Sensitive Surveillance Research Articles

Capture-recapture study to estimate the true incidence of tuberculosis in Portugal, 2018

Abstract Accurate estimation of the true number of cases of an infectious disease is essential to plan and efficiently allocate available resources. This study aims to improve the Portuguese surveillance system for tuberculosis (TB) by identifying gaps in TB epidemiological surveillance at the national level. We estimated annual TB incidence using a capture-recapture method to assess the sensitivity of national TB surveillance. Using probabilistic record linkage between two data sources, the National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SINAVE) and National Tuberculosis Program Surveillance System (SVIG-TB), we extracted TB diagnosed cases data for calendar year 2018. All reported TB cases were included, classified as confirmed, probable or possible. A two-source capture-recapture analysis using a log-linear model was performed to estimate the number of unobserved TB cases in Portugal and of the proportion identified by the current TB surveillance system. Between the two datasets, we found 896 TB cases (of a total of 2170 cases) that could not be matched (37.5% SINAVE only, 62.5% SVIG only). Based on the log-linear model, it was estimated that there were 148 unobserved TB cases (95% confidence interval 127.96 - 171.31). Therefore, the estimated true number of TB cases in 2018 is 2318, so current surveillance has a sensitivity of 93.6%. Based on these findings, the TB incidence in Portugal is estimated to be 22.55 cases per 100 000 inhabitants. Capture-recapture methods are useful in estimating annual TB incidence in high-resource settings. Although the two TB surveillance systems capture the majority of TB cases in Portugal, we might still be underestimating the true number of TB cases. Because TB is a high impact infectious disease, precise incidence estimates are crucial to allocate treatment and prevention resources and guide health policies. Key messages CRC method showed that Portugal is a TB low incidence country. Epidemiological surveillance systems should have a high sensitivity in order to allocate efficiently resources available.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Children in Southern Italy: A Descriptive Case Series.

At the beginning of the coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Italy was one of the most affected countries in Europe. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is less frequent and less severe in children than in adults. This study analyzed the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 infection among all children aged <18 years in the Apulia region of southern Italy and the characteristics of the infected children. Clinical and demographic data were collected through the national platform for COVID-19 surveillance. Of the 166 infected children in the Apulia region, 104 (62.6%) were asymptomatic, 37 (22.3%) had mild infections, 22 (13.3%) had moderate infections, and 3 (1.8%) had severe infections. Only ten children (6.0%) were hospitalized, but none required intensive care support and none died. SARS-CoV-2 infection was transmitted mainly from parents or relatives to children. Because of school closure during the lockdown, infection was unlikely to have been transmitted among children. It is unclear whether school reopening would enhance virus spread, leading the Italian government to develop guidelines for safe school reopening. The actual role of children in virus transmission remains unclear. A sensitive surveillance system, prompt identification of cases, testing, and contact tracing will be key to reducing the further spread of infection.

How Nanophotonic Label-Free Biosensors Can Contribute to Rapid and Massive Diagnostics of Respiratory Virus Infections: COVID-19 Case.

The global sanitary crisis caused by the emergence of the respiratory virus SARS-CoV-2 and the COVID-19 outbreak has revealed the urgent need for rapid, accurate, and affordable diagnostic tests to broadly and massively monitor the population in order to properly manage and control the spread of the pandemic. Current diagnostic techniques essentially rely on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests, which provide the required sensitivity and specificity. However, its relatively long time-to-result, including sample transport to a specialized laboratory, delays massive detection. Rapid lateral flow tests (both antigen and serological tests) are a remarkable alternative for rapid point-of-care diagnostics, but they exhibit critical limitations as they do not always achieve the required sensitivity for reliable diagnostics and surveillance. Next-generation diagnostic tools capable of overcoming all the above limitations are in demand, and optical biosensors are an excellent option to surpass such critical issues. Label-free nanophotonic biosensors offer high sensitivity and operational robustness with an enormous potential for integration in compact autonomous devices to be delivered out-of-the-lab at the point-of-care (POC). Taking the current COVID-19 pandemic as a critical case scenario, we provide an overview of the diagnostic techniques for respiratory viruses and analyze how nanophotonic biosensors can contribute to improving such diagnostics. We review the ongoing published work using this biosensor technology for intact virus detection, nucleic acid detection or serological tests, and the key factors for bringing nanophotonic POC biosensors to accurate and effective COVID-19 diagnosis on the short term.

