Severe Climate Research Articles

Carbon option pricing and carbon management under uncertain finance theory

Against the backdrop of increasingly severe global climate change issues, more and more countries and regions are adopting carbon emission trading, which is an effective market mechanism. As an important component of the carbon market, American carbon options provide more flexible trading tools to help companies avoid price risks. Therefore, the pricing research of American carbon options is of great significance for promoting the healthy development of the carbon market. Nonetheless, existing pricing methods are all based on probability theory, which need to satisfy the premise that the distribution function is close to the true frequency sufficiently. However, usually such premise is ill-suited in carbon market. To alleviate the predicament of the need for satisfying probability theory’s premise, this work investigates American carbon option pricing under the framework of uncertainty theory, which is another axiomatic mathematical system. For this purpose, uncertain differential equation is adopted to model the price of carbon future, and pricing formulae for American call and put carbon options are derived based on this model. Real data analyses illustrate the proposed method in details. Furthermore, it provides a detailed schema of applying the American carbon option for carbon asset management, which can optimize risk control for carbon consuming enterprises.

Analysis of the influence of climate change on monthly energy consumption in Ireland

Abstract. This article focuses on the influence of climate change on energy consumption in Ireland. The purpose is to conclude this influence and give the Irish energy companies a better understanding of energy production. All the data sources were collected from the official websites of the Irish government. The article chose several climate factors such as wind speed and temperature etc. This paper especially concentrates on electronic power consumption. All these data were transformed into a monthly form. The author used linear regression models to analyse the relationships between climate factors and Energy consumption. The R studio is one of the most important tools for this research. The author creates many kinds of linear models to fit the data accurately. The main discovery of the research is that temperature has the most significant influence on energy consumption. They have a strong linear relationship. The Irish government might need to manage electricity production based on the temperature change to fit the citizens' needs and avoid risks of severe climate conditions in the future.

Climate change, agricultural transformation and climate smart agriculture development in China

Against the backdrop of increasingly severe global climate change, it has become an inevitable choice to promote the transformation of agriculture oriented to climate smart agriculture. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate realistic problem faced by China's agricultural transformation and identify key factors affecting agricultural development under the background of climate change. The paper constructs a linear econometric model and employes time series data from 1990 to 2019 to empirically test the impact of climate change and agricultural investment on agriculture in China. The results indicate that climate change has a negative impact on agriculture, while agricultural investment has a positive impact. Therefore, it is necessary to promote agricultural transformation oriented to climate smart agriculture. To this end, China must vigorously promote agricultural system reform, accelerate agricultural technological innovation, accelerate the development of agricultural big data and informatization, and strengthen financial support for agriculture.

Projected Increasing Negative Impact of Extreme Events on Gross Primary Productivity During the 21st Century in CMIP6 Models

AbstractIn the context of increasingly frequent and severe climate extremes, an understanding of the impacts of these events on gross primary production (GPP) and thus on land carbon uptake is crucial. However, research utilizing new model outputs to assess the future trends, characteristics, and driving factors of GPP reduction associated with extreme events remains limited. Here, we use model outputs from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns of negative GPP extreme events during the 21st century. We find a notable increase in negative GPP extremes globally under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario. They are characterized by longer durations and larger sizes, despite the smaller number of events. Under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario, while the total negative GPP extremes remain relatively stable, hotspots, including tropical forests, southern China, and boreal forest zones, still experience increases in negative extremes. By attributing these GPP extremes to climate conditions, we identified compound hot and dry conditions, which contributed to over 40% of the negative GPP extremes under both scenarios, as the dominant driver, followed by single‐driver dry conditions. Under SSP5‐8.5, the increasing contribution of compound hot and dry conditions leads to greater GPP reductions through prolonged and intensified negative extreme events. Compared with CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models project an asymmetry of negative and positive GPP extreme events that favors more negative extremes across most regions. Our findings highlight the escalating damage from climate extremes on future ecosystem productivity, emphasizing the urgent need for effective mitigation and adaptation actions.

Identification of common and specific cold resistance pathways from cold tolerant and non-cold tolerant mango varieties.

