Serial Crime Research Articles

Investigating spatial behaviour: an application of space analysis to criminal investigations

Geographical profiling (GP) is an information management system and investigative methodology that evaluates the locations of connected serial crimes to determine the most probable area of offender residence. It can be applied in cases of serial murder, rape, arson, robbery and bombings. Specifically, this investigative methodology uses the crimerelated scenes of a criminal series to determine the area in which the offender might live or conducts relevant activities (e.g. work and exercise). The idea underlying GP is that the offender tends to use familiar places and his own spatial representations to carry out his criminal activities. This methodology is often applied on serial crimes such as rapes, homicides and fire setters, but also on single crimes involving more than a place and it is based on the connection between the geographic information, the knowledge of the victim and the crime frame. The analyst uses tools and digital representations visualised as maps in which it is attempt to indicate where it is more probable that the offender lives and can be used by investigators to reduce the searching areas, select investigative strategies such as assign priority on a list of suspects, implement a search based on addresses, patrolling, etc. The general aim is to reconstruct the offender’s use of his environment to study the distance variable in its explorative strategies and mobility. According to Brantingham and Brantingham (1981, 1984), an offender is not likely to commit an offence very near to the home base, creating a buffer zone in which the crime is less likely to be committed. Levine (2004) hypothesised that after the buffer zone, there will be an area on which committing a crime has highest probability and then, according to a distance decay function, after this zone the number of offence trips would decrease. According to Rossmo (2000), the existence of a buffer zone is considered as a product of an increased risk of being identified or being noticed by the police conducting investigation, if an offence is committed too close to the home of the offender. The concept of distance decay can be used to investigate the origin location of a serial offender based on offence location on a series (Lowe and Moryadas 1975). A number of study on journey to crime (JTC) distances and variables affecting them have been conducted to confirm the existence of the distance decay function (Rossmo 1993; Warren et al. 1995). From an investigative perspective, the concept of distance decay is used to estimate the origin location of a serial offender based on offence locations in a series. In order to predict the home location of an offender statistically, the origin of the constructed model is placed on the location of the crime site and probability of the offender’s residential location is predicted in all directions of the geographic plane. As the model is continuous, this will produce a density surface surrounding the crime incident. The density accumulation from each incident is then combined with those of the other incidents producing a surface of density for an area (Levine 2004). CrimeStat programme’s JTC module, for example, generates statistical predictions concerning the likelihood of any given location to include the home base of the offender. This prediction is visualised as a grid with calculated density values for each grid cell centroid. This grid cell density accumulations can then be exported to surface mapping programs, which transform them visually as surfaces, contour maps or similar. At present, there are three L. P. Luini (&) S. Mastroberardino F. S. Marucci Department of Psychology, ‘‘La Sapienza’’ University of Rome, Via dei Marsi 78, 00185 Rome, Italy e-mail: lorenzopluini@hotmail.it

Psychological Profiling: Investigative Implications from Crime Scene Analysis

Psychological profiling-often referred to as behavioral, criminal or investigative profiling-began informally in the late 1940s when members of law enforcement were unable to make an arrest involving serial crime. This presentation describes the six stages of profiling, as well as other important aspects such as victim and offender characteristics, escalation, time and location factors, modus operandi and signature, and staging. The organized vs. disorganized dichotomy is discussed as well as how personality is an intervening variable and how crime scene analysis reveals aspects of personality. But for profiling to gain general scientific acceptability, a higher level of empirical validation and general scientific acceptance of this technique will be necessary.

Computers spot criminals' bad behaviour

Software that use “linkage analysis” to connect serial crimes by the behaviour of their perpetrator could help police catch the bad guys

Efficacy of standard deviational ellipses in the application of criminal geographic profiling

AbstractThe premise for this study is that the physical and cultural landscape has a deterministic effect on the location and distribution of serial crime. As a consequence, the distribution of linked crime scenes should exhibit a shape and orientation that is consistent with the underlying landscape. Geographic Profiling models that are able to account for these effects will provide more accurate results than those models that do not. Utilizing basic geographic principles of central tendency and spatial diffusion, this research first analyzed the output of circular and elliptical profile models generated for 30 serial burglaries (n = 164) and 67 serial robberies (n = 370) in Baltimore, Maryland between 1994 and 1997. A comparative analysis of the model output reveals that the Standard Deviational Ellipse is significantly (p = 0.000) better able to predict the home location of a serial offender than profiles generated from circles. Next, the relationship between the orientation of elliptical profiles and the mean linear orientation of the corresponding landscape was assessed to reveal a moderate but significant correlation (r = 0.511, p < 0.001). Together, these findings demonstrate that landscape does impact the locations of crime, and is a measurable parameter that can improve the efficacy of geographic profiling. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evidence of Primary, Secondary, and Collateral Paraphilias Left at Serial Murder and Sex Offender Crime Scenes

