Service GDP Research Articles

An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach to Understanding the Impact of Agriculture, Industry, and the Service Sector on GDP in Bangladesh

The agriculture, industry, and service sectors are the three main sectors of Bangladesh's economy. Using the ARDL model, this study experimentally investigated the short-term and long-term effects of these three sectors on Bangladesh's GDP from 2005 to 2022. This study based on secondary data collected from World Development Indicator, World Bank. The intended results have been determined by applying a variety of econometric time series analysis techniques, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test and the Granger Causality test. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test has assured that neither series is integrated at level two. The outcome of the F-bounds test confirmed that the existence of a long-run relationship among the examined variables. The short-run and long-run coefficient revealed that there exists a positive impact of the agriculture, industry and service sector on GDP in Bangladesh. The long-run result shows that a 1% increase in agriculture sector increases the GDP by about of 0.173%, a 1% increase in industry sector increases the GDP by about 0.294%, and a 1% increase in service sector increases the GDP by about 0.533%. The short-run result shows that a 1% increase in agriculture sector increases the GDP by about 0.204248%, a 1% increase in industry sector increases the GDP by about 0.348179% and a 1% increase in service sector increases the GDP by about 0.631402%. The result of Granger Causality test shows that service sector and GDP Granger cause bi-directionally. All the outcomes are theoretically consistent and the policy recommendation are made based on our findings.

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of China’s ICT service industry

The ICT service industry has become a burgeoning industry at a high and stable speed. Their equitable distribution can improve national and global positive peace. This paper aimed to verify the characteristics of spatio-temporal evolution and its influencing factors in the ICT service industry. Based on the data from 31 Provinces in China from 2015 to 2019, this paper uses location quotient, spatial autocorrelation methods and spatial econometric analysis to explore the development characteristics, evolution and influencing factors of the ICT service industry, respectively. The main results are shown as follows: (1) China's ICT service industry is mainly concentrated in Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Tibet, and Guangdong, with a trend of specialisation development. They are not only distributed in cities with relatively superior overall development but also those with superior industrial and development carrier elements. Technological relevance, aggregation, and political difference might have an impact on promoting the emergence and development of these industries. (2) ICT service industry is characterised by stable and highly concentrated development. Numbers between three to five significant provinces and types with high-high (HH) and high-low (HL) clusters of local spatio-temporal association kept stable in the period. The HH was in eastern coastal areas, including Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong, and the HL was in Guangdong in 2015. There is a definite spatial correlation in spatial distribution with constant strengthening. (3) TUR, NDN, MIAT and the area were shown to have a significant role in promoting the ICT service industry, while NW, GDP and ICT Employment were shown to have a significant negative impact on this industry. Correspondingly, two strategies were put forward here: (1) accelerating the inter-provincial networking development of the ICT service industry, and (2) strengthening government policy guidance for the ICT service industry. These outcomes can not only provide a scientific basis and theoretical support for the distribution of strategies and resources for these industries at the theoretical level but also improve resource integration from the national perspective and the efficiency of resource use at the practical level.

China’s Socioeconomic and CO2 Status Concerning Future Land-Use Change under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

China has experienced a huge socioeconomic advancement over the past few decades, resulting in great change in land use and land cover. To date, negligible attention has been given to examining the socioeconomic changes in the context of land-use change, especially from a futuristic standpoint. However, motivated by China’s latest carbon neutrality target, this study analyzes the prospective changes in socioeconomic status, and carbon dioxide emission in the context of future land-use change, focusing on three future periods: 2026–2030 (carbon dioxide peak phase), 2056–2060 (carbon-neutral phase), and 2080–2099 (long-term period). In this regard, recently published land-use products under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-based scenarios (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) as part of the CMIP6, as well as the projected GDP and population under five socioeconomic scenarios are used. To estimate socioeconomic change over prominent land-use types (urban), we combined five socioeconomic scenarios with seven corresponding SSPs-based land-use change scenarios (SSP1 with SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6; SSP2 with SSP2-4.5; SSP3 with SSP3-7.0; SSP4 with SSP4-3.4 and SSP4-6.0; and SSP5 with SSP5-8.5 scenarios). Our results reveal that rapid urban land expansion in the future is the most dominant aspect in China. In the carbon neutrality phase (2056–2060), urban land is expected to expand ~80% more than that of the reference period (1995–2014). In the spatial aspect, the expansion of urban land is mainly prominent in the eastern and central parts of China. For socioeconomic changes, the most prominent increase in the urban population is estimated at 630.8% under SSP5-8.5 for the 2056–2060 period compared to the reference period. Regarding GDP for the urban area, industrial GDP will be higher than service GDP in the carbon emission peak phase (2026–2030), but it is projected to be overtaken by service GDP for the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) and long-term periods (2080–2099). Further, the CO2 emission in China was found to increase with intensified urban land for the historical period (1995–2019). In the future, the largest increase in CO2 emission from the urban area is anticipated under SSP5-8.5 in the carbon-neutral target (2056–2060) phase, while CO2 emission will largely decline after (2056–2060) under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, and SSP4-3.4. Importantly, population change is expected to be the most predominant factor in future urban land expansion in China. These findings highlight the importance of well-governed urban-land development as a key measure to achieve China’s carbon neutrality goal.

