Semi-strong Market Efficiency Research Articles

Speed of price adjustment toward market efficiency of Indian agricultural commodity market: a market microstructure analysis of market quality

PurposeThis study examines the semi-strong market efficiency of the Indian agricultural commodity market in light of market reforms and policies. This study investigates whether the market reforms have boosted the speed of price adjustment and influenced the market quality.Design/methodology/approachThe study used the daily data of nine agricultural commodities. To precisely capture the effects of market microstructure changes, this study split the whole data into pre- and post-ban and pre- and post-reform eras. To ascertain the velocity of price adjustment, the authors used the ARMA (1,1) model, and the ADD VRatio was employed to identify the price movement on a specific day.FindingsThis study found that full incorporation of information happens sometimes. The authors noticed no gradual progress in the quickness of price adjustment. Since both methods suggested the same result for the period, the authors confirm that market microstructure changes do not enhance market quality.Research limitations/implicationsThis research has implications for academicians, policymakers and market players.Originality/valueThe paper has twofold novelty. First, this is a contemporary topic, and very few studies have been done in the Indian agriculture context. Second, the study has implications for policymakers and government because it highlights the effects of structural changes on market quality and market efficiency.

A Longer-Term Evaluation of Information Releases by Influential Market Agents and the Semi-Strong Market Efficiency

This paper is an evaluation of long-term cumulative abnormal returns (CAR's) based on Twitter broadcasts by highly influential market agents. We look at the information content of Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, Tesla and Twitter Inc. and the former US President Donald Trump. The principal objectives of this research are twofold: 1.) To assess whether markets are semi-strong form efficient and consequentially whether or not returns can be derived from strategies based on such sporadic tweet releases (abstracting from ‘news’). For this purpose, event studies are conducted on multiple companies which were targeted by Musk and Trump tweets. A control group of all Dow Jones companies with earnings releases on Twitter is utilized. We find there appears to be a “pre-post-Twitter-drift” when the release is by exceedingly influential market personalities. The cumulative abnormal returns remain significant over long durations. This indicates that markets are not entirely semi-strong form efficient regarding social media releases and that trading on such tweets may be profitable (even after factoring in varying market phases). 2.) The paper introduces a new theme: long term CAR's of market information events. The paper also notes whether the tweet was during regular market hours or after-market hours.

The Effects of Corporate Governance, Managerial Ownership and Bonus Plan on Earnings Management: A Case of ASEAN-3 Companies

This study is to examine and analyze the effects of corporate governance, managerial ownership, and bonus plan on earnings management of manufacturing and financial companies, which are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Malaysia Stock Exchange, and the Philippines Stock Exchange. It analyzed the balance sheet data, income, and capital statements presented in the 2008-2012 periods and applied the multiple linear regression analysis and one-way ANOVA to test the proposed hypotheses. The findings showed that corporate governance, managerial ownership, and bonus plan simultaneously did not affect earnings management. There was no significant difference in the proportion of independent board of commissioners, the size of the board of directors, proportion of independent audit committee, managerial ownership, bonus plan, and earnings management between Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines stock exchanges. It implies that the ASEAN-3 companies consider corporate governance unimportant in managing their earnings. It also gives new insights into a rare phenomenon of agency theory findings in semi-strong market efficiency post-global financial crisis 2008.

Stranded houses? The price effect of a minimum energy efficiency standard

Climate policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions can lead to decreases in the values of assets, risking them to become “stranded”. We study the price effects of the introduction of a specific climate policy, a minimum energy efficiency standard, in the housing market. Leveraging a unique data set of the population of all residential house transactions in England and Wales, we show that prices of energy-inefficient properties affected by this policy decreased on average by about £5k to £9k relative to efficient ones. We interpret this evidence as being consistent with semi-strong market efficiency in the housing market.

Türkiye’de Yolsuzluk Endeksinin Borsa İstanbul-100 Endeksi Üzerine Etkisi

While corruption generally negatively affects growth by reducing predictability in the economy, it can have a positive effect on investments and thus growth by making easier to overcome rigidities in the bureaucratic environment at the micro-firm level. In this context, stock markets, which are the barometer of the economy, may be negatively affected by corruption and it is thought that the positive performance on the basis of the company will improve the stock market. In the study, it has been studied the relationships between stock market and corruption, using interest rate and per capita income as control variables, in the framework of the structural vector auto regressive model for the period from 1995 to 2019, The findings show that corruption enhances the stock market in Turkey. It can be said that the despotic Leviathan structure plays a deepening role in this situation. From this respect, the stock market, in an environment in which it acts with a semi-strong market efficiency motive, has almost the meaning of uncertainty for an investor and so makes it risky for the average investor to go towards the stock market. In sum, it can be said that the presence of such an image that the stock market rallies by virtue of corruption becomes a problem for Turkey which needs capital accumulation over long periods of time.