This paper is a descriptive review of the phenomenon of paraphilias, the relationship of possessing multiple paraphilias with the commission of sexual crimes and serial murder and the recognition of evidence related to sexual crimes committed by offenders with paraphilias. Several case studies are presented and the manifestations of multiple paraphilias, such as those experienced by Jeffrey Dahmer, Albert Fish, and others, are conceptualized and divided into three types: (i) replacement--no overlap; (ii) replacement with overlap; and (iii) cumulative. The categories are further divided into primary, secondary, and collateral paraphilias. Primary and secondary paraphilias are mutually exclusive and one does not build upon the other. Collateral paraphilias may serve to enhance the overall sexual experience of the primary and secondary paraphilias, including the sexualization of props or weapons. Implications for criminalists and criminal investigators are explained, particularly the value in discerning hidden as well as salient evidence of paraphilic behaviors left at crime scenes.

Special Issue of the Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling on Offender Consistency & Linking Serial Crime

Special Issue of the Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling on Offender Consistency & Linking Serial Crime

From marine ecology to crime analysis: Improving the detection of serial sexual offences using a taxonomic similarity measure

AbstractJaccard has been the choice similarity metric in ecology and forensic psychology for comparison of sites or offences, by species or behaviour. This paper applies a more powerful hierarchical measure—taxonomic similarity (Δs), recently developed in marine ecology—to the task of behaviourally linking serial crime. Forensic case linkage attempts to identify behaviourally similar offences committed by the same unknown perpetrator (called linked offences). Δs considers progressively higher‐level taxa, such that two sites show some similarity even without shared species. We apply this index by analysing 55 specific offence behaviours classified hierarchically. The behaviours are taken from 16 sexual offences by seven juveniles where each offender committed two or more offences. We demonstrate that both Jaccard and Δs show linked offences to be significantly more similar than unlinked offences. With up to 20% of the specific behaviours removed in simulations, Δs is equally or more effective at distinguishing linked offences than where Jaccard uses a full data set. Moreover, Δs retains significant difference between linked and unlinked pairs, with up to 50% of the specific behaviours removed. As police decision‐making often depends upon incomplete data, Δs has clear advantages and its application may extend to other crime types. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Relationship Between Serial Murder and the American Tourism Industry

Serial murder is a serious national problem, with substantial implications for tourism. In general, serial murder depresses business activity, with one important partial exceptiontourism. The present study analyzes the relationship between serial killing and public travel and tourism associated with such criminal activity. It was found that serial murder is a quantitatively significant criminal conduct, and it is increasing. The general pattern of public response to serial murder includes reduced shopping and tourism behavior, due to fear. However, serial murder also stimulates public interest in visiting serial crime sites, and numerous cases of such travel and tourism have been caused by serial murder, as documented in the present study. Typical serial murder tourism activity includes travel, sightseeing, entertainment, dining, refreshments, lodging, photo-opportunities, and the acquisition of souvenirs. Wound culture theory may explain this type of tourist behavior, which falls within the emerging genre of thanatourism.

Book Section: Essay and Review: Serial Crime: Theoretical and Practical Issues in Behavioral Profiling

Book Section: Essay and Review: Serial Crime: Theoretical and Practical Issues in Behavioral Profiling

Human versus machine: a comparison of the accuracy of geographic profiling methods

The current article addresses the continuing debate as to the accuracy of geographic profiling methods in predicting the location of serial crime offenders. In particular, the research addresses whether spatial distribution methods and humans using simple heuristics are as accurate at predicting home locations of offenders as more complex algorithm-based methods such as RIGEL, DRAGNET, and Crimestat. Using a random sample of solved serial crimes, the research found that predictions by human judges and spatial distribution methods performed equally as well as more complex algorithm-based methods. In addition to a discussion of findings, implications for police investigations and researchers are included. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Improving police decision making: general principles and practical applications of receiver operating characteristic analysis

