Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide Research Articles

Cross-Validation of the Revised Version of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG-R) in a Sample of Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses.

The aim of the present study was to examine the psychometric properties of the German version of the revised Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the VRAG-R. Therefore, VRAG-R ratings were made retrospectively in an Austrian sample of 534 individuals convicted of a sexual offense who were followed up with an average of 7.62 years. The VRAG-R showed large effect sizes for the predictive accuracy of violent (AUC = .75) and general recidivism (AUC = .78) and significant but rather small effect sizes (AUC = .63 and .61, respectively) in predicting any sexual and sexual contact recidivism. Furthermore, for the prediction of violent recidivism but not for sexual recidivism the VRAG-R was incrementally predictive beyond the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and the Static-99. Finally, the VRAG-R absolute recidivism rates for the risk bins showed satisfactory calibration properties. Taken together, the results of the present study support the cross-national utility of the VRAG-R and its use in applied risk assessment settings also in German-speaking countries.

Psychopathy and treatment outcome: Results from a sexual violence reduction program.

The present study examined the association of psychopathy, measured by the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; Hare, 1991, 2003), to sexual offender treatment completion, change, and recidivism in a Canadian sample of 302 treated sexual offenders followed up in the community 17.6 years post release. Sexual violence risk and treatment change was evaluated via the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), and general violence risk via the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (Quinsey, Harris, Rice, & Cormier, 1998). High-psychopathy men had significantly higher rates of sexual offender treatment noncompletion (30%) than low-psychopathy men (6%), although they did not evidence significantly less therapeutic change. The Affective facet of the PCL-R uniquely, significantly predicted decreased therapeutic progress, and along with the Lifestyle facet, it predicted treatment noncompletion. Examination of recidivism outcomes revealed that treatment completion in and of itself was not significantly associated with decreased sexual or violent recidivism among psychopathic offenders; however, therapeutic change, reflecting risk reduction, was significantly associated with decreased sexual and violent recidivism after controlling for baseline risk and PCL-R score. Results of survival analysis indicated that a subgroup of high-risk psychopathic men who made substantial treatment gains had lower trajectories of sexual and violent recidivism over the follow-up period relative to other high-risk men who demonstrated fewer treatment benefits. The issue of therapeutic pessimism with implications for the treatment and retention of high-psychopathy sexual offenders, per the two-component model, is discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Cross-Validation of the Discrimination and Calibration Properties of the VRAG-R in a Treated Sexual Offender Sample

The present study featured an examination of the predictive properties of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide–Revised (VRAG-R) in a treated sample of sexual offenders, using modern risk metrics. The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and the original Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) were examined for comparison purposes. The three measures were rated archivally on 296 treated sexual offenders followed up 17.6 years. VRAG-R scores demonstrated good discrimination of recidivists from nonrecidivists for sexual (area under the curve [AUC] = .60-.67) and violent (AUC = .70-.78) recidivism, and were incremental in the prediction of violent, but not sexual, recidivism after controlling for baseline sexual violence risk and treatment change. The VRAG-R bin structure demonstrated good calibration, although the present sample generated lower 5-year estimates of general violence compared with the normative sample. Application of the VRAG-R in the assessment and management of violence risk, via integration with dynamic risk assessment information, is discussed.

Actuarial risk assessment of sexual offenders: The psychometric properties of the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG).

The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) is one of the most commonly used actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. The aims of the present field study were to examine the predictive validity of the German version of the SORAG and its individual items for different offender subgroups and recidivism criteria in sexual offenders released from the Austrian Prison System (N = 1,104; average follow-up period M = 6.48 years) within a prospective-longitudinal research design. For the prediction of violent recidivism the German version of the SORAG yielded an effect size of AUC = .74 (p < .001, 95% CI = .70-.78). The predictive accuracy for general and violent recidivism was slightly higher than for general sexual and sexual hands-on recidivism. The effect sizes were found to be higher for the child molester sample than for rapists. However, the differences were significant only for general recidivism (z = 2.48, p = .001). Further analyses exhibited the SORAG to have incremental predictive validity beyond the VRAG and the PCL-R, and to remain the only significant predictor for violent recidivism once all 3 instruments were forced into a combined regression model. Twelve out of the 14 SORAG items were found to have a significant positive relationship with violent recidivism. The comparison of the relative and absolute risk indices between the Austrian and the Canadian samples showed that the normative data distribution yielded more (absolute risk indices) or less (relative risk indices) meaningful differences between the 2 countries. (PsycINFO Database Record

Usage exploratoire d’outils d’évaluation structurée du risque de récidive en France

This communication shows the demographic and legal characteristics and statistics levels of risk of recidivism of a sample of 55 criminal offenders sentenced to lengthy prison terms. Assessments of risk levels were conducted on an exploratory basis, using the Hare Psychopathy Check-List-Revised (PCL-R), the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and STATIC 99-R. We report the average result, the distribution of scores into risk categories, inter-correlation of tools and several statistical analyzes.