High-Speed Rail, Market Access, and the Rise of Consumer Cities: Evidence From China

This study examines the impact of high-speed rail (HSR) on the formation of consumer cities in China. We employ the market access (MA) approach and construct the least-cost path spanning tree network as an instrument to estimate the causal impact of HSR development on the socio-economic changes of counties from 2007 to 2016. Through a set of IV regressions, we find that districts with high MA growth experienced service sector agglomeration, manufacturing sector decentralization, and land price appreciation. These effects are relatively large for the urban districts of first- and second-tier Chinese cities. Similarly, HSR-induced MA plays a positive role in population and economic growth. Through counterfactual analysis, we find that the absence of an HSR network decreases the growth of the number of service firms, service land price, population, and GDP growth by 6.11%, 52.2%, 7.21%, and 7.24%, respectively. These results suggest that HSR plays a key role in the rise of consumer cities by improving market access/integration, which transfers the economic structure from production to consumption.

Poison or Cure? a Study on the Periodic Sponge Effect in Denmark’s Tourism Industry

This paper investigates the crucial role of tourism with the periodic sponge effect played in the development of Denmark's industry structure. The existence of the periodic sponge effect between tourism and manufacturing is analysed by proposing an approach to calculate the periodic sponge effect index. This phenomenon describing wane and wax shifting between the industry sector and the service sector is jointly contributed by the natural seasonal variations in the tourism industry and the flexicurity labour market with flexible employment policies in Denmark. To prove that the service sector with periodic sponge effect will not cause the Dutch disease, the relationship between the service sector and GDP in Denmark are studied by adopting a unit root test, Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test. The global disaster, including the global financial crisis, can be regarded as an outlier in the periodic economic oscillation. The impacts of the financial crisis of 2008 on the alteration of industry structure are revealed. Moreover, during this economic crisis, the de-industrialisation that is a replacement of the manufacturing proportion by tourism is discussed. In terms of the unemployment issue, the depression of manufacturing is the main factor to cause the unemployment problem. Tourism becomes a significant contributor to provide job opportunities. Furthermore, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the current situation of Denmark is discussed.

Business models of Internet service providers

A business model can be perceived as a simple, yet focused, representation of the related activities of a company, which describes how to create the value of the company in terms of information, products and services. Given the significance of the Internet service infrastructure in new Internet-based business logic, notably the positive relationship between the growth of the Internet service infrastructure and GDP growth, this paper elaborates on the business model of the Internet service providers (ISPs). Accordingly, the ISPs’ business model, in the scope of connectivity service providers, based on the selected meta model (Hedman and Kalling’s ontology) at the industry level is analyzed. For validation and generalization assessment, the business components of two ISPs at the instance level and the business components of other service providers in the telecom industry (beyond the scope of this research) are compared, point by point, with the proposed business model components, respectively. The results of this study will raise the awareness of ISPs’ executives and new entrants of different aspects of this business. The proposed business model can be considered as a basic model in the area of designing new business models, especially in the area of new Internet-based technologies.

Services Sector Export in Europe

In this paper, we consider the changes that occurred in the service exports of thirty-eight European countries in the period of 2005–2016. We have found that the existing world trend related to the growth of service exports is also present in Europe. However, the trend of the service exports’ share growth in the general volume of export is not common for all European countries. We found that higher growth rates are observed in European countries with lower levels of GDP per capita. We also discovered the presence of a strong positive correlation between growth in service exports and GDP growth, as well as between growth in service exports and GDP per capita. We also found that there is a linear correlation between the growth of service exports and the growth of GDP per capita, as well as between the growth in service exports and GDP growth. The data obtained allowed us to conclude that European countries, categorized as “Innovation Leaders” in accordance with the European Innovation Scoreboard, are not the leading countries in Europe with regard to the rates of service export growth. We also discovered that service exports in Europe are less sensitive to adverse macroeconomic effects than goods exports.

