Sentinel General Practitioners Research Articles

Inclusion of Long Covid patients in the care trajectory post-Covid-19: evidence from Belgium

Abstract Background Evidence suggests that 10-30% of COVID-19 infected people develop persistent symptoms that can be diagnosed as Long Covid. Most Long Covid cases are in patients with a mild acute COVID-19 infection and are mainly treated in primary health care. In July 2022, a care trajectory (CT) post-Covid-19 was launched in Belgium, in which Long Covid patients can benefit from reimbursement of treatment costs when consulting health professionals in primary health care for their rehabilitation. Patients are included in this CT mainly through their general practitioner (GP) and depending on patients’ care needs, treatment is organized in a monodisciplinary or multidisciplinary way. Methods A population-based study on data collected by the Belgian network of Sentinel General Practitioners (SGP) on all Long Covid patients consulting their GP during March-December 2023. Information on inclusion in the CT post-Covid-19 was also registered. Descriptive statistics were performed. Results End of 2023 in Belgium, GPs initiated the CT post-Covid-19 for more than 1000 patients, this mainly for monodisciplinary treatment, less than 10% of included patients received multidisciplinary follow-up. By the SGP, among the registered Long Covid sufferers (N = 14), a total of six cases were included in the CT post-Covid-19. Of these cases, the majority were female, of older age, higher educated and had one or two chronic conditions. Most had a mild or moderate prior COVID-19 infection and all were vaccinated multiple times against COVID-19. Symptoms lasted one year or more for 83.3% of included patients. Treatment focused mainly on self-management, energy management and physical exercise programs, mainly in collaboration with physiotherapists. Conclusions This study yields recent data on patients included in the CT post-COVID-19 in primary care in Belgium. It is important to focus on guidance, follow-up and rehabilitation of Long Covid sufferers by healthcare professionals in Belgium. Key messages • Long Covid patients included in the care trajectory post-Covid-19 in Belgium experience years of debilitating symptoms after their prior COVID-19 infection. • The establishment of the care trajectory post-Covid-19 for Long Covid patients in primary care since July 2022 stimulated collaboration between care givers in Belgian primary health care.

Fall risk factors and prevention among older adults in primary care in Belgium, 2019-2021

Abstract Background Falls are a major public health problem and ageing populations further increase the burden of fall-induced injuries. Falling among older persons is a multifactorial health condition needing multifactorial care. General practitioners (GPs) are well placed to implement a multifactorial management. A surveillance study of accidental falls studied characteristics of falls, risk groups and fall risk factors as well as fall prevention by GPs. Methods A 3-year retrospective population-based study by the Belgian network of Sentinel General Practitioners (SGP) on all patients aged ≥ 65 years consulting their GP for new fall-related injuries. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize falls, fallers, fall risks and preventive measures. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with a multifactorial fall risk profile. Results During 2019-21, 1138 accidental falls were registered. Medical and/or nursing intervention was required for 24% and 22% had a severe injury. During consult, 30% was referred to hospital. 61% of patients showed at least one of the four most prevalent fall risks, i.e. deficits of mobility or balance, polypharmacy, cognitive impairment or psychotropic medication. A multifactorial fall risk profile was observed in 45% of fallers and was associated with recurrent falling (p < 0.001), fall location (p < 0.05), activity when falling (p < 0.01) and pandemic year 2020 (p < 0.05). Addressing surrounding and walking problems were the most frequently delivered preventive measures. For 28% of patients, other primary care providers (mainly nurse and physiotherapist) were involved in preventive care. Conclusions This study highlights the importance of identifying fall risk factors among fallers in primary care. Preventive fall measures, taken in about one in four general practice patients in collaboration with other healthcare providers, are crucial for preventing accidental falls in older persons in Belgium. Key messages • A multifactorial management of fall risk factors by GPs is crucial for preventing accidental falls in older primary care patients. • Strengthening collaboration between primary healthcare professionals is needed for improving fall prevention in Belgium.