Mango has frequently encountered severe climate and environmental challenges such as low temperatures, seriously affecting the sustainable development of the industry. In the study, physiological measurements showed that the activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and peroxidase (POD) were found to be higher in Jinhuang (JH) mango plants than those of Tainong (TN) mango plants under cold stress, indicating cold tolerant (JH) and non-cold tolerant (TN) mango varieties were firstly determined. Subsequently, transcriptomics showed 8,337 and 7,996 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were respectively identified in JH and TN mango varieties treated at 4 °C for 36 h, while more DEGs (10,683 and 10,723) were screened when treated at 4 °C for 72 h. Quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) of the selected DEGs confirmed their transcriptional levels displayed agreement to the transcriptome data. Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analyses showed two primary cold resistant regulation pathways, photosynthesis-antenna proteins pathway and photosynthesis pathway, were both significant annotated in the two mango varieties, indicating share the common regulation mechanism response to cold stress. However, five specific cold resistant pathways, such as amino acid and carbohydrate metabolisms, were identified in JH mango variety with cold stress for longer duration, indicating the specific regulation pathways in the cold tolerant mango varieties. Furthermore, 43 ethylene-responsive transcription factors (ERFs) were significantly annotated in JH mango after cold-treated for 72 h comparing with the control group, and three of them ERF109-1, ERF017-1 and ERF017-2 were highly expressed, which may play important regulatory roles in plant cold resistance. These results provided insights into the primary and specific molecular mechanisms of different mango varieties resistance to chill.

Analysis of New Energy Generation Technology Based on the "Dual Carbon" Goal

With the increasingly severe global climate change issues, achieving the "dual carbon" goal has become a common pursuit for China and the world. The development of new energy power generation technology is of great significance for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and optimizing energy structure. This article first outlines the background and significance of the "dual carbon" goal, and analyzes its driving effect on new energy power generation technology. Subsequently, this paper discusses in detail several mainstream new energy power generation technologies, including wind energy, solar energy, biomass energy, and geothermal energy, and systematically analyzes their development status and challenges. In the part of technological innovation, this paper focuses on the application and innovation trend of smart grid technology, energy storage technology and power electronics technology in the field of new energy power generation. In addition, this paper also evaluates the economy of new energy power generation technology, including cost-benefit analysis and the impact of policy environment. Finally, this paper summarizes the research results and puts forward the direction and suggestions for future research.

Green Technology Innovation and Carbon Emission Performance of the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration: Mechanism and Spatio-Temporal Evolution

Amid the increasingly severe global climate change situation, green technology innovation has become an important means to promote carbon reduction and achieve the transition to a low-carbon economy. This study aims to systematically analyze the relationship between green technology innovation and carbon emission performance in the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, exploring the degree of coupling and coordination between different cities. Utilizing data from 2011 to 2021, we employ methods such as the Coupling Coordination Degree Model and fixed effects model to achieve our objectives. Our findings reveal that both green technology innovation and carbon emission performance in this region are on an upward trend; however, the growth rate of green technology innovation showed a slowdown in 2021. Notably, there are disparities in the coupling coordination degree among cities, with economically developed areas exhibiting a faster growth rate. Moreover, green technology innovation significantly enhances carbon emission performance, and heterogeneity tests indicate that this impact is even more pronounced in cities with weaker environmental regulations. Despite regional differences, the overall trend remains positive.

Deciphering the complex interplay: Heterogeneous, threshold, and mediation effects of trade openness on CO2 emissions in Africa.

