Service Index Research Articles

Hardware-level calibration of the Chitaga Water Cherenkov Detector in the GUANE array for space weather study

Water Cherenkov Detectors (WCDs) play an essential role in space weather and cosmic rays studies around the world. In this article, we present a general methodology to calibrate a WCD based finding its optimum operation point and counting the delay time of the transmission cables. The dynode charge histogram of the WCD and CORSIKA simulations validate this methodology. Finally, to illustrate the capability of WCD tomeasure fluctuations in the secondary CR flux, we studied the 07.09.2017 Forbush and compared our measurements with data obtained from the Neutron Flux Monitor at UNAM and the Kyoto Dst index service.

Tradeoffs/synergies of multiple ecosystem services based on land use simulation in a mountain-basin area, western China

Driven by economic and political influences, land-use change has become a significant factor impacting ecosystem service changes. It is vital to assess how multiple ecosystem services change under different scenarios for policy decisions pertaining to land use and ecological construction, especially for fragile mountainous areas. In this study, InVEST and scenario analyses are used to assess the changes of multiple ESs in Bailongiang watershed (BLJW), a typical mountain-basin ecotone in western China. Two indexes, ecosystem service change index (ESCI) and ecosystem service tradeoff degree (ESTD), are used to contrast the ESs change and its tradeoffs and synergies under land use scenarios, including urban and rural construction land expansion (URE), Grain for Green (GFG) and Scenario of Spatial Optimization of land use and land cover (SSO). Results show that under the URE scenario, watershed soil conservation and water yield increased with its ESCI of 3.0 × 10−4 and 61.0 × 10−4, respectively; and a slight decrease of carbon storage with its ESCI of −67.0 × 10−4. Soil conservation, water yield and carbon storage increased under GFG scenario. In addition, there are some increases of soil conservation and carbon storage with the decrease of water yield in BLJW.Different tradeoffs/synergies relationships are illustrated for different land use scenarios. The service-oriented ESTD can be used to analyze the tradeoffs/synergies of multiple ESs and serve for ESs management. The SSO scenario of optimization of human activities and natural environmental systems, will be the win-win way for sustainable land use and ecosystem management in the mountain-basin area.

The share of ecological information in the news and book flow: The comparative analysis

The authors examine and compare the shares of ecological information in the news and book flows. Having used the Russian Science Citation Index and Google Books services and analyzed the data of the Russian Book Chamber, they assessed the share of academic monographs in ecology and environmental protection. To specify the data, they have analyzed e-catalogs of several leading and regional libraries. The topic under examination is acute as it is to continue the discussion on the issues raised in the paper “The role of mass media in educating ecological consciousness” by A. G. Sokolov, ITAR-TASS Director General, presented at the 5-th All-Russia Congress on Environmental Protection (December 12, 2017). Based on their study, the authors prove that the share of ecological information in the whole flow is comparatively low and haven’t been changing for many years. The authors propose some original though well-reasoned conclusions on the role of ecological information in the modern world. The authors encourage colleagues to initiate their own studies and to enter into discussion with the authors. The article comprises links to expanded data on which the study is based.

PHP165 - THE LONG-TERM CHANGE OF MEDICAL SERVICE PRICE: AN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF SELECTED COUNTRIES

To investigate the long-term change of medical services price and explore the correlation between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and medical services price index in China and other countries including the United States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan and Singapore, with the aim to inform China's medical services price regulation. Medical services price index is one component of CPI and is used to reflect the change in medical services price. Related data since 1997 were collected from the official websites of national statistical office of the abovementioned countries. In addition to descriptive statistics analysis, the standard time series correlation methods including cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition based on vector error-correction model were used to explore the correlation between CPI and medical services price index. During the past 20 years, China has the largest average increase in medical services price, while the average growth rate of medical services price in other countries, especially in Germany and Japan, were much lower. The study found that there is a long-term correlation between CPI and medical services price index in China. The results of Granger causality test indicate that CPI and medical services price index are mutually causal. And the variance decomposition results suggested that medical services price explain about 20 percent of CPI variance in China. There is no significant correlation between the CPI and medical services price index in Germany and Japan. When compared with the countries with classical healthcare systems, China had seen much higher growth rate of medical service price which was statistically time-series correlated with CPI. The historical data of China showed 3-year lag for CPI to significantly influence medical service price, while only one-year lag for the significant influence of medical service price to be accounted in CPI.