Forecasting high‐frequency excess stock returns via data analytics and machine learning

AbstractBorsa Istanbul introduced data analytics to present additional information about its market conditions. We examine whether this product can be utilized via various machine learning methods to predict intraday excess returns. Accordingly, these analytics provide significant prediction ratios above 50% with ideal profit ratios that can reach up to 33%. Among all the methods considered, XGBoost (logistic regression) performs better in predicting excess returns in the long‐term analysis (short‐term analysis). Results provide evidence for the benefits of both the analytics and the machine learning methods and raise further discussion on the semistrong market efficiency.

Market efficiency and the Greek fixed-odds betting market

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to empirically examine the efficiency of Greek fixed-odds (offline) betting market as offered by OPAP for the period 2016–2019.Design/methodology/approachUsing a four-year data sample of OPAP's opening and closing odds for football matches from all over the world and applying linear probability and probit models, the market efficiency is examined and the existence of possible anomalies is investigated.FindingsThe main findings of research suggest that although the odds are dominated primarily by favorite-longshot bias and secondarily by draw bias, this mispricing cannot prove profitable. However, the opening odds, the margin levels and the market structure provide information that is not fully captured by the closing odds, giving bettors profit opportunities. Thus, findings show that the semi-strong market efficiency is questionable. Finally, competition reduces commissions leading to more efficient odds.Practical implicationsThe conclusions of this study are useful for football betting market and, particularly, for government authorities, bookmakers and bettors. Findings can be extended in future research to prediction tasks.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study about the Greek football betting market. The contribution to the literature lies on the one hand in the examination of a monopolistic land-based betting market, which is being squeezed and threatened by the more competitive online betting market, and on the other hand in the simultaneous examination of the opening and closing odds.

Climate policy and transition risk in the housing market

Public policies aimed at mitigating climate change can come with the transition risk of sudden adjustments of asset prices. We study the consequences of a policy intervention addressing greenhouse gas emissions in the housing market. Leveraging a unique data set of the population of all house transactions in England and Wales, we document novel evidence of transition risk. Prices of carbon-intensive properties affected by this policy decreased by about £5,000 to £9,000 relative to unaffected ones. We interpret this result as evidence in favour of semi-strong market efficiency in the housing market. We infer moderate implications for financial stability and for the wealth distribution among homeowners.

Does learning by observing matter for M&As? International evidence from the insurance industry

ABSTRACT This paper examines the role of learning by observing in insurance mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by employing an international sample across 18 countries spanning the years 1990 to 2014. The empirical results support a view of semi-strong market efficiency: the long-run improvements in financial performance and risk profiles are significantly related to past M&As in the insurance industry. Moreover, we find evidence of more accurate stock market predictions of long-run financial performance and risk profiles if there are more recent insurance merger activities. This paper provides a new explanation for the controversy observed in the failure of insurance M&As to create value.

Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: An ARDL Bounds Testing approach

The aim of this paper is to investigate the semi-strong market efficiency hypothesis with respect to fiscal policy information, in the context of the Bucharest Stock Exchange. Taking into account that macroeconomic data series of emerging countries usually have a limited size and may be plagued by inconsistencies and structural breaks, this paper proposes an ARDL Bounds testing approach for studying the relationship between stock returns and lagged macroeconomic variables. Moreover, this approach allows us to examine both the long and short-term relationship between fiscal policy and stock returns. The results indicate that, in the long run, stock prices fully and efficiently reflect information on past fiscal policy. However, in the short run, the Romanian stock market reacts efficiently only to unexpected fiscal policy news, while anticipated fiscal policy information displays a significant lagged relationship with current stock returns. In addition, the results also showed that monetary policy information is not incorporated efficiently into stock prices, both in the short and the long run, and its impact on stock returns is larger than the one exerted by fiscal policy.