Despite having barely anything to do with the issue of CO2 emissions, Africa has been experiencing more severe climate change and its adverse effects than most other regions of the globe. However, the issue of CO2 emissions and its adverse effects has received relatively little attention in the African research arena. To this end, the present research assesses the effect of trade openness on the CO2 emissions utilizing panel data from 46 African countries spanning 2000 through 2022. To account for the possible heterogeneity and nonlinearity, the panel quantile regression and threshold methods were employed. Moreover, this study investigates the key mediating effects of the channel. The empirical findings show that greater trade openness is associated with significantly higher CO2 emission, additionally; it demonstrates that the influence is heterogeneous across different CO2 emission quantiles in African countries. Besides the result from the double threshold model reveals a complex, nonlinear relationship between trade openness and CO2 emissions in Africa. Moreover, the findings divulge that openness to trade indirectly reduces CO2 emissions through the substitution and technology channels whereas it indirectly increases carbon dioxide production via the economic track. Therefore, it is vital to promote the use of renewable energy, effectively leverage the knowledge spillover effects of trade to decrease energy intensity and formulate pertinent policies aimed at curbing carbon emissions and addressing the imminent threat of climate change in Africa. Besides, the nonlinear and heterogeneous effects of trade openness on CO2 emissions suggest that policies and interventions related to the impact of trade openness on CO2 emissions should consider the current level of carbon dioxide emissions.

International trade makes European food markets less vulnerable to concurrent and recurrent climate extremes

Abstract Extreme weather events are occurrences of unusually severe weather or climate conditions that can devastate local communities, agriculture and natural ecosystems. Due to climate change, these extreme events are becoming increasingly more likely, lasting longer, and more severe in impact. In this paper, we illustrate the potential effects of concurrent and recurrent extreme weather events on EU agricultural commodity markets and, in particular, on production and trade. A combination of concurrent and recurrent events is expected to have a negative and compounding effect on domestic food supply and trade, making EU agricultural markets less resilient. A set of scenarios based on record low yields show how EU production could be drastically affected in the coming two years compared to a business-as-usual situation. Market disruptions would be potentially larger for commodities in which the EU has a strong net exporter position, such as wheat. In the absence of extremes in non-EU regions, trade reveals as a key element in buffering the adverse impacts of extreme events in the EU.

Optimization of indoor thermal environment for high-altitude sentry buildings with attached ventilation based on proper orthogonal decomposition

The low-oxygen and severe cold climate characteristics of high-altitude regions significantly impact individuals' physiological health and thermal comfort inside buildings, especially for sentry buildings where the enclosure is fully exposed to the outdoors. This study aimed to optimize the indoor environment for high-altitude sentry buildings with attached ventilation. Firstly, the optimal location of exhaust outlets and oxygen sources in the heating mode of high-altitude sentry buildings was studied, and it showed high performance in terms of thermal comfort and energy efficiency. Additionally, the POD method and interpolation methods were applied to expand the sample dataset and identify the optimal combination of attached ventilation parameters and oxygen supply concentration, creating a comfortable, oxygen-enriched environment within the sentry buildings while also considering energy efficiency. The results indicate that when the optimization objective is weighted towards thermal comfort, the percentage of dissatisfied (PD) and the draught rate (DR) values under the optimal scheme are reduced by 82 % and 46.6 %, respectively, compared to previous studies. However, when the emphasis is on energy efficiency in environmental optimization, the air supply energy under the optimal scheme has a 64.4 % reduction compared to previous research results. When considering both optimization objectives simultaneously, the PD and DR values under the optimal scheme are reduced by 35.9 % and 96.9 %, respectively, compared to previous research results. These results demonstrate significant improvements in both thermal comfort and energy efficiency relative to our previous study.

Increased Frequency of Consecutive Positive IOD Events Under Global Warming

AbstractConsecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) induces more severe climate impacts than a single pIOD because of multi‐year accumulation of precipitation anomalies. Using CMIP6 outputs and reanalysis data, we show that the observed increasing trend of consecutive pIOD frequency will continue in future. The simulated frequency of consecutive pIOD increases by 131.3% over 1950–2100. More than 65% pIOD will manifest as consecutive pIOD events in the second half of this century. The increase in consecutive pIOD is dominated by the rise in mixed consecutive pIOD that contains both ENSO‐pIOD and independent pIOD. Mixed consecutive pIOD that start with ENSO‐pIOD increases fastest among all types of consecutive pIOD events. The increase is contributed by three factors: higher ENSO‐pIOD frequency, weaker biennial component of ENSO forcing, and more active pIOD triggers that are independent from ENSO. Climate extremes associated with consecutive pIOD are therefore expected to occur more frequently under global warming.