CLINICAL AND BACTERIOLOGICAL PROFILE IN NEONATAL SEPTICEMIA AND ANTIBIOTIC SUSCEPTIBILITY PATTERN IN A RURAL TERTIARY CARE HOSPITAL

Background: Neonatal sepsis is an important cause of morbidity &amp; mortality among NICU graduates. The etiology of neonatal septicemia has variations depending upon various customs and practices in the perinatal and neonatal period and geographical area. Therefore, knowledge of microbial profile and antimicrobial susceptibility is very important for management of neonatal sepsis. The aim of our study is to determine the bacteriological profile of neonatal septicemia and the antimicrobial sensitivity pattern.&#x0D; Methods: This prospective study was conducted in the NICU of Department of Pediatrics, KD Medical College, Hospital and Research Centre Mathura (U.P.) among 100 neonates from july 2019 to December 2019. Two ml of venous blood was taken from each neonate &amp; cultured by automated BacT/Alert &amp; VITEK2 method for rapid isolation &amp; sensitivity test. A structured proforma was used to gather information for baseline features like age, gender, birth weight, gestational age, mode of delivery of the neonate and age of onset of illness.&#x0D; Result: In the present study, both Gram-negative &amp; Gram-positive organisms are responsible for neonatal sepsis. Klebsiella pneumoniae was found to be the predominant pathogen followed by Staphylococcus aureus. Most organisms are multi-drug resistant.&#x0D; Conclusion: Cefotaxim, amikacin, meropenam and vancomycin were found useful in treating neonatal septicemia and hence incorporated in our institutional antibiotic policy for use in NICU. Authors recommend an effective infection-control programme, regular antibiotic sensitivity surveillance, encouragement of rational antibiotic use. It will reduce nosocomial infections and development of bacterial resistance.&#x0D; Keywords: Neonatal sepsis, antimicrobial susceptibility, Klebsiella, antibiotic susceptibility surveillance.

Assessing human exposure to spotted fever and typhus group rickettsiae in Ontario, Canada (2013\u20132018): a retrospective, cross-sectional study

BackgroundAssessing the burden of rickettsial infections in Ontario, Canada, is challenging since rickettsial infections are not reportable to public health. In the absence of reportable disease data, we assessed the burden of rickettsial infections by examining patient serological data and clinical information.MethodsOur retrospective, cross-sectional study included patients who had Rickettsia serological testing ordered by their physician, in Ontario, from 2013 to 2018. We tested sera from 2755 non-travel patients for antibodies against spotted fever group rickettsiae (SFGR) and typhus group rickettsiae (TGR) using an indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) (positive IgG titers ≥1:64). We classified cases using a sensitive surveillance case definition: confirmed (4-fold increase in IgG titers between acute and convalescent sera with clinical evidence of infection), possible (single positive sera with clinical evidence) and previous rickettsial infection (single positive sera without clinical evidence). We classified cases seropositive for both SFGR and TGR as unspecified Rickettsia infections (URIs).ResultsLess than 5% of all patients had paired acute and convalescent sera tested, and of these, we found a single, laboratory-confirmed SFGR case, with a 4-fold increase in IgG titers and evidence of fever, maculopapular rash and headache. There were 45 possible (19 SFGR, 7 TGR, 19 URI) and 580 previous rickettsial infection (183 SFGR, 89 TGR, 308 URI) cases. The rate of positive tests for SFGR, TGR and URI combined (all case classifications) were 4.4 per 100,000 population. For confirmed and possible cases, the most common signs and symptoms were fever, headache, gastrointestinal complaints and maculopapular rash. The odds of having seropositive patients increased annually by 30% (odds ratio = 1.3, 95% confidence interval: 1.23–1.39).ConclusionsThe rates of rickettsial infections in Ontario are difficult to determine. Based on confirmed and possible cases, rates are low, but inclusion of previous rickettsial infection cases would indicate higher rates. We highlight the need for education regarding the importance of testing acute and convalescent sera and consistent completion of the laboratory requisition in confirming rickettsial disease. We suggest further research in Ontario to investigate rickettsial agents in potential vectors and clinical studies employing PCR testing of clinical samples.

