Climate Services Research Articles

Improvements in the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) through systematic model analysis: CanESM5.0 and CanESM5.1

Abstract. The Canadian Earth System Model version 5.0 (CanESM5.0), the most recent major version of the global climate model developed at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), has been used extensively in climate research and for providing future climate projections in the context of climate services. Previous studies have shown that CanESM5.0 performs well compared to other models and have revealed several model biases. To address these biases, the CCCma has recently initiated the “Analysis for Development” (A4D) activity, a coordinated analysis activity in support of CanESM development. Here we describe the goals and organization of this effort and introduce two variants (“p1” and “p2”) of a new CanESM version, CanESM5.1, which features important improvements as a result of the A4D activity. These improvements include the elimination of spurious stratospheric temperature spikes and an improved simulation of tropospheric dust. Other climate aspects of the p1 variant of CanESM5.1 are similar to those of CanESM5.0, while the p2 variant of CanESM5.1 features reduced equilibrium climate sensitivity and improved El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability as a result of intentional tuning of the atmospheric component. The A4D activity has also led to the improved understanding of other notable CanESM5.0 and CanESM5.1 biases, including the overestimation of North Atlantic sea ice, a cold bias over sea ice, biases in the stratospheric circulation and a cold bias over the Himalayas. It provides a potential framework for the broader climate community to contribute to CanESM development, which will facilitate further model improvements and ultimately lead to improved climate change information.

Constraining Flood Forecasting Uncertainties through Streamflow Data Assimilation in the Tropical Andes of Peru: Case of the Vilcanota River Basin

Flood modeling and forecasting are crucial for managing and preparing for extreme flood events, such as those in the Tropical Andes. In this context, assimilating streamflow data is essential. Data Assimilation (DA) seeks to combine errors between forecasting models and discharge measurements through the updating of model states. This study aims to assess the applicability and performance of streamflow DA in a sub-daily forecasting system of the Peruvian Tropical Andes using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter (PF) algorithms. The study was conducted in a data-sparse Andean basin during the period February–March 2022. For this purpose, the lumped GR4H rainfall–runoff model was run forward with 100 ensemble members in four different DA experiments based on IMERG-E and GSMaP-NRT precipitation sources and assimilated real-time hourly discharges at the basin outlet. Ensemble modeling with EnKF and PF displayed that perturbation introduced by GSMaP-NRT’-driven experiments reduced the model uncertainties more than IMERG-E’ ones, and the reduction in high-flow subestimation was more notable for the GSMaP-NRT’+EnKF configuration. The ensemble forecasting framework from 1 to 24 h proposed here showed that the updating of model states using DA techniques improved the accuracy of streamflow prediction at least during the first 6–8 h on average, especially for the GSMaP-NRT’+EnKF scheme. Finally, this study benchmarks the application of streamflow DA in data-sparse basins in the Tropical Andes and will support the development of more accurate climate services in Peru.

Determinants of readiness for strategic value co-creation in hospitality and tourism organisations

This paper examines how servant leadership influences an organisation's readiness for strategic value co-creation through service climate, innovation climate, locus of control and self-efficacy. A model that draws on servant leadership and social cognitive theories is tested by surveying 222 hospitality and tourism business managers operating in France and the UK, and the data is analysed with structural equation modelling and ordinary least squares. The study contributes to personality research showing that servant leadership practices influence a manager’s internal locus of control and self-efficacy. We demonstrate that service climate and innovation climate mediate between servant leadership and readiness for strategic value co-creation, and moderate between a manager’s beliefs and the firm’s readiness for strategic value co-creation. The findings show that servant leadership has a stronger effect on innovation climate than on service climate, and that innovation climate has more influence on readiness for strategic value co-creation than on service climate.

Exploring east African climate change risk perceptions to inform effective climate services

A better understanding of the decision context within which climate services are used is likely to be central to designing user-relevant climate services for adaptation action. As climate change presents a risk, one entry point to better understand the decision context is through an exploration of the perceptions of climate change risk. How risky climate change is perceived to be will influence whether action is taken on climate change, what decisions are made and the types of information that are used when taking action, providing valuable insights into the decision-context. This study quantifies and explores climate change risk perceptions, and its determinants, amongst policy decision influencers in east Africa. Climate change risk perceptions are found to be heightened, driven by observance of social norms, perceptions of climate change as a proximal risk, frequent experience of extreme weather events and a predominantly self-transcending (outward looking) value system among policy decision influencers. By drawing on known principles from environmental psychology, the study’s results lead to a set of suggestions about how currently available climate services could be aligned to the east African decision context to better encourage uptake and action.

