Self-organized Criticality Theory Research Articles

The strength prediction model of unidirectional fiber reinforced composites based on the renormalization group method

When unidirectional fiber reinforced composites are subjected to longitudinal tensile loading and reach a critical failure state, they experience a sudden transition from local damage to catastrophic failure, commonly termed as an avalanche event. This paper integrates the self-organized criticality theory (SOC) concepts into the prediction of longitudinal tensile strength of composites and establishes a strength prediction model of composites based on the renormalization group method (RGM). The predictions of the RGM model are successfully validated against experimental results in the literatures, and it demonstrates relatively acceptable predictive accuracy compared to classical strength criteria. Compared to other state-of-the-art prediction models considering stochastic fiber strength distribution, the RGM model effectively provides strength statistics for fiber bundles of any size and describes the occurrence of composites avalanche failure induced by local stress concentration. This present model can be very conveniently implemented as a User Material Subroutine (UMAT) for finite simulations, facilitating practical prediction of the strength of composites structures.

Personality and Society in the Theory of Self-Organized Criticality

Emerged in the domain of natural science, the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC) has spread to various fields over the past decades, achieving the status of an interdisciplinary paradigm. This article aims to answer three questions: Is SOC really a ubiquitous property of social reality? Does the SOC theory really substantiate the fundamental unpredictability and inevitability of social catastrophes? What contribution can the SOC theory make to clarifying the fundamental mystery of the relationship between human will and historical necessity? I performed a meta-analysis of the latest literature and summarized the results of my own case studies. So far, there is not enough empirical data to confirm that SOC is ubiquitous, although it has been proven that SOC is characteristic of many social systems—especially those in a borderline, transitional state. The SOC theory supports the idea that in some social systems for a fairly long time (even by historical standards), human will, act, and opinion can have a fundamental impact on the development of the whole of a system.

Response of cross-correlations between high PM2.5 and O3 with increasing time scales to the COVID-19: different trends in BTH and PRD

The air pollution in China currently is characterized by high fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) concentrations. Compared with single high pollution events, such double high pollution (DHP) events (both PM2.5 and O3 are above the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)) pose a greater threat to public health and environment. In 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 provided a special time window to further understand the cross-correlation between PM2.5 and O3. Based on this background, a novel detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) based on maximum time series of variable time scales (VM-DCCA) method is established in this paper to compare the cross-correlation between high PM2.5 and O3 in Beijing-Tianjin-Heibei (BTH) and Pearl River Delta (PRD). At first, the results show that PM2.5 decreased while O3 increased in most cities due to the effect of COVID-19, and the increase in O3 is more significant in PRD than in BTH. Secondly, through DCCA, the results show that the PM2.5-O3 DCCA exponents α decrease by an average of 4.40% and 2.35% in BTH and PRD respectively during COVID-19 period compared with non-COVID-19 period. Further, through VM-DCCA, the results show that the PM2.5-O3 VM-DCCA exponents [Formula: see text] in PRD weaken rapidly with the increase of time scales, with decline range of about 23.53% and 22.90% during the non-COVID-19 period and COVID-19 period respectively at 28-h time scale. BTH is completely different. Without significant tendency, its [Formula: see text] is always higher than that in PRD at different time scales. Finally, we explain the above results with the self-organized criticality (SOC) theory. The impact of meteorological conditions and atmospheric oxidation capacity (AOC) variation during the COVID-19 period on SOC state are further discussed. The results show that the characteristics of cross-correlation between high PM2.5 and O3 are the manifestation of the SOC theory of atmospheric system. Relevant conclusions are important for the establishment of regionally targeted PM2.5-O3 DHP coordinated control strategies.

Учет сложности в задачах транспортного спроса

The article describes the theoretical basis for taking into account the complexity in solving problems of transport demand, the analysis of the concept of “self-organized criticality” is carried out. The problems of describing complex conduct in transport systems are solved, the prerequisites or causes of complex behavior are indicated, the traditional definitions of a “complex transport system” are formalized. Examples of some models demonstrating complex behavior in transport systems are given. Objective: formulation of research directions in the theory of transport systems, which should be developed with the help of conceptual and mathematical devices of individual sciences, such as complexity theory, nonlinear dynamics, to solve problems of transport demand, accompanied by flows of various events and elements in transport macrosystems, to take into account the complexity of problems in the theory of transport systems in modeling the dynamics of transport demand. Approaches used: development of mathematical models of nonlinear transport systems demonstrating complex behavior, including models with power-law distribution of system characteristics within the framework of self-organized criticality, as well as models demonstrating bifurcations. Methods and (or) methodological apparatus of research: methods of the theory of self-organized criticality and synergetics, allowing to take into account the properties of a complex system. The scientific novelty lies in the use of methods and approaches of the theory of self-organized criticality and complexity theory for a wide class of models of transport systems used in problems of transport demand and based on traffic flow models. Directions for further research, recommendations: it is required to analyze real statistics of the behavior of transport systems that correspond to various states of the transport system, including complex behavior, as well as the formulation and solution of problems of the theory of transport macrosystems.

