Severe Convection Research Articles

Forecasting experiences associated with supercells over South-Western Poland on July 7, 2017

On July 7th, 2017 numerous supercells affected the south – western part of Poland. Significant hail, severe wind gusts and one – tornado of estimated F2 intensity on the Fujita scale were reported. Thunderstorms developed in a warm sector within the low pressure trough. Moderate to high – shear and low to moderate buoyant environmental conditions led to rapid formation of supercells. The main aim of the study was to examine meteorological conditions which result in severe storms and to validate their projections in meteorological models. Supercells were detected with the use of the Polish radar system “POLRAD” run by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMGW). Additionally, geostationary and polar satellite data were used in the study. The data were provided by NOAA and METEOSAT. Surface and upper air meteorological conditions were obtained from hourly observations from synoptic stations in Poland and atmospheric soundings from Lindenberg, Prague, Wroclaw and Prostejov. High – resolution models AROME, COSMO and the mesoscale model ALARO were analysed. The examination of the radar and satellite data yielded an abundance of sharp and classic severe convection signatures as a bounded weak echo region (BWER), hook echo and radial velocity couplets. The most intensive supercells lasted >2.5 h, with tops reaching 12 km, and reflectivity up to 67 dBz. Operational runs of ALARO, AROME and COSMO showed favourable for severe convection values of instability and wind shear. However, the models incorrectly simulated convection as multicellular and displaced it significantly.

Sensitivity of Simulated GMI Brightness Temperatures to Variations in Particle Size Distributions in a Severe Hailstorm

AbstractGlobal Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) brightness temperatures (BTs) were simulated over a case of severe convection in Texas using ground-based S-band radar and the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator. The median particle diameter Do of a normalized gamma distribution was varied for different hydrometeor types under the constraint of fixed radar reflectivity to better understand how simulated GMI BTs respond to changing particle size distribution parameters. In addition, simulations were conducted to assess how low BTs may be expected to reach from realistic (although extreme) particle sizes or concentrations. Results indicate that increasing Do for cloud ice, graupel, and/or hail leads to warmer BTs (i.e., weaker scattering signature) at various frequencies. Channels at 166.0 and 183.31 ± 7 GHz are most sensitive to changing Do of cloud ice, channels at ≥89.0 GHz are most sensitive to changing Do of graupel, and at 18.7 and 36.5 GHz they show the greatest sensitivity to hail Do. Simulations contrasting BTs above high concentrations of small (0.5-cm diameter) and low concentrations of large (20-cm diameter) hailstones distributed evenly across a satellite pixel showed much greater scattering using the higher concentration of smaller hailstones with BTs as low as ~110, ~33, ~22, ~46, ~100, and ~106 K at 10.65, 18.7, 36.5, 89.0, 166.0, and 183.31 ± 7 GHz, respectively. These results suggest that number concentration is more important for scattering than particle size given a constant S-band radar reflectivity.

Microphysical Characteristics of Three Convective Events with Intense Rainfall Observed by Polarimetric Radar and Disdrometer in Eastern China

Polarimetric radar and disdrometer observations obtained during the 2014 Observation, Prediction, and Analysis of Severe Convection of China (OPACC) field campaign are used in this study to investigate the microphysical characteristics of three primary types of organized intense rainfall events (meiyu rainband, typhoon outer rainband, and squall line) in eastern China. Drop size distributions (DSDs) of these three events on the ground are derived from measurements of a surface disdrometer, while the corresponding three-dimensional microphysical structures are obtained from the Nanjing University C-band polarimetric radar (NJU-CPOL). Although the environmental moisture and instability conditions are different, all three events possess relatively high freezing level favorable for warm-rain processes where the high medium to small raindrop concentration at low levels is consistent with the high surface rainfall rates. Convection is tallest in the squall line where abundant ice-phase processes generate large amounts of rimed particles (graupel and hail) above the freezing level and the largest surface raindrops are present among these three events. The storm tops of both the typhoon and meiyu rainbands are lower than that in the squall line, composed of less active ice processes above the freezing level. The typhoon rainrate is more intense than that of meiyu, enhanced by higher coalescence efficiency. A revised generalized intercept parameter versus mass-weighted mean diameter (Nw-Dm) space diagram is constructed to describe the DSD distributions over the three events and illustrate the relative DSD positions for heavy precipitation. DSDs of these intense rainfall convections observed in this midlatitude region of eastern Asia somewhat represent the typical DSD characteristics in low latitudes, suggesting that the parameterization of microphysical characteristics in eastern China in numerical models needs to be further investigated to improve rain fall forecasts in these heavy rainfall events.