The predictive validity of common risk assessment tools in men with intellectual disabilities and problematic sexual behaviors

This CIHR-funded study examined whether certain current risk assessment tools were effective in appraising risk of recidivism in a sample of sex offenders with intellectual disabilities (ID). Fifty men with ID who had engaged in problematic sexual behavior (PSB) were followed for an average of 2.5 years. Recidivism was defined and measured as any illegal or problematic behavior, as well as any problematic but not necessarily illegal behavior. At the beginning of the study, each participant was rated on two risk assessment tools: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). During each month of follow-up, participants were also rated on the Short-Dynamic Risk Scale (SDRS), an assessment tool intended to measure the risk of future problematic behaviors. Data was analyzed using t-tests, Cohen’s d and area under the curve (AUC) to test predictive validity of the assessment tools. Using the AUC, results showed that the VRAG was predictive of sexual (AUC=0.74), sexual and/or violent (AUC=0.71) and of any criminally chargeable event (AUC=0.69). The SORAG was only significantly predictive of sexual events (AUC=0.70) and the SDRS was predictive of violent events (AUC=0.71). The t-test and Cohen’s d analyses, which are less robust to deviations from the assumptions of normal and continuous distribution than AUC, did not yield significant results in each category, and therefore, while the results of this study suggest that the VRAG and the SORAG may be effective tools in measuring the short term risk of sexual recidivism; and the VRAG and SDRS may be effective tools in appraising long term risk of sexual and/or violent recidivism in this population, it should be used with caution. Regardless of the assessment tool used, risk assessments should take into account the differences between sex offenders with and without ID to ensure effective measurement.

AMOSS and AMIHS partnership to make a difference: Rheumatic heart disease in pregnancy

This CIHR-funded study examined whether certain current risk assessment tools were effective in appraising risk of recidivism in a sample of sex offenders with intellectual disabilities (ID). Fifty men with ID who had engaged in problematic sexual behavior (PSB) were followed for an average of 2.5 years. Recidivism was defined and measured as any illegal or problematic behavior, as well as any problematic but not necessarily illegal behavior. At the beginning of the study, each participant was rated on two risk assessment tools: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). During each month of follow-up, participants were also rated on the Short-Dynamic Risk Scale (SDRS), an assessment tool intended to measure the risk of future problematic behaviors. Data was analyzed using t-tests, Cohen’s d and area under the curve (AUC) to test predictive validity of the assessment tools. Using the AUC, results showed that the VRAG was predictive of sexual (AUC = 0.74), sexual and/or violent (AUC = 0.71) and of any criminally chargeable event (AUC = 0.69). The SORAG was only significantly predictive of sexual events (AUC = 0.70) and the SDRS was predictive of violent events (AUC = 0.71). The t-test and Cohen’s d analyses, which are less robust to deviations from the assumptions of normal and continuous distribution than AUC, did not yield significant results in each category, and therefore, while the results of this study suggest that the VRAG and the SORAG may be effective tools in measuring the short term risk of sexual recidivism; and the VRAG and SDRS may be effective tools in appraising long term risk of sexual and/or violent recidivism in this population, it should be used with caution. Regardless of the assessment tool used, risk assessments should take into account the differences between sex offenders with and without ID to ensure effective measurement.

What does it mean when age is related to recidivism among sex offenders?

Age is a robust predictor of recidivism and an item on actuarial tools commonly used to predict sexual violent recidivism among sex offenders. However, little is known about whether or how much offenders' risk diminishes as a result of aging. In the first of two studies, we examined the sexual and violent recidivism of 533 sex offenders who were over age 50 on release. Age at index offense was at least as good at predicting both outcomes as was age at release, and age at index offense provided at least as much incremental validity in the prediction of violent recidivism to scores on a brief static actuarial tool. Neither age added incrementally to static score in the prediction of sexual recidivism. The second study examined how well age at first offense, age at index offense, and age at release predicted violent recidivism among 527 sex offenders aged 13 to 79 at release. Age at first offense predicted best. When age was removed from score on the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, all ages added incrementally but age at release least to SORAG score. When participants were divided into quartiles based on age at index offense, there was no evidence from any quartile that age at release predicted violent recidivism better than age at first offense. The authors concluded that age at release is a poor index of within-subject changes in risk of sexual or violent recidivism. No adjustment to a sex offender's score on a comprehensive actuarial tool that includes age at first or index offense should be made simply because the offender is older.