Self-organized criticality in manufacturing system unscheduled downtime series and its application to major failure prediction

In this study, self-organized criticality theory was applied to analyze the unscheduled downtime (USDT) characteristic of a complex manufacturing system. The long-range correlation of the USDT series was verified through the Hurst exponent value. Then, we developed a model to depict the relationship between the frequency and USDT duration with the extreme value theory. The parameters of the model were estimated with the maximum likelihood method and updated with Bayesian inference when new data was available. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method was validated by the USDT data of the bottleneck system from a semiconductor assembly and test factory.

Universal predictability of large avalanches in the Manna sandpile model.

Substantiated explanations of the unpredictability regarding sandpile models of self-organized criticality (SOC) gave way to efficient forecasts of extremes in a few models. The appearance of extremes requires a preparation phase that ends with general overloading of the system and spatial clustering of the local stress. Here, we relate the predictability of large events to the system volume in the Manna and Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpiles, which are basic models of SOC. We establish that in the Manna model, the events located to the right of the power-law segment of the size-frequency relationship are predictable and the prediction efficiency is described by the universal linear dependence on the event size scaled by a power-law function of the lattice volume. Our scaling-based approach to predictability contributes to the theory of SOC and may elucidate the forecast of extremes in the dynamics of such systems with SOC as neuronal networks and earthquakes.

How the theory of self-organized criticality explains punctuated equilibrium in social systems

Punctuated equilibrium is a characteristic of some natural and social systems that occasionally generate bursts of activity at different scales following periods of stagnation of different durations. This phenomenon can be formalized as pink noise, which is an attribute of self-organized criticality (SOC). This paper outlines the main ideas of the SOC theory and the tools for identifying pink noise. It presents examples of punctuated equilibrium found in computer experiments with artificial societies, as well as in historical and political studies. Such examples are found, in particular, in demographic processes, in the development of markets, in the dynamics of electoral choice, in the Internet activity of network communities, in terrorist and criminal activity, and in protest movements in the past and present. The SOC theory explains why avalanche-like social transformations do not always occur under the influence of some major extraordinary factor. Social cataclysms can be caused by the intrinsic properties of systems as well as by micro-level processes and local impulses. Internal transformational potential can be high enough and, at the same time, subtle. The SOC theory describes the ways in which such avalanche conditions can be identified with mathematic rigor and, at the same time, relatively easily.

A Field Study on the Law of Spatiotemporal Development of Rock Movement of Under-Sea Mining, Shandong, China

The phenomenon of rock movement in mining areas has always been a difficult problem in mining engineering, especially under complicated geological conditions. Although the backfilling method mitigates the destruction of the surrounding rock, deformation can still exist in the mining area. In order to ensure the safety of under-sea mining, it is necessary to study the rock movement laws and the mechanisms. This paper focuses on a settlement analysis of the monitoring data of the No. 55 prospecting profile. By analyzing the shape of the settlement curves, the spatial distribution characteristics of settlements of different mining sublevels are summarized. Additionally, the fractal characteristics of the settlement rate under different space–time conditions are studied. We also discuss the relationship between the fractal phenomenon and the self-organized criticality (SOC) theory. The findings are of great theoretical value for the further study of mining settlements to better understand the physical mechanisms of internal movement and rock mass failures through the fractal law of the settlement. Furthermore, elucidating the rock movement law is an urgent task for the safety of seabed mining.