Carbon Footprint Optimization with Data Resolution Conversion via Kalman Filter for Smart Energy Hub

The severe climate changes due to global warming pushed the world to strive to reduce carbon emissions. And transitioning to renewable energy sources is essential for achieving sustainability and combating climate change. This study aims to minimize the carbon emissions for a proposed smart energy hub. This paper prioritizes the minimization of carbon emissions, considering the minimization of operational running costs, and the maximization of profit. In this paper, two optimization scenarios were studied to compare the results. In the first scenario, the minimization of carbon emissions was achieved. In the second scenario, the minimization of running costs and the maximization of profit from the hub assets were studied. The proposed model was designed in MATLAB. Then, the results were verified by CPLEX and validated by RTDS. The multi-objective model was presented to obtain the optimal operation. The mitigation of data uncertainty was achieved by applying the Kalman filter. In this work, a novel method was proposed for the estimation of the quarter-hour resolution data from the hourly ones via the Kalman filter rather than by applying the classic polynomial interpolation methods.

Unlocking the solution-phase molecular transformation of biochar during intensive rainfall events: Implications for the long-term carbon cycle under climate change

The unclear turnover of soluble and solid phases of biochar during increasingly severe climate change (e.g., intensive rainfall) raised questions about the carbon stability of biochar in soil. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the molecular-level transformations occurring in both the soluble and solid phases of biochar subjected to prolonged wet-dry cycles with simulated rainwater. Biochar properties, including surface functionality and carbon texture, greatly affected the transformation route and led to a distinct stability variation. The rich alkyl −CH3 on the low-temperature biochar (450 °C) was oxidized to hydroxymethyl −CH2OH or formyl −CHO, and the ester −COOC− or peptide −CONHC− bonds were fragmented in the meantime, causing the release of protein- or lipid-like organic carbon and the declined carbon stability (Æ, tested by H2O2 oxidation, from 60.1% to 53.2%). After a high-temperature (750 °C) pyrolysis process, only oxidation of the surface −OH with limited bond breaking occurred after rainwater elution, presenting a marginal composition difference with constant stability. However, the fragile carbon nature of biochar, caused by CO2 activation, led to enhanced fragmentation, oxidation, and hydration, resulting in the release of tannin-like organic carbon, which compromised the carbon storage (Æ decreased from 81.2% to 73.0%). Our findings evaluated the critical transformation of biochar during intensive rainfall, offering crucial insights for designing sustainable biochar and achieving carbon neutrality.

Flood risk assessment under the shared socioeconomic pathways: a case of electricity bulk supply points in Greater Accra, Ghana

This study evaluates flood susceptibility and risk on Bulk Supply Points in the Greater Accra region (GAR) using a Frequency Ratio model based on 15 flood conditioning factors. The model explores the influence of natural, meteorological and anthropogenic factors on flooding occurrences under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios and assesses flood risks at Bulk Supply Points (BSPs). Flood susceptibility mapping was conducted for both current and future periods under various SSP scenarios. Results reveal that elevation, slope, soil type, distance from urban areas, and SPI are the most influential factors contributing to flooding susceptibility in the region. The current flood map, about 37% of the total area of GAR categorized under the moderate flood-susceptible zone category followed by about 30% categorized under the low flood-vulnerable zone. However, about 16% was categorized under the very high flood-vulnerable zone. The study projects increasing flood susceptibility under the SSP scenarios with intensification under SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios. For instance, the areas categorized as high and very high flood susceptibility zones are projected to expand to approximately 32% and 26% each by 2055 under SSP3. The study also assesses flood risks at Bulk Supply Points (BSPs), highlighting the escalating susceptibility of power assets to flooding under different scenarios. For instance, in the very high scenario, flooding is estimated to reach 640 h in 2045 and exceed 800 h in 2055—more than double the 2020 baseline. The analysis shows the bulk supply points face increasing flood susceptibility, with risks escalating most sharply under the severe climate change SSP3 and SSP5 scenarios. Over 75% of BSPs are expected to fall in the low- to medium-risk categories across SSPs while more than 50% of BSPs are within medium- to high-risk categories in all scenarios except SSP1, reflecting the impact of climate change. SSP3 and SSP5 stand out with over 60% of BSPs facing high or very high flooding risks by 2055. It indicates moderate resilience with proper adaptation but highlights potential disruptions in critical infrastructure, such as BSPs, during persistent flooding. The findings of the study are expected to inform Ghana’s contributions towards addressing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7, 11 and 13 in Ghana.