Intraseasonal Variations of Summer Convection over the Tibetan Plateau Revealed by Geostationary Satellite FY-2E in 2010–14

Based on the infrared black body temperature (TBB) observed by the geostationary meteorological satellite FY-2E from 2010 to 2014, the seasonal migration, occurrence frequency, and intraseasonal variability of summer convection over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its surrounding areas are analyzed. The results show that in May, convection mainly occurs over the eastern edge of the TP; in June, following the onset of the Asian summer monsoon, the strongest (severe) convection occurs in the southeastern part of the TP; and in July–August, strong southwesterly winds transport abundant moisture to the eastern and central areas of the TP, leading to formation of an active convection belt over southeastern TP. The results also show that in the western TP, the area with convection frequency greater than 6% occupies the southern plateau around the 37th pentad, and gradually moves northward until the end of July; in the central plateau, convection (severe convection) becomes active since early (mid) June, and maintains through the entire late summer with three major northward movements until reaching 34°N; and in the eastern TP, the convection is relatively active since the beginning of May and its northward stretching is slightly later than that over the central plateau. Overall, summer convective activities are unevenly distributed over the TP, with frequency of convection decreasing from south to north; and they also exhibit considerable intraseasonal variability, the maximum of which is found over the middle reach of the Yarlung Zangbo River and the southeastern plateau. EOF analysis of summer convection frequency over the TP reveals two leading modes, with the first mode being a dipole variation pattern between the Indian monsoon region and the southeastern TP, and the second mode a tripole pattern over the western TP, the Indian continent west of 80°E, and the South Asian continent east of 80°E.

Convective initiation and storm life cycles in convection‐permitting simulations of the Met Office Unified Model over South Africa

Convective initiation is a challenge for convection‐permitting models due to its sensitivity to sub‐km processes. We evaluate the representation of convective storms and their initiation over South Africa during four summer months in Met Office Unified Model simulations at a 1.5‐km horizontal grid length. Storm size distributions from the model compare well with radar observations, but rainfall in the model is predominantly produced by large storms (50 km in diameter or larger) in the evening, whereas radar observations show that most rainfall occurs throughout the afternoon, from storms 10–50 km in diameter. In all months, the modelled maximum number of storm initiations occurs at least 2 hr prior to the radar‐observed maximum. However, the diurnal cycle of rainfall between the model and observations compares well, suggesting that the numerous storm initiations in the simulations do not produce much rainfall. Modelled storms are generally less intense than those in radar observations, especially in early summer. In February, when tropical influences dominate, the simulated storms are of similar intensity to observed storms. Simulated storms tend to reach their peak intensity in the first 15 min after initiation, then gradually become less intense as they grow. In radar observations, storms reach their peak intensity 15 min into their life cycle, stay intense as they grow larger, then gradually weaken after they have reached their maximum diameter. Two November case studies of severe convection are analysed in detail. A higher resolution grid length initiates convection slightly earlier (300 m as opposed to 1.5 km) with the same scientific settings. Two 1.5 km simulations that apply more subgrid mixing have delayed convective initiation. Analysis of soundings indicates little difference in the convective indices, suggesting that differences in convection may be attributed to the choice of subgrid mixing parameters.

Cloud Features of Tibetan Plateau Vortex Category Cloud Cluster over Different Regions along the Eastward-Moving Path in Summer