PSY26 - Real-World Prescription Patterns and Comorbidity Burdens Among Adults with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Little research to date has examined the drug utilization pattern among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The most recent diagnosis and management guidelines for NAFLD published in 2012 recommended pioglitazone as the effective treatment. In this study, we aim to investigate the real-world drug utilization pattern and comorbidity burden among patients with NAFLD from 2012 to 2015. A retrospective observational study design was employed using the Truven Health MarketScan Commercial Database. Inclusion criteria were: 1) non-elderly patients (age ≥18-<65) who received at least one inpatient or at least two separate outpatient diagnoses of NAFLD (ICD-9: 571.8) between 1/1/2011 and 12/31/2015; 2) available insurance enrollment data for a period of 6-month before and 12-month after the index service date. Patients were excluded if they had one or more claim(s) for type 1 diabetes, chronic hepatitis, alcohol liver diseases, and gestational diabetes. Medications were examined by outpatient prescription claims. The prevalence of each medication was calculated as the number of study subjects taking the specific medication divided by the total number of eligible patients. In the overall study population (N= 76,018) diagnosed with NAFLD, the mean[±SD] age of the patients was 48.4[±10.5] years; 46.8% were male, with a mean[±SD] Charlson comorbidity index score of 1.3[±0.8], 16.9% had type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and 21.2% had lipid metabolism disorders. The proportion of pioglitazone users was 6.2% among patients with co-occurring NAFLD and T2DM, which was six times higher than that of NAFLD patients without T2DM. Compared to the low proportion of pioglitazone uptake among study subjects, metformin was the most frequent prescribed medication among NAFLD patients with T2DM (61.3%) or without T2DM (15.2%). The results showed clinical drug utilization pattern for the management of NAFLD diverged from published guidelines, suggesting promotional programs for pioglitazone use among NAFLD patients are needed.

Study of Effects of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk in the Capital Market of Iran

Cash-flow risk is one of the main factors influencing in the capital market of Iran. In this regard, the study has examined the effect of Iran's asymmetric liquidity risk in the capital market. This study is based on econometric model of EGARCH from the family of heterogeneity of variance model after extracting the positive and negative shocks analyzes that leverage effect has different effects for a unit of positive shock and a single unit of negative shock, goods price index and consumer services, exchange rate and liquidity risk on dividends. As well as significant negative impact of liquidity risk, significant positive impact of exchange rate, consumer services and goods price index can be seen on the index of dividends.

Aspects of the quality of accounting in the international context

Purpose – Analyze how the characteristics of the business environment generates differences in the quality of accounting information in the international context. Design/methodology/approach – Descriptive research with a quantitative approach. Documentation collection in the Thomson Datastream Index Service database in a sample of 1,406 companies located in twelve countries, from 2005 to 2012. Findings – Companies located in countries with lower tax burden, stronger legal environment, greater economic and financial development index, common law legal origin and higher degree of internationalization presented higher averages and significant differences in the aggregate ranking of the quality of accounting information. The type of standard accounting used also influenced the position in the aggregate ranking of the accounting information quality. Originality/value – The interaction of companies with external markets influences the choices of accounting policies. The countries’ environmental characteristics, related to transparency, economic nature, legal and tax environment, lead to various levels of the quality of accounting information reported by companies.

Systematic review: Effective home support in dementia care, components and impacts - Stage 2, effectiveness of home support interventions.

The aim of this study was to explicate the outcomes of home support interventions for older people with dementia and/or their carers to inform clinical practice, policy and research. Most people with dementia receive support at home. However, components and effectiveness of home support interventions have been little explored. Systematic review with narrative summary. Electronic searches of published studies in English using PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PsychINFO, CINAHL, Applied Social Science Index and CSA Social Services Abstracts. Databases and sources were searched from inception to April 2014 with no date restrictions to locate studies. The PRISMA statement was followed and established systematic review methods used. Using 14 components of care for people with dementia and their carers, identified previously, data across studies were synthesized. Interventions were grouped and described and effectiveness ratings applied. Qualitative studies were synthesized using key themes. Seventy studies (four qualitative) were included. Most were directed to carers and of high quality. Seven interventions for carers and two for people with dementia were identified, covering 81% of studies. Those relating to daily living, cognitive training and physical activity for people with dementia were absent. Measures of effectiveness were influenced mainly by the intensity (duration and frequency) of interventions. Those containing education, social support and behaviour management appeared most effective. These interventions reflect emergent patterns of home support. Research is required to identify effective interventions linked to the stage of dementia, which can be applied as part of routine clinical care.