Emerging ZnO Semiconductors for Photocatalytic CO2 Reduction to Methanol.

Carbon recycling is poised to emerge as a prominent trend for mitigating severe climate change and meeting the rising demand for energy. Converting carbon dioxide (CO2) into green energy and valuable feedstocks through photocatalytic CO2 reduction (PCCR) offers a promising solution to global warming and energy needs. Among all semiconductors, zinc oxide (ZnO) has garnered considerable interest due to its ecofriendly nature, biocompatibility, abundance, exceptional semiconducting and optical properties, cost-effectiveness, easy synthesis, and durability. This review thoroughly discusses recent advances in mechanistic insights, fundamental principles, experimental parameters, and modulation of ZnO catalysts for direct PCCR to C1 products (methanol). Various ZnO modification techniques are explored, including atomic size regulation, synthesis strategies, morphology manipulation, doping with cocatalysts, defect engineering, incorporation of plasmonic metals, and single atom modulation to boost its photocatalytic performance. Additionally, the review highlights the importance of photoreactor design, reactor types, geometries, operating modes, and phases. Future research endeavors should prioritize the development of cost-effective catalyst immobilization methods for solid-liquid separation and catalyst recycling, while emphasizing the use of abundant and non-toxic materials to ensure environmental sustainability and economic viability. Finally, the review outlines key challenges and proposes novel directions for further enhancing ZnO-based photocatalytic CO2 conversion processes.

Fossil amphibian offers insights into the interplay between monsoons and amphibian evolution in palaeoequatorial Late Triassic systems.

The severe greenhouse climate and seasonality of the early to mid-Late Triassic are thought to have limited terrestrial diversity at lower latitudes, but direct adaptations to these harsh conditions remain limited in vertebrates at the palaeoequator. Here, we present Ninumbeehan dookoodukah gen. et sp. nov., an early amphibian with specialized adaptations for seasonal estivation from the upper Jelm Formation of the Late Triassic of Wyoming, USA. Ninumbeehan are found in an association of vertebrate estivation burrows across a locally dense horizon, offering insights into the evolution and ecology of vertebrates amid the challenging conditions of low-latitude Late Triassic ecosystems. Estivation chambers were excavated within point bar deposits of an ephemeral river system, recording the cyclical signature of Triassic megamonsoons and documenting a vertebrate response to annual climate extremes across tens to hundreds of seasons. Phylogenetic analysis recovers Ninumbeehan within a group of temnospondyls characterized by fossorial adaptation, underscoring the widespread adoption of burrowing and estivation in total group Lissamphibia. Ninumbeehan hints at the pivotal role seasonal dynamics played in shaping amphibian evolution.

The Impact of Drought on Terrestrial Carbon in the West African Sahel: Implications for Natural Climate Solutions

AbstractTerrestrial ecosystems store more than twice the carbon of the atmosphere, and are critical to climate change mitigation efforts. This has led to a proliferation of land‐based carbon sequestration efforts, such as re/afforestation associated with the Great Green Wall in the West African Sahel (WAS GGW). However, we currently lack comprehensive assessments of the long‐term viability of these ecosystems' carbon storage in the context of increasingly severe climate extremes. The WAS is particularly prone to recurrent and disruptive extremes, exemplified by the persistent and severe late‐20th century drought. We assessed the response and recovery of WAS GGW carbon stocks and fluxes to this late‐20th century drought, and the subsequent rainfall recovery, by leveraging a suite of terrestrial ecosystem models. While multi‐model mean carbon fluxes (e.g., gross primary production, respiration) partly recovered to pre‐drought levels, modeled total (above and below ground) ecosystem carbon stock falls to as much as two standard deviations below pre‐drought levels and does not recover even ∼20 years after the maximum drought anomaly. Furthermore, to the extent that the modeled regional carbon stock recovers, it is nearly entirely driven by atmospheric CO2 trends rather than the precipitation recovery. Uncertainties in regional ecosystem carbon simulation are high, as the models' carbon responses to drought displayed a nearly 10‐standard deviation spread. Nevertheless, the multi‐model average response highlights the strong and persistent impact of drought on terrestrial carbon storage, and the potential risks of relying on terrestrial ecosystems as a “natural climate solution” for climate change mitigation.