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is a widely used and accepted method for improving decision making performance across a range of diagnostic settings. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate how ROC analysis can be used to improve the quality of decisions made routinely in a policing context. To begin, I discuss the general principles underlying the ROC approach and demonstrate how one can conduct the analysis. Several practical applications of ROC analysis are then presented by drawing on a number of policing tasks where the procedure has been used already (bite mark identification and linking serial crimes) or where it could be used in the future (statement validity assessment and determining the veracity of suicide notes). I conclude by considering briefly some of the potential difficulties that may be encountered when using ROC analysis in the policing context and offer some possible solutions to these problems. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Le tueur en série

The emergence of the concept of “serial killer” and the individualization of a comprehensive definition were lengthy and difficult, during the 20th century. Many uncertainties still remain nowadays, when considering their mobiles, the operational modalities of crimes’ perpetration as well as the psychological or psychopathological motivations of the killers. This article presents several aspects of the clinical picture of serial crimes, which are discussed, considering their pathological or non-pathological aspects. Patients and methods. – A review of available literature on the topic is presented and analyzed, in order to elaborate a psychopathological study of the serial killers. The authors also present six clinical vignettes of French criminals, who committed 17 murders and at least five murderous attempts. The cases are described through a brief summary of their personal history, their criminal course and, for some of them, through their psychiatric journey. The psychopathological analysis of their murderous dynamics reveals a pathological narcissism, feelings of omnipotence, heroïzation and complex relations with psychotic, perverse-narcissistic traits and psychopathic, anti-social behaviours. Serial murders could be viewed as acts of omnipotence with a defensive function, against the risk of psychotic destructuration. The concept of narcissistic perversion could hence with serial killers, be illustrated in all its most dramatic and caricatural features.

Case based reasoning in criminal intelligence using forensic case data.

A model that is based on the knowledge of experienced investigators in the analysis of serial crime is suggested to bridge a gap between technology and methodology. Its purpose is to provide a solid methodology for the analysis of serial crimes that supports decision making in the deployment of resources, either by guiding proactive policing operations or helping the investigative process. Formalisation has helped to derive a computerised system that efficiently supports the reasoning processes in the analysis of serial crime. This novel approach fully integrates forensic science data.

A Further Assessment of "Circle Theory" for Geographic Psychological Profiling

The Circle theory of environmental range (Canter & Larkin, 1993) has demonstrated utility for the analysis of the spatial distribution of serial rape and arson offences, but the theory's applicability to the crime of multiple burglary is more equivocal. The present study analysed the spatial distribution of 58 multiple burglary cases that had occurred in four Australian rural towns. The marauder pattern of offence that had been found to accommodate most cases of serial rape and arson was no more likely than a commuter pattern to characterise multiple burglaries. Further, among those cases that showed a marauder pattern the circle theory provided only a relatively vague indication of the location of the offender's home base. No correlates of offence pattern were identified. The utility of the circle theory for geographic psychological profiling in cases of multiple burglary therefore remains to be demonstrated. The validity of the theory in this context also was queried. Directional vector analyses of the data suggested that multiple burglaries tend to lie in a narrow corridor relative to the offender's home base, whereas an assumption of the circle theory implies that these vectors will radiate in every direction from the home base. Crime investigators therefore should be discriminating in their application of the circle theory to an actual case of serial crime.

A Further Assessment of “Circle Theory” for Geographic Psychological Profiling

The Circle theory of environmental range (Canter & Larkin, 1993) has demonstrated utility for the analysis of the spatial distribution of serial rape and arson offences, but the theory's applicability to the crime of multiple burglary is more equivocal. The present study analysed the spatial distribution of 58 multiple burglary cases that had occurred in four Australian rural towns. The marauder pattern of offence that had been found to accommodate most cases of serial rape and arson was no more likely than a commuter pattern to characterise multiple burglaries. Further, among those cases that showed a marauder pattern the circle theory provided only a relatively vague indication of the location of the offender's home base. No correlates of offence pattern were identified. The utility of the circle theory for geographic psychological profiling in cases of multiple burglary therefore remains to be demonstrated. The validity of the theory in this context also was queried. Directional vector analyses of the data suggested that multiple burglaries tend to lie in a narrow corridor relative to the offender's home base, whereas an assumption of the circle theory implies that these vectors will radiate in every direction from the home base. Crime investigators therefore should be discriminating in their application of the circle theory to an actual case of serial crime.