Using the data of CloudSat satellite, FY series satellite, CMORPH hourly precipitation, and ERA-interim reanalysis products, this paper aims to reveal the cloud features of Tibetan Plateau Vortex (TPV) category cloud clusters over its eastward-moving regions. 107 cases of eastward-moving TPV category that occurred in the summer half-year (April to September) are picked out, and then the cloud features of them are further analyzed by statistics. The results show that the eastward-moving TPV category occurs mostly in May and June, but leastly in July and September. With consecutive enhancement of precipitation intensity and convection intensity, an increasing trend is found in the proportions of deep convection clouds and multiple layer clouds during the TPV category eastward movement. In order to reveal the inner connection among the precipitation intensity, the convection intensity, and the microphysical characteristics of TPV category cloud clusters, the TPV category cloud clusters are classified into different categories by the criteria of the precipitation intensity and the convection intensity separately. Consequently, the two different criteria share the commonality that the number concentration of both ice crystal and cloud droplets increases obviously with the enhancement of precipitation intensity or convection intensity. However, the discrepancy of conclusions also exists between the two classification criteria. A notable stretching upward trend is found in the number concentration distribution of the ice crystal and downward trend in the number concentration distribution of the cloud droplet. The same increasing trend is also discovered in the effective average radius of the ice crystal and cloud droplet. But the TPV category cloud clusters with severe convection do not present the similar variation trend both in the number concentration and the effective average radius. Hence, although the above findings confirm that the precipitation intensity, the convection intensity, and the distribution of cloud hydrometers are associated and interacting mutually, the closed function relationship among them cannot be established, and other meteorology factors related to the ambient conditions should also be taken into consideration as a complete cloud microphysical system.

Evaluation of Supercell Storm Triggering Factors Based on a Cloud Resolving Model Simulation

An attempt has been made in this study to examine the conditional instability parameters in the selected area and to determine the main ingredients responsible for initiation and evolution of supercell storm over Skopje, Macedonia on 6 August 2016. WRF model forecasts provide the basic meteorological parameters for cloud model initialization and the detail information about atmospheric instability potential as triggering factor for severe convection. The cloud model simulation has been performed with very fine spatial and temporal resolution capable to resolve the detail aspects of convection. The results utilizing this novel method suggest that, upper level lifting, moisture advection, large CAPE, near surface convergence and increased potential vortices in the selected area play substantial role in early assessment of the atmospheric status, convective instability and storm potential. In addition the directional wind shear (veering) at the near surface layer, high storm helicity index, differential heating induced by the strong local forcing environment serve as triggering factors for initiation of supercell storm with rotational updrafts-mesocyclone. The cloud model simulation with fine resolution allows more detail insight into the storm dynamics and the mechanism of generation of rotational updrafts and mesocyclone, a hook echo signature and the presence of bounded weak echo region as ingredients for supercellular structure and evolution. The overshooting top of 15 km, peak updraft speed of 40 m/s, wind gust of 35 m/s and reflectivity which exceeds 70 dBZ indicates to the occurrence of a very severe storm. A longer live cycle of storm and the intense water production, with extreme rainfall rate of 38 mm/5 min, contribute to formation of excessive torrential rainfall and local catastrophic flooding.

Partnering Research, Education, and Operations via a Cool Season Severe Weather Soundings Program

AbstractRecent research has improved our knowledge and forecasting of high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) severe convection, which produces a large fraction of overnight and cool season tornadoes. However, limited near-storm observations have hindered progress in our understanding of HSLC environments and detection of severe potential within them. This article provides an overview of a research project in central North Carolina aimed toward increasing the number of observations in the vicinity of severe and nonsevere HSLC convection. Particularly unique aspects of this project are a) leadership by student volunteers from a university sounding club and b) real-time communication of observations to local National Weather Service Forecast Offices. In addition to an overview of sounding operations and goals, two case examples are provided that support the potential utility of supplemental sounding observations for operational, educational, and research purposes.

Observations of a tornado at an Automatic Weather Station in northern Tasmania

On 15 April 2009, the Automatic Weather Station (AWS) at Scottsdale, in north-eastern Tasmania, recorded a wind gust of 54 ms-1 (194 kmh-1) as an active squall line crossed the state. Investigation of the environment, instrumentation, and damage resulted in the conclusion that this was a genuine wind gust caused by a tornado passing very close to the anemometer. This was the first direct AWS observation of a tornado in Australia, and one of very few such observations in the world. In this report, we document the weather event which produced the tornado, briefly outline the synoptic situation leading to its occurrence, document additional background observations that provide context for the event, and discuss the nature of the observations made by the AWS and the method by which the wind gust observations were verified. The squall line was part of a cold front that crossed northern Tasmania on the morning of 15 April 2009. At 300 hPa, the orientation of the short-wave trough associated with the cold front changed from positively to strongly negatively tilted as it moved over central Victoria and Tasmania. The orientation of the trough and position of a jet streak within it suggested strong upper divergence and strong vertical motion. These contributed to thunderstorm development and resulted in very substantial vertical wind shear through the lower half of the troposphere, which in turn contributed to the organisation of the severe convection. Near the surface, low cloud base and strong vertical windshear in the lowest kilometre provided conditions conducive to tornado development.