Sexually transmitted infections in Belgian general practices: a nationwide continuing surveillance study, data from 2015 to 2020.

The current study aims at describing sexually transmitted infections (STI) surveillance data collected from 2015 to 2020 as well as investigating patients' characteristics and risk factors in the sample population. Reported STI cases are continuously increasing in Europe. In Belgium, 94.1% of citizens have a regular general practitioner (GP) or are affiliated to a general practice. By using GPs for surveillance, STIs can be monitored in the general population. Between January 2015 and December 2020, the Sentinel General Practitioners (SGP) network retrospectively reported five STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, genital warts, herpes, and syphilis. In the SGP network database on STIs, participating GPs report on case-by-case basis through paper or online registration forms. We performed descriptive statistics, X2 test and logistic regression using SAS® 9.4. Multivariate multiple logistic regression was performed to investigate the relationship between STIs and patients' characteristics. During the study period, 1009 cases were reported, corresponding to an episode-based incidence estimated at 121 per 100,000 inhabitants. The majority of patients (59.8%) were men, and 83.6% were under age 30. Among female patients 92.7% had heterosexual contacts whereas 64.4% of male patients did. Women were more likely to be diagnosed with chlamydia (odds ratio [OR] 1.56; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-2.17) and herpes (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.04-2.86) than men.In this study, STI surveillance data were in agreement with literature. Continuous surveillance through the SGP network remains an important tool to obtain information about populations at risk and STI incidence in the general population.

Thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and haemorrhagic events following second dose with BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1: self-controlled case series analysis of the English national sentinel cohort.

Thrombosis associated with thrombocytopenia was a matter of concern post first and second doses of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 COVID-19 vaccines. Therefore, it is important to investigate the risk of thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and haemorrhagic events following a second dose of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 COVID-19 vaccines. We conducted a large-scale self-controlled case series analysis, using routine primary care data linked to hospital data, among 12.3 million individuals (16 years old and above) in England. We used the nationally representative Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) sentinel network database with baseline and risk periods between 8th December 2020 and 11th June 2022. We included individuals who received two vaccine (primary) doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and two vaccine doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines in our analyses. We carried out a self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis for each outcome using a conditional Poisson regression model with an offset for the length of risk period. We reported the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic (including arterial and venous events) and haemorrhagic events, in the period of 0-27 days after receiving a second dose of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 vaccines compared to the baseline period (14 or more days prior to first dose, 28 or more days after the second dose and the time between 28 or more days after the first and 14 or more days prior to the second dose). We adjusted for a range of potential confounders, including age, sex, comorbidities and deprivation. Between December 8, 2020 and February 11, 2022, 6,306,306 individuals were vaccinated with two doses of BNT162b2 and 6,046,785 individuals were vaccinated with two doses of ChAdOx1. Compared to the baseline, our analysis show no increased risk of venous thromboembolic events (VTE) for both BNT162b2 (IRR 0.71, 95% CI: 0.65-0.770) and ChAdOx1 (IRR 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84-0.98); and similarly there was no increased risk for cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) for both BNT162b2 (IRR 0.87, 95% CI: 0.41-1.85) and ChAdOx1 (IRR 1.73, 95% CI: 0.82-3.68). We additionally report no difference in IRR for pulmonary embolus, and deep vein thrombosis, thrombocytopenia, including idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP), and haemorrhagic events post second dose for both BNT162b2. Reassuringly, we found no associations between increased risk of thrombocytopenic, thromboembolic and haemorrhagic events post vaccination with second dose for either of these vaccines. Data and Connectivity: COVID-19 Vaccines Pharmacovigilance study.