Persuasion in financial advertising: Behavioral or rational?

In this paper we test whether a behavioral or a rational model is used in financial advertising. We run Granger-causality tests separately for risky and non-risky products advertising, finding that the behavioral model of advertising is supported when the ads of risky financial products and services are considered, while the rational model is true for the non-risky products ads. We ascribe this result to the dual process of reasoning operating at the level of the investor: when an investor evaluates the decision to buy risky financial products and services, he/she activates the automatic, rapid decision making process. Advertising companies anticipate this trait and implement an advertising strategy that responds to market trends, confirming the use of a behavioral model. Consistently we find that the stock index Granger-causes risky financial products ads. When non-risky financial products ads are considered, a slow and sequential process, operates, compatibly with a rational decision making process: advertising companies are aware of this and implement a strategy unrelated to the stock index. Coherently, no significant relationship is found between the stock index and non-risky financial products and services ads.

DATA EXCHANGE EVALUATION IN GLOBAL NETWORKS BASED ON INTEGRATED QUALITY INDICATOR OF SERVICE NETWORK

Context. Increasing amount of data circulating in computer systems and networks requires new approaches to the protocols and mechanisms to ensure the user experience and security of information. Evaluation of the communication effectiveness in a computer network is performed on the basis of particular criteria and quality of service indicators in the data exchange protocols in a wide area network (WAN), which does not allow to fully appreciate the quality of service efficiency, taking into account the economic costs of providing the required values of service indicators quality. An important task in this sense is the study of the complex index of efficiency of data exchange in the global computer networks, taking into account the economic costs. Objective. Consideration of the criteria of the complex index service quality, efficiency of cryptographic information protection, and effectiveness of communication in global computer networks in various ways on the basis of the exchange control integrated efficiency indicator, taking into account the economic costs of providing the required quality of service parameter value. Method. The complex index of efficiency, taking into account the economic costs to ensure the required quality of service parameter values in a global computer networks. Results. It was offered the methodics of evaluating data effectiveness in global computer networks, based on a simple multifactor analysis. Proposed and justified a comprehensive indicator of the effectiveness of data exchange, which takes into account, as the specifications (baud rate, probability and packet delivery time, etc.), and economic parameters, such as cost of deployment and network maintenance, and so on. Conclusions. The method of evaluating the effectiveness of the data on a global computer networks, based on a simple multivariate analysis is offered. With the proposed method analyzed the data transmission efficiency in networks with different technologies, such as X.25 (v.34), Frame Relay, Fast Ethernet (0.1Gb, 1Gb, 10Gb, 40 Gb) on the same criteriaIt is shown that today the most effective technology on the set of parameters a 10Gb Ethernet. The novelty of this approach lies in the possibility of technical and economic parameters combination of the communication effectiveness, it allows to introduce an integrated performance indicator. The practical use of the proposed complex index will more accurately assess the effectiveness of communication protocols, which are used in global IP-based networks, the economic costs of deployment and maintenance of the network, the cost of providing the required quality of service indicator.

Heart rate variability based stress index service model using bio-sensor

As infinite competition and materialism have become severe in the current society, stress management has emerged as a main topic. There are many causes that create stress, including external factors and personal events. Also, stress has different levels, depending on an individuals’ subjective analysis. Stress has high correlations with cardiovascular disorders and mental illness. In particular, long-term stress leads to lowered immunity, which makes people more exposed to various diseases, and brings personal and social costs. With the rapid development of the IoT, it has been easy to analyze and manage stress with the use of sensors and communications technology relating to the human body and its surroundings. This study proposes a heart-rate variability-based stress index service using a biosensor. The proposed method collects a variety of information in dual physical environments (such as temperature, humidity, and brightness) from IoT devices, and analyzes it in real-time. The discomfort index and wind chill temperature index offered by the Korea Meteorological Administration, and the temperature, humidity, noise, and brightness collected from a biosensor are the most clear factors to digitize the physical environments of stress. Also, a smart health platform analyzes different heart rates depending on individual conditions, and monitors current status. For a heart rate, the frequency of the R-R value and low frequency (LF) are analyzed. For R-R value, a maximum value detection algorithm is applied. For LF analysis, Fourier transform is used. Generally, fast Fourier transform is unable to analyze the relation between time and frequency. Accordingly, applied is a short time Fourier transform in which window size is limited in a graph so as to express an effect made by changing time effectively. A stress index is comprised of discomfort level, wind chill temperature, noise, brightness, and heart rate. The notification of risk is given to the user by signal lights indicating stability, warning, or danger. The stress index service enables a user to check the stress index in real-time over a smart health platform at any place and at any time. Therefore, it serves as a tool to notify one’s acquaintances of a risk when one faces an emergent situation or is about to be at risk.