Global estimates of damaging hail hazard

A single hailstorm can cause losses in the billion-dollar range if it occurs over a densely populated area. Property losses from hailstorms are rising with time mainly due to a combination of increases in population density and wealth. Report based observational hail data alone are highly inhomogeneous and unable to discriminate between climate and societal changes. Here we present a statistical approach that estimates hail hazard from large-scale environmental conditions. Using daily ERA-Interim reanalysis data and large hail observations (diameter larger than 2.5 cm) from the conterminous United States (CONUS) we show that four predictors enable skillful discrimination of large hail frequencies on a regional scale.The predictors include atmospheric instability, freezing level height, and 0–3 km wind shear and storm relative helicity. These variables are used to develop a hail algorithm, which provides the probabilities for large hail occurrence from regional to global scales and from daily to climate timescales. The algorithm skill is tested over the CONUS and with independent hail observations from Australia and Europe. It skillfully captures the frequency, annual cycle, spatial patterns, and interannual variability of observed large hail records in a large variety of climate regions. Deficiencies are found in regions with strong orographic forcing and low shear environments. The algorithm outperforms established severe convection indices in terms of more accurately predicting absolute hail frequencies and the annual cycles of large hail in all tested regions. The code is open-source and is applicable to a variety of tasks including daily to seasonal forecasting and assessing climate change influences on hail hazard.

NowCastMIX: Automatic Integrated Warnings for Severe Convection on Nowcasting Time Scales at the German Weather Service

AbstractNowCastMIX is the core nowcasting guidance system at the German Weather Service. It automatically monitors several systems to capture rapidly developing high-impact mesoscale convective events, including 3D radar volume scanning, radar-based cell tracking and extrapolation, lightning detection, calibrated precipitation extrapolations, NWP, and live surface station reports. Within the context of the larger warning decision support process AutoWARN, NowCastMIX integrates the input data into a high-resolution analysis, based on a fuzzy logic approach for thunderstorm categorization and extrapolation, to provide an optimized warning solution with a 5-min update cycle for lead times of up to 1 h. Feature tracking is undertaken to optimize the direction of warning polygons, allowing individual, tangentially moving cells or cell clusters to be tracked explicitly. An adaptive ensemble clustering is deployed to reduce the spatial complexity of the resulting warning fields and smooth noisy temporal variations to a manageable level for duty forecasters. Further specialized outputs for civil aviation and for a public mobile phone warning app are generated. Now in its eighth year of operation, a comprehensive and complete set of thunderstorm analyses and nowcasts over Germany has been created, which is of unique value for ongoing research and development efforts for improving the system, as well as for addressing climatological aspects of severe convection. Verification has shown that NowCastMIX has helped to significantly improve the quality of the official warnings for severe convective weather events when used within the AutoWARN process.

Continuous Assimilation of Lightning Data Using Time‐Lagged Ensembles for a Convection‐Allowing Numerical Weather Prediction Model

AbstractIn this study, a lightning data assimilation method based on the time‐lagged ensembles for predicting severe convection is presented. With the lightning data assimilation scheme, the background error covariances are computed using time‐lagged ensembles, which consist of deterministic forecasts from eight forecast cycles initialized every 3 hr. Pseudo‐observations of graupel mixing ratio (qg) are retrieved from total lightning rates by utilizing empirical vertical profiles obtained from the simulation results of the previous forecast cycles, and the corresponding observation errors are estimated according to the uncertainties in the lightning observations and the empirical vertical profiles of qg. The increments of the model state variables are computed with the Kalman gain matrices and are continuously ingested into the Weather Research and Forecasting model via nudging terms acting on the prognostic equations over each time step during model integration. The effect of the lightning data assimilation scheme on convection analysis and forecast was assessed through a case study of a severe convective event, which took place in the Guangdong of China. Assimilating lightning data recovered many of the observed convective cells, suppressed the spurious convection, and corrected the displacement errors of the convective systems. Quantitative verifications indicate that forecast skills were improved mainly in the convective regions with the impact of assimilating lightning data on stratiform regions being overall less effective.