The Sentiworld project: global mapping of sentinel surveillance networks in general practice

BackgroundSentinel networks composed of general practitioners (GPs) represent a powerful tool for epidemiologic surveillance and ad-hoc studies. Globalization necesitates greater international cooperation among sentinel networks. The aim of this study was to inventory GP sentinel networks involved in epidemiological surveillance on a global scale.MethodsGP sentinel surveillance networks were inventoried globally between July 2016 and December 2019. Each identified network was required to fill out an electronic descriptive survey for inclusion.ResultsA total of 148 networks were identified as potential surveillance networks in general practice and were contacted. Among them, 48 were included in the study. Geographically, 33 networks (68.8%) were located in Europe and 38 (79.2%) had national coverage. The number of GPs registered in these networks represented between 0.1 and 100% of the total number of GPs in the network’s country or region, with a median of 2.5%. All networks were involved in continuous epidemiologic surveillance and 47 (97.9%) monitored influenza-like illness. Data collection methods were paper-based forms (n = 26, 55.3%), electronic forms on a dedicated website (n = 18, 38.3%), electronic forms on a dedicated software program (n = 14, 29.8%), and direct extraction from electronic medical records (n = 14, 29.8%). Along with this study, a website has been created to share all data collected.ConclusionsThis study represents the first global geographic mapping of GP sentinel surveillance networks. By sharing this information, collaboration between networks will be easier, which can strengthen the quality of international epidemiologic surveillance. In the face of crises like that of COVID-19, this is more imperative than ever before.

Sexually Transmitted Infections surveillance among the patient population in Belgian general practice

Abstract Background In Europe, prevalence of Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) is continuously increasing. The Belgian public health institute ensures STI surveillance in general practices through the Sentinel General Practitioners (SGP) network. Between 2015 and 2020, the SGP reported cases for 5 STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis herpes and genital warts. The objective is the surveillance of STI in primary care. Methods General practitioners (GPs) report STI cases through the SGP network on a voluntary basis, using an online questionnaire. This questionnaire is developed in cooperation with STI experts, as well as a steering committee group composed of GPs and representatives of regional health agencies. Results In total 1009 cases were registered from 2015 until 2020 within the SGP network. 59.8% of patients consulting for STIs were men, of which 63.5% had exclusively heterosexual contacts and 24.8% are Men who have sex with Men (MSM). 91.8% of women had exclusively heterosexual contacts. Chlamydia was the most common STI (57.4%). Women are more likely to be diagnosed with chlamydia (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.1-2.2) and herpes (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.0-2.9) than men. Men represented most of the gonorrhoea (79.77%) and syphilis (86.7%) cases. Having bi- or homosexual contacts increases the likelihood of getting gonorrhoea (OR 3.3; 95% CI 2.1-5.1) and syphilis (OR 13.7; 95% CI 7.4-25.3). Incidence of Chlamydia is estimated at 68.81/100000, and incidence of gonorrhoea at 21.11/100000 over 6 years. Conclusions We observe a slight increase in chlamydia and gonorrhoea incidence in the Belgian population over the study period. MSM are at higher risk of STI and represent an overwhelming proportion of syphilis cases. Being a woman is associated with higher risk of acquiring chlamydia and herpes infection. We recommend continuing prevention and awareness campaigns targeting high risk groups. Key messages MSM and women remain high-risk populations regarding STIs among the patient population of general practitioners. Continuous STI surveillance is necessary to monitor STI related healthcare needs and adapt prevention programs.

Economic Crisis in Portugal: Trajectory of the Incidence of Depression and Correlation With Unemployment

Previous studies have found an increase in the incidence rate of depression between 2007 - 2013 in Portugal, with a positive correlation with the unemployment rate, namely, in men. So, it was hypothesized that this increase is related with the situation of economic crisis. This study aimed to investigate if the correlation between unemployment rates and the incidence of depression is maintained in the post-crisis period of economic recovery in Portugal (2016 - 2018). An ecological study was carried out, using data from the General Practitioners Sentinel Network concerning depression incidence (first episodes and relapses) and data from the National Statistics Institute on unemployment rates in the Portuguese population. The correlation coefficient was estimated using linear regression and the results were disaggregated by sex. Between 2016 and 2018, there was a consistent decrease in the incidence of depression in both sexes. During the 1995 - 2018 period, a positive correlation was observed between unemployment and depression, with a coefficient of 0.833 (p = 0.005) in males and of 0.742 (p = 0.022) in females. The reduction in the incidence of depression in both sexes observed between 2016 - 2018 corroborates a positive correlation between unemployment and depression in the Portuguese population, previously observed between 2007 - 2013. This study highlights the need to monitor the occurrence of mental illness in the Portuguese population, especially in moments of greatest social vulnerability in order to establish preventive measures, as a way to mitigate the impact of future economic crises.