Correlation of Democracy Indicators and Markets Returns

We perform various experiments correlating past changes of social indicators about a country with future stock market returns for that country. The 169 social indicators we use, which go back as far as the year 1900, are available from the Varieties of Democracy Project. We use two sets of data for country-wide stock market returns: data compiled by Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton covers 17 countries going back to 1900, and data from the MSCI data analytics and index service covering 45 countries going back as far as 1970. We consider five and ten year time windows. This gives us four different “studies”: MSCI 10 year, DMS 10 year, MSCI 5 year, and DMS 5 year. We find the striking result that good changes of the social indicators have a positive mean (averaged over studies) total correlation (correlation of change vectors indexed by country-year pairs) with future stock market returns in 157 out of 158 cases in which the indicator measures something good or bad for society. We obtain a result almost as strong when the correlation is aggregated differently using the separate country and year groupings. We perform statistical hypothesis testing to show that, even though the social indicators are not all independent, these result are exceedingly unlikely to be the result of random (white noise) stock market returns. We also perform “positive linear regression” of stock market return on all 158 indicators, which means that the sign of the regression coefficient for an indicator is constrained to be positive or negative according to whether a positive change of the indicator is good or bad. The fraction of data explained by positive regression is shown to be extremely statistically significant. We calculate a confidence interval for the percentage of data genuinely explained by regression, not just by fitting to noise. The lower end of the confidence window for the four studies is 11%, 14%, 6%, and 9%. We include a long appendix on the statistical theory of correlation and (unconstrained) regression. This provides background to the novel applications of hypothesis testing and confidence interval calculation in the body of the paper.

Simulating a Search Engine Service focusing on Network Performance

Large-scale computer systems like Search Engines provide services to thousands of users, and their user demand can change suddenly. This unstable demand impacts sensitively to the service components (like network and hosts). The system should be able to address unexpected scenarios; otherwise, users would be forced to leave the service. Creating tests scenarios is an alternative to deal with this variable workload before implementing new configuration in the system. However, the complexity and size of the system are a huge constraint to create physical models. Simulation can help to test promising models of search engines. In this paper we propose a method to model a Search Engine Service (SES) on small scale to analyze the impact of different configurations. We model the interaction of a typical search engine with three main components: a Front Service (FS), a Cache Service (CS) and an Index service (IS). The FS takes as input a query of user and search into a database with the support of a CS to improve the performance of the system. The proposed model processes a trace file from a real SES and based on the dependency relation among the messages, services and queries, it is modeled the full functionality of the SES. The output is, on one hand a simulated trace file to compare the model with the real system and on the other hand statistics about performance. The simulation allow us to test configurations of FS, CS, and IS, which can be unlikely in the real system.

Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed, Something Blue: Part 3 – An Elephant Never Forgets

AbstractForgetting is an oft-forgotten art. Many artificial intelligence (AI) systems deliver good performance when first implemented; however, as the contextual environment changes, they become out of date and their performance degrades. Learning new knowledge is part of the solution, but forgetting outdated facts and information is a vital part of the process of renewal. However, forgetting proves to be a surprisingly difficult concept to either understand or implement. Much of AI is based on analogies with natural systems, and although all of us have plenty of experiences with having forgotten something, as yet we have only an incomplete picture of how this process occurs in the brain. A recent judgment by the European Court concerns the “right to be forgotten” by web index services such as Google. This has made debate and research into the concept of forgetting very urgent. Given the rapid growth in requests for pages to be forgotten, it is clear that the process will have to be automated and that intelligent systems of forgetting are required in order to meet this challenge.