Skilful predictions of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation

The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation is the primary mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region and has a significant influence on regional European, North American and Asian summer climate. However, current dynamical seasonal prediction systems show no significant Summer North Atlantic Oscillation prediction skill, leaving society ill-prepared for extreme summers. Here we show an unexpected role for the stratosphere in driving the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation in both observations and climate prediction systems. The anomalous strength of the lower stratosphere polar vortex in late spring is found to propagate downwards and influence the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation. Windows of opportunity are identified for useful levels of Summer North Atlantic Oscillation prediction skill, both in the 50% of years when the late spring polar vortex is anomalously strong/weak and possibly earlier if a sudden stratospheric warming event occurs in late winter. However, we show that model dynamical signals are spuriously weak, requiring large ensembles to obtain robust signals and we identify a summer ‘signal-to-noise paradox’ as found in winter atmospheric circulation Our results open possibilities for a range of new summer climate services, including for agriculture, water management and health sectors.

Predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale: A prototype climate service for the hydropower sector

Decadal predictions present an emerging opportunity for various socio-economic sectors affected by climate variability. However, the development of associated climate services is still in an incipient stage. This study focuses on developing a prototype climate service for an end-user in the hydropower sector. The service aimed at predicting precipitation in three drainage basins (Guadalquivir, Ebro and Po) for the next ten years, and was developed in close collaboration with the user. In this paper we do not provide the real-time forecasts, but we focus on describing and evaluating the methods and the models used. Using a European multi-model ensemble, the predictive skill for precipitation is found to vary with the calendar season, the forecast range and the drainage basin considered, though it is generally low for the purposes of supporting such a climate service. To overcome this deficiency, a hybrid approach was developed making combined use of the good skill in predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the observed dominant influence of the latter on the decadal variability of precipitation in the areas of interest. Implementing this hybrid approach, which combines predictive information from the dynamical models with statistical information from observations, brings significant skill improvements in all basins during the extended cold season (November-March) for the first 10 forecast years. The hybrid model outperforms the direct multi-model ensemble output, exhibiting statistically significant skill for all basins. Our results suggest that utilising large-scale predictors can significantly improve regional predictions, and provide usable information for the hydropower sector.

Climate change adaptation stories: Co-creating climate services with reindeer herders in Finland

Reindeer husbandry in the Arctic region is strongly affected by the local climate. Reindeer herders are used to coping with adverse weather, climate, and grazing conditions through autonomous adaptation. However, today's rapidly changing Arctic environment poses new challenges to the management of herding activities. Finding means for combining traditional and scientific knowledge without depriving any of the systems of its fundamental strengths is hence deemed necessary. In this work, we apply a transdisciplinary framework for knowledge co-production involving international researchers and reindeer herders from different cooperatives in northern Finland. Through ‘climate change adaptation stories’, we co-explore how climate predictions can inform herders' decision making during the herding season. Relevant decisions include the anticipation of summer harvest time, the inopportune periods of cold weather in spring, and insect harassment in summer. Despite their potential benefits for climate-sensitive decisions, climate predictions have seen limited uptake, mainly due to their probabilistic nature and lower quality compared with shorter-term weather forecasts. The analysis of two different adaptation stories shows that seasonal predictions of temperature for May and June can successfully advise about the likelihood of having an earlier than normal harvest. This information can be obtained up to three months in advance, helping herders to better arrange their time for other activities. Likewise, sub-seasonal predictions of temperature during April and May can be useful to anticipate the occurrence of backwinter episodes, which can support herders in deciding whether to feed reindeer in pens for longer, avoiding putting the survival of calves at risk. This study, which would benefit from co-evaluation in real world settings and consideration of additional adaptation stories, sets the basis for a successful co-production of climate services with Arctic reindeer herders. This research shows the potential to enhance the resilience of Polar regions, offering opportunities for adaptation while supporting the sustainability and culture of traditional practices of Arctic communities.