Self-Sampling of Oropharyngeal Swabs Among Healthcare Workers for Molecular Detection of Respiratory Viruses: A Valuable Approach for Epidemiological Studies and Surveillance Programs.

This study aimed at assessing the validity of self-collected (self-sampled) oropharyngeal (OP) swabs among healthcare workers compared to those collected by trained sentinel general practitioners (GP-sampled) from individuals with influenza-like illness (ILI), to be implemented in epidemiological studies and/or surveillance programs of viral pathogens involved in community respiratory infections. In our study, OP swabs were collected from adults (>18 years) with ILI during the 2018–2019 influenza season. Two groups of samples were considered: group 1−131 self-sampled OP swabs collected by healthcare workers after being trained on the sampling procedure; group 2−131 GP-sampled OP swabs collected from outpatients by sentinel GPs operating within the Italian Influenza Surveillance Network. To assess swabbing quality, following RNA extraction, each sample was tested for the presence of the human ribonuclease P gene (RNP) by in-house real-time reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Samples with a cycle threshold (Ct) <35 were considered adequate for further virological analysis. Influenza viruses (IVs), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and rhinovirus (RV) genomes were detected by in-house real-time RT-PCR. All samples were positive to RNP detection with Ct <35. The mean Ct value was similar in the two groups (group 1 vs. group 2: 25.93 ± 2.22 vs. 25.46 ± 2.40; p = 0.10). IVs, RSV, and RV positivity rates were 26.7 vs. 52.7% (p < 0.01), 7.6 vs. 9.9% (p = 0.52), and 21.4 vs. 19.9% (p = 0.76), respectively. Self-sampled OP swabs resulted as valid as GP-sampled OP swabs for molecular detection of respiratory viruses. Self-swabbing can thus be a worthwhile strategy for sample collection to implement molecular surveillance of respiratory pathogens and carry out epidemiological studies, easily reaching a larger population size.

Who is most likely to be infected with SARS-CoV-2?

Despite the daily updates on number of cases, hospital admissions, and deaths around the world and the increasing number of hospital-based case series, some of the fundamental information about how severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spreads in the population and who is really at risk of both infection and severe consequences is still missing. In The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Simon de Lusignan and colleagues1 report on the characteristics of the first 3802 people tested for SARS-CoV-2 within the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) sentinel primary care surveillance network.

Effectiveness of the current and prior influenza vaccinations in Northern Spain, 2018–2019

BackgroundThe population targeted for influenza vaccination can be repeatedly vaccinated over successive seasons, and vaccines received in previous seasons may retain preventive effect. This study aims to estimate the effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccines received in the current and prior seasons in the 2018–2019 season. MethodsInfluenza-like illness patients attended by sentinel general practitioners or admitted to hospitals in Navarre, Spain, were tested for influenza. Vaccination status in the current and three prior seasons was obtained from the vaccination registry. The test-negative design was used to estimate the vaccine effectiveness. ResultsA total of 381 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases, 341 A(H3N2) cases and 1222 controls were analysed. As compared to individuals unvaccinated in the current and three prior seasons, the influenza vaccine effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 57% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 40%, 70%) for current season vaccination regardless of prior doses and 48% (95%CI: 14%, 68%) for vaccination in prior seasons but not in the current season. These estimates were 12% (95%CI: −23%, 37%) and 27% (95%CI: −22%, 56%), respectively, against influenza A(H3N2). Individuals vaccinated with the two A(H1N1)pdm09 strains in influenza vaccines since 2009, A/Michigan/45/2015 and A/California/07/2009, had higher protection (68%; 95%CI: 53%, 77%) than those vaccinated with A/Michigan/45/2015 only (29%, p = 0.020) or with A/California/07/2009 only (34%, p = 0.005). ConclusionThese results suggest moderate effectiveness of influenza vaccination against A(H1N1)pdm09 and low effectiveness against A(H3N2) influenza in the 2018–2019 season. Vaccination in prior seasons maintained a notable protective effect. Strains included in previous vaccines were as effective as the current vaccine strain, and both added their effects against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.