Geographical Analysis and Serial Crime Investigation: A Case Study of Armed Robbery in Phoenix, Arizona

Following a series of armed robberies in Phoenix, Arizona, crime analysts assisted robbery investigators by providing predictions of where future crimes would occur and by determining where the offenders were likely to live. These assessments were based upon modelling offender behaviour within a geographical information system. The methodology was able to identify a prioritised number of future targets and a location for the offenders in relatively restricted geographical areas to support the ongoing investigation. While the robberies remain unsolved, geographical analysis proved to be useful both operationally for investigators and in obtaining support for the use of crime analysis in subsequent investigations. Practical problems such as lack of resources, poor communication with other jurisdictions and data access limitations have also begun to be addressed. It is concluded that further research on offender geographical behaviour is required in order to develop comprehensive tools for routine use by analysts and investigators.

Review of: Geographic Profiling

Abstract Dr. Rossmo, a criminologist and a police officer has formulated a procedure that has been titled “geographic profiling” which is explained and illustrated in this relatively easy-to-follow book. A seasoned specialist in law enforcement, Dr. Rossmo has combined his experiences as a police officer with his education in criminology to offer an interesting formula intended to facilitate the process of investigating particularly serial crimes. The book's 12 chapters are enhanced by a glossary and lengthy bibliography. Criminal behavioral demography occupies nine of the chapters with one devoted to “geographic profiling,” another to applications and a final concluding chapter. The reader will find a preponderance of descriptive criminology and an relative absence of criminal psycho dynamics. This is not a work focusing on causality or etiology of criminal behavior. Rather, the author utilizes characteristics similar to diagnostic symptoms, a procedure that lends itself to the formula proposed by Dr. Rossmo. At the center of his model is computer analysis of variables associated with crime scene locations ideally resulting in the identification and apprehension of the perpetrator.

Predicting Serial Killers' Home Base Using a Decision Support System

The effectiveness of a geographical decision support tool (Dragnet) forlocating the base of serial offenders was compared across 570 modelscomprised of a range of negative exponential functions, buffer zonecomponents, and normalization parameters. The models were applied to thebody disposal locations within each series for 70 U.S. serial killers. Twonormalization parameters were compared for all functions. The test ofeffectiveness was a specifically defined measure of search cost. Whenapplied to the Dragnet predictions it was found that the specially developednormalization parameter (QRange) produced the optimal search costs. Theoptimal search cost was also found to be for a function that did not includeany buffer zone. The optimal, average search cost across the whole samplewas 11% of the defined search area. Fifty-one percent of the offendersresided in the first 5% of the search area, with 87% in the first 25%. Allresided in the total defined search area. These results support thepotential for operational tools using such procedures as well ascontributing to our understanding of criminal's geographicalbehavior. The applicability to other forms of serial crime is considered.

The psychological profile of serial offenders and a redefinition of the misnomer of serial crime

This article explores the possibility that a generalised profile of serial offenders may contribute to the conceptualisation of serial crime. The latter has become immersed in a debate over the minimum number of victims that should be set as the defining criterion. There are several conceptual and practical problems in seeking to define serial crime in terms of minimum victim numbers, and the possibility is raised that a serial criminal might be identified as such after only one offence has been committed. In this light the term “serial crime” is seen as a misnomer. A redefinition of the term is pursued by first identifying the psychological mechanisms characteristic of serial offenders; in this context specific attention is given to the personality characteristics of psychopathy, narcissism, sadism, paraphilic tendencies, fantasy proneness or dissociative tendencies, and compulsiveness. A general definition of serial crime then is proposed, focusing on the psychology of the serial offender regardless of the particular offence mode. As a result of this analysis serial murder, serial rape, and serial arson can be described in terms of specific behaviours evidenced in the crime scene and the style of victimisation; these descriptions may be used to classify serial offenders. Finally, the proposed definition of serial crime is applied to the question, “Can women be serial criminals?”.

Crime Scene and Distance Correlates of Serial Rape

This study, derived from a sample of 108 serial rapists (rapes=565), examines the relationship between demographic, crime scene, and criminal history variables and the distance traveled by serial rapists in order to offend. The pattern of offenses perpetrated by each of the 108 serial offenders as it relates to his place of residence is also analyzed in terms of known characteristics of the offender and his offenses. The theoretical focus of the study integrates premises derived from criminal investigative analysis, environmental criminology, ethnographic geography, journey to crime research, and criminal geographic targeting to explore the cognitive symmetry between the “how” and the “where” of serial sexual offenses. These components or dimensions of serial crime are explored in an attempt to aid law enforcement in their investigation of hard-to-solve serial crimes.