Depression Index Service Using Knowledge Based Crowdsourcing in Smart Health

The development of the IT convergence technology has been serving as the basis for the application of the IoT devices to the products being used in our everyday life, such as clock, health band, scale, TV, light and doorlock. The government and companies have been developing the IoT-based smart home, smart city and smart health to enhance the national health as well as the life convenience. In particular, the government has been providing its diverse supports to the smart health in order to utilize electronic medical records, personal health record and self-diagnosis. The Ministry of Health and Welfare has been expanding the self-diagnosis service through conducting an epidemiologic survey on mental illness and mental health, the two issues that are becoming a major problem in our society. The results of the survey-based self-diagnosis may vary depending on the environment surrounding the users as well as the mental state of the users. In this paper, we propose the depression index service using the knowledge-based crowdsourcing within the smart health platform. The proposed method provides the index suitable for the context of each user through using the knowledge-based crowdsourcing within the smart health platform to compare the actual users with the similar users and predict the depression level. The prediction of the depression index uses the collaborative filtering model based on the comparison of users with other users, and uses the crowdsourcing to supplement the sparsity problem. CES-D is used as the criterion for determining the depression level, and the CES-D data is collected through the crowdsourcing. In the preexisting crowdsourcing process, the highly expert/reliable knowledge base to which the context information of the users is applied is constructed. The context information of the users is additionally collected through the self-diagnosis process, and the data are determined through the preconditioning process. The actual users data and determined data are applied to the Pearson's correlation coefficient to analyze the similarity level of between the actual/preexisting users. Then the analyzed similarity is used to service the result of the self-diagnosis to the actual users. This is a flexible service to which the context information of the users is applied, and it contributes to the users' decision-making.

Sleep quality and health service utilization in Chinese general population: a cross-sectional study in Dongguan, China

ObjectivesThe aims of this study were to explore the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and health service utilization in Chinese general population, to investigate the association between PSQI and health service utilization and to identify the independent contributions of social demographic variables, health related factors and PSQI to health service utilization. MethodsIn a cross-sectional community-based health survey using a multi-instrument questionnaire, 4067 subjects (≥15 years old) were studied. The Chinese version of the PSQI was used to assess sleep quality. Health service utilization was measured by recent two-week physician visit and annual hospitalization rates. ResultsHigher PSQI scores were associated with more frequent health service utilization. Higher scores in subjective sleep quality were associated with higher rate of recent two-week physician visit (adjusted OR = 1.24 per SD increase, P = 0.015). Higher scores in habitual sleep efficiency (adjusted OR = 1.24 per SD increase, P = 0.038) and sleep disturbances (adjusted OR = 2.09 per SD increase, P < 0.001) were associated with more frequent annual hospitalization. The independent influence of PSQI on the risk of recent two-week physician visit was 0.7%, and that of annual hospitalization 31.4%. ConclusionsPoorer sleep quality predicted more frequent health service utilization. The independent contribution of PSQI on health service utilization was smaller than social demographic variables.

Travel and tourism competitiveness index: The impact of air transportation, railways transportation, travel and transport services on international inbound and outbound tourism

The objective of the study is to examine the impact of air transportation, railways transportation, travel and transport services on international inbound and outbound tourism in a panel of 19 tourists - oriented countries, over a period of 1990–2014. By applying principal component analysis, the study constructs travel and tourism competitiveness index for inbound and outbound tourism. The main constructs of inbound tourism index include international tourists' arrival, tourism receipts, receipts of passengers' transports items and travel items while the constructs of the outbound index include international tourists' departure, tourism expenditures, and expenditures for passengers transport and travel items. The result of panel Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) regression shows that the presence of air transportation, railways transportation, and trade openness positively affect inbound tourism index, while travel and transport services negatively affect tourism competitiveness index. The causality results confirm the bidirectional relationship between inbound tourism, air transportation, railways passengers carried, trade openness and travel and transport services, while there is a unidirectional causality running from inbound index to railway goods transported, from air transport freight to trade factor, and from travel services to air transport freight. Outbound tourism index confirmed the bidirectional causality relationship with air transportation, railways transportation, and travel and transport services, while the causality running from outbound index to trade factor, from air transport passenger carried to travel services, and from railway goods transported to trade and transport services, which support the unidirectional causality relationship between them. The variance decomposition results show that air transportation freight is the contributor that largely influences inbound-outbound tourism, while railways passengers carried and trade openness has the least share to influence inbound and outbound tourism index for the next 10-year period. The impulse response function indicates that air transportation, railways transportation, trade openness and travel services will positively impact on inbound truism while travel and transport services will positively affect outbound tourism for the next 10-year period. The study concludes with the importance of transportation sector that deem desirable to promote tourism worldwide. The concentration of different modes of transportation including air transportation, railways transportation, and travel and transport system would helpful to advance international tourism.