Importance of the Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate in the Eurozone and V4

The purpose of this paper is to determine a potential overvaluation and undervaluation of currencies of selected eurozone countries and of the Visegrád Four. The DARER (Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate) model was used for an empirical analysis of the period between 2010–2014 in individual quarters. The advantage of this model is that it explicitly takes into consideration the development of the current account and the debt of the country in connection with the theory of purchasing power parity. The DARER model appears to be a suitable tool for the empirical analysis because, currently, there are many countries in the eurozone with a high debt. In the analysis, data on the current account, debt service payments, GDP, HICP USA and individual researched countries, the exchange rates EUR/USD and CZK/USD, PLN/USD, HUF/USD were used. According to the average overvaluation and undervaluation of currency in all observed states in the Eurozone, in total the overvaluation of the euro against the US dollar was 19.3 %. The overvaluation in individual countries varied from 6.3 % to 33.38 %. These differences in the overvaluation of states’ currency against the US dollar were caused mainly by different development of the balance of payments of the country and the country’s debt. This can indicate various levels of external imbalances among the states within the monetary union. According to the result of this research, the DARER model was able to identify varying overvaluation and undervaluation of currencies in individual eurozone states and the Visegrád Group, so it can be used by policy makers as one of the indicators of these external imbalances of individual countries in the monetary union.

Revisiting the FDI impact on GDP growth in errors-in-variables models: a panel data GMM analysis allowing for error memory

GMM estimation of autoregressive equations in error-ridden variables with error memory is considered in exploring the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on GDP from country panel data, contrasting, inter alia, the manufacturing and the service sector. To evaluate finite-sample properties of the methods selected, results from Monte Carlo simulations are reported. Contrary to the previous findings, no negative spillover effects from the service FDI on manufacturing GDP growth are obtained; the estimates indicate a positive effect, while (surprisingly) the effect of service FDI on the service GDP growth comes out as insignificant. Overall conclusions are: (1) Aggregate FDI has a positive, but insignificant effect on aggregate GDP based on the full country panel; (2) for the developing Asian countries, FDI significantly improves GDP growth; and (3) manufacturing FDI impacts both manufacturing and service GDP growth positively.

Effect of Oil Revenue and the Sudan Economy: Econometric Model for Services Sector GDP

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of oil revenue and the service GDP of Sudan for the period 2000 to 2012. To achieve this goal, secondary data were collected and analyzed using regression methods. The results reveal a causal relationship between oil revenue (independent variable) and service GDP (dependent variables). Regression analysis result suggests that oil revenue affects the service GDP positively. Oil revenue is estimated to have contributed to 78.8 percent of variation in GDP between 2000 and 2012. Furthermore, a unit change in oil revenue will cause a .0246 percent change in service GDP.

Australia Mining Boom and Dutch Disease: Analysis Using VAR Method

Abstract Australia has experienced several episodes of mining boom in its economy. Studies on the impact of mining booms on the economic growth and development indicates that, mining boom either through rise in commodity prices or mining investment tend to result in appreciation of currency thus harming the manufacturing and other sectors in the economy, while the overall gross domestic product increases and this is termed Dutch Disease. The aim of this work is to investigate the dynamic relationship between mining GDP, manufacturing GDP, service GDP and exchange-rate using vector autoregressive (VAR) approach consisting of impulse response function (IRF), variance decomposition (VDC) and VAR Granger Causality. Using annual data for the sample period 1975-2013 sourced from Australian Bureau of Statistics, we find mixed evidence presented by the IRF, while the VDC reveal that mining sector have an impact on the exchange rate. The results also suggest that mining GDP contribute to the variation in the service sector. VAR Granger causality suggest that exchange rate granger cause manufacturing and that mining granger cause services sector. The study concludes by suggesting promotion of international competitiveness in other sectors such as manufacturing and tourism, to also promote innovation and technical know-how to help avoid Dutch Disease effects that can turn mining boom into a resource curse.