Antibiotic resistance of Escherichia coli isolated from uncomplicated UTI in general practice patients over a 10-year period

Recommendations of first choice antibiotic therapy need to be based on actual antibiotic susceptibility data. We determined the antibiotic susceptibility of E. coli in uncomplicated UTI among women and compared the results with 2004 and 2009. In 30 sentinel general practitioner practices of Nivel Primary Care database, urine samples were collected from women with symptoms of uncomplicated UTI. Patient characteristics, E. coli susceptibility, and ESBL production were analyzed. Six hundred eighty-nine urine samples were collected; E. coli was the most isolated uropathogen (83%). Antibiotic susceptibility was stable over time except for ciprofloxacin (96% in 2004, 97% in 2009, and 94% in 2014; P < 0.05). The susceptibility to co-amoxiclav was 88%, 87%, and 92% in 2004, 2009, and 2014, respectively. The prevalence of ESBL-producing E. coli increased from 0.1% in 2004 to 2.2% in 2014 (P < 0.05). Regional differences in antibiotic susceptibility for co-trimoxazole were found being the highest in the west (88%) and the lowest in the north (72%, P = 0.021). Ciprofloxacin susceptibility was related to antibiotic use in the past 3 months (97% no use versus 90% use, P = 0.002) and age > 70 years (P = 0.005). In 2014, prescription of fosfomycin increased compared to 2009 (14.3% versus 5.6%) at the expense of co-amoxiclav, co-trimoxazole, and fluoroquinolones (P < 0.05). The susceptibility percentages to most antimicrobial agents tested were stable over 10 years’ period although the prevalence of E. coli and ESBLs significantly increased. Performance of a survey with regular intervals is warranted.

Real-time prediction of influenza outbreaks in Belgium

Seasonal influenza is a worldwide public health concern. Forecasting its dynamics can improve the management of public health regulations, resources and infrastructure, and eventually reduce mortality and the costs induced by influenza-related absenteism. In Belgium, a network of Sentinel General Practitioners (SGPs) is in place for the early detection of the seasonal influenza epidemic. This surveillance network reports the weekly incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, which makes it possible to detect the epidemic onset, as well as other characteristics of the epidemic season. In this paper, we present an approach for predicting the weekly ILI incidence in real-time by resorting to a dynamically calibrated compartmental model, which furthermore takes into account the dynamics of other influenza seasons. In order to validate the proposed approach, we used data collected by the Belgian SGPs for the influenza seasons 2010–2016. In spite of the great variability among different epidemic seasons, providing weekly predictions makes it possible to capture variations in the ILI incidence. The confidence region becomes more representative of the epidemic behavior as ILI data from more seasons become available. Since the SIR model is then calibrated dynamically every week, the predicted ILI curve gets rapidly tuned to the dynamics of the ongoing season. The results show that the proposed method can be used to characterize the overall behavior of an epidemic.

Unsupervised extraction of epidemic syndromes from participatory influenza surveillance self-reported symptoms.