PHR Based Diabetes Index Service Model Using Life Behavior Analysis

Due to our rapidly aging society, there has been an increasing need for preventive management of chronic diseases and management of individual health conditions. Among the chronic diseases, diabetes has become one of the most important illnesses in the modern era, and there is an increasing number of diabetes patients in all age groups. With increasing concern for ubiquitous health care services and the developing information technology, there has been a rapid increase in the convenience of preventive management for various types of disease and health conditions. In addition, demand for the management of chronic diseases by using internet of things devices has been increasing. In this study, a personal health record (PHR)-based diabetes index service model is suggested by analyzing lifestyles. For the method suggested in this study, a PHR-based mobile service for users is provided while developing the diabetes index model using lifestyle analysis. By utilizing the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey provided by the Ministry of Health and Welfare as a fundamental resource, this study analyzes the correlation and differentiation of a non-diabetic group and a diabetic group. For the selection of items in correlation, a multivariate analysis algorithm is used. A PHR related to health behavior and dietary habits in the same pattern is collected from users according to pre-chosen items. The Minkowski distance formula is used for the algorithm for PHR predictive analysis for users and chosen items. Resources on health conditions and dietary habits in the same pattern are collected from users, while calculating similarities among diabetes patients. By using the weight of calculated similarity, a diabetes index is derived. In addition, a management information service for preventing diabetes is offered through derived resources. A mobile application is developed from a smart health care platform to provide services at any time and any place. The mobile application's interface is configured for users to conveniently enter the PHR and check their health conditions on a real-time basis. It is feasible for each user to check the results from feedback by using the PHR. This quantifies the diabetes index and provides information about desirable health behavior and dietary habits related to diabetes at the same time. Users are able to conveniently apply them in real life with the provided services. Therefore, it is available to improve the health conditions of users and to prevent disease.

Mining Based Urban Climate Disaster Index Service According to Potential Risk

As weather observation technology develops, natural disasters such as typhoon, earthquake, and heavy snow can be easily monitored as well as basic weather elements such as temperature, precipitation, wind, and air pressure. Advanced IT enables the statistical analysis of weather information and converged weather service. A variety of studies are being performed to analyze and utilize weather, temperature, humidity, etc. by using these IT convergence technology and weather observation technology. Meteorological Administration develops and provides the weather index to help the daily life of people by using weather elements. Influence of weather on life, industry and health is calculated by using indexes to provide weather index service. The weather index services are classified into life weather index, industry weather index and health weather index according to use. Weather indexes are correlated to each other as they are calculated by using common weather elements and advanced weather index service can be provided by analyzing these association patterns. The conventional service shows difference from the actual weather situation around the user as it is calculated by using weather information measured at the observation points. To improve this, personalized service can be provided by using context information-based ontology modeling and reasoning engine. This paper intends to propose a mining-based urban climate disaster index service according to potential risk. The proposed method constructs XML files provided by Meteorological Administration and Open Data Portal in the form of a tree by using the DOM parser and preprocesses it. Emerging risks are selected among socially important issues by using disaster-related keywords and early detected by using the previously developed WebBot. The collected weather indexes are normalized to construct weather index transactions. FP-Tree for mining is used to construct the weather index frequent pattern tree and extract association sets. Natural disaster risk, social disaster risk, and life safety risk are calculated from the extracted association sets. Urban climate disaster index is calculated by considering common elements among potential risks, weather information, disaster information, and emerging risk. Experimental application is tried to develop and verify its logical validity and effectiveness of urban climate disaster index monitoring. Therefore, urban climate disaster index service detects, predicts, and analyzes the trend of various risks such as disasters and safety accidents. It is also used for decision in disaster management in order to determine risks based on natural, man-made, and social disasters and predict future progress and direction of spread.