Internet and International Trade in Services

The aim of this research paper is to look into empirical evidence to determine the impact of the internet upon the international service trade in the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation (OIC) over the period of 1990 - 2011. To measure the impact of the Internet upon international service trade, we apply the method of unbalanced panel data and modified gravity model. Results reveal that during the investigation period, the Internet has had a positive and significant effect on the service trade of OIC. Furthermore, there is a positive relation among service trade and GDP, financial depth and population.

Examining air pollution in China using production- and consumption-based emissions accounting approaches.

Two important reasons for China's air pollution are the high emission factors (emission per unit of product) of pollution sources and the high emission intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) of the industrial structure. Therefore, a wide variety of policy measures, including both emission abatement technologies and economic adjustment, must be implemented. To support such measures, this study used the production- and consumption-based emissions accounting approaches to simulate the SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and VOC emissions flows among producers and consumers. This study analyzed the emissions and GDP performance of 36 production sectors. The results showed that the equipment, machinery, and devices manufacturing and construction sectors contributed more than 50% of air pollutant emissions, and most of their products were used for capital formation and export. The service sector had the lowest emission intensities, and its output was mainly consumed by households and the government. In China, the emission intensities of production activities triggered by capital formation and export were approximately twice that of the service sector triggered by final consumption expenditure. This study suggests that China should control air pollution using the following strategies: applying end-of-pipe abatement technologies and using cleaner fuels to further decrease the emission factors associated with rural cooking, electricity generation, and the transportation sector; continuing to limit highly emission-intensive but low value-added exports; developing a plan to reduce construction activities; and increasing the proportion of service GDP in the national economy.

Financing Development Expenditures Through Development Aid and Its Impact on Economic Growth

The study investigates the financing development expenditures through development aid and its impact on economic growth in Pakistan using time series data for the time period 1980-2012. Ordinary least square (OLS) has been applied for the estimation of model and instrumental variables are introduced. The explanatory variables of the study are development indicators variables (life expectancy, GNI and Population Growth), Development Assistance, Gross Domestic Savings and service GDP, agriculture and GDP (per capita growth) is the dependent variable. The findings of the study suggested that Development Assistance and Development Expenditures do not have any link but individually GDP and Development Assistance seems to be having some link. So finally financing of development expenditures by development aid cannot do anything to improve growth of economy but if we consider these two variables individually.

Growth of Service Sector in India

Health and education service sector in India our wide range of service provides an end-to-end solution to all our needs in the education sector. Health is defined as a state of complete physical, mental and social well being and just not the non existence of disease or aliment. The expansion of both health and education sector have made the advancement of service sector. Fisher and Colin Clark have divided the economy into primary sector, secondary sector and tertiary sector. Service sector activities include trade, commerce, transport, communication, hotel and restaurant, banking and finance, health and education, tourism, share market, film industry , insurance, astrology industry etc. India service sector accounts more than 50 per cent of India’s Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P). There is a significant changes in sectoral contribution of each sector to india’s GDP over a period of time. Share of other services and service sector in percent and the performance of growth rates of service sector and GDP. In the decades of year 1950-51 to 2010-11

SERVICE TRADE AND NON-OIL EXPORT IN NIGERIA

The paper was set to examine the relationship between different aspects of service trade and non oil export in Nigeria as well as assess the impact of capacity development on value of service trade and the implications for improving value of non oil export in Nigeria, which includes agricultural products. Secondary data 1980 to 2010 were used. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and regression analysis. Results show that total service trade value in Nigeria has increased from $1126.59 million in 1980 to $3076.19 million in 2010. Significant correlations existed between the total value of service trade and all the types of service trade except with other service trade value. Road network, government (domestic) capital expenditure on services, agricultural credit and domestic service output (service Gross Domestic Products GDP) positively determine exportable services. Recommendations include improvement of service GDP and agricultural credit/loan facilities.

광고시장 규모결정 요인에 대한 미시경제학적 접근 및 콘텐츠 산업 재원정책 연구

Variety media based on the digital technology have emerged from the beginning of the 21th century and have competed with the traditional media in the advertisement market. With the high dependency upon the advertisement market, the Korean media industry has the urgent demand to increase it`s pie. Korea regulator allowed PPL and private representatives, which resulted in low outcome. This study analysed the decision factors for the advertising market with the cross-sectional microeconomic data for 28 countries in OECD. The service industry, tax and GDP per capita affect negatively to the market growth rate, and unemployment positively. Therefore the market`s growth speed would be slow down and the share of TV decreased. Therefore the two policies were suggested, increasing the direct payment by the audiences and retire of the inefficient broadcasters.