Seasonal influenza surveillance is usually carried out by sentinel general practitioners (GPs) who compile weekly reports based on the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) clinical cases observed among visited patients. This traditional practice for surveillance generally presents several issues, such as a delay of one week or more in releasing reports, population biases in the health-seeking behaviour, and the lack of a common definition of ILI case. On the other hand, the availability of novel data streams has recently led to the emergence of non-traditional approaches for disease surveillance that can alleviate these issues. In Europe, a participatory web-based surveillance system called Influenzanet represents a powerful tool for monitoring seasonal influenza epidemics thanks to aid of self-selected volunteers from the general population who monitor and report their health status through Internet-based surveys, thus allowing a real-time estimate of the level of influenza circulating in the population. In this work, we propose an unsupervised probabilistic framework that combines time series analysis of self-reported symptoms collected by the Influenzanet platforms and performs an algorithmic detection of groups of symptoms, called syndromes. The aim of this study is to show that participatory web-based surveillance systems are capable of detecting the temporal trends of influenza-like illness even without relying on a specific case definition. The methodology was applied to data collected by Influenzanet platforms over the course of six influenza seasons, from 2011-2012 to 2016-2017, with an average of 34,000 participants per season. Results show that our framework is capable of selecting temporal trends of syndromes that closely follow the ILI incidence rates reported by the traditional surveillance systems in the various countries (Pearson correlations ranging from 0.69 for Italy to 0.88 for the Netherlands, with the sole exception of Ireland with a correlation of 0.38). The proposed framework was able to forecast quite accurately the ILI trend of the forthcoming influenza season (2016-2017) based only on the available information of the previous years (2011-2016). Furthermore, to broaden the scope of our approach, we applied it both in a forecasting fashion to predict the ILI trend of the 2016-2017 influenza season (Pearson correlations ranging from 0.60 for Ireland and UK, and 0.85 for the Netherlands) and also to detect gastrointestinal syndrome in France (Pearson correlation of 0.66). The final result is a near-real-time flexible surveillance framework not constrained by any specific case definition and capable of capturing the heterogeneity in symptoms circulation during influenza epidemics in the various European countries.

Discussing suicidality with depressed patients: an observational study in Dutch sentinel general practices

ObjectivesThis paper aims to describe the degree to which general practitioners (GPs) explore suicidal behaviour among depressed patients in the Netherlands.DesignAn observational study of consultations between GPs and depressed patients.Setting39...

Uptake and effectiveness of influenza vaccine in those aged 65 years and older in the United Kingdom, influenza seasons 2010/11 to 2016/17.

BackgroundIn 2016/17, seasonal influenza vaccine was less effective in those aged 65 years and older in the United Kingdom. We describe the uptake, influenza-associated mortality and adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) in this age group over influenza seasons 2010/11–2016/17. Methods: Vaccine uptake in 2016/17 and five previous seasons were measured using a sentinel general practitioners cohort in England; the test-negative case-control design was used to estimate pooled aVE by subtype and age group against laboratory-confirmed influenza in primary care from 2010–2017. Results: Vaccine uptake was 64% in 65–69-year-olds, 74% in 70–74-year-olds and 80% in those aged 75 and older. Overall aVE was 32.5% (95% CI: 11.6 to 48.5); aVE by sub-type was 60.8% (95% CI: 33.9 to 76.7) and 50.0% (95% CI: 21.6 to 68.1) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, respectively, but only 5.6% (95% CI: - 39.2 to 35.9) against A(H3N2). Against all laboratory-confirmed influenza aVE was 45.2% (95% CI: 25.1 to 60.0) in 65–74 year olds; - 26.2% (95% CI: - 149.3 to 36.0) in 75–84 year olds and - 3.2% (95% CI: - 237.8 to 68.5) in those aged 85 years and older. Influenza-attributable mortality was highest in seasons dominated by A(H3N2). Conclusions: Vaccine uptake with non-adjuvanted, normal-dose vaccines remained high, with evidence of effectiveness against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B, though poor against A(H3N2), particularly in those aged 75 years and older. Forthcoming availability of newly licensed vaccines with wider use of antivirals can potentially further improve prevention and control of influenza in this group.