Сигнатура мятежа: как теория СОК позволяет обнаруживать признаки протестной мобилизации в Сети

The purpose of this study is to detect signs of political mobilization in social networks during the period of intensification of internal political struggle (including street actions of the opposition) at the beginning of 2021 in Russia. This study suggests a new quantitative indicator to reveal online communities (networks) characterized by strong user engagement and high level of political mobilization. VK-communities were mapped and analyzed in order to demonstrate the capability of this tool and determine levels of mobilization. The hypothesis of the study was that mobilized communities are able to turn virtual grievances into street protests. The object of study is a set (cluster) of related protest VK-communities (groups/hubs) through which messages from the most influential information donors are brought to public notice on the Internet. The proposed indicator for the calculation of mobilization level is based on the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC). The theory of SOC was initially created to describe a broad class of natural science phenomena, yet it has recently made its way into humanities and social sciences. Timeline of work: from January 10 to April 30, 2021. It was found that some groups (about 10%) in the considered cluster had a high mobilization index during this period. Many of the mobilized groups were very influential: they were both large-scale information donors and highly specialized protest communities. The practical significance of this study lies in improving the methods of monitoring network activity to identify groups that can influence the behavior of their members (both online and on the streets). This study also has theoretical significance related to the accumulation of knowledge about SOC effects in social systems.

Approximate Entropy of Spiking Series Reveals Different Dynamical States in Cortical Assemblies

Self-organized criticality theory proved that information transmission and computational performances of neural networks are optimal in critical state. By using recordings of the spontaneous activity originated by dissociated neuronal assemblies coupled to Micro-Electrode Arrays (MEAs), we tested this hypothesis using Approximate Entropy (ApEn) as a measure of complexity and information transfer. We analysed 60 min of electrophysiological activity of three neuronal cultures exhibiting either sub-critical, critical or super-critical behaviour. The firing patterns on each electrode was studied in terms of the inter-spike interval (ISI), whose complexity was quantified using ApEn. We assessed that in critical state the local complexity (measured in terms of ApEn) is larger than in sub- and super-critical conditions (mean ± std, ApEn about 0.93 ± 0.09, 0.66 ± 0.18, 0.49 ± 0.27, for the cultures in critical, sub-critical and super-critical state, respectively—differences statistically significant). Our estimations were stable when considering epochs as short as 5 min (pairwise cross-correlation of spatial distribution of mean ApEn of 94 ± 5%). These preliminary results indicate that ApEn has the potential of being a reliable and stable index to monitor local information transmission in a neuronal network during maturation. Thus, ApEn applied on ISI time series appears to be potentially useful to reflect the overall complex behaviour of the neural network, even monitoring a single specific location.

Application of the Theory of Self-organized Criticality to the Analysis of the Liberal Agenda in the Press of 1815-1825.

The subject of the research in this paper is the liberal agenda in the Russian press of the pre-Decabrist period. The object of the study is the newspapers published during this period. The novelty of the work lies in the fact that the proposed study searches for pink noise in the data that were obtained from the press of the first quarter of the XIX century. The paper shows that the public consciousness of this period was in a state of self-organized criticality. Previously, the state of self-organized criticality could be found only in systems that arose at the end of the XIX century or later. The difficulty of the problem considered in this paper is that there are almost no mass sources for such an early historical period, and very few of the available ones lend themselves to formalization. The novelty of the conducted research lies in the application of the scientific tool of the theory of self-organized criticality to data having origins in the first quarter of the XIX century. The main conclusion made by the authors of the article is that the public consciousness in the pre-Decabrist period was in a state of self-organized criticality. For the analysis, statistics of publications in newspapers and magazines were collected, which served as a reflection of the liberal agenda relevant to the period of the genesis of the Decembrists. The paper shows that the sequence of publications on liberal information issues in the Russian press in the period 1815-1825 contains pink noise. Fourier analysis was used to determine it in the dynamic series.

Split Hopkinson pressure bar test and cell model of the damage threshold of siltstone

Study the damage threshold of siltstone, we conducted the large-diameter series of split Hopkinson pressure bar cyclic impact tests on siltstone samples. When the damage value of siltstone was 0.16-0.4, increased exponentially with an increase in stress wave amplitude. Damage evolution in siltstone obeys the power-law distribution. This feature is consistent with the self-similarity theory in fractal mechanics. Thus, self-organized criticality theory can be used to determine the rock damage threshold. Combined with the microscopic tectonic features of siltstone, a 2 × 3 cell model was established by based on the renormalization group method, and the failure probability of seven 2 × 3 cell models was established by combining the force transfer coefficients among cell units. The seven damage models, showed that the damage accumulation threshold of siltstone without damage is 0.119, and the damage threshold during failure is 0.4, which is consistent with the SHPB test results. Thus, the cellular model established based on the renormalization group method can be used to study the damage evolution of siltstone.