Copy-Paste Outperformance: Lazy Investors and Copied Reports

Cohen, Malloy, and Nguyen (2020) show that year-over-year changes in annual and quarterly reports of US firms significantly predict future returns: ”changers” generate negative alpha and underperform ”no changers” considerably. I replicate this anomaly for an updated and investable sample of S&P 1500 constituents between 1996 and June 2020 (3,668 firms, 208,425 reports). The quintile of firms with least similar reports still generates negative 3- and 5-factor alpha of up to -5.12% per year. In contrast to Cohen et al. (2020), I find a pronounced asymmetry: ”changers” underperform but ”no changers” do not outperform. The prevailing explanation is inattention: ”lazy” investors apparently do not read reports carefully and fail to spot important changes. I provide novel evidence for this argument, as ”changers” continue to underperform in the attention-grabbing universe of S&P 500 firms. Given that ”changers” earn lower future margins and returns on invested capital, these results challenge semi-strong market efficiency for probably the most widely followed stocks in the world.

Market efficiency of the bitcoin exchange rate: Weak and semi-strong form tests with the spot, futures and forward foreign exchange rates

We propose a bitcoin-based exchange rate of USD/EUR and investigate market efficiency in the spot, futures, and forward FX markets. Structural-change, unit-root and Johansen tests indicate that the bitcoin exchange rate is a random walk and is co-integrated with the FX series. Inferences regarding the co-integrating coefficients suggest the long-run “unbiasedness” and short-run “fair game” nature of the bitcoin exchange rate. Our results are indicative of weak or semi-strong market efficiency.

Brexit Announcement: A Test of Market Efficiency

This study tests market efficiency theory by examining the effect of the Brexit announcement on the risk adjusted stock price returns of a sample of firms with strong economic ties to the EU using the standard event study methodology in the finance literature. How did the market react to UK leaving the European Union? We hypothesize that the June 24, 2016 Brexit announcement would negatively affect the risk adjusted returns of the sample of firms analyzed. The purpose of this study is to test market efficiency by analyzing the effect of Brexit’s announcement on the market. Specifically, we analyze the semi-strong market efficiency hypothesis predicting that stock price returns react so fast to all public information that no investor can earn an above normal return by acting on such news. Consistent with market efficiency and behavioral finance theories, we observe an overreaction to the bad news up to 14 days following the announcement followed by a return to equilibrium. Overall, results support semi-strong form market efficiency for the Brexit announcement. Implications of this study suggest that efforts to determine the “right” value of stock are useless since the market is semi-strong form efficient. The “right” price is themarket price that instantly impounds all available and relevant information.

Estudo de Eventos Sobre o Anúncio da Emissão de Debêntures

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a hipótese de que as emissões de debêntures geram retornos anormais positivos nas ações das companhias emissoras. Para tanto, realiza-se um estudo de eventos, entre o período de janeiro de 2014 e junho de 2015, tendo como referência a data do anúncio do início da distribuição das debêntures. O estudo analisa 40 pregões anteriores e posteriores a esse evento. A amostra final é composta por 11 companhias brasileiras não financeiras. Como resultado, verifica-se que a maioria dos retornos anormais acumulados são positivos e estatisticamente diferentes de zero, confirmando a hipótese desse estudo. Tal fato aponta para sinais de eficiência semiforte do mercado..

Resolving the Reliance on Fixed Estimation Dates in the Implied Cost of Equity Capital Approach

Abstract Our study’s objective is to develop and analyze a dynamic approach for estimating firms’ expected cost of equity capital. We contribute to the literature by enabling the usage of any required estimation date, resolving the major shortcoming of the existing models—their reliance on one fixed estimation date. This paper presents our model and discusses it from the perspective of the extant body of literature. We show that the current state of the art approach in dynamic estimation does not satisfy theoretical and practical demands, and offers scope for significant improvements. We conduct our analysis by specially considering capital market efficiency, the consistent appreciation of cash flows with respect to timing, and straightforward practical implementation for researchers and practitioners. Building on semi-strong capital market efficiency, the analysis reveals further insights into residual income valuation as we demonstrate that any realization of residual income in the course of the year is irrelevant to valuation in the absence of dividend realization. Consequently, assumptions regarding the shape of earnings in the course of the year are also irrelevant to valuation. Additionally, our theoretically founded model conveniently facilitates the undistorted incorporation of different fiscal year-ends in large samples and avoids stale measures of expected cost of equity capital.

How Efficient is the Foreign Exchange Market?