Linking temperature and humidity to influenza-like illness: A long-term time series study in the Netherlands, 1970–2016

Introduction Climatic parameters affect the survival and transmissibility of respiratory viruses causing influenza-like illness (ILI), like influenza, respiratory syncytial virus and rhinovirus. In temperate countries, ILI activity is inversely associated with humidity and temperature (which affect both the onset and size of ILI epidemics), and we hypothesized that changes in the average values of these climatic parameters (which have occurred in Europe in recent decades) may explain the declining trends in ILI incidence rates observed during the same period. Here, we tested this hypothesis by linking ILI and climatic time series in the Netherlands for the period 1970–2016. Methods Influenza-like illness surveillance data for the period 1970–2016 were obtained from the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research (NIVEL), which relies on a network of 60 sentinel general practitioners in 40 practices that are distributed throughout the Netherlands (including urban and rural areas) and cover approximately 0.7% of the Dutch population. Data on daily average absolute humidity (g/m3) and temperature for the weather station of De Bilt (which is located in the middle of the country) for the period 1970–2016 were obtained from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Linear regression models were used to assess whether the season average ILI incidence rate changed over time, and whether there was any change over time in daily average absolute humidity and temperature. We modelled the association between climate and ILI activity through negative binomial regression models with the weekly ILI count as dependent variable, absolute humidity (or temperature) with up to three lagged weeks as independent variables, and covariates accounting for contagiousness of ILI-causing agents and presence of immunity. Model-based predictions were made using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. The study was funded by Sanofi-Pasteur. Results The season average ILI incidence rate declined significantly (P Conclusions Changes in absolute humidity and temperature were able to satisfactorily explain the long-term trends of ILI incidence rate in the Netherlands during 1970–2016. Temperate countries should monitor climate-related change in infectious diseases epidemiology so that measures to mitigate their impact can be planned and implemented.

Establishing thresholds and parameters for pandemic influenza severity assessment, Australia.

ObjectiveTo implement the World Health Organization’s pandemic influenza severity assessment tool in Australia, using multiple sources of data to establish thresholds and measure influenza severity indicators.MethodsWe used data from four reliable sources: sentinel general practitioner surveillance, hospital surveillance, a public health hotline and an influenza-like illness survey system. We measured three influenza severity indicators (transmissibility, impact and disease seriousness) defined using pandemic influenza severity assessment guidelines. We used the moving epidemic method and a seriousness indicator-specific method to set thresholds for indicator parameters using 2012–2016 data. We then applied the thresholds to data from the 2017 influenza season.FindingsWe were able to measure and produce thresholds for each severity indicator. At least one laboratory-confirmed influenza parameter was used to measure each indicator. When thresholds were applied to the 2017 season, there was good agreement across all data sources in measuring activity for each indicator. The season was characterized as having high transmissibility and extraordinary impact. Seriousness was characterized as moderate overall and in all age groups except those aged ≥ 65 years for whom it was high. This matched the description of the season produced by the Australian national influenza surveillance committee, based on expert opinion and historical ranges.ConclusionThe pandemic influenza severity assessment and moving epidemic method provide a robust and flexible method to enable an evidence-based assessment of seasonal influenza severity across diverse data sources. This is useful for national assessment and will contribute to global monitoring and response to circulating influenza with pandemic potential.

Comparison of influenza vaccine effectiveness in preventing outpatient and inpatient influenza cases in older adults, northern Spain, 2010/11 to 2015/16.