Time-Dependent Properties of Sandpiles

Bak, Tang, and Wiesenfeld (BTW) proposed the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC), and sandpile models, to connect “1/f” noise, observed in systems in a diverse natural setting, to the fractal spatial structure. We review some of the existing works on the problem of characterizing time-dependent properties of sandpiles and try to explore if the BTW's original ambition has really been fulfilled. We discuss the exact hydrodynamic structure in a class of conserved stochastic sandpiles, undergoing a non-equilibrium absorbing phase transition. We illustrate how the hydrodynamic framework can be used to capture long-ranged spatio-temporal correlations in terms of large-scale transport and relaxation properties of the systems. We particularly emphasize certain interesting aspects of sandpiles—the transport instabilities, which emerge through the threshold-activated nature of the dynamics in the systems. We also point out some open issues at the end.

Size distribution law of earthquake-triggered landslides in different seismic intensity zones

Abstract. The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake in 2013 produced thousands of landslides in the southern region of the Longmen Mountains in China. We conducted field investigations and analyzed remote sensing data to determine the distribution law of earthquake-triggered landslides. The results show a strong negative power law relationship between the size and frequency of landslides in VII, VIII, and IX seismic intensity zones, a weak power law in the X seismic intensity zone, and a lognormal distribution in the XI seismic intensity zone. Landslide density increases with increasing seismic intensity. A sandpile cellular automata model was built under the conceptual framework of self-organized criticality theory to simulate earthquake-induced landslides. Data from the simulations demonstrate that, with increasing disturbance intensity, the dynamical mechanism of the sandpile model changes from a strong power law to a weak power law and then to a lognormal distribution. Results from shaking table experiments of a one-sided slope sandpile show that, for peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the range of 0.075–0.125 g, the relation between the amount and frequency of sand follows a negative power law. For PGA between 0.15 and 0.25 g, the relation obeys a lognormal distribution. This verifies that the abovementioned distribution of earthquake-induced landslides should be a universal law from a physical viewpoint and may apply to other areas. This new perspective may be used to guide the development of an inventory of earthquake-triggered landslides and provide a scientific basis for their prediction.

The sandpile model and empire dynamics

According to the self-organized criticality theory, the sandpile model is built to investigate the evolutionary dynamics of empires in the history of China. The methods of agent-based modeling and simulations are applied to capture empires’ mechanism of rising and falling cycles, and to obtain the observed life cycle pattern of empires in history. Under the self-organized criticality theory, natural systems and human empires systems have similar structures and mechanisms, which makes systems reaches the critical states automatically. Therefore, the rising and falling dynamics of empires can be reflected by the sandpile model as well. With the sandpile modeling and simulations, the optimal solution of parameters can be found, based on which the satisfactory fitness of results can be achieved. Under the optimal solution, we run the simulations for 1000 times to check the fitness and robustness. First, the number of empires can be matched. There were 22 empires in the history of China, and the same number of empires can be obtained via sandpile model simulations, and the amount of empires follows the normal distribution with the mean of 22 empires; Second, the distribution of empire durations follows the power-law distribution, for both simulated and historical empires; Third, for less than 22 simulated empires, we drop empires with tiny durations in history to compare the 19, 20, and 21 pairs of counterparts respectively, and the fitness can be guaranteed as well; finally, for more than 22 empires, we drop simulated empires with tiny durations to compare the 23, 24, and 25 pairs, the matching degree is satisfactory as well. It indicates that multiple simulations have more robust and stable outcomes than one, even the best, simulation.

The Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

This paper is a review of a long-continued research by many Russian and foreign scientists in the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC) in application to seismological data. We mean the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE). This law uses the spatial similarity of earthquake epicenters to derive a generalization of the classical Gutenberg–Richter relation. We discuss why this generalization is needed for practical problems that involve space–time parameters of seismicity, and we point out possible restrictions on practical applications. Several different methods are set forth for estimating the constants in USLE with examples of their practical use.