Measuring the disparity of categorical risk among various sex offender risk assessment measures

The focus on reducing sexual offending has led to the development of risk assessment measures and schemes to predict reoffending, prioritize the allocation of treatment and supervision resources, and ensure public safety. However, different risk assessment approaches may not always have high agreement on the same individual. In light of the research indicating that ordinal risk rankings are most commonly used and reported in various risk communications, this study compares four risk assessment approaches, namely the Static-99R, Static-2002R, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, and SVR-20, in order to evaluate the disparities among the risk categories of these measures. The results indicate that there are disparities between all of the risk measures; but, many of these can be explained by structural differences and common overlapping dimensions in the measures. Possible explanations for and implications of the discrepancies, along with some guidance on determining which approach to use, are discussed.

Current Obstacles in Replicating Risk Assessment Findings: A Systematic Review of Commonly Used Actuarial Instruments

An actuarial risk assessment instrument can be considered valid if independent investigations using novel samples can replicate the findings of the instrument's development study. In order for a study to qualify as a replication, it has to adhere to the methodological protocol of the development study with respect to key design characteristics, as well as ensuring that manual-recommended guidelines of test administration have been followed. A systematic search was conducted to identify predictive validity studies (N = 84) on three commonly used actuarial instruments: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the Static-99. Sample (sex, age, criminal history) and design (follow-up, attrition, recidivism) characteristics, as well as markers of assessment integrity (scoring reliability, item omissions, prorating procedure), were extracted from 84 studies comprising 108 samples. None of the replications matched the development study of the instrument they were attempting to cross-validate with respect to key sample and design characteristics. Furthermore none of the replications strictly followed the manual-recommended guidelines for the instruments' administration. Additional replication studies that follow the methodological protocols outlined in actuarial instruments' development studies are needed before claims of generalizability can be made.

Der Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG)

In North America, the use of actuarial instruments is considered to be state of the art in the assessment of offender recidivism risk. One of these instruments is the "Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide" (SORAG), which was developed specifically for the use in sex offender risk assessment. The present review investigates the current state of knowledge regarding the instrument's validity specifically for its use in German-speaking countries. Overall the results speak for the instrument's good discriminatory power. However, this is not true to the same degree for all types of sex offender populations. The discriminatory power is especially good in the subpopulation of child molesters. Part of the present review is a German translation of the instrument authorised by the developers of the SORAG.

A time series modeling approach in risk appraisal of violent and sexual recidivism.

For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.

Comparing indicators of sexual sadism as predictors of recidivism among adult male sexual offenders.

In this longitudinal study, the predictive validity of a psychiatric diagnosis of sexual sadism was compared with three behavioral indicators of sadism: index sexual offense violence, sexual intrusiveness, and phallometrically assessed sexual arousal to depictions of sexual or nonsexual violence. Five hundred and eighty six adult male sexual offenders were assessed between 1982 and 1992, and these offenders were followed for up to 20-years postrelease via official criminal records. Assessment information included the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) diagnosis, offense characteristics, phallometric assessment results, and an actuarial risk measure (the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Predictive validity was demonstrated in univariate analyses for the behavioral indicators of sexual sadism (area under the curve [AUCs] from .58 to .62) but not psychiatric diagnosis (AUC = .54). Cox regression analyses revealed that phallometrically assessed sexual arousal to violence was still significantly associated with violent (including sexual) recidivism after actuarially estimated risk to reoffend was controlled. A psychiatric diagnosis of sexual sadism, in contrast, was unrelated to recidivism. The results support the use of more behaviorally operationalized indicators of sexual sadism, especially phallometric assessment of sexual arousal, and suggest the DSM criteria for sexual sadism require further work.

Substance Abuse Among High-Risk Sexual Offenders: Do Measures of Lifetime History of Substance Abuse Add to the Prediction of Recidivism Over Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments?