In this paper, we try to measure the degree of efficiency in the foreign exchange market by using four exchange rates ($/€, $/£, C$/$, and ¥/$). Different theoretical models are applied, like the random walk hypothesis, the unbiased forward rate hypothesis, the composite efficiency hypothesis, the semi-strong market efficiency, and the exchange rate expectations based on anticipated and unanticipated events (News). If exchange rate efficiency does not hold, a risk premium must exist and can be measured. Also, the determination of this exchange risk premium is taking place by using a GARCH (p, q) model. The empirical results for these four major exchange rates (five currencies) show that relative efficiency exists, but there are significant risk premia for some exchange rates used, here

Reaksi saham perbankan terhadap penurunan BI rate April 2016 dan implikasinya terhadap strategi investasi: pengujian terhadap hipotesis pasar efisien

Stagnation of BI Rate during year 2015 on 7.5% level, causing a profit growth deceleration and stock price compulsion in banking sector. BI rate and BI 7-Day Repo Rate policy announcement on April 21st 2016 is a new relevant information for banking sector in Indonesia. Because both are as an interest rate reference for determining deposit and landing interest rate, which directly related to banking sector profit and expenses. This study verify an abnormal return existence during the announcement, in order to observe the market ability to directly absorb the relevant information and reflected in the stock price of the banking sector. The procedures which run in this study is also to test the market efficiency theory in the semi strong form.This study indicate that during the observation period there is no existence of abnormal return, which is show that the market are directly absorb the new relevant information and reflected it in the stock prices. Thus the market indicate as semi strong efficient.Investor decision making implication refer to this study result is there will not be an optimal return for them if they applied an active investment strategy during this period.So, in this semi strong market efficiency situation, it is better for the investor not to apply the active investment strategy.

REAKSI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA TERHADAP PENGUMUMAN KEMENANGAN DONALD TRUMP DALAM PILPRES AMERIKA SERIKAT 2016

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya abnormal return setelah peristiwa pengumuman kemenangan Donald Trump, dalam Pemilu Presiden Amerika Serikat 2016 pada saham LQ-45. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan event study, yaitu pendekatan yang digunakan untuk menguji efisiensi pasar bentuk setengah kuat. Sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah perusahaan yang terdaftar pada indeks LQ-45. Expected return dalam penelitian ini dihitung menggunakan market-adjusted model. Berdasarkan hasil uji-t ditemukan bahwa peristiwa pengumuman kemenangan Donald Trump dalam Pilpres Amerika Serikat 2016 menimbulkan reaksi pasar. Reaksi pasar dapat dilihat dari adanya abnormal return signifikan, yaitu pada H+1, H+3, H+4 dan H+5. Ditemukannya abnormal return signifikan pada H+3, H+4 dan H+5 berarti bahwa pasar tidak efisien karena reaksi terjadi berkepanjangan.
 Kata Kunci : reaksi pasar, efisiensi pasar bentuk setengah kuat, peristiwa politik.

Information stages in efficient markets

Abstract Market efficiency, in its strong form, asserts that asset prices fully reflect all available information. The classical event study methodology attempts to make explicit this link by assuming rigid and universal pre-event, event, and post-event periods. As an alternative, our framework captures the progressive diffusion of information around events as well as the overlapping impacts of separate events. We also illustrate that our approach captures mean-reversion of expected returns and increased volatility around announcement dates. These features reflect latent regime switches and are associated with semi-strong market efficiency.

The impact of Mad Money recommendations during bull and bear markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine semi-strong market efficiency by observing the behavioral finance implications of Jim Cramer’s recommendations in bull vs bear markets. The authors extend the literature by analyzing investor reaction through the lenses of prospect theory, overreaction, and herding. Design/methodology/approach – The authors test for abnormal returns in response to Mad Money buy and sell recommendations. The authors use a sample of buy and sell recommendations from MadMoneyRecap.com from July 28, 2005 through February 9, 2009. The 3.5-year time period is the most recent and comprehensive set of Mad Money recommendations that has been tested to date. Findings – The results indicate market inefficiency at the semi-strong level. Furthermore, the findings highlight the loss aversion tendencies of investors in regards to prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) as well as the disposition effect of Shefrin and Statman (1985). Evidence also exists consistent with the herding and overreaction hypotheses. Practical implications – The evidence suggests contrarian behavior in which investors respond positively to good news in bad times – perhaps, in effort to stay the course and at least break even. This behavior may suggest that losers tend to hold on to losses in hopes of recouping them. Thus, positive information in bad times could further persuade market participants to hang on to or buy more of losers, while also persuading non-shareholders to buy in as well. Originality/value – Though other studies including Kenny and Johnson (2010) have estimated abnormal returns in response to analyst recommendations, to the knowledge, none has examined behavioral implications of investor reaction to buy and sell recommendations in both bull and bear markets. Furthermore, the study captures a longer bull and bear market and covers two definitions of such markets.