关中-天水经济区生态系统服务权衡与协同关系

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 关中-天水经济区生态系统服务权衡与协同关系 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201408261688 作者: 作者单位: 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院 陕西西安,陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院 陕西西安,武汉大学测绘学院 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(41371020);中央高校特别支持项目(GK2015020210) Ecosystem service trade-offs in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region of China Author: Affiliation: College of Tourism and Environment,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710062,, Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:陆地表层植被作为生态系统主体,具有调节气候、水文调节、净化水质、保持水土等生态系统服务。理解生态系统服务权衡与协同的表现类型、形成机理、尺度依存和区域差异,对于制定区域发展与生态保护"双赢"的政策措施具有重要意义。以关天经济区为主要研究对象,利用相关模型,计算关天经济区生态系统NPP,固碳释氧,水文调节,水土保持,粮食生产等生态系统服务价值,利用ESCI和ESSI两个指数研究其生态系统服务价值时空变化,利用相关系数和空间制图的方法研究它们之间的相互权衡协同关系。结果表明:从时间角度分析,各项生态服务价值都呈现逐渐增加的趋势;从空间角度分析,2000年和2010年存在相似的空间分布格局,从北向南,NPP和固碳释氧的价值逐渐增大,水土保持价值变化量的大小也呈现不断增加的趋势,北部变化量小,南部变化量大,水文调节价值从西向东增大,从北向南增大,粮食生产价值量最小的是西安市市区,粮食生产价值量最大的是西安市的郊区和郊县及咸阳市。2000年到2010年间,调节型生态系统服务与供给型生态系统服务之间存在着此消彼长的权衡关系;各个区县的总生态服务价值指数从北向南、从西向东是不断增大的。 Abstract:The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) has highlighted the dependence of human well-being on ecosystem services. In recent studies, the links between nature and the economy are often described using the concept of ecosystem services, which is the flow of value, measured as the quantity of natural resources, to human societies. Natural ecosystems provide society with important goods and services. With the rapid increase in human population and the excessive utilization of natural resources, humans frequently enhance the production of some services at the expense of others. Although the need for trade-offs between conservation and development is urgent, the lack of efficient methods to assess such trade-offs has impeded progress. This study focused on the evaluation of ecosystem services under different land use practices in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region of China using indices such as the ecosystem services change index (ESCI) and ecological service status index (ESSI). GIS-based techniques were used to map spatial and temporal distributions as well as the changes in ecosystem services. Research on the trade-offs and synergies between these ecosystem services were based on a correlation rate model and on distribution mapping. The results of the study show that (1) the ESCI value of Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and carbon sequestration increased in the western or northwestern regions of the area under study, while there was a loss of NPP and carbon sequestration in the eastern region. The water conservation value in the eastern region significantly increased, whereas it decreased in the western part. The other areas show no change. There was a gain in agricultural production in all regions, except Xi'an city. The ESSI value was the largest in Tianshui City, and showed a decreasing trend from west to east. (2) All of these services show trade-offs and synergy. Carbon sequestration was based on the NPP value, so the correlation coefficient was 1. The spatial pattern of soil conservation and water conservation were similar, so they have a higher correlation coefficient. Lastly, (3) ecological service was prominent in Baoji City, followed by the cities of Weinan, Xianyang, and Xi'an. Supporting ecological services were the highest in Fengxian County, followed by the counties of Zha Shui, Taibai, and Hua Yin. In contrast, supporting ecological services were the lowest in Gan Gu County, followed by the counties of Da Li and Qin An. Provisioning ecological services were high with the highest being in Fengxian County followed by Xian Yang City, and lowest in Taibai County. Looking at the spatial distribution, the total ecosystem services index increases from north to south and from west to east. The indexes for the cities and counties in the north were significantly lower than for those near the southern Qinling Mountains; therefore, the index was lower for the western part than for the eastern part. Provisioning ecological services, of which agricultural production accounts for a large proportion in the central area, was stronger than in the other areas. From 2000 to 2010, the total index of ecological services increased, although there was a slight decrease in some areas, mainly in the cities of Tianshui and Tongchuan. The Qinling-Taibai mountain region did not register any significant changes. From 2000 to 2010, all of these services presented trade-offs and synergy, especially in Baoji City. The supporting ecosystem services index in Fengxian County was the highest and had a NPP and carbon sequestration of 1, but agricultural production was very small at 0.0057. The food production index was the highest at 1, but the supporting ecosystem services index was low. This study suggests that the evaluation and visualization of ecosystem services could effectively assist in understanding the trade-offs between conservation and development. The results have implications for the planning and monitoring, which can be integrated into land use decision-making, of the future management of natural capital and ecosystem services. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献