Late Holocene extraordinary palaeoflood events and their climatological context in the Shahe River, Huaihe River Basin, China

Palaeoflood events represent immediate hydrological responses to extreme climate change. A loess-paleosol sedimentary profile containing three overbank flood deposits (OFD1, OFD2, and OFD3) layers that recorded palaeoflood events was discovered on the platform scarp of the Shahe River, a tributary of the Huaihe River through a field investigation. Sediment samples were collected, and their physicochemical properties, as well as optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, were analyzed. The results indicated that OFD1, OFD2, and OFD3 were indeed overbank flood deposits influenced by hydrodynamic forces. However, OFD3 and OFD1 consisted primarily of sand (>60 %) in terms of particle size composition, whereas paleosol (S0), transitional loess (Lt), and Malan loess (L1) mainly comprised silt (>70 %). Moreover, the magnetic susceptibility values of OFD3 and OFD1 exceeded those of S0, Lt, and L1. The contents of Na2O, K2O, and SiO2 were higher, while their contents of Al2O3 and Fe2O3 were lower in OFD3 and OFD1. These suggested that OFD3 and OFD1 may originate from weathered bedrock materials transported from the upper reaches of the Shahe River under significant hydrodynamic forces. The particle size composition, magnetic susceptibility value, and geochemical element composition of OFD2 were similar to those of S0, Lt, and L1 but diverged significantly from those of OFD1 and OFD3, indicating that OFD2 originated from loess and soil sediments widely distributed on both sides of the valley. Through OSL dating and stratigraphic chronological framework of the sedimentary profile, these three extraordinary palaeoflood events in the Huaihe River Basin occurred during the late Holocene, ∼1470 a. The analysis of high-resolution climate proxy indicators, atmospheric circulation factors, and global mean temperature demonstrated a direct correlation between these extreme flood events and abrupt climate changes during ∼ 1470 a. This period corresponded to severe climate deterioration during the Northern and Southern Dynasties (589–420 CE) in China. These findings are crucial for enhancing our understanding of regional hydrological climate responses to global changes.

Projected impact of climate change on human health in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute relatively little to global carbon emissions but are recognised to be among the most vulnerable parts of the world to health-related consequences of climate...

Seasonal changes in altitudinal patterns of bird species richness in a temperate low-elevation mountain

Mountain environments change rapidly over short distances along altitudinal gradients, providing an ideal system for exploring the mechanisms that shape biodiversity gradients. Species richness is the most studied diversity metric in mountains, and altitudinal patterns and their shaping mechanisms have been investigated worldwide. Although the altitudinal patterns of species richness in breeding bird assemblages have been extensively studied, less attention has been paid to seasonal changes in patterns between winter and summer. Furthermore, the effects of severe climate in high-elevation areas on seasonal changes in the altitudinal pattern of species richness in insular mountains remain unclear. We investigated changes in the pattern between the breeding and wintering seasons using field and literature surveys in Mount Tsukuba (877 m a.s.l.), central Japan. Temperatures at the middle elevations of the slope are relatively higher than those at the foot of the mountain in winter. The mountain is covered with forests up to its summit. We found that the altitudinal pattern of species richness was the low-plateau during the wintering season. Low-elevation areas were havens for wintering species, whereas high-elevation areas were impoverished in wintering species. Conversely, there was no association between elevation and species richness during the breeding season. Our study suggests that the relaxation of severe climates in high-elevation areas during winter and verdant forests in the highlands during summer are critical mechanisms driving seasonal changes in the altitudinal pattern of species richness. Furthermore, we highlight that comprehensive monitoring, including wintering seasons, is essential for detecting the changes in the diversity patterns of mountain bird assemblages due to the shift in the peak of wintering species richness under ongoing climate change.