders (of whom 275 were at risk in the community) was 12%. A wider definition of “sexually risky behaviours” as an outcome variable, drawn from a range of police intelligence, suggested a “truer” sexual re-offending rate of 20%. Although static tools were moderately predictive of community failure, the accuracy of risk prediction was enhanced if static tools were considered in conjunction with developmental variables.