Laboratory-based surveillance of invasive listeriosis in Northern Italy over a fourteen-year period: epidemiological and clinical results.

SummaryIntroductionInvasive listeriosis is a rare foodborne disease with a significant impact on public health worldwide, because of the severity of its clinical manifestations and high fatality rate. In this study, we provide a snapshot of epidemiology of listeriosis in Lombardy Region, Northern Italy, reviewing enhanced surveillance data collected over fourteen years, after the implementation of a voluntary laboratory-based surveillance system for the referral of clinical isolates of Listeria monocytogenes to a regional reference laboratory, since 2005.MethodsInvasive listeriosis cases data from 2005 to 2018 were extracted from the regional laboratory-based surveillance system database and compared with the regional mandatory notification disease system data.ResultsOver the fourteen-year period under study, 533 Listeria monocytogenes isolates were detected by the laboratory surveillance system, 55 of which from pregnancy-related cases. The median age of non-pregnancy-associated patients was 71 years, with 64.6% of cases observed in the elderly. Cases with underlying medical risk conditions accounted for 92.1%, and the fatality rate was 26.2%. By integrating data from the mandatory notification system and the laboratory-based surveillance system, a total of 935 cases were recorded. The collection of data through the laboratory surveillance system allowed to increase the surveillance sensitivity by 18%.ConclusionsOur results documented the growing epidemiological relevance of listeriosis through the analysis of two information sources, the regional mandatory notification system and the regional laboratory-based surveillance system. The data we obtained were consistent with the literature, except for pregnancy-related cases, which are often underdiagnosed. This study highlighted the importance of laboratory-based surveillance system, which led to a significant increase in the sensitivity of the mandatory notification system.

Epidemiology of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli Infections in Southern Italy after Implementation of Symptom-Based Surveillance of Bloody Diarrhea in the Pediatric Population.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections result in a significant public health impact because of the severity of the disease that, in young children especially, can lead to hemolytic–uremic syndrome (HUS). A rise in the number of HUS cases was observed in the Apulia region of Italy from 2013 to 2017, and so, in 2018, a symptom-based surveillance system for children with bloody diarrhea (BD) was initiated in order to detect and manage STEC infections. The objective of the study was to describe the epidemiology of STEC infections in children from June 2018 to August 2019. Children <15 years old with BD were hospitalized and tested for STEC. Real-time PCR for virulence genes (stx1, stx2, eae) and serogroup identification tests were performed on stool samples/rectal swabs of cases. STEC infection was detected in 87 (10.6%) BD cases. The median age of STEC cases was 2.7 years, and 60 (68.9%) were <4. Of these 87 cases, 12 (13.8%) came from households with diarrhea. The reporting rate was 14.2/100,000, with the highest incidence in cases from the province of Bari (24.2/100,000). Serogroups O26 and O111 were both detected in 22/87 (25.3%) cases. Co-infections occurred in 12.6% of cases (11/87). Twenty-nine STEC were positive for stx1, stx2, and eae. Five cases (5.7%) caused by O26 (n = 2), O111 (n = 2), and O45 (n = 1) developed into HUS. A risk-oriented approach based on the testing of children with BD during the summer may represent a potentially beneficial option to improve the sensitivity of STEC surveillance, not only in Italy but also in the context of Europe as a whole.

Coordination among neighbors improves the efficacy of Zika control despite economic costs.