A meta-analysis of the relationship between service teamwork mechanisms and customer service outcomes

PurposeIn many contemporary service organizations, service teams or service units are the main engines used to deliver key services to customers, client or patients. However, it remains unclear how teamwork mechanisms (i.e. the ways team members work together) influence customer service outcomes, and whether these relationships vary across different service contexts. To advance knowledge on the nature of teamwork in service teams and to set an agenda for further work in this area, there is a need to integrate and synthesize findings across the diverse literature on service teamwork. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objectives.Design/methodology/approachUsing a meta-analytic approach, the authors analyzed a substantial pool of relevant effect sizes (a total of 372 effect sizes from 82 studies, with 14,291 service teams/units) to examine the effects of affective, behavioral, cognitive, motivational as well as perceptual teamwork mechanisms on customer service outcomes. The authors also investigated two key service context variables (service climate and service type) as boundary conditions on these effects.FindingsThe authors found that cognitive teamwork mechanisms were more strongly positively associated with customer evaluative outcomes than other mechanisms, whereas motivational and perceptual teamwork mechanisms had stronger associations with financial outcomes. Further, four of the five teamwork mechanisms demonstrated stronger correlations under a high service climate. The strength of the correlations between the teamwork mechanisms and customer service outcomes also exhibited different patterns when considered for different service types.Research limitations/implicationsAs with all meta-analysis, the quality of the primary studies influences the quality of the insights obtained from summarized effects. As most studies are cross-sectional design, the relationships examined in this paper cannot be interpreted causally. The authors cannot rule out the possibility of reverse causality, for example, reciprocal effects of customer service outcomes on teamwork dynamics due to the reciprocal feedback loop between customers and service providers.Practical implicationsThe results hold important practical implications for enhancing customer evaluation and financial performance. First, the overall findings point to the need for employers to emphasize on certain types of teamwork training in order to encourage employee collaboration within service teams. For instance, service organizations could plan team building activities for service teams to promote trust, strengthen interpersonal bonds and improve problem-solving.Originality/valueThe results of this study provide an integration of previous research on service teamwork and fill two important gaps in the knowledge: (1) which aspect of teamwork is more important in determining customer service outcomes? And (2) does the effect of teamwork on customer service outcomes differ across different service contexts?

Correlation between climate testing methods and service life prediction for paint systems

Correlation between climate testing methods and service life prediction for paint systems

Micro‐irrigation in Niger: The state of the art and the country's need

AbstractAfter its independence in 1960, following the droughts that occurred in particular that of 1973, 1984, and 2005, Niger promoted irrigation to feed its population through state‐led large‐scale projects. Over the years, structural problems, including the fast growing population and the effects of climate change and variability, have rendered the approach less efficient. The 2000s were marked by a change in approach that put producers at the heart. Thus, projects and programs have been initiated with the I3N initiative Nigeriens Feeding Nigeriens as a guiding strategy since 2011 to ensure sustainable agriculture and food security. Most of the projects aimed at the development of small‐scale irrigation through increased financing and new technologies to take advantage of the significant irrigable potential. Despite these efforts, the irrigation sector is yet to meet food security. This article assesses the situation of micro‐irrigation and identifies current needs. The methodology adopted consists of a review of official documentation on irrigation in Niger, data collected during agricultural fairs, such as the Sahel Niger 2020, and the 4th Edition of the Fair of Irrigation and Drainage (SAFID), combined with related literature. Results revealed the existence of an estimated irrigable land potential of 270,000 ha and 10,942,568 ha, depending on the groundwater depth. Drip technology is proving to be in full expansion, with growing interest from start‐ups and the private sector. Technological innovation is dominated by locally made and imported technologies, the emergence of digitalization, and remote irrigation. Currently, micro‐irrigation is a top priority among climate‐smart technologies, in addition to strengthening technologies for access to water resources, technical capacities of producers, particularly advisories, the strengthening of research, the popularization of micro‐irrigation technologies, access to financing and securing land tenure. Other needs persist in terms of strengthening science‐society‐policy interfaces and effective climate services for risk management.