IntroductionWe compared trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing outpatient and inpatient influenza cases in Navarre, Spain. Methods: During seasons 2010/11 to 2015/16, community-dwelling patients with influenza-like illness aged 50 years or older were tested for influenza when attended by sentinel general practitioners or admitted to hospitals. The test–negative design was used to estimate and compare the VE by healthcare setting. Results: We compared 1,242 laboratory-confirmed influenza cases (557 outpatient and 685 inpatient cases) and 1,641 test-negative controls. Influenza VE was 34% (95% confidence interval (CI): 6 to 54) in outpatients and 32% (95% CI: 15 to 45) in inpatients. VE in outpatients and inpatients was, respectively, 41% (95% CI: –1 to 65) and 36% (95% CI: 12 to 53) against A(H1N1)pdm09, 5% (95% CI: –58 to 43) and 22% (95% CI: –9 to 44) against A(H3N2), and 49% (95% CI, 6 to 73) and 37% (95% CI: 2 to 59) against influenza B. Trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine was not associated with a different probability of hospitalisation among influenza cases, apart from a 54% (95% CI: 10 to 76) reduction in hospitalisation of influenza A(H3N2) cases. Conclusions: On average, influenza VE was moderate and similar in preventing outpatient and inpatient influenza cases over six influenza seasons in patients above 50 years of age. In some instances of low VE, vaccination may still reduce the risk of hospitalisation in older adults with vaccine failure.

Evaluation of the effect of the herpes zoster vaccination programme 3 years after its introduction in England: a population-based study

SummaryBackgroundIn 2013, a herpes zoster vaccination programme was introduced in England for adults aged 70 years with a phased catch-up programme for those aged 71–79 years. We aimed to evaluate the effect of the first 3 years of the vaccination programme on incidence of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in this population.MethodsIn this population-based study, we extracted data from the Royal College of General Practitioners sentinel primary care network on consultations with patients aged 60–89 years for herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia occurring between Oct 1, 2005, and Sept 30, 2016, obtaining data from 164 practices. We identified individual data on herpes zoster vaccinations administered and consultations for herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia, and aggregated these data to estimate vaccine coverage and incidence of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia consultations. We defined age cohorts to identify participants targeted in each year of the programme, and as part of the routine or catch-up programme. We modelled incidence according to age, region, gender, time period, and vaccine eligibility using multivariable Poisson regression with an offset for person-years.FindingsOur analysis included 3·36 million person-years of data, corresponding to an average of 310 001 patients aged 60–89 years who were registered at an RCGP practice each year. By Aug 31, 2016, uptake of the vaccine varied between 58% for the recently targeted cohorts and 72% for the first routine cohort. Across the first 3 years of vaccination for the three routine cohorts, incidence of herpes zoster fell by 35% (incidence rate ratio 0·65 [95% 0·60–0·72]) and of postherpetic neuralgia fell by 50% (0·50 [0·38–0·67]). The equivalent reduction for the four catch-up cohorts was 33% for herpes zoster (incidence rate ratio 0·67 [0·61–0·74]) and 38% for postherpetic neuralgia (0·62 [0·50–0·79]). These reductions are consistent with a vaccine effectiveness of about 62% against herpes zoster and 70–88% against postherpetic neuralgia.InterpretationThe herpes zoster vaccination programme in England has had a population impact equivalent to about 17 000 fewer episodes of herpes zoster and 3300 fewer episodes of postherpetic neuralgia among 5·5 million eligible individuals in the first 3 years of the programme. Communication of the public health impact of this programme will be important to reverse the recent trend of declining vaccine coverage.FundingPublic Health England.

Depression and unemployment incidence rate evolution in Portugal, 1995-2013: General Practitioner Sentinel Network data.

ABSTRACTOBJECTIVE Quantify, for both genders, the correlation between the depression incidence rate and the unemployment rate in Portugal between 1995 and 2013.METHODS An ecological study was developed to correlate the evolution of the depression incidence rates estimated by the General Practitioner Sentinel Network and the annual unemployment rates provided by the National Statistical Institute in official publications.RESULTS There was a positive correlation between the depression incidence rate and the unemployment rate in Portugal, which was significant only for males (R2 = 0.83, p = 0.04). For this gender, an increase of 37 new cases of depression per 100,000 inhabitants was estimated for each 1% increase in the unemployment rate between 1995 and 2013.CONCLUSIONS Although the study design does not allow the establishment of a causal association between unemployment and depression, the results suggest that the evolution of unemployment in Portugal may have had a significant impact on the level of mental health of the Portuguese, especially among men.