Emerging mosquito-borne viruses like Zika, dengue, and chikungunya pose a major threat to public health, especially in low-income regions of Central and South America, southeast Asia, and the Caribbean. Outbreaks of these diseases are likely to have long-term social and economic consequences due to Zika-induced congenital microcephaly and other complications. Larval control of the container-inhabiting mosquitoes that transmit these infections is an important tool for mitigating outbreaks. However, metapopulation theory suggests that spatiotemporally uneven larvicide treatment can impede control effectiveness, as recolonization compensates for mortality within patches. Coordinating the timing of treatment among patches could therefore substantially improve epidemic control, but we must also consider economic constraints, since coordination may have costs that divert resources from treatment. To inform practical disease management strategies, we ask how coordination among neighbors in the timing of mosquito control efforts influences the size of a mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreak under the realistic assumption that coordination has costs. Using an SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered)/metapopulation model of mosquito and disease dynamics, we examine whether sharing surveillance information and coordinating larvicide treatment among neighboring patches reduces human infections when incorporating coordination costs. We examine how different types of coordination costs and different surveillance methods jointly influence the effectiveness of larval control. We find that the effect of coordination depends on both costs and the type of surveillance used to inform treatment. With epidemiological surveillance, coordination improves disease outcomes, even when costly. With demographic surveillance, coordination either improves or hampers disease control, depending on the type of costs and surveillance sensitivity. Our results suggest coordination among neighbors can improve management of mosquito-borne epidemics under many, but not all, assumptions about costs. Therefore, estimating coordination costs is an important step for most effectively applying metapopulation theory to strategies for managing outbreaks of mosquito-borne viral infections.

Computed Tomography Colonography Versus Standard Optical Colonoscopy for the Detection of Colorectal Polyp in Patients Who Faced Curative Surgery for Colorectal Cancer: A Diagnostic Performance Study

Data regarding computed tomography colonography, standard optical colonoscopy, and enhanced colonoscopy/histopathology at 1-year after surgery and at 6-month intervals for the next 2 years of 345 patients who faced curative surgery for colorectal cancer were included in this analysis. Computed tomography colonography and standard optical colonoscopy both detected 298 polyps as suspicious. With reference to enhanced colonoscopy/histopathology, sensitivities for the detection of any polyps for computed tomography colonography and standard optical colonoscopy were 0.952 and 0.906, while, accuracies were 0.783 and 0.641, respectively. Computed tomography colonography may be a sensitive and accurate surveillance tool for colorectal cancer patients.

Estimating the number of undetected COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China.

Background: Since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic in late 2019, there have been more than 152 affected regions and countries with over 110,000 confirmed cases outside mainland China. Methods: We analysed COVID-19 cases among travellers from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the region- and country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different regions and countries. Results: Although travel restrictions from Wuhan City and other cities across China may have reduced the absolute number of travellers to and from China, we estimated that more than two thirds (70%, 95% CI: 54% - 80%, compared to Singapore; 75%, 95% CI: 66% - 82%, compared to multiple countries) of cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected. Conclusions: These undetected cases potentially resulted in multiple chains of human-to-human transmission outside mainland China.

A spatial hierarchical model for integrating and bias-correcting data from passive and active disease surveillance systems

Disease surveillance data are important for monitoring disease burden and occurrence, and for informing a wide range of efforts to improve population health. Surveillance for infectious diseases may be conducted passively, relying on reports from healthcare facilities, or actively, involving surveys of the population at risk. Passive surveillance typically provides wide spatial coverage, but is subject to biases arising from differences in care-seeking behavior, diagnostic practices, and under-reporting. Active surveillance minimizes these biases, but is typically constrained to small areas and subpopulations due to resource limitations. Methods based on linkage of individual records between passive and active surveillance datasets provide a means to estimate and correct for the biases of each system, leveraging the size and coverage of passive surveillance and the quality of data in active surveillance. We develop a spatial Bayesian hierarchical model for bias-correcting data from both systems to yield an improved estimate of disease measures after adjusting for under-ascertainment. We apply the framework to data from a passive and an active surveillance system for pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Sichuan, China, and estimate the average sensitivity of the active surveillance system at 70% (95% credible interval: 62%, 78%), and the passive system at 30% (95% CI: 24%, 35%). Passive surveillance sensitivity exhibited considerable spatial variability, and was positively associated with a site’s gross domestic product per capita. Bias-corrected estimates of county-level PTB prevalence in the province in 2010 identified regions in the southeast with the highest PTB burden, yielding different geographic priorities than previous reports.

Surveillance to Track Progress Toward Polio Eradication - Worldwide, 2018-2019.