Online Rebellion: Self-Organized Criticality of Contemporary Protest Movements

The theory of self-organized criticality (SOC) is applicable for explaining powerful surges of protest activity on social media. The objects of study were two protest clusters. The first was a set of Facebook groups that promoted the impeachment of the Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff. The second was a set of groups on the social network Vkontakte that provided support for anti-government rallies in Armenia, referred to as Electric Yerevan. Numerous groups in the examined clusters were functioning in SOC mode during certain periods. Those clusters were able to generate information avalanches—seemingly spontaneous, powerful surges of creation, transmission, and reproduction of information. The facts are presented that supported the assumptions that SOC effects in social networks are associated with mass actions on the streets, including violence. The observations of SOC make it possible to reveal certain periods when the course of a sociopolitical system is least stable.

Safety Regulations and the Uncertainty of Work-Related Road Accident Loss: The Triple Identity of Chinese Local Governments Under Principal-Agent Framework.

This study examines how government safety regulations affect the uncertainty of work-related road accident loss (UWRAL) by considering the multi-identity of local governments in the relationship among the central government, the local governments, and enterprises. Fixed effects panel models and mediation analyses with bootstrapping were conducted to test the hypotheses using Chinese provincial panel data from 2008 to 2014. Given the complexity and nonlinear characteristics of road safety systems, a new approach based on self-organized criticality theory is proposed to measure the uncertainty of road accident loss from a complex system perspective. We find that a regional government with detailed safety work planning (SWP), high safety supervision intensity (SSI), and safety information transparency (SIT) can decrease the UWRAL. Furthermore, our findings suggest that SSI and SIT partially mediate the relationship between the SWP of regional governments and the UWRAL, with 19.7% and 23.6% indirect effects, respectively. This study also provides the government with managerial implications by linking the results of risk assessment to decision making for risk management.

ГРУПОВІ ЗАХИСНІ МЕХАНІЗМИ ЯК ФОРМА РЕАГУВАННЯ НА КОЛЕКТИВНІ ТРАВМИ

Робиться спроба дослідити групу як цілісний суб’єкт і виявити характеристики її захисної поведінки у випадку колективної травми. Авторська концепція підтверджується висновками інших теорій, зокрема теорії самоорганізованої критичності, про неминучість великих міжгрупових конфліктів. Наголошується, що кожна група незалежно від її чисельності прагне захищати від руйнування систему своїх групових цінностей і свою картину світу. Зрозуміло, що колективна травма створює загрозу цінностям групи, адже вони можуть бути зруйновані. Зазначається, що для зменшення травматичної дії група використовує низку захисних механізмів, проте більшість із них не сприяє зціленню від травми, а лише консервує проблему і стає причиною відновлення травми в наступних поколіннях. Цим пояснюється феномен міжпоколінної передачі травматичного досвіду. Розглядаються головні закономірності перебігу колективної травматизації, реагування на колективну травму та опрацювання її наслідків. Обстоюється думка про взаємодію колективних травм між групами різної величини: травма більшої групи стає травмою для менших груп, що входять до її складу, хоча це не завжди усвідомлюється. Зауважено, що досить часто це відбувається у формі паралельних процесів. Звертається увага на те, що травми меншої групи не завжди передаються більшій – на заваді їх поширенню стають захисні механізми. Робиться висновок, що в міжгрупових конфліктах травми отримують обидві сторони – і жертва, і агресор, тож продуктивне розв’язання цих проблем можливе лише за умови подолання наслідків травматизації з обох боків. Наводяться приклади ефективних соціально-психологічних засобів для опрацювання наслідків колективних травм. Зокрема, серед захисних механізмів, які використовує група в умовах колективної травми, механізм сублімації є найбільш продуктивним засобом групового зцілення. Інші захисні механізми дають змогу зменшити силу травматичних переживань, але в майбутньому можуть бути джерелом нових конфліктів і пов’язаних із ними колективних травм.

RATING OF USERS INVOLVEMENT IN THE RADICAL GROUPS IN SOME SOCIAL NETWORKS

This issue is an enclosure to the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC) for studying of the radical protest groups of people in some social networks. The SOC theory needs for the value of level of the users involvement in Facebook communities which support the protest moves in Hong Kong in 2019. There were studied about 35 Facebook pages. The period of studying 01.03 to 23.03.2019. This article claims that the communities with the high level of users involvement are based on self-organized criticality. This item also explains some SOC theory approaches according to which a method of pink noise identity is one of the SOC attribute. It is necessary to say that some protest communities work in SOC regime. In spite of the seeming polycentric of the protest network the connection of reflection comes to a few number of Facebook pages which are the source of information and intension of the protesters so they can become the event’s drivers.