Early Warnings of Severe Convection Using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

Abstract ECMWF provides the ensemble-based extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT) products to facilitate forecasting severe weather in the medium range. Exploiting the ingredients-based method of forecasting deep moist convection, two parameters, convective available potential energy (CAPE) and a composite CAPE–shear parameter, have been recently added to the EFI/SOT, targeting severe convective weather. Verification results based on the area under the relative operating characteristic curve (ROCA) show high skill of both EFIs at discriminating between severe and nonsevere convection in the medium range over Europe and the United States. In the first 7 days of the forecast ROCA values show significant skill, staying well above the no-skill threshold of 0.5. Two case studies are presented to give some practical considerations and discuss certain limitations of the EFI/SOT forecasts and how they could be overcome. In particular, both convective EFI/SOT products are good at providing guidance for where and when severe convection is possible if there is sufficient lift for convective initiation. Probability of precipitation is suggested as a suitable ensemble product for assessing whether convection is likely to be initiated. The model climate should also be considered when determining whether severe convection is possible; EFI and SOT values are related to the climatological frequency of occurrence of deep, moist convection over a given place and time of year.

WIND SHEAR IDENTIFICATION WITH THE RETRIEVAL WIND OF DOPPLER WEARTH RADAR

Abstract. A new method, which based on the wind field retrieval algorithm of Volume Velocity Process (VVP), has been used to identified the intensity of wind shear occurred in a severe convection process in Guangzhou. The intensity of wind shear’s strength shown that new cells would be more likely to generate in areas where the magnitude generally larger than 3.0 m/(s*km). Moreover, in the areas of potential areas of rainfall, the wind shear’s strength would larger than 4.5 m/(s*km). This wind shear identify method is very helpful to forecasting severe convections’ moving and developments.

Sensitivities of Parcel Trajectories beneath the Lowest Scalar Model Level of a Lorenz Vertical Grid

Abstract Parcel trajectory analysis has become commonplace in the study of simulated severe convection, particularly that which deals with the development and maintenance of near-ground vertical vorticity. However, there are a number of unsolved problems with analyzing simulated trajectories that exist near the ground. One of these unsolved problems is how to deal with parcels that pass beneath the lowest scalar model level. Using the CM1 model, which uses a Lorenz grid, the sensitivity of parcel characteristics such as location or potential temperature to the choice of common extrapolation methods is documented. Using potential temperature as an example, it is explained why unphysical tendencies of scalar variables along trajectories may arise once parcels descend beneath the lowest scalar model level. Given the poorly constrained flow (and scalar) fields beneath the lowest scalar model level, errors such as those documented here appear unavoidable when using free-slip boundary conditions.

Relationship between ionospheric plasma bubble occurrence and lightning strikes over the Amazon region

Abstract. The vertical coupling between the troposphere and the ionosphere presents some remarkable features. Under intense tropospheric convection, gravity waves may be generated, and once they reach the ionosphere, these waves may seed instabilities and spread F and equatorial plasma bubble events may take place. Additionally, there is a close association between severe tropospheric convection and lightning strikes. In this work an investigation covering an equinox period (September–October) during the deep solar minimum (2009) presents the relation between lightning strike activity and spread F (equatorial plasma bubble) detected over a low-latitude Brazilian region. The results show a considerable correlation between these two phenomena. The common element in the center of this conformity seems to be the gravity waves. Once gravity waves and lightning strikes share the same source (intense tropospheric convection) and the effects of such gravity waves in the ionosphere include the seeding of instabilities according to the gravity waves magnitude, the monitoring of the lightning strike activity seems to offer some information about the subsequent development of spread F over the equatorial region. Keywords. Ionosphere (equatorial ionosphere)