Since the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was launched in 1988, the number of polio cases worldwide has declined approximately 99.99%; only two countries (Afghanistan and Pakistan) have never interrupted wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission (1). The primary means of detecting poliovirus circulation is through surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) among children aged <15 years with testing of stool specimens for WPV and vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) (genetically reverted strains of the vaccine virus that regain neurovirulence) in World Health Organization (WHO)-accredited laboratories (2,3). In many locations, AFP surveillance is supplemented by environmental surveillance, the regular collection and testing of sewage to provide awareness of the extent and duration of poliovirus circulation (3). This report presents 2018-2019 poliovirus surveillance data, focusing on 40 priority countries* with WPV or VDPV outbreaks or at high risk for importation because of their proximity to a country with an outbreak. The number of priority countries rose from 31 in 2018 to 40 in 2019 because of a substantial increase in the number of VDPV outbreaks† (2,4). In areas with low poliovirus immunity, VDPVs can circulate in the community and cause outbreaks of paralysis; these are known as circulating vaccine derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) (4). In 2019, only 25 (63%) of the 40 designated priority countries met AFP surveillance indicators nationally; subnational surveillance performance varied widely and indicated focal weaknesses. High quality, sensitive surveillance is important to ensure timely detection and response to cVDPV and WPV transmission.

Quantification of the sensitivity of early detection surveillance.

Early detection surveillance is used for various purposes, including the early detection of non‐communicable diseases (e.g. cancer screening), of unusual increases of disease frequency (e.g. influenza or pertussis outbreaks), and the first occurrence of a disease in a previously free population. This latter purpose is particularly important due to the high consequences and cost of delayed detection of a disease moving to a new population. Quantifying the sensitivity of early detection surveillance allows important aspects of the performance of different systems, approaches and authorities to be evaluated, compared and improved. While quantitative evaluation of the sensitivity of other branches of surveillance has been available for many years, development has lagged in the area of early detection, arguably one of the most important purposes of surveillance. This paper, using mostly animal health examples, develops a simple approach to quantifying the sensitivity of early detection surveillance, in terms of population coverage, temporal coverage and detection sensitivity. This approach is extended to quantify the benefits of risk‐based approaches to early detection surveillance. Population‐based clinical surveillance (based on either farmers and their veterinarians, or patients and their local health services) provides the best combination of sensitivity, practicality and cost‐effectiveness. These systems can be significantly enhanced by removing disincentives to reporting, for instance by implementing effective strategies to improve farmer awareness and engagement with health services and addressing the challenges of well‐intentioned disease notification policies that inadvertently impose barriers to reporting.

Conserved CRISPR arrays in Salmonella enterica serovar Infantis can serve as qPCR targets to detect Infantis in mixed serovar populations.

Salmonellosis is a leading bacterial cause of foodborne illness, and numerous Salmonella enterica serovars have been responsible for foodborne outbreaks. In the United States outbreaks are often linked to poultry and poultry-related products. The prevalence of Salmonella serovar Infantis has been increasing in poultry processing facilities over the past few years and in 2018 was identified as the causative agent for a large multistate outbreak linked to raw chicken. CRISPR-typing is a subtyping approach based on PCR and the sequencing of two Salmonella loci, CRISPR1 and CRISPR2. CRISPR-typing was used to interrogate 138 recent (2018-2019) isolates and genomes of ser. Infantis. Results show that the CRISPR elements are remarkably conserved in this serovar. The most conserved spacers, and those also unique to ser. Infantis, were used as targets to develop a ser. Infantis-specific qPCR assay. This assay was able to detect ser. Infantis in mixed serovar cultures of Salmonella, down to 0·1% of the population, highlighting the utility of this molecular approach in improving surveillance sensitivity for this important food safety pathogen. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The incidence of human salmonellosis cases caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Infantis (ser. Infantis) has been increasing, as has its prevalence in broiler chickens, which are a frequent reservoir of Salmonella. A cluster of ser. Infantis genetically linked to an outbreak strain have been identified in numerous processing facilities. A qPCR assay targeting CRISPR elements that are unique to ser. Infantis has been developed and can detect this serovar directly from mixed cultures. This assay is sensitive enough to reveal ser. Infantis within a mixed Salmonella population where it constitutes only 0·1% of the population. The rapid nature of qPCR lends this assay to high-throughput screening of poultry samples to detect this important pathogen.

A systematic review of alternative surveillance approaches for lymphatic filariasis in low prevalence settings: Implications for post-validation settings.