The development of a farmer decision-making mind map to inform climate services in Central America

The growing complexity of the relationship between climate information and agricultural decision-making necessitates the development of relevant and timely climate services for farmers. These services can effectively support risk management strategies in agriculture by fostering a comprehensive understanding of the intricacies involved in farmer decision-making dynamics. This paper addresses this critical gap by analyzing the drivers influencing decision-making processes that shape adaptation strategies for staple grain and coffee farming systems in Central America. The study answers the following research questions: (i) Does the mind map tool effectively provide a holistic understanding of farmers' decision-making processes? (ii) How do Central American farmers make decisions within their farm systems at multiple timescales? (iii) Which climate factors trigger these decisions? Employing a combination of systematic literature review and a case study in Honduras, the study identifies 13 critical decisions farmers make throughout their crop cycle and their respective triggers. These decisions were grouped into three clusters (production, household, and environmental) and classified into lead-time categories (operational, tactical, and strategic). Findings reveal that farmers base their decisions regarding future climate expectations on their traditional knowledge, religious dates, and memories of recent past seasons' rainfall patterns, and that one of the most significant factors influencing farmers' decisions is food security shortages resulting from extreme events. For example, recent mid-summer droughts have led farmers to prioritize sowing beans over maize in the Primera season, while during the Postrera season, they face challenges due to excess rainfall and the hurricane season. We conclude that the mind map tool developed in this paper provides an effective and appropriate method and that the variation in farmers' decision-making complexity across systems and landscapes presents a significant opportunity to design mind maps that span multiple timescales, facilitating the exploration of decision spaces. Farmers actively seek tailored weather and climate information while still valuing their existing experience and local knowledge, emphasizing the importance of integrating these elements into the development of climate services.

Sea-Level Rise in Pakistan: Recommendations for Strengthening Evidence-Based Coastal Decision-Making

Pakistan is vulnerable to a range of climate hazards, including sea-level rise. The Indus Delta region, situated in the coastal Sindh province, is particularly at risk of sea-level rise due to low-lying land and fragile ecosystems. In this article, expertise is drawn together from the newly established Pakistan Sea-Level Working Group, consisting of policy experts, scientists, and practitioners, to provide recommendations for future research, investment, and coastal risk management. An assessment of the current scientific understanding of sea-level change and coastal climate risks in Pakistan highlights an urgent need to improve the availability and access to sea-level data and other coastal measurements. In addition, reflecting on the policy environment and the enablers needed to facilitate effective responses to future sea-level change, recommendations are made to integrate coastal climate services into the National Adaptation Plan and develop a National Framework for Climate Services. Such a framework, alongside collaboration, co-production, and capacity development, could help support required improvements in coastal observations and monitoring and continuously deliver useful, usable, and accessible sea-level information for use by practitioners and decision-makers.

ThIRST: Targeted IRrigation Support Tool for sustainable coffee production

The Central Highlands of Vietnam is an important Robusta coffee growing region. However, the region is facing climate change impacts from rising temperatures and irregular rainfall, while Vietnamese coffee farmers predominantly rely on irrigation from heavily depleted aquifers. To continue productive and sustainable growth, this system requires an innovative approach to meet this hydrological challenge. Here we propose a user-friendly tool, which aims to support coffee farmers’ irrigation decisions, through the Targeted Irrigation Support Tool or ThIRST. ThIRST combines seasonal forecasts, on-farm metrics, and farmer’s expertise. The research comprises baseline (n = 400) and endline (n = 237) surveys of coffee farmers in Đắk Lắk and Lâm Đồng Provinces. Through the surveys, farmers’ irrigation needs and the applicability of the tool are evaluated. Despite low smartphone usage for farming advisory, the results show the tool allows coffee farmers to continually achieve water-use efficiency and adapt to climate variability. Involving farmers in the design, production and evaluation of climate services can improve the trust and uptake of agro-advisories and the way this information is communicated.