Observations of a tornado at an Automatic Weather Station in northern Tasmania

On 15 April 2009, the Automatic Weather Station (AWS) at Scottsdale, in north-eastern Tasmania, recorded a wind gust of 54 ms-1 (194 kmh-1) as an active squall line crossed the state. Investigation of the environment, instrumentation, and damage resulted in the conclusion that this was a genuine wind gust caused by a tornado passing very close to the anemometer. This was the first direct AWS observation of a tornado in Australia, and one of very few such observations in the world. In this report, we document the weather event which produced the tornado, briefly outline the synoptic situation leading to its occurrence, document additional background observations that provide context for the event, and discuss the nature of the observations made by the AWS and the method by which the wind gust observations were verified.The squall line was part of a cold front that crossed northern Tasmania on the morning of 15 April 2009. At 300 hPa, the orientation of the short-wave trough associated with the cold front changed from positively to strongly negatively tilted as it moved over central Victoria and Tasmania. The orientation of the trough and position of a jet streak within it suggested strong upper divergence and strong vertical motion. These contributed to thunderstorm development and resulted in very substantial vertical wind shear through the lower half of the troposphere, which in turn contributed to the organisation of the severe convection. Near the surface, low cloud base and strong vertical windshear in the lowest kilometre provided conditions conducive to tornado development.

The Use of a Spectral Nudging Technique to Determine the Impact of Environmental Factors on the Track of Typhoon Megi (2010)

Sensitivity tests based on a spectral nudging (SN) technique are conducted to analyze the effect of large-scale environmental factors on the movement of typhoon Megi (2010). The error of simulated typhoon track is effectively reduced using SN and the impact of dynamical factors is more significant than that of thermal factors. During the initial integration and deflection period of Megi (2010), the local steering flow of the whole and lower troposphere is corrected by a direct large-scale wind adjustment, which improves track simulation. However, environmental field nudging may weaken the impacts of terrain and typhoon system development in the landfall period, resulting in large simulated track errors. Comparison of the steering flow and inner structure of the typhoon reveals that the large-scale circulation influences the speed and direction of typhoon motion by: (1) adjusting the local steering flow and (2) modifying the environmental vertical wind shear to change the location and symmetry of the inner severe convection.

Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States

Novel high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the US employing the pseudo-global warming approach are used to investigate changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in a future climate. Two continuous 13-year simulations were conducted using (1) ERA-Interim reanalysis and (2) ERA-Interim reanalysis plus a climate perturbation for the RCP8.5 scenario. The simulations adequately reproduce the observed precipitation diurnal cycle, indicating that they capture organized and propagating convection that most climate models cannot adequately represent. This study shows that weak to moderate convection will decrease and strong convection will increase in frequency in a future climate. Analysis of the thermodynamic environments supporting convection shows that both convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) increase downstream of the Rockies in a future climate. Previous studies suggest that CAPE will increase in a warming climate, however a corresponding increase in CIN acts as a balancing force to shift the convective population by suppressing weak to moderate convection and provides an environment where CAPE can build to extreme levels that may result in more frequent severe convection. An idealized investigation of fundamental changes in the thermodynamic environment was conducted by shifting a standard atmospheric profile by ± 5 °C. When temperature is increased, both CAPE and CIN increase in magnitude, while the opposite is true for decreased temperatures. Thus, even in the absence of synoptic and mesoscale variations, a warmer climate will provide more CAPE and CIN that will shift the convective population, likely impacting water and energy budgets on Earth.

Improving Lightning and Precipitation Prediction of Severe Convection Using Lightning Data Assimilation With NCAR WRF‐RTFDDA

AbstractIn this study, a lightning data assimilation (LDA) scheme was developed and implemented in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Weather Research and Forecasting‐Real‐Time Four‐Dimensional Data Assimilation system. In this LDA method, graupel mixing ratio (qg) is retrieved from observed total lightning. To retrieve qg on model grid boxes, column‐integrated graupel mass is first calculated using an observation‐based linear formula between graupel mass and total lightning rate. Then the graupel mass is distributed vertically according to the empirical qg vertical profiles constructed from model simulations. Finally, a horizontal spread method is utilized to consider the existence of graupel in the adjacent regions of the lightning initiation locations. Based on the retrieved qg fields, latent heat is adjusted to account for the latent heat releases associated with the formation of the retrieved graupel and to promote convection at the observed lightning locations, which is conceptually similar to the method developed by Fierro et al. Three severe convection cases were studied to evaluate the LDA scheme for short‐term (0–6 h) lightning and precipitation forecasts. The simulation results demonstrated that the LDA was effective in improving the short‐term lightning and precipitation forecasts by improving the model simulation of the qg fields, updrafts, cold pool, and front locations. The improvements were most notable in the first 2 h, indicating a highly desired benefit of the LDA in lightning and convective precipitation nowcasting (0–2 h) applications.