Due to the success of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) many countries have either eliminated the disease as a public health problem or are scheduled to achieve this elimination status in the coming years. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommend that the Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS) is used routinely for post-mass drug administration (MDA) surveillance but it is considered to lack sensitivity in low prevalence settings and not be suitable for post-validation surveillance. Currently there is limited evidence to support programme managers on the design of appropriate alternative strategies to TAS that can be used for post-validation surveillance, as recommended by the WHO. We searched for human and mosquito LF surveillance studies conducted between January 2000 and December 2018 in countries which had either completed MDA or had been validated as having eliminated LF. Article screening and selection were independently conducted. 44 papers met the eligibility criteria, summarising evidence from 22 countries and comprising 83 methodologically distinct surveillance studies. No standardised approach was reported. The most common study type was community-based human testing (n = 42, 47.2%), followed by mosquito xenomonitoring (n = 23, 25.8%) and alternative (non-TAS) forms of school-based human testing (n = 19, 21.3%). Most studies were cross-sectional (n = 61, 73.5%) and used non-random sampling methods. 11 different human diagnostic tests were described. Results suggest that sensitivity of LF surveillance can be increased by incorporating newer human diagnostic tests (including antibody tests) and the use of mosquito xenomonitoring may be able to help identify and target areas of active transmission. Alternative sampling methods including the addition of adults to routine surveillance methods and consideration of community-based sampling could also increase sensitivity. The evidence base to support post-validation surveillance remains limited. Further research is needed on the diagnostic performance and cost-effectiveness of new diagnostic tests and methodologies to guide policy decisions and must be conducted in a range of countries. Evidence on how to integrate surveillance within other routine healthcare processes is also important to support the ongoing sustainability of LF surveillance.

Development of a SYBR green I-based duplex real-time PCR assay for detection of pseudorabies virus and porcine circovirus 3

In the present study, a specific and reliable duplex SYBR green I-based quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction assay was established to detect pseudorabies virus (PRV) and porcine circovirus 3 (PCV3) simultaneously. Viral genomes of PRV and PCV3 in one specimen were identified by their different melting temperatures with melting peaks at 87 °C and 81 °C for PRV and PCV3 respectively, whilst other non-targeted swine pathogens exhibited no fluorescent signals. The assay displayed a high degree of linearity (R2 > 0.997), and the limits of detection were 37.8 copies/μL, 30.6 copies/μL and 60 copies/μL for PRV, PCV3 and the mixture of two recombinant plasmids, respectively. It had good repeatability and reproducibility, and the coefficients of variation in intra-batch and inter-batch assays were all less than 2.0%. In this research, the duplex assay was further evaluated using 117 clinical tissue specimens from diseased pigs in the field. The results revealed the infection rates of PRV and PCV3 were 23.08% (27/117) and 55.56% (65/117) respectively, and PRV and PCV3 co-infection rate was 14.53% (17/117). The assay could be utilized as a diagnostic tool with specificity, sensitivity, and reliability for molecular epidemiological surveillance of PRV and PCV3.

Post-outbreak African horse sickness surveillance: A scenario tree evaluation in South Africa's controlled area.

An African horse sickness (AHS) outbreak occurred in March and April 2016 in the controlled area of South Africa. This extended an existing trade suspension of live equids from South Africa to the European Union. In the post-outbreak period ongoing passive and active surveillance, the latter in the form of monthly sentinel surveillance and a stand-alone freedom from disease survey in March 2017, took place. We describe a stochastic scenario tree analysis of these surveillance components for 24months, starting July 2016, in three distinct geographic areas of the controlled area. Given that AHS was not detected, the probability of being free from AHS was between 98.3% and 99.8% assuming that, if it were present, it would have a prevalence of at least one infected animal in 1% of herds. This high level of freedom probability had been attained in all three areas within the first 9months of the 2-year period. The primary driver of surveillance outcomes was the passive surveillance component. Active surveillance components contributed minimally (<0.2%) to the final probability of freedom. Sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of infected horses showing clinical signs was an important parameter influencing the system surveillance sensitivity. The monthly probability of disease introduction needed to be increased to 20% and greater to decrease the overall probability of freedom to below 90%. Current global standards require a 2-year post-incursion period of AHS freedom before re-evaluation of free zone status. Our findings show that the length of this period could be decreased if adequately sensitive surveillance is performed. In order to comply with international standards, active surveillance will remain a component of AHS surveillance in South Africa. Passive surveillance, however, can provide substantial evidence supporting AHS freedom status declarations, and further investment in this surveillance activity would be beneficial.