Costs and benefits of climate services for heat-health adaptation in Europe

Abstract Background Climate services for health aim to support informed decision-making and enable early action and preparedness. More knowledge is still needed regarding the costs and benefits of climate services, as well as effectiveness, and technical, structural, and societal barriers and facilitators to implementation and use. Aim To map the evidence on the economic assessment and use of climate services for health in reducing heat-associated mortality and morbidity and explore the societal impact of climate services, particularly in Europe. Methods We focus on two methods in this study: 1) a scoping review of literature on the economic assessment and health benefit of climate services 2) a set of interviews with climate service developers and providers in Europe to understand further technical and societal aspects as well as evaluation of such services. Findings From the scoping review, a total of 27 peer-reviewed articles all presenting heat early warning systems (HEWS) that work on a weather timescale were identified. The results from economic assessment studies suggested HEWS can produce health benefits greater than the operational cost, even during future climate change scenarios. While most of the studies assessing health outcomes have suggested that HEWS can help in reducing heat-related mortality and morbidity, some concluded no significant impact and some suggested increased healthcare services utilization after implementation of HEWS. The findings from the six interviews conducted across Europe identifies barriers for climate service development and implementation such as insufficient financing and cultural differences between climate and health professionals. Conclusions Our results find limited evidence on the economic assessment of climate services, gap in knowledge regarding health benefits from climate services using seasonal/sub-seasonal and long-term climate information and several barriers to making these services useful for end-users.

6.E. Workshop: Evaluating progress in adaptation in the European public health sector

Abstract Most national climate adaptation plans and strategies mention risks to human health. However, this is not often translated to specific policies, measures or targets to reduce these risks. The ENBEL project, funded by the European Commission under the H2020 program LC-CLA-22-2020, aims to support European policy making on climate change and health. In this workshop we present the results of recent research on the implementation of adaptation measures in Europe and review the evidence needs of EU, national and international decision makers. The workshop aims to support evidence translation for adaptation that prioritises health protection and equity. The workshop will include presentations on stakeholder mapping and interviews with key decion makers, as well as a comparison of current policies in health adaptation. We review the recent European policies on COIVID recovery and evaluate whether these will benefit adaptatoin. Economic evaluations are important for decision making and we review economic assessments for local climate action and for climate services for health. Key messages • Public health professionals can support adaptation actions through intersectoral working. • Post-COVID recovery is missed opportunity to improve adaptation in Europe.

Homogenous Climatic Regions for Targeting Green Water Management Technologies in the Abbay Basin, Ethiopia

Spatiotemporal climate variability is a leading environmental constraint to the rain-fed agricultural productivity and food security of communities in the Abbay basin and elsewhere in Ethiopia. The previous one-size-fits-all approach to soil and water management technology targeting did not effectively address climate-induced risks to rain-fed agriculture. This study, therefore, delineates homogenous climatic regions and identifies climate-induced risks to rain-fed agriculture that are important to guide decisions and the selection of site-specific technologies for green water management in the Abbay basin. The k-means spatial clustering method was employed to identify homogenous climatic regions in the study area, while the Elbow method was used to determine an optimal number of climate clusters. The k-means clustering used the Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) daily rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures, and other derived climate variables that include daily rainfall amount, length of growing period (LGP), rainfall onset and cessation dates, rainfall intensity, temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil moisture, and AsterDEM to define climate regions. Accordingly, 12 climate clusters or regions were identified and mapped for the basin. Clustering a given geographic region into homogenous climate classes is useful to accurately identify and target locally relevant green water management technologies to effectively address local-scale climate-induced risks. This study also provided a methodological framework that can be used in the other river basins of Ethiopia and, indeed, elsewhere.

Next-generation climate services, regional to local scale

Next-generation climate services, regional to local scale Here, we discover how Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) develops next-generation climate services from the regional to local scale. The EU aims to transform 150 European regions and cities into sustainable and climate-resilient areas by 2030. Many extreme events across the globe in the past years demonstrate the impacts of climate change across sectors, but especially at the local level. Hence, regional and local city officials are challenged with a pressing need to identify risks, plan, and implement efficient adaptation measures. To identify future exposure, vulnerability and plan appropriate measures, climate data (including climate model and observational data) needs to be combined with socio- economic and the respective local geographical data (e.g., on topography or land use).

The missing links in climate services for health and heat-health services: Examining climate-heat services in peri-urban districts in South Africa

Climate services for health can facilitate health resilience and adaptation to climate change, particularly if they are well-calibrated to promote wellness and save lives. In this study, the status of climate services for health in South Africa’s Agincourt sub-district, Mpumalanga province, was assessed. A qualitative case study methodology encompassing multiple methods of data collection was used. The results show that climate services for health in the Agincourt sub-district, albeit essential, are fragmented and underdeveloped. Scientifically informed heat-health services are non-existent. Notwithsatnding this gap, healthcare and allied professionals are aware of the importance of climate services for health. The main barrier to climate services delivery is the paucity of interagency coordination; for example, coordination to plan and respond to climate-health information between the South African Weather Services and the Departments of Health and Education is lacking. Inclusive climate services for health are essential for positive prevention and treatment outcomes. Future studies must provide an investment case for climate services for health, demonstrating the benefits of acting and the costs of inaction.

РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ ПРОЕКТА МОДЕРНИЗАЦИИ ГИДРОМЕТЕОРОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО ОБСЛУЖИВАНИЯ В ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ АЗИИ В 2012-2023 ГГ

Central Asia consists of five former Soviet republics: the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and the Republic of Tajikistan. The territory of Central Asia stretches from the Caspian Sea in the west to China in the east, and from central Siberia in the north to Afghanistan and Iran in the south. Despite having an area the size of Western Europe, Central Asia is home to only 57 million people. In 2008, the population of Central Asia accounted for 14% of the population of the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, while the gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to only 5.0% of the GDP of the ECA region. The Central Asia Hydrometeorological Services Modernization Project (CA HMSMP) played a key role in enhancing cooperation, improving information sharing, and capacity building among the five National Hydrometeorological Services (NHMS) in Central Asia. The project has made significant progress in strengthening regional cooperation and institutional capacity of the four participating NHMSs. Through joint capacity building activities, including training of forecasters, NHMS specialists have established operational relationships for cooperation, mutual support, and recognition of regional and national benefits of data sharing. A high-level platform for the countries of the region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) was also established to work closely together, build consensus on promising improvements, and harmonize practical aspects of weather, climate, and hydrological information services to be managed at the regional level.

Emerging phylogeographic perspective on the toxigenic diatom genus Pseudo-nitzschia in coastal northern European waters and gateways to eastern Arctic seas: Causes, ecological consequences and socio-economic impacts

The diatom Pseudo-nitzschia H. Peragallo is perhaps the most intensively researched genus of marine pennate diatoms, with respect to species diversity, life history strategies, toxigenicity, and biogeographical distribution. The global magnitude and consequences of harmful algal blooms (HABs) of Pseudo-nitzschia are particularly significant because of the high socioeconomic impacts and environmental and human health risks associated with the production of the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA) among populations of many (although not all) species. This has led to enhanced monitoring and mitigation strategies for toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms and their toxins in recent years. Nevertheless, human adaptive actions based on future scenarios of bloom dynamics and proposed shifts in biogeographical distribution under climate-change regimes have not been implemented on a regional scale. In the CoCliME (Co-development of climate services for adaptation to changing marine ecosystems) program these issues were addressed with respect to past, current and anticipated future status of key HAB genera such as Pseudo-nitzschia and expected benefits of enhanced monitoring. Data on the distribution and frequency of Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in relation to DA occurrence and associated amnesic shellfish toxin (AST) events were evaluated in a contemporary and historical context over the past several decades from key northern CoCliME Case Study areas. The regional studies comprised the greater North Sea and adjacent Kattegat-Skagerrak and Norwegian Sea, eastern North Atlantic marginal seas and Arctic gateways, and the Baltic Sea. The first evidence of possible biogeographical expansion of Pseudo-nitzschia taxa into frontier eastern Arctic gateways was provided from DNA barcoding signatures. Key climate change indicators, such as salinity, temperature, and water-column stratification were identified as drivers of upwelling and advection related to the distribution of regional Pseudo-nitzschia blooms. The possible influence of changing variables on bloom dynamics, magnitude, frequency and spatial and temporal distribution were interpreted in the context of regional ocean climate models. These climate change indicators may play key roles in selecting for the occurrence and diversity of Pseudo-nitzschia species within the broader microeukaryote communities. Shifts to higher temperature and lower salinity regimes predicted for the southern North Sea indicate the potential for high-magnitude Pseudo-nitzschia blooms, currently absent from this area. Ecological and socioeconomic impacts of Pseudo-nitzschia blooms are evaluated with reference to effects on fisheries and mariculture resources and coastal ecosystem function. Where feasible, effective adaptation strategies are proposed herein as emerging climate services for the northern CoCLiME region.