Sequential Monte Carlo Scheme Research Articles

Application of chronological load modeling in composite reliability worth evaluation

This work describes the application of pseudo-sequential Monte Carlo simulation to the composite generation—transmission reliability evaluation of the Brazilian South-Southeast system using chronological load modeling. The resulting reliability indices, in particular the loss of load cost (LOLC), were compared with those produced by a sequential Monte Carlo scheme with chronological load model and by a non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation scheme using a multistate Markov load model. It is shown that the pseudo-sequential approach produced the same indices as the sequential approach, with a substantial reduction of computational effort. Those results were in turn quite different from the non-sequential Monte Carlo scheme, thus confirming the importance of an accurate load modeling.