There has been relatively little research on the degree to which measures of lifetime history of substance abuse add to the prediction of risk based on actuarial measures alone among sexual offenders. This issue is of relevance in that a history of substance abuse is related to relapse to substance using behavior. Furthermore, substance use has been found to be related to recidivism among sexual offenders. To investigate whether lifetime history of substance abuse adds to prediction over and above actuarial instruments alone, several measures of substance abuse were administered in conjunction with the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). The SORAG was found to be the most accurate actuarial instrument for the prediction of serious recidivism (i.e., sexual or violent) among the sample included in the present investigation. Complete information, including follow-up data, were available for 250 offenders who attended the Regional Treatment Centre Sex Offender Treatment Program (RTCSOTP). The Michigan Alcohol Screening Test (MAST) and the Drug Abuse Screening Test (DAST) were used to assess lifetime history of substance abuse. The results of logistic regression procedures indicated that both the SORAG and the MAST independently added to the prediction of serious recidivism. The DAST did not add to prediction over the use of the SORAG alone. Implications for both the assessment and treatment of sexual offenders are discussed.

Allegiance or fidelity? A clarifying reply.

[Clin Psychol Sci Prac 17: 82–89, 2010] Recently, in the journal Clinical Psychology: Science and Practice, there appeared a systematic review (Blair, Marcus, & Boccaccini, 2008) accompanied by a commentary (Lilienfeld & Jones, 2008) suggesting an “allegiance effect” in the reporting of the predictive accuracy of actuarial risk assessment systems. The authors of these two articles suggested some possible errors or misrepresentation on the part of original developers or other researchers and proposed some remedies. We examined these two articles in conjunction with all the available evidence for the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide and concluded there is no evidence of an allegiance effect.

Aging Versus Stable Enduring Traits as Explanatory Constructs in Sex Offender Recidivism

This study investigates whether sex offenders' age at release from custody affects their likelihood of reoffending. The participants were 468 men with a mean follow-up (time at risk) of just more than 5 years after release. Items from the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, the Rapid Risk Assessment of Sexual Offense Recidivism, the Static-99, and the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Test—Revised were coded. Results show that the predictive ability of items tapping antisocial behavior is inflated by their association with age at release, whereas the predictive ability of items tapping sexual deviance is diminished by that association. An assessment instrument comprising an age-corrected antisocial behavior scale, an age-corrected sexual deviance scale, and an age at release scale predicted recidivism as well as the best existing actuarial instruments. Cox regression analysis shows that age at release provided unique and significant predictive ability over and above age-corrected antisocial behavior and age-corrected sexual deviance combined.

Use and perceived utility of structured violence risk assessments in English medium secure forensic units

Aims and MethodWe surveyed the usage and perceived utility of standardised risk measures in 29 forensic medium secure units (a 62% response rate).ResultsThe most common instruments were Historical Clinical Risk–20 (HCR–20) and Psychopathy Checklist – revised (PCL–R); both were rated highly for utility. the Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000), Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and Static-99 were the most common sex offender assessments, but the Sexual Violence Risks–20 (SVR–20) was rated more positively for its use of dynamic factors and relevance to treatment.Clinical ImplicationsMost medium secure units use structured risk assessments and staff view them positively. As HCR–20 and PCL–R/PCL–SV (Psychopathy Checklist – Screening Version) are so widely used they should be the first choices considered by other services.

Prospective Actuarial Risk Assessment

This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk-20, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences-for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.

The Latent Structure of Sexual Violence Risk

Actuarial scores from widely used sex offender risk instruments (Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool—Revised, Risk Matrix 2000, Static—99, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violent Risk—20, and Structured Risk Assessment) as well as the Psychopathy Checklist—Revised were subjected to taxometric analysis in a sample of 503 sex offending males using the following three procedures: mean above minus below a cut, maximum eigenvalue, and latent mode factor analysis. Results showed consistent support for a dimensional interpretation of the latent structure of sexual violence risk and psychopathic sexuality. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed with respect to the etiology of sexual violence risk. Clinical implications are discussed with respect to future development of sex offender risk assessment procedures and cutoff scores.

Is there an allegiance effect for assessment instruments? Actuarial risk assessment as an exemplar.

The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (Harris, Rice, & Quinsey, 1993), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (Quinsey, Harris, Rice, & Cormier, 1998), and the Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 1999) are three well-researched risk measures. All three instruments were good predictors of recidivism (r = .31). However, these effect sizes were significantly larger in studies conducted by the instruments’ authors (r = .37) than in studies conducted by independent researchers (r = .28). This allegiance effect remained significant even when the initial validation studies were excluded. No other design or sample characteristics were significant moderators of the relation between scores and recidivism. These findings raise questions about whether such an allegiance effect may be found for other measures.