Communication-based train controls (CBTC) systems play a major role in urban rail transportation. As CBTC systems are no longer isolated from the outside world but use other networks to increase efficiency and improve productivity, they are exposed to huge cyber threats. This paper proposes a generalized stochastic Petri net (GSPN) model to capture dynamic interaction between the attacker and the defender to evaluate the security of CBTC systems. Depending on the characteristics of the system and attack–defense methods, we divided our model into two phases: penetration and disruption. In each phase, we provided effective means of attack and corresponding defensive measures, and the system state was determined correspondingly. Additionally, a semiphysical simulation platform and game model were proposed to assist the GSPN model parameterization. With the steady-state probability of the system output from the model, we propose several indicators for assessing system security. Finally, we compared the security of the system with single defensive measures and multiple defensive measures. Our evaluations indicated the significance of the defensive measures and the seriousness of the system security situation.
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