Australian National Enterovirus Reference Laboratory annual report, 2016.

Australia monitors its polio-free status by conducting surveillance for cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) in children less than 15 years of age, as recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). Cases of AFP in children are notified to the Australian Paediatric Surveillance Unit or the Paediatric Active Enhanced Disease Surveillance System and faecal specimens are referred for virological investigation to the National Enterovirus Reference Laboratory. In 2016, no cases of poliomyelitis were reported from clinical surveillance and Australia reported 1.38 non-polio AFP cases per 100,000 children, meeting the WHO performance criterion for a sensitive surveillance system. Several non-polio enteroviruses, coxsackievirus A6, enterovirus A71, enterovirus A74 and enterovirus D68, were identified from clinical specimens collected from AFP cases. The global withdrawal of Sabin poliovirus type 2 from oral polio vaccine occurred in April 2016. This event represents the start of the polio endgame with an increased focus on the laboratory containment of all remaining wild and vaccine strains of poliovirus type 2. The National Enterovirus Reference Laboratory was designated as a polio essential facility as part of this process. In 2016, 37 cases of wild polio were reported with three countries remaining endemic: Afghanistan, Nigeria and Pakistan. Nigeria was declared polio-free in 2015, after 12 months without detection of wild poliovirus, but was reinstated as an endemic country after the reporting of four cases in August 2016. This is a salient reminder of the need to maintain sensitive surveillance for poliovirus until global eradication is certified.

Australian National Enterovirus Reference Laboratory annual report, 2018

Australia monitors its polio-free status by conducting surveillance for cases of AFP in children less than 15 years of age, as recommended by the WHO. Cases of AFP in children are notified to the Australian Paediatric Surveillance Unit or the Paediatric Active Enhanced Disease Surveillance System and faecal specimens are referred for virological investigation to the National Enterovirus Reference Laboratory. In 2018, no cases of poliomyelitis were reported from clinical surveillance and Australia reported 1.24 non-polio AFP cases per 100,000 children, meeting the WHO performance criterion for a sensitive surveillance system. Several non-polio enteroviruses, coxsackievirus A4, coxsackievirus B1, echovirus 9, echovirus 30, enterovirus D68 and enterovirus A71, were identified from clinical specimens collected from AFP cases. Australia also performs enterovirus and environmental surveillance to complement the clinical system focussed on children. In 2018, 33 cases of wild polio were reported with three countries remaining endemic: Afghanistan, Nigeria and Pakistan.

Australian National Enterovirus Reference Laboratory annual report, 2015.

Australia conducts surveillance for cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) in children less than 15 years as recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the main method to monitor its polio-free status. Cases of AFP in children are notified to the Australian Paediatric Surveillance Unit or the Paediatric Active Enhanced Disease Surveillance System and faecal specimens are referred for virological investigation to the National Enterovirus Reference Laboratory. In 2015, no cases of poliomyelitis were reported from clinical surveillance and Australia reported 1.2 non-polio AFP cases per 100,000 children, meeting the WHO performance criterion for a sensitive surveillance system. Two non-polio enteroviruses, enterovirus A71 and coxsackievirus B3, were identified from clinical specimens collected from AFP cases. Australia complements the clinical surveillance program with enterovirus and environmental surveillance for poliovirus. Two Sabin-like polioviruses were isolated from sewage collected in Melbourne in 2015, which would have been imported from a country that uses the oral polio vaccine. The global eradication of wild poliovirus type 2 was certified in 2015 and Sabin poliovirus type 2 will be withdrawn from oral polio vaccine in April 2016. Laboratory containment of all remaining wild and vaccine strains of poliovirus type 2 will occur in 2016 and the National Enterovirus Reference Laboratory was designated as a polio essential facility. Globally, in 2015, 74 cases of polio were reported, only in the two remaining countries endemic for wild poliovirus: Afghanistan and Pakistan. This is the lowest number reported since the global polio eradication program was initiated.